Tearsheet

Estee Lauder Companies (EL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $102.3 | Market Cap: $36.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Personal Care Products

Estee Lauder Companies (EL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $102.3
Market Cap: $36.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Personal Care Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) stock experienced significant volatility rather than a consistent 12.1% increase between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. Several key factors influenced its movement during this period.

1. Weak Q4 2025 Earnings and Disappointing Outlook.
Estee Lauder's shares declined by 5.2% on August 20, 2025, following the release of its Q4 2025 earnings report. The company reported an 11.9% revenue decline to $3.41 billion and an 86% plunge in adjusted earnings per share to $0.09. This performance, despite surpassing low analyst expectations, represented substantial setbacks from the previous year. The outlook for the upcoming year was also disappointing, with management projecting tepid revenue growth of 0% to 3% in constant currency terms for fiscal 2026.

2. Subdued Chinese Consumer Demand and Travel Retail Weakness.
A major drag on Estee Lauder's performance was the continued subdued Chinese consumer demand and weakness in the global travel retail business. The company experienced a 24% revenue drop in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa due to reduced travel activity and fewer Chinese tourists. Sales in the Americas and Asia/Pacific also saw declines. The Q4 earnings call highlighted expectations for a stronger double-digit sales decline in global travel retail compared to Q3, impacted by shifts towards more profitable duty-free models in Korea and mainland China, as well as weak consumer sentiment in China.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EL Return30%40%-32%-40%-48%35%-48%
Peers Return16%15%-7%-9%-3%8%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EL Win Rate58%75%33%42%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%48%35%47%57%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EL Max Drawdown-30%-11%-48%-57%-56%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-8%-19%-19%-16%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, PG, CL, EL, KVUE. See EL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventELS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven255.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven158 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven60 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven169.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven329 days1480 days

Compare to JNJ, PG, CL, EL, KVUE


In The Past

Estee Lauder Companies's stock fell -71.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -71.9% loss requires a 255.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Estee Lauder Companies (EL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Estee Lauder Companies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ELJNJPGCLKVUEMedian
NameEstee La.Johnson .Procter .Colgate-.Kenvue  
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NameEstee La.Johnson .Procter .Colgate-.Kenvue  
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Valuation

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NameEstee La.Johnson .Procter .Colgate-.Kenvue  
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Returns

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NameEstee La.Johnson .Procter .Colgate-.Kenvue  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Skin Care7,9088,2499,8869,4847,382
Makeup4,4704,5324,6674,2034,794
Fragrance2,4872,4512,5081,9261,563
Hair Care629652631571515
Other11553494540
Returns associated with restructuring and other activities-1-27-4-14 
Total15,60815,91017,73716,21514,294


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Skin Care7351,2772,7533,0362,125
Fragrance26537045621517
Makeup93-21133-384-1,438
Other5340-24
Hair Care-52-36-28-19-19
Charges associated with restructuring and other activities-124-85-144-228-83
Total9701,5093,1702,618606


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,893,759
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202524.7%
Average Daily Volume4,443,452
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2
Basic Shares Quantity360,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025820202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024819202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023818202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022824202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-Q 12/31/2021