Waste Connections (WCN)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $189.02 | Market Cap: $47.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Waste Connections (WCN)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $189.02Market Cap: $47.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% Key risksWCN key risks include [1] significant remediation costs from the ongoing Elevated Temperature Landfill event at its Chiquita Canyon Landfill, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Key risksWCN key risks include [1] significant remediation costs from the ongoing Elevated Temperature Landfill event at its Chiquita Canyon Landfill, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Waste Connections (WCN) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook. Waste Connections reported Fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) revenue of $2.638 billion, marking a 7.3% increase year-over-year, which surpassed the consensus estimate of approximately $2.61 billion. Diluted adjusted earnings per share reached $1.58, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.52. Following this strong performance, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to approximately $10.09 billion at the midpoint and reiterated adjusted free cash flow guidance of at least $1.4 billion.
2. Robust Operational Execution Driving Margin Expansion and Volume Improvement. The company demonstrated strong operational execution, achieving a 34.0% adjusted EBITDA margin in Fiscal Q3 2026, an expansion of 50 basis points in underlying margin despite a late-quarter increase in diesel prices. This was further supported by 5.5% core pricing growth in solid waste organic revenue and a sequential improvement of 70 basis points in solid waste unit volumes, primarily driven by an uptick in landfill activity. Operating margin also expanded to 20.5% from 17.9% in the prior year's Fiscal Q3.
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Waste Connections (WCN) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook. Waste Connections reported Fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) revenue of $2.638 billion, marking a 7.3% increase year-over-year, which surpassed the consensus estimate of approximately $2.61 billion. Diluted adjusted earnings per share reached $1.58, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.52. Following this strong performance, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to approximately $10.09 billion at the midpoint and reiterated adjusted free cash flow guidance of at least $1.4 billion.
2. Robust Operational Execution Driving Margin Expansion and Volume Improvement. The company demonstrated strong operational execution, achieving a 34.0% adjusted EBITDA margin in Fiscal Q3 2026, an expansion of 50 basis points in underlying margin despite a late-quarter increase in diesel prices. This was further supported by 5.5% core pricing growth in solid waste organic revenue and a sequential improvement of 70 basis points in solid waste unit volumes, primarily driven by an uptick in landfill activity. Operating margin also expanded to 20.5% from 17.9% in the prior year's Fiscal Q3.
3. Increased Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation. Waste Connections underscored its commitment to shareholder returns by announcing a 10% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, representing its sixteenth consecutive annual increase. Additionally, the company reported year-to-date share repurchases exceeding $1 billion, accounting for 2.5% of its outstanding shares. These actions reflect strong free cash flow generation and financial flexibility to fund growth and return capital to shareholders.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.4% change in WCN stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 166.69 | 189.07 | 13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,764 | 9,944 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 11.4% | 4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.8 | 41.9 | 5.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 253 | 251 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WCN | 13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | -12.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.5% | -8.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.5% change in WCN stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 163.68 | 189.07 | 15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,609 | 9,944 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 11.4% | 3.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.6 | 41.9 | 5.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 255 | 251 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WCN | 15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -27.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.6% | -18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.0% change in WCN stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 165.92 | 189.07 | 14.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,354 | 9,944 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 11.4% | 71.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 68.5 | 41.9 | -38.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 257 | 251 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WCN | 14.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -8.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.8% | 0.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.6% change in WCN stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 126.38 | 189.07 | 49.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,856 | 9,944 | 26.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.6% | 11.4% | 7.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.2 | 41.9 | 6.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 258 | 251 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 49.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WCN | 49.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 16.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 72.0% | 20.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WCN Return | 34% | -2% | 13% | 16% | 3% | 9% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -5% | 25% | 24% | 2% | 11% | 130% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WCN Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 42% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 47% | 57% | 57% | 55% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WCN Max Drawdown | -7% | -21% | -12% | -11% | -17% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -25% | -18% | -12% | -22% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WM, RSG, GFL, CLH, CWST. See WCN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WCN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Connections's stock fell -2.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WCN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Connections's stock fell -2.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Waste Connections (WCN)
Waste Connections (WCN) is a prominent environmental services company providing non-hazardous waste management solutions throughout the United States and Canada. The company's core business revolves around the entire waste lifecycle, offering collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services. This includes comprehensive municipal solid waste (MSW) services, where it collects waste from various sources, transports it through a network of transfer stations, and ultimately disposes of it in its owned and operated landfills.
In addition to general waste management, Waste Connections specializes in extensive recycling operations, processing a wide array of materials such as paper, plastics, glass, and metals. A unique and significant part of its offerings is dedicated to the oil and natural gas industry, where it provides specialized services for exploration and production (E&P) waste. This includes the treatment, recovery, and safe disposal of drilling fluids, completion fluids, flowback water, and contaminated soils resulting from energy production activities.
The company serves a broad customer base, including residential communities, commercial businesses, municipalities, and industrial clients. Its E&P waste services specifically cater to the needs of the energy sector. With a vast infrastructure comprising numerous collection operations, transfer stations, MSW and E&P landfills, recycling facilities, and E&P waste treatment plants across North America, Waste Connections is a key provider in the waste management and environmental services industry.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Waste Connections (WCN):
- The FedEx or UPS for trash and recycling across North America.
- A utility company for waste, handling everything from household trash to industrial disposal and recycling.
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- Non-Hazardous Waste Collection: Gathers non-hazardous waste from residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and E&P customers.
- Waste Transfer Services: Operates transfer stations to compact and load waste for transportation to disposal or treatment facilities.
- Waste Disposal Services: Manages and operates municipal solid waste (MSW) and non-MSW landfills for the final disposal of waste.
- Recycling and Resource Recovery: Processes and recovers various recyclable materials like paper, plastics, glass, and metals for reuse.
- Exploration & Production (E&P) Waste Management: Provides specialized treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste generated by oil and natural gas exploration and production activities.
- Intermodal Services: Offers rail haul movement of cargo and solid waste containers through a network of intermodal facilities.
- Equipment Leasing: Provides leasing services for equipment to its customers.
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Waste Connections (WCN) serves a broad range of customers across various sectors. The company does not identify specific major customer companies by name in its description but rather categorizes its diverse client base. As it provides services to individuals (residential customers) as well as businesses and governmental entities, the most appropriate way to describe its major customers is through these categories.
The up to three categories of customers that Waste Connections primarily serves include:
- Residential customers: Individuals and households that receive non-hazardous waste collection and recycling services.
- Commercial customers: Businesses and organizations that require waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services.
- Municipal customers: Cities, towns, and local governments for whom Waste Connections provides waste collection, transfer, and disposal services.
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Ronald J. Mittelstaedt, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Mittelstaedt is a founder of Waste Connections, Inc., established in 1997. He served as the Chief Executive Officer from the company's formation in 1997 until July 2019, at which point he transitioned to the role of Executive Chairman. In April 2023, Mr. Mittelstaedt was reappointed as President and Chief Executive Officer. He has over 35 years of experience in the solid waste industry and also served as President of Waste Connections from its formation through August 2004. Mr. Mittelstaedt also serves as a director of SkyWest, Inc.
Mary Anne Whitney, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Whitney has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Waste Connections since February 2021. She previously held various finance positions for Wheelabrator Technologies from 1990 to 2001. Prior to her current role, Ms. Whitney served in several financial leadership capacities at Waste Connections, including Director of Finance, Vice President - Finance, and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. She is also a member of the Board of Directors of Vestis Corp.
Jason J. Craft, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Craft has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Waste Connections since August 2025. He has a long history with the company, having held various operational roles since November 2003, including Regional Vice President, Senior Vice President – Operations, Divisional Vice President, and District Manager. Additionally, Mr. Craft worked in Waste Connections' Operations Analysis and Integrations department and Internal Audit department. Before joining Waste Connections, he held various accounting positions with The Newark Group Inc. from June 2000 to April 2003.
Derek Tan, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. Tan was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Waste Connections in May 2025. His previous roles at Waste Connections include Vice President – Financial Reporting and Region Controller - Canada. From June 2015 to April 2016, Mr. Tan served as Accounting Director for Quidsi, a subsidiary of Amazon. He also held various District Controller positions within Waste Connections.
James M. Little, Executive Vice President – Engineering and Disposal
Mr. Little has been Executive Vice President – Engineering and Disposal of Waste Connections since July 2019. He previously served as Senior Vice President – Engineering and Disposal and Vice President – Engineering for the company. Prior to his tenure at Waste Connections, Mr. Little held various management positions with Waste Management, Inc. (formerly USA Waste Services, Inc., which acquired Waste Management, Inc. and Chambers Development Co. Inc.).
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- Elevated Temperature Landfill (ETLF) Events and Associated Costs: Waste Connections faces significant financial and operational risks due to unpredictable Elevated Temperature Landfill (ETLF) events. Specifically, the Chiquita Canyon Landfill in California has required substantial remediation spending, which began in 2023 and is expected to continue, posing a considerable drain on company resources and impacting financial results.
