Ulta Beauty (ULTA)


Market Price (10/19/2026): $592.5 | Market Cap: $25.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)


Market Price (10/19/2026): $592.5
Market Cap: $25.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -23%

Key risks
ULTA key risks include [1] eroding market share in the prestige beauty segment due to intense competition and [2] rising inventory shrink from organized retail crime.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -23%
6 Key risks
ULTA key risks include [1] eroding market share in the prestige beauty segment due to intense competition and [2] rising inventory shrink from organized retail crime.

ULTA in ETFs

Weight = ULTA's share of each fund

SPY0.04%
VOO0.04%
IVV0.04%
VTI0.03%
ITOT0.04%
IWB0.03%
RSP0.21%
VTV0.09%
+25 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/14/2026

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock has gained about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Ulta Beauty reported stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results and raised its full-year guidance. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.55 for the fiscal second quarter ended August 1, 2026, a 13.3% increase year-over-year, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $6.17. Net sales grew 8.9% to $3.0 billion, surpassing the $2.98 billion forecast. Following this strong performance, management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook for net sales growth to 6.7%-7.2%, comparable sales growth to 3.2%-3.7%, operating income growth to 8.3%-9.3%, and diluted EPS to $28.70-$29.00.

2. The company increased its fiscal 2026 share repurchase program, boosting investor confidence and EPS. Ulta Beauty increased its stock repurchase plan for fiscal 2026 to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion, with plans to utilize the remaining $1.0 billion of its current authorization by year-end. This aggressive capital allocation strategy has been highlighted as a major driver of EPS growth.

Show more
Updated on 10/14/2026

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock has gained about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Ulta Beauty reported stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results and raised its full-year guidance. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.55 for the fiscal second quarter ended August 1, 2026, a 13.3% increase year-over-year, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $6.17. Net sales grew 8.9% to $3.0 billion, surpassing the $2.98 billion forecast. Following this strong performance, management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook for net sales growth to 6.7%-7.2%, comparable sales growth to 3.2%-3.7%, operating income growth to 8.3%-9.3%, and diluted EPS to $28.70-$29.00.

2. The company increased its fiscal 2026 share repurchase program, boosting investor confidence and EPS. Ulta Beauty increased its stock repurchase plan for fiscal 2026 to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion, with plans to utilize the remaining $1.0 billion of its current authorization by year-end. This aggressive capital allocation strategy has been highlighted as a major driver of EPS growth.

3. The broader beauty market demonstrated resilience and continued growth, providing a favorable operating environment. The beauty category remained a strong performer within retail, with consumer spending holding up better than anticipated. The overall beauty and personal care market is projected to reach a retail value of $664.6 billion in 2026, marking a 6.6% increase. Ulta Beauty benefited from strong demand drivers such as high-teens comparable growth in fragrance, sustained strength in prestige beauty and haircare, and a robust loyalty program with nearly 47 million members.

4. Ulta's strategic initiatives, including e-commerce growth and disciplined cost management, contributed to market share gains. The company continued to execute its "Ulta Beauty Unleashed" strategy, leading to market share gains and solid sales growth. This included six consecutive quarters of double-digit e-commerce growth and effective leveraging of selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which decreased as a percentage of net sales from 26.6% to 26.4% in fiscal Q2 2026. The acquisition of Space NK also contributed to net sales growth during this period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 31.5% change in ULTA stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610182026Change
Stock Price ($)450.98592.9431.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,70812,9561.9%
Net Income Margin (%)9.4%9.3%-0.2%
P/E Multiple16.621.026.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)44431.9%
Cumulative Contribution31.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULTA31.5% 
Market (SPY)2.2%24.1%
Sector (XLY)-4.1%33.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 13.4% change in ULTA stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)331202610182026Change
Stock Price ($)522.71592.9413.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,39312,9564.5%
Net Income Margin (%)9.3%9.3%0.3%
P/E Multiple20.121.04.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)44433.2%
Cumulative Contribution13.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULTA13.4% 
Market (SPY)17.7%17.8%
Sector (XLY)3.4%28.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.4% change in ULTA stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)930202510182026Change
Stock Price ($)546.75592.948.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,65512,95611.2%
Net Income Margin (%)10.3%9.3%-9.4%
P/E Multiple20.521.02.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)45434.7%
Cumulative Contribution8.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULTA8.4% 
Market (SPY)15.5%20.7%
Sector (XLY)-5.6%27.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 48.4% change in ULTA stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202310182026Change
Stock Price ($)399.45592.9448.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)10,73012,95620.7%
Net Income Margin (%)11.8%9.3%-20.6%
P/E Multiple15.721.034.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)504315.5%
Cumulative Contribution48.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULTA48.4% 
Market (SPY)84.7%34.7%
Sector (XLY)42.9%38.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ULTA Return44%14%4%-11%39%1%112%
Peers Return57%-14%26%-18%-6%29%67%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ULTA Win Rate67%67%58%42%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate67%45%55%47%45%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ULTA Max Drawdown-13%-21%-33%-43%-28%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-47%-47%-45%-47%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI. See ULTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/16/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventULTAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-12.6%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven14.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven11 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-19.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.5%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven36 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-17.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven42 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.8%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven253 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-17.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven3 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-56.7%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven131.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven302 days140 days

