Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
Market Price (9/14/2026): $97.08 | Market Cap: $35.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Personal Care Products
Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
Market Price (9/14/2026): $97.08Market Cap: $35.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Personal Care Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 194x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% Key risksEL key risks include [1] its substantial exposure to the struggling travel retail sector and slowing consumer demand in key Asia-Pacific markets. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 194x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksEL key risks include [1] its substantial exposure to the struggling travel retail sector and slowing consumer demand in key Asia-Pacific markets. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Estee Lauder Companies (EL) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Estee Lauder exceeded expectations with its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, demonstrating a strong return to growth and profitability. The company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.32 by 21.9%. Quarterly revenue also rose to $3.63 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.55 billion by 2.25%. This strong performance, announced on August 19, 2026, directly contributed to a 15.57% jump in the stock in premarket trading.
2. The company achieved significant operating margin expansion and a return to organic sales growth, driven by its "Beauty Reimagined" strategy and "Profit Recovery and Growth Plan" (PRGP). For the full fiscal year 2026, organic sales grew by 3%, marking a turnaround after a challenging period. The gross margin expanded by 150 basis points to 75.5% for the year, and the operating margin notably increased by 320 basis points to 11.2%. Fiscal Q4 2026 saw organic sales growth accelerate to 5%, the strongest quarterly performance of the year.
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Estee Lauder Companies (EL) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Estee Lauder exceeded expectations with its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, demonstrating a strong return to growth and profitability. The company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.32 by 21.9%. Quarterly revenue also rose to $3.63 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.55 billion by 2.25%. This strong performance, announced on August 19, 2026, directly contributed to a 15.57% jump in the stock in premarket trading.
2. The company achieved significant operating margin expansion and a return to organic sales growth, driven by its "Beauty Reimagined" strategy and "Profit Recovery and Growth Plan" (PRGP). For the full fiscal year 2026, organic sales grew by 3%, marking a turnaround after a challenging period. The gross margin expanded by 150 basis points to 75.5% for the year, and the operating margin notably increased by 320 basis points to 11.2%. Fiscal Q4 2026 saw organic sales growth accelerate to 5%, the strongest quarterly performance of the year.
3. Management provided an optimistic fiscal 2027 outlook, projecting continued acceleration in organic sales growth and further margin improvement. For fiscal 2027, Estee Lauder anticipates organic sales growth of 3% to 5% and an increased operating margin outlook of 12.7% to 13.5%. The projected adjusted EPS for fiscal 2027 is between $3.10 and $3.35, a significant increase from $2.51 in fiscal 2026.
4. Strong performance across key product categories and a recovery in crucial geographic regions bolstered investor confidence. Fragrance experienced 10% organic growth for fiscal 2026, while skincare grew 4%, and makeup trends stabilized. Jo Malone London and TOM FORD joined the company's "billion-dollar brand club." Geographically, Mainland China recorded 9% organic sales growth, and travel retail returned to positive sales in June-July 2026, marking its first positive turn in three years. North America also saw a return to organic sales growth in fiscal Q4 2026.
5. Analyst sentiment turned increasingly positive with several upgrades and raised price targets following the strong earnings report. On September 1, 2026, CICC upgraded Estee Lauder to Outperform from Market Perform, noting that the company's turnaround had moved beyond restructuring-led margin recovery to broader sales and earnings growth. Other firms, such as Telsey Advisory and Deutsche Bank, also raised their price targets for EL around this period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.6% change in EL stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.65 | 97.12 | 9.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,833 | 15,049 | 1.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 2.3 | 8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 363 | 363 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | 9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | 30.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 0.6% | 31.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.6% change in EL stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.68 | 97.12 | -10.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,671 | 15,049 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.7 | 2.3 | -12.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 362 | 363 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | -10.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | -6.8% | 30.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.8% change in EL stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.10 | 97.12 | 7.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,326 | 15,049 | 5.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 361 | 363 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | 7.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | 36.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.4% | 26.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.1% change in EL stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 151.93 | 97.12 | -36.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,910 | 15,049 | -5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 1.2% | -80.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 54.1 | 193.8 | 258.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 358 | 363 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | -36.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.7% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 23.5% | 33.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EL Return | 40% | -32% | -40% | -48% | 42% | -7% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 14% | 38% | -10% | -17% | 2% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EL Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 52% | 56% | 45% | 35% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EL Max Drawdown | -13% | -49% | -62% | -60% | -41% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -31% | -27% | -34% | -42% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COTY, PG, ELF, ULTA, KVUE. See EL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 431 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Estee Lauder Companies's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | EL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Estee Lauder Companies's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a prominent global player in the beauty industry, specializing in the manufacturing, marketing, and sale of prestige skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. It operates a vast portfolio of highly recognized and influential brands that cater to a wide array of consumer preferences across these four core categories.
The company's extensive brand family includes flagship names like Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, and The Ordinary, in addition to licensed brands such as Tommy Hilfiger and Michael Kors. Its product offerings are comprehensive, ranging from advanced moisturizers, serums, cleansers, and foundations to lipsticks, mascaras, luxury perfumes, colognes, shampoos, conditioners, and various beauty tools and accessories.
Estée Lauder primarily targets a global customer base seeking high-quality, premium beauty solutions. Its products are distributed through a robust multi-channel strategy, including upscale department stores, specialty-multi retailers, luxury perfumeries, salons and spas, freestanding brand stores, and a significant online presence via its own brand websites, authorized retailer sites, and third-party e-commerce platforms. The company also maintains a strong footprint in travel retail, reaching international customers through airport and duty-free shops.
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1. The LVMH of beauty products.
2. The Procter & Gamble for premium skincare and makeup brands.
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- Skin Care Products: Estee Lauder offers a comprehensive range of skin care products including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, masks, and sun care.
- Makeup Products: The company provides various makeup items such as lipsticks, foundations, mascaras, eyeshadows, and nail polishes, along with related tools.
- Fragrance Products: Estee Lauder manufactures and sells a diverse collection of fragrances, including eau de parfums, colognes, lotions, and perfumed soaps and candles.
- Hair Care Products: The company offers hair care solutions like shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatments, and hair color products.
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The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) primarily sells its products to other businesses, which then retail them to individual consumers. Its major customers are the large retail companies that operate department stores, specialty-multi retailers, and online platforms.
Based on its described distribution channels, key customers include:
- Macy's Inc. (Symbol: M) - Operates department stores such as Macy's and Bloomingdale's, which are significant outlets for Estee Lauder's prestige beauty brands.
- Nordstrom Inc. (Symbol: JWN) - A leading fashion specialty retailer that also serves as a major distribution partner for Estee Lauder's products in its department stores.
- Ulta Beauty Inc. (Symbol: ULTA) - A prominent specialty-multi beauty retailer that offers a wide range of beauty products, including many of Estee Lauder's brands, through its physical stores and e-commerce platform.
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Stéphane de La Faverie, President and Chief Executive Officer
Stéphane de La Faverie assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of The Estée Lauder Companies in January 2025. He also serves as a member of the company's Board of Directors. With over 25 years of experience in prestige beauty, he joined ELC in 2011. Prior to his current role, he was Executive Group President, overseeing a portfolio of brands including Estée Lauder, AERIN Beauty, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, KILIAN PARIS, Editions de Parfums Frederic Malle, Darphin Paris, LAB Series, DECIEM (The Ordinary, NIOD, and Avestan), Too Faced, Smashbox, and GLAMGLOW. From 2020-2022, he served as Group President, The Estée Lauder Companies, and Global Brand President, Estée Lauder and AERIN Beauty. Before joining ELC, Mr. de La Faverie began his career with Lancôme Global in Paris and held roles with the Luxury Products Group, North America, overseeing Lancôme, Giorgio Armani, Ralph Lauren, and Biotherm beauty brands.
Akhil Shrivastava, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Akhil Shrivastava was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Estée Lauder Companies, effective November 1, 2024. He is responsible for the company's Global Finance, Accounting, Tax, Treasury, Investor Relations, and New Business Development organizations. Mr. Shrivastava joined ELC in 2015 and has held various senior finance positions within the company, including Senior Vice President, Corporate Controller, and Senior Vice President, Treasurer. Before his tenure at Estée Lauder, he spent 18 years at Procter & Gamble, serving in various finance and leadership roles across Asia, North America, and global businesses, including Finance Director for Gillette North America. He holds a Master's Degree in Finance and Control from Delhi University.
Jane Hertzmark Hudis, Executive Vice President, Chief Brand Officer
Jane Hertzmark Hudis serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Brand Officer at The Estée Lauder Companies. She has held an Executive Group President position at the company since 2020.
Rashida La Lande, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Rashida La Lande is the Executive Vice President and General Counsel at The Estée Lauder Companies, where she oversees the global Legal organization. In this capacity, she acts as a strategic advisor to ELC's leadership and Board of Directors on global legal issues and is responsible for legal strategy, practices, and policies, as well as the company's Global Privacy Office and Global Security Team. Ms. La Lande joined ELC in August 2024.
Meridith Webster, Chief Communications and Public Affairs Officer
Meridith Webster is the Chief Communications and Public Affairs Officer at The Estée Lauder Companies, a position she assumed in 2021. In her role, she leads the company's communications and public affairs strategies globally, working to advance and protect its business interests and corporate reputation.
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Weak Demand in China and Asia Travel Retail
A primary risk for Estee Lauder is the persistent weakness in demand within the prestige beauty market in mainland China and the broader Asia travel retail sector. This softness has been a significant driver of declining sales and financial pressures in recent years, particularly affecting the company's crucial skincare category. The region has experienced weak consumer sentiment, and disruptions in travel retail have disproportionately impacted Estee Lauder's performance, leading to substantial earnings pressure.
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Cyclical Nature of Premium Products and Macroeconomic Headwinds
The company's portfolio of premium and luxury beauty products makes it particularly susceptible to global macroeconomic challenges, including inflation, economic downturns, and reduced consumer discretionary spending. Unlike more essential consumer staples, demand for prestige beauty items can be highly cyclical, meaning that in turbulent economic environments, consumers may scale back on such purchases. This inherent market risk is reflected in the stock's higher beta compared to other consumer staple businesses.
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Intense Competition and Evolving Consumer Preferences
Estee Lauder operates in a highly competitive beauty industry, facing pressure from both established global players and rapidly emerging indie brands. A key challenge lies in adapting to evolving consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, and effectively leveraging digital engagement platforms. The company has acknowledged challenges in appealing to consumers under 40 and missing opportunities on social media platforms like TikTok, which play a pivotal role in the prestige beauty industry.
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The rapid proliferation and increasing market share of highly agile, digitally-native, and influencer-led beauty brands that leverage direct-to-consumer (DTC) models and social media for marketing and sales. These new entrants often circumvent the traditional retail and advertising channels, such as department stores and large-scale print/TV campaigns, where Estee Lauder's heritage brands have historically thrived. These brands can quickly capture specific market segments by offering perceived authenticity, niche specialization, and often more accessible price points, directly challenging the market dominance, customer loyalty, and traditional brand-building efficacy of established prestige beauty conglomerates like Estee Lauder. This shift represents a fundamental change in how successful brands are created, distributed, and connect with consumers, making traditional infrastructure less critical and potentially less effective for capturing emerging consumer segments.
