Tearsheet

GFL Environmental (GFL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $44.905 | Market Cap: $16.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

GFL Environmental (GFL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $44.905
Market Cap: $16.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -14%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GFL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, GFL Environmental's stock experienced a decline of approximately 10.2%, driven by several key factors.

1. GFL Environmental's Q3 2025 Adjusted Earnings Per Share Missed Analyst Expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17 for the third quarter of 2025, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.19 per share. This 10.53% earnings surprise to the downside likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

2. The Company's Q3 2025 Revenue Fell Short of Consensus Estimates. GFL Environmental's reported revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $1.22 billion, which significantly missed analysts' consensus estimate of $1.69 billion. This substantial revenue miss, despite the company reporting overall revenue growth, indicated a shortfall in market expectations for its top-line performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GFL Return-30%-23%18%29%1%55%
Peers Return59%-9%23%13%46%18%244%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GFL Win Rate67%50%58%42%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate38%37%40%42%42%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GFL Max Drawdown--5%-37%-6%-11%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-27%-22%-15%-5%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWST, GEO, CECO, FTEK, YDDL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGFLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven676 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days

Compare to CWST, GEO, CECO, FTEK, YDDL


In The Past

GFL Environmental's stock fell -42.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -42.9% loss requires a 75.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About GFL Environmental (GFL)

Better Bets than GFL Environmental (GFL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for GFL Environmental

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GFLCWSTGEOCECOFTEKYDDLMedian
NameGFL Envi.Casella .GEO CECO Env.Fuel TechOne and . 
Mkt Price44.9095.6817.1054.501.835.2531.00
Mkt Cap16.36.12.41.90.1-2.4
Rev LTM8,2241,7952,53171825-1,795
Op Inc LTM5389327948-4-93
FCF LTM2267826-173-26
FCF 3Y Avg1397414713-0-74
CFO LTM1,436343208-23-208
CFO 3Y Avg1,265271257250-257

Growth & Margins

GFLCWSTGEOCECOFTEKYDDLMedian
NameGFL Envi.Casella .GEO CECO Env.Fuel TechOne and . 
Rev Chg LTM27.5%20.5%4.4%29.9%-5.7%-20.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.3%19.6%3.1%21.9%-2.0%-10.3%
Rev Chg Q9.0%17.9%13.1%45.8%-4.6%-13.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%4.3%3.2%9.5%-1.4%-3.2%
Op Mgn LTM6.5%5.2%11.0%6.7%-17.7%-6.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.4%6.9%13.3%7.0%-12.7%-6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%-0.5%-0.5%-0.3%0.5%--0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM17.5%19.1%8.2%-0.3%11.9%-11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.3%18.2%10.5%4.8%0.7%-10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM2.7%4.4%1.0%-2.4%10.7%-2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%5.2%6.0%2.8%-0.7%-2.8%

Valuation

GFLCWSTGEOCECOFTEKYDDLMedian
NameGFL Envi.Casella .GEO CECO Env.Fuel TechOne and . 
Mkt Cap16.36.12.41.90.1-2.4
P/S2.13.41.12.53.8-2.5
P/EBIT33.173.15.918.6-60.7-18.6
P/E4.8394.811.934.9-31.0-11.9
P/CFO11.917.613.6-796.831.8-13.6
Total Yield21.0%0.3%8.4%2.9%-3.2%-2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.8%1.4%11.3%2.5%-2.4%-1.4%
D/E0.50.20.60.10.0-0.2
Net D/E0.40.20.50.1-0.3-0.2

Returns

GFLCWSTGEOCECOFTEKYDDLMedian
NameGFL Envi.Casella .GEO CECO Env.Fuel TechOne and . 
1M Rtn2.6%7.8%1.7%4.8%-30.7%22.0%3.7%
3M Rtn-8.4%0.1%-18.7%17.4%-36.0%--8.4%
6M Rtn-8.9%-18.3%-36.2%104.0%9.6%--8.9%
12M Rtn-3.7%-16.0%-36.5%68.9%77.7%--3.7%
3Y Rtn53.0%10.4%49.6%346.7%27.1%-49.6%
1M Excs Rtn2.6%7.9%1.8%4.8%-30.6%22.0%3.7%
3M Excs Rtn-12.2%-5.2%-24.5%6.4%-42.0%--12.2%
6M Excs Rtn-23.7%-33.0%-50.9%89.2%-5.1%--23.7%
12M Excs Rtn-18.1%-29.0%-53.6%56.5%57.5%--18.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-13.5%-60.1%-5.6%272.5%-30.9%--13.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Solid Waste6,6108,4434,4043,2552,461
Environmental Services1,8521,823733  
Corporate00   
Intercompany Revenue-946-1,090   
Infrastructure and soil remediation   527535
Liquid Waste   414351
Total7,5169,1765,1374,1963,347


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,169,511
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202519.6%
Average Daily Volume1,612,980
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.44
Basic Shares Quantity362,084,803
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110520256-K 9/30/2025
630202580120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550220256-K 3/31/2025
12312024227202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110820246-K 9/30/2024
630202473120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450120246-K 3/31/2024
12312023223202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110320236-K 9/30/2023
630202372820236-K 6/30/2023
331202342820236-K 3/31/2023
12312022223202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202272720226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021210202240-F 12/31/2021