Compare to EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI

In The Past

Ulta Beauty's stock fell -12.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventULTAS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.8%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven253 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-56.7%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven131.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven302 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-25.9%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven35.0%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven18 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-75.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven304.4%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven214 days1085 days

Compare to EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI

In The Past

Ulta Beauty's stock fell -12.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) operates as a leading specialty retailer of beauty products and services across the United States. The company offers a comprehensive range of beauty items, encompassing cosmetics, fragrances, skincare, haircare, and bath and body products, alongside professional salon styling tools. This extensive product assortment caters to a broad consumer market interested in beauty and personal care.

The company differentiates itself by providing both well-known third-party brands and its own private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection of cosmetics and skincare. In addition to product sales, Ulta Beauty offers professional salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services, within its retail locations. Ulta Beauty serves its customers through an expansive omnichannel network, consisting of over 1,300 physical stores across all 50 states, complemented by its e-commerce website, ulta.com, and mobile applications.

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  • Sephora, but with drug store brands and in-store salons.
  • The Home Depot of beauty.

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  • Cosmetics: A wide range of makeup products for face, eyes, and lips.
  • Fragrances: Perfumes and colognes from various brands.
  • Skincare Products: Products designed for facial and body skin care.
  • Haircare Products: Shampoos, conditioners, treatments, and styling products.
  • Bath and Body Products: Items for bathing, body cleansing, and moisturizing.
  • Salon Styling Tools: Professional and consumer-grade tools for hair styling.
  • Professional Hair Products: Hair products specifically formulated for professional use or professional-grade.
  • Private Label Products: Cosmetics, skincare, bath products, and gifts sold under Ulta Beauty's own brands.
  • Hair Services: Professional salon services including cuts, styling, and coloring.
  • Skin Services: Treatments and consultations for facial and body skin.
  • Makeup Services: Professional makeup application and artistic services.
  • Brow Services: Services for shaping, tinting, and maintaining eyebrows.
  • Nail Services: Manicures, pedicures, and other nail care treatments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) primarily sells its beauty products and services directly to individual consumers. The company operates as a retailer through its physical stores, e-commerce website (ulta.com), and mobile applications. Here are three categories of customers that Ulta Beauty serves:
  • Everyday Beauty Shoppers: This broad category includes individuals seeking a wide array of beauty products for their daily routines, ranging from cosmetics and skincare to haircare and fragrances. These customers appreciate Ulta's extensive selection of both mass-market and prestige brands, often looking for convenience and value.
  • Beauty Enthusiasts & Trend Followers: These customers are more deeply engaged with the beauty industry. They frequently seek out new product launches, professional-grade items, and trending brands. They are often influenced by social media and beauty content, making more frequent purchases and often exploring higher-end or specialized products.
  • Salon & Service-Oriented Customers: This category encompasses individuals who visit Ulta Beauty for its in-store salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services, as well as nail services. While they may also purchase products, their primary motivation for visiting is often to receive professional beauty treatments and consultations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • L'Oréal S.A. (LRLCY)
  • The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)
  • Coty Inc. (COTY)
  • e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)
  • Shiseido Company, Limited (SSCDF)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Kecia Steelman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Kecia Steelman was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Ulta Beauty in January 2025. She joined Ulta Beauty in July 2014 and has held various leadership roles, including Senior Vice President of Store Operations, Chief Store Operations Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and President and COO. Before her tenure at Ulta Beauty, Steelman served in leadership positions at Family Dollar Stores from 2009 to 2014 and Home Depot from 2005 to 2009. Her career in retail began in 1993 at Target Corporation, where she held roles in retail operations and merchandising. Steelman started her career as a single mom working an $8-an-hour job at Target.

Scott Settersten, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary

Scott Settersten has served as Ulta Beauty's Chief Financial Officer since March 2013. He joined the company in January 2005 as Director of Financial Reporting. Prior to joining Ulta Beauty, Settersten spent 15 years with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as a certified public accountant, working in assurance and risk management practices. He oversees core accounting, finance, tax, treasury, risk and control, financial planning and analysis (FP&A), and investor relations activities, in addition to procurement, loss prevention, and real estate functions. Settersten also serves on the board of directors as the audit committee chair for Kimble International Inc.

Amiee Bayer-Thomas, Chief Retail Officer

Amiee Bayer-Thomas was named Chief Retail Officer in January 2025. In this role, she is responsible for all aspects of Ulta Beauty's store and services operations, leading 1,500 store teams nationwide, and overseeing real estate growth and development, store design, and the company's loss prevention strategy. She joined Ulta Beauty in September 2016 and previously held positions including Chief Store Operations Officer and Chief Supply Chain Officer. Before Ulta Beauty, Bayer-Thomas held leadership roles at various retail companies, including JCPenney and The Limited.

Jodi Caro, General Counsel, Chief Risk & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary

Jodi Caro has served as Ulta Beauty's General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer since August 2015. She also holds the titles of Chief Risk & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary, and Chief Privacy Officer. Prior to joining Ulta Beauty, Caro was Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary, and Chief Compliance and Ethics Officer for Integrys Energy Group for over seven years. She also founded and operated her own law practice, providing general counsel and corporate services to a range of companies. Caro was a co-founder and General Counsel of Looking Glass Networks, a privately held telecommunications company. She played a significant role in negotiating Ulta Beauty's strategic partnership with Target.

Monica Arnaudo, Chief Merchandising Officer

Monica Arnaudo has served as Ulta Beauty's Chief Merchandising Officer since joining the company in 2017, initially as Senior Vice President of Merchandising. She possesses over three decades of experience in the beauty industry. Arnaudo has held prior leadership roles at retailers and beauty companies such as Sephora, L'Oréal, Smashbox Cosmetics, Bare Escentuals, Estee Lauder Companies, and Chanel. She has been instrumental in diversifying Ulta Beauty's product assortment. Monica Arnaudo announced her plans to retire in the spring of 2025.

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Key Risks to Ulta Beauty's Business

  1. Intensified Competition and Potential Market Share Erosion: Ulta Beauty operates within a highly competitive beauty retail landscape, facing significant pressure from direct rivals such as Sephora (which has expanded its reach through partnerships with Kohl's), other specialty beauty retailers, and a growing presence of online platforms like Amazon. The company reported a loss of market share in the beauty category for the first time in 2024, indicating a heightened competitive environment and potential challenges in maintaining its market position. This intense competition, coupled with a "beauty normalization" period (a slowdown from post-pandemic highs), puts continuous pressure on Ulta to innovate and retain customers.
  2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Shifting Consumer Spending: Ulta Beauty is susceptible to macroeconomic pressures, including persistent inflation and elevated interest rates, which can impact its core middle-income customers. These economic factors may lead consumers to reduce discretionary spending on beauty products or "trade down" to more affordable alternatives, directly affecting Ulta's sales, particularly in its prestige beauty segments. This represents a core external risk for the business, as fluctuating consumer sentiment and a more cautious consumer base could result in slower comparable sales growth.
  3. Operational Pressures and Margin Compression: The company faces several operational challenges that contribute to margin compression. Persistent retail theft, often referred to as "shrink," continues to be a notable drain on profitability, despite Ulta's investments in security measures. Additionally, as a business with a significant service component, Ulta is sensitive to rising labor costs and wage inflation for its skilled salon associates. Furthermore, the scheduled winding down of its "shop-in-shop" partnership with Target by August 2026 carries execution risk and will eliminate a royalty revenue stream, presenting a challenge that management aims to offset with other growth initiatives. Increased selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses due to strategic investments also contribute to pressure on operating margins.
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The rapid growth and integration of direct purchasing capabilities within major social media platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping), which allows consumers to discover and purchase beauty products directly through these apps, potentially bypassing traditional multi-brand retailers like Ulta Beauty for product transactions.

