Tearsheet

Nextpower (NXT)


Market Price (7/14/2026): $100.25 | Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Nextpower (NXT)


Market Price (7/14/2026): $100.25
Market Cap: $14.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment.

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%

Key risks
NXT key risks include [1] its challenging expansion into the competitive inverter and power conversion market where failures could damage its brand and [2] a heavy revenue concentration in the U.S. Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment.
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
4 Key risks
NXT key risks include [1] its challenging expansion into the competitive inverter and power conversion market where failures could damage its brand and [2] a heavy revenue concentration in the U.S. Show more.

NXT in ETFs

Weight = NXT's share of each fund

VTI0.03%
ITOT0.02%
IWB0.02%
IJH0.47%
VB0.27%
ICLN7.3%
NUSC0.87%
FXN0.76%
+24 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/13/2026

Nextpower (NXT) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Analyst Sentiment Shift and Price Target Reductions.

Nextpower (NXT) experienced downward pressure following changes in analyst sentiment and price target adjustments. For example, Wall Street Zen downgraded Nextpower from a "buy" to a "hold" rating on April 27, 2026. More recently, Susquehanna cut its price target on the stock from $180 to $168, which was followed by an 11.2% drop in shares on July 13, 2026.

2. Bearish Technical Market Signals.

The stock's decline was exacerbated by several bearish technical indicators emerging in Q1 FY2027. The 10-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved out of overbought territory on June 1, 2026, suggesting potential selling pressure. Subsequently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NXT turned negative on June 8, 2026, often indicating a shift to a downtrend. Furthermore, the 10-day moving average crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 18, 2026, serving as a sell signal for many investors.

Show more
Updated on 7/13/2026

Nextpower (NXT) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Analyst Sentiment Shift and Price Target Reductions.

Nextpower (NXT) experienced downward pressure following changes in analyst sentiment and price target adjustments. For example, Wall Street Zen downgraded Nextpower from a "buy" to a "hold" rating on April 27, 2026. More recently, Susquehanna cut its price target on the stock from $180 to $168, which was followed by an 11.2% drop in shares on July 13, 2026.

2. Bearish Technical Market Signals.

The stock's decline was exacerbated by several bearish technical indicators emerging in Q1 FY2027. The 10-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved out of overbought territory on June 1, 2026, suggesting potential selling pressure. Subsequently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NXT turned negative on June 8, 2026, often indicating a shift to a downtrend. Furthermore, the 10-day moving average crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 18, 2026, serving as a sell signal for many investors.

3. Uncertainty from Recent Acquisition and Patent Litigation.

Significant company-specific events also contributed to investor caution. On May 28, 2026, Nextpower announced an agreement to acquire Prevalon Energy LLC for up to $365 million, including $50 million in stock consideration. While potentially strategic, such an acquisition can introduce short-term uncertainties regarding integration and potential dilution. Shortly thereafter, on June 1, 2026, Nextpower filed a patent lawsuit against GameChange Solar, which can create additional market apprehension due to the unpredictable nature and costs of litigation.

4. Persistent Tariff-Related Cost Headwinds.

Despite a generally favorable environment for renewable energy, Nextpower continued to grapple with macroeconomic headwinds, specifically tariff pressures. These tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum were projected to create an approximate $50 million quarterly headwind, directly impacting the company's gross margins and overall profitability in fiscal Q1 2027.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -17.3% change in NXT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267132026Change
Stock Price ($)120.5599.67-17.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,6033,559-1.2%
Net Income Margin (%)16.4%16.5%0.2%
P/E Multiple30.225.3-16.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1481480.0%
Cumulative Contribution-17.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT-17.3% 
Market (SPY)15.2%56.1%
Sector (XLI)11.5%46.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 14.4% change in NXT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257132026Change
Stock Price ($)87.1199.6714.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,3733,5595.5%
Net Income Margin (%)17.1%16.5%-3.6%
P/E Multiple22.425.312.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)148148-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution14.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT14.4% 
Market (SPY)10.2%50.5%
Sector (XLI)16.6%44.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 83.3% change in NXT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257132026Change
Stock Price ($)54.3799.6783.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,9593,55920.3%
Net Income Margin (%)17.2%16.5%-4.3%
P/E Multiple15.525.363.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)145148-2.4%
Cumulative Contribution83.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT83.3% 
Market (SPY)22.3%44.6%
Sector (XLI)23.5%40.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 150.4% change in NXT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 163.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020237132026Change
Stock Price ($)39.8199.67150.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,9023,55987.1%
Net Income Margin (%)6.3%16.5%163.4%
P/E Multiple15.425.364.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)46148-69.1%
Cumulative Contribution150.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT150.4% 
Market (SPY)75.0%32.2%
Sector (XLI)75.1%33.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NXT Return--54%-22%138%28%266%
Peers Return-28%15%-32%-39%40%-7%-55%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NXT Win Rate--55%42%50%43% 
Peers Win Rate38%57%45%42%55%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NXT Max Drawdown----49%-27%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-53%-61%-63%-54%-48% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARRY, FSLR, SHLS, FTCI, ENPH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNXTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-23.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-21.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven168 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-14.3%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven43 days24 days

