Waste Connections (WCN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $173.45 | Market Cap: $44.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Waste Connections (WCN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $173.45Market Cap: $44.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WCN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. I do not have access to future market data or news to provide the requested analysis.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WCN Return | 14% | 34% | -2% | 13% | 16% | 2% | 99% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 40% | -1% | 27% | 23% | 2% | 143% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WCN Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 73% | 44% | 60% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WCN Max Drawdown | -21% | -5% | -15% | -4% | -2% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -7% | -18% | -5% | -3% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WM, RSG, CLH, CWST, MDRN. See WCN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WCN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 187 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 504 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WM, RSG, CLH, CWST, MDRN
In The Past
Waste Connections's stock fell -20.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -20.8% loss requires a 26.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WCN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Waste Connections
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 215.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 44.8 |
| Rev LTM | 9,354 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,762 |
| FCF LTM | 1,234 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,219 |
| CFO LTM | 2,426 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 44.8 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 22.9 |
| P/E | 34.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | 2,477 | 2,176 | 1,813 | 1,610 | 1,593 |
| Residential | 2,125 | 1,891 | 1,674 | 1,528 | 1,381 |
| Landfill | 1,483 | 1,329 | 1,233 | 1,147 | 1,133 |
| Industrial and construction roll off | 1,333 | 1,184 | 954 | 833 | 841 |
| Transfer | 1,198 | 1,026 | 859 | 778 | 771 |
| Exploration and Production (E&P) | 232 | 211 | 139 | 159 | 272 |
| Intermodal and other | 172 | 188 | 152 | 118 | 121 |
| Recycling | 147 | 205 | 205 | 86 | 64 |
| Intercompany | -1,146 | -998 | -879 | -814 | -788 |
| Total | 8,022 | 7,212 | 6,151 | 5,446 | 5,389 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | GUILLET EDWARD E | 10302025 | Sell | 174.44 | 9,000 | 1,569,928 | 2,596,137 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |