PENN Entertainment (PENN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.37 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
PENN Entertainment (PENN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.37Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -130% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 380% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -130% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 380% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PENN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
PENN Entertainment (PENN) experienced a significant decline in its stock price, approximately -28%, between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. PENN Entertainment Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations.
The company reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.22, which significantly missed the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.10. Additionally, the reported quarterly revenue of $1.72 billion fell below analysts' expectations of $1.73 billion.
2. Early Termination of the ESPN Bet Partnership.
Concurrent with the Q3 earnings announcement on November 6, 2025, PENN Entertainment announced a mutual decision for an early termination of its U.S. online sports betting agreement with ESPN. This strategic shift means PENN's online sports betting (OSB) marketing exclusivity with ESPN will conclude on December 1, 2025, and the company plans to rebrand its U.S. OSB offering to theScore Bet. The termination involved a $38.1 million payment to ESPN in Q4 2025, along with an additional $5 million for traditional media support.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PENN Return | 238% | -40% | -43% | -12% | -24% | -26% | -43% |
| Peers Return | -4% | 29% | -21% | 23% | -2% | 12% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PENN Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 55% | 42% | 53% | 48% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PENN Max Drawdown | -82% | -48% | -50% | -38% | -44% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -74% | -11% | -37% | -4% | -17% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WYNN, MGM, BYD, HGV, PK. See PENN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PENN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 641.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -88.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 746.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 396.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1844 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WYNN, MGM, BYD, HGV, PK
In The Past
PENN Entertainment's stock fell -86.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -86.5% loss requires a 641.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PENN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302024 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 25.7% | -8.0% | -16.9% |
| 12312022 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -12.4% | -38.0% |
| 09302021 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -41.5% | -62.0% | -63.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302024 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 25.7% | -8.0% | -16.9% |
| 12312022 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -12.4% | -38.0% |
| 09302021 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -41.5% | -62.0% | -63.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PENN Entertainment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,911 |
| Op Inc LTM | 746 |
| FCF LTM | 267 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 340 |
| CFO LTM | 734 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 693 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.9 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 2.1 |
| Net D/E | 2.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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