Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $214.28 | Market Cap: $86.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $214.28Market Cap: $86.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Waste Management's (WM) stock movement by -4.2% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Waste Management reported a miss on its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $1.98 against an expected $2.03, and revenue reached $6.44 billion, falling short of the $6.5 billion forecast. The stock experienced an immediate negative reaction, dropping 3.52% in pre-market trading following the announcement on October 28, 2025.
2. The company revised its total revenue outlook for the full fiscal year 2025 downwards. Waste Management now anticipates total revenue for 2025 to be approximately $25.275 billion, landing at the lower end of its previously projected range.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WM Return | 5% | 44% | -4% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 107% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 43% | 3% | 25% | 24% | -1% | 154% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WM Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 71% | 46% | 60% | 60% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WM Max Drawdown | -23% | -7% | -16% | -5% | -1% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -19% | -7% | -6% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RSG, ACM, CLH, CWST, MDRN. See WM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 173 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1512 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RSG, ACM, CLH, CWST, MDRN
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -17.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2022. A -17.1% loss requires a 20.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Waste Management
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 10,533 | 9,940 | 7,540 | 6,370 | |
| West Tier | 9,897 | 9,540 | 7,461 | 6,584 | |
| Other Ancillary | 2,711 | 2,413 | |||
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 1,576 | 1,760 | |||
| Waste management (WM) Renewable Energy | 276 | 315 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 46 | 50 | |||
| Intercompany Elimination | -4,613 | -4,320 | |||
| Other | 2,930 | 2,264 | 2,195 | ||
| Solid Waste - Tier 1 | 4,995 | ||||
| Solid Waste - Tier 2 | 3,088 | ||||
| Solid Waste - Tier 3 | 5,177 | ||||
| Total | 20,426 | 19,698 | 17,931 | 15,218 | 15,455 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 2,446 | 2,178 | 2,037 | 1,672 | |
| West Tier | 2,383 | 2,182 | 2,103 | 1,800 | |
| Waste management (WM) Renewable Energy | 79 | 132 | |||
| Other Ancillary | -8 | 0 | |||
| Recycling Processing and Sales | -44 | 128 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -1,281 | -1,255 | -1,209 | -996 | -906 |
| Other | 34 | -42 | -161 | ||
| Solid Waste - Tier 1 | 1,719 | ||||
| Solid Waste - Tier 2 | 881 | ||||
| Solid Waste - Tier 3 | 1,173 | ||||
| Total | 3,575 | 3,365 | 2,965 | 2,434 | 2,706 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 14,328 | 14,194 | 14,269 | 14,274 | |
| West Tier | 11,322 | 11,134 | 11,476 | 11,501 | |
| Corporate and Other | 3,392 | 3,052 | 2,372 | 1,810 | 5,042 |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 2,282 | 1,918 | |||
| Waste management (WM) Renewable Energy | 1,077 | 693 | |||
| Other Ancillary | 783 | 686 | |||
| Waste management (WM) Healthcare Solutions | 0 | ||||
| Elimination of intercompany investments and advances | -361 | -310 | -295 | -304 | -267 |
| Other | 1,275 | 2,064 | 1,648 | ||
| Solid Waste - Tier 1 | 7,519 | ||||
| Solid Waste - Tier 2 | 5,558 | ||||
| Solid Waste - Tier 3 | 8,243 | ||||
| Total | 32,823 | 31,367 | 29,097 | 29,345 | 27,743 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10282024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | MENKE SEAN E | 11042025 | Buy | 196.42 | 2,000 | 392,840 | 1,436,617 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |