United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $114.0 | Market Cap: $97.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $114.0Market Cap: $97.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 6.5% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 9.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.4 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% Key risksUPS key risks include [1] potential operational disruptions from ongoing labor disputes with the Teamsters union and [2] a significant revenue impact from its strategic decision to drastically reduce volume from its former largest customer, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9%, FCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 9.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.4 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% |
| Key risksUPS key risks include [1] potential operational disruptions from ongoing labor disputes with the Teamsters union and [2] a significant revenue impact from its strategic decision to drastically reduce volume from its former largest customer, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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United Parcel Service (UPS) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
United Parcel Service (UPS) reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.69 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 30, 2026), exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.63 by 3.68%. Consolidated revenue for the quarter reached $22.9 billion, a 6.7% year-over-year increase, surpassing the $22.27 billion estimate. Following these results, UPS raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $7.28 from a previous forecast of $7.22, and its full-year revenue guidance to approximately $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion. This positive earnings report led to a 5.75% increase in UPS's stock price on October 27, 2026.
2. Successful Restructuring and Strategic Shift Towards Higher-Value Shipments.
By August 11, 2026, UPS had successfully completed its restructuring efforts, which involved streamlining its network and strategically reducing its low-margin Amazon volume. This initiative allowed UPS to focus on more profitable shipments and customers, particularly small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) and enterprise clients. This shift contributed to a 6.1% year-over-year increase in U.S. revenue per piece in fiscal Q3 2026. Additionally, average daily volume from SMBs increased by 3.7%, constituting a record 35.1% of total U.S. volume.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
United Parcel Service (UPS) reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.69 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 30, 2026), exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.63 by 3.68%. Consolidated revenue for the quarter reached $22.9 billion, a 6.7% year-over-year increase, surpassing the $22.27 billion estimate. Following these results, UPS raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $7.28 from a previous forecast of $7.22, and its full-year revenue guidance to approximately $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion. This positive earnings report led to a 5.75% increase in UPS's stock price on October 27, 2026.
2. Successful Restructuring and Strategic Shift Towards Higher-Value Shipments.
By August 11, 2026, UPS had successfully completed its restructuring efforts, which involved streamlining its network and strategically reducing its low-margin Amazon volume. This initiative allowed UPS to focus on more profitable shipments and customers, particularly small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) and enterprise clients. This shift contributed to a 6.1% year-over-year increase in U.S. revenue per piece in fiscal Q3 2026. Additionally, average daily volume from SMBs increased by 3.7%, constituting a record 35.1% of total U.S. volume.
3. Improved Operational Efficiency and Favorable Industry Dynamics.
UPS's emphasis on network efficiency, including greater automation, contributed to a 14.3% year-over-year increase in U.S. Domestic operating profit during fiscal Q3 2026, exceeding $1 billion. Concurrently, the broader transportation and logistics industry experienced tightening market conditions in fiscal Q3 2026, characterized by rising truckload spot rates and tender rejections, primarily due to regulatory actions reducing trucking capacity. This environment, combined with UPS's strategic positioning and an 18.2% growth in its Supply Chain Solutions segment, supported by healthcare initiatives, further bolstered the company's performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.4% change in UPS stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.58 | 114.31 | 11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88,317 | 91,368 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 4.8% | -18.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.6 | 22.0 | 32.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 850 | 851 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | 11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 21.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | -5.8% | 20.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.5% change in UPS stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 105.32 | 114.31 | 8.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88,661 | 91,368 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 4.8% | -23.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 22.0 | 37.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 849 | 851 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | 8.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 28.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.7% | 33.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.3% change in UPS stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.48 | 114.31 | 26.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,313 | 91,368 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 4.8% | -23.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 22.0 | 64.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 847 | 851 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | 26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 30.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.2% | 41.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.9% change in UPS stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.98 | 114.31 | -3.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 96,174 | 91,368 | -5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 4.8% | -53.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.2 | 22.0 | 115.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 860 | 851 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPS | -3.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.2% | 44.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPS Return | 30% | -15% | -6% | -16% | -16% | 21% | -12% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -20% | 26% | -0% | 21% | 19% | 100% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPS Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 42% | 58% | 52% | 67% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPS Max Drawdown | -17% | -30% | -30% | -22% | -36% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -34% | -19% | -22% | -28% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FDX, ODFL, CHRW, EXPD, JBHT. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 125 days |
In The Past
United Parcel Service's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | UPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 79 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 402 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
United Parcel Service's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About United Parcel Service (UPS)
United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery. The company primarily operates through two core segments: U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic segment provides time-definite delivery services for letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight across the United States, utilizing an extensive network of air and ground transportation.
The International Package segment extends UPS's reach worldwide, offering guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services to regions including Europe, Asia Pacific, Canada, Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa, spanning approximately 200 countries and territories. This global network is crucial for businesses and individuals requiring reliable cross-border shipping.
Beyond traditional package delivery, UPS offers a comprehensive suite of supply chain and specialized services. These include international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution, post-sales support, and consulting services. The company also provides truckload brokerage, advanced supply chain solutions tailored for the healthcare and life sciences sectors, and various shipping, visibility, and billing technologies, catering to a diverse range of individual and business customers globally.
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Here are a few analogies for United Parcel Service (UPS):
- Like FedEx.
- The private, global equivalent of the U.S. Postal Service.
- Imagine the Amazon delivery system, but for any company or individual worldwide.
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- Package Delivery Services: Provides time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services, both domestically and internationally.
- Freight Forwarding: Offers international air and ocean freight forwarding services.
- Customs Brokerage: Assists clients with customs clearance and compliance for international shipments.
- Logistics and Distribution Solutions: Includes distribution, post-sales support, and specialized supply chain solutions for industries such as healthcare.
- Truckload Brokerage: Arranges full truckload transportation services for businesses.
- Technology Solutions: Develops and provides shipping, visibility, and billing technologies to enhance logistics management.
- Financial and Insurance Services: Offers financial and insurance products related to its transportation and logistics operations.
- Consulting Services: Provides expert advice on logistics and supply chain optimization.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) primarily sells its services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B) rather than individuals. Due to the vast and diverse nature of its customer base, spanning virtually all industries globally, UPS does not publicly disclose the names of its individual major customer companies. Its services are integral to the supply chains of countless businesses worldwide.
However, the major categories of companies that rely heavily on UPS for their operations include:
- E-commerce Businesses and Retailers: Companies of all sizes, from large online marketplaces to small direct-to-consumer brands, use UPS for shipping products to their customers (both domestically and internationally).
- Manufacturers and Distributors: Businesses across various sectors (e.g., automotive, electronics, consumer goods, industrial products) utilize UPS for transporting raw materials, components, finished goods, and managing complex supply chains.
- Healthcare and Life Sciences Companies: As explicitly mentioned in the company description, this sector relies on UPS for specialized logistics, including temperature-controlled shipping, urgent deliveries, and compliance with strict regulations for pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other sensitive materials.
- Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs): A broad array of SMBs across virtually every industry use UPS for their shipping needs, from documents and small packages to freight services.
While individuals do use UPS for personal shipping (Consumer-to-Consumer or C2C) and returning items to businesses, the core of UPS's revenue and operational focus lies in serving the complex logistics and shipping requirements of other businesses.
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Carol Tomé, Chief Executive Officer
Carol Tomé has served as the Chief Executive Officer of UPS since June 2020, making her the first female CEO and the first external hire for the role in the company's history, although she had been a member of the Board since 2003. Before joining UPS, Ms. Tomé spent nearly two decades as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Home Depot, from 1995 to 2019. During her tenure at The Home Depot, she was instrumental in guiding the company through the financial recession and housing crisis, doubling sales to over $108 billion, and achieving a 450% increase in shareholder value. Her early career included roles as a commercial lender at United Bank of Denver (now Wells Fargo) and leadership positions at Johns-Manville Corporation and Riverwood International Corporation.
Brian Dykes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian Dykes was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of UPS in July 2024. He is a veteran of UPS with 25 years of service, having held various senior roles within the company's finance and accounting, corporate treasury, mergers and acquisitions, business intelligence, and business development functions, both in the United States and internationally. Prior to his current role, he served as Senior Vice President, Global Finance and Planning since April 2023.
Nando Cesarone, Executive Vice President and President U.S.
Nando Cesarone serves as the Executive Vice President and President U.S. for UPS, where he is responsible for overseeing the company's U.S. small package, transportation, and airline operations. He began his career at UPS in 1990 as a preloader, benefiting from the company's tuition reimbursement program, and later became a package car driver. His extensive international experience with UPS includes serving as President of UPS International, President of UPS Europe, and President of the Asia Pacific Region, where he led expansion efforts in emerging markets and China.
Kate Gutmann, Executive Vice President & President International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions
Kate Gutmann holds the position of Executive Vice President & President International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions at UPS. She is responsible for global sales, solutions, and customer engagement strategies, and also oversees the UPS Capital and The UPS Store business units worldwide. Ms. Gutmann started her career with UPS in 1989 as a marketing intern while studying at Siena College. She has progressed through numerous sales and marketing roles with increasing responsibility, including President of Worldwide Sales and Vice President of Marketing for the UPS Europe, Middle East, and Africa Region.
Bala Subramanian, Executive Vice President & Chief Digital and Technology Officer
Bala Subramanian is the Executive Vice President & Chief Digital and Technology Officer at UPS. He joined the company in 2020, bringing significant expertise in digital transformation, technology innovation, and strategic leadership. His career prior to UPS included various leadership roles with several major corporations.
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The key risks to United Parcel Service (UPS) include intense competition and shifts in the e-commerce landscape, labor costs and union relations, and fuel price volatility and rising operating expenses.
Competitive Landscape and E-commerce Shifts
UPS operates in a highly competitive industry with established rivals such as FedEx, DHL Express, and national postal services. A significant and evolving threat comes from Amazon Logistics, which has been rapidly expanding its sorting and distribution capabilities and handling a growing portion of its own package deliveries, with the potential to offer third-party services in the future. This intense competition necessitates continuous investment in network efficiency, technological innovation, and service diversification to maintain market share. In response to these shifts, UPS has been strategically reducing its reliance on Amazon's package volume and pivoting towards higher-margin segments like small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and healthcare logistics.
Labor Costs and Union Relations
UPS has a large, unionized workforce, primarily represented by the Teamsters. Labor costs are a significant challenge, with recent collective bargaining agreements leading to substantial increases in expenses. The company has faced and continues to navigate potential labor disputes, including strike threats, which can lead to operational disruptions and increased costs. Efforts by UPS to reduce its workforce through voluntary buyout plans, aimed at improving profitability and aligning staffing with reduced package volumes (particularly from Amazon), have also created tension and disputes with the union, which views these actions as potential violations of existing contracts.
Fuel Price Volatility and Operating Expenses
As a transportation and logistics company operating a large fleet of vehicles and aircraft, UPS is highly sensitive to fluctuations in fuel prices. While UPS implements fuel surcharges to offset these costs, significant or sustained increases in diesel and jet fuel prices directly impact operating expenses. These increased costs can put pressure on profitability and may necessitate passing on higher shipping costs to customers, potentially affecting demand for UPS's services. Beyond fuel, rising operating expenses generally, including compensation and benefits, also contribute to financial pressures.
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The clear emerging threat for United Parcel Service (UPS) is the continued and extensive expansion of major e-commerce retailers, particularly Amazon, into developing and operating their own in-house logistics and delivery networks. Amazon, a significant former customer of UPS, has heavily invested in its own fleet of aircraft, trucks, vans, and last-mile delivery services, effectively internalizing a substantial volume of packages that were previously handled by traditional carriers like UPS. This trend represents a direct competitive challenge, as a major source of parcel volume is diverted to an internal network, significantly altering the competitive landscape and putting pressure on UPS's package delivery segments by removing a large customer and establishing a formidable new competitor.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Global Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market: This market, which includes both domestic and international package delivery, was valued at approximately USD 956.19 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow significantly, reaching an estimated USD 2,976.01 billion by 2033.
- U.S. Domestic Parcel Market: For its U.S. domestic package delivery services, the market generated USD 196 billion in revenue in 2025.
- Global Freight Forwarding Market: The global freight forwarding market, encompassing international air and ocean freight forwarding, was valued at USD 230.68 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 365.15 billion by 2035.
- Global Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Market: This broad market, covering services such as international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and truckload brokerage, was valued at USD 1.6 trillion in 2025. The 3PL market is expected to expand to USD 4.3 trillion by 2035.
- Global Healthcare Third-Party Logistics Market: For its specialized supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry, the global healthcare third-party logistics market was estimated at USD 261.39 billion in 2024. This specific segment is projected to grow to USD 406.36 billion by 2030.
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United Parcel Service (UPS) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years by focusing on several key drivers:
- Expansion in Higher-Margin Markets: UPS is prioritizing growth in premium segments such as healthcare logistics and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs/SMEs). This involves reducing lower-margin volume, for instance, by significantly decreasing its shipments for a major customer like Amazon, to concentrate on more profitable package types. The company aims to become the world's leading provider of complex healthcare logistics and has demonstrated strong growth in this area, targeting $20 billion in healthcare revenue by 2026.
- Network Optimization and Automation: Under its "Network of the Future" initiative, UPS is investing heavily in optimizing and automating its core integrated network. This strategy is designed to lower the cost to serve, enhance efficiency, and support anticipated volume growth. Plans include more than tripling the number of automated buildings in its network by the end of 2028, largely through implementing automation projects in existing facilities, and reconfiguring its U.S. network to yield substantial savings.
- Improved Revenue Quality and Strategic Pricing: UPS is focused on driving higher revenue per piece by implementing average rate increases across its ground, air, and international services. This emphasis on "revenue quality" is a core part of its strategy, which includes adjusting customer volume to focus on more profitable package types and insourcing services like SurePost to improve efficiency and control over final-mile delivery.
- International Market Expansion: The company continues to target growth in high-growth international markets. This involves efficiently connecting domestic and export customers to its global network, leveraging its established presence in over 200 countries and territories.
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Share Repurchases
- In January 2023, UPS approved a new share repurchase authorization for $5.0 billion of Class A and Class B common stock, replacing a previous 2021 authorization.
- UPS repurchased $2.2 billion in shares in 2023, $500 million in 2024, and $1 billion in 2025.
- As of December 31, 2024, $2.3 billion remained available under the 2023 share repurchase authorization.
Outbound Investments
- UPS acquired Frigo-Trans in January 2025 and Andlauer Healthcare Group (AHG) in November 2025, with recent strategic mergers and acquisitions focusing on healthcare logistics.
- The company sold Coyote in the third quarter of 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $4.194 billion in 2021, $4.769 billion in 2022, $5.158 billion in 2023, $3.909 billion in 2024, and $3.685 billion in 2025.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $3.0 billion, marking a 10-year low.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes network reconfiguration, automation investments, and capacity rightsizing, emphasizing a leaner, more productive network.
Peer Outperformance in Air Freight & Logistics
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | United Parcel Service | -0.6% | 22.0x | 30.6% | -5.0% | -30.7% | — |
| FDX | FedEx | 2.5% | 19.9x | 66.1% | 76.7% | 85.5% | +116pp |
| CHRW | C.H. Robinson Worldwide | -0.1% | 23.5x | -11.1% | 75.3% | 56.9% | +88pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -12.8% | 78.4% | 144.7% | FIX 1084% · STRL 944% · AGX 620% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 28.7% | 38.5% | 123.2% | MATX 149% · KEX 123% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 12.2% | 58.9% | 107.9% | ALSN 278% · WAB 230% · CAT 216% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -7.4% | 61.7% | 59.6% | ATI 980% · FTAI 885% · HWM 598% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 6.3% | 50.5% | 38.7% | CRS 887% · MLI 333% · SYM 274% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 17.2% | 41.9% | 38.4% | DXPE 356% · AIT 215% · URI 202% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 37.9% | 59.1% | 33.8% | CSX 57% · UNP 46% · NSC 34% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 21.0% | 37.1% | 28.3% | CXW 235% · OPLN 162% · CACI 120% |
| Building Products | 34 | -3.2% | 12.5% | 21.7% | MOD 793% · GFF 380% · TT 142% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.7% | 17.8% | 7.7% | XPO 276% · R 265% · ARCB 26% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 29.7% | 26.2% | 3.1% | TILE 170% · PBI 166% · HNI 48% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 23.0% | -3.6% | 1.0% | CSW 125% · CSL 83% · DD 74% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -5.2% | 68.2% | -2.8% | POWL 1633% · VRT 667% · BE 564% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -14.9% | 3.1% | -12.6% | EXLS 60% · BR 21% · MMS -12% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -49.8% | 13.7% | -19.8% | BCO 70% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -16.9% | -20.8% | HURN 224% · FCN 35% · BAH 11% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 17.3% | -6.1% | -21.8% | BLBD 184% · DE 106% · TTC 19% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -29.1% | 25.0% | -25.8% | GEO 210% · CLH 173% · RSG 96% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 10.5% | 55.1% | -28.2% | LTM 3048% · UAL 136% · DAL 126% |
| Air Freight & Logistics ← | 12 | -23.0% | -5.0% | -37.3% | FDX 86% · EXPD 60% · CHRW 57% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 21.6% | -6.2% | -42.7% | ADP 50% · FA 22% · PAYX 13% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -13.2% | 46.3% | -53.7% | UBER 54% · CAR -54% · LYFT -62% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -48.6% | -62.5% | -86.1% | JOBY -48% |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 188.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.4 |
| Rev LTM | 15,771 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,440 |
| FCF LTM | 966 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 814 |
| CFO LTM | 1,426 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,495 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.4 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.4 |
| P/E | 24.0 |
| P/CFO | 26.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 22.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Domestic Package | 59,519 | 60,376 | 60,205 | 60,317 | |
| International Package | 18,576 | 17,960 | 17,831 | 19,541 | |
| Other revenues | 10,566 | 12,734 | 12,922 | ||
| Single Segment | 100,338 | ||||
| Supply Chain Solutions | 17,429 | ||||
| Total | 88,661 | 91,070 | 90,958 | 100,338 | 97,287 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Domestic Package | 3,926 | 4,345 | 5,156 | 6,997 | 6,436 |
| International Package | 2,873 | 3,191 | 3,231 | 4,326 | 4,646 |
| Other profit/(loss) | 1,068 | 932 | 754 | ||
| Supply Chain Solutions | 1,771 | 1,728 | |||
| Total | 7,867 | 8,468 | 9,141 | 13,094 | 12,810 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Domestic Package | 38,359 | 38,657 | 38,368 | 38,303 | 35,746 |
| International Package | 18,214 | 18,300 | 17,587 | 17,670 | 17,225 |
| Other assets | 12,693 | 9,850 | |||
| Unallocated assets | 3,824 | 3,263 | 3,657 | 4,744 | 6,878 |
| Supply Chain Solutions | 11,245 | 10,407 | 9,556 | ||
| Total | 73,090 | 70,070 | 70,857 | 71,124 | 69,405 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $114.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 97.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/10/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $99.67 | $102.61 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 14.7% | 11.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.7% | 29.5% |
| Downside Capture | 30.10 | 63.29 |
| Upside Capture | 81.25 | 81.16 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 2.8% | 28.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.11 | -0.06 | 0.37 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| Up Beta | -1.69 | -2.66 | -0.38 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | -0.52 | -1.06 | -1.20 | 0.24 | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| Up Capture | 150% | 77% | 107% | 87% | 72% | 36% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 32 | 66 | 135 | 388 |
| Down Capture | -93% | 41% | 83% | 93% | 73% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 32 | 60 | 116 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 29.6% | 29.5% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.8% | 17.4% | 0.42 | 41.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 30.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 19.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -20.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | -1.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | -7.2% | 28.9% | -0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.1% | 17.6% | 0.51 | 54.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 44.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 13.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 4.7% | 28.1% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.1% | 0.58 | 56.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 54.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 43.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 7.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2026 | 5.8% | 9.4% | |
| 7/28/2026 | -6.6% | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| 4/28/2026 | -4.0% | -11.0% | -1.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | 0.2% | 3.1% | 7.9% |
| 10/28/2025 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -10.6% | -16.3% | -12.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 1.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -14.1% | -16.4% | -9.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -7.8% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 20.7% | 20.9% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -16.4% | -12.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2026 | 5.8% | 9.4% | |
| 7/28/2026 | -6.6% | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| 4/28/2026 | -4.0% | -11.0% | -1.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | 0.2% | 3.1% | 7.9% |
| 10/28/2025 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -10.6% | -16.3% | -12.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 1.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -14.1% | -16.4% | -9.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | 5.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | -12.1% | -11.4% | -10.1% |
| 4/23/2024 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| 1/30/2024 | -8.2% | -12.0% | -5.4% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.9% | -4.9% | 4.7% |
| 8/8/2023 | -0.9% | -2.8% | -10.1% |
| 4/25/2023 | -10.0% | -7.0% | -12.5% |
| 1/31/2023 | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% |
| 10/25/2022 | -0.3% | 0.1% | 11.1% |
| 7/26/2022 | -3.4% | 4.0% | 10.1% |
| 4/26/2022 | -3.5% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 2/1/2022 | 14.1% | 11.3% | 5.3% |
| 10/26/2021 | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% |
| 7/27/2021 | -7.0% | -8.5% | -7.4% |
| 4/27/2021 | 10.4% | 20.7% | 20.9% |
| 2/2/2021 | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -7.8% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 20.7% | 20.9% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -16.4% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/28/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 3.30 Bil | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 25.70 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 8.75 Bil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 8.65 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividend Payments | Reported | 5.40 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.40 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Pension Contributions | Reported | 1.30 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Transformation Strategy Program Benefits | Reported | 3.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Driver Choice Program Excluded Costs | Reported | 1.20 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Consolidated Revenue | Reported | 92.60 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 91.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Expense Excluded Costs | Reported | 1.40 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 1.60 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.0% for 2026 | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 7.28 | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 7.22 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 6.10 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Profit | Reported | 8.65 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 5.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.40 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 91.20 Bil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 89.70 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 7.22 | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 5.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.40 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Program Cost Savings | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 89.70 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 89.70 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Expense Exclusions | Reported | 1.30 Bil | 1.40 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 9.6% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.6% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 5.40 Bil | -1.8% | Lower New | Actual: 5.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Cost Savings | Reported | 3.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 89.70 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 9.6% | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 3.00 Bil | -14.3% | Lower New | Actual: 3.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Private Wealth, LLC | $66.0 Mil | 15.0% | 185 | New | 13F |
| Drexel Morgan & Co. | $79.9 Mil | 11.7% | 60 | ADD +14.0% | 13F |
| Masters Capital Management LLC | $49.2 Mil | 7.3% | 44 | ADD +66.7% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $26.1 Mil | 4.4% | 42 | ADD +52.2% | 13F |
| Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A. | $8.3 Mil | 3.1% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $71.6 Mil | 2.4% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Hi-Line Capital Management, LLC | $6.6 Mil | 2.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.6 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.9% | 13F |
| Lodge Hill Capital, LLC | $10.3 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $71.6 Mil | 2.4% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Cove Private Wealth, LLC | $66.0 Mil | 15.0% | 185 | New | 13F |
| Lodge Hill Capital, LLC | $10.3 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Masters Capital Management LLC | $49.2 Mil | 7.3% | 44 | ADD +66.7% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $26.1 Mil | 4.4% | 42 | ADD +52.2% | 13F |
| Drexel Morgan & Co. | $79.9 Mil | 11.7% | 60 | ADD +14.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drexel Morgan & Co. | $79.9 Mil | 11.7% | 60 | ADD +14.0% | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $71.6 Mil | 2.4% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Cove Private Wealth, LLC | $66.0 Mil | 15.0% | 185 | New | 13F |
| Masters Capital Management LLC | $49.2 Mil | 7.3% | 44 | ADD +66.7% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $26.1 Mil | 4.4% | 42 | ADD +52.2% | 13F |
| Lodge Hill Capital, LLC | $10.3 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A. | $8.3 Mil | 3.1% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Hi-Line Capital Management, LLC | $6.6 Mil | 2.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.6 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.9% | 13F |
UPS Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
UPS is successfully executing a strategic pivot to higher-quality revenue. For the second straight quarter, U.S. pricing growth outpaced cost growth, expanding margins. With management raising full-year guidance for revenue and profit, the "Better, not Bigger" strategy is inflecting positively. The primary risk is faltering execution in this complex transition.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Logistics NetworkRevenue = Average Daily Volume x Revenue Per Piece x Operating Days The spread between Revenue Per Piece (RPP) growth and Cost Per Piece (CPP) growth, which drives operating margin expansion.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The company is past the inflection point of its strategic volume reduction, with core domestic margins expanding and full-year profit guidance raised.
