Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Green Building Certification, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Green Building Certification, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NVR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of NVR (NVR) experienced a decline of approximately 5.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Weakening Financial Performance: NVR announced its third-quarter results on October 22, 2025, reporting a decrease in net income and diluted earnings per share compared to the same period in 2024. Net income for the third quarter of 2025 fell by 20% to $342.7 million, and diluted earnings per share decreased by 14% to $112.33. Consolidated revenues for the third quarter also saw a decline of 4.5% year-over-year to $2.64 billion. This downturn in profitability and revenue contributed to a cautious outlook for investors.

2. Decline in New Orders and Increased Cancellations: The company reported a 16% decrease in new orders for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 4,735 units, compared to 5,650 units in the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, the cancellation rate rose to 19% in the third quarter of 2025 from 15% in the prior year. These figures suggest a softening demand in the housing market, impacting NVR's future revenue prospects.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NVR Return7%45%-22%52%17%-7%100%
Peers Return4%53%-20%77%17%12%198%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NVR Win Rate67%75%33%58%67%30% 
Peers Win Rate58%73%42%65%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NVR Max Drawdown-43%-4%-38%-1%-2%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-4%-37%-2%-6%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WFC, DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL. See NVR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNVRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven312 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-46.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven85.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven143 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven320 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven163.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1214 days1480 days

Compare to WFC, DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL


In The Past

NVR's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NVR (NVR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NVR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
NVR_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022NVRNVRDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.1%58.6%-2.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
NVR_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022NVRNVRDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.1%58.6%-2.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NVR

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NVRWFCDHIPHMTOLMedian
NameNVR Wells Fa.D.R. Hor.PulteGro.Toll Bro. 
Mkt Price------
Mkt Cap------
Rev LTM------
Op Inc LTM------
FCF LTM------
FCF 3Y Avg------
CFO LTM------
CFO 3Y Avg------

Growth & Margins

NVRWFCDHIPHMTOLMedian
NameNVR Wells Fa.D.R. Hor.PulteGro.Toll Bro. 
Rev Chg LTM------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg------
Rev Chg Q------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM------
Op Mgn LTM------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM------
CFO/Rev LTM------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg------
FCF/Rev LTM------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg------

Valuation

NVRWFCDHIPHMTOLMedian
NameNVR Wells Fa.D.R. Hor.PulteGro.Toll Bro. 
Mkt Cap------
P/S------
P/EBIT------
P/E------
P/CFO------
Total Yield------
Dividend Yield------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg------
D/E------
Net D/E------

Returns

NVRWFCDHIPHMTOLMedian
NameNVR Wells Fa.D.R. Hor.PulteGro.Toll Bro. 
1M Rtn------
3M Rtn------
6M Rtn------
12M Rtn------
3Y Rtn------
1M Excs Rtn------
3M Excs Rtn------
6M Excs Rtn------
12M Excs Rtn------
3Y Excs Rtn------

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Cash and cash equivalents3,1262,5032,5452,7151,111
Homebuilding Mid Atlantic1,2521,1531,3231,1411,025
Homebuilding South East797698629494401
Mortgage Banking452406372555560
Homebuilding Mid East368379439377294
Homebuilding North East315250235203167
Deferred taxes148144133133116
Operating lease right-of-use assets7071595364
Consolidation adjustments and other6351669343
Reorganization value and goodwill4949495050
Finance lease right-of-use assets131415167
Contract land deposit allowance-53-57-30-52-28
Total6,6025,6615,8345,7773,810


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity68,077
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-18.2%
Average Daily Volume22,192
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.07
Basic Shares Quantity2,873,501
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021