- Rising Fuel and Labor Costs: The company's operational efficiency and margin sustainability are significantly challenged by rising fuel and labor costs. As a waste collection and disposal company, Waste Connections' operations are inherently fuel-intensive and rely heavily on a stable workforce.
- Volume Declines and Volatile Commodity Prices: Waste Connections is exposed to risks from potential declines in solid waste volumes, which can be exacerbated by macroeconomic uncertainties. Additionally, the company's recycling services are vulnerable to weak and fluctuating commodity prices for recycled materials, such as cardboard and plastics, which can negatively impact revenue.
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- The global transition towards a circular economy and zero-waste initiatives, which aim to significantly reduce overall waste generation and divert materials from traditional landfill disposal.
- The ongoing decarbonization and global shift away from fossil fuels, which directly threatens the demand for Waste Connections' specialized exploration and production (E&P) waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services.
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- Price-Led Organic Growth: Waste Connections anticipates continued revenue growth driven by core pricing increases in its solid waste services. For example, in 2026, the company targets core solid waste pricing growth of 5% to 5.5%. This strategy has consistently contributed to the company's performance, with solid waste core pricing rising 6.5% in 2025.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company actively pursues and completes acquisitions, which add significant annualized revenue. Waste Connections closed 19 acquisitions in 2025, adding approximately $330 million in annualized revenue, and expects $125 million in rollover revenue in 2026 from deals already completed. The company maintains a strong acquisition pipeline, focusing on internalizing waste streams and expanding into new markets.
- Investments in Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Projects: Waste Connections is investing in RNG facilities, with capital expenditures including $100 million for RNG projects in 2025 and an estimated $100 million for 2026. These projects are expected to contribute to EBITDA and cash flow, indicating a future revenue stream from clean energy generation.
- Expansion into Secondary and Rural Markets: Waste Connections' growth strategy includes expanding its presence in less-competitive secondary and rural markets. This approach enables the company to gain higher local market share and establish a more dominant operational position.
- Operational Improvements and Technology Investments (including AI): While primarily enhancing margins, investments in operational efficiency and technology, such as AI-driven initiatives for dynamic real-time routing and mobile connectivity, are expected to reduce customer calls and improve service. These improvements can support revenue growth by allowing for competitive pricing and improved customer retention.
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Share Repurchases
- Waste Connections returned over $830 million to shareholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends, with over $500 million attributed to share repurchases.
- In 2022, the company repurchased shares valued at $425 million.
- The company renewed its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) in August 2025, authorizing share purchases from August 12, 2025, to August 11, 2026.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding has remained relatively stable over the last few years, with 257.89 million in 2025, 258.06 million in 2024, and 257.64 million in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, Waste Connections closed 19 acquisitions, which are expected to add approximately $330 million in annualized revenue.
- The company completed acquisitions totaling approximately $750 million in annualized revenue during 2024.
- Waste Connections' acquisition strategy focuses on bolstering its presence, expanding services, and growing its customer base through "tuck-in" acquisitions in new or adjacent markets.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, estimated capital expenditures are approximately $1.25 billion, with about $100 million allocated to Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and recycling projects.
- Capital expenditures totaled $1.194 billion in 2025, including approximately $100 million for RNG projects.
- The company is making significant investments in sustainability, ESG, and AI-driven initiatives, particularly in RNG facilities, which are projected to generate around $200 million of annual EBITDA by 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Environmental & Facilities Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCN | Waste Connections | 8.2% | 41.9x | 15.3% | 46.8% | 46.2% | — |
| GEO | GEO | 5.3% | 12.5x | 80.4% | 194.5% | 190.8% | +145pp |
| CLH | Clean Harbors | 7.1% | 28.4x | 38.5% | 83.6% | 167.8% | +122pp |
| RSG | Republic Services | 5.6% | 34.0x | 22.3% | 64.9% | 97.9% | +52pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 31.6% | 32.1% | 105.5% | MATX 153% · KEX 106% |
