Upwork (UPWK)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $0 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Upwork (UPWK)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $0Market Cap: $-Sector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 15% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work. Themes include Remote Work Platforms, Gig Economy Platforms, and Talent Marketplaces. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7% Key risksUPWK key risks include [1] the potential for AI and automation to disrupt its core freelance job market, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work. Themes include Remote Work Platforms, Gig Economy Platforms, and Talent Marketplaces. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7% |
| Key risksUPWK key risks include [1] the potential for AI and automation to disrupt its core freelance job market, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 10/31/2026
Upwork (UPWK) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results and Cautious Outlook.
Upwork reported a mixed bag for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) on August 10, 2026, which led to a lack of strong directional movement in the stock. While the company beat analyst expectations on adjusted earnings per share (EPS), reporting $0.41 against an estimated $0.34 (a 20.59% beat), it also announced a 2% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $191.7 million and a 4% decrease in Gross Services Volume (GSV) to $966.4 million. Crucially, the company lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $730 million to $750 million, and its fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance to between $176 million and $184 million, signaling ongoing challenges. This combination of an EPS beat with declining year-over-year revenue and a reduced outlook contributed to the stock remaining largely at the same level as investors weighed positive profitability against slowing top-line growth.
2. Persistent Headwinds from AI Automation and Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Changes.
A significant factor constraining Upwork's stock movement was the continued pressure from AI-driven automation and recent changes to Google's SEO algorithms. In its fiscal Q2 2026 report, Upwork acknowledged a "challenging operating environment" where "lower-complexity work continues to shift toward automation." This trend has led to a 4% year-over-year decline in active clients to 763,000 and a deceleration in GSV to -3.6%. Furthermore, Google's May/June 2026 SEO changes impacted free referral traffic and new customer acquisition, necessitating an additional marketing spend of $5 million to $10 million in the second half of fiscal 2026, which is expected to pressure profit margins. These macroeconomic and platform-specific headwinds limited the stock's upside potential throughout the period.
Show more
Upwork (UPWK) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results and Cautious Outlook.
Upwork reported a mixed bag for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) on August 10, 2026, which led to a lack of strong directional movement in the stock. While the company beat analyst expectations on adjusted earnings per share (EPS), reporting $0.41 against an estimated $0.34 (a 20.59% beat), it also announced a 2% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $191.7 million and a 4% decrease in Gross Services Volume (GSV) to $966.4 million. Crucially, the company lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $730 million to $750 million, and its fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance to between $176 million and $184 million, signaling ongoing challenges. This combination of an EPS beat with declining year-over-year revenue and a reduced outlook contributed to the stock remaining largely at the same level as investors weighed positive profitability against slowing top-line growth.
2. Persistent Headwinds from AI Automation and Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Changes.
A significant factor constraining Upwork's stock movement was the continued pressure from AI-driven automation and recent changes to Google's SEO algorithms. In its fiscal Q2 2026 report, Upwork acknowledged a "challenging operating environment" where "lower-complexity work continues to shift toward automation." This trend has led to a 4% year-over-year decline in active clients to 763,000 and a deceleration in GSV to -3.6%. Furthermore, Google's May/June 2026 SEO changes impacted free referral traffic and new customer acquisition, necessitating an additional marketing spend of $5 million to $10 million in the second half of fiscal 2026, which is expected to pressure profit margins. These macroeconomic and platform-specific headwinds limited the stock's upside potential throughout the period.
Show more
Updated on 10/31/2026
Upwork (UPWK) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results and Cautious Outlook.
Upwork reported a mixed bag for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) on August 10, 2026, which led to a lack of strong directional movement in the stock. While the company beat analyst expectations on adjusted earnings per share (EPS), reporting $0.41 against an estimated $0.34 (a 20.59% beat), it also announced a 2% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $191.7 million and a 4% decrease in Gross Services Volume (GSV) to $966.4 million. Crucially, the company lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $730 million to $750 million, and its fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance to between $176 million and $184 million, signaling ongoing challenges. This combination of an EPS beat with declining year-over-year revenue and a reduced outlook contributed to the stock remaining largely at the same level as investors weighed positive profitability against slowing top-line growth.