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Skincare
The global skincare market size was valued at USD 122.11 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 227.13 billion by 2034, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.32% from 2026 to 2034. Another source estimates the global skincare market at USD 159.86 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 231.31 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 5.42%. The global skincare products market size was estimated at USD 155.84 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 202.77 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2026 to 2033. Asia Pacific dominated the skincare market with a 51.46% market share in 2025, with its market valuation at USD 62.84 billion in 2025. The U.S. skincare market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 30.42 billion by 2032.Makeup
The global makeup market size was valued at USD 45.95 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 81.55 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.72% during the forecast period. Another report states the global makeup market will grow from USD 44.97 billion in 2025 to USD 64.81 billion by 2031 at a 6.28% CAGR. Asia Pacific dominated the makeup market with a market share of 46.87% in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 22.65 billion in 2026. The U.S. makeup market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 12.77 billion by 2032.Fragrance
The global fragrance market size was estimated at USD 58.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 89.41 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2026 to 2033. Other estimates for the global perfume market include USD 53.04 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 87.17 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.73%, and USD 55.53 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 88.35 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 5.3%. North America held the largest market share of 33.2% in 2025 in the global fragrance market. Europe dominated the global perfume market in 2024, securing the largest revenue share of 35.9%.Hair Care
The global hair care market size was valued at USD 119.1 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 219.7 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2030. Another source indicates the global hair care market size was valued at USD 84.55 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 112.27 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3.20% during the forecast period (2023-2031). The global hair and scalp care market size was estimated at USD 88.20 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 150.45 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.0% from 2026 to 2033. Asia-Pacific was the largest revenue-generating market in 2022 for hair care and held the largest market share of 37.51% in 2025 for hair and scalp care. North America accounted for 20.1% of the global hair care market in 2022 and is expected to register the highest CAGR from 2023 to 2030.AI Analysis | Feedback
- Geographic Expansion and Focus on High-Growth Markets: The company is prioritizing expansion in emerging markets, such as Latin America and Japan, and strengthening its presence in key regions like Mainland China, which has shown consistent double-digit growth. This strategy aims to diversify its global footprint and tap into new consumer bases.
- Product Innovation and Strategic Brand Development: Estée Lauder is committed to launching new products, expanding existing successful franchises, and focusing on high-growth categories. This includes initiatives like the launch of the Balmain Beauty brand in fiscal 2025, the expansion of its luxury fragrance portfolio, and premium skincare innovations such as Clinique CX for China and the Re-Nutriv longevity expansion into eye products. Brands like La Mer and The Ordinary are also driving growth through innovation.
- Digital Acceleration and Channel Optimization: The company is enhancing its online and e-commerce presence by expanding its digital footprint on platforms like Amazon, Shopee, and TikTok. Additionally, it is strategically resetting its global travel retail business to return to growth.
- Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) and Increased Consumer-Facing Investments: The ongoing Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, initiated in November 2023, is designed to restore sustainable sales growth and expand operating margins. This plan involves operational efficiencies that fund increased consumer-facing investments, boosting advertising spend, and optimizing marketing to enhance customer acquisition and strengthen brand equity.
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Share Repurchases
- Estée Lauder Companies made significant share repurchases, totaling approximately $2.31 billion in fiscal year 2022.
- Share repurchases decreased significantly in subsequent years, amounting to approximately $271 million in fiscal year 2023 and $35 million in fiscal year 2024 and fiscal year 2025, respectively.
- For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (ending December 31, 2025), share repurchases were approximately $66.84 million, with the company indicating that future repurchases should remain limited to fund restructuring, brand building, and debt reduction.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2022, Estée Lauder acquired the designer fashion house Tom Ford in a deal valued at $2.8 billion, a strategic move towards higher-margin luxury.
- The company completed its acquisition of DECIEM Beauty Group Inc. on May 31, 2024, paying an estimated $860 million in cash for the remaining interests, bringing the total investment to approximately $1.7 billion over three tranches since 2017.
- Estée Lauder has also made minority investments in various Chinese, Mexican, and Indian beauty labels to rebalance growth and embrace emerging markets.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $1.00 billion in fiscal year 2023 and decreased to $0.92 billion in fiscal year 2024.
- In fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures further decreased to $602 million, primarily due to the completion of payments related to a manufacturing facility in Japan during the prior year.
- For fiscal year 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately 4% of anticipated sales, with a focus on optimizing investments and prioritizing consumer-facing initiatives, including enhancements to brick-and-mortar and online distribution channels, and expanding consumer reach.
Peer Outperformance in Personal Care Products
null| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | Estee Lauder Companies | -1.7% | 193.8x | 17.8% | -33.5% | -68.3% | — |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | 2.0% | 21.1x | -5.3% | 1.6% | 13.6% | +82pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food Distributors | 8 | 5.3% | 43.2% | 69.0% | CHEF 305% · USFD 189% · ANDE 169% |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 8.6% | 35.2% | 53.8% | NGVC 229% · VLGEA 140% · WMT 137% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -39.6% | 14.1% | 41.4% | PM 137% · MO 106% · TPB 56% |
| Food Retail | 6 | -12.4% | 57.9% | 39.1% | CASY 231% · SFM 222% · KR 56% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 12 | -6.3% | -16.2% | 2.8% | COKE 423% · BRFH 202% · CCHGY 124% |
| Brewers | 3 | -16.0% | -32.0% | -1.4% | BUD 47% · TAP -1% · SAM -68% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | 8.1% | 0.3% | -12.0% | BG 82% · ADM 65% · INGR 34% |
| Household Products | 19 | 0.7% | -9.8% | -20.2% | ACU 82% · IPAR 81% · CL 27% |
| Personal Care Products ← | 4 | -5.3% | -25.6% | -27.0% | ELF 227% · PG 14% · COTY -68% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | 47 | -23.7% | -35.0% | -40.7% | MAMA 420% · LWAY 333% · SENEA 307% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -45.2% | -60.2% | -75.3% | STZ -38% · BF-B -58% · MGPI -75% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -41.1% | -85.7% | -93.1% | HITI -65% · PETS -93% · SCNX -99% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,002 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,655 |
| FCF LTM | 1,233 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,086 |
| CFO LTM | 1,670 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,613 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.8 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.2 |
| P/E | 20.8 |
| P/CFO | 16.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin Care | 6,962 | 7,908 | 8,249 | 9,886 | 9,484 |
| Makeup | 4,205 | 4,470 | 4,532 | 4,667 | 4,203 |
| Fragrance | 2,491 | 2,487 | 2,451 | 2,508 | 1,926 |
| Hair Care | 565 | 629 | 652 | 631 | 571 |
| Other | 100 | 115 | 53 | 49 | 45 |
| Returns associated with restructuring and other activities | 3 | -1 | -27 | -4 | -14 |
| Total | 14,326 | 15,608 | 15,910 | 17,737 | 16,215 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin Care | 574 | 735 | 1,277 | 2,753 | 3,036 |
| Other | -13 | 53 | 4 | 0 | -2 |
| Hair Care | -41 | -52 | -36 | -28 | -19 |
| Fragrance | -378 | 265 | 370 | 456 | 215 |
| Makeup | -441 | 93 | -21 | 133 | -384 |
| Charges associated with restructuring and other activities | -486 | -124 | -85 | -144 | -228 |
| Total | -785 | 970 | 1,509 | 3,170 | 2,618 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $97.12 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 35.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/17/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $89.71 | $91.84 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.3% | 5.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.7% | 48.5% |
| Downside Capture | 170.51 | 143.26 |
| Upside Capture | 187.18 | 136.01 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.8% | 38.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.80 | 1.27 | 0.97 | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Up Beta | -1.74 | -1.33 | -0.37 | 1.07 | 1.21 | 1.11 |
| Down Beta | 0.25 | 1.18 | 0.85 | 1.67 | 1.77 | 1.67 |
| Up Capture | 518% | 329% | 191% | 111% | 143% | 97% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 31 | 61 | 126 | 364 |
| Down Capture | 238% | 149% | 114% | 144% | 125% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 33 | 66 | 125 | 386 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | 12.7% | 48.5% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.5% | 14.4% | 0.21 | 26.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.3% | 12.8% | 1.03 | 38.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 29.2% | 0.59 | 25.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.3% | 20.6% | 1.80 | -14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 0.29 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.4% | 43.8% | -0.77 | 36.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | -21.2% | 44.3% | -0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.3% | 13.7% | 0.17 | 39.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 50.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 14.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.5% | 0.46 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 52.6% | 0.36 | 27.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | 2.2% | 37.1% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.1% | 14.9% | 0.35 | 44.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 16.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 44.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/19/2026 | 16.3% | 24.4% | |
| 5/1/2026 | 3.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -19.2% | -11.9% | -22.2% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.3% | -6.4% | -2.4% |
| 8/20/2025 | -3.7% | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.8% | -1.2% | 12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -16.1% | -17.0% | -12.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -20.9% | -27.4% | -16.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 7.2% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 24.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -27.4% | -25.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/19/2026 | 16.3% | 24.4% | |
| 5/1/2026 | 3.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -19.2% | -11.9% | -22.2% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.3% | -6.4% | -2.4% |
| 8/20/2025 | -3.7% | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.8% | -1.2% | 12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -16.1% | -17.0% | -12.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -20.9% | -27.4% | -16.9% |
| 8/19/2024 | -2.2% | -1.3% | -6.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -13.2% | -11.7% | -17.3% |
| 2/5/2024 | 12.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% |
