Toll Brothers (TOL)
Market Price (8/27/2026): $148.21 | Market Cap: $14.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Market Price (8/27/2026): $148.21Market Cap: $14.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 8.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.6% Key risksTOL key risks include [1] potential margin erosion and impairments tied to its strategy of increasing speculative home inventory. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.6% |
| Key risksTOL key risks include [1] potential margin erosion and impairments tied to its strategy of increasing speculative home inventory. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 8/25/2026
Toll Brothers (TOL) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Toll Brothers delivered stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 and Q3 2026.
The company's fiscal year ends on October 31st, with fiscal Q2 ending April 30, 2026, and fiscal Q3 ending July 31, 2026. For fiscal Q2 2026, reported on May 19, 2026, Toll Brothers announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.72, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.59 by 4.95%. Home sales revenues reached $2.51 billion, exceeding the midpoint of the company's guidance, and new orders, measured in units, increased by 7% year-over-year. Similarly, for fiscal Q3 2026, reported on August 18, 2026, Toll Brothers again beat expectations with an EPS of $2.97 against a consensus of $2.93, a 2.41% positive surprise, and revenue of $2.66 billion, above analysts' estimates of $2.62 billion.
2. Resilient demand within the luxury housing segment underpinned performance.
Toll Brothers' strategic focus on affluent buyers in the luxury move-up segment continued to be a significant driver. This segment remained the largest and most profitable, contributing 61% of home sales revenue, benefiting from resilient demand, lower incentive rates, and the ability for buyers to personalize homes. Management emphasized that this differentiated capability allows them to create value even in less favorable market conditions, as higher-end buyers are generally less sensitive to financing costs.
Show more
Toll Brothers (TOL) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Toll Brothers delivered stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 and Q3 2026.
The company's fiscal year ends on October 31st, with fiscal Q2 ending April 30, 2026, and fiscal Q3 ending July 31, 2026. For fiscal Q2 2026, reported on May 19, 2026, Toll Brothers announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.72, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.59 by 4.95%. Home sales revenues reached $2.51 billion, exceeding the midpoint of the company's guidance, and new orders, measured in units, increased by 7% year-over-year. Similarly, for fiscal Q3 2026, reported on August 18, 2026, Toll Brothers again beat expectations with an EPS of $2.97 against a consensus of $2.93, a 2.41% positive surprise, and revenue of $2.66 billion, above analysts' estimates of $2.62 billion.
2. Resilient demand within the luxury housing segment underpinned performance.
Toll Brothers' strategic focus on affluent buyers in the luxury move-up segment continued to be a significant driver. This segment remained the largest and most profitable, contributing 61% of home sales revenue, benefiting from resilient demand, lower incentive rates, and the ability for buyers to personalize homes. Management emphasized that this differentiated capability allows them to create value even in less favorable market conditions, as higher-end buyers are generally less sensitive to financing costs.
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Updated on 8/25/2026
Toll Brothers (TOL) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Toll Brothers delivered stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 and Q3 2026.
The company's fiscal year ends on October 31st, with fiscal Q2 ending April 30, 2026, and fiscal Q3 ending July 31, 2026. For fiscal Q2 2026, reported on May 19, 2026, Toll Brothers announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.72, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.59 by 4.95%. Home sales revenues reached $2.51 billion, exceeding the midpoint of the company's guidance, and new orders, measured in units, increased by 7% year-over-year. Similarly, for fiscal Q3 2026, reported on August 18, 2026, Toll Brothers again beat expectations with an EPS of $2.97 against a consensus of $2.93, a 2.41% positive surprise, and revenue of $2.66 billion, above analysts' estimates of $2.62 billion.
2. Resilient demand within the luxury housing segment underpinned performance.
Toll Brothers' strategic focus on affluent buyers in the luxury move-up segment continued to be a significant driver. This segment remained the largest and most profitable, contributing 61% of home sales revenue, benefiting from resilient demand, lower incentive rates, and the ability for buyers to personalize homes. Management emphasized that this differentiated capability allows them to create value even in less favorable market conditions, as higher-end buyers are generally less sensitive to financing costs.
3. The company demonstrated strong operational efficiency and strategic capital allocation.
Toll Brothers maintained stable build-to-order cycle times of approximately nine months and reduced finished spec inventory, contributing to bolstered gross margins and profitability. The company also expanded its community count by 9% year-over-year, securing a land pipeline for future growth. Furthermore, Toll Brothers reaffirmed its commitment to shareholder returns by raising its full-year fiscal 2026 share repurchase target to $700 million from $650 million.
4. Stabilizing mortgage rates and an improving broader housing market contributed positively.
During the period, mortgage rates, while still elevated, showed signs of stabilization. In early June 2026, 30-year fixed mortgage rates ranged between 6.3% and 6.6%. By late August 2026, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was around 6.65% to 6.71%, with economists anticipating a continued easing into the mid-5% to low-6% range for 2026, which is expected to expand the buyer pool. Concurrently, U.S. house prices increased by 2.1% year-over-year between fiscal Q2 2025 and fiscal Q2 2026, and by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter from fiscal Q1 to Q2 2026. Housing activity also picked up, with home sales rising 6.1% year-over-year as buyers adapted to prevailing mortgage rates.
Show less
Toll Brothers (TOL) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Toll Brothers delivered stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 and Q3 2026.
The company's fiscal year ends on October 31st, with fiscal Q2 ending April 30, 2026, and fiscal Q3 ending July 31, 2026. For fiscal Q2 2026, reported on May 19, 2026, Toll Brothers announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.72, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.59 by 4.95%. Home sales revenues reached $2.51 billion, exceeding the midpoint of the company's guidance, and new orders, measured in units, increased by 7% year-over-year. Similarly, for fiscal Q3 2026, reported on August 18, 2026, Toll Brothers again beat expectations with an EPS of $2.97 against a consensus of $2.93, a 2.41% positive surprise, and revenue of $2.66 billion, above analysts' estimates of $2.62 billion.
2. Resilient demand within the luxury housing segment underpinned performance.
Toll Brothers' strategic focus on affluent buyers in the luxury move-up segment continued to be a significant driver. This segment remained the largest and most profitable, contributing 61% of home sales revenue, benefiting from resilient demand, lower incentive rates, and the ability for buyers to personalize homes. Management emphasized that this differentiated capability allows them to create value even in less favorable market conditions, as higher-end buyers are generally less sensitive to financing costs.
3. The company demonstrated strong operational efficiency and strategic capital allocation.
Toll Brothers maintained stable build-to-order cycle times of approximately nine months and reduced finished spec inventory, contributing to bolstered gross margins and profitability. The company also expanded its community count by 9% year-over-year, securing a land pipeline for future growth. Furthermore, Toll Brothers reaffirmed its commitment to shareholder returns by raising its full-year fiscal 2026 share repurchase target to $700 million from $650 million.
4. Stabilizing mortgage rates and an improving broader housing market contributed positively.
During the period, mortgage rates, while still elevated, showed signs of stabilization. In early June 2026, 30-year fixed mortgage rates ranged between 6.3% and 6.6%. By late August 2026, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was around 6.65% to 6.71%, with economists anticipating a continued easing into the mid-5% to low-6% range for 2026, which is expected to expand the buyer pool. Concurrently, U.S. house prices increased by 2.1% year-over-year between fiscal Q2 2025 and fiscal Q2 2026, and by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter from fiscal Q1 to Q2 2026. Housing activity also picked up, with home sales rising 6.1% year-over-year as buyers adapted to prevailing mortgage rates.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.4% change in TOL stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 141.89 | 148.18 | 4.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,253 | 11,045 | -1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 11.7% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.8 | 10.9 | 11.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 95 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 4.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 46.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.0% | 57.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.9% change in TOL stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 143.97 | 148.18 | 2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,967 | 11,045 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 11.7% | -5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 95 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 49.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.1% | 58.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.1% change in TOL stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 117.49 | 148.18 | 26.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,660 | 11,045 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 11.7% | -9.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.5 | 10.9 | 28.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 95 | 5.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 26.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.2% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.4% | 55.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.0% change in TOL stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.40 | 148.18 | 89.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,494 | 11,045 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.6% | 11.7% | -14.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.1 | 10.9 | 79.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 95 | 16.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 89.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.3% | 47.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.9% | 55.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TOL Return | 68% | -30% | 109% | 23% | 8% | 12% | 269% |
| Peers Return | 48% | -21% | 82% | -0% | -7% | 1% | 101% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TOL Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 83% | 58% | 50% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 42% | 60% | 58% | 42% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TOL Max Drawdown | -21% | -43% | -18% | -26% | -36% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -42% | -22% | -27% | -24% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, MTH. See TOL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 515 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Toll Brothers's stock fell -21.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | TOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 515 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 554 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 362 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Toll Brothers's stock fell -21.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Toll Brothers (TOL)
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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading luxury homebuilder operating across the United States. The company specializes in designing, building, marketing, and selling a wide range of high-end detached and attached homes, including condominiums through its Toll Brothers City Living segment. They also facilitate the financing for these residential properties.
Beyond traditional home construction, Toll Brothers has diversified its operations. This includes developing, owning, and operating golf courses, country clubs, and rental apartment communities, often through strategic partnerships. The company also provides various interior fit-out options for homes and manages integrated architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, and manufacturing operations, ensuring a comprehensive service offering.
Toll Brothers primarily serves an affluent customer base within the luxury residential market. Their clientele includes move-up buyers, empty-nesters, active-adults, and individuals seeking second homes in prestigious communities throughout the U.S.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Toll Brothers (TOL):
- The Mercedes-Benz of homebuilders.
- The Four Seasons of luxury residential communities.
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- Detached and Attached Luxury Homes: Designs, builds, markets, and sells a range of luxury detached and attached homes within residential communities.
- Condominiums: Designs, builds, markets, and sells luxury condominiums, typically through its City Living segment.
- Apartment Rentals: Develops, operates, and rents apartments in various communities, often through strategic partnerships.
- Land Sales: Develops and sells land, often for residential or commercial use.
- Golf Courses & Country Clubs: Develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs, which often complement its luxury residential communities.
- Mortgage and Home Financing Services: Arranges and provides mortgage and financing solutions for home buyers.
- Title and Insurance Services: Offers title and insurance services to facilitate the home purchasing process.
- Interior Design and Fit-Out Options: Provides a variety of interior design and fit-out options, including flooring, fixtures, appliances, and home automation technologies for new homes.
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Major Customers of Toll Brothers (TOL)
Toll Brothers primarily sells its luxury homes and condominiums directly to individual consumers. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Move-up buyers
- Empty-nester buyers
- Active-adult buyers
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Douglas C. Yearley, Jr. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Douglas C. Yearley, Jr. joined Toll Brothers in 1990 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since June 2010 and Chairman of the Board since October 2018. He initially specialized in land acquisitions and project management, learning the homebuilding business from the ground up. Prior to joining Toll Brothers, he practiced law in New Jersey as a commercial litigator. He has held various management positions over his more than 30 years with the company, including Vice President, Senior Vice President, Regional President, and Executive Vice President. Mr. Yearley holds a Bachelor of Science degree from Cornell University in Applied Economics and Business Management and a Juris Doctor degree from Rutgers Law School.
Gregg Ziegler Chief Financial Officer
Gregg Ziegler was promoted to Chief Financial Officer of Toll Brothers in November 2025, a role effective October 31, 2025, after more than 23 years with the Company. He leads the Company's accounting, treasury & finance, tax, investor relations, risk management, internal audit, mortgage, title, and information technology functions. Mr. Ziegler began his career at Toll Brothers in 2002 as an Assistant Finance Director and has held various roles of increasing responsibility, including Senior Vice President in 2010, Treasurer in 2013, and leading the Investor Relations department in May 2024. Before joining Toll Brothers, he was a principal at Katalyst, a venture capital and private equity firm. He also worked as an associate with Berwind Corporation, a family-owned investment management company, and at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Mr. Ziegler holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting and a Master of Business Administration from Villanova University.
Robert Parahus President and Chief Operating Officer
Robert Parahus serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Toll Brothers, overseeing the Company's national homebuilding operations across 24 states and the District of Columbia. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Architectural Engineering from The Pennsylvania State University.
Kellie Hall Chief Human Resources Officer
Kellie Hall began her Human Resources career with Toll Brothers in 1997. She has worked in a variety of roles within the HR organization, leading teams in Recruiting, Employee Relations, Talent Development, and Talent Management before being promoted to Vice President in 2013. In 2021, she was appointed Chief Human Resources Officer. Throughout her career, Ms. Hall has played a key role in mergers & acquisitions, system implementations, change management, and leadership development initiatives.
Timothy Hoban Senior Vice President and General Counsel
Timothy Hoban serves as Senior Vice President and General Counsel of Toll Brothers. He is also the Chief Compliance Officer.
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Here are the key risks to Toll Brothers' business:
- Fluctuations in Housing Market Demand, Interest Rates, and Economic Conditions: Toll Brothers' business is highly susceptible to shifts in the housing market, which are influenced by factors such as employment levels, consumer confidence, and the availability of financing. Economic downturns, inflation, and higher interest rates can significantly reduce housing affordability and demand, potentially leading to inventory impairments, increased cancellations of home sales agreements, and reduced profit margins.
- Rising Construction Material Costs, Labor Shortages, and Supply Chain Disruptions: The profitability of Toll Brothers is directly impacted by the fluctuating and often increasing costs of essential construction materials like lumber, steel, and concrete. Persistent supply chain disruptions can exacerbate these cost pressures. Additionally, labor shortages within the construction industry can lead to increased labor costs and project delays.
- Land Acquisition and Regulatory Risks: A fundamental aspect of Toll Brothers' business involves acquiring suitable land for its luxury residential communities. Risks include the availability of desirable land at reasonable prices and obtaining necessary governmental approvals for development. The company is also subject to regulatory changes, including environmental laws and zoning regulations, which can delay projects and increase operational costs.
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Toll Brothers operates within several significant addressable markets across the United States. The company's main products and services include the design, construction, marketing, and sale of luxury detached and attached homes, condominiums, and the development and rental of apartments.
The addressable markets for Toll Brothers' main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
* Luxury Residential Real Estate Market: The United States Luxury Residential Real Estate Market is expected to grow from USD 291.14 billion in 2025 to USD 298.61 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 349.38 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.19% over the 2026-2031 period. This market encompasses luxury homes and condominiums, with apartments and condominiums holding a 56.62% share in 2025. Another report estimates the domestic luxury residential real estate market, currently valued at approximately $289 billion, is projected to exceed $338 billion by 2030.
* Residential Construction Market (New Builds): The overall U.S. residential construction market size is estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2026, growing from a 2025 value of USD 1.35 trillion, and is projected to reach USD 1.76 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.53% between 2026 and 2031. New-build activity constituted 69.05% of this market in 2025.
* Apartment and Condominium Construction Market: The U.S. apartment and condominium construction market was valued at USD 91.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to USD 124.2 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.1% during the 2025–2032 period.
* Apartment Rental Market: The Apartment Rental industry in the United States is expected to generate revenue of $305.7 billion by the end of 2026.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Toll Brothers (TOL) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Home Deliveries and Community Count Expansion: Toll Brothers anticipates increasing its number of home deliveries, which directly correlates with revenue growth. The company expects to deliver between 11,200 and 11,600 homes for the full fiscal year 2025. Additionally, the company increased its community count by 10% to 408 communities at the end of fiscal year 2024, indicating a broader reach for future sales.
- Maintaining Strong Average Selling Prices (ASPs): The ability to command higher prices for its luxury homes is a key revenue driver. Toll Brothers reported an increase in its average sales price to $1,033,000 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. This consistent pricing power, along with effective cost management, is crucial for sustained profitability and revenue growth.
- Focus on the Luxury Home Market and Affluent Customer Base: As "America's Luxury Home Builder," Toll Brothers benefits from resilient demand within the luxury segment, targeting move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. This strategic focus on affluent buyers helps mitigate broader market cyclicality and supports consistent sales performance.
- Geographic Diversification and Expansion: The company operates across 24 states and over 60 markets, a diversified footprint that positions it for continued growth. Toll Brothers' multi-year strategy includes widening its geographies and price points, with a particular focus on areas like Texas and Florida to capitalize on regional demand.
- Favorable Demographic Trends: Demographic tailwinds are expected to support future housing demand. This includes Millennials entering their prime home-buying years and the ongoing transfer of wealth from Baby Boomers to Millennials, both of which are anticipated to drive demand for high-quality new homes.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- From May 2022 through December 2023, Toll Brothers repurchased approximately 13.3 million shares for an aggregate purchase price of around $800 million.
- In December 2023, the Board of Directors approved a new 20 million share repurchase authorization to replace the existing program.
- Toll Brothers increased its projected share repurchases for fiscal 2025 from $500 million to $600 million and plans $650 million in share repurchases for fiscal 2026.
Share Issuance
- The company's shares outstanding declined by 4.69% in 2025 from 2024, by 5.69% in 2024 from 2023, and by 5.91% in 2023 from 2022, indicating a net reduction in shares through repurchases rather than significant issuances.
Inbound Investments
- In August 2021, Toll Brothers established a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities, targeting nearly $1.9 billion in new rental communities over three years.
- Under this partnership, Equity Residential committed to investing 75% of the equity for each project, with an initial minimum co-investment target of approximately $750 million in combined equity.
Outbound Investments
- As part of the strategic partnership with Equity Residential formed in August 2021, Toll Brothers committed to investing 25% of the equity for developing new rental apartment communities.
- In September 2025, Toll Brothers announced an agreement to sell its interests in approximately half of its Apartment Living portfolio and its operating platform for $380 million, with plans to fully exit the multifamily business.
Capital Expenditures
- Fiscal 2024 free cash flow of $936.52 million supported capital expenditures, dividends, and strategic investments.
- In the fourth quarter ended October 31, 2025, the company spent approximately $580.0 million on land to purchase approximately 3,214 lots.
- Toll Brothers focuses on driving return on equity through more capital-efficient land buying, product optimization, and other strategies.
Peer Outperformance in Homebuilding
TOL has outperformed 88% of its 17 Homebuilding peers over 5Y. Homebuilding ranks 2nd of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Homebuilding constituents that TOL has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
76%
of 17 industry peers · 8.4% return
3Y
94%
of 17 industry peers · 96.2% return
5Y
88%
of 17 industry peers · 142.4% return
No Homebuilding peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten TOL by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Homebuilding is TOL's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -16.6% | 105.7% | 70.5% | LINC 304% · CVSA 267% · PRDO 220% |
| Homebuilding ← | 18 | -2.0% | 34.5% | 43.5% | GRBK 190% · PHM 149% · TOL 142% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 22.2% | 55.8% | 14.6% | RCL 258% · MAR 175% · HLT 164% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -15.0% | 3.4% | 9.8% | MUSA 248% · PAG 174% · ORLY 127% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | -3.3% | 28.5% | 7.5% | FIVE 20% · SIG 11% · DKS 9% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -16.9% | 0.1% | 4.9% | HD 17% · LOW 13% · HVT 5% |
| Distributors | 4 | -5.2% | -21.9% | -6.4% | ARMK 149% · GPC 30% · LKQ -43% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -7.3% | 24.1% | -9.2% | HRB 141% · FTDR 89% · SCI 48% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -6.0% | -6.0% | -13.0% | EAT 340% · CAKE 178% · RAVE 151% |
| Footwear | 9 | 62.5% | 43.8% | -15.4% | WEYS 163% · DECK 27% · SHOO 22% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -6.3% | 28.0% | -16.4% | SGI 46% · LZB 2% · MHK -35% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -5.4% | -18.0% | -30.8% | GOLF 80% · HAS 20% · MCFT -6% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -9.6% | -24.5% | -32.5% | MCRI 107% · RSI 76% · RRR 60% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | 1.2% | 11.9% | -37.6% | ANF 297% · DXLG 196% · URBN 140% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -13.9% | -4.6% | -38.3% | MOD 1367% · GTX 299% · STRT 91% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -0.5% | 1.1% | -38.9% | TPR 248% · ELA 239% · RL 239% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 8.5% | 42.5% | -40.5% | KEQU 188% · FLXS 153% · HBB 121% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | -17.4% | -9.7% | -43.8% | OSW 150% · JAKK 97% · ESCA 5% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | 8.4% | 11.3% | -50.0% | DDS 304% · AMZN 55% · EBAY 49% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -17.6% | 4.9% | -60.4% | BBY -6% · UPBD -60% · GME -65% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -63.0% | -67.4% | -70.9% | GM 80% · TSLA 46% · F 42% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -12.8% | -20.1% | -78.9% | AXIL 2129% · GRMN 82% · TBCH -55% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -30.6% | -44.4% | -78.9% | BBW 163% · TLF 108% · WINA 96% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 139.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.2 |
| Rev LTM | 13,726 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,944 |
| FCF LTM | 1,131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,315 |
| CFO LTM | 1,189 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,385 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -25.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -12.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.2 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.3 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 13.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 10,967 | ||||
| Corporate and other | 0 | 2 | -1 | 1 | |
| Home building | 10,563 | 9,864 | 9,712 | ||
| Land sales and other revenues | 283 | 129 | 564 | 359 | |
| City Living | 371 | ||||
| Traditional Home Building | 8,060 | ||||
| Total | 10,967 | 10,847 | 9,995 | 10,276 | 8,790 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home building | 10,603 | 9,847 | 9,611 | ||
| Corporate and other | 2,765 | 2,680 | 2,677 | 2,877 | 2,815 |
| City Living | 333 | 540 | |||
| Traditional Home Building | 8,328 | 7,711 | |||
| Total | 13,368 | 12,527 | 12,289 | 11,538 | 11,066 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $148.18 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 14.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $151.61 | $143.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.3% | 3.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.7% | 34.7% |
| Downside Capture | 131.31 | 123.24 |
| Upside Capture | 146.57 | 106.85 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.3% | 45.6% |
TOL Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.14 | 1.11 | 1.42 | 1.32 | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| Up Beta | -1.69 | 0.42 | 1.46 | 1.83 | 1.88 | 1.11 |