2. Persistent Headwinds from AI Automation and Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Changes.
A significant factor constraining Upwork's stock movement was the continued pressure from AI-driven automation and recent changes to Google's SEO algorithms. In its fiscal Q2 2026 report, Upwork acknowledged a "challenging operating environment" where "lower-complexity work continues to shift toward automation." This trend has led to a 4% year-over-year decline in active clients to 763,000 and a deceleration in GSV to -3.6%. Furthermore, Google's May/June 2026 SEO changes impacted free referral traffic and new customer acquisition, necessitating an additional marketing spend of $5 million to $10 million in the second half of fiscal 2026, which is expected to pressure profit margins. These macroeconomic and platform-specific headwinds limited the stock's upside potential throughout the period.
3. Counterbalancing Growth in High-Value AI-Related Work and Skilled Freelancing.
Despite the challenges, Upwork experienced growth in higher-value, AI-related work and a broader acceleration in skilled freelancing, providing underlying support for the stock. In fiscal Q2 2026, GSV from AI-related work increased by more than 22% year-over-year, with the AI Strategy & Consulting sub-category growing over 50%. Upwork also launched its Model Context Protocol (MCP) to integrate AI tools with its marketplace, connecting with platforms like Claude and ChatGPT. The company's "Future Workforce Index 2026" (released July 14, 2026) indicated that 38% of U.S. knowledge workers were freelancing, up from 28% the prior year, with freelancers performing complex AI-augmented work seeing their earnings increase by 45% year-over-year. This strategic pivot towards and growth in more specialized, AI-augmented freelance opportunities helped to mitigate the negative impact of declining lower-complexity work, preventing a steeper stock decline.
4. Neutral Analyst Sentiment and Revised Price Targets.
Analyst sentiment remained largely neutral throughout the period, contributing to the stock's stability. Post-fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, several firms reiterated "Hold" ratings and adjusted their price targets downward. For example, Scotiabank cut its target from $10.00 to $8.00 on August 11, 2026, and Canaccord Genuity Group decreased its price objective from $10.00 to $9.00 on August 12, 2026. As of late October 2026, the consensus analyst rating was a "Hold," with an average price target ranging from $9.29 to $9.88, which was close to the stock's trading range during the period (typically between $8 and $10). This consensus "Hold" rating and the re-evaluation of price targets reflected the mixed financial signals and balanced growth drivers, providing little impetus for significant upward or downward movement.
Show less
Upwork (UPWK) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results and Cautious Outlook.
Upwork reported a mixed bag for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) on August 10, 2026, which led to a lack of strong directional movement in the stock. While the company beat analyst expectations on adjusted earnings per share (EPS), reporting $0.41 against an estimated $0.34 (a 20.59% beat), it also announced a 2% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $191.7 million and a 4% decrease in Gross Services Volume (GSV) to $966.4 million. Crucially, the company lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $730 million to $750 million, and its fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance to between $176 million and $184 million, signaling ongoing challenges. This combination of an EPS beat with declining year-over-year revenue and a reduced outlook contributed to the stock remaining largely at the same level as investors weighed positive profitability against slowing top-line growth.
2. Persistent Headwinds from AI Automation and Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Changes.
A significant factor constraining Upwork's stock movement was the continued pressure from AI-driven automation and recent changes to Google's SEO algorithms. In its fiscal Q2 2026 report, Upwork acknowledged a "challenging operating environment" where "lower-complexity work continues to shift toward automation." This trend has led to a 4% year-over-year decline in active clients to 763,000 and a deceleration in GSV to -3.6%. Furthermore, Google's May/June 2026 SEO changes impacted free referral traffic and new customer acquisition, necessitating an additional marketing spend of $5 million to $10 million in the second half of fiscal 2026, which is expected to pressure profit margins. These macroeconomic and platform-specific headwinds limited the stock's upside potential throughout the period.
3. Counterbalancing Growth in High-Value AI-Related Work and Skilled Freelancing.
Despite the challenges, Upwork experienced growth in higher-value, AI-related work and a broader acceleration in skilled freelancing, providing underlying support for the stock. In fiscal Q2 2026, GSV from AI-related work increased by more than 22% year-over-year, with the AI Strategy & Consulting sub-category growing over 50%. Upwork also launched its Model Context Protocol (MCP) to integrate AI tools with its marketplace, connecting with platforms like Claude and ChatGPT. The company's "Future Workforce Index 2026" (released July 14, 2026) indicated that 38% of U.S. knowledge workers were freelancing, up from 28% the prior year, with freelancers performing complex AI-augmented work seeing their earnings increase by 45% year-over-year. This strategic pivot towards and growth in more specialized, AI-augmented freelance opportunities helped to mitigate the negative impact of declining lower-complexity work, preventing a steeper stock decline.
4. Neutral Analyst Sentiment and Revised Price Targets.
Analyst sentiment remained largely neutral throughout the period, contributing to the stock's stability. Post-fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, several firms reiterated "Hold" ratings and adjusted their price targets downward. For example, Scotiabank cut its target from $10.00 to $8.00 on August 11, 2026, and Canaccord Genuity Group decreased its price objective from $10.00 to $9.00 on August 12, 2026. As of late October 2026, the consensus analyst rating was a "Hold," with an average price target ranging from $9.29 to $9.88, which was close to the stock's trading range during the period (typically between $8 and $10). This consensus "Hold" rating and the re-evaluation of price targets reflected the mixed financial signals and balanced growth drivers, providing little impetus for significant upward or downward movement.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.1% change in UPWK stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.16 | 9.15 | -0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 791 | 787 | -0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 12.9% | -6.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.8 | 11.1 | 3.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 128 | 124 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.9% | -6.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.6% change in UPWK stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.35 | 9.15 | -11.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 788 | 787 | -0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.7% | 12.9% | -11.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.7 | 11.1 | -4.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 131 | 124 | 5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -11.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | -3.9% | -12.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -42.6% change in UPWK stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -59.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.94 | 9.15 | -42.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 773 | 787 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.7% | 12.9% | -59.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.6 | 11.1 | 29.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 132 | 124 | 6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -42.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -42.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 18.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.9% | 2.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.4% change in UPWK stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.45 | 9.15 | -12.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 650 | 787 | 21.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 1.4 | -33.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 134 | 124 | 8.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -12.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 77.0% | 22.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPWK Return | -1% | -69% | 42% | 10% | 21% | -54% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 40% | -20% | 26% | -9% | -25% | 50% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPWK Win Rate | 58% | 8% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 52% | 43% | 43% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPWK Max Drawdown | -48% | -71% | -48% | -42% | -33% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -40% | -21% | -27% | -40% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, RHI, MAN, KFY, KELYA. See UPWK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Upwork's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | UPWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Upwork's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Upwork (UPWK)
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Upwork Inc. (UPWK) operates a leading global work marketplace designed to connect businesses with independent professionals and agencies. Essentially, it functions as an online platform where companies can find and hire freelancers for a wide range of skills, enabling businesses to streamline their talent sourcing, outreach, and contracting processes for remote engagements.
The company offers a comprehensive suite of functionalities within its marketplace to facilitate these connections. Key services include tools for communication and collaboration, simplified invoicing for talent, and payment protection. Its marketplace offerings cater to various business needs, ranging from Upwork Basic and Upwork Plus for smaller clients, to Upwork Enterprise for larger organizations, alongside Upwork Payroll and specialized managed and internet escrow agency services.
Upwork's primary customers are businesses seeking flexible talent, and the independent professionals and agencies providing those services. It serves a broad international market, including the United States, India, and the Philippines, across diverse skill categories such as sales and marketing, customer service, data science, design, and web/mobile/software development.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Upwork:
LinkedIn for freelance projects.
Uber for professional services.
An online marketplace like Amazon, but for hiring freelance talent.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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- Upwork Work Marketplace: A core platform connecting businesses with independent professionals and agencies for various projects and services.
- Upwork Basic: The standard offering within the Upwork Work Marketplace, providing fundamental access to talent and tools.
- Upwork Plus: A premium subscription tier of the Upwork Work Marketplace, offering enhanced features and support for clients.
- Upwork Enterprise: A customized solution within the Upwork Work Marketplace designed for larger organizations needing extensive talent management and specialized services.
- Upwork Payroll: A service that streamlines the process of managing and making payments to independent professionals and agencies engaged through the platform.
- Managed Services: Offerings where Upwork provides assistance in sourcing, vetting, and managing engagements with talent for businesses.
- Internet Escrow Agency Services: Services that provide secure payment processing and project protection for transactions conducted on the Upwork Work Marketplace.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Upwork (UPWK) primarily sells to other companies (businesses) as its major customers.
The company operates a work marketplace that connects businesses with independent professionals and agencies globally. These client businesses utilize Upwork's platform to streamline workflows for talent sourcing, outreach, contracting, communication, and payments for remote engagements.
Upwork serves a diverse range of businesses, from small and medium-sized enterprises to larger organizations, reflected in its tiered marketplace offerings such as Upwork Basic, Upwork Plus, and Upwork Enterprise. These businesses span various industries and require talent across categories including sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, design and creative, and web, mobile, and software development.
However, Upwork Inc. does not publicly disclose the names of its specific major customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Hayden Brown, President and CEO
Hayden Brown is the President and CEO of Upwork, a position she assumed in January 2020 after serving eight years in various leadership roles at the company. She joined Upwork in 2011 as a product manager and subsequently held positions including chief product officer and chief marketing officer. Before her tenure at Upwork, Brown was the head of corporate development at LivePerson and held strategy and corporate development roles at Microsoft. She began her career as a business analyst at McKinsey & Company.
Erica Gessert, Chief Financial Officer
Erica Gessert serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Upwork, a role she took on in April 2023. In July 2025, she also assumed the role of Chief Accounting Officer. Prior to joining Upwork, Gessert spent eight years at PayPal, where her roles included senior vice president of finance and analytics, and chief transformation officer. Her career also includes six years at telecommunications provider Sprint, where she held positions such as VP of finance operations and CFO of Sprint Prepaid, as well as executive positions at Virgin Mobile.
Anthony Kappus, Chief Operating Officer
Anthony Kappus was appointed as Upwork's first Chief Operating Officer, effective September 2, 2025. He brings extensive operational expertise and marketplace experience to Upwork, having previously worked at Redfin. In his role as COO, Kappus is responsible for leading a team that spans legal, information security, payments & trust, customer support, and communications.
Andrew Rabinovich, Chief Technology Officer
Andrew Rabinovich was elevated to Chief Technology Officer in August 2025, expanding his responsibilities to include leading engineering and IT alongside AI initiatives. Under his leadership, Upwork's AI initiatives, including Uma™, have contributed to a significant increase in gross services volume. Before joining Upwork, Rabinovich co-founded Headroom, an AI-powered video conferencing platform, which was acquired by Upwork in 2023. He also held R&D leadership positions at Google and was the head of AI at Magic Leap.
Melissa Waters, Chief Marketing Officer
Melissa Waters joined Upwork as its Chief Marketing Officer in January 2022. She is an experienced marketing executive with over 15 years of experience in brand building, team development, and driving business impact for high-growth companies. Prior to Upwork, Waters served as global vice president of marketing at Instagram (Meta). Her previous roles also include leading marketing, merchandising, and business development for Hims & Hers, and executive marketing positions at Lyft and Pandora.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Upwork (symbol: UPWK) faces several key risks to its business:
- Regulatory Risks, Particularly Worker Classification: Upwork's business model relies on connecting businesses with independent professionals, making it highly susceptible to evolving government regulations and oversight, especially concerning worker classification laws. Non-compliance with these complex and frequently changing laws, particularly in the U.S. and internationally, could lead to significant legal and financial repercussions. Such regulatory shifts could also increase operational costs and necessitate fundamental changes to the company's business strategy and offerings.
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Upwork operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving market for freelance talent. It faces significant competition from traditional staffing firms, other online freelance platforms, and specialized niche marketplaces. Competitors may offer similar services at lower prices or introduce newer technologies and business models, potentially eroding Upwork's market share and making it challenging to attract and retain both clients and independent professionals. The increasing number of freelancers also contributes to heightened competition and potentially lower rates, which could diminish the platform's appeal to talent.
- Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI): While Upwork is investing in and leveraging AI, the rapid advancement and integration of artificial intelligence technologies present both opportunities and significant risks. These risks include the potential for AI to displace certain freelance roles, thereby reducing demand for services offered on the platform. Additionally, the integration of generative AI tools introduces challenges in maintaining data privacy and security, as well as managing potential deficiencies or biases in AI outputs. Increased regulatory scrutiny surrounding AI and its ethical implications also poses a risk to Upwork's operations.
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The rapid advancement and widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation tools capable of performing or significantly assisting with many tasks traditionally carried out by human freelancers. This includes generative AI for content creation (writing, design, marketing copy), coding assistance (software development), data analysis, and customer service roles. As businesses increasingly integrate these AI tools directly into their workflows, the demand for human freelance labor in these categories on platforms like Upwork could diminish, leading to a reduction in the volume and value of projects available to independent professionals.
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Upwork primarily operates within the global freelance platforms market.
The global freelance platforms market demonstrates significant growth, with various projections:
- It was valued at USD 4.39 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% from 2023 to 2030.
- In 2023, the market size was projected to reach $19.14 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 17.3%.
- The market size was estimated at USD 6.37 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 24.16 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 18.6% from 2026 to 2033.
- Another estimate placed the market value at nearly $7.32 billion in 2024, with expectations to grow to $16.45 billion in 2029 at a rate of 17.55%, and further to $37.71 billion in 2034 at a CAGR of 18.05% from 2029.
- The global freelance platforms market size is expected to reach $20.12 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 19.4%.
- In 2026, the market is estimated to be USD 8.9 billion and is forecast to reach USD 21.97 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 16.32%.
- The global freelance platforms market was valued at $4.53 billion in 2022 and is forecasted to reach $9.19 billion by 2027, implying a CAGR of 15.2%.
Regionally, North America is a significant market for freelance platforms:
- North America accounted for 34% of the revenue share in the global freelance platforms market in 2023.
- It held 30.3% of the revenue share in the freelance platforms industry in 2025, with the U.S. dominating this region.
- North America was the largest region in the freelance platforms market in 2025.
- In 2024, North America accounted for 38.75% of the global freelance platforms market, equating to $2.83 billion.
- The U.S. alone represented about 31% of the global freelance platforms market share in 2024.
The broader global gig economy, which encompasses the freelance platforms market, was estimated at $5.4 trillion in revenue in 2021.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Upwork (NASDAQ: UPWK) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Advancement in AI-Powered Solutions and the AI-Native Platform: Upwork is heavily focused on integrating artificial intelligence into its platform to enhance workflows, expand AI-specific work categories, and facilitate human-AI collaboration. The company's "Human-plus-AI" solution, including its AI work agent Uma, is expected to boost client productivity and increase spend per customer, positioning Upwork to capture a greater share of the AI Agent market. AI categories of work already represent a significant annualized gross services volume (GSV) and have shown substantial year-over-year growth.
- Expansion into the Enterprise Market with "Lifted": Upwork is strategically expanding its presence in the enterprise sector through its new subsidiary, Lifted (also referred to as Lyfted). This offering provides a comprehensive solution for large corporate clients to source, contract, manage, and pay contingent talent. Upwork expects Lifted to ramp up in the second half of 2026 and to be a significant contributor to GSV, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA in 2027 and beyond, addressing prior challenges in enterprise growth.
- Acceleration of Small and Medium Business (SMB) Growth, particularly with "Business Plus": The company is targeting accelerated growth within the SMB market, primarily driven by its premium offering, "Business Plus." This service is designed to attract higher-spending SMB clients who exhibit stronger retention rates. Upwork has seen considerable quarter-over-quarter growth in Business Plus GSV and a sequential increase in active clients for this segment.
- Increased Take Rates and Enhanced Monetization Strategies: Upwork continues to focus on optimizing its take rate through various monetization strategies. This includes driving higher-value engagements and the introduction of new advertising products and premium services such as Boosted Proposals and Featured Jobs, which have contributed to overall revenue growth. The company has observed an increase in its marketplace take rate, supported by these initiatives. Additionally, Upwork is testing variable freelancer fees to further enhance take rates across different categories.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Upwork returned $136 million to shareholders in 2025 through the repurchase of 9.3 million shares.
- As of December 31, 2025, $64 million remained authorized for future share repurchases.
- In February 2026, the board authorized a new $300 million share repurchase program, bringing total authorizations since November 2023 to $600 million.
Share Issuance
- Proceeds from exercises of stock options and common stock warrants were approximately $21 thousand in 2025, $1,358 thousand in 2024, $750 thousand in 2023, and $3,293 thousand in 2022.
Inbound Investments
- Ancient Art, L.P., an investment advisor, acquired over 370,000 shares of Upwork in the fourth quarter of 2025, valued at approximately $6.8 million.
Outbound Investments
- Upwork made strategic mergers and acquisitions over the last two and a half years to enhance its AI and enterprise capabilities.
- The company absorbed approximately $6 million in incremental operating expenses and integration costs in 2025 from two acquisitions supporting the Lifted strategy.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $25 million in 2025, $14 million in 2024, $13 million in 2023, $8.73 million in 2022, and $6.14 million in 2021.
- The company continues to invest in key growth areas including SMB, AI, and Enterprise initiatives.
Peer Outperformance in Human Resource & Employment Services
UPWK has trailed 90% of its 21 Human Resource & Employment Services peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are ADP and PAYX. Human Resource & Employment Services ranks 22nd of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Human Resource & Employment Services constituents that UPWK has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
10%
of 21 industry peers · -42.6% return
3Y
48%
of 21 industry peers · -8.3% return
5Y
10%
of 21 industry peers · -80.6% return
Human Resource & Employment Services peers with revenue growth within 4pp of UPWK's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPWK | Upwork | 6.8% | 11.1x | -42.6% | -8.3% | -80.6% | — |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing | 6.7% | 25.7x | 16.2% | 50.1% | 46.3% | +127pp |
| PAYX | Paychex | 9.2% | 22.1x | 0.0% | 14.1% | 5.6% | +86pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Human Resource & Employment Services is UPWK's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 55.0% | 55.3% | 159.8% | MATX 186% · KEX 175% |
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -7.3% | 104.5% | 152.2% | STRL 1339% · FIX 1275% · AGX 809% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 12.1% | 64.6% | 104.9% | ALSN 249% · CAT 231% · WAB 217% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 52 | -12.4% | 64.5% | 67.6% | ATI 929% · FTAI 906% · HWM 581% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 20.7% | 36.0% | 61.7% | DXPE 429% · URI 221% · AIT 215% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 18.8% | 42.8% | 35.8% | CXW 259% · OPLN 166% · CACI 135% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 4.2% | 51.0% | 35.8% | CRS 865% · MLI 344% · SYM 280% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 30.8% | 59.2% | 29.9% | CSX 54% · UNP 41% · NSC 30% |
| Building Products | 32 | -8.3% | 11.6% | 22.5% | GFF 363% · TT 141% · JCI 124% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 37 | -8.0% | 75.7% | 17.1% | POWL 1863% · VRT 810% · BE 550% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 32.0% | 6.7% | 11.9% | R 275% · XPO 263% · ARCB 43% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 15.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | CSW 111% · DD 85% · CSL 78% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 24.8% | 20.6% | -9.3% | PBI 186% · TILE 161% · HNI 55% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -19.2% | -0.1% | -15.9% | EXLS 69% · BR 10% · G -13% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -52.4% | 22.1% | -17.6% | BCO 58% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 9.2% | -6.1% | -19.6% | DE 111% · TTC 23% · AGCO 5% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -28.8% | 34.2% | -25.0% | GEO 249% · CLH 168% · RSG 93% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.5% | -12.9% | -25.4% | HURN 288% · FCN 27% · BAH 12% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | -3.5% | 55.0% | -32.4% | LTM 2856% · UAL 126% · DAL 113% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -21.0% | 48.9% | -34.4% | UBER 49% · CAR -34% · LYFT -65% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -18.8% | -8.1% | -39.3% | FDX 84% · EXPD 71% · CHRW 45% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services ← | 22 | 19.9% | -5.2% | -42.8% | ADP 46% · FA 28% · PAYX 6% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -53.3% | -60.0% | -85.9% | JOBY -44% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,293 |
| Op Inc LTM | 119 |
| FCF LTM | 176 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 153 |
| CFO LTM | 209 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 176 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -6.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.6 |
| P/E | 18.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 40.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/03/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -58.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.64 | $10.61 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 5.9% | -13.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.2% | 59.9% |
| Downside Capture | 188.42 | 192.56 |
| Upside Capture | 144.24 | 90.28 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 18.5% | 19.9% |
UPWK Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.35 | 0.31 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | -6.23 | -0.62 | 0.61 | -1.13 | 0.34 | 1.01 |
| Down Beta | 0.01 | -0.62 | -1.06 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.85 |
| Up Capture | 83% | 81% | 157% | 24% | 80% | 145% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 35 | 65 | 124 | 364 |