| 11/1/2023 | -18.9% | -10.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/18/2023 | -3.3% | -7.0% | -4.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | -17.3% | -17.9% | -25.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -4.4% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| 11/2/2022 | -8.1% | 0.5% | 12.5% |
| 8/18/2022 | 1.8% | -4.0% | -13.2% |
| 5/3/2022 | -5.8% | -10.4% | -3.7% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.0% | 0.3% | -10.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 7.5% | 0.2% |
| 8/19/2021 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 0.4% |
| 5/3/2021 | -7.9% | -3.3% | -2.9% |
| 2/5/2021 | 7.8% | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| 11/2/2020 | 1.9% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| 8/20/2020 | -6.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 7.2% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 24.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -27.4% | -25.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/27/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/20/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 8/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.30 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.40 Bil | ||||
| 2027 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 12.7% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 12.75% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 3.1 | 3.23 | 3.35 | ||||
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.40 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 26.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 10.7% | 10.85% | 11.0% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.35 | 2.4 | 2.45 | 11.6% | Raised | Guidance: 2.15 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 12.5% | 12.75% | 13.0% | ||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 2.05 | 2.15 | 2.25 | 7.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | ||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Restructuring Charges | Reported | 1.20 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 1.60 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Restructuring Benefits | Reported | 800.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 0.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | ||||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.65 | -13.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.75 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.9 | 2 | 2.1 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/10/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barshefsky, Charlene | by a family trust | Sell | 9102026 | 98.82 | 3,775 | 373,046 | 5,036,908 | Form | |
| 2 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 103.32 | 7,766 | Form | ||
| 3 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 99.55 | 5,564 | Form | ||
| 4 | Lauder, Jane | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 94.38 | 17,840 | 1,683,739 | 5,546,052 | Form | |
| 5 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 94.45 | 1,604 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barshefsky, Charlene | by a family trust | Sell | 9102026 | 98.82 | 3,775 | 373,046 | 5,036,908 | Form | |
| 2 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 103.32 | 7,766 | Form | ||
| 3 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 99.55 | 5,564 | Form | ||
| 4 | Lauder, Jane | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 94.38 | 17,840 | 1,683,739 | 5,546,052 | Form | |
| 5 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 94.45 | 1,604 | Form | ||
| 6 | Webster, Meridith | Exec VP GlobalComm/PubAffairs | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 87.84 | 5,430 | Form | ||
| 7 | Sternlicht, Barry S | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 91.83 | 3,972 | 364,749 | 3,196,786 | Form | |
| 8 | Leonard, A. Lauder 2013 Revocable Trust | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 89.70 | 2,786,040 | Form | |||
| 9 | Evelyn, H. Lauder 2012 Marital Trust Two | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 89.70 | 2,845,283 | Form | |||
| 10 | Lal, 2015 Elf Trust | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 89.70 | 5,670,000 | Form | |||
| 11 | Forester, Lynn | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 91.65 | 3,702 | 339,288 | 1,418,650 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 14, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continental Grain Co | $37.3 Mil | 10.2% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $475.7 Mil | 3.3% | 26 | TRIM -15.4% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 2.8% | 40 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $50.1 Mil | 1.1% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $7.9 Mil | 0.9% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $475.7 Mil | 3.3% | 26 | TRIM -15.4% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $50.1 Mil | 1.1% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Continental Grain Co | $37.3 Mil | 10.2% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 2.8% | 40 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $7.9 Mil | 0.9% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
EL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Estee Lauder's turnaround is gaining momentum, with organic sales growth accelerating to 5% and operating margins expanding ahead of schedule. The company's profit recovery plan is delivering tangible results, supporting raised fiscal 2027 guidance. While the Makeup segment remains a challenge, strong execution in Skin Care and online channels underpins a constructive outlook.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Brand-Driven ConsumablesVolume of units sold x Average Selling Price (driven by brand strength, innovation, and channel mix). Mix shift towards the high-margin Skin Care segment and operating leverage achieved through the 'Profit Recovery and Growth Plan' (PRGP) cost efficiencies.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the turnaround is gaining traction ahead of schedule, with significant room for profit recovery.
