Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $117.37 | Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $117.37Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% | Key risksCHDN key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden delaying major capital projects, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
| Key risksCHDN key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden delaying major capital projects, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CHDN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) has experienced notable developments in its business operations and financial performance in recent quarters leading up to late 2024 and early 2025. While the specific 13.6% stock movement for the future period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, cannot be analyzed, several key factors from recent historical data could generally influence such stock movements.
1. Record Financial Performance in Q4 2024 and Full Year 2024: Churchill Downs reported record fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2024. Net revenue for Q4 2024 was $624.2 million, an 11% increase, and net income attributable to CDI rose 24% to $71.7 million. For the full year 2024, net revenue was $2.7 billion, up 11%, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $1.2 billion. These strong financial results can positively impact investor confidence and stock value.
2. Strategic Expansions and New Venue Openings: The company's expansion efforts significantly contributed to its revenue growth. The Rose Gaming Resort in Northern Virginia, which opened in November 2024, added $19.6 million in Q4 revenue. The Terre Haute Casino Resort in Indiana, which opened in April 2024, also contributed to increased revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. The opening of Owensboro Racing & Gaming in Kentucky in February 2025 further demonstrates ongoing expansion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHDN Return | 42% | 24% | -12% | 28% | -1% | -12% | 74% |
| Peers Return | 127% | 8% | -40% | 52% | -10% | -8% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHDN Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 33% | 53% | 48% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHDN Max Drawdown | -56% | -9% | -28% | -1% | -17% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -65% | -23% | -49% | -10% | -27% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PENN, CZR, MGM, BYD, DKNG. See CHDN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHDN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1059 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ROKU, LBTYA, LVS, FLUT, DKNG
In The Past
Churchill Downs's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/18/2021. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CHDN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | CHDN | Churchill Downs | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.3% | 29.8% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | CHDN | Churchill Downs | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.3% | 29.8% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Churchill Downs
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,141 |
| Op Inc LTM | 833 |
| FCF LTM | 396 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 215 |
| CFO LTM | 884 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 831 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 2.6 |
| P/E | 0.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 2.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 7.8% | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -6.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.5% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| 10/25/2023 | -0.3% | 0.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/26/2023 | -9.7% | -10.4% | -6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.2% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.0% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.8% | 14.1% | 37.5% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -10.5% | -32.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |