Tearsheet

Meritage Homes (MTH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $68.28 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Meritage Homes (MTH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $68.28
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more.
  Key risks
MTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%
6 Key risks
MTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MTH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, is in the future. As such, definitive stock movements and their explanatory factors cannot be determined at this time. However, some current reporting and future outlooks for Meritage Homes (MTH) within and around this period provide context.

1. Meritage Homes is scheduled to release its Fourth Quarter 2025 results on January 28, 2026, after the market closes, with a conference call on January 29, 2026. This means that the full financial performance data for the requested period will not be available until early 2026.

2. Meritage Homes provided guidance for Q4 2025, projecting total home closings between 3,800 and 4,000 units and home closing revenue of $1.46 billion to $1.54 billion. This guidance, issued after Q3 2025 results, suggests the company's expectations for the period in question.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MTH Return36%47%-24%91%-10%-7%140%
Peers Return20%52%-22%86%6%4%193%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTH Win Rate58%75%50%67%42%42% 
Peers Win Rate68%75%40%63%62%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTH Max Drawdown-55%-3%-47%0%-14%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-4%-41%-0%-6%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven300 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven263 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven635.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,580 days1,480 days

Compare to DY, IBP, TMHC, KBH, LGIH


In The Past

Meritage Homes's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Meritage Homes (MTH)

Better Bets than Meritage Homes (MTH)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
MTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11142025MTHMeritage HomesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.9%3.9%-3.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
MTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11142025MTHMeritage HomesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.9%3.9%-3.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Meritage Homes

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Mkt Price68.29152.00112.23122.807,472.55139.16130.98
Mkt Cap4.845.028.724.121.513.722.8
Rev LTM6,04834,25034,76617,62310,47610,87714,250
Op Inc LTM6614,4243,4703,3951,7821,7682,589
FCF LTM-2533,284-7131,5521,2929181,105
FCF 3Y Avg1613,1542,7831,8751,4301,2011,652
CFO LTM-2253,421-5681,6681,3199951,157
CFO 3Y Avg1933,3052,9181,9831,4571,2741,720

Growth & Margins

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Rev Chg LTM-6.0%-6.9%-4.7%1.8%3.4%3.3%-1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.6%0.9%3.0%5.4%1.4%4.4%2.3%
Rev Chg Q-10.7%-3.2%-6.4%-1.6%-4.5%8.0%-3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.8%-0.9%-1.7%-0.4%-1.2%2.0%-1.1%
Op Mgn LTM10.9%12.9%10.0%19.3%17.0%16.3%14.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.9%15.4%13.6%20.6%18.4%17.5%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-1.2%-1.5%-0.7%-0.6%-0.4%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-3.7%10.0%-1.6%9.5%12.6%9.1%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%9.4%8.4%11.6%14.4%11.9%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.2%9.6%-2.1%8.8%12.3%8.4%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.4%8.9%8.0%10.9%14.2%11.2%9.9%

Valuation

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Mkt Cap4.845.028.724.121.513.722.8
P/S0.81.30.91.52.21.01.2
P/EBIT7.310.29.37.612.26.48.4
P/E9.512.512.09.916.18.210.9
P/CFO-22.813.1-56.715.617.511.312.2
Total Yield12.9%9.1%10.0%10.8%6.2%12.7%10.4%
Dividend Yield2.3%1.1%1.6%0.7%0.0%0.4%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.6%7.1%7.3%9.2%6.3%12.1%7.2%
D/E0.40.10.20.10.00.30.2
Net D/E0.20.10.10.0-0.00.20.1

Returns

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
1M Rtn6.4%10.3%-1.6%8.1%4.4%9.9%7.2%
3M Rtn-8.9%-10.3%-15.2%-8.2%-8.2%-0.5%-8.6%
6M Rtn10.7%26.0%9.5%24.3%7.1%32.5%17.5%
12M Rtn-14.5%4.8%-24.6%6.8%-11.8%5.7%-3.5%
3Y Rtn55.6%75.1%27.1%171.6%55.2%183.4%65.3%
1M Excs Rtn5.7%9.6%-2.4%7.3%3.7%9.1%6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-11.6%-11.5%-16.5%-9.6%-10.0%-1.6%-10.7%
6M Excs Rtn-1.7%13.7%-2.9%11.9%-5.3%20.1%5.1%
12M Excs Rtn-27.6%-8.5%-37.1%-6.4%-24.1%-6.2%-16.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-7.7%13.1%-36.8%113.2%-9.6%121.3%2.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Homebuilding5,326    
Corporate and Unallocated1,026852608767349
Financial Services22111
Homebuilding - Central 1,5521,290952831
Homebuilding - East 1,4701,243916924
Homebuilding - West 1,8971,6651,2291,293
Total6,3535,7724,8083,8643,398


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,925,510
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.3%
Average Daily Volume1,015,004
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.87
Basic Shares Quantity70,680,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-5.6%-8.1%4.1%
7/23/2025-5.0%-9.1%0.1%
4/23/20251.0%-0.1%-5.7%
1/29/20252.8%-2.1%-8.1%
10/29/2024-1.7%5.7%4.9%
7/24/20240.9%5.9%0.7%
4/24/20246.7%7.7%11.6%
1/31/2024-7.3%-7.4%-3.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151513
# Negative8810
Median Positive6.4%5.7%8.5%
Median Negative-5.3%-7.7%-5.2%
Max Positive11.7%16.6%47.5%
Max Negative-7.8%-10.9%-10.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021