| Down Capture | -103% | 64% | 154% | 74% | 141% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 18 | 27 | 59 | 124 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -45.9% | 59.9% | -0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 8.9% | 17.3% | 0.32 | 2.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 18.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 12.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 9.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -31.1% | 62.5% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.4% | 17.6% | 0.48 | 30.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 2.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 32.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 20.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPWK | -8.0% | 64.1% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.1% | 0.58 | 24.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 34.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 18.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/10/2026 | -15.0% | -16.7% | -16.2% |
| 5/7/2026 | -16.9% | -23.8% | -16.4% |
| 2/9/2026 | -19.1% | -32.1% | -34.0% |
| 11/3/2025 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 25.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.6% | 17.9% | 35.5% |
| 5/5/2025 | 18.0% | 30.6% | 14.5% |
| 2/12/2025 | 6.6% | 7.9% | -18.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 11.5% | 7.8% | 16.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 11.8% | 16.4% | 16.3% |
| Median Negative | -10.6% | -12.5% | -18.9% |
| Max Positive | 44.2% | 53.3% | 58.1% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -32.1% | -36.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/10/2026 | -15.0% | -16.7% | -16.2% |
| 5/7/2026 | -16.9% | -23.8% | -16.4% |
| 2/9/2026 | -19.1% | -32.1% | -34.0% |
| 11/3/2025 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 25.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.6% | 17.9% | 35.5% |
| 5/5/2025 | 18.0% | 30.6% | 14.5% |
| 2/12/2025 | 6.6% | 7.9% | -18.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 11.5% | 7.8% | 16.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -10.4% | -9.7% | -9.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | 8.6% | -0.3% | -11.6% |
| 2/14/2024 | -9.0% | -14.0% | -21.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | 10.5% | 19.9% | 14.3% |
| 8/2/2023 | 44.2% | 41.7% | 48.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | -1.8% | -1.1% | 7.9% |
| 2/15/2023 | -15.3% | -17.1% | -28.0% |
| 10/26/2022 | 2.8% | 8.1% | -6.7% |
| 7/27/2022 | -18.0% | -14.5% | -20.6% |
| 4/27/2022 | 12.1% | 14.9% | -8.3% |
| 2/10/2022 | -9.3% | -10.7% | -36.2% |
| 10/27/2021 | -10.8% | -10.9% | -31.5% |
| 7/29/2021 | -10.0% | -19.4% | -23.1% |
| 5/4/2021 | -4.6% | -4.9% | 6.0% |
| 2/23/2021 | 3.5% | -1.6% | -17.5% |
| 11/4/2020 | 43.6% | 53.3% | 58.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 11.8% | 16.4% | 16.3% |
| Median Negative | -10.6% | -12.5% | -18.9% |
| Max Positive | 44.2% | 53.3% | 58.1% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -32.1% | -36.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/26/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 176.00 Mil | 180.00 Mil | 184.00 Mil | -5.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 190.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 52.00 Mil | 54.00 Mil | -9.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 57.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.33 | -11.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.36 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted weighted-average shares outstanding | Reported | 130.00 Mil | 131.50 Mil | 133.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 730.00 Mil | 740.00 Mil | 750.00 Mil | -4.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 775.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 225.00 Mil | 230.00 Mil | 235.00 Mil | -9.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 255.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.43 | -7.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.53 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted weighted-average shares outstanding | Reported | 132.00 Mil | 133.50 Mil | 135.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 187.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 193.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 56.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 59.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.37 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 760.00 Mil | 775.00 Mil | 790.00 Mil | -8.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 842.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 255.00 Mil | 260.00 Mil | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 245.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 1.5 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.46 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 GSV Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 835.00 Mil | 842.50 Mil | 850.00 Mil | 7.4% | Higher New | Actual: 784.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 240.00 Mil | 245.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 9.6% | Higher New | Actual: 223.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 1.43 | 1.46 | 1.48 | 7.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.36 for 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 192.00 Mil | 194.50 Mil | 197.00 Mil | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 195.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 45.00 Mil | 46.00 Mil | 47.00 Mil | -8.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 50.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.28 | -15.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.32 for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | Reported | 193.00 Mil | 195.50 Mil | 198.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 49.00 Mil | 50.50 Mil | 52.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.33 | ||||