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Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates in several large addressable markets within the United States, offering a wide range of beauty products and salon services.

United States Beauty and Personal Care Products Market

The overall U.S. beauty and personal care products market was estimated at approximately $136.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand to about $195.83 billion by 2033. Other estimates place the market at $109.56 billion in 2025, expected to reach $196.33 billion by 2033. This broader market, including cosmetics, skincare, and haircare, was valued at around $107 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach $155 billion by 2033.

United States Cosmetics Market

The U.S. cosmetics market, which encompasses skincare, haircare, makeup, and fragrances, was valued at approximately $97.89 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $149.53 billion in 2033. Another report estimates the market at $67.54 billion in 2025, growing to $101.59 billion by 2032.

United States Skincare Market

The U.S. skincare market was valued at around $30.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $39.81 billion by 2030. Other data indicates the market was worth approximately $25.04 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about $36.56 billion by 2034. The skincare segment held the largest share of the U.S. beauty and personal care products market in 2023.

United States Haircare Market

In 2025, the U.S. haircare market was valued at approximately $23.21 billion, with projections showing growth to about $32.31 billion by 2034. Other figures show the market at $20.84 billion in 2024, expected to reach $22.05 billion in 2025. By 2035, the U.S. hair care product market is anticipated to reach $41.65 billion.

United States Fragrance Market

The U.S. fragrance market was valued at roughly $15.69 billion in 2024 and is estimated to attain $23.8 billion by 2033. Another report indicates a market size of $13.04 billion in 2024, projected to reach $17.18 billion by 2030.

United States Salon Services Market

The U.S. beauty salon market is projected to reach $95.99 billion by 2033, increasing from $53.19 billion in 2024. The hair salon market specifically in the U.S. and Canada was $57.4 billion in 2025, with an expectation to reach $91.1 billion in 2035. For hair salons in the U.S., the market size was $60.6 billion in 2024 and $60.0 billion in 2025.

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Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:

  1. New Store Expansion and International Growth: Ulta Beauty plans to continue its physical footprint expansion with 50 to 60 net new store openings projected for fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the company is embarking on international expansion, notably through a joint venture with Axo to launch and operate Ulta Beauty in Mexico in 2025. This is complemented by the acquisition of Space NK, which aids its presence in the UK market.
  2. Enhanced Product Assortment and Brand Launches: The company is focused on strengthening its product offerings by introducing new and exclusive brands and expanding strategic cross-category platforms. Recent successful brand launches, including Sol de Janeiro, Charlotte Tilbury, WYN by Serena Williams, and Kylie Jenner fragrance, have contributed to sales growth and new member acquisition. Ulta Beauty is also expanding its online marketplace with a wide array of established and emerging brands.
  3. Omnichannel Development and Digital Innovation: Ulta Beauty is investing in its digital platforms and "buy-anywhere and fulfill-anywhere" capabilities to enhance the customer experience. The company is increasing marketing investments across various digital platforms and recently announced an expanded strategic integration with TikTok Shop. Investments in AI and automation are also aimed at improving guest services and inventory management.
  4. Loyalty Program Enhancement and Customer Engagement: The Ultamate Rewards loyalty program is a significant driver of repeat business for Ulta Beauty. The company plans to enhance this program by offering more personalized rewards and experiences to its growing base of active members, which numbered 46.7 million as of fiscal 2025.

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Share Repurchases

  • In fiscal 2025, Ulta Beauty returned $890.5 million to shareholders through share repurchases.
  • As of January 31, 2026, $1.8 billion remained available under a $3.0 billion share repurchase program authorized in October 2024. This authorization replaced a previous program from March 2024.
  • For fiscal 2026, Ulta Beauty plans to return approximately $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • In fiscal 2025, Ulta Beauty strategically acquired luxury retailer Space NK.
  • Ulta Beauty established a joint venture with Grupo Axo to expand internationally, opening its first store in Mexico City in August 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • Ulta Beauty invested $434.8 million in capital expenditures during fiscal 2025. These investments focused on new stores, relocations, remodels, information technology systems, and supply chain optimization.
  • For fiscal 2026, projected capital expenditures are expected to range from $400 million to $450 million.
  • The primary focus for capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 includes opening 50 to 60 net new stores, optimizing the supply chain, and investing in information technology.

