Nextpower (NXT)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $93.04 | Market Cap: $14.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Nextpower (NXT)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $93.04Market Cap: $14.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment. | Key risksNXT key risks include [1] its challenging expansion into the competitive inverter and power conversion market where failures could damage its brand and [2] a heavy revenue concentration in the U.S. Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment. |
| Key risksNXT key risks include [1] its challenging expansion into the competitive inverter and power conversion market where failures could damage its brand and [2] a heavy revenue concentration in the U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Nextpower (NXT) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2027 Earnings and Raised Full-Year Guidance Offset by Margin Compression.
Nextpower reported robust fiscal Q2 2027 results on October 28, 2026, with revenue of $1.11 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.07 billion by 4% and representing a 22.5% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS also surpassed expectations at $1.31 against a $1.10 consensus, marking a 19.2% beat. Management subsequently raised its fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance to a range of $4.20 billion to $4.45 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $4.61 to $4.87. These positive financial results initially propelled the stock upward, with a 10.50% jump to $87.66 on November 2, 2026, following the earnings release, and closing near $92.57. However, the GAAP gross margin for fiscal Q2 2027 eased to 31.1% from 32.4% in the prior year, and the operating margin declined by 1.3 percentage points year-over-year to 18.7%, indicating margin pressure despite revenue growth. This margin compression tempered the overall positive sentiment and contributed to the stock remaining largely within its recent range despite strong top-line performance.
2. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.
Despite the earnings beat, analyst sentiment showed a cautious tone with several firms adjusting their price targets downward, even while maintaining generally positive ratings. On October 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its target from $136.00 to $134.00, Needham from $149.00 to $143.00, and Susquehanna from $150.00 to $145.00. The consensus rating for Nextpower remained a "Moderate Buy" with an average target price ranging from approximately $139.00 to $143.00, suggesting continued long-term confidence but a more conservative near-term outlook. This cautious recalibration of price targets by analysts, alongside concerns about valuation, likely counteracted some of the positive momentum from the strong earnings report, contributing to the stock's largely stable trend.
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Nextpower (NXT) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2027 Earnings and Raised Full-Year Guidance Offset by Margin Compression.
Nextpower reported robust fiscal Q2 2027 results on October 28, 2026, with revenue of $1.11 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.07 billion by 4% and representing a 22.5% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS also surpassed expectations at $1.31 against a $1.10 consensus, marking a 19.2% beat. Management subsequently raised its fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance to a range of $4.20 billion to $4.45 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $4.61 to $4.87. These positive financial results initially propelled the stock upward, with a 10.50% jump to $87.66 on November 2, 2026, following the earnings release, and closing near $92.57. However, the GAAP gross margin for fiscal Q2 2027 eased to 31.1% from 32.4% in the prior year, and the operating margin declined by 1.3 percentage points year-over-year to 18.7%, indicating margin pressure despite revenue growth. This margin compression tempered the overall positive sentiment and contributed to the stock remaining largely within its recent range despite strong top-line performance.
2. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.
Despite the earnings beat, analyst sentiment showed a cautious tone with several firms adjusting their price targets downward, even while maintaining generally positive ratings. On October 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its target from $136.00 to $134.00, Needham from $149.00 to $143.00, and Susquehanna from $150.00 to $145.00. The consensus rating for Nextpower remained a "Moderate Buy" with an average target price ranging from approximately $139.00 to $143.00, suggesting continued long-term confidence but a more conservative near-term outlook. This cautious recalibration of price targets by analysts, alongside concerns about valuation, likely counteracted some of the positive momentum from the strong earnings report, contributing to the stock's largely stable trend.
3. Significant Insider Selling Activity.
Insider selling occurred during the period, with several executives disposing of shares. Notably, CEO Daniel S. Shugar sold 67,636 shares in multiple tranches on August 10, 2026, at weighted average prices between $102.39 and $103.91, totaling approximately $6.9 million. Additionally, in the ninety days leading up to late October 2026, insiders collectively sold 100,431 shares valued at approximately $10.04 million. This substantial insider selling activity, particularly exceeding the $5 million threshold, could signal a lack of strong conviction from within the company, potentially creating a headwind for the stock and contributing to its sideways movement over the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.4% change in NXT stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.87 | 91.13 | 1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,559 | 3,630 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.5% | 16.4% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.8 | 23.1 | 1.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 151 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXT | 1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | -5.6% | 52.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.5% change in NXT stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 119.13 | 91.13 | -23.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,603 | 3,630 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 16.4% | -0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.9 | 23.1 | -22.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 151 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXT | -23.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 55.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.6% | 45.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.0% change in NXT stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.22 | 91.13 | -10.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,373 | 3,630 | 7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.1% | 16.4% | -4.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.0 | 23.1 | -11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 151 | -1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXT | -10.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 50.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.4% | 45.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 162.2% change in NXT stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.76 | 91.13 | 162.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 3,630 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 23.1 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 42 | 151 | -72.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXT | 162.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 33.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.4% | 35.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXT Return | - | - | 54% | -22% | 138% | 5% | 199% |
| Peers Return | -28% | 15% | -32% | -39% | 40% | -40% | -71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXT Win Rate | - | - | 55% | 42% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 57% | 45% | 42% | 55% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXT Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -49% | -27% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -53% | -61% | -63% | -54% | -65% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARRY, FSLR, SHLS, FTCI, ENPH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Nextpower's stock fell -23.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Nextpower's stock fell -23.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Nextpower (NXT)
Nextpower (NXT) is a leading provider of intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions designed for utility-scale and ground-mounted solar projects worldwide. The company's core technology enables solar panels to precisely follow the sun's movement across the sky, significantly optimizing energy production by up to 25% compared to fixed-tilt systems. This sophisticated tracking, coupled with proprietary independent row technology and advanced AI-driven software, also helps lower operating costs and enhances the overall reliability of solar power plants.
Operating within the rapidly expanding global utility-scale solar market, Nextpower capitalizes on the decreasing cost of solar energy and increasing worldwide demand for renewable power and decarbonization efforts. Its solutions are widely adopted by major large-scale solar projects in mature markets and are increasingly gaining traction in developing regions. Nextpower serves a customer base primarily consisting of Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) firms, alongside solar project developers and owners across six continents. With approximately 70 GW of its systems shipped and a strong market leadership position, NXT demonstrates robust growth with firm orders totaling $2.1 billion as of December 2022.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogies for Nextpower (NXT):
- Intel for utility-scale solar farms
- NVIDIA for solar energy optimization
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Intelligent Independent Row Solar Trackers: Physical systems that enable individual rows of solar panels to move independently, following the sun's movement to optimize energy production in utility-scale solar projects.
- Integrated Software Solutions: Advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence technologies that further optimize the performance and capabilities of their solar tracker products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Nextpower (NXT) primarily sells its intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions to other companies.
Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Engineering, Procurement and Construction firms (EPCs)
- Solar project developers
- Solar project owners
The provided background information does not name specific customer companies.
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Flex Ltd. (FLEX)
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Dan Shugar, Chief Executive Officer and Founder
Dan Shugar founded Nextpower (originally Nextracker) in July 2013 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer since then. His career in the solar industry began in 1988, holding senior leadership positions across multiple solar companies. Prior to Nextpower, he was Chief Executive Officer of Solaria Corporation, a solar panel manufacturing company, from January 2010 to June 2013. Shugar co-founded PowerLight Corporation in 1996, which was later acquired by SunPower Corporation for $332 million in 2007. He also served as President of SunPower Corporation from 2007 to 2009. Nextracker was acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015 for $330 million before its IPO in 2023.
Chuck Boynton, Chief Financial Officer
Chuck Boynton was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Nextpower in March 2024, with his role becoming effective in May 2024. Before joining Nextpower as CFO, he served on the company's Board of Directors from February 2023 to March 2024. Boynton previously held the CFO position at Logitech International S.A. and served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Plantronics, Inc.
Howard Wenger, President
Howard Wenger has served as President of Nextpower since February 2022. He began his career in the solar industry in 1984 and has held numerous leadership and board positions. Wenger also served as President of Solaria Corporation from May 2020 to October 2021.
Marco Miller, COO and Co-founder
Marco Miller is the Chief Operating Officer and a Co-founder of Nextpower.
Bruce Ledesma, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer
Bruce Ledesma has served as Nextpower's Chief Legal & Compliance Officer since January 1, 2025. He previously held various President titles from May 2019 through December 2024. Ledesma was also the co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Roble Capital, LLC, a private investment fund, from June 2013 to July 2014.
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Key Risks to Nextpower (NXT)
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Dependency on Flex Ltd.: Nextpower was acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015 and heavily relies on Flex for crucial aspects of its operations, including "design, manufacturing and supply chain services" through Flex’s global network. Additionally, Flex provides "strong financial backing" that has supported Nextpower's market penetration and optimized supply chain. Any change in Flex's strategic priorities, financial health, or its willingness/ability to continue providing these essential services could significantly impact Nextpower's operations and financial stability.
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Intense Competition and the Need to Maintain Technological Leadership: Nextpower operates in a competitive market and prides itself on its "proprietary technology" and "next generation" intelligent independent row tracking system. The company's ability to maintain its leading position and capture market share is dependent on the continued superiority of its technology compared to "linked row, other independent tracker products and fixed-tilt systems." A failure to innovate, or the emergence of more advanced or cost-effective solutions from competitors, could erode its market advantage.
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Reliance on Continued Growth and Favorable Market Conditions in the Utility-Scale Solar Sector: Nextpower's business is directly tied to the growth of the utility-scale solar market. This growth is driven by factors such as the declining cost of solar energy, increasing demand for renewable energy, and aggressive decarbonization targets globally. While the background describes a positive outlook, a significant slowdown, reversal, or disruption in these market trends, or changes in governmental policies and incentives supporting solar energy, could adversely affect the demand for Nextpower's solar tracker solutions.
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The addressable market for Nextpower's main products, solar trackers, is estimated to be a $71 billion cumulative opportunity from 2020 to 2030, representing approximately 682 GW of solar capacity installed over that time period. This market size is for the global solar tracking market, excluding China.
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Nextpower (NXT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the expanding global solar energy market:
- Strong and Expanding Backlog: Nextpower has a robust and growing backlog of orders, which stood at over $4.5 billion as of Q2 fiscal year 2025 and subsequently grew to greater than $5 billion by Q3 fiscal year 2026. A significant portion of this backlog is anticipated to convert into revenue within the next eight quarters, providing a solid foundation for future sales.
- Robust Demand in the Utility-Scale Solar Market: The company is benefiting from the increasing global demand for utility-scale solar projects, fueled by solar energy's position as the lowest-cost and most scalable power generation technology. Nextpower is experiencing strong demand in both its established U.S. market, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of its business, and international markets such as the Middle East and Africa.
- Diversification through New Products and Services: Nextpower is actively expanding its offerings beyond core solar trackers into new business lines, including frames, foundations, electrical components, and advanced software solutions. The company is already securing customer orders for new products like NX Horizon, NXTR 1.5, NX Horizon Low Carbon Tracker, NX Hail Pro-75, and NX Foundation technologies. Approximately one-third of its 2030 revenue is expected to be generated by these new products and services, including its recently launched agrivoltaics solution.
- Differentiated Competitive Positioning and Innovation: Nextpower's intelligent independent row tracking systems, coupled with integrated software leveraging advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence, offer superior energy production and reduced operating costs. The company's focus on innovation, including solutions for extreme weather resilience (such as patented hail and wind technologies), enhances its competitive edge and drives customer adoption due to a "flight to quality."
- Strategic International Expansion: Nextpower is actively expanding its global footprint, notably through ventures like Nextpower Arabia, which is set to supply 2.25 GW of systems to a major Saudi project and aims for up to 12 GW of annual local capacity. The adoption of its solar tracker technology is increasing in developing solar markets, contributing to revenue growth from its operations across the United States, Mexico, Spain, Europe, India, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and Brazil.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2023-2026)
Share Repurchases
- Nextpower's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program on January 27, 2026, authorizing the company to buy back up to $500 million of its Class A common stock over a three-year period.
Share Issuance
- Nextpower completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in February 2023, issuing 26.6 million shares of Class A common stock at $24 per share, which raised $638 million.
Outbound Investments
- Nextpower made an aggregate cash consideration of approximately $116.6 million (net of cash acquired) for business acquisitions, including Origami and Fracsun, as reported in its Q3 FY26 results (ended December 31, 2025).
- The company acquired Bentek Corporation for $78 million in May 2023.
- In January 2026, Nextpower completed the formation of Nextpower Arabia, a joint venture with Abunayyan Holding, contributing $2.7 million in cash to establish the new entity in the quarter ended December 31, 2025, to accelerate solar plant deployment in the Middle East and North Africa region.
Capital Expenditures
- Nextpower's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $33.9 million, representing a 450.67% increase from $6.2 million in fiscal year 2024.
- For the trailing twelve months ending September 26, 2025, capital expenditures were approximately $45.75 million.
- Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (FY2027) are forecasted to be $65.85 million, primarily focused on increasing capacity, replacing equipment, supporting new product development, improving information systems, and expanding the manufacturing footprint.
Peer Outperformance in Electrical Components & Equipment
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -8.2% | 92.7% | 152.3% | STRL 1265% · FIX 1201% · AGX 751% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 47.3% | 44.2% | 146.6% | MATX 183% · KEX 151% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 16.0% | 61.2% | 102.0% | ALSN 260% · WAB 224% · CAT 221% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 52 | -12.4% | 62.8% | 70.6% | ATI 975% · FTAI 967% · HWM 604% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 20.9% | 40.4% | 58.3% | DXPE 413% · AIT 222% · URI 216% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 6.2% | 55.1% | 36.5% | CRS 888% · MLI 337% · SYM 271% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 33.9% | 56.1% | 34.2% | CSX 55% · UNP 43% · NSC 34% |
| Diversified Support Services | 32 | 21.0% | 43.3% | 33.6% | CXW 240% · OPLN 169% · CACI 137% |
| Building Products | 32 | -6.2% | 13.0% | 24.0% | GFF 368% · TT 141% · JCI 118% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | R 273% · XPO 263% · ARCB 27% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment ← | 37 | -6.2% | 74.9% | 5.4% | POWL 1808% · VRT 796% · BE 511% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 14.6% | -0.6% | -5.4% | CSW 104% · CSL 81% · DD 67% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 25.6% | 20.4% | -11.2% | PBI 174% · TILE 165% · HNI 55% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -16.4% | 0.3% | -14.2% | EXLS 64% · BR 13% · G -13% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -10.7% | -19.3% | HURN 270% · FCN 31% · BAH 11% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 12.4% | -5.6% | -21.0% | DE 101% · TTC 22% · AGCO 6% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -54.3% | 16.3% | -27.6% | BCO 67% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -33.0% | 23.7% | -29.1% | GEO 228% · CLH 153% · RSG 95% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 1.0% | 52.5% | -29.7% | LTM 2790% · UAL 128% · DAL 115% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -24.7% | -8.8% | -39.0% | FDX 86% · EXPD 74% · CHRW 53% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 21.2% | -9.1% | -42.3% | ADP 48% · FA 28% · PAYX 9% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -18.8% | 39.7% | -63.3% | UBER 56% · LYFT -63% · CAR -67% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -53.4% | -61.7% | -86.5% | JOBY -51% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,198 |
| Op Inc LTM | 59 |
| FCF LTM | 135 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 118 |
| CFO LTM | 177 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 224 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 45.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $91.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/09/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -41.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $82.51 | $106.84 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 10.4% | -14.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.2% | 67.5% |
| Downside Capture | 254.88 | 291.15 |
| Upside Capture | 248.87 | 248.59 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 45.1% | 49.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.86 | 2.65 | 3.04 | 3.26 | 2.71 | 1.40 |
| Up Beta | 0.49 | 2.28 | 2.86 | 2.69 | 2.31 | 1.25 |
| Down Beta | 2.73 | 1.90 | 2.14 | 2.69 | 2.75 | 1.24 |
| Up Capture | 372% | 331% | 350% | 443% | 536% | 497% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 58 | 124 | 367 |
| Down Capture | 258% | 256% | 310% | 266% | 175% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 35 | 68 | 127 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXT | -8.1% | 67.5% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.7% | 17.3% | 0.42 | 45.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 50.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | 35.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | -12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 2.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | 21.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXT | 24.5% | 61.0% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.7% | 17.6% | 0.50 | 35.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 33.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 16.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 17.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXT | 11.6% | 61.0% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.1% | 0.58 | 35.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 33.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 16.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 17.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -7.3% | 1.6% | -11.8% |
| 5/12/2026 | 8.8% | 1.4% | -4.5% |
| 1/27/2026 | 13.3% | 13.2% | 0.9% |
| 10/23/2025 | 8.7% | 9.7% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -9.3% | -13.7% | 4.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 11.9% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
| 1/28/2025 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 13.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 24.6% | 30.2% | 19.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 12.2% | 9.7% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -13.7% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.8% | 30.2% | 40.7% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -14.2% | -13.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -7.3% | 1.6% | -11.8% |
| 5/12/2026 | 8.8% | 1.4% | -4.5% |
| 1/27/2026 | 13.3% | 13.2% | 0.9% |
| 10/23/2025 | 8.7% | 9.7% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -9.3% | -13.7% | 4.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 11.9% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
| 1/28/2025 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 13.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 24.6% | 30.2% | 19.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.4% | -14.2% | -13.2% |
| 5/14/2024 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 40.7% |
| 1/31/2024 | 24.8% | 22.4% | 26.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | -1.8% | -9.1% | 4.4% |
| 7/26/2023 | 12.4% | 6.2% | -2.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | 6.6% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 12.2% | 9.7% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -13.7% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.8% | 30.2% | 40.7% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -14.2% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 06/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 424B4 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 06/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q2 2027 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | ||||||
| Q3 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | |||||||
| 2027 Revenue | Reported | 4.20 Bil | 4.33 Bil | 4.45 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 4.25 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 890.00 Mil | 915.00 Mil | 940.00 Mil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 900.00 Mil for 2027 | |
| 2027 GAAP Net Income | Reported | 559.00 Mil | 578.50 Mil | 598.00 Mil | 4.0% | Raised | Guidance: 556.50 Mil for 2027 | |
| 2027 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.62 | 3.75 | 3.87 | 6.1% | Raised | Guidance: 3.53 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 4.61 | 4.74 | 4.87 | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 4.58 for 2027 | |
Prior: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Revenue | Reported | 4.10 Bil | 4.25 Bil | 4.40 Bil | 7.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 eBOS Revenue | Reported | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 870.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 930.00 Mil | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 862.50 Mil for 2027 | |
| 2027 GAAP Net Income | Reported | 540.00 Mil | 556.50 Mil | 573.00 Mil | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 530.00 Mil for 2027 | |
| 2027 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.42 | 3.53 | 3.64 | 4.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.38 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 4.42 | 4.58 | 4.73 | 4.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.4 for 2027 | |
Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Revenue | Reported | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 14.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.46 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 825.00 Mil | 862.50 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 5.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 820.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 GAAP Net Income | Reported | 501.00 Mil | 530.00 Mil | 559.00 Mil | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 532.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.19 | 3.38 | 3.56 | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.48 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 4.21 | 4.4 | 4.59 | 2.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.31 for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.42 Bil | 3.46 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.38 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 810.00 Mil | 820.00 Mil | 830.00 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 795.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Net Income | Reported | 525.00 Mil | 532.50 Mil | 540.00 Mil | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 514.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.43 | 3.48 | 3.53 | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.36 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 4.26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 4.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.15 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boynton, Charles D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 79.98 | 4,500 | 359,910 | 28,312,920 | Form |
| 2 | Blunden, Julia | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 84.10 | 3,692 | 310,501 | 230,605 | Form | |
| 3 | Blunden, Julia | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 88.08 | 3,723 | 327,922 | 566,707 | Form | |
| 4 | Thomas, Brandi Elizabeth | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 91.25 | 7,415 | 676,619 | 722,152 | Form | |
| 5 | Shugar, Daniel S | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 103.07 | 67,636 | 6,971,025 | 89,784,676 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boynton, Charles D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 79.98 | 4,500 | 359,910 | 28,312,920 | Form |
| 2 | Blunden, Julia | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 84.10 | 3,692 | 310,501 | 230,605 | Form | |
| 3 | Blunden, Julia | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 88.08 | 3,723 | 327,922 | 566,707 | Form | |
| 4 | Thomas, Brandi Elizabeth | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 91.25 | 7,415 | 676,619 | 722,152 | Form | |
| 5 | Shugar, Daniel S | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 103.07 | 67,636 | 6,971,025 | 89,784,676 | Form |
| 6 | Blunden, Julia | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 97.22 | 2,289 | 222,537 | 720,886 | Form | |
| 7 | Boynton, Charles D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 151.79 | 4,500 | 683,055 | 54,416,715 | Form |
| 8 | Miller, Nicholas Marco | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 156.00 | 22,427 | 3,498,612 | 29,046,264 | Form |
| 9 | Wenger, Howard | President | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 130.25 | 62,670 | 8,162,614 | 55,546,286 | Form |
| 10 | Shugar, Daniel S | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 134.72 | 26,077 | 3,513,093 | 125,480,768 | Form |
| 11 | Ledesma, Bruce | Chief Legal & Compliance Ofc | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 134.72 | 3,248 | 437,571 | 33,158,634 | Form |
| 12 | Wenger, Howard | President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 121.02 | 9,051 | 1,095,352 | 60,453,242 | Form |
| 13 | Wenger, Howard | President | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 127.32 | 16,090 | 2,048,579 | 64,752,660 | Form |
| 14 | Miller, Nicholas Marco | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 127.32 | 24,511 | 3,120,741 | 28,205,582 | Form |
| 15 | Shugar, Daniel S | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 105.17 | 59,456 | 6,253,223 | 78,495,433 | Form |
| 16 | Shugar, Daniel S | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 101.04 | 39,892 | 4,030,688 | 59,107,390 | Form |
| 17 | Boynton, Charles D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 100.45 | 4,500 | 452,025 | 28,734,627 | Form |
| 18 | Watkins, William D | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 118.57 | 5,000 | 592,850 | 1,396,399 | Form | |
| 19 | Bennett, David P | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 88.08 | 33,725 | 2,970,498 | 11,535,573 | Form |
| 20 | Boynton, Charles D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 89.33 | 4,500 | 401,985 | 25,955,635 | Form |
| 21 | Watkins, William D | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 91.85 | 10,000 | 918,520 | 1,541,001 | Form | |
| 22 | Shugar, Daniel S | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 91.28 | 47,743 | 4,357,846 | 57,037,461 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
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Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Electrical Components & Equipment Resources |
| EC&M (Electrical Construction & Maintenance) |
| Electrical Contracting News (ECN) |
| EE Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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