Tearsheet

Maximus (MMS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $85.01 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Data Processing & Outsourced Services

Maximus (MMS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $85.01
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Data Processing & Outsourced Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MMS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Following a period of mixed financial news, Maximus (MMS) stock experienced a decline around the requested timeframe. While the company reported some positive aspects, several factors likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

1. Maximus reported fourth quarter 2025 revenue that fell short of analyst expectations. The company's Q4 2025 revenue was $1.32 billion, missing analyst estimates of $1.34 billion to $1.35 billion.

2. The fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance indicated a mild contraction in certain segments and was below analyst forecasts. Maximus projected fiscal 2026 revenue to range between $5.225 billion and $5.425 billion, with the midpoint reflecting a mild contraction in some areas, and this outlook was lower than the analyst sales estimate of $5.63 billion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MMS Return-0%10%-6%16%-10%18%27%
Peers Return2%17%1%6%16%-26%9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MMS Win Rate50%67%42%58%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate55%58%55%48%53%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MMS Max Drawdown-33%-0%-29%-3%-16%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-13%-19%-23%-14%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HQY, EXLS, CNDT, MERC, BR. See MMS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMMSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven260 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven320 days1480 days

Compare to HQY, EXLS, CNDT, MERC, BR


In The Past

Maximus's stock fell -41.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2021. A -41.7% loss requires a 71.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Maximus (MMS)

Better Bets than Maximus (MMS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MMS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Maximus

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MMSHQYEXLSCNDTMERCBRMedian
NameMaximus HealthEq.ExlServi.Conduent Mercer I.Broadrid. 
Mkt Price84.8698.6440.192.001.92230.4662.52
Mkt Cap4.88.56.50.30.127.05.6
Rev LTM5,4291,2692,0263,0721,9077,0562,549
Op Inc LTM517274307-85-691,243290
FCF LTM-144313287-130-621,227113
FCF 3Y Avg15095208-93-104993122
CFO LTM-56367339-71341,339186
CFO 3Y Avg243296259-7111,099251

Growth & Margins

MMSHQYEXLSCNDTMERCBRMedian
NameMaximus HealthEq.ExlServi.Conduent Mercer I.Broadrid. 
Rev Chg LTM3.4%15.4%14.4%-12.5%-5.8%8.6%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.0%16.9%15.0%-7.7%-4.9%6.8%6.4%
Rev Chg Q2.5%8.6%12.2%-5.0%-8.8%11.7%5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%2.1%2.9%-1.3%-2.3%2.4%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM9.5%21.6%15.1%-2.8%-3.6%17.6%12.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.3%15.6%14.6%0.2%-2.6%16.4%11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%2.0%-0.1%-0.2%-4.0%0.4%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.0%28.9%16.7%-2.3%1.8%19.0%9.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.8%26.5%14.3%-0.3%0.6%16.6%9.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.6%24.7%14.2%-4.2%-3.2%17.4%5.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%8.2%11.4%-2.8%-5.1%15.0%5.6%

Valuation

MMSHQYEXLSCNDTMERCBRMedian
NameMaximus HealthEq.ExlServi.Conduent Mercer I.Broadrid. 
Mkt Cap4.88.56.50.30.127.05.6
P/S0.77.13.50.10.13.92.1
P/EBIT7.736.521.5-2.7-2.721.414.6
P/E12.662.229.3-3.0-1.130.120.9
P/CFO-70.824.720.9-6.25.720.813.3
Total Yield9.7%1.6%3.4%-33.9%-79.0%4.8%2.5%
Dividend Yield1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.4%1.5%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%1.3%3.4%-16.8%-26.4%4.0%2.0%
D/E0.40.10.12.08.10.10.3
Net D/E0.40.10.01.47.60.10.3

Returns

MMSHQYEXLSCNDTMERCBRMedian
NameMaximus HealthEq.ExlServi.Conduent Mercer I.Broadrid. 
1M Rtn2.1%4.0%2.6%-15.3%0.5%4.2%2.4%
3M Rtn-3.8%3.2%-7.9%-28.8%-38.9%-7.4%-7.6%
6M Rtn20.5%-12.8%-14.3%-19.4%-47.4%-4.9%-13.5%
12M Rtn15.6%-2.7%-12.6%-51.0%-67.6%0.8%-7.6%
3Y Rtn21.3%50.5%9.5%-52.3%-84.7%62.7%15.4%
1M Excs Rtn2.1%4.1%2.7%-15.2%0.6%4.2%2.4%
3M Excs Rtn-9.1%-4.4%-14.3%-33.7%-45.2%-13.5%-13.9%
6M Excs Rtn5.8%-27.5%-29.0%-34.1%-62.1%-19.6%-28.2%
12M Excs Rtn2.2%-16.4%-26.9%-59.9%-81.7%-14.4%-21.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-42.5%-14.7%-64.8%-122.7%-157.5%-7.3%-53.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,339,886
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202530.3%
Average Daily Volume482,149
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.93
Basic Shares Quantity56,683,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241121202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231116202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221122202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211118202110-K 9/30/2021