MSA Safety (MSA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $163.19 | Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Office Services & Supplies
MSA Safety (MSA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $163.19Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Office Services & Supplies
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Industrial Robotics, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Industrial Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why MSA Safety's stock (MSA) moved by -4.1% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Revised Sales Outlook and Fire Service Headwinds: Despite reporting strong third-quarter results, MSA Safety maintained a cautious low-single-digit organic sales growth outlook for 2025. This was partly attributed to "timing headwinds in the fire service" caused by the delayed announcement of the annual Assistance to Firefighter Grants program in the U.S. and the U.S. government shutdown, which are expected to push some fourth-quarter sales into 2026.
2. Margin Pressures from Macro Factors: The company's third-quarter margins faced pressure from ongoing inflation, tariffs, and transactional foreign exchange rates, despite the implementation of pricing and productivity initiatives to mitigate these impacts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSA Return | 20% | 2% | -3% | 19% | -1% | 0% | 40% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 10% | -10% | 18% | 35% | 6% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 55% | 42% | 43% | 58% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSA Max Drawdown | -31% | -6% | -27% | -11% | -5% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -6% | -34% | -10% | -12% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HON, MMM, AXON, DD, GNTX. See MSA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1838 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HON, MMM, AXON, DD, GNTX
In The Past
MSA Safety's stock fell -36.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -36.6% loss requires a 57.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 12312018 | MSA | MSA Safety | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 12.5% | 36.1% | -2.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 12312018 | MSA | MSA Safety | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 12.5% | 36.1% | -2.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MSA Safety
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 168.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,038 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,303 |
| FCF LTM | 893 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 517 |
| CFO LTM | 1,340 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,259 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.6 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 22.9 |
| P/CFO | 18.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Service | 684 | 579 | |||
| Detection | 635 | 530 | |||
| Industrial Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and Other | 469 | 419 | |||
| Breathing Apparatus | 322 | 329 | 318 | ||
| Fall Protection | 118 | 103 | 126 | ||
| Firefighter Helmets & Protective Apparel | 204 | 162 | 178 | ||
| Fixed Gas & Flame Detection | 299 | 287 | 293 | ||
| Industrial Head Protection | 144 | 126 | 145 | ||
| Other | 151 | 198 | 173 | ||
| Portable Gas Detection | 163 | 143 | 169 | ||
| Total | 1,788 | 1,528 | 1,400 | 1,348 | 1,402 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |