Blue Bird (BLBD)


Market Price (8/11/2026): $65.56 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Blue Bird (BLBD)


Market Price (8/11/2026): $65.56
Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 6.8%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Electric School Bus Manufacturing, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%

Key risks
BLBD key risks include [1] its strategic dependency on government incentives for its electric and alternative-powered bus sales and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities from its reliance on single-source suppliers.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 6.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Electric School Bus Manufacturing, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Key risks
BLBD key risks include [1] its strategic dependency on government incentives for its electric and alternative-powered bus sales and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities from its reliance on single-source suppliers.

BLBD in ETFs

Weight = BLBD's share of each fund

IWM0.08%
AVUV0.28%
IWO0.13%
VTWO0.08%
DFAS0.05%
SCHA0.04%
DFAC0.01%
ONEQ0.01%
+2 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/6/2026

Blue Bird (BLBD) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Blue Bird reported robust financial results for its fiscal second quarter of 2026 (ending March 28, 2026), exceeding analyst expectations and subsequently raising its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.00, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.88 by $0.12, and achieved revenues of $352.63 million, above the $335.23 million forecast. Additionally, Blue Bird recorded a record Adjusted EBITDA of $51 million with a 14% margin, and record free cash flow of $40 million for the quarter.

2. Strong performance continued into fiscal third quarter of 2026 (ending July 3, 2026), further bolstered by the full consolidation of Micro Bird. Blue Bird reported fiscal Q3 2026 EPS of $1.28, beating the $1.25 consensus estimate, and revenues of $517.16 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $485.73 million. Net sales increased by 30% year-over-year from $398 million, with the full consolidation of Micro Bird in April 2026 significantly contributing approximately $123 million to Q3 revenue and $8 million to EBITDA. This operational strength led the company to further raise its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $1.8 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $245-$250 million.

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Updated on 8/6/2026

Blue Bird (BLBD) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Blue Bird reported robust financial results for its fiscal second quarter of 2026 (ending March 28, 2026), exceeding analyst expectations and subsequently raising its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.00, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.88 by $0.12, and achieved revenues of $352.63 million, above the $335.23 million forecast. Additionally, Blue Bird recorded a record Adjusted EBITDA of $51 million with a 14% margin, and record free cash flow of $40 million for the quarter.

2. Strong performance continued into fiscal third quarter of 2026 (ending July 3, 2026), further bolstered by the full consolidation of Micro Bird. Blue Bird reported fiscal Q3 2026 EPS of $1.28, beating the $1.25 consensus estimate, and revenues of $517.16 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $485.73 million. Net sales increased by 30% year-over-year from $398 million, with the full consolidation of Micro Bird in April 2026 significantly contributing approximately $123 million to Q3 revenue and $8 million to EBITDA. This operational strength led the company to further raise its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $1.8 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $245-$250 million.

3. A new strategic partnership with Ford Motor Company has expanded Blue Bird's commercial opportunities and long-term revenue outlook. Announced on August 5, 2026, Blue Bird entered into a definitive agreement to design, manufacture, and sell the next-generation F-53/F-59 commercial stripped chassis. This collaboration is expected to broaden Blue Bird's addressable market beyond school buses, adding a new long-term revenue stream and strengthening its role in the specialty vehicle and chassis market.

4. The company sustained its leadership in the alternative-powered bus market, particularly in electric vehicles. Blue Bird's fiscal Q2 2026 results highlighted a strong electric vehicle (EV) backlog of over 900 EV buses and a raised EV sales target for fiscal 2026. During fiscal Q3 2026, alternative-powered buses accounted for 54% of unit sales, with 355 electric units shipped and an EV backlog of approximately 776 units for core Blue Bird buses, demonstrating continued demand and market penetration for its cleaner transportation solutions.