- Operating margin expanded 320 basis points in fiscal 2026.
- Fiscal 2027 adjusted operating margin guidance was raised to a range of 12.7% to 13.5%.
- Organic sales growth accelerated to 5% in the most recent quarter.
- Inventory declined 3.6% year-over-year as revenue grew 6.3%, signaling strong operational efficiency.
- The online channel grew to a record 34% of sales in fiscal 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The Makeup and Hair Care segments remain unprofitable, and the company faces intense competition from faster-growing 'Indie Brands' achieving 31.2% growth.
- The Makeup segment posted a ($70) million operating loss in fiscal 2026.
- The Hair Care segment posted a ($4) million operating loss in fiscal 2026.
- Competitor e.l.f. Beauty reported 31.2% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth.
- The company noted a longer-term decline in retail traffic in its department store customers.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Net Sales Growth | 5% year-over-year for the fourth quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Turning around | After a period of decline, the company restored organic sales growth in fiscal 2026, delivering 3% for the full year. The latest quarter showed a significant acceleration from the prior quarter, indicating the company's turnaround plan, 'Beauty Reimagined', is gaining momentum and ending the fiscal year on a high note. |
| Online Organic Sales Growth | Double-digit growth for fiscal 2026 - Accelerating | Management described online performance as "outstanding," with the channel reaching a record 34% of reported sales for fiscal 2026, an increase of 3 percentage points from the prior year. This highlights successful execution in a key strategic channel. |
| Innovation as a Percentage of Sales | 23% (Fiscal Year 2026) | Measures the contribution of new products to total sales, indicating the success of the company's R&D and speed to market. |
| Online Sales as a Percentage of Reported Sales | 34% (Fiscal Year 2026) | Indicates the company's penetration in the high-growth online channel and its progress in shifting its distribution mix. |
| Travel Retail as a Percentage of Reported Sales | approximately 15% (Fiscal Year 2026) | Measures the company's exposure to the global travel retail channel, a significant but volatile contributor to sales. |
Internal Turnaround vs. External Competition
BULL VIEW
The profit recovery plan is delivering margin expansion faster than expected, with fiscal 2027 guidance raised, signaling strong internal momentum.
CORE TENSION
Can the company's margin recovery (op margin up 3.1 ppt) outpace share pressure from rivals growing over 6x faster?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Latest results favor the bulls; the company gained volume share in the U.S. and accelerated organic sales to 5%.
BEAR VIEW
Agile competitors like e.l.f. Beauty are growing at 31.2%, suggesting Estee Lauder is losing share in key segments despite its internal fixes.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/22/2026 | Procter & Gamble Earnings Watch: Peer Procter & Gamble is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Turnaround Execution Stalls Watch: Any deceleration in revenue growth or margin expansion, particularly commentary suggesting the Profit Recovery Plan is underperforming. |
11/3/2026 | Competitive Pressure from Indie Brands Watch: ELF's earnings report. Another quarter of rapid growth from ELF would highlight EL's slower pace and market share challenges. |
12/2/2026 | Ulta Beauty Earnings Watch: Peer Ulta Beauty is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Geopolitical or Macro Disruption Watch: News of new tariffs, sanctions, or escalating conflict in the Middle East or involving China. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-08 | Executive Leadership Roles Expanded Details: The company announced expanded leadership roles for two members of its Executive Team, including a new Chief Technology & Transformation Officer and a new President, Digital & Online, The Americas. | -4.9% $103.86 -> $98.77 |
2026-08-19 | FY27 Guidance Issued Details: The company raised its guidance for 2027 Adjusted Operating Margin and affirmed its guidance for 2027 Organic Net Sales Growth. Press reports noted the profit forecast was above Wall Street estimates. | +14.1% $83.98 -> $95.82 |
2026-08-19 | Fiscal 2026 Results Reported Details: The company reported fiscal 2026 results, with organic sales rising 3%. The stock had a two-day reaction of 14.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500. | +14.1% $83.98 -> $95.82 |
2026-07-26 | Analyst Consensus Rating Reported Details: Press reports indicated an average rating of 'Hold' from twenty-one research firms, with an average target price of $98.11. | +4.1% $79.65 -> $82.92 |
2026-05-21 | Puig Merger Talks Terminated Details: The company and Puig announced the end of discussions regarding a potential business combination. The CEO later stated the deal failed to go through because of the price tag. | +12.9% $77.64 -> $87.68 |
2026-05-01 | Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations Details: The company reported third-quarter results that extended strong year-to-date performance. The stock had a two-day reaction of 14.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500. | +6.0% $76.16 -> $80.74 |
2026-03-23 | Puig Merger Talks Confirmed Details: The company confirmed it was in discussions regarding a potential business combination with Puig, a Spanish beauty group. Press reports noted the deal could create a group with a combined market capitalization around $40 billion. | -16.8% $85.30 -> $70.96 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: EL trades at roughly 35% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market), around the 14th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
PG - Procter & Gamble
Defensive Scale PlayerProcter & Gamble offers exposure to the broader consumer staples market with superior scale and a significantly higher operating margin of 22.7%.
