Tearsheet

Target (TGT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $98.7 | Market Cap: $44.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Target (TGT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $98.7
Market Cap: $44.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
  Key risks
TGT key risks include [1] a failure to adapt its merchandise and fulfillment strategies to evolving consumer preferences and [2] managing significant inventory losses from damage, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%
6 Key risks
TGT key risks include [1] a failure to adapt its merchandise and fulfillment strategies to evolving consumer preferences and [2] managing significant inventory losses from damage, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TGT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Target's (TGT) stock moved by approximately 4% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Innovation in AI-Powered Shopping

Target announced on November 20, 2025, the launch of a pioneering conversational and curated shopping experience integrated with ChatGPT. This strategic move into advanced AI technology likely signaled to investors a strong commitment to enhancing the digital customer experience and driving future growth, contributing to positive stock momentum. 2. Positive Market Reaction to Strategic Initiatives

Despite a reported miss in Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS), which was announced on November 20, 2025, the market demonstrated a rebound in Target's stock. This suggests that investors may have found other aspects of the earnings report or the company's broader strategic initiatives and long-term vision, including its AI integrations, to be positive or less negative than initially feared.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TGT Return40%33%-34%-1%-2%-25%-10%
Peers Return34%32%-18%32%42%4%183%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TGT Win Rate50%67%42%50%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate65%67%42%67%68%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TGT Max Drawdown-29%-3%-39%-28%-12%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-9%-27%-4%-3%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, AMZN, COST, HD, KR. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTGTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven132 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven243 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven176.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,508 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST


In The Past

Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Target (TGT)

Better Bets than Target (TGT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
14.0%14.0%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.5%7.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
14.0%14.0%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.5%7.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Target

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TGTWMTAMZNCOSTHDKRMedian
NameTarget Walmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Home Dep.Kroger  
Mkt Price98.60115.66221.27862.65356.7563.81168.47
Mkt Cap40.7821.82,353.6383.0354.344.2368.6
Rev LTM105,242703,061670,038275,235166,189147,225220,712
Op Inc LTM5,20428,97676,19010,38321,5361,55615,960
FCF LTM3,00915,26313,4817,83713,9272,26910,659
FCF 3Y Avg3,73214,98421,6777,07016,1062,25111,027
CFO LTM6,77440,977121,13713,33517,6496,06215,492
CFO 3Y Avg7,64637,58896,97711,91419,5186,13315,716

Growth & Margins

TGTWMTAMZNCOSTHDKRMedian
NameTarget Walmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Home Dep.Kroger  
Rev Chg LTM-2.2%4.3%10.9%8.2%7.5%-1.8%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.1%5.4%11.3%6.6%1.9%0.2%3.7%
Rev Chg Q-1.6%5.8%13.3%8.1%2.8%0.7%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%1.4%3.0%2.4%0.7%0.2%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM4.9%4.1%11.4%3.8%13.0%1.1%4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.1%4.1%7.9%3.6%13.7%1.9%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.1%0.3%0.0%-0.1%-1.6%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM6.4%5.8%18.1%4.8%10.6%4.1%6.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%5.6%15.8%4.6%12.4%4.1%6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.9%2.2%2.0%2.8%8.4%1.5%2.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%2.2%3.5%2.7%10.2%1.5%3.1%

Valuation

TGTWMTAMZNCOSTHDKRMedian
NameTarget Walmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Home Dep.Kroger  
Mkt Cap40.7821.82,353.6383.0354.344.2368.6
P/S0.41.23.51.52.10.31.3
P/EBIT--27.437.516.4-27.4
P/E10.835.933.150.724.356.034.5
P/CFO6.020.119.330.820.17.319.7
Total Yield14.3%3.7%3.0%2.2%6.7%3.8%3.7%
Dividend Yield5.0%0.9%0.0%0.3%2.6%2.0%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--1.1%2.1%4.5%-2.1%
D/E--0.10.00.2-0.1
Net D/E--0.0-0.00.2-0.0

Returns

TGTWMTAMZNCOSTHDKRMedian
NameTarget Walmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Home Dep.Kroger  
1M Rtn11.4%12.6%-5.0%-5.5%0.3%-3.5%-1.6%
3M Rtn12.3%11.1%-4.5%-10.3%-13.9%-4.2%-4.3%
6M Rtn6.1%22.2%4.1%-11.3%4.1%-1.6%4.1%
12M Rtn-21.8%22.4%-4.3%-11.7%-10.5%6.4%-7.4%
3Y Rtn-25.3%152.1%151.8%94.8%19.1%53.9%74.4%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%11.8%-5.7%-6.2%-0.4%-4.2%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn10.3%10.5%-5.7%-10.6%-15.3%-4.1%-4.9%
6M Excs Rtn-6.3%9.8%-8.3%-23.6%-8.3%-14.0%-8.3%
12M Excs Rtn-34.5%12.8%-13.8%-23.4%-23.4%-6.2%-18.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-95.5%74.7%75.9%15.9%-51.0%-22.4%-3.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Food & beverage23,89922,91820,30618,13515,039
Household essentials18,746    
Home furnishings & décor17,76019,46320,25518,23114,430
Apparel & accessories16,48517,64617,93114,77214,304
Hardlines16,16217,73918,61416,62612,595
Beauty12,538    
Credit card profit sharing667734710666680
Advertising revenue522    
Other4201,045921670448
Other merchandise sales213    
Beauty & household essentials 29,57527,26824,46120,616
Total107,412109,120106,00593,56178,112


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,651,031
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202514.2%
Average Daily Volume9,882,706
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.99
Basic Shares Quantity453,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/19/2025-2.8%-2.2% 
8/20/2025-6.3%-8.8%-15.1%
5/21/2025-5.2%-2.2%-2.6%
3/4/2025-3.0%-5.7%-13.5%
11/20/2024-21.4%-18.3%-15.8%
8/21/202411.2%10.8%9.3%
5/22/2024-8.0%-5.2%-6.2%
3/5/202412.0%11.7%16.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1078
# Negative141716
Median Positive8.0%10.8%10.4%
Median Negative-5.0%-5.2%-12.2%
Max Positive17.8%18.1%27.4%
Max Negative-24.9%-30.3%-33.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251126202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025829202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025530202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025312202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241127202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024830202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024531202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024313202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231122202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023825202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023526202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023308202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221123202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022826202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022527202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022309202210-K 1/29/2022