Tearsheet

Casella Waste Systems (CWST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.72 | Market Cap: $6.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Casella Waste Systems (CWST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.72
Market Cap: $6.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 73x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 395x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 73x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 395x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CWST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Lower-than-expected Q2 2025 Net Income and Reduced Full-Year Profitability Guidance. Casella Waste Systems reported its second quarter 2025 results around July 31, 2025. While the company saw an increase in revenues, its net income for the quarter was $5.2 million, a decline from $7.0 million in the same period of 2024, falling short of analyst expectations. This prompted the company to reduce its GAAP net income guidance for the full fiscal year 2025 from an earlier range of $10 million to $25 million to a revised range of $8 million to $18 million. This news led to an immediate stock price decline of over 5% on August 1, 2025.

2. Profit Margin Contraction and One-Off Loss. A report from November 1, 2025, indicated that Casella Waste Systems' net profit margin for the twelve months ending September 30, 2025, was 0.6%, a decrease from 1.3% a year earlier. The company's results for this period also included a notable one-off loss of $32.1 million, contributing to investor concerns about the company's financial performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CWST Return35%38%-7%8%24%-10%108%
Peers Return-5%8%-11%20%35%-7%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CWST Win Rate67%75%50%58%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate62%54%40%46%46%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CWST Max Drawdown-22%-13%-23%-8%-5%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-5%-24%-10%-6%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CLH, ABM, BV, MDRN, SEAH. See CWST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCWSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven327 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven50 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-96.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2790.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3021 days1480 days

Compare to CLH, ABM, BV, MDRN, SEAH


In The Past

Casella Waste Systems's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/10/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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About Casella Waste Systems (CWST)

Better Bets than Casella Waste Systems (CWST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CWST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Casella Waste Systems

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CWSTCLHABMBVMDRNSEAHMedian
NameCasella .Clean Ha.ABM Indu.BrightVi.Modern M.Seahawk . 
Mkt Price95.68237.0143.9412.78--69.81
Mkt Cap6.112.72.71.2--4.4
Rev LTM1,7955,9628,6282,699--4,331
Op Inc LTM93652263132--197
FCF LTM784415833--68
FCF 3Y Avg7434016873--121
CFO LTM343816131261--302
CFO 3Y Avg271764229195--250

Growth & Margins

CWSTCLHABMBVMDRNSEAHMedian
NameCasella .Clean Ha.ABM Indu.BrightVi.Modern M.Seahawk . 
Rev Chg LTM20.5%2.9%4.3%-3.0%--3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.6%6.0%4.8%-0.3%--5.4%
Rev Chg Q17.9%1.3%6.2%-4.1%--3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.3%0.3%1.5%-1.1%--0.9%
Op Mgn LTM5.2%10.9%3.0%4.9%--5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%11.3%3.8%4.0%--5.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.0%0.5%0.4%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM19.1%13.7%1.5%9.7%--11.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.2%13.4%2.8%7.1%--10.2%
FCF/Rev LTM4.4%7.4%0.7%1.2%--2.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%5.9%2.0%2.6%--3.9%

Valuation

CWSTCLHABMBVMDRNSEAHMedian
NameCasella .Clean Ha.ABM Indu.BrightVi.Modern M.Seahawk . 
Mkt Cap6.112.72.71.2--4.4
P/S3.42.10.30.6--1.3
P/EBIT73.118.311.012.0--15.2
P/E394.832.025.529.4--30.7
P/CFO17.615.222.56.1--16.4
Total Yield0.3%3.1%6.1%3.4%--3.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.2%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.4%3.0%5.6%6.9%--4.3%
D/E0.20.20.60.5--0.4
Net D/E0.20.20.50.5--0.3

Returns

CWSTCLHABMBVMDRNSEAHMedian
NameCasella .Clean Ha.ABM Indu.BrightVi.Modern M.Seahawk . 
1M Rtn7.8%13.6%1.7%4.5%--6.2%
3M Rtn0.1%-1.6%-9.3%-10.6%---5.5%
6M Rtn-18.3%5.8%-15.1%-18.7%---16.7%
12M Rtn-16.0%-7.5%-20.2%-26.3%---18.1%
3Y Rtn10.4%91.1%0.9%88.8%--49.6%
1M Excs Rtn7.9%13.6%1.7%4.5%--6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-5.2%-8.7%-13.5%-16.8%---11.1%
6M Excs Rtn-33.0%-9.0%-29.8%-33.4%---31.4%
12M Excs Rtn-29.0%-22.4%-35.0%-38.8%---32.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-60.1%25.3%-69.7%10.8%---24.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Collection711540443391 
National Accounts187181 134 
Transfer station1231119179 
Processing11612910370 
Landfill101989286 
Transportation21201411 
Landfill gas-to-energy7854 
Customer solutions  142  
Resource Solutions - Customer solutions    79
Resource Solutions - Organics    56
Resource Solutions - Recycling    43
Solid waste operations - Collection    372
Solid waste operations - Disposal    182
Solid waste operations - Power generation    4
Solid waste operations - Processing    7
Total1,2651,085889775743


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,842,430
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.0%
Average Daily Volume611,077
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.65
Basic Shares Quantity63,492,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021