Better Bets vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Peer Outperformance in Other Specialty Retail

ULTA has outperformed 81% of its 16 Other Specialty Retail peers over 5Y. Other Specialty Retail ranks 22nd of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Other Specialty Retail constituents that ULTA has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
89%
of 18 industry peers · 11.1% return
3Y
100%
of 18 industry peers · 59.0% return
5Y
81%
of 16 industry peers · 45.9% return
No Other Specialty Retail peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten ULTA by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Other Specialty Retail is ULTA's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -19.9%82.6%91.0% CVSA 247% · PRDO 235% · LRN 148%
Homebuilding 18 -8.6%40.7%41.3% GRBK 181% · PHM 141% · TOL 135%
Specialty Stores 7 15.0%42.6%15.9% ASO 49% · DKS 31% · FIVE 16%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 11.2%50.2%13.8% RCL 234% · MAR 154% · HLT 143%
Home Furnishings 3 -5.6%52.0%1.3% SGI 44% · MHK -36%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -18.8%10.0%-1.9% HD -1% · LOW -2% · FND -64%
Automotive Retail 17 -13.1%10.3%-8.4% MUSA 233% · PAG 129% · ORLY 110%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -13.0%23.6%-13.2% HRB 134% · FTDR 84% · SCI 42%
Footwear 9 72.1%45.8%-14.0% DECK 40% · SHOO 18% · CROX -14%
Distributors 4 -9.2%-15.4%-15.9% ARMK 122% · GPC 22% · LKQ -54%
Restaurants 36 -5.2%-5.8%-18.6% EAT 322% · CAKE 200% · TXRH 102%
Household Appliances 17 -2.4%27.5%-35.8%
Apparel Retail 26 5.1%7.7%-38.4% ANF 290% · TJX 145% · ROST 128%
Leisure Facilities 12 10.8%-5.8%-41.3% LTH 149% · OSW 117% · PLNT -37%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 16.2%54.2%-42.4% BBY 1% · GME -42%
Leisure Products 14 -18.3%-17.0%-44.9% GOLF 78% · HAS 30% · MAT -14%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 39 -12.1%-13.5%-46.4% MOD 1144% · GTX 253% · BWA 54%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 1.3%15.1%-46.9% RL 256% · TPR 254% · KTB 74%
Broadline Retail 13 9.6%29.3%-48.2% EBAY 77% · AMZN 45% · OLLI 40%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -11.3%-25.9%-50.9% MCRI 86% · BYD 10% · RRR 9%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -73.4%-53.6%-77.7% GM 54% · TSLA 22% · F 9%
Other Specialty Retail ← 17 -34.0%-32.7%-77.8% ULTA 46% · TSCO -11% · BBWI -66%
Consumer Electronics 11 -27.6%-33.4%-78.3% GRMN 98% · SONO -47%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
Mkt Price592.50104.30154.1116.65112.8520.08108.57
Mkt Cap25.537.970.01.66.74.016.1
Rev LTM12,95615,049107,7053,7291,7627,21010,083
Op Inc LTM1,6321,6776,0233142011,2071,420
FCF LTM1,1491,3164,4562412801,0311,090
FCF 3Y Avg1,0301,1424,223190152833932
CFO LTM1,5681,7738,7233682971,2731,420
CFO 3Y Avg1,4231,8027,8902951691,0601,242

Growth & Margins

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
Rev Chg LTM11.2%5.0%2.0%1.1%31.2%-2.2%3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%-1.7%-0.1%-0.3%39.4%-1.1%-0.2%
Rev Chg Q8.9%6.3%5.3%0.2%35.5%-2.3%5.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%1.5%1.2%0.1%7.7%-0.5%1.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM2.3%47.0%11.0%-4.7%28.9%-4.4%6.7%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%2.7%9.9%-0.7%23.6%-0.4%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM12.6%11.1%5.6%8.4%11.4%16.7%11.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.4%9.7%5.5%8.3%11.8%17.1%10.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.6%1.1%0.2%3.4%0.9%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM12.1%11.8%8.1%9.9%16.9%17.7%11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.9%11.9%7.4%8.0%11.0%14.5%11.5%
FCF/Rev LTM8.9%8.7%4.1%6.5%15.9%14.3%8.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%7.6%3.9%5.1%9.8%11.4%8.1%

