Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Market Price (9/16/2026): $80.55 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Market Price (9/16/2026): $80.55Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 6.8% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81% Key risksCHDN key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden delaying major capital projects, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81% |
| Key risksCHDN key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden delaying major capital projects, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Churchill Downs (CHDN) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Contraction in Net Profit Margin Despite Record Q2 2026 Results.
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported record net revenue of $980 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), an increase of 5% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $477 million, up 6% from the prior year. Diluted EPS of $3.42 also showed an increase from $2.99 in Q2 2025. Despite these positive top-line figures, which included a record-breaking Derby Week contribution, the company's trailing 12-month net profit margin compressed from 15.3% to 13.8%. This margin compression, rather than the headline revenue and EBITDA growth, appears to have been a significant factor in the stock's approximately 6.6% drop immediately following the Q2 2026 earnings release on July 29, 2026.
2. Uncertainty from Strategic Portfolio Reshaping and Near-Term Debt Obligation.
The company announced plans to sell nine regional gaming properties as part of a strategic refocus on its core racing and wagering assets. While intended to streamline operations, this aggressive portfolio reshaping introduces a period of uncertainty for investors regarding execution and future financial impact. Furthermore, while Churchill Downs reduced its net debt by $957 million in the first half of fiscal 2026 to $4,110 million by June 30, 2026, a substantial $600 million of senior notes are due for repayment or refinancing by April 1, 2027, which has been classified as current debt, creating a significant near-term financial obligation.
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Churchill Downs (CHDN) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Contraction in Net Profit Margin Despite Record Q2 2026 Results.
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported record net revenue of $980 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), an increase of 5% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $477 million, up 6% from the prior year. Diluted EPS of $3.42 also showed an increase from $2.99 in Q2 2025. Despite these positive top-line figures, which included a record-breaking Derby Week contribution, the company's trailing 12-month net profit margin compressed from 15.3% to 13.8%. This margin compression, rather than the headline revenue and EBITDA growth, appears to have been a significant factor in the stock's approximately 6.6% drop immediately following the Q2 2026 earnings release on July 29, 2026.
2. Uncertainty from Strategic Portfolio Reshaping and Near-Term Debt Obligation.
The company announced plans to sell nine regional gaming properties as part of a strategic refocus on its core racing and wagering assets. While intended to streamline operations, this aggressive portfolio reshaping introduces a period of uncertainty for investors regarding execution and future financial impact. Furthermore, while Churchill Downs reduced its net debt by $957 million in the first half of fiscal 2026 to $4,110 million by June 30, 2026, a substantial $600 million of senior notes are due for repayment or refinancing by April 1, 2027, which has been classified as current debt, creating a significant near-term financial obligation.
3. Negative Impact of Macroeconomic Headwinds on the Gaming Sector.
The broader gaming and entertainment industry is facing macroeconomic challenges, including persistent inflation which continues to pressure company margins and consumer spending. Executives in the gaming industry also cite wage pressure as a central concern for operations. Additionally, escalating regulatory scrutiny and increasing competition from new forms of gaming, particularly unregulated prediction markets, are seen as significant threats, with 81% of executives viewing prediction markets as a "very significant" threat to the regulated gaming industry. These industry-wide concerns likely contributed to investor apprehension around CHDN.
4. Analyst Price Target Reductions Following Q2 Earnings.
Several financial analysts reduced their price targets for Churchill Downs following the Q2 2026 earnings report. For example, Citizens Jmp decreased their price target from $149.00 to $137.00 on July 31, 2026, and BofA Securities adjusted its price target from $110.00 to $100.00 on August 3, 2026. These downward revisions, despite an overall "Moderate Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus rating from analysts, likely contributed to the negative sentiment and selling pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.6% change in CHDN stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 87.21 | 80.60 | -7.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,946 | 2,992 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 13.8% | 4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 13.6 | -12.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -7.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.1% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.3% | 34.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.3% change in CHDN stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.93 | 80.60 | -12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,926 | 2,992 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 13.8% | 5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.8 | 13.6 | -18.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.7% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.9% | 28.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.0% change in CHDN stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.33 | 80.60 | -22.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,830 | 2,992 | 5.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.2% | 13.8% | -9.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.3 | 13.6 | -20.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 70 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -22.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.8% | 25.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.0% change in CHDN stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.02 | 80.60 | -35.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,191 | 2,992 | 36.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.3% | 13.8% | -15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 13.6 | -47.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 75 | 70 | 7.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -35.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 32.9% | 38.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHDN Return | 24% | -12% | 28% | -1% | -14% | -27% | -13% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -40% | 52% | -10% | -8% | 4% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHDN Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 53% | 48% | 63% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHDN Max Drawdown | -30% | -29% | -28% | -17% | -35% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -51% | -32% | -34% | -40% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PENN, CZR, MGM, BYD, DKNG. See CHDN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHDN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Churchill Downs's stock fell -6.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | CHDN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1047 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Churchill Downs's stock fell -6.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is a diversified entertainment company primarily engaged in racing, online wagering, and casino gaming across the United States. While famously associated with its namesake horse racing track, the company has expanded significantly beyond live racing events to become a broad-based gaming operator.
