Lennar (LEN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $129.51 | Market Cap: $33.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Lennar (LEN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $129.51Market Cap: $33.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Lennar's (LEN) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Lennar's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Missed Expectations.
On September 18, 2025, Lennar reported its fiscal third-quarter results, which fell short of analyst expectations. The company announced net earnings of $591 million, or $2.29 per diluted share, a decrease from the prior year. Total revenues also declined by 6.4% to $8.81 billion, missing analyst forecasts. This earnings miss led to an immediate drop in Lennar's stock price, falling 4.18% in aftermarket trading.
2. Analyst Downgrade and Concerns Over Operational Transition.
On December 1, 2025, BTIG downgraded Lennar's stock to a "Sell" rating, setting a price target of $96.00. The downgrade stemmed from concerns about Lennar's ongoing operational strategy transition, noting that the company's margins, earnings, and return on equity had "declined materially" during this period. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also reiterated a "Market Perform" rating and lowered its fourth-quarter and 2026 earnings estimates for Lennar.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LEN Return | 38% | 54% | -21% | 67% | -7% | -3% | 152% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 47% | -20% | 74% | 13% | 8% | 191% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LEN Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 72% | 42% | 62% | 63% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LEN Max Drawdown | -47% | -4% | -44% | 0% | -7% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -5% | -37% | -2% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, PHM, NVR, J, TOL. See LEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 581 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1441.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3239 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DHI, PHM, NVR, J, TOL
In The Past
Lennar's stock fell -44.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -44.8% loss requires a 81.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.2% | 9.2% | -3.9% |
| 03312022 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | 31.9% | -20.2% |
| 09302018 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 20.0% | -18.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.2% | 9.2% | -3.9% |
| 03312022 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | 31.9% | -20.2% |
| 09302018 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 20.0% | -18.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lennar
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Financials
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10032025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7012025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4042025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1232025 | 10-K 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10022024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6282024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3292024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1262024 | 10-K 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6302023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4042023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1262023 | 10-K 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10042022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7012022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4012022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1282022 | 10-K 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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