Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (6/25/2026): $222.0 | Market Cap: $89.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (6/25/2026): $222.0Market Cap: $89.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% | Key risksWM key risks include [1] increased operating and capital costs driven by evolving environmental regulations for contaminants like PFAS and [2] revenue volatility from fluctuating market prices for recyclable commodities. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% |
| Key risksWM key risks include [1] increased operating and capital costs driven by evolving environmental regulations for contaminants like PFAS and [2] revenue volatility from fluctuating market prices for recyclable commodities. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 6/10/2026
Waste Management (WM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Waste Management reported a revenue miss and declining collection volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, tempering investor sentiment. The company announced its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, 2026, reporting revenue of $6.23 billion, which fell slightly short of analyst estimates of $6.28 billion by 0.8%. Additionally, collection and disposal volumes declined by 1.5% year-over-year, attributed to factors such as harsh winter weather and the deliberate shedding of lower-margin residential business. Despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat of $1.81 against an estimated $1.74, the revenue miss and volume decline likely contributed to caution among investors, leading to a slight dip in premarket trading following the announcement.
2. Broader industry headwinds, including adverse weather and moderating industrial activity, impacted solid waste volumes. The entire solid waste sector experienced negative volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, largely due to severe winter weather conditions. For Waste Management specifically, collection and disposal volumes were down 1.5%. Furthermore, there were indications of a moderating industrial environment and slower construction-related waste activity, which analysts noted could potentially temper future volume trends for the industry, despite Waste Management's strong pricing power.
Show more
Waste Management (WM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Waste Management reported a revenue miss and declining collection volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, tempering investor sentiment. The company announced its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, 2026, reporting revenue of $6.23 billion, which fell slightly short of analyst estimates of $6.28 billion by 0.8%. Additionally, collection and disposal volumes declined by 1.5% year-over-year, attributed to factors such as harsh winter weather and the deliberate shedding of lower-margin residential business. Despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat of $1.81 against an estimated $1.74, the revenue miss and volume decline likely contributed to caution among investors, leading to a slight dip in premarket trading following the announcement.
2. Broader industry headwinds, including adverse weather and moderating industrial activity, impacted solid waste volumes. The entire solid waste sector experienced negative volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, largely due to severe winter weather conditions. For Waste Management specifically, collection and disposal volumes were down 1.5%. Furthermore, there were indications of a moderating industrial environment and slower construction-related waste activity, which analysts noted could potentially temper future volume trends for the industry, despite Waste Management's strong pricing power.
Show more
Updated on 6/10/2026
Waste Management (WM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Waste Management reported a revenue miss and declining collection volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, tempering investor sentiment. The company announced its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, 2026, reporting revenue of $6.23 billion, which fell slightly short of analyst estimates of $6.28 billion by 0.8%. Additionally, collection and disposal volumes declined by 1.5% year-over-year, attributed to factors such as harsh winter weather and the deliberate shedding of lower-margin residential business. Despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat of $1.81 against an estimated $1.74, the revenue miss and volume decline likely contributed to caution among investors, leading to a slight dip in premarket trading following the announcement.
2. Broader industry headwinds, including adverse weather and moderating industrial activity, impacted solid waste volumes. The entire solid waste sector experienced negative volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, largely due to severe winter weather conditions. For Waste Management specifically, collection and disposal volumes were down 1.5%. Furthermore, there were indications of a moderating industrial environment and slower construction-related waste activity, which analysts noted could potentially temper future volume trends for the industry, despite Waste Management's strong pricing power.
3. The stock's valuation, after reaching a 52-week high, faced adjustments from analysts. Waste Management's stock reached a 52-week high of $248.13 on March 6, 2026, and an all-time closing high of $244.47 on March 9, 2026. Following this peak and the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, some analysts adjusted their price targets. For example, Wells Fargo & Company cut its price target from $273.00 to $268.00 on April 30, 2026. While the overall analyst consensus remained "Buy" with a median price target around $253.15 to $263.00, the perceived high valuation near its peak, coupled with the Q1 revenue miss and volume pressures, may have prompted a downward reevaluation by investors.
Show less
Waste Management (WM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Waste Management reported a revenue miss and declining collection volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, tempering investor sentiment. The company announced its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, 2026, reporting revenue of $6.23 billion, which fell slightly short of analyst estimates of $6.28 billion by 0.8%. Additionally, collection and disposal volumes declined by 1.5% year-over-year, attributed to factors such as harsh winter weather and the deliberate shedding of lower-margin residential business. Despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat of $1.81 against an estimated $1.74, the revenue miss and volume decline likely contributed to caution among investors, leading to a slight dip in premarket trading following the announcement.
2. Broader industry headwinds, including adverse weather and moderating industrial activity, impacted solid waste volumes. The entire solid waste sector experienced negative volumes in fiscal Q1 2026, largely due to severe winter weather conditions. For Waste Management specifically, collection and disposal volumes were down 1.5%. Furthermore, there were indications of a moderating industrial environment and slower construction-related waste activity, which analysts noted could potentially temper future volume trends for the industry, despite Waste Management's strong pricing power.
3. The stock's valuation, after reaching a 52-week high, faced adjustments from analysts. Waste Management's stock reached a 52-week high of $248.13 on March 6, 2026, and an all-time closing high of $244.47 on March 9, 2026. Following this peak and the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, some analysts adjusted their price targets. For example, Wells Fargo & Company cut its price target from $273.00 to $268.00 on April 30, 2026. While the overall analyst consensus remained "Buy" with a median price target around $253.15 to $263.00, the perceived high valuation near its peak, coupled with the Q1 revenue miss and volume pressures, may have prompted a downward reevaluation by investors.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in WM stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 238.85 | 223.26 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,204 | 25,413 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 11.0% | 2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.5 | 32.2 | -9.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 403 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.2% | -32.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.0% | -14.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in WM stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 215.24 | 223.26 | 3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,784 | 25,413 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 11.0% | 6.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.8 | 32.2 | -4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 403 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.9% | -21.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.0% | -3.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.5% change in WM stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 236.35 | 223.26 | -5.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 22,922 | 25,413 | 10.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.7% | 11.0% | -5.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.5 | 32.2 | -9.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 402 | 403 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | -5.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.8% | -17.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 27.9% | 0.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.0% change in WM stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 153.98 | 223.26 | 45.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,929 | 25,413 | 27.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.3% | 11.0% | -3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.8 | 32.2 | 16.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 407 | 403 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 45.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.4% | 13.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 94.6% | 21.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WM Return | 44% | -4% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 0% | 102% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 15% | 23% | 57% | -10% | 6% | 179% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WM Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 44% | 58% | 62% | 58% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WM Max Drawdown | -7% | -17% | -12% | -12% | -18% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -25% | -22% | -17% | -34% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RSG, CLH, ACM, GEO, YDDL. See WM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Waste Management (WM)
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Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a prominent environmental services company operating across North America. Its core business revolves around providing comprehensive waste management solutions, encompassing the entire lifecycle of waste and recyclable materials—from initial collection to processing, recycling, and final disposal. The company plays a crucial role in maintaining environmental health by managing various waste streams effectively.
WM's main services include the collection and transportation of waste and recyclable materials. It operates a vast network of essential infrastructure, including numerous solid waste and hazardous waste landfills, transfer stations, and material recovery facilities (MRFs) for processing recyclables. Beyond traditional waste services, WM also develops and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities, converting waste into renewable energy. Additionally, it offers specialized solutions such as materials processing and recycling brokerage, construction and remediation services, disposal of industrial by-products like fly ash, in-plant waste management consulting, and specific disposal services for oil and gas exploration and production operations.
The company serves a broad and diverse customer base throughout North America. Its primary markets include residential households, commercial businesses, industrial facilities, and municipal entities. This extensive customer reach underscores Waste Management's position as a vital partner for communities and industries seeking reliable, integrated, and environmentally responsible waste and recycling solutions.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Waste Management (WM):
A utility company, but for waste and recycling services.
