Meritage Homes (MTH)
Market Price (3/31/2026): $60.0 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Meritage Homes (MTH)
Market Price (3/31/2026): $60.0Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. | Key risksMTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Key risksMTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Decline in Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.
Meritage Homes reported a substantial decrease in its fourth-quarter 2025 results, which negatively impacted investor sentiment. Net earnings for Q4 2025 plummeted by 51% to $84.0 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, compared to $172.6 million, or $2.36 per diluted share, in Q4 2024. This performance fell below analyst estimates, which ranged from $1.53 to $1.55 diluted EPS. The company also missed revenue expectations, with home closing revenue decreasing 12% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.51 billion. Furthermore, the reported home closing gross margin declined to 16.5% from 23.2% in the prior year, influenced by increased incentives and non-recurring charges totaling $42.9 million, including terminated land deal walk-away charges and real estate inventory impairments.
2. Cautious 2026 Outlook and Persistent Affordability Challenges.
Meritage Homes provided a conservative outlook for full-year 2026, projecting home closing volume and revenue to be consistent with 2025 results, assuming no further deterioration in market conditions. CEO Phillippe Lord highlighted the "persistence of affordability challenges and deteriorating buyer confidence" as key headwinds. This cautious guidance, coupled with ongoing concerns about buyer confidence, suggested a challenging operating environment ahead for the company, contributing to the stock's downward trend.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.7% change in MTH stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.09 | 60.07 | -16.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,048 | 5,861 | -3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.0% | 7.7% | -13.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.4 | 9.2 | -2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 69 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | -16.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 32.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -10.5% | 45.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.2% change in MTH stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.21 | 60.07 | -21.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,219 | 5,861 | -5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 7.7% | -24.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.5 | 9.2 | 7.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 69 | 3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | -21.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 31.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.5% | 44.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.4% change in MTH stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.18 | 60.07 | -14.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,393 | 5,861 | -8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 7.7% | -37.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.4 | 9.2 | 42.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 69 | 4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | -14.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 39.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.3% | 50.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.5% change in MTH stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 141.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.55 | 60.07 | 16.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,298 | 5,861 | -6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.8% | 7.7% | -50.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.8 | 9.2 | 141.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 69 | 5.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | 16.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 40.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 49.0% | 47.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTH Return | 47% | -24% | 91% | -10% | -12% | -8% | 54% |
| Peers Return | 52% | -22% | 86% | 6% | -3% | -7% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -7% | 70% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTH Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 43% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTH Max Drawdown | -3% | -47% | 0% | -14% | -18% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -41% | -0% | -6% | -21% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 300 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 263 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 635.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,580 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL
In The Past
Meritage Homes's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.9% gain to breakeven.
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About Meritage Homes (MTH)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Meritage Homes is like a Ford or Toyota for houses, manufacturing new single-family homes for first-time and first move-up buyers across the country.
Meritage Homes is similar to a D.R. Horton or Lennar, designing and building new single-family homes in various U.S. states.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Single-Family Homes: Meritage Homes designs, constructs, markets, and sells single-family homes, primarily to first-time and first move-up buyers.
- Title Insurance: The company provides title insurance services to its homebuyers.
- Closing/Settlement Services: Meritage Homes offers closing and settlement services to facilitate the home purchasing process for its buyers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) sells primarily to individual homebuyers. Based on the company description, the major categories of customers it serves are:
- First-time buyers
- First move-up buyers
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Phillippe Lord, Chief Executive Officer
Phillippe Lord has served as CEO of Meritage Homes and a Board director since 2021. He previously held the roles of Chief Operating Officer of Meritage Homes from 2015 to 2020 and President of the West Region from 2012 to 2015. Lord began his career at Meritage Homes in 2008 by establishing the company's strategic operations and market research department. Prior to joining Meritage Homes, he held leadership positions with Acacia Capital, Centex Homes, and Pinnacle West Capital.
Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hilla Sferruzza has served as Chief Financial Officer of Meritage Homes since 2016. Her prior roles at the company include Chief Accounting Officer (2010-2021) and Corporate Controller (2010-2015). She began her career at Meritage Homes in 2006 in accounting, finance, and financial reporting management. Before joining Meritage, Ms. Sferruzza held various leadership positions at KPMG and Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, Inc., which was later acquired by Marriott International. She is recognized for her expertise in residential construction, land acquisition, debt and equity capital transactions, M&A and divestiture structures, and financial modeling.
Steven J. Hilton, Executive Chairman of the Board
Steven J. Hilton co-founded Monterey Homes, the predecessor company to Meritage Homes, in 1985. He led Meritage Homes for 35 years as Chairman and CEO until his retirement from the CEO role in January 2021, and continues to serve as Executive Chairman. Under his leadership, Monterey became publicly traded in 1997, and Meritage Homes acquired eight other homebuilding companies between 1997 and 2005.
Javier Feliciano, Chief People Officer
Javier Feliciano has been the Chief People Officer of Meritage Homes since 2015. Before his tenure at Meritage Homes, Mr. Feliciano held leadership positions at companies such as Ford Motor Company, PepsiCo, Apollo Education Group, and Valeo.
Austin Woffinden, Executive Vice President, Corporate Operations and Strategy
Austin Woffinden became Executive Vice President, Corporate Operations and Strategy for Meritage Homes, effective January 1, 2026. He began his career at Meritage in 2007 as a Vice President Regional Counsel and has since held various operational leadership roles, including Area President of Dallas Fort Worth and Nashville, and Division President of Dallas Fort Worth. Prior to joining Meritage, Mr. Woffinden worked at the law firm of Greenberg Traurig, LLP.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Meritage Homes (MTH) are primarily driven by the cyclical nature of the homebuilding industry and current macroeconomic conditions.
- Adverse Housing Market Conditions: Meritage Homes faces significant risk from challenging housing market conditions, including elevated interest rates, high home prices, and reduced affordability. These factors can decrease consumer demand for new homes, making it more difficult to sell properties and exerting downward pressure on sales volumes and revenues. The company's focus on entry-level and first move-up buyers makes it particularly susceptible to affordability headwinds. Delays in interest rate reductions or smaller-than-anticipated cuts would prolong the challenging demand environment.
- Margin Pressure from Incentives and Costs: To stimulate sales in a less favorable market, Meritage Homes often relies on increased incentives and mortgage rate buydowns, which directly erode gross profit margins. Additionally, persistent land inflation and sustained increases in construction costs, including building materials and labor, can further squeeze profitability and disrupt operations.
- Inventory Risk from Spec Home Model: Meritage Homes utilizes a 100% "spec home" model, building homes before securing a buyer to facilitate faster closings. While this strategy can increase market share in certain conditions, it also significantly elevates inventory risk. If housing demand slows unexpectedly, the company could accumulate a large inventory of unsold homes, leading to increased carrying costs, a greater need for price reductions and incentives, and further negative impacts on margins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
One clear emerging threat for Meritage Homes is the **rapid scaling of advanced off-site construction methods**, such as modular, panelized, or 3D-printed home construction. As these technologies mature, they offer the potential for significantly faster build times, reduced labor costs, and enhanced material efficiency compared to traditional stick-built construction. If competitors or new entrants in Meritage's markets successfully scale these methods to deliver comparable quality homes at lower price points or with greater speed, it could disrupt Meritage's competitive position and challenge its traditional construction model.
Another clear emerging threat is the **aggressive expansion of institutional Build-to-Rent (BTR) single-family home communities**. Meritage targets first-time and first move-up homebuyers. The continued influx of institutional capital into the BTR sector, leading to large-scale development of purpose-built rental communities, could increase competition for suitable land parcels and potentially siphon off a significant portion of Meritage's target demographic who might otherwise purchase a home. This trend represents a shift in consumer preference and accessibility, potentially shrinking the addressable market for traditional for-sale homebuilders.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Meritage Homes (MTH) operates within the U.S. single-family home construction market and provides title insurance and closing/settlement services. The addressable market sizes for Meritage Homes' main products and services in the United States are:- Single-Family Home Construction: The single-family housing construction market in the U.S. was valued at approximately $804.08 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $845.86 billion in 2026. This market is expected to reach $1.09 trillion by 2030.
- Title Insurance and Closing/Settlement Services: The U.S. title insurance industry's revenue is estimated at $17.1 billion in 2025. The North American title insurance market, which includes the U.S., was valued at an estimated $2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2032.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Meritage Homes (MTH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Increased Community Count: The company is focused on expanding its community count, with expectations of double-digit year-over-year growth in 2025 and continued growth of 5-10% in 2026. This expansion directly addresses the persistent undersupply of housing in the U.S. and positions Meritage Homes to capture increased new home demand.
- Targeting Entry-Level and First Move-Up Buyers with Move-in Ready Homes and 60-Day Closing Commitments: Meritage Homes specializes in entry-level and first move-up homes, a segment with strong demand due to favorable demographic shifts from Millennials and Gen Z entering homebuying age. The company's "move-in ready" spec home strategy and 60-day closing commitment aim to shorten the sales cycle, provide certainty to buyers, and effectively compete with the resale market, thereby driving sales volume.
