It's like **Waste Management (WM)**.

Think of it as a **utility company** for trash and recycling services.

• Solid Waste Collection: Provides collection services for non-hazardous solid waste to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
• Solid Waste Disposal: Operates landfills for the safe and environmentally sound disposal of collected waste.
• Solid Waste Transfer: Manages transfer stations to consolidate collected waste before long-haul transport to disposal facilities.
• Recycling Services: Offers collection, processing, and marketing of recyclable materials from various sources.
• Oilfield Waste Services: Provides specialized services for the collection, treatment, and disposal of non-hazardous waste generated by oil and natural gas exploration and production.

Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) provides integrated solid waste services, including collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. Given the nature of its business, Waste Connections serves a highly diversified customer base and does not typically have major customers that are individual companies whose names would be disclosed due to their outsized revenue contribution.

Instead, Waste Connections primarily serves various categories of customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal sectors. The company's revenue is fragmented across millions of individual accounts rather than being concentrated with a few large entities.

The main categories of customers that Waste Connections serves are:

• Residential Customers: These include single-family homes and multi-family dwellings. Services are often provided through direct subscription agreements with homeowners or through contracts with municipalities that then serve their residents.
• Commercial Customers: This category encompasses a wide range of businesses, such as retail stores, offices, restaurants, hotels, and other service-oriented companies that require waste collection and recycling services.
• Industrial Customers: This segment includes manufacturing facilities, construction sites, and energy sector operations (e.g., oil and gas exploration and production waste services). These customers often have specific or large-scale waste management needs.

• PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
• Daimler Truck AG (DTGFF)
• Volvo Group (VOLVY)
• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

1. Regulatory and Environmental Compliance Risks: Waste Connections operates in a highly regulated industry and is subject to extensive and increasingly stringent environmental, health, and safety regulations. Compliance with these evolving regulations can lead to increased operational costs, limit growth opportunities, and necessitate higher capital expenditures. A significant concern includes the potential regulation of emerging contaminants, such as PFAS, which could result in substantial remediation costs. Furthermore, the company's landfill operations are exposed to risks like waste mass instability, the release of hazardous materials or odors, and subsurface chemical reactions that can cause elevated landfill temperatures. An example of this is the ongoing Elevated Temperature Landfill (ETLF) event at the Chiquita Canyon Landfill, which has already incurred significant remediation expenses and is expected to continue impacting the company financially. Failure to secure or renew necessary operating permits for its landfills could also materially harm the company's financial condition.

2. Economic Pressures and Market Competition: The waste services industry is intensely competitive, with Waste Connections facing pressure from other private companies and governmental service providers. This competition can affect the company's ability to win and retain contracts, thereby impacting revenues. Macroeconomic factors also pose a risk, including inflationary pressures that drive up operating costs and capital expenditures. The volatile market prices of diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) directly influence fuel and transportation costs, which can adversely affect operating margins. Additionally, labor costs, availability, and turnover represent operational challenges that can increase expenses. Economic downturns can lead to reduced waste generation and lower demand for services, while a deceleration in construction or shale activity can specifically pressure high-margin special waste and exploration and production (E&P) volumes.

3. High Levels of Long-Term Debt: Waste Connections carries a substantial amount of long-term debt, which stood at $8.337 billion as of June 30, 2025. Effective management of this debt is crucial for maintaining the company's financial health and ensuring sustainable growth. This significant debt level also exposes the company to sensitivity to financing conditions, which could impact its ability to fund future operations or acquisitions.

The accelerating global shift towards a circular economy model and aggressive waste reduction/diversion initiatives.

Waste Connections (WCN) operates primarily in solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services across North America, including both the United States and Canada. They also provide specialized services such as E&P (Exploration & Production) waste treatment and intermodal services.

The addressable markets for their main products and services are as follows:

• Solid Waste Management (Collection, Transfer, and Disposal)

  • For North America, the solid waste management market was valued at approximately USD 75.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 98.27 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.03% from 2025 to 2033.

