Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $278.41 | Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $278.41Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 93% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Datacenter Power, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Key risksSTRL key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 93% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Datacenter Power, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Key risksSTRL key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 11/4/2026
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stock has lost about 50% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Sterling Infrastructure experienced a series of analyst downgrades and substantial price target cuts throughout fiscal Q3 and early fiscal Q4 2026. For instance, on August 5, 2026, Keybanc significantly reduced its price target from $922 to $754, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $956 to $742. This was followed by Zacks Research downgrading STRL from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on August 7, 2026, and Weiss Ratings similarly lowering its rating to "hold (c+)" in September 2026. Further cuts occurred in October and November 2026, reflecting a collective shift in analyst sentiment that contributed to negative market perception and selling pressure.
2. Market Correction from Perceived Overvaluation: The stock underwent a significant market correction from its previously high valuation. STRL reached an all-time high of $1,005.68 on June 3, 2026. By mid-October 2026, the stock had pulled back approximately 50% from this peak to around $513, and continued to decline to approximately $280-$300 by early November 2026. This sharp decline occurred as investors re-evaluated its elevated valuation, which included trading at 25.6x expected fiscal year 2026 earnings and a forward EV/EBITDA of 17.2x, notably higher than the sector median of 11.6x, as observed in mid-October 2026.
Show more
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stock has lost about 50% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Sterling Infrastructure experienced a series of analyst downgrades and substantial price target cuts throughout fiscal Q3 and early fiscal Q4 2026. For instance, on August 5, 2026, Keybanc significantly reduced its price target from $922 to $754, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $956 to $742. This was followed by Zacks Research downgrading STRL from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on August 7, 2026, and Weiss Ratings similarly lowering its rating to "hold (c+)" in September 2026. Further cuts occurred in October and November 2026, reflecting a collective shift in analyst sentiment that contributed to negative market perception and selling pressure.
2. Market Correction from Perceived Overvaluation: The stock underwent a significant market correction from its previously high valuation. STRL reached an all-time high of $1,005.68 on June 3, 2026. By mid-October 2026, the stock had pulled back approximately 50% from this peak to around $513, and continued to decline to approximately $280-$300 by early November 2026. This sharp decline occurred as investors re-evaluated its elevated valuation, which included trading at 25.6x expected fiscal year 2026 earnings and a forward EV/EBITDA of 17.2x, notably higher than the sector median of 11.6x, as observed in mid-October 2026.
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Updated on 11/4/2026
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stock has lost about 50% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Sterling Infrastructure experienced a series of analyst downgrades and substantial price target cuts throughout fiscal Q3 and early fiscal Q4 2026. For instance, on August 5, 2026, Keybanc significantly reduced its price target from $922 to $754, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $956 to $742. This was followed by Zacks Research downgrading STRL from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on August 7, 2026, and Weiss Ratings similarly lowering its rating to "hold (c+)" in September 2026. Further cuts occurred in October and November 2026, reflecting a collective shift in analyst sentiment that contributed to negative market perception and selling pressure.
2. Market Correction from Perceived Overvaluation: The stock underwent a significant market correction from its previously high valuation. STRL reached an all-time high of $1,005.68 on June 3, 2026. By mid-October 2026, the stock had pulled back approximately 50% from this peak to around $513, and continued to decline to approximately $280-$300 by early November 2026. This sharp decline occurred as investors re-evaluated its elevated valuation, which included trading at 25.6x expected fiscal year 2026 earnings and a forward EV/EBITDA of 17.2x, notably higher than the sector median of 11.6x, as observed in mid-October 2026.