- Strategic Land Investments: Meritage Homes is actively investing in land acquisition and development, controlling a significant supply of lots for future homebuilding. These strategic land investments are crucial for supporting the planned increase in community count and overall growth.
- Geographic Expansion and Diversification: The company has expanded its presence nationwide across 12 states, focusing on high-growth markets in the Sunbelt. Meritage Homes is also exploring new endeavors like build-to-rent (BTR), which can further contribute to addressing housing affordability and generating revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025) for Meritage Homes (MTH)
Share Repurchases
- Meritage Homes repurchased approximately $294.999 million in shares in 2025. As of November 20, 2025, $536 million remained available under the authorized share repurchase program, with plans to increase quarterly repurchases to $100 million in 2026.
- In 2024, the company's annual share buybacks totaled $125.932 million.
- For 2022, Meritage Homes repurchased 1,166,040 shares of common stock for $109.3 million.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding has generally declined over the past 3-5 years, reflecting net repurchases rather than significant issuances for capital raising. For example, shares outstanding declined by 2.71% in 2025 from 2024, and by 1.09% in 2024 from 2023.
- A two-for-one stock split was completed in January 2025, which increased the number of shares but did not represent an issuance of new equity for capital.
Outbound Investments
- In the fourth quarter of 2024, Meritage Homes completed the acquisition of Elliott Homes, a private builder. This acquisition added approximately 5,500 lots and expanded Meritage Homes' presence into new markets like Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle.
Capital Expenditures
- Meritage Homes allocated $2.5 billion towards land acquisition and development in 2024, an increase from $1.9 billion in 2023.
- In 2022, approximately $1.5 billion was invested in land acquisition and development.
- The company expects reduced land acquisition and development spend in 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MTH.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 11142025 | MTH | Meritage Homes | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.7% | 13.7% | -3.3% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 122.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| Rev LTM | 14,283 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,235 |
| FCF LTM | 1,275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,555 |
| CFO LTM | 1,331 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,624 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 11.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $60.07 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/16/1988 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $70.19 | $70.19 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.4% | -14.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.1% | 39.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.58 | 0.82 |
| Upside Capture | 72.28 | 82.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.6% | 38.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.28 | 0.46 | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | -1.04 | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1.46 | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 14% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 76% | 150% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 27 | 58 | 120 | 377 |
| Down Capture | -116% | -43% | 38% | 64% | 96% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 34 | 65 | 129 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH | -15.2% | 39.8% | -0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.5% | 23.6% | 0.13 | 50.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 19.0% | 0.60 | 38.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.7% | 1.42 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.5% | 17.6% | 0.83 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 56.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.0% | 44.3% | -0.49 | 21.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH | 8.2% | 38.9% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.8% | 23.7% | 0.21 | 53.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.0% | 0.55 | 50.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.7% | 0.97 | 10.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.2% | 18.8% | 0.53 | 7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 55.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 20.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH | 13.7% | 42.5% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.6% | 21.9% | 0.49 | 56.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 10.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 17.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 56.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 15.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/28/2026 | 1.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 10/28/2025 | -5.6% | -8.1% | 4.1% |
| 7/23/2025 | -5.0% | -9.1% | 0.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 1.0% | -0.1% | -5.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.8% | -2.1% | -8.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.9% | 5.9% | 0.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -7.7% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 16.6% | 47.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.9% | -10.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 400.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Home closing volume | 3,800 | 3,900 | 4,000 | ||||
| Q4 2025 Home closing revenue | 1.46 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 1.54 Bil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Home closing gross margin | 19.0% | 19.5% | 20.0% | ||||
| Q4 2025 Effective tax rate | 24.5% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Diluted EPS | 1.51 | 1.6 | 1.7 | ||||
| 2025 Land acquisition and development spend | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lord, Phillippe | Chief Executive Officer | Limited Partnership and Limited Liability Company | Sell | 8222025 | 80.01 | 6,950 | 556,070 | 17,707,813 | Form |
| 2 | Clinton, Malissia | EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 71.59 | 6,518 | 466,620 | 626,336 | Form |
| 3 | Arriola, Dennis V | HELD IN TRUST | Buy | 7292025 | 77.21 | 20 | 1,544 | 557,456 | Form | |
| 4 | Arriola, Dennis V | HELD IN TRUST | Buy | 7292025 | 70.00 | 2,200 | 154,000 | 665,840 | Form | |
| 5 | Keough, Joseph | Direct | Buy | 6122025 | 66.16 | 4,000 | 264,640 | 2,758,872 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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