Valuation

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
Mkt Cap25.537.970.01.66.74.016.1
P/S2.02.50.70.43.80.61.3
P/Op Inc15.622.611.65.033.23.313.6
P/EBIT15.744.511.55.051.53.313.6
P/E21.0208.115.98.2112.05.218.5
P/CFO16.221.48.04.322.53.212.1
Total Yield4.8%1.8%9.2%12.1%0.9%23.3%7.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.3%3.0%0.0%0.0%4.0%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.3%3.3%7.3%16.9%2.4%18.8%6.3%
D/E0.10.20.31.00.11.20.3
Net D/E0.10.20.20.80.11.00.2

Returns

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
1M Rtn9.5%11.6%-2.6%5.4%17.0%15.4%10.6%
3M Rtn23.5%27.4%11.2%11.9%53.1%-2.8%17.7%
6M Rtn7.1%37.9%22.6%14.6%68.9%5.7%18.6%
12M Rtn11.1%5.0%76.5%13.0%-17.6%-20.9%8.0%
3Y Rtn58.9%-20.6%58.7%107.3%7.8%-28.5%33.3%
1M Excs Rtn8.7%10.8%-3.9%5.0%20.6%16.5%9.8%
3M Excs Rtn18.5%22.2%8.3%8.9%38.8%-4.0%13.7%
6M Excs Rtn-0.4%30.4%15.1%7.1%61.4%-1.8%11.1%
12M Excs Rtn-4.8%-3.7%61.6%-3.0%-30.6%-33.6%-4.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-23.5%-96.3%-17.1%42.1%-67.2%-104.2%-45.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce12,39311,29611,20710,209 
Cosmetics    3,711
Fragrance    1,208
Haircare    1,726
Other    259
Services    259
Skincare    1,467
Total12,39311,29611,20710,2098,631


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2026202520242023
Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce1,1531,2011,2911,242
Total1,1531,2011,2911,242


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$592.94 
Market Cap ($ Bil)25.5 
First Trading Date10/25/2007 
Distance from 52W High-16.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$545.75$554.17
DMA Trendupindeterminate
Distance from DMA8.6%7.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility33.4%35.1%
Downside Capture46.9666.39
Upside Capture144.0466.81
Correlation (S&P 500)30.6%20.9%
ULTA Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.401.330.760.490.560.81
Up Beta2.551.661.100.680.280.94
Down Beta1.11-0.58-0.450.100.430.71
Up Capture166%160%134%42%54%46%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days11193464120371
Down Capture57%121%31%62%85%93%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days11233062132380

