Target (TGT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $98.7 | Market Cap: $44.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Target (TGT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $98.7Market Cap: $44.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil | Key risksTGT key risks include [1] a failure to adapt its merchandise and fulfillment strategies to evolving consumer preferences and [2] managing significant inventory losses from damage, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6% |
| Key risksTGT key risks include [1] a failure to adapt its merchandise and fulfillment strategies to evolving consumer preferences and [2] managing significant inventory losses from damage, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TGT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Target's (TGT) stock moved by approximately 4% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Innovation in AI-Powered Shopping
Target announced on November 20, 2025, the launch of a pioneering conversational and curated shopping experience integrated with ChatGPT. This strategic move into advanced AI technology likely signaled to investors a strong commitment to enhancing the digital customer experience and driving future growth, contributing to positive stock momentum.
2. Positive Market Reaction to Strategic Initiatives
Despite a reported miss in Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS), which was announced on November 20, 2025, the market demonstrated a rebound in Target's stock. This suggests that investors may have found other aspects of the earnings report or the company's broader strategic initiatives and long-term vision, including its AI integrations, to be positive or less negative than initially feared.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TGT Return | 40% | 33% | -34% | -1% | -2% | -25% | -10% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 32% | -18% | 32% | 42% | 4% | 183% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TGT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 68% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TGT Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -39% | -28% | -12% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -9% | -27% | -4% | -3% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, AMZN, COST, HD, KR. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TGT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,508 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST
In The Past
Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.0% | 14.0% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.5% | 7.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.0% | 14.0% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.5% | 7.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Target
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 168.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 368.6 |
| Rev LTM | 220,712 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,960 |
| FCF LTM | 10,659 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,027 |
| CFO LTM | 15,492 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,716 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 368.6 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 27.4 |
| P/E | 34.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & beverage | 23,899 | 22,918 | 20,306 | 18,135 | 15,039 |
| Household essentials | 18,746 | ||||
| Home furnishings & décor | 17,760 | 19,463 | 20,255 | 18,231 | 14,430 |
| Apparel & accessories | 16,485 | 17,646 | 17,931 | 14,772 | 14,304 |
| Hardlines | 16,162 | 17,739 | 18,614 | 16,626 | 12,595 |
| Beauty | 12,538 | ||||
| Credit card profit sharing | 667 | 734 | 710 | 666 | 680 |
| Advertising revenue | 522 | ||||
| Other | 420 | 1,045 | 921 | 670 | 448 |
| Other merchandise sales | 213 | ||||
| Beauty & household essentials | 29,575 | 27,268 | 24,461 | 20,616 | |
| Total | 107,412 | 109,120 | 106,005 | 93,561 | 78,112 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | -2.8% | -2.2% | |
| 8/20/2025 | -6.3% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | -5.2% | -2.2% | -2.6% |
| 3/4/2025 | -3.0% | -5.7% | -13.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | -21.4% | -18.3% | -15.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | -8.0% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
| 3/5/2024 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 14 | 17 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 8.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -5.2% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -30.3% | -33.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11262025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3122025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3132024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11222023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3082023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3092022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