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty
High-Growth Challengere.l.f. Beauty provides pure-play exposure to the high-growth, on-trend segment of the beauty market, with revenue growing 31.2% year-over-year.
A prestige beauty powerhouse in the midst of a successful operational turnaround, leveraging its dominant Skin Care profit engine to fund a return to diversified growth.
Estee Lauder is executing a company-wide transformation called 'Beauty Reimagined' to streamline operations and reignite growth. Fiscal 2026 results show this strategy is working, with a return to organic sales growth and significant margin expansion. The company's strength lies in its portfolio of iconic brands, particularly in the highly profitable Skin Care segment and fast-growing Fragrance category. The key challenge and opportunity is to restore profitability in the Makeup and Hair Care segments while accelerating growth in Western markets to balance its significant exposure to China.
Sustained market share gains in China, a successful return to profitable growth in North America, and margin improvement in the Makeup segment.
A slowdown in the Chinese prestige beauty market, failure of the North American business to accelerate, or an inability to fix the profitability of the Makeup and Hair Care segments.
Minor executive leadership changes below the C-suite, short-term fluctuations in foreign currency.
Repricing Catalyst
Continued successful execution of the 'Profit Recovery and Growth Plan' (PRGP), leading to margin expansion and EPS growth that exceeds prior expectations, as demonstrated by the strong fiscal 2026 results and raised fiscal 2027 guidance.
Skin Care
$7.0B TTM (49% of Total) · 8% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a range of skin care products to consumers globally through wholesale and direct channels. Key brands mentioned include La Mer, Estée Lauder, and The Ordinary, which span from luxury to entry-prestige price tiers.
Who Pays & How
Consumers purchase these products seeking high-quality, innovative solutions for their skin. They are drawn to the strong brand reputations, perceived efficacy, and specific product benefits like longevity science.
Competition
Makeup
$4.2B TTM (29% of Total) · -10% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a portfolio of makeup products to consumers. Key brands include M·A·C, TOM FORD, Estée Lauder, and Clinique.
Who Pays & How
Consumers purchase makeup for personal use, driven by brand loyalty, product performance, and on-trend innovation. The company is focusing on expanding into high-growth channels like social commerce and specialty-multi retailers to reach younger consumers.
Competition
Fragrance
$2.5B TTM (17% of Total) · -15% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a range of prestige and luxury fragrances to consumers. Key brands include Le Labo, TOM FORD, KILIAN PARIS, and Jo Malone London.
Who Pays & How
Consumers purchase fragrances driven by brand desirability, unique scents, and new product launches. The company is investing to capture growing demand in the luxury fragrance segment.
Competition
Hair Care
$565M TTM (4% of Total) · -7% MarginWhat It Is
Sells hair care products to consumers through salons, spas, and retail channels. Key brands mentioned are Aveda and The Ordinary.
Who Pays & How
Consumers purchase these products for their perceived quality and performance. The segment benefits from both professional brand heritage (Aveda) and viral product popularity (The Ordinary).
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Personal Care Products Resources |
| Cosmetics Design |
| Global Cosmetics Industry |
| Happi - Personal Care |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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