| 2025 Stock-based compensation expense | Reported | 65.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 782.00 Mil | 784.50 Mil | 787.00 Mil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 770.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 222.00 Mil | 223.50 Mil | 225.00 Mil | 6.4% | Raised | Guidance: 210.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 17.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.16 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202026 | 8.43 | 559 | 4,712 | 650,708 | Form |
| 2 | Mekhalfa, Sabrina | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 1,299 | 10,978 | 56,409 | Form |
| 3 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 45,732 | 386,472 | 645,151 | Form |
| 4 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 9,336 | 78,897 | 3,157,101 | Form |
| 5 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 23,893 | 201,917 | 6,706,575 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202026 | 8.43 | 559 | 4,712 | 650,708 | Form |
| 2 | Mekhalfa, Sabrina | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 1,299 | 10,978 | 56,409 | Form |
| 3 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 45,732 | 386,472 | 645,151 | Form |
| 4 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 9,336 | 78,897 | 3,157,101 | Form |
| 5 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9222026 | 8.45 | 23,893 | 201,917 | 6,706,575 | Form |
| 6 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 8.43 | 22,844 | 192,477 | 3,073,603 | Form |
| 7 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 8.43 | 1,964 | 16,548 | 60,783 | Form |
| 8 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 8.43 | 73,241 | 617,177 | 6,497,592 | Form |
| 9 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 9.06 | 558 | 5,053 | 36,792 | Form |
| 10 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 8.15 | 9,169 | 74,734 | 2,784,352 | Form |
| 11 | Mekhalfa, Sabrina | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 8.15 | 1,276 | 10,401 | 35,831 | Form |
| 12 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 8.15 | 23,468 | 191,281 | 6,500,142 | Form |
| 13 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 8.66 | 22,162 | 191,998 | 2,881,845 | Form |
| 14 | Kappus, Anthony Ray | GM & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 8.66 | 1,905 | 16,504 | 27,801 | Form |
| 15 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 8.60 | 72,546 | 623,800 | 6,660,127 | Form |
| 16 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 11.49 | 7,000 | 80,448 | 30,777 | Form |
| 17 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 12.31 | 9,278 | 114,231 | 3,782,739 | Form |
| 18 | Mekhalfa, Sabrina | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 12.31 | 1,482 | 18,247 | 25,794 | Form |
| 19 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 12.31 | 23,745 | 292,344 | 9,833,829 | Form |
| 20 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 12.31 | 11,575 | 142,509 | 119,154 | Form |
| 21 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 13.51 | 15,649 | 211,441 | 4,661 | Form |
| 22 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 13.80 | 26,292 | 362,887 | 4,118,383 | Form |
| 23 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 13.80 | 17,013 | 234,813 | 220,749 | Form |
| 24 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 13.80 | 123,152 | 1,698,959 | 10,706,328 | Form |
| 25 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 20.66 | 9,622 | 198,808 | 7,128 | Form |
| 26 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 20.59 | 9,044 | 186,187 | 5,078,784 | Form |
| 27 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 20.59 | 23,147 | 476,550 | 14,847,201 | Form |
| 28 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 20.59 | 11,285 | 232,336 | 205,201 | Form |
| 29 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 19.43 | 275,000 | 5,344,142 | 13,562,345 | Form |
| 30 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 19.78 | 75,000 | 1,483,335 | 19,241,703 | Form |
| 31 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 18.20 | 60,000 | 1,092,114 | 19,073,662 | Form |
| 32 | Steele, Gary | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 17.51 | 12,500 | 218,849 | 1,490,430 | Form | |
| 33 | Brown, Hayden | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 16.70 | 24,846 | 415,008 | 18,505,381 | Form |
| 34 | Gessert, Erica | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 16.70 | 18,493 | 308,840 | 3,968,209 | Form |
| 35 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 18.13 | 1,748 | 31,690 | 6,255 | Form |
| 36 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 16.72 | 2,002 | 33,466 | 34,987 | Form |
| 37 | Bottoms, Dave | GM, Marketplace | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 16.45 | 561 | 9,228 | 5,675 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
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