First Solar (FSLR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $254.9 | Market Cap: $27.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
First Solar (FSLR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $254.9Market Cap: $27.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FSLR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Financial Performance and Upbeat Guidance.
First Solar reported robust second-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed Wall Street's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, leading to an initial surge in the stock price. This momentum continued with the announcement of third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025. While Q3 EPS slightly missed estimates, revenue reached $1.59 billion, exceeding expectations and representing a significant 79.7% year-over-year increase. The company also raised its full-year 2025 guidance for both revenue and diluted EPS, signaling strong growth and operational efficiency which boosted investor confidence.
2. Favorable Government Policies and Tax Credits.
An announcement from the U.S. Treasury and IRS in August 2025, which altered tax credit guidance for clean energy projects, positively impacted FSLR shares, causing them to jump by 13% on August 15, 2025. First Solar continues to benefit significantly from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides generous tax credits for U.S.-made solar panels and offers protection from international competition, strengthening the company's market position.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSLR Return | 77% | -12% | 72% | 15% | 2% | 49% | 369% |
| Peers Return | 268% | -19% | 3% | -30% | -49% | 62% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSLR Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 27% | 43% | 28% | 23% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSLR Max Drawdown | -46% | -30% | -30% | -12% | -19% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -33% | -28% | -50% | -51% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RUN, ENPH, SEDG, CSIQ, AMBQ. See FSLR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSLR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 667 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 256.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to RUN, ENPH, SEDG, CSIQ, AMBQ
In The Past
First Solar's stock fell -49.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -49.3% loss requires a 97.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FSLR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 72.6% | 66.1% | -9.1% |
| 10312024 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -34.9% | 37.3% | -38.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 72.6% | 66.1% | -9.1% |
| 10312024 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -34.9% | 37.3% | -38.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for First Solar
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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