- U.S. Domestic operating margin expanded 60 basis points YoY in Q3 2026.
- Full-year 2026 operating profit guidance was raised to ~$8.75 billion.
- SMBs now represent 35.1% of U.S. volume, up 240 basis points YoY.
- U.S. revenue per piece grew 6.1% in Q3, outpacing cost growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The pivot to premium segments carries risk, evidenced by a $182 million goodwill impairment in healthcare logistics.
- A $182 million goodwill impairment was recorded in Q3 2026.
- U.S. Domestic average daily volume declined 3.3% in Q3 2026.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 7.1%, down from 9.2% a year ago.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Domestic Average Daily Volume (ADV) | In Q3 2026, package volume declined 3.3% year-over-year. - Turning around | The negative volume trend is a deliberate part of the company's strategy to reduce lower-margin volume from its largest customer, Amazon. Management noted that excluding this intentional reduction, volume from core Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) and enterprise customers grew 1.8% year-over-year in Q3 2026. |
| U.S. Domestic Revenue Per Piece (RPP) | $14.29 in Q3 2026, an increase of 6.1% year-over-year - Decelerating | Management stated that about half of the Q3 growth came from base rates and customer mix, with the rest from higher fuel surcharges. |
| Average Daily Package Volume (U.S. Domestic) | 15,621 (in thousands) (Q3 2026) | Measures the volume of packages flowing through the domestic network, indicating demand and network utilization. Recent declines reflect the deliberate reduction of lower-margin volume. |
| SMB Penetration (U.S. Volume) | 35.1% (Q3 2026) | Measures the percentage of total U.S. volume from small- and medium-sized businesses, a key indicator of the company's strategic shift toward higher-yielding customer segments. |
Profitable Shrink vs. Competitive Share Loss
BULL VIEW
The intentional 3.3% U.S. volume decline is a "good shrink" that enabled a 6.1% rise in revenue per piece and margin expansion. This proves the strategy to prioritize profitability over raw volume is working as planned.
CORE TENSION
Can rising SMB penetration (now 35.1% of U.S. volume) and pricing power offset the deliberate reduction of high-volume, low-margin business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for both revenue and profit, signaling confidence that the positive mix shift is creating durable value.
BEAR VIEW
Ceding volume to competitors like FedEx, whose U.S. volume grew, is risky. The recent $182 million impairment shows the pivot to "premium" segments is not without significant execution challenges that could limit future growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 1, 2026 | Airline Mechanics Contract Amendable Watch: The collective bargaining agreement with approximately 2,000 airline mechanics represented by Teamsters Local 2727 becomes amendable. |
12/16/2026 | Peer Competitive Pressure Watch: FedEx commentary on share gains in B2B, healthcare, and SMBs, and margin performance in its Express segment. |
by the end of the year | Network Automation Target Watch: Company expects to increase the percentage of U.S. volume processed through automated facilities to 68%. |
1/13/2027 | JB Hunt Earnings Report Watch: Peer JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/25/2027 | Holiday Peak Season Execution Watch: Q4 U.S. Domestic operating margin versus guidance, and commentary on volume and revenue quality during the peak season. |
1/25/2027 | International Recovery Stalls Watch: Q4 International segment revenue and operating margin versus guidance. Commentary on Asia and Europe trade lane volumes. |
1/26/2027 | C.H. Robinson Earnings Report Watch: Peer C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) is scheduled to report earnings. |
WITHIN_SIX_MONTHS | Airline Mechanic Labor Negotiations Watch: News on negotiation progress, potential cost impacts, or threats of labor action that could disrupt the air network. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-27 | Q3 Earnings Beat and Guidance Raise Details: UPS reported Q3 non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of $1.69, beating expectations. The company raised its 2026 guidance for consolidated revenue and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS. | +5.3% $100.32 -> $105.62 |
2026-09-21 | Analyst Price Target Cut Details: An analyst note reiterated a 'Neutral' rating and cut its price target to $108 from $115, citing weaker domestic package volumes and lower earnings expectations. | -3.2% $99.06 -> $95.87 |
2026-08-31 | New Global Operating Model Details: The company announced executive leadership changes and a new global operating model effective September 1, 2026, following the retirement of a key executive. | -2.5% $105.33 -> $102.66 |
2026-07-28 | Q2 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: UPS reported Q2 non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of $1.76 and raised its full-year 2026 guidance. The stock reacted negatively, falling -7.0% over two days. | -7.4% $111.18 -> $102.92 |
2026-06-22 | Healthcare Logistics Investment Details: UPS announced a $48 million investment in 27 temperature-controlled freight cross-dock facilities to extend its lead in complex healthcare logistics. | +0.9% $103.21 -> $104.17 |
2026-05-06 | Quarterly Dividend Announced Details: The company announced its regular quarterly dividend of $1.64 per share on all outstanding Class A and Class B shares, payable June 4, 2026. | +2.1% $94.93 -> $96.90 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: UPS trades at roughly 26% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
FDX - FedEx
Direct CompetitorFedEx offers exposure to a different operational strategy focused on volume growth and a higher gross margin structure. The company is executing its own network transformation.
JBHT - JB Hunt Transport Services
Differentiated Logistics PlayJB Hunt provides exposure to different logistics segments like intermodal and dedicated contract services, which have different cyclical and competitive dynamics than small package delivery.
UPS is a logistics giant undergoing a deliberate transformation, sacrificing low-margin scale for higher-quality, more profitable revenue streams in premium B2B, SMB, and healthcare markets.
The company is in the final stages of a major strategic pivot, having intentionally reduced volume from its largest customer, Amazon, to reconfigure its network for greater efficiency and higher returns. This "Better, not Bigger" strategy is now showing results, with the core U.S. Domestic business demonstrating operating margin expansion. The focus is now on capturing growth in premium segments by leveraging its reliable global network and specialized capabilities.
Continued year-over-year operating margin expansion in the U.S. Domestic segment, sustained growth in SMB and healthcare volumes, and a positive spread between revenue per piece growth and cost per piece growth.
Failure to achieve targeted cost savings from network reconfiguration, market share losses in premium segments to competitors, or a significant macroeconomic downturn that disproportionately impacts B2B and SMB demand.
Short-term fluctuations in total average daily volume, which are expected due to the strategic reduction of low-margin business. News about a competitor's general e-commerce volume growth.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful completion of the Amazon volume "glide down" and network reconfiguration, leading to a return to consolidated revenue and operating profit growth, as reflected in the company's raised full-year 2026 guidance.
U.S. Domestic Package
$60.0B TTM (67% of Total) · 4% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides time-definite delivery of letters, documents, and packages throughout the United States, offering a full spectrum of air (Next Day Air, Deferred) and ground transportation services to both business and residential customers.
Who Pays & How
Businesses (B2B, SMBs) and consumers pay for domestic package delivery. They choose this segment for its industry-leading service reliability, particularly during peak seasons, and its comprehensive, integrated air and ground network serving nearly all U.S. zip codes.
Competition
International Package
$19.3B TTM (21% of Total) · 14% MarginWhat It Is
This segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It offers a wide selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services, supported by customs brokerage capabilities for cross-border shipments.
Who Pays & How
Businesses and consumers requiring international shipping pay for these services. They choose UPS for its significant presence in all major economies, serving over 200 countries and territories, which enables effective and efficient global operations.
Competition
United Parcel Service — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Air Freight & Logistics Resources |
| Air Cargo World |
| Logistics Management |
| Journal of Commerce (JOC) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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