The UPS or FedEx for trash and recyclables.
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- Waste Collection and Transportation: Services for picking up and transporting various waste and recyclable materials from customer sites to processing or disposal facilities.
- Waste Disposal and Landfill Management: Operation of solid waste, hazardous waste, and specialized landfills for the secure and environmentally compliant disposal of diverse waste streams.
- Recycling and Materials Processing: Services including operating Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) to sort and process recyclable materials, and providing recycling brokerage.
- Landfill Gas-to-Energy: Development and operation of facilities that convert landfill gas, a byproduct of landfills, into renewable energy.
- Environmental Consulting and Specialized Services: Offers construction and remediation, in-plant waste management solutions, and specialized disposal services for industrial byproducts like fly ash and oil & gas operations.
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Waste Management (WM) serves a broad range of customers, encompassing individuals, businesses, and governmental entities. The company's major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Residential Customers: These include individual households and homeowners who receive waste collection and recycling services.
- Commercial Customers: This category comprises various businesses, such as offices, retail stores, restaurants, and other commercial establishments that require waste management and recycling solutions.
- Industrial and Municipal Customers: This segment includes large-scale industrial operations, manufacturing facilities, construction sites, and municipal governments (cities, towns, and other local authorities) often under long-term contracts for waste disposal, recycling, and specialized environmental services.
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Key Risks to Waste Management (WM)
- High Debt Load and Acquisition Integration Risks: Waste Management carries a significant debt load, which increased substantially following the acquisition of Stericycle, Inc.. This presents a major financial risk, particularly in an environment of higher interest rates, and has elevated the company's debt-to-equity ratio above that of its industry peers. The integration of an acquisition of Stericycle's size is also complex, with a specific risk that if Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses for the Healthcare Solutions segment do not decline towards targeted synergy levels, the anticipated financial benefits and margin expansion may not be realized.
- Commodity Price Volatility in Recycling Operations: The financial performance of Waste Management's recycling segment is highly vulnerable to the volatile market prices and demand for recycled commodities. Fluctuations in these prices can negatively impact the company's operating income and cash flows, as demonstrated by past instances where lower recycled commodity prices directly led to a reduction in revenue guidance.
- Extensive and Evolving Regulatory and Environmental Compliance: Waste Management's diverse operations are subject to extensive and complex environmental, health, and safety laws and regulations across federal, state, provincial, and local levels. Changes in these regulations, including those pertaining to emerging contaminants or extended producer responsibility, have the potential to restrict operations, increase operating costs, raise tax liabilities, decrease revenues, or necessitate substantial additional capital expenditures. The company also faces the risk of incurring significant environmental liabilities if its operations are alleged to cause environmental damage.
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The increasing global adoption of circular economy principles and zero-waste initiatives represents a clear emerging threat. This movement aims to drastically reduce the generation of waste materials, promote extensive reuse, repair, and advanced recycling, thereby diminishing the fundamental need for traditional waste collection, transfer, and landfill disposal services that constitute a significant portion of Waste Management's core business model and asset base.
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Waste Management, Inc. (symbol: WM) operates in several substantial addressable markets across North America.
The overall North America waste management market was valued at approximately USD 196.4 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 207.21 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 319.14 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2025 to 2033. Another source indicates the North America waste management market generated revenue of USD 495.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 760.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2026 to 2033. This market is segmented by waste type, including municipal solid waste, industrial waste, hazardous waste, e-waste, and organic waste.
For hazardous waste management, North America held the largest revenue share, accounting for approximately 33.1% of the global hazardous waste management market in 2025. The North America hazardous waste management market is projected to reach USD 29,779.5 million by 2033. The global hazardous waste management market size was valued at USD 18.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.68 billion by 2034, with North America holding 34% of this global market share. The U.S. hazardous waste management market alone generated USD 4,660.1 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 7,257.5 million by 2033.
The North America waste recycling services market size was valued at USD 17.13 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 20.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.34% during this period. The U.S. dominates North America's waste recycling services market, accounting for about 80% of the share, with a market size valued at USD 13.8 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 21.92 billion by 2032.
The North America recycled plastics market was valued at USD 8,162.8 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 11,287.2 million by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 3.48% from 2025 to 2033. Another report indicates the North America recycled plastics market size was USD 17.48 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 25.98 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.50% from 2026 to 2034.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Waste Management (WM)
Over the next 2-3 years, Waste Management (WM) is anticipated to drive revenue growth through several strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
- Disciplined Pricing and Core Business Growth: Waste Management expects continued revenue growth from its core collection and disposal business, driven by disciplined pricing strategies and sustained, albeit sometimes modest, volume increases. The company has projected core price growth in the range of 5.4% to 6.5% for 2025 and 2026, alongside expected positive collection and disposal volume growth.
- Integration and Expansion of WM Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle Acquisition): The acquisition of Stericycle in 2024, with full integration expected in 2025, is a significant driver. This expansion into regulated medical waste and secure information destruction services is projected to diversify revenue streams, contribute substantial revenue growth (estimated to be about 40% of WM's projected revenue growth for 2025), and generate significant synergies (up to $250 million by 2027).
- Investments in Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facilities: Waste Management is aggressively investing in renewable natural gas (RNG) infrastructure, aiming to have 20 RNG facilities operational by the end of 2026. These projects convert organic waste into clean energy, creating new, high-margin revenue streams and aligning with the company's sustainability goals.
- Recycling Automation and Infrastructure Modernization: The company is investing over $1 billion through 2026 to enhance its recycling capabilities, including the addition of 20 new or fully automated Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs). This investment is aimed at improving operational efficiency, increasing resource recovery rates, and boosting revenue from its recycling processing and sales segments.
- Expansion into High-Margin Niche Services and Cross-Selling: Waste Management is focused on expanding into higher-margin niche services beyond traditional solid waste. This includes leveraging existing relationships with municipal and industrial customers to cross-sell a broader range of specialized services, thereby reducing dependence on conventional disposal volumes and capturing new growth opportunities.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Waste Management announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, superseding the prior $1.5 billion authorization from 2023.
- The company plans to repurchase approximately $2 billion of its shares during 2026, with repurchases expected to resume after its fourth quarter 2025 financial results.
- Share repurchases amounted to $262 million in 2024, a decrease from $1.30 billion in 2023, as the company prioritized debt reduction following a major acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- Waste Management completed the acquisition of Stericycle for approximately $7.2 billion to $7.7 billion in November 2024, significantly expanding its presence in regulated medical waste and secure information destruction.
- In 2025, the company invested about $400 million in tuck-in acquisitions for solid waste and recycling businesses.
- For 2026, Waste Management expects to return to its typical range of $100 million to $200 million for tuck-in acquisitions.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $3.23 billion in 2024, an increase from $2.90 billion in 2023.