3. Investor Concerns over Margin Pressure and Concentration Risk in E-Infrastructure: Despite Sterling Infrastructure reporting exceptional fiscal Q3 2026 results, with adjusted diluted EPS surging 118% year-over-year and revenue jumping 127%, and subsequently raising its full-year 2026 guidance, investor concerns emerged regarding potential margin pressure in its fast-growing E-Infrastructure segment. In Q2 2026, investors focused on "signs of margin pressure" in this key business. Analysts highlighted that the integration of acquisitions, such as CEC Facilities Group, introduced lower EBITDA margins (around 13%) compared to the legacy site development business, which was expected to "drag margins down a bit in a first stage." Additionally, the company's concentration in end-markets like data centers faced risks from "capex timing and customer pauses" that could quickly slow demand.
4. Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds in the Construction Sector: The overall construction market faced significant headwinds during the period, contributing to cautious investor sentiment. The FMI's Q4 2026 Outlook forecasted a 3.4% decline in overall U.S. construction spending for 2026 compared to 2025, primarily driven by falling residential and manufacturing construction. Specifically, housing starts were projected to fall by 6.2% in 2026 and an additional 8.8% in 2027. These broader sector challenges, alongside factors like "uneven demand, volatile material prices, labor constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty," likely impacted investor appetite for construction-related stocks, including STRL, despite its strong performance in specialized segments.
Show less
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stock has lost about 50% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Sterling Infrastructure experienced a series of analyst downgrades and substantial price target cuts throughout fiscal Q3 and early fiscal Q4 2026. For instance, on August 5, 2026, Keybanc significantly reduced its price target from $922 to $754, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $956 to $742. This was followed by Zacks Research downgrading STRL from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on August 7, 2026, and Weiss Ratings similarly lowering its rating to "hold (c+)" in September 2026. Further cuts occurred in October and November 2026, reflecting a collective shift in analyst sentiment that contributed to negative market perception and selling pressure.
2. Market Correction from Perceived Overvaluation: The stock underwent a significant market correction from its previously high valuation. STRL reached an all-time high of $1,005.68 on June 3, 2026. By mid-October 2026, the stock had pulled back approximately 50% from this peak to around $513, and continued to decline to approximately $280-$300 by early November 2026. This sharp decline occurred as investors re-evaluated its elevated valuation, which included trading at 25.6x expected fiscal year 2026 earnings and a forward EV/EBITDA of 17.2x, notably higher than the sector median of 11.6x, as observed in mid-October 2026.
3. Investor Concerns over Margin Pressure and Concentration Risk in E-Infrastructure: Despite Sterling Infrastructure reporting exceptional fiscal Q3 2026 results, with adjusted diluted EPS surging 118% year-over-year and revenue jumping 127%, and subsequently raising its full-year 2026 guidance, investor concerns emerged regarding potential margin pressure in its fast-growing E-Infrastructure segment. In Q2 2026, investors focused on "signs of margin pressure" in this key business. Analysts highlighted that the integration of acquisitions, such as CEC Facilities Group, introduced lower EBITDA margins (around 13%) compared to the legacy site development business, which was expected to "drag margins down a bit in a first stage." Additionally, the company's concentration in end-markets like data centers faced risks from "capex timing and customer pauses" that could quickly slow demand.
4. Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds in the Construction Sector: The overall construction market faced significant headwinds during the period, contributing to cautious investor sentiment. The FMI's Q4 2026 Outlook forecasted a 3.4% decline in overall U.S. construction spending for 2026 compared to 2025, primarily driven by falling residential and manufacturing construction. Specifically, housing starts were projected to fall by 6.2% in 2026 and an additional 8.8% in 2027. These broader sector challenges, alongside factors like "uneven demand, volatile material prices, labor constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty," likely impacted investor appetite for construction-related stocks, including STRL, despite its strong performance in specialized segments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -52.5% change in STRL stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 596.77 | 283.66 | -52.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,885 | 4,313 | 49.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.0% | 12.9% | 6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.8 | 15.7 | -70.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -52.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | -52.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | -5.8% | 46.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.0% change in STRL stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 515.62 | 283.66 | -45.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,490 | 4,313 | 73.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.7% | 12.9% | 10.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 54.5 | 15.7 | -71.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -45.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | -45.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 36.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.7% | 44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.9% change in STRL stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 377.90 | 283.66 | -24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,138 | 4,313 | 101.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 12.9% | -3.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.3 | 15.7 | -61.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | -24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.2% | 50.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 289.4% change in STRL stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 131.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.85 | 283.66 | 289.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,868 | 4,313 | 131.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 12.9% | 99.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 15.7 | -15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 289.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | 289.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.2% | 52.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STRL Return | 41% | 25% | 168% | 92% | 82% | -7% | 1424% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 3% | 30% | 70% | 36% | -8% | 285% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STRL Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 63% | 65% | 65% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STRL Max Drawdown | -19% | -35% | -25% | -24% | -48% | -71% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -31% | -29% | -15% | -33% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PWR, MTZ, PRIM, GVA, ACM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Sterling Infrastructure's stock fell -17.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | STRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1108 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2100 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2664 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4437 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Sterling Infrastructure's stock fell -17.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) is a diversified heavy civil and infrastructure construction company operating across the Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, Rocky Mountain states, California, and Hawaii. The company's business is segmented into three primary areas: transportation infrastructure, specialty site infrastructure (e-infrastructure), and residential and commercial concrete solutions.
In its core transportation segment, Sterling undertakes vital infrastructure and rehabilitation projects for public entities. This includes constructing and improving highways, roads, bridges, airports, ports, light rail, and water management systems like water, wastewater, and storm drainage. Their primary customers for these large-scale projects are state departments of transportation, regional transit, airport, and port authorities, as well as water authorities and railroads. The e-infrastructure segment provides specialty site improvement contracting services for high-growth sectors, serving blue-chip end users in e-commerce, data center, distribution center and warehousing, and energy industries.
The company's building solutions segment focuses on concrete work for both residential and commercial markets. This includes providing concrete foundations for single-family and multi-family homes, constructing parking structures, elevated slabs, and other specialized concrete projects. Their customer base for these services includes national, regional, and custom home builders, along with developers and general contractors in the commercial sector.
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They are a diversified construction company akin to Granite Construction (a major builder of highways and public infrastructure), but also specializing in site preparation for data centers and e-commerce warehouses, and concrete foundations for residential and commercial buildings.
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- Transportation & Public Infrastructure: Construction and rehabilitation services for major public works such as highways, bridges, airports, ports, and water systems.
- E-infrastructure & Commercial Site Development: Specialty site infrastructure improvement services catering to sectors like e-commerce, data centers, and large-scale commercial facilities.
- Building Solutions (Concrete Foundations): Provides concrete foundations and related structural concrete work for residential homes, multi-family units, and commercial buildings.
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Major Customers of Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) primarily serves other companies and governmental entities across its three main business segments. The company's major customers fall into the following categories:
- Governmental and Public Authorities: This includes departments of transportation in various states, regional transit authorities, airport authorities, port authorities, water authorities, and railroads for infrastructure and rehabilitation projects. These are not publicly traded companies but public sector organizations.
- Blue-Chip Corporations: For its specialty site infrastructure improvement services, STRL serves "blue-chip end users" in the e-commerce, data center, distribution center and warehousing, and energy sectors. Specific company names are not disclosed in the description, but these are large corporate clients.
- Home Builders, Developers, and General Contractors: In its residential and commercial concrete foundation segment, STRL works for national home builders, regional and custom home builders, developers, and general contractors in commercial markets. Specific company names for these clients are not provided.
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Joseph A. Cutillo – Chief Executive Officer
Joe Cutillo has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. since 2017. He joined Sterling in 2015. Prior to his role at Sterling, Mr. Cutillo was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Inland Pipe Rehabilitation LLC, a private equity-backed trenchless pipe rehabilitation company, from 2008 to 2015. He also held leadership positions at Contech Construction Products, Ingersoll-Rand Corp, and General Electric. He is credited with leading a strategic transformation at Sterling, focusing on high-complexity, private-sector projects.
Nicholas Grindstaff – Chief Financial Officer
Nicholas Grindstaff was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Sterling Infrastructure, Inc., effective July 10, 2025. He brings over 30 years of finance and leadership experience, with a strong background in the infrastructure and energy industries. Most recently, he served as CFO of Cinterra, a turnkey solar and renewable energy contractor, from late 2024 to June 2025. From 2021 to 2024, he was the CFO of Orbital Infrastructure Group, Inc., a diversified infrastructure services company. Earlier in his career, Mr. Grindstaff spent more than two decades at Quanta Services, Inc., where his roles included Treasurer and Vice President – Finance.
Daniel Govin – Chief Operating Officer
Daniel Govin serves as Sterling's Chief Operating Officer, having joined the company in August 2024. He has 30 years of experience in operations and leadership, with previous roles including Regional President at Quanta Services and President of Par Electrical Contractors within the energy infrastructure industry.
Mark Wolf – General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary
Mark Wolf has been the General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary of Sterling since August 2020. Before joining Sterling, he served as Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary of US Well Services, Inc., and held legal roles at TechnipFMC and FMC Technologies, Inc.
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Key Risks for Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
- Dependence on Government Infrastructure Spending and Economic Conditions: A significant portion of Sterling Infrastructure's business relies on contracts from government agencies for transportation and water infrastructure projects. Funding for these projects is subject to political decisions, budgetary allocations, and economic conditions. Similarly, the company's residential and commercial concrete foundation work is directly tied to the health of the broader economy, interest rates, and demand in the housing and commercial construction markets. A decline in government infrastructure spending or a downturn in the construction sector could significantly impact the company's revenues and profitability.
- Volatility in Material and Labor Costs: As a heavy civil and concrete contractor, Sterling Infrastructure is highly exposed to fluctuations in the cost of key construction materials such as asphalt, concrete, and steel. The availability and cost of skilled labor also present a significant risk. Unexpected increases in material or labor costs, particularly on fixed-price contracts, can erode profit margins and negatively affect project profitability.
- Intense Competition and Project Bidding Risks: The construction industry is highly competitive, and Sterling Infrastructure operates in a fragmented market. The company faces risks associated with intense competition for new projects, which can lead to aggressive bidding, reduced profit margins, or the loss of desirable contracts. Accurate estimation of project costs, schedules, and potential risks is crucial for successful bidding and project execution.
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Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) operates in several addressable markets primarily within the United States.
For its main products and services, the addressable markets are sized as follows:
Transportation Infrastructure (U.S.)
- The U.S. transportation infrastructure market was valued at approximately USD 380.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 550.5 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2025 to 2032.
- Another estimate for the U.S. transportation infrastructure construction market indicates a value of USD 233.03 billion in 2025, with a forecast to reach USD 298.12 billion by 2031 at a 4.19% CAGR.
E-Infrastructure (U.S.)
This segment includes specialty site infrastructure for e-commerce, data centers, distribution centers, warehousing, and energy sectors.
- Data Center Construction: The U.S. data center construction market was valued between approximately USD 14.35 billion and USD 94.14 billion in 2025. Projections suggest growth to a range of USD 21.43 billion by 2030 to USD 211.66 billion by 2033, with various sources indicating CAGRs between 5.15% and 11% over different forecast periods.
- Warehousing & Distribution Center Construction: The broader U.S. industrial building construction market, which encompasses warehouses, data centers, and specialized manufacturing facilities, was valued at USD 43.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 61.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% during 2025–2032. As of December 2024, approximately USD 9 billion worth of warehousing and distribution projects were under construction in the U.S.
- Energy Infrastructure Construction: The U.S. power infrastructure market was valued at USD 264.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to USD 455.6 billion by 2032, advancing at a CAGR of 7.2% during 2025–2032. The energy and utilities construction market was valued at $139.64 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $208.73 billion in 2030.