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULTA
ULTA10.2%35.1%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLY)-3.6%19.2%-0.3227.1%
Equity (SPY)15.8%12.7%0.8619.9%
Gold (GLD)-1.4%29.4%-0.057.6%
Commodities (DBC)52.4%20.7%1.92-16.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%13.7%0.0923.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-26.5%43.6%-0.597.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULTA
ULTA9.4%34.8%0.32-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.1%24.1%0.1746.3%
Equity (SPY)13.2%17.1%0.5943.2%
Gold (GLD)18.4%18.9%0.792.9%
Commodities (DBC)9.9%19.5%0.392.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.6%18.8%-0.0234.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.6%51.8%0.3418.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULTA
ULTA9.4%38.6%0.35-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.0%22.2%0.4950.7%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7248.3%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.4%0.611.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%18.1%0.3714.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2142.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.1%66.2%1.0313.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152026-0.0%
Average Daily Volume0.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity43.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.7%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/30/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/27/2026-4.2%3.1%1.7%
6/2/2026-4.8%-3.4%-6.8%
3/12/2026-14.2%-14.5%-15.7%
12/4/202512.7%11.1%22.7%
8/28/2025-7.1%-3.0%4.3%
5/29/202511.8%10.7%10.9%
3/13/202513.7%8.4%14.9%
12/5/20249.0%7.9%9.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91213
# Negative151211
Median Positive10.8%6.2%5.9%
Median Negative-4.0%-3.2%-5.7%
Max Positive13.7%15.0%22.7%
Max Negative-14.2%-14.5%-23.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/27/2026-4.2%3.1%1.7%
6/2/2026-4.8%-3.4%-6.8%
3/12/2026-14.2%-14.5%-15.7%
12/4/202512.7%11.1%22.7%
8/28/2025-7.1%-3.0%4.3%
5/29/202511.8%10.7%10.9%
3/13/202513.7%8.4%14.9%
12/5/20249.0%7.9%9.0%
8/29/2024-4.0%0.0%5.9%
5/30/20242.5%-0.2%-0.3%
3/14/2024-5.2%-7.4%-23.4%
11/30/202310.8%15.0%14.2%
8/24/2023-3.7%-1.8%-5.8%
5/25/2023-13.4%-12.9%-4.7%
3/9/20230.2%-1.2%1.8%
12/1/2022-0.3%1.9%-0.2%
8/25/2022-1.9%1.2%-7.5%
5/26/202212.5%7.0%2.1%
3/10/2022-2.9%2.1%5.8%
12/2/2021-1.3%5.4%7.7%
8/25/2021-0.3%-0.6%-2.0%
5/27/20215.2%-0.5%4.5%
3/11/2021-8.4%-8.1%-5.7%
12/3/2020-3.5%-6.0%-3.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91213
# Negative151211
Median Positive10.8%6.2%5.9%
Median Negative-4.0%-3.2%-5.7%
Max Positive13.7%15.0%22.7%
Max Negative-14.2%-14.5%-23.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
07/31/202608/27/202610-Q
04/30/202606/02/202610-Q
01/31/202603/26/202610-K
10/31/202512/04/202510-Q
07/31/202508/28/202510-Q
04/30/202505/29/202510-Q
01/31/202503/27/202510-K
10/31/202412/05/202410-Q
07/31/202408/29/202410-Q
04/30/202405/30/202410-Q
01/31/202403/26/202410-K
10/31/202311/30/202310-Q
07/31/202308/24/202310-Q
04/30/202305/25/202310-Q
01/31/202303/24/202310-K
10/31/202212/01/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
07/31/202608/27/202610-Q
04/30/202606/02/202610-Q
01/31/202603/26/202610-K
10/31/202512/04/202510-Q
07/31/202508/28/202510-Q
04/30/202505/29/202510-Q
01/31/202503/27/202510-K
10/31/202412/05/202410-Q
07/31/202408/29/202410-Q
04/30/202405/30/202410-Q
01/31/202403/26/202410-K
10/31/202311/30/202310-Q
07/31/202308/24/202310-Q
04/30/202305/25/202310-Q
01/31/202303/24/202310-K
10/31/202212/01/202210-Q
07/31/202208/25/202210-Q
04/30/202205/26/202210-Q
01/31/202203/25/202210-K
10/31/202112/02/202110-Q
07/31/202108/25/202110-Q
04/30/202105/27/202110-Q
01/31/202103/26/202110-K
10/31/202012/03/202010-Q
07/31/202008/27/202010-Q
04/30/202005/28/202010-Q
01/31/202003/27/202010-K
10/31/201912/05/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/28/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable sales growthReported3.2%3.45%3.7% 0.4%RaisedGuidance: 3.0% for 2026
2026 Net sales growthReported6.7%6.95%7.2% 0.4%RaisedGuidance: 6.5% for 2026
2026 Operating income growthReported8.3%8.8%9.3% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 7.75% for 2026
2026 Diluted earnings per shareReported28.728.85290.9% RaisedGuidance: 28.58 for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 1.00 Bil    


