Tearsheet

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.72 | Market Cap: $81.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.72
Market Cap: $81.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UPS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual stock movements and their specific causes for this period cannot be determined as of today, December 4, 2025. However, there is information available regarding UPS's performance and strategic initiatives in 2025 that could influence stock prices. Here are some key points based on available information for 2025 that may be relevant to UPS's stock performance:

1. UPS reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and adjusted EPS. The company announced consolidated revenues of $21.4 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.55, with a non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.74. This performance was partially driven by a $330 million pre-tax gain from a sale-leaseback transaction, which contributed $0.30 to diluted earnings per share.

2. UPS provided a positive Q4 2025 financial guidance and full-year capital allocation expectations, projecting consolidated revenue of approximately $24.0 billion for Q4 and an adjusted operating margin between 11.0% and 11.5%. For the full year 2025, UPS expects consolidated revenue to be around $89.0 billion with an operating margin of approximately 10.8%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UPS Return49%30%-15%-6%-16%-19%5%
Peers Return48%21%-29%66%18%7%164%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPS Win Rate67%58%67%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%58%35%65%52%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPS Max Drawdown-26%-8%-24%-20%-20%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-8%-41%-5%-10%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUPSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven125 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven584 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX


In The Past

United Parcel Service's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About United Parcel Service (UPS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
UPS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023UPSUnited Parcel ServiceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%-0.8%-9.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
UPS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023UPSUnited Parcel ServiceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%-0.8%-9.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for United Parcel Service

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
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Returns

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment90,958    
International Package 19,69819,54115,94514,220
Supply Chain Solutions 16,43117,42915,18413,381
United States (U.S.) Domestic Package 64,20960,31753,49946,493
Total90,958100,33897,28784,62874,094


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,418,756
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume6,982,771
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.78
Basic Shares Quantity848,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Shi Christiana Smith 8262025Buy88.1750044,08444,084Form