Building Solutions (U.S.)
This covers residential and commercial concrete foundations and other concrete work.
- Overall Concrete Market: The U.S. concrete market was estimated at USD 351,372.5 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 541,383.5 million by 2035, growing at a CAGR of around 4.01% from 2025 to 2035.
- Concrete Contractors: The market size for Concrete Contractors in the U.S. was approximately USD 110.4 billion in 2025 and USD 110.5 billion in 2026.
- Precast Concrete: The U.S. precast concrete market, which includes components used in residential and commercial construction, was valued at USD 20.85 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 36.45 billion by 2033. Residential applications constitute 63.2% of this market.
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Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Booming E-Infrastructure Demand: The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment is projected to be the primary driver of revenue growth, fueled by the accelerating demand for data centers (including AI data centers), semiconductor fabrication facilities, advanced manufacturing plants, and e-commerce distribution and warehousing centers. This segment saw a 123% year-over-year revenue surge in Q4 2025 and is targeting 40% or higher growth in 2026.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Recent acquisitions, such as CEC Facilities Group, have significantly expanded Sterling Infrastructure's E-Infrastructure capabilities, particularly in specialty electrical and mechanical contracting, and have notably boosted the company's backlog and revenue. The acquisition of Drake Concrete also strengthened the Building Solutions segment.
- Robust Backlog and Project Pipeline: The company's record-high signed backlog, which reached $3 billion at the end of 2025, along with unsigned awards and future phase opportunities totaling approximately $4.5 billion, provides substantial revenue visibility for the coming years.
- Geographic Expansion and Market Penetration: Sterling Infrastructure is strategically expanding its presence into new high-growth regions, such as Texas and the Pacific Northwest, to capitalize on large-scale infrastructure projects. The company is actively deploying teams into selected markets ahead of upcoming "megaprojects" to secure long-term opportunities.
- Stable Contribution from Transportation Solutions: The Transportation Solutions segment is expected to continue providing stable revenue growth, supported by the ongoing federal infrastructure funding cycle through initiatives like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Management anticipates low to mid-single-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion in this segment.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Sterling Infrastructure authorized a new $400 million stock repurchase program on November 12, 2025, effective for 24 months, replacing a prior program.
- At the time of replacement, the previous program had $81 million of remaining capacity.
- Actual share repurchases were approximately $74.2 million in 2025, $43.8 million in 2023, $43.8 million in 2022, and $70.6 million in 2021.
Share Issuance
- In June 2025, Sterling Infrastructure issued $55 million in common stock as part of the consideration for the acquisition of CEC Facilities Group.
- Sterling Infrastructure's shares outstanding increased by 2.11% in 2023 from 2022.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2025, Sterling Infrastructure announced the acquisition of CEC Facilities Group for a total of $505 million, comprising $450 million in cash and $55 million in Sterling Common Stock.
- This acquisition, completed in Q3 2025, aimed to significantly expand Sterling's E-Infrastructure capabilities, particularly in electrical and mechanical services for data centers and manufacturing.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to approximately $77.31 million in 2025, $50.92 million in 2024, $31.26 million in 2023, $17.92 million in 2022, and $80.95 million in 2021.
- The capital expenditures are primarily focused on supporting its E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building Solutions segments.
