Blue Bird (BLBD)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $64.0 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Blue Bird (BLBD)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $64.0Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 8.1% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Electric School Bus Manufacturing, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.58, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksBLBD key risks include [1] its strategic dependency on government incentives for its electric and alternative-powered bus sales and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities from its reliance on single-source suppliers. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 8.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Electric School Bus Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.58, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Key risksBLBD key risks include [1] its strategic dependency on government incentives for its electric and alternative-powered bus sales and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities from its reliance on single-source suppliers. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Full-Year Guidance.
Blue Bird reported exceptional fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 4, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.00, beating the consensus estimate of $0.80 by 25%. Revenue also surpassed forecasts, reaching $333.08 million against an expected $325.74 million. Following these strong results, Blue Bird raised its fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $225 million, up from a previous midpoint of $220 million. The positive earnings report and increased outlook contributed to a 14.5% jump in the stock price on February 5, 2026.
2. Robust Order Intake and Backlog Growth, Particularly in Electric Vehicles.
During fiscal Q1 2026, Blue Bird's order intake surged by 45% compared to the prior year, leading to a strong backlog of 3,400 units. Approximately 25% of this backlog consisted of electric vehicles (EVs). The company also reported delivering 121 electric-powered buses in Q1 and holds an EV firm order backlog of over 850 buses, supporting its 2026 EV sales target of approximately 800 units. This strong demand for alternative-powered buses signals market leadership and future revenue visibility.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.0% change in BLBD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.31 | 63.39 | 26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,480 | 1,499 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.6% | 8.7% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 15.5 | 24.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 26.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.5% | 51.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.9% change in BLBD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.96 | 63.39 | 26.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,421 | 1,499 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.6 | 15.5 | 14.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 26.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 34.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.9% | 41.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 81.8% change in BLBD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.87 | 63.39 | 81.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,343 | 1,499 | 11.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 15.5 | 49.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 81.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 81.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 34.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.2% | 38.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 239.0% change in BLBD stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 103.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.70 | 63.39 | 239.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 907 | 1,499 | 65.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 1.3 | 103.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 239.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 239.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 33.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 80.3% | 34.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLBD Return | -14% | -32% | 152% | 43% | 22% | 34% | 244% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -3% | 20% | -24% | 1% | 62% | 38% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLBD Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 45% | 48% | 38% | 57% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLBD Max Drawdown | -19% | -53% | 0% | -9% | -19% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -31% | -20% | -41% | -30% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PLOW, FSTR, SRI, CVGI, DE. See BLBD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLBD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 265 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 793 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Blue Bird's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BLBD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 265 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 793 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Blue Bird's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Blue Bird (BLBD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The John Deere of school buses.
- A focused Ford or General Motors, but exclusively for school buses.
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- School Buses: Blue Bird designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells various types of school buses, including Type C, Type D, and specialty models, available with alternative fuel options such as propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electric power.
- Related Parts: The company provides a range of parts for its school buses, which are distributed through its dedicated parts distribution center.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) sells its products primarily to other companies, organizations, and governmental entities, rather than to individuals. The provided background information does not list specific customer companies by name or symbol. Instead, it describes the channels and types of entities through which Blue Bird sells its school buses and related parts:
- Network of Dealers: Blue Bird sells its products to a network of independent dealerships. These dealers then resell the buses to end-users such as school districts, private schools, and other organizations requiring fleet transportation.
- Fleet Operators: This category includes organizations that operate their own fleets of vehicles. This can encompass private companies providing student transportation services, charter bus companies, and public entities like school districts directly managing their bus fleets.
- The United States Government: Blue Bird sells its buses directly to various agencies or departments within the federal government.
- State Governments: The company also sells directly to state-level governmental bodies, which may procure buses for state-operated services or for distribution to local entities.
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John Wyskiel, President & Chief Executive Officer
John Wyskiel was appointed President & Chief Executive Officer of Blue Bird Corporation effective February 17, 2025. He brings over 35 years of experience in manufacturing leadership, operational excellence, and global sales and supply chain management within the automotive and manufacturing industries. Prior to his current role, Mr. Wyskiel had a 20-year career at Magna International, where he most recently served as President of Magna Seating, overseeing a $6 billion business with 33,000 employees across more than 60 manufacturing facilities in 15 countries. He also held various senior roles at Magna, Dana Corporation, and Borg Warner and previously served as general manager of Blue Bird Coach in Canada from 2002 to 2004.
Razvan Radulescu, Chief Financial Officer
Razvan Radulescu was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Blue Bird Corporation effective October 1, 2021. He possesses over 20 years of financial and operating experience, primarily gained at Daimler Trucks, where he held various roles of increasing responsibility in Finance, Controlling, and Procurement, including IT, compliance, and investor relations. Most recently at Daimler Trucks, Mr. Radulescu served as General Manager of Procurement for Daimler Trucks North America. His previous roles also include CFO of the Global Powertrain Daimler Truck Business Unit in Stuttgart, Germany (2017-2020), and Controller for Freightliner Trucks within Daimler Trucks North America (2013-2017).