Compare to ARRY, FSLR, SHLS, FTCI, ENPH

In The Past

Nextpower's stock fell -23.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNXTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-23.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-21.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven168 days18 days

Compare to ARRY, FSLR, SHLS, FTCI, ENPH

In The Past

Nextpower's stock fell -23.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nextpower (NXT)

Nextpower (NXT) is a leading provider of intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions designed for utility-scale and ground-mounted solar projects worldwide. The company's core technology enables solar panels to precisely follow the sun's movement across the sky, significantly optimizing energy production by up to 25% compared to fixed-tilt systems. This sophisticated tracking, coupled with proprietary independent row technology and advanced AI-driven software, also helps lower operating costs and enhances the overall reliability of solar power plants.

Operating within the rapidly expanding global utility-scale solar market, Nextpower capitalizes on the decreasing cost of solar energy and increasing worldwide demand for renewable power and decarbonization efforts. Its solutions are widely adopted by major large-scale solar projects in mature markets and are increasingly gaining traction in developing regions. Nextpower serves a customer base primarily consisting of Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) firms, alongside solar project developers and owners across six continents. With approximately 70 GW of its systems shipped and a strong market leadership position, NXT demonstrates robust growth with firm orders totaling $2.1 billion as of December 2022.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Analogies for Nextpower (NXT):

  • Intel for utility-scale solar farms
  • NVIDIA for solar energy optimization

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Intelligent Independent Row Solar Trackers: Physical systems that enable individual rows of solar panels to move independently, following the sun's movement to optimize energy production in utility-scale solar projects.
  • Integrated Software Solutions: Advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence technologies that further optimize the performance and capabilities of their solar tracker products.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Nextpower (NXT) primarily sells its intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions to other companies.

Its major customers fall into the following categories:

  • Engineering, Procurement and Construction firms (EPCs)
  • Solar project developers
  • Solar project owners

The provided background information does not name specific customer companies.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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Flex Ltd. (FLEX)

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Dan Shugar, Chief Executive Officer and Founder

Dan Shugar founded Nextpower (originally Nextracker) in July 2013 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer since then. His career in the solar industry began in 1988, holding senior leadership positions across multiple solar companies. Prior to Nextpower, he was Chief Executive Officer of Solaria Corporation, a solar panel manufacturing company, from January 2010 to June 2013. Shugar co-founded PowerLight Corporation in 1996, which was later acquired by SunPower Corporation for $332 million in 2007. He also served as President of SunPower Corporation from 2007 to 2009. Nextracker was acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015 for $330 million before its IPO in 2023.

Chuck Boynton, Chief Financial Officer

Chuck Boynton was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Nextpower in March 2024, with his role becoming effective in May 2024. Before joining Nextpower as CFO, he served on the company's Board of Directors from February 2023 to March 2024. Boynton previously held the CFO position at Logitech International S.A. and served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Plantronics, Inc.

Howard Wenger, President

Howard Wenger has served as President of Nextpower since February 2022. He began his career in the solar industry in 1984 and has held numerous leadership and board positions. Wenger also served as President of Solaria Corporation from May 2020 to October 2021.

Marco Miller, COO and Co-founder

Marco Miller is the Chief Operating Officer and a Co-founder of Nextpower.

Bruce Ledesma, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer

Bruce Ledesma has served as Nextpower's Chief Legal & Compliance Officer since January 1, 2025. He previously held various President titles from May 2019 through December 2024. Ledesma was also the co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Roble Capital, LLC, a private investment fund, from June 2013 to July 2014.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks to Nextpower (NXT)

  1. Dependency on Flex Ltd.: Nextpower was acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015 and heavily relies on Flex for crucial aspects of its operations, including "design, manufacturing and supply chain services" through Flex’s global network. Additionally, Flex provides "strong financial backing" that has supported Nextpower's market penetration and optimized supply chain. Any change in Flex's strategic priorities, financial health, or its willingness/ability to continue providing these essential services could significantly impact Nextpower's operations and financial stability.

  2. Intense Competition and the Need to Maintain Technological Leadership: Nextpower operates in a competitive market and prides itself on its "proprietary technology" and "next generation" intelligent independent row tracking system. The company's ability to maintain its leading position and capture market share is dependent on the continued superiority of its technology compared to "linked row, other independent tracker products and fixed-tilt systems." A failure to innovate, or the emergence of more advanced or cost-effective solutions from competitors, could erode its market advantage.

  3. Reliance on Continued Growth and Favorable Market Conditions in the Utility-Scale Solar Sector: Nextpower's business is directly tied to the growth of the utility-scale solar market. This growth is driven by factors such as the declining cost of solar energy, increasing demand for renewable energy, and aggressive decarbonization targets globally. While the background describes a positive outlook, a significant slowdown, reversal, or disruption in these market trends, or changes in governmental policies and incentives supporting solar energy, could adversely affect the demand for Nextpower's solar tracker solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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The addressable market for Nextpower's main products, solar trackers, is estimated to be a $71 billion cumulative opportunity from 2020 to 2030, representing approximately 682 GW of solar capacity installed over that time period. This market size is for the global solar tracking market, excluding China.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Nextpower (NXT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the expanding global solar energy market:

  • Strong and Expanding Backlog: Nextpower has a robust and growing backlog of orders, which stood at over $4.5 billion as of Q2 fiscal year 2025 and subsequently grew to greater than $5 billion by Q3 fiscal year 2026. A significant portion of this backlog is anticipated to convert into revenue within the next eight quarters, providing a solid foundation for future sales.
  • Robust Demand in the Utility-Scale Solar Market: The company is benefiting from the increasing global demand for utility-scale solar projects, fueled by solar energy's position as the lowest-cost and most scalable power generation technology. Nextpower is experiencing strong demand in both its established U.S. market, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of its business, and international markets such as the Middle East and Africa.
  • Diversification through New Products and Services: Nextpower is actively expanding its offerings beyond core solar trackers into new business lines, including frames, foundations, electrical components, and advanced software solutions. The company is already securing customer orders for new products like NX Horizon, NXTR 1.5, NX Horizon Low Carbon Tracker, NX Hail Pro-75, and NX Foundation technologies. Approximately one-third of its 2030 revenue is expected to be generated by these new products and services, including its recently launched agrivoltaics solution.
  • Differentiated Competitive Positioning and Innovation: Nextpower's intelligent independent row tracking systems, coupled with integrated software leveraging advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence, offer superior energy production and reduced operating costs. The company's focus on innovation, including solutions for extreme weather resilience (such as patented hail and wind technologies), enhances its competitive edge and drives customer adoption due to a "flight to quality."
  • Strategic International Expansion: Nextpower is actively expanding its global footprint, notably through ventures like Nextpower Arabia, which is set to supply 2.25 GW of systems to a major Saudi project and aims for up to 12 GW of annual local capacity. The adoption of its solar tracker technology is increasing in developing solar markets, contributing to revenue growth from its operations across the United States, Mexico, Spain, Europe, India, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and Brazil.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions (2023-2026)

Share Repurchases

  • Nextpower's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program on January 27, 2026, authorizing the company to buy back up to $500 million of its Class A common stock over a three-year period.

Share Issuance

  • Nextpower completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in February 2023, issuing 26.6 million shares of Class A common stock at $24 per share, which raised $638 million.

Outbound Investments

  • Nextpower made an aggregate cash consideration of approximately $116.6 million (net of cash acquired) for business acquisitions, including Origami and Fracsun, as reported in its Q3 FY26 results (ended December 31, 2025).
  • The company acquired Bentek Corporation for $78 million in May 2023.
  • In January 2026, Nextpower completed the formation of Nextpower Arabia, a joint venture with Abunayyan Holding, contributing $2.7 million in cash to establish the new entity in the quarter ended December 31, 2025, to accelerate solar plant deployment in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Capital Expenditures

  • Nextpower's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $33.9 million, representing a 450.67% increase from $6.2 million in fiscal year 2024.
  • For the trailing twelve months ending September 26, 2025, capital expenditures were approximately $45.75 million.
  • Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (FY2027) are forecasted to be $65.85 million, primarily focused on increasing capacity, replacing equipment, supporting new product development, improving information systems, and expanding the manufacturing footprint.

Better Bets vs. Nextpower (NXT)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
Mkt Price99.676.12221.039.405.2843.0626.23
Mkt Cap14.80.923.71.60.15.73.6
Rev LTM3,5591,2055,419536961,4001,302
Op Inc LTM697511,72160-3710482
FCF LTM514581,668-77-39145102
FCF 3Y Avg5191175627-4334186
CFO LTM563852,450-40-38191138
CFO 3Y Avg5491371,23246-42401269

Growth & Margins

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
Rev Chg LTM20.3%13.2%27.3%37.8%73.0%-1.6%23.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.4%-9.7%24.7%16.7%5.2%-18.0%10.9%
Rev Chg Q-4.7%-26.1%23.6%74.9%-17.0%-20.6%-10.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.2%-6.1%3.8%12.7%-3.5%-5.0%-2.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM8.4%-57.6%25.3%36.2%27.4%-32.1%16.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg89.8%22.9%231.9%-5.8%22.3%-42.3%22.6%
Op Mgn LTM19.6%4.2%31.8%11.2%-38.4%7.4%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.7%9.5%31.7%12.0%-60.5%10.9%11.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-1.5%1.2%-0.7%-2.9%-3.8%-1.2%
CFO/Rev LTM15.8%7.1%45.2%-7.5%-39.2%13.6%10.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.4%11.0%26.2%11.3%-50.9%25.7%14.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.4%4.8%30.8%-14.5%-40.6%10.4%7.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.5%9.3%-2.3%7.4%-52.5%21.9%8.4%

Valuation

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
Mkt Cap14.80.923.71.60.15.73.6
P/S4.20.84.42.90.94.03.5
P/Op Inc21.218.313.826.3-2.254.519.8
P/EBIT20.7-39.813.527.8-2.638.417.1
P/E25.3-14.014.246.9-1.941.919.8
P/CFO26.311.09.7-39.4-2.229.610.3
Total Yield4.0%-7.2%7.0%2.1%-52.5%2.4%2.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%8.3%-0.7%3.6%-79.8%3.7%3.6%
D/E0.00.80.00.10.30.10.1
Net D/E-0.10.6-0.10.10.2-0.10.0

Returns

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
1M Rtn-18.2%-21.2%-17.3%-9.9%22.2%-21.1%-17.8%
3M Rtn-10.6%-12.6%10.3%40.9%49.2%37.3%23.8%
6M Rtn0.6%-38.9%-7.1%-2.3%-56.4%17.4%-4.7%
12M Rtn61.5%-18.1%36.1%60.7%3.1%2.9%19.6%
3Y Rtn163.7%-68.8%15.5%-62.9%-83.1%-75.8%-65.9%
1M Excs Rtn-14.4%-13.9%-14.7%-1.8%19.7%-18.3%-14.1%
3M Excs Rtn-25.8%-24.8%-1.6%24.4%38.9%27.8%11.4%
6M Excs Rtn3.1%-39.4%-18.8%0.7%-65.3%13.0%-9.1%
12M Excs Rtn39.5%-39.6%14.2%43.0%-17.7%-19.5%-1.8%
3Y Excs Rtn98.2%-139.1%-49.7%-129.1%-152.9%-143.7%-134.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment2,9592,5001,9021,4581,196
Total2,9592,5001,9021,4581,196


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$99.67 
Market Cap ($ Bil)14.8 
First Trading Date02/09/2023 
Distance from 52W High-36.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$124.19$107.06
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-19.7%-6.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility79.2%67.0%
Downside Capture521.18239.58
Upside Capture296.93243.75
Correlation (SPY)55.7%46.0%
NXT Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.623.663.032.562.311.30
Up Beta3.912.142.762.112.111.20
Down Beta3.963.263.572.802.941.29
Up Capture211%463%252%427%470%362%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days9223366132369
Down Capture389%385%337%198%151%106%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days12193059119378

