Analogy 1: They are like Waste Management (WM), but they also specialize in environmental cleanup and industrial liquid waste.

Analogy 2: Think of them as a broader Republic Services (RSG), handling solid waste, contaminated soil, and industrial liquids.

• Non-Hazardous Solid Waste Management: This service encompasses the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste for various customer segments.
• Infrastructure and Soil Remediation: GFL provides remediation of contaminated soils, alongside civil, demolition, excavation, and shoring services.
• Liquid Waste Management: This involves the collection, management, transportation, processing, and disposal of industrial and commercial liquid wastes, including the resale of liquid waste products.

GFL Environmental (GFL) serves a diversified customer base across its various business lines. Its major customers fall into the following categories:

• Municipal customers (e.g., city and regional governments for solid waste collection, infrastructure, and soil remediation services)
• Residential customers (individual households for solid waste collection and recycling services)
• Commercial and industrial customers (businesses of various sizes and industries for solid waste management, liquid waste management, and infrastructure and soil remediation services)

The key risks to GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) primarily revolve around its financial leverage, the highly competitive nature of its industry, and the complexities of regulatory compliance.

1. High Debt Load and Interest Rate Risk: GFL Environmental has historically relied on aggressive debt financing to fuel its growth-by-acquisition strategy, resulting in a substantial debt load. While the company has made efforts to deleverage, this elevated debt level remains a significant financial risk. This exposure to debt also makes GFL vulnerable to fluctuations in interest rates, which can increase its borrowing costs and impact profitability.
2. Intense Competition: GFL operates within a highly competitive environmental services industry, facing much larger rivals such as Waste Management and Republic Services. These larger competitors often possess advantages in terms of scale, pricing power, route density, and capital expenditure efficiency, which can pressure GFL's margins and market share.
3. Regulatory Changes and Compliance Costs: The company operates in a heavily regulated sector, and changes in environmental laws and regulations pose a continuous risk. Stricter rules, particularly concerning hazardous waste and emerging contaminants like PFAS, can lead to increased compliance costs, significant upfront investments in new infrastructure (e.g., material recovery facilities), and potential fines or reputational damage from non-compliance. GFL has also faced scrutiny regarding its environmental track record and incidents of non-compliance.

The acceleration and widespread adoption of circular economy principles and zero-waste initiatives pose a clear emerging threat to GFL Environmental. These initiatives aim to fundamentally redesign production and consumption systems to minimize waste generation, maximize reuse, and enhance resource recovery. As governments, industries, and consumers increasingly adopt practices that reduce the overall volume of waste requiring collection, transfer, and disposal (particularly landfilling and incineration), GFL's core business model, which is heavily reliant on processing and disposing of waste from a linear economy, faces significant disruption. This shift could lead to a substantial reduction in the demand for traditional waste management services, akin to how streaming services disrupted the demand for physical media rentals.

GFL Environmental Inc. operates in several addressable markets across Canada and the United States. The estimated market sizes for its main services are as follows:

Non-Hazardous Solid Waste Management

• The U.S. solid waste management market, which includes non-hazardous waste, was estimated at approximately USD 156.3 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach USD 247.5 billion by 2033, with the non-hazardous waste segment specifically expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from 2025 to 2033.
• The overall waste management market in Canada, which includes solid waste, reached approximately USD 28.5 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to USD 43.3 billion by 2034, demonstrating a CAGR of 4.74% during 2026-2034.

Infrastructure and Soil Remediation

• The U.S. soil remediation market size surpassed approximately USD 8.3 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach around USD 15.38 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 6.36% from 2025 to 2034.
• The environmental remediation market in Canada, which encompasses soil remediation services, generated revenues of approximately USD 3.04 billion (USD 3,036.7 million) in 2025. It is expected to grow to USD 5,620.8 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 8.1% from 2026 to 2033.

Liquid Waste Management

• The U.S. liquid waste management market was valued at approximately USD 29.80 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to about USD 40.09 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.01% from 2025 to 2034.
• The liquid waste management market in Canada was valued at approximately USD 8.19 billion in 2024. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.6% during the forecast period, reaching an estimated USD 10.61 billion by 2034.

GFL Environmental (GFL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic pricing, continued accretive acquisitions, organic expansion, and initiatives in renewable energy and extended producer responsibility.

• Strategic Pricing Initiatives: GFL has demonstrated a strong ability to implement pricing strategies across its Solid Waste platform, achieving industry-leading core price increases. For example, in Q4 2025, core pricing contributed 6.4% to revenue growth, with full-year 2025 core pricing at 6.1%. The company expects to maintain solid waste pricing of at least 6% for 2024. This focus on price-driven revenue initiatives, particularly in its solid waste segment, is a key driver for future growth and margin expansion.
• Accretive Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A): A significant component of GFL's growth strategy is its robust acquisition pipeline and consistent deployment of capital for M&A. The company has historically grown through hundreds of acquisitions across North America, focusing on building route density and establishing local market strength. In 2025, GFL deployed nearly $1 billion in M&A, and has stated plans to deploy approximately $700-$900 million annually on acquisitions, financed from adjusted free cash flow and available liquidity, which are expected to contribute meaningfully to revenue rollover in subsequent years.
• Organic Growth and Operational Efficiencies: GFL is focused on generating organic growth, particularly within its solid waste and environmental services segments. The company anticipates annual organic revenue growth of approximately 5.0% to 6.0% through 2028. This organic growth is supported by positive volumes, which were 0.5% in 2025. Furthermore, operational efficiencies are expected to drive annual organic Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 40 basis points, contributing to overall financial performance.
• Growth from EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) and RNG (Renewable Natural Gas) Initiatives: GFL expects significant revenue contributions from its Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) initiatives. These initiatives are projected to add between $285 million and $440 million in revenue for the period between 2026 and 2028. The company has long-term goals that include doubling the beneficial use of biogas generated from its landfills and having renewable natural gas power at least 85% of its compressed natural gas solid waste collection fleet in the United States by 2030, indicating a strategic focus on these environmentally-driven revenue streams.

Share Repurchases

• GFL Environmental completed $3.0 billion of share repurchases in 2025, accounting for over 10% of its issued and outstanding subordinate voting shares.
• This included a direct repurchase of 17,050,298 subordinate voting shares from BC Partners in March 2025 at a net price of US$46.92 per share.
• The company authorized a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 27,396,513 subordinate voting shares, representing 10% of its public float, for the 12-month period commencing March 3, 2026.

Inbound Investments

• In January 2025, GFL Environmental agreed to sell its Environmental Services business to funds managed by Apollo and BC Partners for an enterprise value of $8.0 billion. GFL retained a 44% equity interest in the divested business.

Outbound Investments

• In 2025, GFL deployed nearly $1 billion into accretive mergers and acquisitions, completing transactions that are expected to generate approximately $290 million in annualized revenue.
• Between July 2021 and October 2021, GFL completed 16 acquisitions, bringing its year-to-date total to 31, including the acquisition of Peoria Disposal Company (PDC) in October 2021 to expand its solid waste footprint in the U.S. Midwest.
• GFL has also made investments in renewable natural gas (RNG) projects through joint ventures and reinvested $275.0 million in 2023 into organic growth initiatives, including RNG and new contracts related to Extended Producer Responsibility recycling legislation.

Capital Expenditures

• GFL Environmental's annual capital expenditures were $771.438 million in 2023 and $872.264 million in 2024.
• For 2026, net capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $800 million.
• This projection for 2026 excludes approximately $175 million of incremental growth capital intended for material recycling facilities and other infrastructure, primarily related to opportunities under extended producer responsibility legislation.