Yum Brands (YUM)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $161.16 | Market Cap: $43.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Yum Brands (YUM)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $161.16Market Cap: $43.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.0x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x Key risksYUM key risks include [1] the persistent underperformance and declining relevance of its Pizza Hut brand and [2] significant exposure to geopolitical and regulatory instability stemming from its heavy business concentration in China. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.0x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x |
| Key risksYUM key risks include [1] the persistent underperformance and declining relevance of its Pizza Hut brand and [2] significant exposure to geopolitical and regulatory instability stemming from its heavy business concentration in China. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Yum Brands (YUM) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Performance Exceeding Analyst Expectations.
Yum Brands reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.56 for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.47 by $0.09. Quarterly revenue increased by 3.8% year-over-year to $2.05 billion, generally meeting or slightly exceeding analyst projections. This earnings beat, despite some revenue metrics slightly missing certain estimates, indicated solid financial health and contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. Completion of Pizza Hut Divestiture Streamlining Operations and Enhancing Focus.
Yum Brands completed the strategic divestiture of its Pizza Hut business during the period, selling Pizza Hut in mainland China to Yum China on August 7, 2026, and the remaining Pizza Hut operations (excluding mainland China) to LongRange Capital on September 1, 2026. These transactions generated approximately $2.7 billion in aggregate proceeds, with net proceeds of about $2.4 billion and a pre-tax gain of approximately $1.7 billion. This move allows Yum Brands to operate as a more focused company, concentrating on its core KFC, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, and freed up capital, a portion of which was used to repay a $675 million revolver balance and repurchase $543 million in stock.
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Yum Brands (YUM) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Performance Exceeding Analyst Expectations.
Yum Brands reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.56 for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.47 by $0.09. Quarterly revenue increased by 3.8% year-over-year to $2.05 billion, generally meeting or slightly exceeding analyst projections. This earnings beat, despite some revenue metrics slightly missing certain estimates, indicated solid financial health and contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. Completion of Pizza Hut Divestiture Streamlining Operations and Enhancing Focus.
Yum Brands completed the strategic divestiture of its Pizza Hut business during the period, selling Pizza Hut in mainland China to Yum China on August 7, 2026, and the remaining Pizza Hut operations (excluding mainland China) to LongRange Capital on September 1, 2026. These transactions generated approximately $2.7 billion in aggregate proceeds, with net proceeds of about $2.4 billion and a pre-tax gain of approximately $1.7 billion. This move allows Yum Brands to operate as a more focused company, concentrating on its core KFC, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, and freed up capital, a portion of which was used to repay a $675 million revolver balance and repurchase $543 million in stock.
3. Rapid Recovery and Momentum in Taco Bell U.S. Sales.
Despite an industry-wide food safety issue (cyclospora outbreak) that led to a 4% decline in Taco Bell U.S. same-store sales during fiscal Q3 2026, the brand demonstrated a significant and rapid recovery. Management reported that Taco Bell U.S. sales began outpacing the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) industry after the end of September. Further, quarter-to-date comparable sales for Taco Bell U.S. improved to approximately +1%, accelerating to roughly +3% over the trailing four weeks as of early November. The increasing adoption of Voice AI in drive-throughs, deployed in over 900 Taco Bell restaurants and targeting 1,500 by year-end 2026, also contributed to improved customer satisfaction and a 1.5% sales increase from higher average checks.
4. Robust Global Unit Development and Strategic Modernization for KFC.
KFC delivered strong global unit development, achieving "record Q3 global gross unit development." The KFC division alone opened 878 new restaurants across 66 countries in fiscal Q3 2026, contributing to a 7% increase in total Yum! Brands' unit count and surpassing 35,000 KFC restaurants worldwide. The company anticipates 2026 to be a record year for KFC development, exceeding its long-term algorithm of 5% unit growth excluding Pizza Hut. These expansion efforts, coupled with ongoing modernization initiatives including refreshed brand identity and menu innovation, underscore KFC's sustained growth trajectory.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.7% change in YUM stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 91.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.51 | 161.14 | 5.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,486 | 8,797 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 39.1% | 91.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 12.7 | -47.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 277 | 272 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUM | 5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 1.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.9% change in YUM stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 158.08 | 161.14 | 1.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,214 | 8,797 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.0% | 39.1% | 106.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.3 | 12.7 | -55.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 272 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUM | 1.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -0.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 23.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.9% change in YUM stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 135.58 | 161.14 | 18.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,907 | 8,797 | 11.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.1% | 39.1% | 116.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.4 | 12.7 | -51.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 272 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUM | 18.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 3.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 22.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.3% change in YUM stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.04 | 161.14 | 41.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,991 | 8,797 | 25.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.3% | 39.1% | 92.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.6 | 12.7 | -43.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 281 | 272 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUM | 41.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 22.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 27.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YUM Return | 30% | -6% | 4% | 5% | 15% | 8% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -17% | 24% | -5% | -5% | -13% | 9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YUM Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 42% | 55% | 45% | 45% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YUM Max Drawdown | -9% | -23% | -18% | -12% | -14% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -33% | -21% | -27% | -27% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MCD, QSR, DPZ, CMG, PZZA. See YUM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YUM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 117 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -12.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Yum Brands's stock fell -4.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | YUM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 117 days | 62 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 475 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Yum Brands's stock fell -4.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Yum Brands (YUM)
Yum Brands (YUM) is a prominent global quick-service restaurant (QSR) company that develops, operates, and franchises a vast network of restaurant units worldwide. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, the company has established a significant international presence, extending its operations across approximately 157 countries and territories.
The company's business revolves around its portfolio of globally recognized restaurant brands, each specializing in distinct food categories. Its main brands include KFC, famous for its chicken; Pizza Hut, a leading pizza chain; Taco Bell, offering Mexican-style food; and The Habit Burger Grill, known for made-to-order chargrilled burgers and sandwiches. Yum Brands primarily leverages a franchising model, allowing independent operators to run these branded restaurants while benefiting from the company's established brand equity and operational support.
Yum Brands serves a massive and diverse global customer base, catering to individuals and families seeking convenient, affordable, and branded quick-service meal options. With an expansive network comprising tens of thousands of units for each of its major brands, its primary market encompasses the worldwide consumer demand for accessible and well-known fast-food experiences.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Yum Brands:
The Procter & Gamble (P&G) of fast food.
Like a Unilever for restaurant chains.
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- KFC (Kentucky Fried Chicken): Offers a variety of chicken products and related fast food items.
- Pizza Hut: Provides a wide range of pizzas, pasta, and other Italian-American cuisine.
- Taco Bell: Specializes in Mexican-style fast food, including tacos, burritos, and nachos.
- The Habit Burger Grill: Features made-to-order chargrilled burgers, sandwiches, and other casual dining options.
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Yum Brands (YUM) sells primarily to individuals through its network of quick-service restaurants, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and The Habit Burger Grill.
The company serves several categories of customers:
- Convenience-seeking individuals: Customers who prioritize speed, ease of access, and a quick meal solution for lunch, dinner, or snacks, often while on the go or when time is limited.
- Families and groups: Customers looking for accessible, generally affordable, and diverse meal options that can satisfy multiple preferences within a family or group setting.
- Value-conscious consumers: Customers whose primary motivation is to find affordable meals, deals, and promotions that offer good value for their money.
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- PepsiCo (PEP)
- Sysco Corporation (SYY)
- US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)
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Chris Turner, Chief Executive Officer
Chris Turner assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer of Yum! Brands on October 1, 2025. Previously, he served as the company's Chief Financial & Franchise Officer, holding the CFO position since 2019 and expanding his role to include Chief Franchise Officer in 2024. Before joining Yum! Brands in 2019, Turner held senior leadership positions at PepsiCo, where he managed PepsiCo's retail and e-commerce business with Walmart across the U.S. and over 25 international markets. His earlier career included over 13 years as a partner at McKinsey & Company, providing advisory services to major companies in various sectors such as retail, restaurants, consumer packaged goods, airlines, tech, and media. Turner holds an MBA from Stanford University and a bachelor's degree in industrial engineering from the University of Arkansas. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
Ranjith Roy, Chief Financial Officer
Ranjith Roy currently serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Yum! Brands, Inc.
Tracy Skeans, Chief Operating Officer and Chief People & Culture Officer
Tracy Skeans is the Chief Operating Officer and Chief People & Culture Officer for Yum! Brands, Inc., a position she was promoted to in February 2021, while retaining her Chief People Officer responsibilities. She joined the company in 2000 and has a significant background in finance, including roles in strategic planning, asset development, and accounting at Pizza Hut before moving into HR leadership. Skeans previously served as President of Pizza Hut International, overseeing a business with over 5,900 restaurants across more than 85 countries. As Chief Transformation & People Officer starting in 2016, she was instrumental in the company's transformation to a pure-play franchisor in 2019 and played a central role in navigating the COVID-19 pandemic and integrating The Habit Burger Grill. Prior to Yum! Brands, Skeans worked in an international treasury role at Union Switch & Signal and as a senior auditor with Price Waterhouse LLP. She serves on the Board of Directors for Brown-Forman and the Women's Foodservice Forum.
Sean Tresvant, Chief Executive Officer, Taco Bell Division, and Chief Consumer Officer
Sean Tresvant holds the dual role of Chief Executive Officer of the Taco Bell Division and Chief Consumer Officer for Yum! Brands, Inc.
Erika Burkhardt, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Erika Burkhardt is the Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary of Yum! Brands.
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The key risks to Yum! Brands' business include its significant exposure to international markets, particularly China, the critical importance of food safety and brand reputation, and its heavy reliance on the performance and execution of its franchisees.
- Global Operations and Geopolitical/Economic Risks, particularly China: Yum! Brands operates extensively across international markets, with a substantial portion of its business, notably its KFC division, concentrated in mainland China through its largest franchisee, Yum China. This global footprint subjects the company to a range of risks, including political instability, fluctuating economic conditions (such as consumer spending and inflation), uncertainties in the regulatory environment, and heightened data and cybersecurity risks within China. Furthermore, broad global operations expose Yum! Brands to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, which can adversely impact financial results. The company is also sensitive to macroeconomic conditions globally, including inflationary pressures and consumer discretionary spending.
- Food Safety, Quality, and Reputation Risk: As a quick-service restaurant company, Yum! Brands is highly vulnerable to food safety incidents, which can quickly lead to negative publicity, consumer complaints, litigation, and governmental investigations. Past food quality scandals, particularly in China, have demonstrated the potential for significant adverse effects on sales and brand reputation. The company's reliance on a vast network of third-party suppliers and delivery aggregators further amplifies the risk of food safety issues occurring outside of its direct control. Beyond food safety, issues such as workplace violence and safety at its restaurants can also lead to legal liabilities and reputational damage.
- Reliance on Franchisees and Execution Risk: A fundamental aspect of Yum! Brands' business model is its extensive franchising, with approximately 97% to 98% of its restaurants operated by independent franchisees. Consequently, the company's growth, brand consistency, and overall success are heavily dependent on the operational efficiency, financial health, and adherence to brand standards by its franchisees. Challenges such as inconsistent execution of brand strategies (e.g., new product launches), financial distress among franchisees, or labor shortages impacting franchisee operations can directly affect Yum! Brands' operating results and compromise the integrity of its brands.
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The rise of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands represents a clear emerging threat. These businesses operate without traditional dining rooms, focusing solely on delivery. They leverage technology to create multiple virtual brands from a single kitchen, offering greater flexibility, lower overhead costs, and rapid market entry compared to established quick-service restaurant models. This trend can potentially erode market share from traditional QSRs like Yum Brands by offering a competitive alternative focused on convenience and delivery efficiency, challenging the long-standing advantage of physical restaurant footprints and dine-in experiences.
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For Yum Brands (symbol: YUM), the addressable markets for its main products and services are sized as follows:
- Chicken: The global fried chicken market reached a value of approximately $93.33 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $130.63 billion by 2029.
- Pizza: The global pizza market was valued at approximately $155.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $210 billion by 2035. Separately, the global pizza industry represented $160 billion in sales in 2020.
- Burgers/Sandwiches: The burgers/sandwiches segment accounted for a revenue of $252.53 billion in 2021 within the global fast food market, representing the largest segment with a 42.56% revenue share in 2021. In the U.S. alone, consumers consume about 50 billion burgers each year.
- Mexican-style food: The global Mexican food market size was valued at $21.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately $44.83 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2026 to 2035. North America accounted for the largest share of the Mexican food market in 2025. Additionally, the broader Asian/Latin American food segment within the global fast food market was valued at $155.5 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach $203.6 billion by 2027.
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Yum! Brands (YUM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategic initiatives:
- Accelerated Unit Growth and International Expansion: Yum! Brands plans to open 2,500-3,000 net new restaurants annually, with a particular focus on international markets, especially for KFC and Taco Bell. KFC is a primary driver in emerging economies, with ambitions for 10,000 stores in China, while Taco Bell aims to expand its international presence from 1,200 to over 2,000 locations by 2027. The company targets approximately 5% annual unit growth.
- Enhanced Digital Sales and Technology Integration: Digital capabilities are a significant sales driver, with digital sales approaching $8 billion (Q1 2024) and surpassing $11 billion (Q4 2025), representing nearly 60% of system sales. The global rollout of the "Byte by Yum!" platform, coupled with investments in loyalty ecosystems and AI-driven personalized marketing, is expected to boost sales and improve operational efficiency across its brands.
- Same-Store Sales Growth through Menu Innovation and Customer Focus: The company anticipates low to mid-single-digit same-store sales growth. This will be achieved by continually battling for the future consumer, focusing on new menu innovation, and engaging the next generation of customers. Examples include KFC's rollout of the KWENCH beverage platform and the development of numerous scalable sauce options. Taco Bell U.S. specifically achieved 7% same-store sales growth in Q4 2025.
- Improved Franchisee Economics: Yum! Brands' growth strategy is rooted in its asset-light franchising model, which generates high-margin, recurring revenue streams. By leveraging its global scale, supply-chain efficiencies, and the Byte platform to enhance store-level profitability for franchisees, the company fosters a self-reinforcing growth loop that encourages further unit development and robust operational performance.
- Strategic Optimization of Pizza Hut: An ongoing strategic review and modernization program for Pizza Hut, including targeted closures of underperforming U.S. units, aims to stabilize the brand and align it for future performance. This "Hutt Forward plan" is designed to optimize Pizza Hut's market position, reducing its drag on overall revenue and contributing to a healthier portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- Yum! Brands authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $2 billion in May 2024, set to begin on July 1, 2024, and continue through December 31, 2026.
- In September 2022, the company's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase authorization of up to $2.0 billion.
- The company's annual share buybacks were $552 million in 2025, $441 million in 2024, and $50 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Yum! Brands has generally been reducing its shares outstanding through repurchases. For instance, shares outstanding declined by 1.4% in 2025 from 2024, and by 1.72% in 2023 from 2022.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2021, Yum! Brands acquired Dragontail Systems for $72.6 million, a provider of delivery and takeaway solutions services.
- The acquisition of 128 Taco Bell restaurants was completed by Yum! Brands in 2025.
- The 2020 acquisition of The Habit Burger Grill for approximately $375 million positioned it as a platform for growth in the fast-casual segment, with plans to scale significantly through franchising.
Capital Expenditures
- Yum! Brands expects to invest approximately $400 million in capital expenditures in 2026.
- Annual capital expenditures were -$371 million in 2025, -$257 million in 2024, and -$285 million in 2023. (Note: negative values often represent cash outflows).
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on high-return unit development and technology investments, aligning with its asset-light franchisor model. The company is also integrating AI into operations to enhance efficiency and customer experience.
Peer Outperformance in Restaurants
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | Yum Brands | 7.7% | 12.7x | 10.2% | 36.0% | 39.9% | — |
| CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | 5.1% | 24.0x | 129.1% | 276.9% | 157.5% | +118pp |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 7.5% | 21.7x | 31.2% | 68.8% | 72.9% | +33pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -14.6% | 32.4% | 41.0% | CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 2.8% | 29.0% | 29.7% | PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -4.5% | 18.3% | 11.3% | MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 19.1% | 65.4% | 7.0% | RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 3.8% | 76.0% | -1.2% | SGI 50% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.5% | 83.0% | -15.7% | DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16% |
| Restaurants ← | 36 | 1.5% | -3.8% | -24.2% | EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 32.8% | 80.3% | -24.5% | BBY -3% · GME -53% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -12.1% | 33.3% | -25.5% | FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -6.7% | -16.6% | -26.0% | ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -18.0% | -5.2% | -34.4% | GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 16.8% | 5.3% | -39.5% | OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 36.3% | 16.7% | -40.3% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -4.4% | 16.3% | -45.7% | EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -5.5% | 2.6% | -48.8% | ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.5% | -25.6% | -48.8% | GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -25.1% | -16.3% | -51.8% | RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 14.6% | 20.9% | -53.7% | TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -5.3% | -10.5% | -57.7% | ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -57.1% | -43.4% | -70.5% | GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.6% | -31.4% | -80.5% | GRMN 122% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 119.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 35.2 |
| Rev LTM | 9,286 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,253 |
| FCF LTM | 1,545 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,428 |
| CFO LTM | 1,939 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,746 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 35.2 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 3,542 | 3,099 | 2,830 | 2,834 | 2,793 |
| Taco Bell Division | 3,095 | 2,860 | 2,641 | 2,437 | 2,238 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 1,013 | 1,008 | 1,019 | 1,004 | 1,028 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | 570 | 600 | 586 | 567 | 525 |
| Unallocated Franchise and property revenues | -7 | -18 | |||
| Total | 8,213 | 7,549 | 7,076 | 6,842 | 6,584 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 1,503 | 1,363 | 1,304 | 1,198 | 1,230 |
| Taco Bell Division | 1,129 | 1,049 | 944 | 850 | 758 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 340 | 373 | 391 | 387 | 387 |
| Unallocated Refranchising gain (loss) | 48 | 34 | 29 | 27 | 35 |
| Unallocated Other income (expense) | -3 | -44 | -9 | 52 | -14 |
| Unallocated Franchise and property revenues | -7 | -18 | |||
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | -13 | 0 | -14 | -24 | 2 |
| Unallocated Company restaurant expenses | -22 | -8 | |||
| Corporate and unallocated General and administrative (G&A) expenses | -402 | -346 | -326 | -297 | -260 |
| Unallocated Franchise and property expenses | -1 | -6 | 1 | ||
| Total | 2,573 | 2,403 | 2,318 | 2,187 | 2,139 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 2,611 | 2,281 | 2,227 | 2,313 | 2,011 |
| Taco Bell Division | 1,626 | 1,544 | 1,483 | 1,397 | 1,387 |
| Corporate and Unallocated | 1,145 | 962 | 757 | 820 | 1,113 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 732 | 814 | 788 | 850 | 804 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | 613 | 630 | 591 | 586 | 537 |
| Total | 6,727 | 6,231 | 5,846 | 5,966 | 5,852 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $161.14 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 43.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/17/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $146.77 | $152.57 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 9.8% | 5.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.5% | 24.5% |
| Downside Capture | 22.95 | -3.66 |
| Upside Capture | 73.50 | 7.91 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 8.4% | 6.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.01 | 0.13 | -0.27 | -0.13 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| Up Beta | -1.87 | -0.90 | -1.23 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| Down Beta | 0.17 | -0.31 | -0.61 | -0.18 | -0.03 | 0.37 |
| Up Capture | 126% | 50% | 11% | -18% | -2% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 30 | 60 | 123 | 380 |
| Down Capture | -89% | 32% | 2% | -29% | -33% | 46% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 21 | 34 | 66 | 128 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YUM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | 10.0% | 24.5% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 26.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 5.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -22.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 41.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 2.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YUM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | 7.2% | 21.4% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 40.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 40.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | -0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 46.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 13.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YUM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | 12.2% | 23.2% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 50.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 53.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 53.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 10.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | -0.4% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 3.3% | 0.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/29/2026 | 2.2% | -1.6% | -3.6% |
| 2/4/2026 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -5.1% | -3.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.9% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.7% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 9.7% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -4.3% | -8.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | -0.4% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 3.3% | 0.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/29/2026 | 2.2% | -1.6% | -3.6% |
| 2/4/2026 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -5.1% | -3.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.9% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -4.2% | -3.8% | -4.1% |
| 2/7/2024 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 10.9% |
| 11/1/2023 | 0.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% |
| 8/2/2023 | -1.0% | -1.6% | -4.1% |
| 5/3/2023 | -3.9% | -3.7% | -7.0% |
| 2/8/2023 | 1.6% | 1.2% | -2.1% |
| 11/2/2022 | -0.7% | 3.6% | 9.8% |
| 8/3/2022 | -1.9% | -4.3% | -8.5% |
| 5/4/2022 | 3.0% | -3.8% | 5.1% |
| 2/9/2022 | 2.2% | -1.6% | -6.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | 0.1% | -1.4% | -0.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% |
| 4/28/2021 | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 2/4/2021 | -1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.7% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 9.7% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -4.3% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/4/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Long-term Unit Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| Long-term Core Operating Profit Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.0% | |||||