5. Analyst sentiment remained predominantly positive, with multiple firms raising price targets on the stock. Following the strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report and the Ford partnership announcement, analysts from DA Davidson and BTIG Research increased their price targets. DA Davidson raised its target to $91 from $86 while maintaining a Buy rating, and BTIG Research increased its target to $95 from $80, also maintaining a Buy rating. The consensus rating for BLBD stood as a "Moderate Buy" or "Strong Buy" with an average price target ranging from $85.50 to $86.00 as of early August 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 1.9% change in BLBD stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 102.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)43020268102026Change
Stock Price ($)64.1165.331.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,4991,6127.5%
Net Income Margin (%)8.7%17.5%102.0%
P/E Multiple15.77.9-49.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3234-7.2%
Cumulative Contribution1.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BLBD1.9% 
Market (SPY)7.6%35.9%
Sector (XLI)5.7%37.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 29.9% change in BLBD stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 102.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120268102026Change
Stock Price ($)50.3165.3329.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,4801,6128.9%
Net Income Margin (%)8.6%17.5%102.6%
P/E Multiple12.57.9-36.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3234-7.3%
Cumulative Contribution29.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BLBD29.9% 
Market (SPY)12.0%37.3%
Sector (XLI)11.9%43.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 45.9% change in BLBD stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 119.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120258102026Change
Stock Price ($)44.7965.3345.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3561,61218.9%
Net Income Margin (%)8.0%17.5%119.2%
P/E Multiple13.27.9-40.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3234-6.8%
Cumulative Contribution45.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BLBD45.9% 
Market (SPY)23.3%32.1%
Sector (XLI)22.7%34.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 212.0% change in BLBD stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120238102026Change
Stock Price ($)20.9465.33212.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9991,61261.3%
P/S Multiple0.71.4106.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3234-6.4%
Cumulative Contribution212.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BLBD212.0% 
Market (SPY)74.8%37.5%
Sector (XLI)74.1%39.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
BLBD Return-14%-32%152%43%22%46%277%
Peers Return-5%-3%20%-24%1%61%37%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BLBD Win Rate50%42%58%33%50%62% 
Peers Win Rate42%45%48%38%57%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BLBD Max Drawdown-48%-66%-37%-37%-26%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-39%-34%-46%-37%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PLOW, FSTR, SRI, CVGI, DE. See BLBD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventBLBDS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-11.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven6 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-15.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.9%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven28 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-13.7%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven16 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-53.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven114.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven90 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-53.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven113.6%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven265 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven793 days105 days

Compare to PLOW, FSTR, SRI, CVGI, DE

In The Past

Blue Bird's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventBLBDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-53.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven114.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven90 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-53.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven113.6%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven265 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven793 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-34.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven53.1%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven149 days62 days

Compare to PLOW, FSTR, SRI, CVGI, DE

In The Past

Blue Bird's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Blue Bird (BLBD)

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a long-established manufacturer specializing in the design, engineering, manufacturing, and sale of school buses and their related parts. Headquartered in Macon, Georgia, and founded in 1927, the company operates across the United States, Canada, and other international markets through its Bus and Parts segments.

The company's core product line includes various types of school buses, such as Type C, Type D, and specialty buses. A key differentiator for Blue Bird is its strong emphasis on alternative fuel applications, offering models powered by propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), and electricity, catering to growing demands for more sustainable transportation solutions. Additionally, Blue Bird maintains a parts distribution center to support its vehicle fleet.

Blue Bird serves a diverse customer base, distributing its products through an established network of dealers, as well as engaging in direct sales to large fleet operators, the United States government, and various state governments.

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  • The John Deere of school buses.
  • A focused Ford or General Motors, but exclusively for school buses.

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  • School Buses: Blue Bird designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells various types of school buses, including Type C, Type D, and specialty models, available with alternative fuel options such as propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electric power.
  • Related Parts: The company provides a range of parts for its school buses, which are distributed through its dedicated parts distribution center.

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Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) sells its products primarily to other companies, organizations, and governmental entities, rather than to individuals. The provided background information does not list specific customer companies by name or symbol. Instead, it describes the channels and types of entities through which Blue Bird sells its school buses and related parts:

  • Network of Dealers: Blue Bird sells its products to a network of independent dealerships. These dealers then resell the buses to end-users such as school districts, private schools, and other organizations requiring fleet transportation.
  • Fleet Operators: This category includes organizations that operate their own fleets of vehicles. This can encompass private companies providing student transportation services, charter bus companies, and public entities like school districts directly managing their bus fleets.
  • The United States Government: Blue Bird sells its buses directly to various agencies or departments within the federal government.
  • State Governments: The company also sells directly to state-level governmental bodies, which may procure buses for state-operated services or for distribution to local entities.