Peer Outperformance in Construction & Engineering
STRL has outperformed 93% of its 28 Construction & Engineering peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is FIX. Construction & Engineering ranks 1st of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Construction & Engineering constituents that STRL has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
33%
of 33 industry peers · -25.9% return
3Y
87%
of 30 industry peers · 273.4% return
5Y
93%
of 28 industry peers · 944.4% return
Construction & Engineering peers with revenue growth within 4pp of STRL's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | Sterling Infrastructure | 36.0% | 15.7x | -25.9% | 273.4% | 944.4% | — |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | 36.5% | 23.5x | 14.4% | 486.7% | 1083.7% | +139pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Construction & Engineering is STRL's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering ← | 29 | -12.8% | 78.4% | 144.7% | FIX 1084% · STRL 944% · AGX 620% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 28.7% | 38.5% | 123.2% | MATX 149% · KEX 123% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 12.2% | 58.9% | 107.9% | ALSN 278% · WAB 230% · CAT 216% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -7.4% | 61.7% | 59.6% | ATI 980% · FTAI 885% · HWM 598% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 6.3% | 50.5% | 38.7% | CRS 887% · MLI 333% · SYM 274% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 17.2% | 41.9% | 38.4% | DXPE 356% · AIT 215% · URI 202% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 37.9% | 59.1% | 33.8% | CSX 57% · UNP 46% · NSC 34% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 21.0% | 37.1% | 28.3% | CXW 235% · OPLN 162% · CACI 120% |
| Building Products | 34 | -3.2% | 12.5% | 21.7% | MOD 793% · GFF 380% · TT 142% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.7% | 17.8% | 7.7% | XPO 276% · R 265% · ARCB 26% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 29.7% | 26.2% | 3.1% | TILE 170% · PBI 166% · HNI 48% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 23.0% | -3.6% | 1.0% | CSW 125% · CSL 83% · DD 74% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -5.2% | 68.2% | -2.8% | POWL 1633% · VRT 667% · BE 564% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -14.9% | 3.1% | -12.6% | EXLS 60% · BR 21% · MMS -12% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -49.8% | 13.7% | -19.8% | BCO 70% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -16.9% | -20.8% | HURN 224% · FCN 35% · BAH 11% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 17.3% | -6.1% | -21.8% | BLBD 184% · DE 106% · TTC 19% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -29.1% | 25.0% | -25.8% | GEO 210% · CLH 173% · RSG 96% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 10.5% | 55.1% | -28.2% | LTM 3048% · UAL 136% · DAL 126% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -23.0% | -5.0% | -37.3% | FDX 86% · EXPD 60% · CHRW 57% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 21.6% | -6.2% | -42.7% | ADP 50% · FA 22% · PAYX 13% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -13.2% | 46.3% | -53.7% | UBER 54% · CAR -54% · LYFT -62% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -48.6% | -62.5% | -86.1% | JOBY -48% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.7 |
| Rev LTM | 11,226 |
| Op Inc LTM | 759 |
| FCF LTM | 424 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 491 |
| CFO LTM | 598 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 603 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 25.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 45.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 51.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.7 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 28.8 |
| P/CFO | 19.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-Infrastructure Solutions | 1,467 | 924 | 937 | 905 | 469 |
| Transportation Solutions | 641 | 784 | 631 | 543 | 628 |
| Building Solutions | 383 | 408 | 404 | 322 | 317 |
| Total | 2,490 | 2,116 | 1,972 | 1,769 | 1,414 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-Infrastructure Solutions | 346 | 203 | 141 | 121 | 80 |
| Transportation Solutions | 78 | 51 | 42 | 27 | 20 |
| Building Solutions | 39 | 54 | 46 | 37 | 33 |
| Earn-out Income (Expense) | 1 | -5 | 1 | ||
| Acquisition Related Costs | -8 | -0 | -1 | -1 | -4 |
| Corporate General and Administrative (G&A) Expense | -49 | -38 | -22 | ||
| Corporate | -24 | -22 | |||
| Total | 406 | 265 | 206 | 160 | 107 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-Infrastructure Solutions | 1,870 | 958 | 924 | 880 | 773 |
| Corporate | 342 | 642 | 386 | 137 | 33 |
| Building Solutions | 240 | 239 | 246 | 178 | 143 |
| Transportation Solutions | 182 | 178 | 222 | 247 | 283 |
| Total | 2,634 | 2,017 | 1,777 | 1,442 | 1,231 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $283.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/18/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -71.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $462.15 | $551.65 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -38.6% | -48.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 76.1% | 93.1% |
| Downside Capture | 450.20 | 344.18 |
| Upside Capture | 249.66 | 296.94 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 45.2% | 47.4% |
STRL Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 5.08 | 3.44 | 2.20 | 3.91 | 3.42 | 2.20 |
| Up Beta | 2.37 | 0.44 | -2.23 | 3.75 | 3.61 | 2.10 |
| Down Beta | 4.04 | 5.52 | 5.19 | 3.47 | 3.21 | 1.70 |
| Up Capture | 312% | 252% | 115% | 537% | 933% | 7287% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 28 | 58 | 128 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 620% | 360% | 343% | 276% | 181% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 25 | 36 | 68 | 123 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | -27.9% | 93.1% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.8% | 17.4% | 0.42 | 50.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 43.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 25.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | -2.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 20.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | 65.5% | 61.1% | 1.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.1% | 17.6% | 0.51 | 51.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 43.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 13.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 22.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | 43.4% | 55.8% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.1% | 0.58 | 50.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 43.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 13.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | -3.9% | -27.1% | |
| 8/3/2026 | -11.4% | -13.6% | -25.4% |
| 5/4/2026 | 52.2% | 64.0% | 80.7% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -2.6% | -2.1% | -15.4% |
| 8/4/2025 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.2% | 10.0% | 16.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 52.2% | 64.0% | 80.7% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -27.1% | -25.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | -3.9% | -27.1% | |
| 8/3/2026 | -11.4% | -13.6% | -25.4% |
| 5/4/2026 | 52.2% | 64.0% | 80.7% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -2.6% | -2.1% | -15.4% |
| 8/4/2025 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.2% | 10.0% | 16.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.6% | 6.4% | 11.6% |
| 8/5/2024 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | 15.8% | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| 2/26/2024 | 18.1% | 23.8% | 25.4% |
| 11/6/2023 | -15.9% | -11.0% | -10.3% |
| 8/7/2023 | 22.3% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| 5/1/2023 | 7.1% | 12.5% | 22.6% |
| 2/28/2023 | 3.7% | 8.7% | -1.2% |
| 11/1/2022 | -0.3% | 12.3% | 8.6% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.4% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 5/2/2022 | 0.5% | -3.6% | 6.0% |
| 3/1/2022 | 5.0% | -1.4% | -1.0% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.7% | 17.5% | 5.8% |
| 8/2/2021 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 6.7% |
| 5/3/2021 | 10.7% | 8.2% | 12.3% |
| 3/2/2021 | -15.6% | -7.8% | 0.1% |
| 11/3/2020 | -6.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 52.2% | 64.0% | 80.7% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -27.1% | -25.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/03/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization | Reported | 111.00 Mil | 112.00 Mil | 113.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Non-cash stock-based compensation | Reported | 38.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Intangible asset amortization | Reported | 39.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Acquisition related costs | Reported | 16.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Earn-out expense (income) | Reported | 10.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 CEC Revenue | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 1.00 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 88.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 4.63 Bil | 4.68 Bil | 4.73 Bil | 14.8% | Raised | Guidance: 4.08 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 94.0% | ||||||
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 905.00 Mil | 910.50 Mil | 916.00 Mil | 8.2% | Raised | Guidance: 841.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 970.00 Mil | 975.50 Mil | 981.00 Mil | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: 903.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest expense (income), net | Reported | -4.00 Mil | -3.00 Mil | -2.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Loss on extinguishment of debt | Reported | 1.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Income tax expense | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 201.50 Mil | 203.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Income tax impact of adjustments | Reported | -25.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 596.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 604.00 Mil | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 545.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 675.00 Mil | 679.00 Mil | 683.00 Mil | 9.3% | Raised | Guidance: 621.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share Growth | Reported | 101.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 19.16 | 19.29 | 19.42 | 9.9% | Raised | Guidance: 17.55 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 21.7 | 21.83 | 21.96 | 9.2% | Raised | Guidance: 20 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Weighted average common shares outstanding - Diluted | Reported | 31.10 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 4.00 Bil | 4.08 Bil | 4.15 Bil | 8.7% | Raised | Guidance: 3.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 829.00 Mil | 841.50 Mil | 854.00 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 816.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 891.00 Mil | 903.50 Mil | 916.00 Mil | 5.3% | Raised | Guidance: 858.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 536.00 Mil | 545.50 Mil | 555.00 Mil | 4.3% | Raised | Guidance: 523.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 612.00 Mil | 621.50 Mil | 631.00 Mil | 6.8% | Raised | Guidance: 582.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 17.25 | 17.55 | 17.85 | 4.3% | Raised | Guidance: 16.83 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 19.7 | 20 | 20.3 | 6.8% | Raised | Guidance: 18.73 for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.70 Bil | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 20.0% | Raised | Guidance: 3.12 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 801.00 Mil | 816.00 Mil | 831.00 Mil | 35.2% | Raised | Guidance: 603.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 843.00 Mil | 858.00 Mil | 873.00 Mil | 33.5% | Raised | Guidance: 642.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 513.00 Mil | 523.00 Mil | 533.00 Mil | 39.7% | Raised | Guidance: 374.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 572.00 Mil | 582.00 Mil | 592.00 Mil | 34.9% | Raised | Guidance: 431.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 16.5 | 16.83 | 17.15 | 40.8% | Raised | Guidance: 11.95 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 18.4 | 18.73 | 19.05 | 36.2% | Raised | Guidance: 13.75 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.05 Bil | 3.12 Bil | 3.20 Bil | 31.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.38 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 587.00 Mil | 603.50 Mil | 620.00 Mil | 34.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 450.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 626.00 Mil | 642.50 Mil | 659.00 Mil | 31.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 488.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 365.00 Mil | 374.50 Mil | 384.00 Mil | 37.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 272.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 422.00 Mil | 431.50 Mil | 441.00 Mil | 33.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 323.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 11.65 | 11.95 | 12.25 | 35.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.8 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 13.45 | 13.75 | 14.05 | 31.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.44 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/7/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolf, Mark D | General Counsel, Corporate Sec | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 888.00 | 2,500 | 2,220,000 | 24,985,656 | Form |
| 2 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 497.57 | 50,000 | 24,878,635 | 144,591,144 | Form |
| 3 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 453.48 | 50,000 | 22,674,175 | 154,453,306 | Form |
| 4 | Wilson, Dwayne Andree | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 405.95 | 1,260 | 511,496 | 4,988,715 | Form | |
| 5 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 416.21 | 47,592 | 19,808,281 | 162,568,830 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolf, Mark D | General Counsel, Corporate Sec | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 888.00 | 2,500 | 2,220,000 | 24,985,656 | Form |
| 2 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 497.57 | 50,000 | 24,878,635 | 144,591,144 | Form |
| 3 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 453.48 | 50,000 | 22,674,175 | 154,453,306 | Form |
| 4 | Wilson, Dwayne Andree | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 405.95 | 1,260 | 511,496 | 4,988,715 | Form | |
| 5 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 416.21 | 47,592 | 19,808,281 | 162,568,830 | Form |
| 6 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 408.42 | 52,408 | 21,404,365 | 178,962,598 | Form |
| 7 | Dill, Julie | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 384.28 | 4,500 | 1,729,246 | 6,860,494 | Form | |
| 8 | Wilson, Dwayne Andree | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 412.36 | 1,200 | 494,832 | 5,587,062 | Form | |
| 9 | O'Brien, Dana C | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 410.00 | 2,000 | 820,000 | 4,714,180 | Form | |
| 10 | O'Brien, Dana C | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 395.00 | 2,000 | 790,000 | 5,331,710 | Form | |
| 11 | Wilson, Dwayne Andree | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 350.00 | 2,860 | 1,001,000 | 5,162,150 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/4/2026