- In 2025, the company spent just under $2.6 billion on capital to support the business, along with an additional $633 million on sustainability growth investments.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $2.65 billion and $2.75 billion, including approximately $200 million directed towards high-return sustainability projects such as renewable natural gas facilities and recycling growth initiatives.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 141.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.8 |
| Rev LTM | 15,986 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,073 |
| FCF LTM | 463 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 645 |
| CFO LTM | 871 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 786 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.8 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.3 |
| P/EBIT | 20.3 |
| P/E | 30.4 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 11,482 | 10,955 | 10,533 | 9,940 | 7,540 |
| West Tier | 10,900 | 10,337 | 9,897 | 9,540 | 7,461 |
| Other Ancillary | 3,163 | 2,915 | 2,711 | 2,413 | |
| Healthcare Solutions | 2,951 | 413 | |||
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 1,866 | 1,890 | 1,576 | 1,760 | |
| Renewable Energy | 481 | 321 | 276 | 315 | |
| Corporate and Other | 52 | 48 | 46 | 50 | |
| Intercompany Elimination | -5,691 | -4,816 | -4,613 | -4,320 | |
| Other | 2,930 | ||||
| Total | 25,204 | 22,063 | 20,426 | 19,698 | 17,931 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 2,904 | 2,760 | 2,446 | 2,178 | 2,037 |
| West Tier | 2,889 | 2,693 | 2,383 | 2,182 | 2,103 |
| Renewable Energy | 135 | 99 | 79 | 132 | |
| Other Ancillary | -16 | -9 | -8 | 0 | |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | -80 | 86 | -44 | 128 | |
| Healthcare Solutions | -88 | -69 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -1,436 | -1,497 | -1,281 | -1,255 | -1,209 |
| Other | 34 | ||||
| Total | 4,308 | 4,063 | 3,575 | 3,365 | 2,965 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 16,099 | 15,328 | 14,328 | 14,194 | 14,269 |
| West Tier | 12,245 | 11,786 | 11,322 | 11,134 | 11,476 |
| Healthcare Solutions | 9,002 | 9,406 | 0 | ||
| Corporate and Other | 3,888 | 3,785 | 3,392 | 3,052 | 2,372 |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 2,718 | 2,686 | 2,282 | 1,918 | |
| Renewable Energy | 1,976 | 1,544 | 1,077 | 693 | |
| Other Ancillary | 801 | 779 | 783 | 686 | |
| Elimination of intercompany investments and advances | -894 | -747 | -361 | -310 | -295 |
| Other | 1,275 | ||||
| Total | 45,835 | 44,567 | 32,823 | 31,367 | 29,097 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $223.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 90.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/30/1991 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $220.01 | $219.55 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.4% | 19.4% |
| Downside Capture | -118.86 | -37.91 |
| Upside Capture | -72.66 | -32.51 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -41.0% | -18.3% |
WM Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.98 | -0.64 | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.18 | 0.19 |
| Up Beta | -0.64 | -0.24 | -0.17 | -0.26 | -0.11 | 0.27 |
| Down Beta | 0.54 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.08 | -0.12 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | -146% | -66% | -50% | -17% | -15% | 5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 27 | 64 | 122 | 404 |
| Down Capture | -122% | -165% | -28% | -28% | -27% | 20% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 36 | 60 | 127 | 343 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | -3.4% | 19.3% | -0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 26.7% | 16.3% | 1.27 | 0.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.40 | -18.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.7% | 27.7% | 0.57 | -5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.2% | 18.6% | 0.76 | 6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.8% | 0.56 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.6% | 42.4% | -1.11 | -13.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 11.6% | 18.7% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.6% | 0.61 | 35.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 30.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.4% | 18.3% | 0.73 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.26 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 40.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 54.1% | 0.39 | 5.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 15.6% | 19.5% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.4% | 20.0% | 0.63 | 53.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 50.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.24 | 13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 54.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.2% | 66.5% | 0.97 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -4.5% | -8.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | 3.4% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 9.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | -8.0% | -6.8% | -3.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -4.5% | -8.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | 3.4% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 9.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | -8.0% | -6.8% | -3.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.2% | -2.6% | -1.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | -0.2% | 2.4% | 5.8% |