The company's offerings span three core segments. Its "Live and Historical Racing" segment includes owning and operating pari-mutuel gaming venues, particularly those featuring historical racing machines (HRMs), and providing comprehensive horse racing content like live streams, replays, and statistical data. Churchill Downs also manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for other industry businesses. The "TwinSpires" segment represents its prominent online platform for wagering on horse racing, sports, and iGaming, complemented by retail sportsbooks. Lastly, its "Gaming" segment encompasses traditional casino operations, featuring a substantial number of slot machines, video lottery terminals, and table games across several states.
Churchill Downs primarily serves a wide array of customers, including recreational bettors, horse racing enthusiasts, and casino patrons. Its market reach extends from visitors to its physical racing and casino locations to a national online audience through its digital wagering platform, TwinSpires, catering to those interested in horse racing, sports betting, and various casino games.
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Here are a few analogies for Churchill Downs (CHDN):
- It's like DraftKings or FanDuel, but they also own a network of regional casinos and the world's most famous horse race, the Kentucky Derby.
- Imagine a regional casino operator similar to Boyd Gaming, that also runs a major online betting platform and operates iconic horse racing venues.
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- Live and Historical Racing Operations: Manages and operates physical venues for horse racing, including historical racing machines.
- Online Wagering (TwinSpires): Provides an online platform for betting on horse racing, sports, and iGaming.
- Casino Gaming: Operates physical casinos with slot machines, video lottery terminals, and table games.
- Retail Sports Betting: Offers in-person sports wagering through dedicated retail sportsbooks.
- Horse Racing Data & Media: Delivers streaming video of races, replays, and statistical information for horse racing.
- Pari-Mutuel Wagering System Solutions: Develops and operates wagering systems for other pari-mutuel businesses.
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Churchill Downs (symbol: CHDN) primarily sells its services directly to individual consumers rather than to other companies. Its major customer categories include:
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Horse Racing Patrons and Bettors: This category includes individuals who attend live horse racing events, visit the company's pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with historical racing machines, and those who use the TwinSpires online platform for horse racing wagering, streaming, and handicapping information.
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Casino and Gaming Enthusiasts: These customers frequent Churchill Downs' owned and operated casinos to play slot machines, video lottery terminals, and various table games.
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Sports Bettors: Individuals who place wagers on sporting events either through the TwinSpires online sports betting platform or at the company's retail sportsbooks.
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William C. Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer
William C. Carstanjen was named Churchill Downs Incorporated's Chief Executive Officer in August 2014 and appointed to the Board of Directors in July 2015. He joined CDI in July 2005, serving in various leadership roles including President and Chief Operating Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Chief Development Officer. Before joining CDI, he was an executive with General Electric Company and began his career as an attorney specializing in mergers and acquisitions, corporate finance, and corporate governance at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP. He has been instrumental in leading CDI's diversification strategy into online wagering and regional casino gaming, as well as the growth of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby events.
Marcia A. Dall, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Marcia A. Dall was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated in October 2015. She brings a broad business background as CFO of a large publicly traded company and over 30 years of domestic and international financial experience. Her responsibilities encompass capital management, financial reporting, treasury, investor relations, financial planning and analysis, financial compliance, and enterprise risk management.
William E. Mudd, President and Chief Operating Officer
William E. Mudd was named President and Chief Operating Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated in September 2015. He initially joined CDI in 2007 as the company's Executive Vice President and CFO before being promoted to President and CFO in 2014. His career commenced at General Electric, where he gained significant leadership experience, including serving as CFO of Supply Chain, IT, and Technology Finance for GE's Consumer and Industrial Europe, Middle East, and Africa division.
Bradley K. Blackwell, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Bradley K. Blackwell joined Churchill Downs Incorporated in 2005 and has held numerous roles of increasing responsibility, including Corporate Counsel, Vice President, Legal & Regulatory Affairs for TwinSpires, and Vice President, Legal and Vice President, Operations for CDI. Prior to his tenure at CDI, he served as Assistant General Counsel and Secretary for Michaels Stores, Inc.
Maureen Adams, Executive Vice President, Gaming Operations
Maureen Adams serves as the Executive Vice President, Gaming Operations for Churchill Downs Incorporated. It was announced that she will retire from this position effective December 31, 2025.
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Churchill Downs (CHDN) faces several key risks inherent to the entertainment, racing, and gaming industries, with regulatory challenges and intense competition being particularly prominent.
- Regulatory Risks and Compliance: The company operates in a heavily regulated industry, making it susceptible to stringent and evolving federal, state, and local regulations. A significant and immediate risk involves a dispute with the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) over unpaid fees, which could lead to an unprecedented blocking of interstate simulcast wagering for the Kentucky Derby and other Churchill Downs races. Such a move would materially reduce handle and tax revenue, especially for its online wagering platform, TwinSpires. Beyond this specific conflict, changes in gaming laws, new interpretations of existing regulations, and the need to obtain and maintain various licenses pose ongoing operational and financial challenges. The potential legalization and expansion of iGaming in various states also present a threat to Churchill Downs' land-based historical racing machine (HRM) and casino operations, with the company actively opposing such expansions in some markets and even filing lawsuits.
- Intense Competition and Shifting Consumer Preferences: Churchill Downs operates in a highly competitive landscape, facing rivals from traditional land-based casinos, a growing number of online gaming platforms, and other racing venues. The emergence of new market entrants and the expansion of existing competitors continually vie for market share, potentially eroding Churchill Downs' customer base. There is an ongoing challenge to adapt to changing consumer tastes, as evidenced by a gradual decline in attendance and inflation-adjusted gambling revenues across the horse racing sector. This necessitates continuous innovation and diversification to maintain market leadership and customer engagement.
- Economic Conditions and Discretionary Spending: The company's financial performance is sensitive to broader economic conditions, as consumer confidence and discretionary spending directly influence attendance at its venues and wagering volumes. Economic downturns or uncertainties can lead to reduced engagement in entertainment and gaming activities. Macroeconomic factors, including tariff risks, have already caused Churchill Downs to pause significant capital spending plans aimed at modernization and expansion, which could impact future growth trajectories if these conditions persist.
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The intense and rapidly escalating competition from numerous well-funded new entrants and established players in the online sports betting and iGaming market, directly threatening the market share and profitability of its TwinSpires platform.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Churchill Downs' main products and services:
- Historical Racing Machines (HRMs): The handle for historical horse racing machines (HHRs) in Kentucky was approximately $10.5 billion in fiscal year 2025.
- Online Horse Racing Wagering: The total pari-mutuel wagering handle on United States races, which includes online wagering, was approximately $11.26 billion in 2023. This market size is for the U.S. region.
- Online Sports Betting: The U.S. online sports betting market size was estimated at USD 17.94 billion in 2024. This market size is for the U.S. region.
- iGaming: The U.S. iGaming market is projected to reach total revenues of $26.8 billion in 2025. This market size is for the U.S. region.
- Casino Gaming (Land-based): null
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Churchill Downs (CHDN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion and Development of Historical Racing Machine (HRM) Venues: Churchill Downs is actively expanding its footprint in historical racing machines and new gaming venues. Recent openings include Owensboro Racing and Gaming in Western Kentucky (February 2025), Roseshire Gaming Parlor in Henrico County, Virginia (September 2025), and Marshall Yards Racing & Gaming in Southwestern Kentucky (February 2026). The company also plans to invest in the development of Rockingham Grand Casino in Salem, New Hampshire, with a projected mid-2027 opening, and a new HRM facility in Calvert City, Kentucky. These expansions, coupled with the growth of existing HRM venues in Kentucky and Virginia, are expected to significantly contribute to revenue.
- Enhancements and Increased Revenue from the Kentucky Derby and Racetrack Operations: Churchill Downs is undertaking a multi-year series of capital projects at the Churchill Downs Racetrack, representing the largest expansion and renovation in its history, with an investment of approximately $900 million between 2025 and 2028. These projects, including the Skye Terrace renovation, the Conservatory Project, and the Infield General Admission Project, aim to enhance guest experiences, increase premium hospitality options, and create new ticket upgrade opportunities. These improvements are anticipated to drive incremental adjusted EBITDA from the Kentucky Derby, with expectations of an additional $15 million to $20 million in 2026. Furthermore, a new 7-year contract with NBC and the prime-time broadcast of the Kentucky Oaks starting in 2026 are expected to boost visibility, wagering, and licensing/sponsorship revenues.
- Growth of the TwinSpires Online Wagering Platform and Exacta Business: The company intends to continue growing its core TwinSpires horse racing business by offering a premier wagering experience for horse racing players, particularly VIPs. Additionally, the Exacta business, which provides historical racing machine systems, is expected to see continued growth, driven by both Churchill Downs' owned HRM properties and third-party customers. Churchill Downs also plans to leverage TwinSpires' expertise to become a leading B2B distributor of horse racing content to other online sports wagering platforms, aiming to reach millions of new customers. This strategy is anticipated to generate incremental content fees and wagering revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- A new $500 million share repurchase program was approved in July 2025, replacing a prior $500 million program from March 2025.
- Churchill Downs returned over $456 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during 2025.
- In 2024, the company returned over $218 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
Outbound Investments
- The company completed the acquisition of substantially all of the assets of Peninsula Pacific Entertainment (P2E) for approximately $2.75 billion in November 2022, including assets in Virginia and New York, and the operations of Hard Rock Sioux City in Iowa.
- Churchill Downs acquired Exacta Systems, LLC, a provider of historical horse racing technology, for $250 million in cash in August 2023.
- In July 2025, Churchill Downs agreed to acquire a 90% equity stake in the Casino Salem project in southern New Hampshire for $180 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Project capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $180 million to $220 million in 2026, primarily for Kentucky Derby capital projects and the Rockingham Grand Casino development in Salem, New Hampshire.
- Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending December 2023 peaked at $676.5 million.
- In 2025, maintenance capital was $70 million, and project capital expenditures were $205 million.
Peer Outperformance in Casinos & Gaming
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -23.0% | 88.2% | 73.6% | LINC 303% · PRDO 237% · CVSA 231% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -11.2% | 25.0% | 42.1% | GRBK 194% · PHM 160% · MHO 130% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 9.1% | 36.7% | 6.1% | SIG 30% · FIVE 26% · ASO 14% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -27.0% | -6.1% | 2.8% | HVT 15% · HD 3% · LOW 3% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -12.0% | 6.6% | 1.7% | MUSA 239% · PAG 158% · ORLY 110% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 11.3% | 43.3% | 0.4% | RCL 211% · MAR 143% · HLT 136% |
| Distributors | 4 | -12.5% | -25.6% | -13.3% | ARMK 161% · GPC 22% · LKQ -48% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -7.1% | 19.8% | -13.9% | SGI 44% · LZB 2% · MHK -30% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -16.5% | 27.1% | -17.8% | HRB 117% · FTDR 73% · SCI 42% |
| Restaurants | 35 | -14.2% | -17.3% | -19.1% | EAT 309% · CAKE 141% · RAVE 126% |
| Footwear | 9 | 46.6% | 36.1% | -29.4% | WEYS 160% · SHOO 17% · DECK 6% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -25.1% | -20.8% | -34.8% | GOLF 71% · HAS 12% · BC -21% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -14.0% | -15.1% | -39.0% | MOD 1468% · GTX 285% · CAAS 87% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -10.0% | 5.6% | -39.4% | RL 229% · TPR 227% · ELA 213% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -5.3% | -4.5% | -39.5% | OSW 121% · JAKK 108% · ESCA 27% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | -13.9% | 8.9% | -40.5% | ANF 266% · URBN 131% · ROST 110% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | -7.3% | 12.7% | -43.2% | KEQU 174% · FLXS 168% · HBB 125% |
| Casinos & Gaming ← | 19 | -9.0% | -28.2% | -52.5% | MCRI 113% · RRR 46% · RSI 38% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | -17.4% | 14.1% | -58.1% | DDS 309% · EBAY 58% · AMZN 42% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -16.0% | 17.7% | -58.4% | BBY 6% · GME -58% · UPBD -62% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -77.7% | -49.7% | -72.8% | GM 73% · TSLA 41% · F 37% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -15.5% | -13.0% | -78.5% | AXIL 2216% · GRMN 83% · SONO -57% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -35.7% | -51.3% | -78.7% | TLF 109% · BBW 72% · WINA 72% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 6,691 |
| Op Inc LTM | 770 |
| FCF LTM | 440 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 282 |
| CFO LTM | 733 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 792 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 30.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 6.9 |
| P/EBIT | 2.8 |
| P/E | 0.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.9 |
| Total Yield | 1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -22.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -91.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live and Historical Racing | 1,395 | 1,226 | 1,047 | 615 | 409 |
| Gaming | 1,043 | 1,039 | 969 | 756 | 695 |
| Wagering Services and Solutions | 488 | 470 | 445 | 436 | 451 |
| All Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 41 |
| Total | 2,926 | 2,734 | 2,462 | 1,810 | 1,597 |
| $ Mil | 2012 | 2005 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaming | 46 | ||||
| On-line Business | 32 | ||||
| Racing Operations | 30 | ||||
| Other Investments | -4 | ||||
| Corporate | -7 | ||||
| Arlington Park | 4 | 5 | 9 | -1 | |
| CDSN | 16 | 17 | |||
| Calder Race Course | 7 | 12 | 14 | 13 | |
| Hoosier Park | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Kentucky Operations | 21 | 6 | |||
| Hollywood Park | 7 | 17 | 14 | ||
| Other Operations | -0 | 1 | 6 | ||
| Churchill Downs | 24 | 18 | |||
| Ellis Park | -1 | -0 | |||
| Total | 97 | 49 | 53 | 68 | 55 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live and Historical Racing | 4,143 | 3,873 | 3,345 | 683 | 663 |
| Gaming | 1,954 | 1,921 | 1,824 | 1,003 | 950 |
| All Other | 718 | 688 | 749 | 1,024 | 816 |
| Wagering Services and Solutions | 461 | 474 | 288 | 272 | 257 |
| Total | 7,276 | 6,956 | 6,207 | 2,982 | 2,686 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $80.60 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/29/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $86.65 | $93.44 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -7.0% | -13.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.8% | 34.7% |
| Downside Capture | 111.06 | 51.22 |
| Upside Capture | 46.59 | 22.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 9.4% | 18.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.25 | -0.17 | 0.16 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.72 |
| Up Beta | 0.60 | -1.73 | -0.15 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| Down Beta | 0.15 | 0.45 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Up Capture | 32% | 19% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 28 | 55 | 114 | 368 |
| Down Capture | -44% | 46% | 40% | 42% | 47% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 36 | 72 | 135 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CHDN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -16.1% | 34.6% | -0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -6.6% | 19.5% | -0.47 | 24.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.3% | 12.8% | 0.90 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 29.3% | 0.55 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 20.6% | 1.82 | -6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 13.5% | 0.13 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.1% | 43.8% | -0.79 | 12.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CHDN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -5.9% | 32.8% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.6% | 24.1% | 0.15 | 50.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 49.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.5% | 0.47 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.8% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 42.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 22.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CHDN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | 13.0% | 37.7% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.8% | 22.2% | 0.48 | 58.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 58.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 17.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 53.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.4% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -6.6% | -2.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/22/2026 | 10.1% | 13.7% | -3.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | -6.0% | -5.6% | -8.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | 7.8% | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | -16.2% | -13.9% | -11.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -6.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -3.9% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -13.9% | -13.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -6.6% | -2.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/22/2026 | 10.1% | 13.7% | -3.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | -6.0% | -5.6% | -8.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | 7.8% | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | -16.2% | -13.9% | -11.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -6.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.5% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 4.7% | 5.2% | 9.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| 10/25/2023 | -0.3% | 0.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/26/2023 | -9.7% | -10.4% | -6.0% |
| 4/26/2023 | 14.1% | 17.7% | 11.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| 10/26/2022 | -5.1% | -2.4% | 7.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | -1.4% | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| 4/27/2022 | 6.7% | 5.7% | 0.8% |
| 2/23/2022 | 2.2% | 14.1% | 6.6% |
| 10/27/2021 | -4.8% | -6.6% | -7.9% |
| 7/28/2021 | -0.9% | -2.8% | 7.6% |
| 4/21/2021 | -2.8% | 0.2% | -13.1% |
| 2/24/2021 | -3.0% | -1.0% | -4.0% |
| 10/28/2020 | -3.9% | 3.6% | 15.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -3.9% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -13.9% | -13.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/30/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | -9.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 220.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 240.00 Mil | -18.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 270.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 16, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newbrook Capital Advisors LP | $30.4 Mil | 3.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $14.4 Mil | 0.8% | 36 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $10.4 Mil | 1.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $48.5 Mil | 5.3% | 14 | TRIM -24.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $78.2 Mil | 7.5% | 16 | TRIM -16.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Casinos & Gaming Resources |
| Casino.org News |
| Global Gaming Business |
| CDC Gaming Reports |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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