Jeff Sanfrey, Chief Operating Officer
Jeff Sanfrey serves as the Chief Operating Officer of Blue Bird Corporation. He has over 20 years of experience in manufacturing and operations leadership, with a background in lean manufacturing and strategic deployment. Before joining Blue Bird, Mr. Sanfrey held senior leadership roles including Senior Vice President of Manufacturing at GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Vice President of Operations at ECI. His experience spans multiple manufacturing environments, encompassing responsibility for safety, quality, cost, and operational performance.
Ted M. Scartz, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Ted M. Scartz serves as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Blue Bird Corporation. No specific background details meeting the requested criteria were found in the provided search results.
David M. Pasternak, Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
David M. Pasternak holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at Blue Bird Corporation. No specific background details meeting the requested criteria were found in the provided search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Blue Bird's business are:-
Reliance on Government Subsidies and Funding for Electric Vehicles: Blue Bird's growth strategy is heavily dependent on government incentives and funding programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean School Bus Program, which support the adoption of electric school buses (ESBs). There is a significant risk that these subsidies could be reduced or eliminated due to shifting political priorities or tightening state and federal budgets. Such a reduction could lead to a substantial decrease in demand for ESBs, impact the company's revenue, and negatively affect its profitability and long-term growth narrative, as school districts might revert to purchasing cheaper traditional diesel buses.
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Intense Competition in the Electric Vehicle Market: Although Blue Bird has established itself as an early leader in the electric school bus market, it faces increasing competition from larger, better-funded rivals who are also significantly investing in electric vehicle technology. If competitors develop and bring to market more advanced or cost-effective electric school bus models, Blue Bird's market share and pricing power could be eroded.
-
Supply Chain Disruptions and Input Cost Volatility: The company is vulnerable to disruptions in its supply chain, which have historically led to production delays and impacted revenue. Additionally, Blue Bird's profitability is sensitive to fluctuations in input costs, such as raw materials like steel and labor, as well as the unpredictable nature of tariffs and supplier inflation. These factors can lead to higher manufacturing costs and pressure on profit margins, even with pricing adjustments.
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Addressable Markets for Blue Bird (BLBD)
The addressable market for Blue Bird Corporation's main products, school buses and related services, is substantial, particularly within North America, where the company holds a significant position.
North American School Bus Market
The North American school bus market was valued at approximately USD 6.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 10.19 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.87% from 2025 to 2030. Within this region, the United States accounted for 86.36% of the North American school bus market share in 2024. Other estimates place the U.S. school bus market size at USD 5.6 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 8.3 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.50%.
Blue Bird manufactures Type C and Type D school buses, among others. In North America, Type C buses captured 43.24% of the market share in 2024, while Type D buses are expected to expand at an 8.02% CAGR through 2030. Globally, Type C buses held a dominant share of the market revenue in 2024.
Alternative Fuel and Electric School Bus Markets
Blue Bird is a key player in the alternative fuel segment, offering propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electric-powered school buses. The shift towards electric school buses is a significant driver in the market. The global electric school bus market was valued at approximately USD 45.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 389.3 billion by 2034, exhibiting a robust CAGR of 26.91% during 2026-2034. Another report estimates the global electric school bus market at USD 22.92 billion in 2025, forecasted to grow to USD 73.88 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 13.83%. In the USA, the electric school bus market is projected to reach USD 4.77 billion in 2025.
While internal combustion engines (primarily diesel) controlled the majority (92.82% in North America in 2024) of the school bus market share, battery-electric buses are forecast to post the fastest growth with a 7.92% CAGR between 2025 and 2030 in North America.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Blue Bird (BLBD) over the next 2-3 years:Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Blue Bird (BLBD)
- Accelerating Electric School Bus (ESB) Sales: Blue Bird is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for electric school buses, significantly driven by federal and state funding initiatives, such as the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean School Bus Program. The company aims to substantially increase its electric school bus sales, targeting approximately 1,150 units by fiscal year 2025 and 5,000 units annually post-2027. This growth in ESB sales, which are priced significantly higher than traditional diesel buses, is expected to be a primary revenue driver.
- Continued Leadership in Alternative Fuel Buses: Blue Bird maintains a leading market position in alternative power school buses, including propane, compressed natural gas (CNG), and gasoline-powered vehicles. Over 60% of Blue Bird's unit sales are non-diesel. The company recently extended its exclusive collaboration with Ford Component Sales and ROUSH CleanTech to 2030, ensuring its unique offering of propane- and gasoline-powered buses that meet stringent emission standards taking effect in 2027. This sustained leadership and product differentiation in the alternative fuel segment will continue to drive revenue.
- Favorable Pricing Actions and Product Mix: Blue Bird has successfully implemented pricing strategies and benefited from a product mix shift towards higher-value alternative fuel and electric buses. This has led to an increase in average revenue per bus and improved gross margins. The company's ability to align pricing with market economics and effectively pass through cost increases, including tariffs, is expected to continue supporting revenue growth.
- Replacement Demand from an Aging School Bus Fleet: A significant portion of the U.S. school bus fleet, approximately 45%, is 11 years or older. This aging fleet creates a consistent and healthy underlying replacement demand cycle, providing a steady volume driver for Blue Bird's bus sales over the next several years.
- Expansion into the EV Commercial Chassis Market: Blue Bird is diversifying its product portfolio by introducing an Electric Vehicle (EV) commercial chassis offering. Production for this new platform is anticipated to commence in late 2026 and is expected to contribute incremental revenue through fiscal year 2027 and beyond, helping to broaden the company's revenue base.
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Share Repurchases
- Blue Bird Corporation's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $60 million in aggregate of its outstanding common stock for 24 months, announced on February 1, 2024.
- On August 5, 2025, Blue Bird's Board approved a new share repurchase program for up to $100 million of common stock, effective until January 1, 2028. The company has repurchased $15 million in shares during the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
- As of September 29, 2025, Blue Bird had repurchased $49.9 million in shares from a previous $60 million program, including $9.9 million in late fiscal year 2024 and $39 million year-to-date in fiscal year 2025.
Share Issuance
- In February 2024, an affiliate of American Securities LLC, a selling stockholder, intended to offer 4,042,650 shares of Blue Bird common stock in a secondary public offering.
- In June 2023, affiliates of Coliseum Capital Management LLC and American Securities LLC, as selling stockholders, launched an underwritten secondary public offering of Blue Bird common stock.
- As of March 11, 2026, shareholders approved amendments to the 2015 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the common shares reserved for awards from 5,200,000 to 6,100,000, and raising the number of shares for Full Value Awards from 2,500,000 to 3,400,000.
Outbound Investments
- Blue Bird announced an agreement to acquire Girardin Group's 50% stake in the Micro Bird joint venture for approximately $200 million, with 30% paid in cash and 70% in Blue Bird common stock. This transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026.
- The Micro Bird acquisition aims to consolidate Blue Bird's North American operations, unify its brands, and expand its presence in the Buy America Act-compliant shuttle bus market.
Capital Expenditures
- Blue Bird's capital expenditures averaged 1.2% of revenue for fiscal years ending October 2021 to 2025.
- The company plans significant strategic investments in growth starting in fiscal year 2024, including approximately $25 million for R&D/Engineering expenses and $25 million for CAPEX/Tooling.
- Blue Bird is undertaking a significant capital investment for a new plant, with its portion being around $200 million over two years, and is also increasing regular capital expenditure spending and investing in engineering projects related to emissions regulations. Additionally, Blue Bird plans to invest $50 million in capital expenditures for growth and maintenance through fiscal year 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 759 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50 |
| FCF LTM | 52 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 25 |
| CFO LTM | 63 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 36 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 36.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 79.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 82.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 52.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $63.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/20/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.96 | $54.46 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.5% | 16.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.1% | 40.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| Upside Capture | 148.51 | 109.71 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.9% | 33.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.46 | 1.29 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 2.02 | 1.94 | 1.85 | 1.59 | 1.69 | 1.13 |
| Down Beta | 0.63 | 1.84 | 0.73 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Up Capture | 108% | 106% | 161% | 148% | 125% | 321% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 33 | 65 | 136 | 400 |
| Down Capture | -173% | 67% | 53% | 95% | 73% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 31 | 60 | 115 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLBD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 69.1% | 40.3% | 1.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.0% | 15.4% | 1.50 | 37.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 33.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 21.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 5.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLBD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 18.2% | 56.7% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.8% | 17.4% | 0.58 | 36.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 34.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 27.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLBD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 19.5% | 51.0% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 39.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 35.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | 11.8% | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| 11/24/2025 | -5.5% | -7.0% | -8.7% |
| 8/6/2025 | 18.5% | 28.0% | 33.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -1.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% |
| 2/5/2025 | 4.2% | -0.1% | -5.1% |
| 10/25/2024 | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.3% | -2.9% | -4.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | 24.5% | 41.1% | 50.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.2% | 15.6% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -7.8% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 36.3% | 41.1% | 50.1% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -18.3% | -25.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/12/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 225.00 Mil | 2.3% | Raised | Guidance: 220.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Revenue | 2.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 16.0% | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/24/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 220.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 16.0% | 10.3% | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 14.5% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrey, Jeffrey Scott | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 58.54 | 5,192 | 303,940 | 2,283,704 | Form |
| 2 | Radulescu, Razvan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 60.98 | 3,925 | 239,346 | 2,576,710 | Form |
| 3 | Radulescu, Razvan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 51.58 | 7,006 | 361,369 | 2,381,964 | Form |
| 4 | Horlock, Phil | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 50.42 | 15,381 | 775,489 | 11,363,609 | Form | |
| 5 | Radulescu, Razvan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 50.39 | 7,984 | 402,314 | 2,473,494 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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