| Down Beta | 0.69 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.34 | 0.90 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 121% | 150% | 141% | 104% | 111% | 224% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 29 | 59 | 120 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 288% | 100% | 142% | 118% | 103% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 34 | 67 | 132 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 7.7% | 34.6% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 1.3% | 19.3% | -0.06 | 56.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.3% | 12.8% | 1.18 | 45.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 36.2% | 28.8% | 1.06 | 17.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.6% | 20.3% | 1.46 | -39.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.8% | 13.6% | 0.57 | 48.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.6% | 43.6% | -0.65 | 12.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 21.8% | 36.4% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.6% | 24.1% | 0.23 | 60.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 56.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.3% | 18.7% | 0.89 | 12.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.6% | 0.41 | -2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 58.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.0% | 52.7% | 0.41 | 25.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 19.0% | 41.3% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 57.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.6% | 16.3% | 0.64 | 12.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 54.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 16.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/27/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/18/2026 | 4.0% | 5.6% | |
| 5/19/2026 | 9.8% | 12.7% | 25.4% |
| 2/17/2026 | -2.3% | -2.6% | -16.4% |
| 12/8/2025 | -2.4% | 3.1% | -0.5% |
| 8/19/2025 | -0.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.5% | -0.3% | 3.6% |
| 2/18/2025 | -5.9% | -6.1% | -12.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.9% | -14.0% | -20.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 6.0% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 12.7% | 25.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.0% | -20.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/18/2026 | 4.0% | 5.6% | |
| 5/19/2026 | 9.8% | 12.7% | 25.4% |
| 2/17/2026 | -2.3% | -2.6% | -16.4% |
| 12/8/2025 | -2.4% | 3.1% | -0.5% |
| 8/19/2025 | -0.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.5% | -0.3% | 3.6% |
| 2/18/2025 | -5.9% | -6.1% | -12.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.9% | -14.0% | -20.9% |
| 8/20/2024 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 14.7% |
| 5/21/2024 | -8.5% | -9.0% | -10.1% |
| 2/20/2024 | 3.9% | 7.5% | 19.4% |
| 12/5/2023 | 1.9% | 6.0% | 14.4% |
| 8/22/2023 | 3.9% | 4.0% | -3.0% |
| 5/23/2023 | 2.1% | 6.2% | 19.4% |
| 2/21/2023 | 3.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| 12/6/2022 | 7.7% | 10.1% | 16.1% |
| 8/23/2022 | 1.3% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 5/24/2022 | 8.0% | 12.0% | 1.1% |
| 2/22/2022 | -6.4% | 2.7% | -5.3% |
| 12/7/2021 | 1.7% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| 8/24/2021 | 4.3% | 4.9% | -1.9% |
| 5/25/2021 | 3.8% | 3.0% | -8.3% |
| 2/23/2021 | 3.2% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 12/7/2020 | -7.9% | -9.0% | -9.9% |
| 8/25/2020 | -2.1% | -4.7% | 3.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 6.0% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 12.7% | 25.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.0% | -20.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/19/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/19/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/22/2020 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/26/2019 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/19/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 8/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Deliveries | 3,450 | 3,500 | 3,550 | 32.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 2,650 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Deliveries | 10,500 | 10,550 | 10,600 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10,550 for 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.99 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 2.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.97 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.99 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.99 Mil for 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.0% | 0.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 25.25% for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.1% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.1% for 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.08 | -1.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.1 for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.1 for 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 2.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 475 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 485 for 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 3.0E9% | ||||||
| 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 1.2E10% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Tax Rate | 26.0% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 26.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 25.2% | -0.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 25.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 10.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 700.00 Mil | 7.7% | Raised | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Deliveries | 2,600 | 2,650 | 2,700 | 8.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 2,450 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.96 Mil | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.98 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 25.25% | -0.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 25.5% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | -0.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.11 for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Period-End Community Count | 475 | 4.