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  • Cummins Inc. (CMI)
  • Ford Motor Company (F)

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John Wyskiel, President & Chief Executive Officer

John Wyskiel was appointed President & Chief Executive Officer of Blue Bird Corporation effective February 17, 2025. He brings over 35 years of experience in manufacturing leadership, operational excellence, and global sales and supply chain management within the automotive and manufacturing industries. Prior to his current role, Mr. Wyskiel had a 20-year career at Magna International, where he most recently served as President of Magna Seating, overseeing a $6 billion business with 33,000 employees across more than 60 manufacturing facilities in 15 countries. He also held various senior roles at Magna, Dana Corporation, and Borg Warner and previously served as general manager of Blue Bird Coach in Canada from 2002 to 2004.

Razvan Radulescu, Chief Financial Officer

Razvan Radulescu was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Blue Bird Corporation effective October 1, 2021. He possesses over 20 years of financial and operating experience, primarily gained at Daimler Trucks, where he held various roles of increasing responsibility in Finance, Controlling, and Procurement, including IT, compliance, and investor relations. Most recently at Daimler Trucks, Mr. Radulescu served as General Manager of Procurement for Daimler Trucks North America. His previous roles also include CFO of the Global Powertrain Daimler Truck Business Unit in Stuttgart, Germany (2017-2020), and Controller for Freightliner Trucks within Daimler Trucks North America (2013-2017).

Jeff Sanfrey, Chief Operating Officer

Jeff Sanfrey serves as the Chief Operating Officer of Blue Bird Corporation. He has over 20 years of experience in manufacturing and operations leadership, with a background in lean manufacturing and strategic deployment. Before joining Blue Bird, Mr. Sanfrey held senior leadership roles including Senior Vice President of Manufacturing at GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Vice President of Operations at ECI. His experience spans multiple manufacturing environments, encompassing responsibility for safety, quality, cost, and operational performance.

Ted M. Scartz, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary

Ted M. Scartz serves as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Blue Bird Corporation. No specific background details meeting the requested criteria were found in the provided search results.

David M. Pasternak, Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer

David M. Pasternak holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at Blue Bird Corporation. No specific background details meeting the requested criteria were found in the provided search results.

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The key risks to Blue Bird's business are:
  1. Reliance on Government Subsidies and Funding for Electric Vehicles: Blue Bird's growth strategy is heavily dependent on government incentives and funding programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean School Bus Program, which support the adoption of electric school buses (ESBs). There is a significant risk that these subsidies could be reduced or eliminated due to shifting political priorities or tightening state and federal budgets. Such a reduction could lead to a substantial decrease in demand for ESBs, impact the company's revenue, and negatively affect its profitability and long-term growth narrative, as school districts might revert to purchasing cheaper traditional diesel buses.

  2. Intense Competition in the Electric Vehicle Market: Although Blue Bird has established itself as an early leader in the electric school bus market, it faces increasing competition from larger, better-funded rivals who are also significantly investing in electric vehicle technology. If competitors develop and bring to market more advanced or cost-effective electric school bus models, Blue Bird's market share and pricing power could be eroded.

  3. Supply Chain Disruptions and Input Cost Volatility: The company is vulnerable to disruptions in its supply chain, which have historically led to production delays and impacted revenue. Additionally, Blue Bird's profitability is sensitive to fluctuations in input costs, such as raw materials like steel and labor, as well as the unpredictable nature of tariffs and supplier inflation. These factors can lead to higher manufacturing costs and pressure on profit margins, even with pricing adjustments.

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Addressable Markets for Blue Bird (BLBD)

The addressable market for Blue Bird Corporation's main products, school buses and related services, is substantial, particularly within North America, where the company holds a significant position.

North American School Bus Market

The North American school bus market was valued at approximately USD 6.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 10.19 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.87% from 2025 to 2030. Within this region, the United States accounted for 86.36% of the North American school bus market share in 2024. Other estimates place the U.S. school bus market size at USD 5.6 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 8.3 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.50%.