  • In the United States, the solid waste management market was estimated at USD 76.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 117.15 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.40% from 2025 to 2034.

    More broadly, the U.S. waste management market size was estimated at USD 100.74 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 200.0 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.43% during the forecast period of 2025–2035.

• Recycling Services

  • The North America waste recycling services market is expected to reach USD 99.2 billion by 2032. The market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 3.9% during the forecast period.

  • The U.S. waste recycling services market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7% from 2025 to 2033.

  • Globally, the waste recycling services market size was valued at USD 65.0864 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 109.7962 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.1% from 2025 to 2033.

• E&P (Exploration & Production) Waste Treatment, Recovery, and Disposal Services: null
• Intermodal Services: null

Waste Connections (symbol: WCN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic acquisitions, disciplined pricing strategies, leveraging improvements in commodity markets, enhancing operational efficiency through technology, and investing in sustainability initiatives.

Here are the key drivers:

1. Strategic Acquisitions: Waste Connections has consistently highlighted an aggressive acquisition strategy and a robust pipeline of potential deals. The company completed a record year of private company acquisitions in 2024, contributing significantly to annualized revenue, and anticipates continued above-average acquisition activity in 2025 and beyond. For example, acquisitions contributed about $77 million in Q3 2025 and are expected to contribute over $300 million in annualized revenue in 2025, from deals already closed or signed.
2. Core Solid Waste Pricing Increases: The company has demonstrated a strong ability to implement core solid waste pricing increases, often exceeding the cost of inflation. This focus on price-led organic growth is a consistent theme in their financial reports, contributing to both revenue growth and margin expansion. In Q3 2025, core solid waste pricing was up 6.3%, putting them on pace for approximately 6.5% for the full year.
3. Improved Commodity-Related Activities: While commodity values can be volatile, Waste Connections expects to capitalize on improved commodity-related activities for future revenue upside. Fluctuations in recycled commodities and renewable energy credits have impacted margins, but an improvement in these areas could provide additional revenue.
4. Technological Advancements and Operational Efficiency: Waste Connections is investing in technology and digitization, including implementing AI-driven applications, to enhance operational efficiency, improve cost management, and ultimately expand margins. Improved employee retention, a result of operational focus, also supports better execution. These efforts are expected to unlock savings and improve service delivery, with a greater focus on the customer experience.
5. Sustainability Investments: New investments in sustainability initiatives are projected to contribute to Waste Connections' financial performance. These investments are expected to add to annual EBITDA and contribute to free cash flow growth over the next few years.

Share Repurchases

• Waste Connections renewed its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) in August 2025, authorizing the repurchase of up to 12,855,691 common shares, representing 5% of its outstanding shares, through August 2026. This program allows for a potential investment of C$3.32 billion at a share price of C$258.45.
• In October 2025, the company announced recent share repurchases totaling over US$440 million as part of ongoing buyback programs. In Q3 2025 alone, approximately 1% of shares outstanding (around 2.4 million shares) were repurchased.
• The company repurchased shares valued at $425 million in 2022, $339 million in 2021, and $105.7 million in 2020.

Outbound Investments

• In 2024, Waste Connections completed 24 acquisitions, contributing approximately $750 million in annualized revenues.
• Year-to-date in Q3 2025, the company completed or had under definitive agreement approximately $300 million in annualized revenue acquisitions, with an additional $100-$200 million expected to close by 2026.
• A significant acquisition in 2024 was Secure Energy's E&P waste disposal assets in Western Canada for $726.1 million, expected to add approximately $325 million in revenue in 2024. In 2021, the company acquired E.L. Harvey & Sons Inc., which had approximately $110 million in annualized revenue.

Capital Expenditures

• Waste Connections made $1.056 billion in capital expenditures for property and equipment during 2024. For 2025, capital expenditures are estimated to be between $1.200 billion and $1.250 billion.
• Expected capital expenditures for 2025 include $100 million to $150 million for renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities.
• The primary focus of capital expenditures includes landfill cell construction, landfill development, landfill closure activities, intermodal facility construction, and investments in technology for productivity and efficiency.