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 455 for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Tax Rate | 26.0% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 26.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2026 Deliveries | 10,400 | 10,550 | 10,700 | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10,500 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 0.98 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.1% | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 26.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.1 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 485 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | 25.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.5% for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Deliveries | 2,400 | 2,450 | 2,500 | 32.4% | Higher New | Actual: 1,850 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | 0.98 Mil | -1.0% | Lower New | Actual: 0.99 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 25.5% | -0.8% | Lower New | Actual: 26.25% for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.11 | -3.5% | Lower New | Actual: 0.14 for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Period-End Community Count | 455 | 2.2% | Higher New | Actual: 445 for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | 26.0% | 2.8% | Higher New | Actual: 23.2% for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Deliveries | 10,300 | 10,500 | 10,700 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10,500 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.98 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.1 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 485 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 1.3E10% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.3E10% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 25.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Community Count Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 12/8/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Deliveries | 1,800 | 1,850 | 1,900 | -44.8% | Lower New | Actual: 3,350 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 0.97 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.25% | -0.8% | Lower New | Actual: 27.0% for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.14 | 5.9% | Higher New | Actual: 0.08 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Period-End Community Count | 445 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 445 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 7.0E9% | 7.7% | Higher New | Actual: 6.5E9% for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Tax Rate | 23.2% | -2.3% | Lower New | Actual: 25.5% for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Deliveries | 10,300 | 10,500 | 10,700 | -6.2% | Lower New | Actual: 11,200 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 2.6% | Higher New | Actual: 0.95 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.0% | -1.2% | Lower New | Actual: 27.25% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | 0.8% | Higher New | Actual: 0.09 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 9.0% | Higher New | Actual: 445 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 1.3E10% | 18.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.1E10% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 25.5% | 0.4% | Higher New | Actual: 25.1% for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 156.58 | 77,957 | 12,206,375 | 50,301,718 | Form |
| 2 | East, Stephen F | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 139.70 | 1,000 | 139,700 | 1,877,847 | Form | |
| 3 | McLean, John A | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 153.43 | 2,313 | 354,889 | 2,664,964 | Form | |
| 4 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 159.15 | 27,014 | 4,299,308 | 51,128,246 | Form |
| 5 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 160.42 | 45,116 | 7,237,609 | 51,536,600 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 156.58 | 77,957 | 12,206,375 | 50,301,718 | Form |
| 2 | East, Stephen F | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 139.70 | 1,000 | 139,700 | 1,877,847 | Form | |
| 3 | McLean, John A | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 153.43 | 2,313 | 354,889 | 2,664,964 | Form | |
| 4 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 159.15 | 27,014 | 4,299,308 | 51,128,246 | Form |
| 5 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 160.42 | 45,116 | 7,237,609 | 51,536,600 | Form |
| 6 | Shapiro, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 146.68 | 3,965 | 581,581 | 17,407,816 | Form | |
| 7 | Sandstrom, Katherine M | Direct | Buy | 10172025 | 126.87 | 68 | 8,627 | 8,627 | Form | |
| 8 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 148.08 | 20,145 | 2,983,106 | 39,385,586 | Form |
| 9 | Shapiro, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 147.65 | 3,812 | 562,848 | 17,534,070 | Form | |
| 10 | Pritchett, Wendell E | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 138.71 | 2,500 | 346,783 | 1,874,154 | Form | |
| 11 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 138.26 | 25,000 | 3,456,385 | 39,557,220 | Form |
| 12 | Connor, Martin P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 137.51 | 5,350 | 735,665 | 2,099,465 | Form |
| 13 | Grubb, Michael J | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 140.63 | 500 | 70,315 | 272,682 | Form |
| 14 | Parahus, Robert | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 130.84 | 9,831 | 1,286,250 | 2,576,424 | Form |
| 15 | East, Stephen F | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 115.33 | 2,500 | 288,325 | 1,474,726 | Form | |
| 16 | Grubb, Michael J | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 7152025 | 120.00 | 500 | 60,000 | 292,680 | Form |
| 17 | Garvey, Christine | Trust | Sell | 7152025 | 119.82 | 770 | 92,258 | 1,388,663 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 27, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Homebuilding Resources |
| Builder Online |
| Professional Builder |
| HousingWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 8/26/2026