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 6/2/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable sales growthReported2.5%3.0%3.5% 0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 3.0% for 2026
2026 Net sales growthReported6.0%6.5%7.0% 0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 6.5% for 2026
2026 Operating income growthReported6.5%7.75%9.0% 0.2%RaisedGuidance: 7.5% for 2026
2026 Diluted earnings per shareReported28.3628.5828.81.0% RaisedGuidance: 28.3 for 2026
2026 Capital expendituresReported400.00 Mil425.00 Mil450.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 425.00 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable sales growthReported2.5%3.0%3.5%   
2026 Net sales growthReported6.0%6.5%7.0% 2.0%Higher NewActual: 4.55% for 2025
2026 Operating income growthReported6.0%7.5%9.0%   
2026 Diluted earnings per shareReported28.0528.328.5511.6% Higher NewActual: 25.35 for 2025
2026 Capital expendituresReported400.00 Mil425.00 Mil450.00 Mil   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Comparable salesReported0.040.050.05 1.6%RaisedGuidance: 0.03 for 2025
2025 Net salesReported 12.30 Bil 2.1% RaisedGuidance: 12.05 Bil for 2025
2025 Operating marginReported12.3%12.35%12.4% 0.4%RaisedGuidance: 11.95% for 2025
2025 Diluted earnings per shareReported25.225.3525.55.3% RaisedGuidance: 24.08 for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/21/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Steelman, KeciaPresident and CEODirectSell9212026545.882,0001,091,76622,102,249Form
2Nagler, Lorna DirectSell9142026537.31600322,3883,851,457Form
3Mrkonic, George R JR DirectSell6162026475.84383182,2471,143,919Form
4Mrkonic, George R JR DirectSell4072026539.29452243,7591,285,128Form
5Smith, Mike C DirectSell9082025528.43500264,2151,195,837Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Steelman, KeciaPresident and CEODirectSell9212026545.882,0001,091,76622,102,249Form
2Nagler, Lorna DirectSell9142026537.31600322,3883,851,457Form
3Mrkonic, George R JR DirectSell6162026475.84383182,2471,143,919Form
4Mrkonic, George R JR DirectSell4072026539.29452243,7591,285,128Form
5Smith, Mike C DirectSell9082025528.43500264,2151,195,837Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 19, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
FFG Partners, LLC$9.6 Mil3.8%35ADD +12.1%13F
Coerente Capital Management$20.0 Mil3.7%47Hold13F
Cartenna Capital, LP$84.9 Mil3.7%41New13F
Rempart Asset Management Inc.$15.5 Mil3.3%36TRIM -10.4%13F
Bender Robert & Associates$11.0 Mil2.6%45Hold13F
Boothe Investment Group, Inc.$7.0 Mil2.3%40TRIM -35.4%13F
Stanley Capital Management, LLC$12.4 Mil2.1%40Hold13F
Broad Bay Capital Management, LP$16.8 Mil1.7%24New13F
Smead Capital Management, Inc.$65.3 Mil1.4%32TRIM -13.0%13F
Sanders Capital, LLC$997.4 Mil1.2%44ADD +51.0%13F
Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP$12.7 Mil1.1%39TRIM -25.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Cartenna Capital, LP$84.9 Mil3.7%41New13F
Broad Bay Capital Management, LP$16.8 Mil1.7%24New13F
Sanders Capital, LLC$997.4 Mil1.2%44ADD +51.0%13F
FFG Partners, LLC$9.6 Mil3.8%35ADD +12.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Agave Capital Management Ltd$28.5 Mil4.8%23ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Boothe Investment Group, Inc.$7.0 Mil2.3%40TRIM -35.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP$12.7 Mil1.1%39TRIM -25.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Smead Capital Management, Inc.$65.3 Mil1.4%32TRIM -13.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Rempart Asset Management Inc.$15.5 Mil3.3%36TRIM -10.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Sanders Capital, LLC$997.4 Mil1.2%44ADD +51.0%13F
Cartenna Capital, LP$84.9 Mil3.7%41New13F
Smead Capital Management, Inc.$65.3 Mil1.4%32TRIM -13.0%13F
Coerente Capital Management$20.0 Mil3.7%47Hold13F
Broad Bay Capital Management, LP$16.8 Mil1.7%24New13F
Rempart Asset Management Inc.$15.5 Mil3.3%36TRIM -10.4%13F
Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP$12.7 Mil1.1%39TRIM -25.1%13F
Stanley Capital Management, LLC$12.4 Mil2.1%40Hold13F
Bender Robert & Associates$11.0 Mil2.6%45Hold13F
FFG Partners, LLC$9.6 Mil3.8%35ADD +12.1%13F
Boothe Investment Group, Inc.$7.0 Mil2.3%40TRIM -35.4%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/18/2026