Blue Bird manufactures Type C and Type D school buses, among others. In North America, Type C buses captured 43.24% of the market share in 2024, while Type D buses are expected to expand at an 8.02% CAGR through 2030. Globally, Type C buses held a dominant share of the market revenue in 2024.

Alternative Fuel and Electric School Bus Markets

Blue Bird is a key player in the alternative fuel segment, offering propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electric-powered school buses. The shift towards electric school buses is a significant driver in the market. The global electric school bus market was valued at approximately USD 45.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 389.3 billion by 2034, exhibiting a robust CAGR of 26.91% during 2026-2034. Another report estimates the global electric school bus market at USD 22.92 billion in 2025, forecasted to grow to USD 73.88 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 13.83%. In the USA, the electric school bus market is projected to reach USD 4.77 billion in 2025.

While internal combustion engines (primarily diesel) controlled the majority (92.82% in North America in 2024) of the school bus market share, battery-electric buses are forecast to post the fastest growth with a 7.92% CAGR between 2025 and 2030 in North America.

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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Blue Bird (BLBD) over the next 2-3 years:

Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Blue Bird (BLBD)

  1. Accelerating Electric School Bus (ESB) Sales: Blue Bird is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for electric school buses, significantly driven by federal and state funding initiatives, such as the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean School Bus Program. The company aims to substantially increase its electric school bus sales, targeting approximately 1,150 units by fiscal year 2025 and 5,000 units annually post-2027. This growth in ESB sales, which are priced significantly higher than traditional diesel buses, is expected to be a primary revenue driver.
  2. Continued Leadership in Alternative Fuel Buses: Blue Bird maintains a leading market position in alternative power school buses, including propane, compressed natural gas (CNG), and gasoline-powered vehicles. Over 60% of Blue Bird's unit sales are non-diesel. The company recently extended its exclusive collaboration with Ford Component Sales and ROUSH CleanTech to 2030, ensuring its unique offering of propane- and gasoline-powered buses that meet stringent emission standards taking effect in 2027. This sustained leadership and product differentiation in the alternative fuel segment will continue to drive revenue.
  3. Favorable Pricing Actions and Product Mix: Blue Bird has successfully implemented pricing strategies and benefited from a product mix shift towards higher-value alternative fuel and electric buses. This has led to an increase in average revenue per bus and improved gross margins. The company's ability to align pricing with market economics and effectively pass through cost increases, including tariffs, is expected to continue supporting revenue growth.
  4. Replacement Demand from an Aging School Bus Fleet: A significant portion of the U.S. school bus fleet, approximately 45%, is 11 years or older. This aging fleet creates a consistent and healthy underlying replacement demand cycle, providing a steady volume driver for Blue Bird's bus sales over the next several years.
  5. Expansion into the EV Commercial Chassis Market: Blue Bird is diversifying its product portfolio by introducing an Electric Vehicle (EV) commercial chassis offering. Production for this new platform is anticipated to commence in late 2026 and is expected to contribute incremental revenue through fiscal year 2027 and beyond, helping to broaden the company's revenue base.

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Share Repurchases

  • Blue Bird Corporation's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $60 million in aggregate of its outstanding common stock for 24 months, announced on February 1, 2024.
  • On August 5, 2025, Blue Bird's Board approved a new share repurchase program for up to $100 million of common stock, effective until January 1, 2028. The company has repurchased $15 million in shares during the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • As of September 29, 2025, Blue Bird had repurchased $49.9 million in shares from a previous $60 million program, including $9.9 million in late fiscal year 2024 and $39 million year-to-date in fiscal year 2025.

Share Issuance

  • In February 2024, an affiliate of American Securities LLC, a selling stockholder, intended to offer 4,042,650 shares of Blue Bird common stock in a secondary public offering.
  • In June 2023, affiliates of Coliseum Capital Management LLC and American Securities LLC, as selling stockholders, launched an underwritten secondary public offering of Blue Bird common stock.
  • As of March 11, 2026, shareholders approved amendments to the 2015 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the common shares reserved for awards from 5,200,000 to 6,100,000, and raising the number of shares for Full Value Awards from 2,500,000 to 3,400,000.

Outbound Investments

  • Blue Bird announced an agreement to acquire Girardin Group's 50% stake in the Micro Bird joint venture for approximately $200 million, with 30% paid in cash and 70% in Blue Bird common stock. This transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026.
  • The Micro Bird acquisition aims to consolidate Blue Bird's North American operations, unify its brands, and expand its presence in the Buy America Act-compliant shuttle bus market.

Capital Expenditures

  • Blue Bird's capital expenditures averaged 1.2% of revenue for fiscal years ending October 2021 to 2025.
  • The company plans significant strategic investments in growth starting in fiscal year 2024, including approximately $25 million for R&D/Engineering expenses and $25 million for CAPEX/Tooling.
  • Blue Bird is undertaking a significant capital investment for a new plant, with its portion being around $200 million over two years, and is also increasing regular capital expenditure spending and investing in engineering projects related to emissions regulations. Additionally, Blue Bird plans to invest $50 million in capital expenditures for growth and maintenance through fiscal year 2027.

Better Bets vs. Blue Bird (BLBD)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BLBDPLOWFSTRSRICVGIDEMedian
NameBlue BirdDouglas .L.B. Fos.Stonerid.Commerci.Deere  
Mkt Price65.3342.6639.587.113.31609.2841.12
Mkt Cap2.21.00.40.20.1164.60.7
Rev LTM1,61269956375867446,313728
Op Inc LTM1907926-21-18,07052
FCF LTM1534941-5-03,76845
FCF 3Y Avg12546177-24,34631
CFO LTM180625113117,93357
CFO 3Y Avg146562631138,82344

Growth & Margins

BLBDPLOWFSTRSRICVGIDEMedian
NameBlue BirdDouglas .L.B. Fos.Stonerid.Commerci.Deere  
Rev Chg LTM13.5%20.1%11.7%2.6%-0.4%4.2%7.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.1%4.9%3.5%-7.2%-5.9%-6.8%-1.2%
Rev Chg Q29.9%10.5%23.9%15.1%13.5%4.5%14.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.0%3.0%4.3%3.2%3.6%1.2%3.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM33.3%38.9%98.5%-68.9%86.7%-14.1%36.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg8,551.3%12.9%105.1%-70.8%-30.0%-11.8%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM11.8%11.3%4.6%-2.8%-0.1%17.4%7.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.9%10.2%3.0%-0.9%0.6%21.0%6.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.6%0.5%0.5%0.1%-0.6%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM11.2%8.9%9.1%1.7%1.6%17.1%9.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.0%9.1%4.7%3.9%1.6%18.0%6.9%
FCF/Rev LTM9.5%7.0%7.2%-0.6%-0.1%8.1%7.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%7.5%3.1%1.0%-0.5%8.8%5.3%

Valuation

BLBDPLOWFSTRSRICVGIDEMedian
NameBlue BirdDouglas .L.B. Fos.Stonerid.Commerci.Deere  
Mkt Cap2.21.00.40.20.1164.60.7
P/S1.41.40.70.30.23.61.1
P/Op Inc11.812.515.6-9.4-210.420.412.2
P/EBIT6.812.415.4-4.6-113.318.09.6
P/E7.918.836.2-1.7-5.034.413.4
P/CFO12.415.97.915.210.720.713.8
Total Yield12.6%8.2%2.8%-59.5%-20.0%4.0%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.9%6.3%4.4%4.1%-10.2%3.4%4.2%
D/E0.10.30.20.80.90.40.3
Net D/E-0.00.30.20.40.60.30.3

Returns

BLBDPLOWFSTRSRICVGIDEMedian
NameBlue BirdDouglas .L.B. Fos.Stonerid.Commerci.Deere  
1M Rtn-15.6%-0.8%-7.0%-0.7%-31.9%3.8%-3.9%
3M Rtn-7.1%-6.2%-3.3%-2.5%-36.5%3.8%-4.7%
6M Rtn13.9%6.9%26.2%-20.3%89.1%4.6%10.4%
12M Rtn18.1%42.5%79.3%-8.8%88.1%20.9%31.7%
3Y Rtn209.6%51.9%130.8%-68.6%-67.7%45.9%48.9%
1M Excs Rtn-17.9%-3.2%-9.3%-3.0%-34.2%1.5%-6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-12.8%-10.0%-11.2%-11.7%-39.9%1.5%-11.5%
6M Excs Rtn-1.5%-4.7%12.9%-27.9%91.2%-6.8%-3.1%
12M Excs Rtn2.6%20.8%53.6%-37.0%65.8%-0.5%11.7%
3Y Excs Rtn149.0%-25.1%102.1%-142.0%-140.0%-22.5%-23.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Bus1,3771,2431,035724
Parts1031049877
Total1,4801,3471,133801


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$65.33 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.1 
First Trading Date03/20/2014 
Distance from 52W High-19.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$74.34$60.62
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-12.1%7.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility51.6%42.4%
Downside Capture219.29122.06
Upside Capture145.43112.97
Correlation (SPY)39.9%34.8%
BLBD Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.011.101.221.241.101.13
Up Beta2.740.861.361.731.551.14
Down Beta1.341.922.171.401.190.85
Up Capture-5%124%114%153%122%315%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days8233568133403
Down Capture88%56%59%69%77%104%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days14202858119346

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BLBD
BLBD25.0%42.6%0.64-
Sector ETF (XLI)23.9%17.0%1.0937.9%
Equity (SPY)23.4%12.8%1.3734.5%
Gold (GLD)28.7%28.4%0.8812.6%
Commodities (DBC)37.2%20.1%1.46-20.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.4%13.8%0.6013.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.9%43.0%-1.273.3%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BLBD
BLBD21.9%56.9%0.56-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.1%17.6%0.6335.8%
Equity (SPY)13.5%17.2%0.6134.2%
Gold (GLD)18.9%18.6%0.836.2%
Commodities (DBC)9.2%19.6%0.362.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.1%18.9%0.0126.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.6%52.9%0.3913.3%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BLBD
BLBD16.7%51.5%0.50-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.2%20.0%0.6240.1%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7335.4%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.2%0.612.3%
Commodities (DBC)7.7%18.1%0.3410.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%20.7%0.1830.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.3%66.2%0.9810.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 63020269.6%
Average Daily Volume0.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity34.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.6%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/10/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/2026-14.2%  
5/6/20268.9%9.2%7.1%
2/4/202611.8%16.3%10.2%
11/24/2025-5.5%-7.0%-8.7%
8/6/202518.5%28.0%33.3%
5/7/2025-1.4%5.6%7.5%
2/5/20254.2%-0.1%-5.1%
11/25/2024-5.0%-2.6%-6.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121315
# Negative13119
Median Positive10.8%16.3%13.7%
Median Negative-5.5%-7.0%-7.5%
Max Positive36.3%48.4%50.1%
Max Negative-16.7%-18.3%-25.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/2026-14.2%  
5/6/20268.9%9.2%7.1%
2/4/202611.8%16.3%10.2%
11/24/2025-5.5%-7.0%-8.7%
8/6/202518.5%28.0%33.3%
5/7/2025-1.4%5.6%7.5%
2/5/20254.2%-0.1%-5.1%
11/25/2024-5.0%-2.6%-6.6%
8/7/20240.3%-2.9%-4.4%
5/8/202424.5%41.1%50.1%
2/7/2024-2.9%1.9%3.7%
12/11/202310.5%17.9%13.7%
8/9/2023-3.9%-1.9%3.5%
5/11/202336.3%28.8%12.1%
2/8/202329.9%48.4%49.3%
12/12/2022-16.7%-13.4%21.0%
8/10/2022-2.7%4.2%-7.5%
5/12/2022-7.6%-14.4%-25.1%
2/9/202211.1%30.4%29.1%
12/15/2021-3.6%-7.8%-1.4%
8/12/2021-8.8%-18.3%-22.1%
5/12/20218.2%4.0%3.5%
2/10/2021-10.1%-6.8%20.4%
12/16/20200.4%13.1%48.8%
8/12/2020-12.9%-16.9%-14.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121315
# Negative13119
Median Positive10.8%16.3%13.7%
Median Negative-5.5%-7.0%-7.5%
Max Positive36.3%48.4%50.1%
Max Negative-16.7%-18.3%-25.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/04/202610-Q
09/30/202511/24/202510-K
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-Q
09/30/202411/25/202410-K
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-Q
09/30/202312/11/202310-K
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202202/08/202310-Q
09/30/202212/12/202210-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/04/202610-Q
09/30/202511/24/202510-K
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-Q
09/30/202411/25/202410-K
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-Q
09/30/202312/11/202310-K
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202202/08/202310-Q
09/30/202212/12/202210-K
06/30/202208/10/202210-Q
03/31/202205/12/202210-Q
12/31/202102/09/202210-Q
09/30/202112/15/202110-K
06/30/202108/12/202110-Q
03/31/202105/12/202110-Q
12/31/202002/11/202110-Q
09/30/202012/17/202010-K
06/30/202008/13/202010-Q
03/31/202005/14/202010-Q
12/31/201902/13/202010-Q
09/30/201912/12/201910-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/6/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue 1.75 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.75 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 247.00 Mil 0.8% RaisedGuidance: 245.00 Mil for 2026
2030 Adjusted EBITDA 500.00 Mil    
2030 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 15.0%    
2030 Revenue 3.30 Bil    

Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue 2.50 Bil 66.7% RaisedGuidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 375.00 Mil 66.7% RaisedGuidance: 225.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 15.0%    

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue 1.50 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 225.00 Mil 2.3% RaisedGuidance: 220.00 Mil for 2026
2027 Revenue 2.00 Bil    
2027 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 16.0%    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/24/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue 2.00 Bil 37.9% Higher NewGuidance: 1.45 Bil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 220.00 Mil 4.8% AffirmedGuidance: 210.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 16.0%  1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 14.5% for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 5/20/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Thau, Daniel Mark DirectBuy520202665.0930019,527566,023Form
2Sanfrey, Jeffrey ScottChief Operating OfficerDirectSell305202658.545,192303,9402,283,704Form
3Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell220202660.983,925239,3462,576,710Form
4Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1217202551.587,006361,3692,381,964Form
5Horlock, Phil DirectSell1216202550.4215,381775,48911,363,609Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Thau, Daniel Mark DirectBuy520202665.0930019,527566,023Form
2Sanfrey, Jeffrey ScottChief Operating OfficerDirectSell305202658.545,192303,9402,283,704Form
3Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell220202660.983,925239,3462,576,710Form
4Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1217202551.587,006361,3692,381,964Form
5Horlock, Phil DirectSell1216202550.4215,381775,48911,363,609Form
6Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1210202550.397,984402,3142,473,494Form
7Thau, Daniel Mark DirectBuy1205202551.0540020,420311,354Form
8Horlock, Phil DirectSell915202558.0013,578787,52413,964,428Form
9Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell903202557.416,709385,1642,341,984Form
10Horlock, Phil DirectSell902202559.0213,000767,26014,210,009Form
11Horlock, Phil DirectSell819202558.1621,1291,228,86314,002,951Form
12Horlock, Phil DirectSell819202557.1821,1291,208,15613,767,000Form
13Horlock, Phil DirectSell815202556.0615,848888,43913,497,342Form
14Scartz, TedSVP General CounselDirectSell814202555.228,877490,1882,693,024Form
15Horlock, Phil DirectSell811202560.0030,0001,800,00014,445,960Form
16Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell811202560.0270042,0142,851,130Form
17Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell808202553.2110,000532,1002,564,882Form
18Radulescu, RazvanChief Financial OfficerDirectSell709202545.1910,000451,9002,630,194Form
19Horlock, Phil DirectSell613202541.3814,875615,52811,204,297Form
20Horlock, Phil DirectSell611202541.7013,289554,10711,290,038Form
21Horlock, Phil DirectSell611202541.048,860363,61411,112,237Form
22Thau, Daniel Mark DirectBuy529202539.1740015,668223,230Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 11, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
325 Capital LLC$38.6 Mil14.1%12Hold13F
Neumeier Poma Investment Counsel LLC$35.5 Mil2.9%41ADD +31.3%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Neumeier Poma Investment Counsel LLC$35.5 Mil2.9%41ADD +31.3%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
325 Capital LLC$38.6 Mil14.1%12Hold13F
Neumeier Poma Investment Counsel LLC$35.5 Mil2.9%41ADD +31.3%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/10/2026