United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.72 | Market Cap: $81.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.72Market Cap: $81.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UPS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual stock movements and their specific causes for this period cannot be determined as of today, December 4, 2025. However, there is information available regarding UPS's performance and strategic initiatives in 2025 that could influence stock prices.
Here are some key points based on available information for 2025 that may be relevant to UPS's stock performance:
1. UPS reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and adjusted EPS. The company announced consolidated revenues of $21.4 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.55, with a non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.74. This performance was partially driven by a $330 million pre-tax gain from a sale-leaseback transaction, which contributed $0.30 to diluted earnings per share.
2. UPS provided a positive Q4 2025 financial guidance and full-year capital allocation expectations, projecting consolidated revenue of approximately $24.0 billion for Q4 and an adjusted operating margin between 11.0% and 11.5%. For the full year 2025, UPS expects consolidated revenue to be around $89.0 billion with an operating margin of approximately 10.8%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPS Return | 49% | 30% | -15% | -6% | -16% | -19% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 48% | 21% | -29% | 66% | 18% | 7% | 164% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPS Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 58% | 35% | 65% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPS Max Drawdown | -26% | -8% | -24% | -20% | -20% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -8% | -41% | -5% | -10% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 584 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX
In The Past
United Parcel Service's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | UPS | United Parcel Service | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | -0.8% | -9.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | UPS | United Parcel Service | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | -0.8% | -9.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for United Parcel Service
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Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shi Christiana Smith | 8262025 | Buy | 88.17 | 500 | 44,084 | 44,084 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