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXT
NXT59.5%66.8%0.96-
Sector ETF (XLI)21.0%16.7%0.9741.3%
Equity (SPY)20.8%12.6%1.2346.3%
Gold (GLD)20.0%27.9%0.6428.3%
Commodities (DBC)27.6%18.9%1.16-7.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.3%13.9%0.661.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.8%42.7%-1.2819.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXT
NXT24.6%60.9%0.76-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.5%17.6%0.6034.8%
Equity (SPY)13.0%17.1%0.5932.9%
Gold (GLD)17.0%18.3%0.7514.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.8%19.5%0.297.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%18.9%0.0617.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.6%53.5%0.4413.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXT
NXT11.6%60.9%0.76-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.3%20.0%0.6334.8%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7332.9%
Gold (GLD)11.3%16.1%0.5714.6%
Commodities (DBC)6.3%18.0%0.287.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%20.7%0.2117.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.7%66.2%0.9813.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6152026-16.3%
Average Daily Volume5.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity148.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares4.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/15/2026
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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/12/20268.8%1.4%-4.5%
1/27/202613.3%13.2%0.9%
10/23/20258.7%9.7%-3.6%
7/29/2025-9.3%-13.7%4.3%
5/14/202511.9%5.1%10.3%
1/28/202524.3%25.6%13.6%
10/30/202424.6%30.2%19.4%
8/1/2024-10.4%-14.2%-13.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10109
# Negative334
Median Positive12.2%11.4%13.6%
Median Negative-9.3%-13.7%-4.1%
Max Positive24.8%30.2%40.7%
Max Negative-10.4%-14.2%-13.2%
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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/12/20268.8%1.4%-4.5%
1/27/202613.3%13.2%0.9%
10/23/20258.7%9.7%-3.6%
7/29/2025-9.3%-13.7%4.3%
5/14/202511.9%5.1%10.3%
1/28/202524.3%25.6%13.6%
10/30/202424.6%30.2%19.4%
8/1/2024-10.4%-14.2%-13.2%
5/14/20246.9%9.4%40.7%
1/31/202424.8%22.4%26.8%
10/25/2023-1.8%-9.1%4.4%
7/26/202312.4%6.2%-2.5%
5/10/20236.6%17.1%21.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10109
# Negative334
Median Positive12.2%11.4%13.6%
Median Negative-9.3%-13.7%-4.1%
Max Positive24.8%30.2%40.7%
Max Negative-10.4%-14.2%-13.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/19/202610-K
12/31/202501/30/202610-Q
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/22/202510-K
12/31/202401/31/202510-Q
09/30/202411/01/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/28/202410-K
12/31/202302/07/202410-Q
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202306/09/202310-K
12/31/202203/09/202310-Q
09/30/202202/10/2023424B4
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Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/19/202610-K
12/31/202501/30/202610-Q
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/22/202510-K
12/31/202401/31/202510-Q
09/30/202411/01/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/28/202410-K
12/31/202302/07/202410-Q
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202306/09/202310-K
12/31/202203/09/202310-Q
09/30/202202/10/2023424B4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/12/2026

Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2027 Revenue3.80 Bil3.95 Bil4.10 Bil14.1% Higher NewGuidance: 3.46 Bil for 2026
2027 GAAP Net Income501.00 Mil530.00 Mil559.00 Mil-0.5% Lower NewGuidance: 532.50 Mil for 2026
2027 GAAP Diluted EPS3.193.383.56-3.0% Lower NewGuidance: 3.48 for 2026
2027 Adjusted EBITDA825.00 Mil862.50 Mil900.00 Mil5.2% Higher NewGuidance: 820.00 Mil for 2026
2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS4.214.44.592.1% Higher NewGuidance: 4.31 for 2026

Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue3.42 Bil3.46 Bil3.50 Bil2.6% RaisedGuidance: 3.38 Bil for 2026
2026 GAAP Net Income525.00 Mil532.50 Mil540.00 Mil3.6% RaisedGuidance: 514.00 Mil for 2026
2026 GAAP Diluted EPS3.433.483.533.6% RaisedGuidance: 3.36 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA810.00 Mil820.00 Mil830.00 Mil3.1% RaisedGuidance: 795.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS4.264.314.364.0% RaisedGuidance: 4.14 for 2026

Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue3.27 Bil3.38 Bil3.48 Bil1.5% RaisedGuidance: 3.33 Bil for 2026
2026 GAAP Net Income499.00 Mil514.00 Mil529.00 Mil-1.1% LoweredGuidance: 519.50 Mil for 2026
2026 GAAP Diluted EPS3.263.363.46-1.0% LoweredGuidance: 3.4 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA775.00 Mil795.00 Mil815.00 Mil1.9% RaisedGuidance: 780.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS4.044.144.250.7% RaisedGuidance: 4.12 for 2026

Insider Activity

Updated 6/23/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Boynton, Charles DChief Financial OfficerDirectSell6022026151.794,500683,05554,416,715Form
2Miller, Nicholas MarcoChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6012026156.0022,4273,498,61229,046,264Form
3Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell5272026130.2562,6708,162,61455,546,286Form
4Shugar, Daniel SChief Executive OfficerDirectSell5272026134.7226,0773,513,093125,480,768Form
5Ledesma, BruceChief Legal & Compliance OfcDirectSell5272026134.723,248437,57133,158,634Form
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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Boynton, Charles DChief Financial OfficerDirectSell6022026151.794,500683,05554,416,715Form
2Miller, Nicholas MarcoChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6012026156.0022,4273,498,61229,046,264Form
3Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell5272026130.2562,6708,162,61455,546,286Form
4Shugar, Daniel SChief Executive OfficerDirectSell5272026134.7226,0773,513,093125,480,768Form
5Ledesma, BruceChief Legal & Compliance OfcDirectSell5272026134.723,248437,57133,158,634Form
6Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell5262026121.029,0511,095,35260,453,242Form
7Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell5222026127.3216,0902,048,57964,752,660Form
8Miller, Nicholas MarcoChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5222026127.3224,5113,120,74128,205,582Form
9Shugar, Daniel SChief Executive OfficerDirectSell3092026105.1759,4566,253,22378,495,433Form
10Shugar, Daniel SChief Executive OfficerDirectSell3062026101.0439,8924,030,68859,107,390Form
11Boynton, Charles DChief Financial OfficerDirectSell3042026100.454,500452,02528,734,627Form
12Watkins, William DDirectSell2022026118.575,000592,8501,396,399Form
13Bennett, David PChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1212202588.0833,7252,970,49811,535,573Form
14Boynton, Charles DChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1202202589.334,500401,98525,955,635Form
15Watkins, William DDirectSell1119202591.8510,000918,5201,541,001Form
16Shugar, Daniel SChief Executive OfficerDirectSell1118202591.2847,7434,357,84657,037,461Form
17Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell930202575.005,217391,27530,677,925Form
18Boynton, Charles DChief Financial OfficerDirectSell915202567.214,500302,44519,830,915Form
19Bennett, David PChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell915202567.0829,1781,957,26011,047,539Form
20Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell820202570.005,703399,21028,997,920Form
21Ledesma, BruceChief Legal & Compliance OfcDirectSell811202556.246,980392,55511,011,201Form
22Watkins, William DTrustSell805202556.7910,000567,900435,352Form
23Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell703202565.005,216339,04027,297,335Form
24Miller, Nicholas MarcoChief Operating OfficerDirectSell702202554.2794651,3399,174,561Form
25Miller, Nicholas MarcoChief Operating OfficerDirectSell626202557.325,588320,3049,744,400Form
26Miller, Nicholas MarcoChief Operating OfficerDirectSell613202559.6569,7744,162,08410,451,797Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 14, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
One Fin Capital Management LP$36.2 Mil13.9%19Hold13F
Palo Duro Investment Partners, LP$7.6 Mil1.5%29ADD +29.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Palo Duro Investment Partners, LP$7.6 Mil1.5%29ADD +29.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda$21.3 Mil4.0%46Exited13F
Hel Ved Capital Management Ltd$6.2 Mil2.1%49Exited13F
Nishkama Capital, LLC$6.0 Mil0.8%49Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
One Fin Capital Management LP$36.2 Mil13.9%19Hold13F
Palo Duro Investment Partners, LP$7.6 Mil1.5%29ADD +29.1%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/13/2026