| 10/24/2023 | 6.1% | 6.3% | 11.1% |
| 7/25/2023 | -4.0% | -5.4% | -7.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | 2.7% | 3.8% | -0.2% |
| 2/1/2023 | -0.2% | -2.2% | -3.1% |
| 10/26/2022 | -3.1% | -5.2% | -0.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 2.8% | 5.4% | 11.9% |
| 4/26/2022 | 5.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| 2/2/2022 | -1.1% | -3.1% | 2.0% |
| 10/26/2021 | -1.2% | -1.2% | 2.3% |
| 7/27/2021 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.9% |
| 4/27/2021 | 0.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 2/18/2021 | 1.1% | -0.3% | 9.2% |
| 11/2/2020 | 2.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% |
| 7/30/2020 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 4.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 26.43 Bil | 26.52 Bil | 26.62 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.52 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA margin | 30.8% | 30.9% | 31.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 30.9% for 2026 |
| 2026 Dividends and share repurchases | 3.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share repurchases | 2.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 26.43 Bil | 26.52 Bil | 26.62 Bil | 4.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 25.27 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | 8.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA margin | 30.8% | 30.9% | 31.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.9% for 2025 |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Dividends and share repurchases | 3.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Share repurchases | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 220.47 | 2,655 | 585,335 | 3,425,969 | Form |
| 2 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 245.07 | 7,979 | 1,955,414 | 24,177,626 | Form |
| 3 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 242.65 | 21 | 5,096 | 2,109,503 | Form |
| 4 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 243.13 | 21 | 5,106 | 1,148,469 | Form |
| 5 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.81 | 17,251 | 4,171,511 | 10,675,135 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 220.47 | 2,655 | 585,335 | 3,425,969 | Form |
| 2 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 245.07 | 7,979 | 1,955,414 | 24,177,626 | Form |
| 3 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 242.65 | 21 | 5,096 | 2,109,503 | Form |
| 4 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 243.13 | 21 | 5,106 | 1,148,469 | Form |
| 5 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.81 | 17,251 | 4,171,511 | 10,675,135 | Form |
| 6 | Hemmer, Tara J | SVP & Chief Sustainability Off | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.83 | 4,818 | 1,165,137 | 19,084,638 | Form |
| 7 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 229.67 | 37 | 8,498 | 2,008,628 | Form |
| 8 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 229.47 | 37 | 8,491 | 1,884,518 | Form |
| 9 | Smith, Donald J | Sr. VP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 233.48 | 12,194 | 2,847,055 | 1,406,484 | Form |
| 10 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2162026 | 234.50 | 7,352 | 1,724,052 | 3,644,087 | Form |
| 11 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 234.71 | 1,021 | 239,634 | 1,950,237 | Form |
| 12 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.87 | 5,706 | 1,317,316 | 50,810,385 | Form |
| 13 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.36 | 30,390 | 7,000,732 | 52,014,353 | Form |
| 14 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.00 | 657 | 151,110 | 58,922,090 | Form |
| 15 | Desantis, Christopher P | SVP Operations - East | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 218.85 | 215 | 47,053 | 2,092,397 | Form |
| 16 | Hemmer, Tara J | SVP & Chief Sustainability Off | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.71 | 690 | 151,596 | 18,397,125 | Form |
| 17 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.79 | 687 | 150,996 | 10,715,926 | Form |
| 18 | Smith, Donald J | Sr. VP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.59 | 690 | 151,514 | 2,937,169 | Form |
| 19 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.65 | 157 | 34,485 | 1,048,995 | Form |
| 20 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.49 | 690 | 151,445 | 23,404,783 | Form |
| 21 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.01 | 690 | 151,114 | 5,013,415 | Form |
| 22 | Boettcher, Charles C | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.32 | 689 | 151,111 | 12,316,880 | Form |
| 23 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 218.62 | 270 | 59,028 | 1,933,200 | Form |
| 24 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.57 | 220 | 48,306 | 2,048,664 | Form |
| 25 | Varkey, Johnson | SVP-Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.63 | 428 | 94,004 | 2,245,501 | Form |
| 26 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 217.06 | 1,380 | 299,543 | 3,373,056 | Form |
| 27 | Menke, Sean E | ASM Assets, LP | Buy | 11042025 | 196.42 | 2,000 | 392,840 | 1,436,617 | Form | |
| 28 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 225.19 | 100 | 22,520 | 920,926 | Form |
| 29 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6022025 | 240.00 | 1,941 | 465,840 | 4,060,738 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Environmental & Facilities Services Resources |
| Waste360 |
| Waste Dive |
| FacilitiesNet |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/24/2026