| Construction & Engineering | 28 | -22.1% | 92.9% | 93.8% | FIX 949% · STRL 830% · AGX 565% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 14 | 7.5% | 66.0% | 93.0% | ALSN 256% · WAB 210% · CAT 195% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -0.9% | 55.7% | 55.7% | ATI 891% · FTAI 850% · HWM 525% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.3% | 32.0% | 31.6% | DXPE 298% · AIT 187% · URI 180% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.9% | 49.5% | 28.8% | CRS 795% · MLI 302% · SYM 266% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 34.9% | 68.8% | 25.2% | CSX 48% · UNP 36% · NSC 25% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 15.4% | 37.0% | 15.8% | CXW 200% · OPLN 134% · CACI 113% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | MOD 760% · GFF 339% · TT 132% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 30.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | XPO 270% · R 245% · ARCB 19% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 13.4% | 3.3% | -0.6% | CSW 99% · CSL 70% · DD 67% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 19.2% | 22.9% | -2.5% | PBI 157% · HNI 37% · MSA 18% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -8.1% | 59.1% | -5.3% | POWL 1454% · VRT 565% · BE 441% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.7% | 1.7% | -13.8% | EXLS 57% · BR 20% · G -10% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 0.2% | -15.7% | -24.2% | HURN 210% · FCN 36% · BAH 9% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 14.3% | -4.3% | -25.5% | DE 102% · TTC 15% · AGCO 3% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services ← | 29 | -19.4% | 26.4% | -27.0% | GEO 191% · CLH 168% · RSG 98% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -45.7% | 29.4% | -27.5% | BCO 65% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 6.4% | 67.5% | -34.4% | LTM 3140% · UAL 114% · DAL 105% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -29.4% | -9.4% | -40.2% | FDX 75% · EXPD 56% · CHRW 50% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 23.6% | -9.6% | -42.8% | ADP 48% · FA 24% · PAYX 10% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -19.6% | 37.4% | -58.0% | UBER 45% · CAR -58% · LYFT -68% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -46.5% | -66.9% | -87.0% | JOBY -40% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 212.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.7 |
| Rev LTM | 8,688 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,404 |
| FCF LTM | 837 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 809 |
| CFO LTM | 1,962 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,896 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.7 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.1 |
| P/EBIT | 24.7 |
| P/E | 32.3 |
| P/CFO | 15.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | 2,944 | 2,671 | 2,477 | 2,176 | 1,813 |
| Residential | 2,365 | 2,259 | 2,125 | 1,891 | 1,674 |
| Landfill | 1,542 | 1,558 | 1,483 | 1,329 | 1,233 |
| Transfer | 1,462 | 1,349 | 1,198 | 1,026 | 859 |
| Industrial and construction roll off | 1,439 | 1,403 | 1,333 | 1,184 | 954 |
| Exploration and Production (E&P) | 689 | 522 | 232 | 211 | 139 |
| Recycling | 240 | 242 | 147 | 205 | 205 |
| Intermodal and other | 175 | 192 | 172 | 188 | 152 |
| Intercompany Elimination | -1,389 | -1,275 | -1,146 | -998 | -879 |
| Total | 9,467 | 8,920 | 8,022 | 7,212 | 6,151 |
| $ Mil | 2012 |
|---|---|
| Western | 151 |
| Central | 116 |
| Eastern | 52 |
| E&P | 9 |
| Corporate | -11 |
| Total | 316 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western | 1,498 | 1,482 | 1,487 | 1,507 | 1,370 |
| Central | 1,217 | 1,188 | 1,173 | 1,159 | 1,041 |
| Eastern | 1,177 | 853 | 807 | 827 | 841 |
| E&P | 1,114 | 1,610 | 1,485 | 1,449 | |
| Corporate | 116 | 118 | 112 | 134 | 76 |
| Total | 5,122 | 5,250 | 5,064 | 5,076 | 3,328 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $189.07 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 47.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/22/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $165.20 | $163.30 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 14.4% | 15.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 25.5% |
| Downside Capture | -63.10 | -26.92 |
| Upside Capture | 20.73 | -4.93 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -14.4% | -7.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.60 | -0.64 | -0.56 | -0.71 | -0.20 | 0.22 |
| Up Beta | -0.84 | -0.03 | -0.39 | -0.90 | -0.42 | 0.29 |
| Down Beta | -2.26 | -2.38 | -2.01 | -0.88 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Up Capture | 19% | 18% | 2% | -29% | -8% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 22 | 32 | 59 | 121 | 385 |
| Down Capture | -277% | -74% | -63% | -115% | -42% | 27% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 21 | 32 | 67 | 130 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCN | 15.0% | 25.5% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.1% | 17.8% | 0.22 | 1.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | -7.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | -8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -1.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 36.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | -8.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCN | 7.6% | 20.4% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.9% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 34.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 33.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 44.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 9.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCN | 15.2% | 20.2% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 47.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 50.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 52.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 10.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/30/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2026 | 9.9% | 6.8% | |
| 7/22/2026 | 0.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 7.9% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 2/11/2026 | -8.2% | -3.3% | -2.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.2% |
| 2/12/2025 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 6.9% | 15.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -7.9% | -3.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2026 | 9.9% | 6.8% | |
| 7/22/2026 | 0.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 7.9% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 2/11/2026 | -8.2% | -3.3% | -2.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.2% |
