PENN Entertainment (PENN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.365 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
PENN Entertainment (PENN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.365Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 380% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% | ||
| Key risksPENN key risks include [1] the challenge of gaining significant market share for its pivotal ESPN Bet brand amid intense digital competition and [2] a significant debt burden that amplifies its vulnerability to economic downturns. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 380% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| Key risksPENN key risks include [1] the challenge of gaining significant market share for its pivotal ESPN Bet brand amid intense digital competition and [2] a significant debt burden that amplifies its vulnerability to economic downturns. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PENN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Termination of ESPN BET Partnership
PENN Entertainment announced on November 6, 2025, the early termination of its exclusive U.S. online sports betting agreement with ESPN, effective December 1, 2025. This decision ended a significant alliance where PENN paid ESPN $150 million annually for branding and marketing rights, marking a major strategic shift for the company.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss
On November 6, 2025, PENN Entertainment reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a non-GAAP loss of $0.22 per share, which significantly missed analyst consensus estimates ranging from a loss of $0.03 to $0.10. Additionally, the company's revenue of $1.72 billion fell short of the anticipated $1.73 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PENN Return | 238% | -40% | -43% | -12% | -24% | -29% | -45% |
| Peers Return | 88% | 21% | -33% | 60% | -6% | -5% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PENN Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 50% | 33% | 57% | 52% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PENN Max Drawdown | -82% | -48% | -50% | -38% | -44% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -15% | -45% | -2% | -22% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CZR, MGM, DKNG, BYD, CHDN. See PENN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PENN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 641.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -88.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 746.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 396.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,844 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WYNN, MGM, BYD, HGV, PK
In The Past
PENN Entertainment's stock fell -86.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -86.5% loss requires a 641.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PENN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302024 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 25.7% | -8.0% | -16.9% |
| 12312022 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -12.4% | -38.0% |
| 09302021 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -41.5% | -62.0% | -63.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302024 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 25.7% | -8.0% | -16.9% |
| 12312022 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -12.4% | -38.0% |
| 09302021 | PENN | PENN Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -41.5% | -62.0% | -63.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PENN Entertainment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,141 |
| Op Inc LTM | 833 |
| FCF LTM | 396 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 215 |
| CFO LTM | 884 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 831 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 2.6 |
| P/E | 0.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 2.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -10.4% | -6.5% | -15.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.6% | 4.6% | 20.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -2.7% | 3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.1% | -1.6% | -16.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 5.1% | 10.4% | 7.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | -8.8% | -4.7% | 6.4% |
| 2/15/2024 | -13.8% | -26.2% | -21.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -5.7% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.0% | 21.6% | 88.7% |
| Max Negative | -21.1% | -26.2% | -41.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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