Tearsheet

Waste Connections (WCN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $173.45 | Market Cap: $44.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Waste Connections (WCN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $173.45
Market Cap: $44.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WCN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. I do not have access to future market data or news to provide the requested analysis.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WCN Return14%34%-2%13%16%2%99%
Peers Return10%40%-1%27%23%2%143%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WCN Win Rate58%58%33%58%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate58%73%44%60%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WCN Max Drawdown-21%-5%-15%-4%-2%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-7%-18%-5%-3%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WM, RSG, CLH, CWST, MDRN. See WCN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWCNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven83 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven187 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-12.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven14.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven32 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven504 days1480 days

Compare to WM, RSG, CLH, CWST, MDRN


In The Past

Waste Connections's stock fell -20.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -20.8% loss requires a 26.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Waste Connections (WCN)

Better Bets than Waste Connections (WCN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WCN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Waste Connections

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WCNWMRSGCLHCWSTMDRNMedian
NameWaste Co.Waste Ma.Republic.Clean Ha.Casella .Modern M. 
Mkt Price174.26216.15215.37237.0195.68-215.37
Mkt Cap44.887.167.112.76.1-44.8
Rev LTM9,35424,78416,5025,9621,795-9,354
Op Inc LTM1,7624,3723,32865293-1,762
FCF LTM1,2342,4022,52944178-1,234
FCF 3Y Avg1,2192,0592,11834074-1,219
CFO LTM2,4265,8564,337816343-2,426
CFO 3Y Avg2,2455,1683,893764271-2,245

Growth & Margins

WCNWMRSGCLHCWSTMDRNMedian
NameWaste Co.Waste Ma.Republic.Clean Ha.Casella .Modern M. 
Rev Chg LTM7.6%15.9%4.3%2.9%20.5%-7.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.3%8.6%8.5%6.0%19.6%-8.6%
Rev Chg Q5.1%14.9%3.3%1.3%17.9%-5.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%3.5%0.8%0.3%4.3%-1.3%
Op Mgn LTM18.8%17.6%20.2%10.9%5.2%-17.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.6%18.4%19.3%11.3%6.9%-18.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.2%-0.3%-0.0%-0.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM25.9%23.6%26.3%13.7%19.1%-23.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.0%23.3%24.8%13.4%18.2%-23.3%
FCF/Rev LTM13.2%9.7%15.3%7.4%4.4%-9.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.2%9.3%13.5%5.9%5.2%-9.3%

Valuation

WCNWMRSGCLHCWSTMDRNMedian
NameWaste Co.Waste Ma.Republic.Clean Ha.Casella .Modern M. 
Mkt Cap44.887.167.112.76.1-44.8
P/S4.83.64.32.13.4-3.6
P/EBIT40.121.822.918.373.1-22.9
P/E72.634.733.932.0394.8-34.7
P/CFO18.615.216.515.217.6-16.5
Total Yield2.1%4.3%4.0%3.1%0.3%-3.1%
Dividend Yield0.7%1.5%1.0%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%2.6%3.6%3.0%1.4%-2.9%
D/E0.20.30.20.20.2-0.2
Net D/E0.20.30.20.20.2-0.2

Returns

WCNWMRSGCLHCWSTMDRNMedian
NameWaste Co.Waste Ma.Republic.Clean Ha.Casella .Modern M. 
1M Rtn5.1%9.8%4.9%13.6%7.8%-7.8%
3M Rtn-3.4%-3.3%-7.1%-1.6%0.1%--3.3%
6M Rtn-8.7%-8.9%-14.8%5.8%-18.3%--8.9%
12M Rtn-8.4%-2.6%1.3%-7.5%-16.0%--7.5%
3Y Rtn22.4%32.9%59.0%91.1%10.4%-32.9%
1M Excs Rtn5.2%9.9%4.9%13.6%7.9%-7.9%
3M Excs Rtn-9.0%-8.9%-13.0%-8.7%-5.2%--8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-23.4%-23.6%-29.5%-9.0%-33.0%--23.6%
12M Excs Rtn-22.4%-17.5%-13.9%-22.4%-29.0%--22.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.6%-35.2%-9.2%25.3%-60.1%--35.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commercial2,4772,1761,8131,6101,593
Residential2,1251,8911,6741,5281,381
Landfill1,4831,3291,2331,1471,133
Industrial and construction roll off1,3331,184954833841
Transfer1,1981,026859778771
Exploration and Production (E&P)232211139159272
Intermodal and other172188152118121
Recycling1472052058664
Intercompany-1,146-998-879-814-788
Total8,0227,2126,1515,4465,389


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,796,005
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.4%
Average Daily Volume1,280,353
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.40
Basic Shares Quantity256,948,902
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0GUILLET EDWARD E10302025Sell174.449,0001,569,9282,596,137Form