Meritage Homes (MTH)
Market Price (11/7/2025): $66.36 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Meritage Homes (MTH)
Market Price (11/7/2025): $66.36Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MTH Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTH Return | 36% | 47% | -24% | 91% | -10% | -13% | 124% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 46% | -17% | 64% | 4% | -12% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTH Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 60% | 32% | 47% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTH Max Drawdown | -55% | -3% | -47% | 0% | -14% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -3% | -33% | 0% | -6% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVCO, SPHL, DHI, LEN, PHM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 300 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 263 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 635.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1580 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CVCO, SPHL, DHI, LEN, PHM
In The Past
Meritage Homes's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -6.2% |
| 03312020 | MTH | Meritage Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 192.1% | 151.8% | -15.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -6.2% |
| 03312020 | MTH | Meritage Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 192.1% | 151.8% | -15.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Meritage Homes
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 119.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.4 |
| Rev LTM | 17,623 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,395 |
| FCF LTM | 180 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,875 |
| CFO LTM | 210 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.4 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.9 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 99.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -38.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 19.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -5.6% | -8.1% | |
| 7/23/2025 | -5.0% | -9.1% | 0.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 1.0% | -0.1% | -5.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.8% | -2.1% | -8.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.9% | 5.9% | 0.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% |
| 1/31/2024 | -7.3% | -7.4% | -3.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 5.7% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -7.7% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 16.6% | 47.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.9% | -10.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |