Darden Restaurants (DRI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $189.48 | Market Cap: $22.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Darden Restaurants (DRI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $189.48Market Cap: $22.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Key risksDRI key risks include [1] margin pressure from commodity inflation in key inputs like beef and seafood, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Future of Dining. Themes include Experiential Retail, Off-Premise Dining, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Future of Dining. Themes include Experiential Retail, Off-Premise Dining, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Key risksDRI key risks include [1] margin pressure from commodity inflation in key inputs like beef and seafood, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DRI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Darden Restaurants (DRI) experienced a notable decline of 7.7% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors impacting the company's financial performance and investor sentiment during this period.
1. Q1 2026 Earnings Miss and Disappointing Guidance: Darden Restaurants reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on September 18, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.97, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.01 per share. While total sales increased by 10.4% to $3.04 billion, meeting forecasts, the miss on profit targets negatively impacted investor confidence. Furthermore, the company's full-year earnings guidance, with a midpoint slightly below analyst expectations, offered little reassurance to the market and contributed to the stock's sharp decline on the day of the announcement.
2. Softer Trends at Olive Garden: Despite strong overall performance in some segments, reports indicated softer trends at Olive Garden, a key Darden brand. This slowdown in same-store sales growth, attributed to lower check averages, raised concerns among analysts and investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DRI Return | 10% | 29% | -5% | 23% | 18% | 2% | 101% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 5% | -7% | 27% | 49% | -3% | 105% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DRI Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 52% | 37% | 55% | 63% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DRI Max Drawdown | -68% | -6% | -25% | 0% | -14% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -13% | -27% | -5% | -17% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EAT, BLMN, TXRH, CAKE, YUM. See DRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 336 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 258.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 247.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MCD, SBUX, YUM, CMG, WEN
In The Past
Darden Restaurants's stock fell -30.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/27/2021. A -30.0% loss requires a 42.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | DRI | Darden Restaurants | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 85.1% | 162.3% | -18.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | DRI | Darden Restaurants | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 85.1% | 162.3% | -18.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Darden Restaurants
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 562 |
| FCF LTM | 405 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 278 |
| CFO LTM | 742 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 566 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 19.5 |
| P/CFO | 11.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olive Garden | 5,067 | 4,878 | 4,504 | 3,593 | 4,014 |
| LongHorn Steakhouse | 2,806 | 2,612 | 2,374 | 1,810 | 1,701 |
| Other Business | 2,225 | 2,167 | 1,976 | 1,349 | 1,551 |
| Fine Dining | 1,292 | 831 | 776 | 443 | 541 |
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 11,390 | 10,488 | 9,630 | 7,196 | 7,807 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olive Garden | 942 | 879 | 848 | 691 | 585 |
| LongHorn Steakhouse | 435 | 366 | 354 | 257 | 192 |
| Other Business | 234 | 204 | 200 | 92 | -135 |
| Fine Dining | 175 | 123 | 131 | 49 | 43 |
| Corporate | 7 | 15 | 2 | -44 | -92 |
| General and administrative expenses | -479 | -386 | -373 | -396 | -376 |
| Goodwill impairment | -169 | ||||
| Total | 1,314 | 1,202 | 1,162 | 649 | 48 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other Business | 2,901 | 2,969 | 2,923 | 2,836 | 2,902 |
| Olive Garden | 2,862 | 2,836 | 2,718 | 2,664 | 2,758 |
| Fine Dining | 2,596 | 1,345 | 1,300 | 1,272 | 1,251 |
| LongHorn Steakhouse | 2,026 | 1,978 | 1,911 | 1,816 | 1,830 |
| Corporate | 937 | 1,113 | 1,284 | 2,069 | 1,205 |
| Total | 11,323 | 10,242 | 10,136 | 10,656 | 9,946 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/18/2025 | -7.7% | -10.6% | -9.5% |
| 6/20/2025 | 1.4% | -3.0% | -5.4% |
| 3/20/2025 | 5.8% | 10.3% | 7.2% |
| 12/19/2024 | 14.7% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| 9/19/2024 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| 6/20/2024 | 1.5% | 0.1% | -5.0% |
| 3/21/2024 | -6.5% | -4.4% | -11.9% |
| 12/15/2023 | -0.4% | -0.5% | -2.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -3.0% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 24.2% | 71.1% | 85.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.7% | -10.6% | -11.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9262025 | 10-Q 8/24/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7182025 | 10-K 5/25/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4012025 | 10-Q 2/23/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1022025 | 10-Q 11/24/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9272024 | 10-Q 8/25/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7192024 | 10-K 5/26/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4022024 | 10-Q 2/25/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1032024 | 10-Q 11/26/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/27/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7212023 | 10-K 5/28/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4042023 | 10-Q 2/26/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1042023 | 10-Q 11/27/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10042022 | 10-Q 8/28/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7222022 | 10-K 5/29/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4052022 | 10-Q 2/27/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1052022 | 10-Q 11/28/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |