MasTec (MTZ)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $219.09 | Market Cap: $17.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
MasTec (MTZ)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $219.09Market Cap: $17.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Renewable Energy Transition, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 64% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% | |
| Key risksMTZ key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a limited number of key customers and [2] project margin and timeline pressures due to volatile material costs and supply chain disruptions. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Renewable Energy Transition, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 64% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksMTZ key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a limited number of key customers and [2] project margin and timeline pressures due to volatile material costs and supply chain disruptions. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why MasTec (MTZ) stock moved by 20.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Multiple Analyst Upgrades and Raised Price Targets: Throughout the period, MasTec received several positive analyst revisions. For instance, Truist Financial raised its price target to $270.00 from $253.00 on December 18, 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating. Similarly, Goldman Sachs reiterated a 'Buy' rating and increased its price target to $245 from $227 on November 20, 2025, which contributed to a 3.3% jump in the stock. Other firms like Mizuho, Robert W. Baird, Stifel, Keybanc, and Roth Capital also increased their price objectives, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future performance.
2. Strong Q2 and Q3 2025 Financial Results and Upbeat Guidance: MasTec reported robust financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025. In Q2 2025, reported on July 31, 2025, the company announced record revenue of $3.54 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $13.9 billion and $14.0 billion. Third-quarter results, released on October 30, 2025, continued to show strength with a record quarterly revenue of $4.0 billion, up 22% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.48, exceeding analyst estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTZ Return | 6% | 35% | -8% | -11% | 80% | 57% | 233% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 36% | 7% | 22% | 33% | 378% | 1283% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTZ Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 53% | 33% | 42% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTZ Max Drawdown | -64% | -1% | -31% | -44% | -17% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -3% | -22% | -12% | -7% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EME, ACM, APG, VMI, CDNL. See MTZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 315 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 815 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EME, ACM, APG, VMI, CDNL
In The Past
MasTec's stock fell -61.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2023. A -61.0% loss requires a 156.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| 03312020 | MTZ | MasTec | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 32.3% | 186.3% | -11.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| 03312020 | MTZ | MasTec | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 32.3% | 186.3% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MasTec
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 157.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.5 |
| Rev LTM | 13,762 |
| Op Inc LTM | 583 |
| FCF LTM | 572 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 548 |
| CFO LTM | 660 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 739 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.5 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.5 |
| P/E | 34.8 |
| P/CFO | 22.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 185.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 102.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.1% | -0.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.0% | -3.3% | -4.0% |
| 2/28/2025 | -2.2% | -11.6% | -10.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.8% | 15.2% | 15.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | -0.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| 3/1/2024 | 3.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.0% | 2.1% | 28.9% |
| 8/4/2023 | -17.7% | -22.2% | -17.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.8% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -8.1% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.4% | 15.2% | 28.9% |
| Max Negative | -17.7% | -22.2% | -36.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |