Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $102.3 | Market Cap: $36.9 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Personal Care Products
Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $102.3Market Cap: $36.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Personal Care Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) stock experienced significant volatility rather than a consistent 12.1% increase between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. Several key factors influenced its movement during this period.
1. Weak Q4 2025 Earnings and Disappointing Outlook.
Estee Lauder's shares declined by 5.2% on August 20, 2025, following the release of its Q4 2025 earnings report. The company reported an 11.9% revenue decline to $3.41 billion and an 86% plunge in adjusted earnings per share to $0.09. This performance, despite surpassing low analyst expectations, represented substantial setbacks from the previous year. The outlook for the upcoming year was also disappointing, with management projecting tepid revenue growth of 0% to 3% in constant currency terms for fiscal 2026.
2. Subdued Chinese Consumer Demand and Travel Retail Weakness.
A major drag on Estee Lauder's performance was the continued subdued Chinese consumer demand and weakness in the global travel retail business. The company experienced a 24% revenue drop in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa due to reduced travel activity and fewer Chinese tourists. Sales in the Americas and Asia/Pacific also saw declines. The Q4 earnings call highlighted expectations for a stronger double-digit sales decline in global travel retail compared to Q3, impacted by shifts towards more profitable duty-free models in Korea and mainland China, as well as weak consumer sentiment in China.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EL Return | 30% | 40% | -32% | -40% | -48% | 35% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 15% | -7% | -9% | -3% | 8% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EL Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 48% | 35% | 47% | 57% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EL Max Drawdown | -30% | -11% | -48% | -57% | -56% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -8% | -19% | -19% | -16% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, PG, CL, EL, KVUE. See EL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 255.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 1480 days |
Compare to JNJ, PG, CL, EL, KVUE
In The Past
Estee Lauder Companies's stock fell -71.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -71.9% loss requires a 255.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Estee Lauder Companies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin Care | 7,908 | 8,249 | 9,886 | 9,484 | 7,382 |
| Makeup | 4,470 | 4,532 | 4,667 | 4,203 | 4,794 |
| Fragrance | 2,487 | 2,451 | 2,508 | 1,926 | 1,563 |
| Hair Care | 629 | 652 | 631 | 571 | 515 |
| Other | 115 | 53 | 49 | 45 | 40 |
| Returns associated with restructuring and other activities | -1 | -27 | -4 | -14 | |
| Total | 15,608 | 15,910 | 17,737 | 16,215 | 14,294 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin Care | 735 | 1,277 | 2,753 | 3,036 | 2,125 |
| Fragrance | 265 | 370 | 456 | 215 | 17 |
| Makeup | 93 | -21 | 133 | -384 | -1,438 |
| Other | 53 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 4 |
| Hair Care | -52 | -36 | -28 | -19 | -19 |
| Charges associated with restructuring and other activities | -124 | -85 | -144 | -228 | -83 |
| Total | 970 | 1,509 | 3,170 | 2,618 | 606 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8202025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8192024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8182023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8242022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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