| Long-term System Sales Growth, excluding F/X | Reported | 7.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Unit Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Core Operating Profit Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 System Sales Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Unit Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Core Operating Profit Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 System Sales Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Unit Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0 | Same New | Actual: 5.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Core Operating Profit Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 0 | Same New | Actual: 8.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 System Sales Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 0 | Same New | Actual: 7.0% for 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.75 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 11/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 162.00 | 13,812 | 2,237,544 | 486 | Form |
| 2 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 160.00 | 273 | Form | ||
| 3 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 160.00 | 254 | 40,640 | 10,075,306 | Form |
| 4 | Burkhardt, Erika | Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 163.20 | 652 | Form | ||
| 5 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10072026 | 140.11 | 285 | 39,931 | 8,858,407 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 162.00 | 13,812 | 2,237,544 | 486 | Form |
| 2 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 160.00 | 273 | Form | ||
| 3 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 160.00 | 254 | 40,640 | 10,075,306 | Form |
| 4 | Burkhardt, Erika | Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 163.20 | 652 | Form | ||
| 5 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10072026 | 140.11 | 285 | 39,931 | 8,858,407 | Form |
| 6 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 10012026 | 136.89 | 241 | Form | ||
| 7 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 153.64 | 268 | Form | ||
| 8 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 153.64 | 261 | 40,100 | 9,757,624 | Form |
| 9 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 158.00 | 3,494 | 552,052 | 474 | Form |
| 10 | Russell, David Eric | Sr. Vice President, Controller | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 153.15 | 7,961 | 1,219,227 | 1,831,674 | Form |
| 11 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 153.15 | 268 | Form | ||
| 12 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 153.15 | 261 | 39,972 | 9,766,477 | Form |
| 13 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 160.42 | 277 | Form | ||
| 14 | Powell, Aaron | CEO - Pizza Hut | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 160.42 | 6,001 | 962,680 | 1,925,598 | Form |
| 15 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 160.42 | 250 | 40,105 | 10,271,959 | Form |
| 16 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 148.14 | 261 | Form | ||
| 17 | Turner, Christopher Lee | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 148.14 | 270 | 39,998 | 9,522,685 | Form |
| 18 | Tresvant, Sean | Taco Bell, CEO, YUM CCO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 154.68 | 3,000 | 464,040 | 485,695 | Form |
| 19 | Powell, Aaron | CEO - Pizza Hut | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 152.35 | 6,001 | 914,252 | 2,742,983 | Form |
| 20 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 152.00 | 1,837 | 279,224 | 531,544 | Form |
| 21 | Turner, Christopher Lee | CEO, Chairman of Board | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 160.48 | 250 | 40,120 | 10,359,250 | Form |
| 22 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 160.48 | 277 | Form | ||
| 23 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 154.18 | 271 | Form | ||
| 24 | Turner, Christopher Lee | CEO, Chairman of Board | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 154.18 | 257 | 39,624 | 9,991,120 | Form |
| 25 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 166.29 | 287 | Form | ||
| 26 | Turner, Christopher Lee | CEO, Chairman of Board | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 166.29 | 238 | 39,577 | 10,818,605 | Form |
| 27 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 166.02 | 284 | Form | ||
| 28 | Turner, Christopher Lee | CEO, Chairman of Board | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 166.02 | 242 | 40,177 | 10,840,551 | Form |
| 29 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Skeans Trust | Sell | 2172026 | 160.80 | 2,970 | Form | ||
| 30 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 160.16 | 5,341 | 855,415 | 854,293 | Form |
| 31 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 164.63 | 1,612 | Form | ||
| 32 | Powell, Aaron | CEO - Pizza Hut | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 161.44 | 12,000 | 1,937,280 | 2,365,173 | Form |
| 33 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 153.17 | 276 | Form | ||
| 34 | Skeans, Tracy L | COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 149.10 | 24,332 | Form | ||
| 35 | Powell, Aaron | CEO - Pizza Hut | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 150.48 | 2,790 | 419,839 | 4,010,364 | Form |
| 36 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 148.81 | 1,755 | Form | ||
| 37 | Mezvinsky, Scott | KFC Division CEO | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 154.27 | 273 | 42,116 | 270,744 | Form |
| 38 | Burkhardt, Erika | Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 149.37 | 1,269 | 189,551 | 9,560 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
YUM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, based on a newly focused portfolio driving accelerating unit growth. Management expects a record year for KFC development in 2026. While a food safety issue hit Taco Bell sales, recent data shows a recovery with sales up roughly 3% in the latest four-week period. The primary watch item is confirming this recovery continues.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise Royalty Stream / Take-Rate(Number of Franchise Restaurants x Average Unit Volume x Royalty Rate) + Sales from Company-Owned Restaurants High-margin royalty and fee income from the asset-light franchise system, which provides significant operating leverage as system sales grow.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The divestiture of slower-growing Pizza Hut sharpens focus on KFC and Taco Bell, where unit growth is accelerating and sales are recovering.
- Management expects 2026 to be a record year for new unit development at KFC.
- Taco Bell's U.S. development pipeline for 2027 and beyond remains robust.
- Taco Bell same-store sales were up roughly 3% over the four weeks through late October.
- The company guides to meet or exceed its long-term growth algorithm in 2026, ex-Pizza Hut.
- KFC International system sales grew 9% in Q3 with same-store sales accelerating to 4%.
PRIMARY RISK
The -4% Q3 same-store sales decline at Taco Bell could prove to be more than a temporary disruption if brand trust is damaged, especially as key competitors are increasing their focus on value.
- Taco Bell's Q3 same-store sales declined 4% due to a food safety issue.
- Visits by medium and light users at Taco Bell are still only at 95% of prior levels.
- Peer McDonald's plans to launch a new national value program in early 2027.
- Peer Burger King's U.S. same-store sales grew 8.4% in Q3.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin has declined to 29.6% from 30.8% a year ago.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Same-Store Sales Growth | Even for Q3 2026, excluding the divested Pizza Hut brand - Decelerating | The deceleration in same-store sales was driven by a -4% decline at the Taco Bell division, which management attributed to a temporary, industry-wide food safety issue in the U.S. during the quarter. Management noted on the November 3rd earnings call that Taco Bell's sales trends have since recovered and are outperforming the QSR industry. |
| Net New Unit Growth | 7% year-over-year for Q3 2026, excluding the divested Pizza Hut brand - Accelerating | Unit growth is a key strength, with the company noting on its latest earnings call that it expects 2026 to be a record year for new unit development at KFC. This growth is broad-based, with franchise partners described as being 'very committed to growth' in markets with significant expansion opportunity. |
| Worldwide Same-Store Sales Growth (excluding Pizza Hut) | (Q3 2026) | Measures the percentage change in system sales from restaurants open for one year or more, reflecting the health of existing stores and the effectiveness of marketing and operational initiatives. |
| Worldwide Net New Unit Growth (excluding Pizza Hut) | 732 units (Q3 2026) | Indicates the pace of physical expansion of the restaurant footprint, a primary driver of future system sales and royalty revenue growth. It reflects franchisee confidence and investment. |
| Worldwide System Sales Growth (excluding FX and Pizza Hut) | 3% (Q3 2026) | Represents the total sales growth of all restaurants, both company-owned and franchised. It is a key indicator of the overall strength and scale of the business, combining same-store sales and unit growth. |
Taco Bell Recovery vs. Intensifying Competition
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the Taco Bell sales issue was a one-off event, evidenced by sales already returning to ~3% growth and outperforming the industry, allowing the brand's strong momentum to resume.
CORE TENSION
Can Taco Bell's recovery, with recent sales up ~3%, fully re-engage all users before McDonald's new value push in early 2027 creates a new headwind?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management's specific disclosure of a return to positive sales growth and industry outperformance is a more current indicator than the backward-looking Q3 decline.
BEAR VIEW
Bears worry the recovery is fragile, with some customer segments not fully returned, just as peers like McDonald's are launching new national value programs in early 2027 that will steal share.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
through December 31, 2026 | Share Repurchase Authorization Expires Watch: The company's share repurchase authorization of up to $2.0 billion is scheduled to expire. |
by year-end | KFC Beverage Platform Rollout Watch: KFC's KWENCH beverage platform is on track to be implemented in 2,000 restaurants. |
by year-end | Taco Bell Voice AI Expansion Watch: Taco Bell expects to expand its voice AI technology to more than 1,500 restaurants. |
between now and the first half of next year | Significant Debt Maturities Watch: The company expects to address $1.6 billion of maturing debt. |
Beginning in January 2027 | KFC US Beverage Partnership Transition Watch: KFC will begin transitioning its U.S. beverage partnership to The Coca-Cola Company. |
2/1/2027 | Chipotle Earnings Report Watch: Peer Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/2/2027 | Taco Bell Recovery Falters Watch: Q4 same-store sales results for the Taco Bell division and management commentary on traffic from non-heavy users. |
2/2/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Yum Brands is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/9/2027 | Intensifying Peer Value Competition Watch: Peer results, particularly from McDonald's and Restaurant Brands, and commentary on value offerings and market share. |
2/10/2027 | Restaurant Brands Earnings Report Watch: Peer Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-03 | Q3 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported third-quarter results, with Taco Bell's same-store sales declining 4% due to the food safety issue. The stock had a two-day positive reaction of 6.0%. | +5.5% $157.60 -> $166.31 |
2026-10-15 | KFC US Announces Beverage Partnership Details: KFC U.S. announced a new beverage partnership with The Coca-Cola Company, with the transition beginning in January 2027. | +2.6% $146.69 -> $150.51 |
2026-09-01 | Pizza Hut Divestiture Completed Details: The company completed the sale of Pizza Hut, excluding Mainland China, to LongRange Capital. The divestiture resulted in a pre-tax gain of approximately $1.7 billion. | -1.3% $152.54 -> $150.51 |
2026-08-28 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share. | +1.7% $149.99 -> $152.54 |
2026-07-17 | Taco Bell Food Safety Outbreak Details: Health officials identified shredded iceberg lettuce supplied to Taco Bell restaurants as the likely source of a multistate cyclospora outbreak. | -3.1% $151.34 -> $146.63 |
2026-06-16 | Definitive Agreements to Sell Pizza Hut Details: The company announced it entered into definitive agreements to sell the Pizza Hut brand for an aggregate of $2.7 billion. | -0.4% $153.89 -> $153.30 |
2026-05-29 | Pizza Hut Sale Discussions Reported Details: Press reports indicated the company was in exclusive talks to sell its Pizza Hut chain to LongRange Capital, citing people familiar with the matter. | -1.7% $149.28 -> $146.77 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: YUM trades at roughly 30% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.2x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MCD - McDonald's
Established IncumbentMcDonald's offers superior scale, with revenue 3.2 times that of Yum Brands, and significantly higher operating margins at 46.1% versus Yum's 29.6%.
QSR - Restaurant Brands International
Turnaround StoryRestaurant Brands International offers exposure to a turnaround at Burger King, which saw U.S. same-store sales grow 8.4% in the most recent quarter.
An asset-light, global royalty collector on consumer food purchases at its iconic KFC and Taco Bell brands, with growth tied to franchisee health and global consumer trends.
Yum! Brands' core business is a high-margin, capital-light franchise model that leverages the global brand power of KFC and Taco Bell. Growth is a function of expanding the restaurant footprint (unit growth) and increasing sales at existing locations (same-store sales). The recent divestiture of Pizza Hut sharpens the company's focus on its more profitable, higher-growth engines. The key 'Raise the B.A.R.' strategy aims to accelerate performance by modernizing brands, improving franchisee economics, and scaling proprietary technology.
Sustained positive same-store sales growth, particularly at Taco Bell post-recovery; acceleration in KFC's global unit development; and evidence of improving franchisee paybacks.
A prolonged sales slump at Taco Bell, a stall in KFC's international unit growth, or signs of widespread franchisee distress (e.g., store closures, pushback on investment).
Short-term fluctuations in commodity costs (primarily a franchisee-level issue), or quarterly market-specific softness that doesn't reflect a broader trend.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of the 'Raise the B.A.R.' strategy leading to accelerated growth, and a swift, sustained recovery in Taco Bell's sales trends, demonstrating the brand's resilience.
KFC Division
$3.5B TTM (43% of Total) · 42% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes the worldwide operations of the KFC concept, which primarily sells fried and non-fried chicken products. Revenue is generated from franchise royalties and fees, as well as sales from a small number of company-owned restaurants.
Who Pays & How
Franchisees pay royalty fees to leverage KFC's globally recognized brand, its established supply chain, and operational playbook in the chicken QSR category. Consumers purchase food from the restaurants.
Competition
Taco Bell Division
$3.1B TTM (38% of Total) · 36% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes the worldwide operations of the Taco Bell concept, which specializes in Mexican-style food products like tacos and burritos. Revenue comes from franchise fees and sales at company-owned restaurants.
Who Pays & How
Franchisees pay royalty fees to operate under the Taco Bell brand, which is a leader in the Mexican-style food category and known for its cultural relevance, innovation, and value proposition. Consumers purchase food from the restaurants.
Competition
Habit Burger & Grill Division
$570M TTM (7% of Total) · -2% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes the worldwide operations of The Habit Burger & Grill, a fast-casual concept specializing in made-to-order chargrilled burgers and sandwiches. A majority of its units are company-owned (79%).
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for food at the restaurants. Franchisees, who operate a smaller portion of the stores, pay fees to use the brand and operating model.
Competition
Yum Brands — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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