| 2/12/2025 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -2.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | -1.0% | -1.5% | 5.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -2.4% | -1.1% | 2.8% |
| 4/24/2024 | -0.6% | -2.5% | -0.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% |
| 10/25/2023 | -6.9% | -5.6% | -2.8% |
| 8/2/2023 | -0.6% | 0.6% | -3.1% |
| 4/26/2023 | -2.3% | -0.9% | -1.7% |
| 2/15/2023 | 0.6% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| 11/2/2022 | 6.6% | 5.9% | 12.1% |
| 8/2/2022 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% |
| 5/3/2022 | -2.1% | -7.9% | -2.6% |
| 2/16/2022 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 15.8% |
| 10/27/2021 | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| 8/4/2021 | -1.0% | -0.8% | 3.0% |
| 4/28/2021 | 1.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| 2/17/2021 | 1.4% | 0.4% | 5.8% |
| 10/28/2020 | -0.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 6.9% | 15.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -7.9% | -3.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/18/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/26/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 2.64 Bil | 2.66 Bil | 2.69 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 2.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 10.09 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.04 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 3.35 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 3.33 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.18 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.17 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 1.25 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.25 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 1.40 Bil | 1.43 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.43 Bil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nielsen, Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 185.50 | 1,500 | 278,250 | 231,875 | Form |
| 2 | Nielsen, Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 187.00 | 500 | 93,500 | 514,252 | Form |
| 3 | Black, Matthew Stephen | Sr VP Chief Tax Officer | Direct | Sell | 11022026 | 180.60 | 11,000 | 1,986,637 | 5,875,028 | Form |
| 4 | Little, James | Executive VP Engineering | Direct | Sell | 10292026 | 185.22 | 2,000 | 370,440 | 6,000,202 | Form |
| 5 | Tan, Derek | SR VP Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10282026 | 186.77 | 1,000 | 186,770 | 75,455 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nielsen, Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 185.50 | 1,500 | 278,250 | 231,875 | Form |
| 2 | Nielsen, Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 187.00 | 500 | 93,500 | 514,252 | Form |
| 3 | Black, Matthew Stephen | Sr VP Chief Tax Officer | Direct | Sell | 11022026 | 180.60 | 11,000 | 1,986,637 | 5,875,028 | Form |
| 4 | Little, James | Executive VP Engineering | Direct | Sell | 10292026 | 185.22 | 2,000 | 370,440 | 6,000,202 | Form |
| 5 | Tan, Derek | SR VP Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10282026 | 186.77 | 1,000 | 186,770 | 75,455 | Form |
| 6 | Rivard, Philip | SR VP Business Development | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 166.57 | 2,500 | 416,425 | 122,262 | Form |
| 7 | Netherton, Susan | SR VP People, Training & Dev | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 166.00 | 1,750 | 290,500 | 2,154,680 | Form |
| 8 | Cloninger, Robert Michael | SR VP, Deputy General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7302026 | 171.02 | 2,811 | 480,749 | 1,995,168 | Form |
| 9 | Craft, Jason | Executive Vice President & COO | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 156.59 | 1,500 | 234,887 | 5,145,753 | Form |
| 10 | Shea, Patrick James | Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 156.26 | 7,500 | 1,171,915 | 3,084,011 | Form |
| 11 | Nielsen, Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 155.56 | 500 | 77,780 | 661,130 | Form |
| 12 | Mittelstaedt, Ronald J | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 5132026 | 152.24 | 50,000 | 7,611,750 | 45,825,323 | Form |
| 13 | Hansen, Eric | Senior Vice President and CIO | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 164.82 | 6,000 | 988,925 | 2,200,358 | Form |
| 14 | Little, James | Executive VP Engineering | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 163.98 | 2,605 | 427,168 | 5,640,092 | Form |
| 15 | Tan, Derek | SR VP Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 171.03 | 1,173 | 200,618 | 240,126 | Form |
| 16 | Nielsen, Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 167.59 | 2,000 | 335,180 | 209,488 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $398.2 Mil | 9.6% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunriver Management LLC | $52.4 Mil | 8.9% | 18 | New | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $27.5 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $42.0 Mil | 3.4% | 45 | ADD +15.3% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $151.4 Mil | 3.3% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $331.2 Mil | 1.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $398.2 Mil | 9.6% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $331.2 Mil | 1.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $151.4 Mil | 3.3% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunriver Management LLC | $52.4 Mil | 8.9% | 18 | New | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $42.0 Mil | 3.4% | 45 | ADD +15.3% | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $27.5 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Environmental & Facilities Services Resources |
| Waste360 |
| Waste Dive |
| FacilitiesNet |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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