Noodles & Co (NDLS)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $14.34 | Market Cap: $85.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Noodles & Co (NDLS)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $14.34Market Cap: $85.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -104% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 283% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 137% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% Key risksNDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -104% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 283% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 137% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% |
| Key risksNDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Noodles & Co (NDLS) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Anticipation of Weaker Fiscal Q3 2026 Performance Following Strong Q2 Results.
Noodles & Company's stock experienced a downward trend despite reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on July 24, 2026, which showed an EPS of $0.18 against an estimated loss of $0.05, a beat of $0.23 per share. Revenue also surpassed expectations at $127.04 million compared to a $119.40 million consensus. However, the market's focus shifted to fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 29, 2026. Analysts are estimating a loss of $0.14 per share for fiscal Q3 2026 on projected revenue of $117.30 million, indicating a significant expected decline from Q2's positive performance and likely contributing to investor caution.
2. Ongoing Restaurant Portfolio Optimization and Closures.
The company continued its strategy of portfolio optimization, which involved significant restaurant closures. Following 33 company-owned and 9 franchised restaurant closures in fiscal year 2025, Noodles & Company projected an additional 30 to 35 company-owned and five franchised restaurant closures for fiscal year 2026. While this strategy is intended for long-term operational health, the ongoing reduction in the restaurant count can signal short-term revenue challenges and may create investor uncertainty regarding the company's immediate growth prospects.
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Noodles & Co (NDLS) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Anticipation of Weaker Fiscal Q3 2026 Performance Following Strong Q2 Results.
Noodles & Company's stock experienced a downward trend despite reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on July 24, 2026, which showed an EPS of $0.18 against an estimated loss of $0.05, a beat of $0.23 per share. Revenue also surpassed expectations at $127.04 million compared to a $119.40 million consensus. However, the market's focus shifted to fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 29, 2026. Analysts are estimating a loss of $0.14 per share for fiscal Q3 2026 on projected revenue of $117.30 million, indicating a significant expected decline from Q2's positive performance and likely contributing to investor caution.
2. Ongoing Restaurant Portfolio Optimization and Closures.
The company continued its strategy of portfolio optimization, which involved significant restaurant closures. Following 33 company-owned and 9 franchised restaurant closures in fiscal year 2025, Noodles & Company projected an additional 30 to 35 company-owned and five franchised restaurant closures for fiscal year 2026. While this strategy is intended for long-term operational health, the ongoing reduction in the restaurant count can signal short-term revenue challenges and may create investor uncertainty regarding the company's immediate growth prospects.
3. Mixed to Negative Analyst Sentiment.
During the period, analyst sentiment remained largely cautious or negative. While Wall Street Zen upgraded Noodles & Company from a "hold" to a "buy" rating on August 1, 2026, other firms like Weiss Ratings reiterated a "sell (d-)" rating on October 2, 2026. Zacks Research also raised its rating to "hold" on October 2, 2026. Overall, Noodles & Company currently holds a consensus "Reduce" rating from analysts, with one analyst recommending a "sell" and another a "hold." This lack of strong, widespread analyst conviction and the prevailing cautious outlook likely weighed on the stock's performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.1% change in NDLS stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -2.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.95 | 14.49 | -3.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 495 | 496 | 0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -2.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -3.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.4% | 18.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.7% | 23.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 69.5% change in NDLS stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.55 | 14.49 | 69.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 495 | 496 | 0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 71.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 69.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 69.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 17.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.0% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 185.0% change in NDLS stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 192.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.08 | 14.49 | 185.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 495 | 496 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 192.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 185.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 185.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 4.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.2% | 6.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.4% change in NDLS stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.68 | 14.49 | -26.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 517 | 496 | -4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -26.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 16.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 46.6% | 16.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NDLS Return | 15% | -39% | -43% | -82% | 22% | 132% | -79% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -38% | 37% | 98% | -39% | 23% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NDLS Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 17% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 35% | 53% | 67% | 38% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NDLS Max Drawdown | -32% | -54% | -70% | -82% | -65% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -50% | -31% | -26% | -57% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CAKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NDLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Noodles & Co's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NDLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Noodles & Co's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Noodles & Co (NDLS)
Noodles & Company (NDLS) is a restaurant concept company that develops and operates fast-casual restaurants. Founded in 1995, the company focuses on providing a convenient and approachable dining experience within the restaurant industry.
The company's menu primarily features cooked-to-order dishes, with its main products encompassing a wide variety of noodles and pasta, complemented by soups, salads, and appetizers. Noodles & Company serves a broad customer base seeking quick, customizable, and freshly prepared meals. As of December 28, 2021, the company operated 448 restaurants across 29 states, comprising both 372 company-owned and 76 franchise locations.
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Here are a few brief analogies for Noodles & Co (NDLS):
Chipotle for noodles and pasta.
Panera Bread, but with a focus on cooked-to-order noodle and pasta dishes.
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- Noodles and Pasta dishes: Cooked-to-order main courses featuring various noodle and pasta types.
- Soups: Hot, savory liquid dishes.
- Salads: Fresh, uncooked vegetable-based dishes, often with proteins.
- Appetizers: Small dishes served before the main course.
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) primarily sells its cooked-to-order dishes directly to individual consumers through its fast-casual restaurant locations. As a restaurant chain, it does not have major corporate customers in the traditional business-to-business sense.
The company serves a diverse individual customer base, which can be broadly categorized as:
- Lunchtime Diners: Individuals, including office workers, students, and shoppers, seeking a quick, convenient, and satisfying meal during the midday hours.
- Families and Dinner Guests: Customers looking for a casual, relatively affordable, and family-friendly dining option for dinner, offering a variety of dishes to appeal to different tastes.
- Young Adults and Students: Demographics often seeking customizable, diverse, and reasonably priced meal options that cater to various dietary preferences and provide a step up from traditional fast food.
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- McLane Foodservice (a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A, BRK.B)
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Joseph Christina
President and Chief Executive Officer
Joseph Christina became President and Chief Executive Officer of Noodles & Company on August 31, 2025. He joined the company in February 2025 as President and Chief Operating Officer. Before joining Noodles & Company, Mr. Christina was Chief Executive Officer of Tijuana Flats from 2022 to 2024. Prior to that, he served as EVP, U.S. Operations, and then CEO, President, and board member of Church's Chicken from 2013 to 2022. His career started at Burger King, where he worked for 29 years in various roles including Restaurant Manager, Franchise Owner, VP of Global Operations and Training, and SVP of Franchise Operations for the West Division.
Mike Hynes
Chief Financial Officer
Mike Hynes joined Noodles & Company as Chief Financial Officer in July 2023, bringing over 25 years of finance and accounting experience. Before Noodles & Company, he held multiple leadership roles at Ruth's Hospitality Group, including Vice President of Finance and Accounting for Ruth's Chris Steak House, where he oversaw investor relations, SEC reporting, strategic planning, and financial analysis. Earlier in his career, Mr. Hynes worked at firms including RSM and Deloitte. Ruth's Hospitality Group was acquired by Darden Restaurants in 2023. He is a Certified Public Accountant.
Frank Rodriguez
Senior Vice President of Operations
Frank Rodriguez joined Noodles & Company as Vice President of Operations, West in October 2019 and was promoted to Vice President, Company Operations in June 2025, then to Senior Vice President of Operations, effective June 3, 2026. He has over 35 years of restaurant industry experience. Prior to Noodles & Company, Mr. Rodriguez held multiple senior leadership roles, including Vice President of Operations at Bojangles' Restaurants, Inc. and Regional Director of Operations with Whataburger Restaurants, LLC.
Kathy Lockhart
Chief Accounting Officer
Kathy Lockhart has served as Chief Accounting Officer of Noodles & Company since August 2020, following 14 years as the company's Vice President and Controller. She has extensive experience from leadership roles at Einstein Bros., Boston Market, VICORP, and Ultimate Electronics. Ms. Lockhart is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and a Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA).
Corey Kline
Executive Vice President of Technology
Corey Kline is the Executive Vice President of Technology at Noodles & Company. He joined the company in September 2011 as Director of IT and was promoted to VP in 2016, and then to Executive Vice President of Technology in March 2021. Mr. Kline previously held roles at Famous Dave's, Accenture, Jefferson Wells, and IBM, with a background in enterprise applications and risk management.
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The key risks to Noodles & Company's business (NDLS) primarily revolve around its ability to sustain operational improvements and manage its financial obligations.
- Maintaining Comparable Sales Growth and Margin Expansion: A significant risk for Noodles & Company is the difficulty in sustaining its recent comparable sales growth and continuing to expand restaurant contribution margins. The company's earnings recovery is heavily reliant on these factors. Challenges such as food inflation, higher labor costs, and weaker customer traffic could quickly impede margin recovery. The success of promotional strategies and the consistent launch of successful new menu items are crucial to maintaining this growth.
- Debt and Refinancing Risk: Noodles & Company carries a notable amount of debt, with its credit facility maturing in the third quarter of 2027. The company is actively evaluating refinancing options and other strategic alternatives to manage this debt. This represents a significant balance sheet and refinancing risk that could impact the company's financial stability.
- Achieving Operational, Strategic, and Financial Goals: The company faces the overarching risk of not successfully achieving its stated operational, strategic, and financial goals. These goals include improving restaurant operations, increasing restaurant revenue, comparable restaurant sales, net income, and adjusted EBITDA. The success of initiatives such as menu innovation, enhancing menu structure, improving operational effectiveness, and refining pricing strategies is critical, and there is no guarantee these strategies will be entirely successful.
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The clear emerging threat for Noodles & Co is the proliferation and increasing sophistication of ghost kitchens and virtual brands.
These entities operate without traditional physical dining rooms, focusing solely on delivery and sometimes pickup. They leverage shared kitchen spaces and optimized digital ordering platforms to offer a wide variety of cuisines, often at lower operational costs compared to traditional brick-and-mortar fast-casual restaurants like Noodles & Co. This business model fundamentally disrupts the traditional restaurant industry by:
- Undercutting overhead: Eliminating the need for prime real estate, front-of-house staff, and extensive build-outs.
- Maximizing efficiency: Streamlining operations for delivery-only fulfillment.
- Rapid menu innovation: The ability to quickly launch and test new concepts and cuisines based on demand, including specialized noodle or pasta dishes that directly compete with Noodles & Co's core offerings.
- Directly competing on convenience: By focusing purely on delivery, they offer ultimate convenience to customers seeking prepared meals, directly challenging Noodles & Co's takeout and delivery segments.
This shift represents a new distribution and operational paradigm in the food service industry, analogous to how Netflix's streaming model disrupted Blockbuster's physical rental business or Uber's platform disrupted traditional taxi services, by offering a potentially more efficient and convenient alternative for a significant portion of the target market.
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) operates in the U.S. fast-casual restaurant market, offering a menu that includes a variety of noodle and pasta dishes, soups, and salads. The addressable markets for their main products and services in the United States are as follows:
- Fast Casual Restaurants Market (U.S.): The United States fast-casual restaurant market was approximately USD 48.50 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.40% between 2026 and 2035, reaching an estimated value of USD 90.19 billion by 2035.
- Pasta and Noodles Market (U.S.): The U.S. pasta and noodles market generated a revenue of USD 5,919.2 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 8,187.3 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2026 to 2033.
- Soup Market (U.S.): The U.S. soup market is anticipated to reach US$6.95 billion by 2034, up from US$5.03 billion in 2025, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.66% from 2026 to 2034.
- Prepared Salads Market (U.S.): The market for prepared salads in the U.S. was valued at US$9.8 billion in 2023.
- Appetizers: Null
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategies focusing on enhancing existing restaurant performance, leveraging digital channels, and optimizing its menu offerings. Based on recent earnings reports and company statements, the key drivers include:
- Comparable Sales Growth through Increased Traffic and Average Check: Noodles & Company has demonstrated consistent comparable sales growth, fueled by both an increase in customer traffic and a rise in the average check size per order. For instance, in Q2 2026, system-wide comparable sales increased by 10.3%, with company-owned restaurants seeing an 11.4% rise. This was driven by a 7.6% increase in company comparable traffic and a 3.8% increase in average check, which included a 2.1% effective price increase. The company expects full-year 2026 comparable restaurant sales growth of 8%-11%.
- Expansion of Digital Channels and Loyalty Program: The company is actively focusing on growing its digital presence and leveraging its Noodles Rewards program. Digital channel comparable sales increased by 18% in Q2 2026, indicating a strong shift towards online orders. This growth is attributed to attracting new guests through relevant brand messaging, food news, social content, and smarter media investments, rather than solely relying on discounts. The Noodles Rewards program, which had approximately 5.6 million members in 2024, allows for targeted and personalized offers to drive engagement and repeat business.
- Menu Innovation and Culinary Changes: Noodles & Company aims to enhance its appeal and attract customers through ongoing menu innovation. In 2025, the company planned to introduce five new contemporary dishes and make culinary changes to four other existing dishes. These menu enhancements contribute to an improved guest experience and can lead to increased sales.
- Strategic Portfolio Optimization: The company is undertaking a strategy of closing underperforming restaurants, which has resulted in the transfer of sales to nearby, higher-performing locations. This "portfolio optimization" has a positive impact on comparable sales. Management estimated that sales transfer boosted comparable sales by about 250 to 300 basis points in Q2 2026. For the full year 2026, Noodles & Company expects to close 30 to 35 company-owned and 5 franchise restaurants, with this optimization anticipated to drive a 200-300 basis point uplift in comparable sales.
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Share Repurchases
- Noodles & Company announced a share repurchase program in July 2023, authorizing the repurchase of up to $5.0 million of its Class A common stock.
- During 2023, the Company repurchased 1,731,952 shares of its Class A common stock under this program.
Share Issuance
- In May 2023, Noodles & Company filed for a 2023 Stock Incentive Plan (S-8 registration).
- On August 21, 2026, Noodles & Company filed a $100 million mixed securities shelf registration statement, allowing for future securities offerings.
- In fiscal year 2025, the company experienced a modest share issuance resulting in a +1.83% change in shares.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $33.89 million in fiscal year 2025, $52.04 million in fiscal year 2024, and $28.77 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The company projects capital expenditures of $9.5 million to $10.5 million for fiscal year 2026, with a focus on restaurant development.
- In 2024, Noodles & Company opened ten new company-owned restaurants, and planned to open two new company-owned restaurants in 2025.
Peer Outperformance in Restaurants
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -23.0% | 47.1% | 75.6% | CVSA 233% · LRN 136% · GHC 110% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | -7.2% | 45.1% | 25.5% | PHM 158% · TOL 144% · GRBK 143% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 9.4% | 45.5% | 19.7% | RCL 266% · MAR 157% · LIND 147% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -9.1% | 66.9% | -0.7% | SGI 46% · MHK -36% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -16.8% | 16.2% | -1.3% | MUSA 224% · PAG 126% · ORLY 117% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -16.9% | 14.8% | -5.4% | HD -3% · LOW -5% · FND -65% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 9 | -13.7% | 35.5% | -13.5% | HRB 142% · FTDR 101% · SCI 31% |
| Restaurants ← | 36 | -8.9% | -0.9% | -20.7% | EAT 418% · CAKE 189% · TXRH 113% |
| Footwear | 9 | 68.8% | 43.9% | -23.5% | DECK 27% · SHOO 6% · CROX -24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -17.3% | -14.2% | -26.0% | ARMK 124% · GPC 7% · POOL -58% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -20.5% | -7.5% | -34.5% | GOLF 79% · HAS 50% · BC -18% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 6.3% | 14.7% | -38.3% | |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 0.9% | 20.7% | -39.3% | RL 244% · TPR 224% · KTB 68% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | -2.7% | -1.9% | -39.6% | ANF 313% · TJX 128% · ROST 113% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 8.3% | 1.0% | -42.1% | OSW 165% · LTH 140% · PLNT -33% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 39 | -9.3% | -10.2% | -43.7% | MOD 1216% · GTX 238% · BWA 50% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 0.1% | 74.2% | -49.0% | BBY 1% · GME -49% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -18.3% | -20.3% | -49.4% | MCRI 79% · BYD 14% · RRR 12% |
| Broadline Retail | 13 | -3.7% | 34.2% | -52.7% | EBAY 78% · AMZN 48% · OLLI 26% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 24 | -17.3% | -13.6% | -61.3% | ULTA 67% · ASO 43% · DKS 24% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -26.4% | -44.6% | -72.2% | GM 59% · TSLA 13% · F -3% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -33.4% | -23.3% | -78.9% | GRMN 108% · SONO -45% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Noodles Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Noodles Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,463 |
| Op Inc LTM | 91 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 26 |
| CFO LTM | 206 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 495 | 503 | 509 | |
| Franchising royalties and fees, and other | 8 | |||
| Restaurant revenue | 467 | |||
| Total | 495 | 503 | 509 | 475 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | -32 | -5 | -1 |
| Total | -32 | -5 | -1 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 262 | 325 |
| Total | 262 | 325 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $14.49 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/28/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.84 | $11.22 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.7% | 29.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 69.8% | 101.3% |
| Downside Capture | 311.43 | 100.92 |
| Upside Capture | 142.35 | 200.06 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 20.1% | 8.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.25 | 0.37 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 0.28 | 1.00 |
| Up Beta | -1.43 | -0.28 | -0.03 | 0.33 | -0.17 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | -0.38 | 1.29 | -1.14 | 0.88 | -0.93 | 0.73 |
| Up Capture | -1% | -57% | 149% | 158% | 183% | 81% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 26 | 63 | 122 | 339 |
| Down Capture | 165% | 248% | 212% | 76% | 51% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 27 | 38 | 63 | 129 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 157.3% | 101.3% | 1.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -3.8% | 19.2% | -0.33 | 8.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 12.7% | 0.72 | 8.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.8% | 28.3% | 0.05 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.4% | 20.6% | 1.80 | 2.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 13.9% | -0.05 | 11.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.4% | 43.4% | -0.68 | 5.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -32.8% | 82.1% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.7% | 24.1% | 0.15 | 26.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.9% | 0.74 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.6% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 23.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 11.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -9.1% | 72.6% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 31.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.3% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 9.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/26/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/24/2026 | 24.4% | 42.3% | 21.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| 1/12/2026 | 14.6% | 13.3% | -32.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.3% | 13.0% | 40.3% |
| 8/13/2025 | -29.2% | -32.9% | -35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 13.7% | -14.1% | -10.0% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 24.4% | 117.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 13.3% | 13.0% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 46.4% | 117.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -32.9% | -47.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/24/2026 | 24.4% | 42.3% | 21.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| 1/12/2026 | 14.6% | 13.3% | -32.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.3% | 13.0% | 40.3% |
| 8/13/2025 | -29.2% | -32.9% | -35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 13.7% | -14.1% | -10.0% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 24.4% | 117.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -15.8% | -27.3% | -47.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.8% | 17.1% | -4.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | 24.3% | 24.3% | 13.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | -8.6% | -26.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/7/2023 | 12.7% | 46.4% | 50.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | -3.0% | -13.8% | -16.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | -19.3% | -22.1% | -29.6% |
| 3/8/2023 | -9.2% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| 11/3/2022 | -3.6% | 7.1% | -6.4% |
| 7/27/2022 | 3.6% | 7.6% | 11.2% |
| 4/27/2022 | 13.3% | 14.7% | 25.3% |
| 2/23/2022 | -12.0% | -18.3% | -26.5% |
| 10/27/2021 | -0.3% | -2.9% | -13.1% |
| 8/3/2021 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| 4/29/2021 | 8.1% | 6.3% | 15.2% |
| 2/25/2021 | -0.1% | 9.3% | 12.6% |
| 10/28/2020 | -6.6% | -8.4% | 10.6% |
| 8/6/2020 | -0.3% | 12.7% | 3.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 13.3% | 13.0% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 46.4% | 117.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -32.9% | -47.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/17/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/26/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 8.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Restaurant Level Contribution Margins | Reported | 16.0% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 16.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 51.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 54.00 Mil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 51.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Stock-based Compensation Expense | Reported | 2.50 Mil | 2.75 Mil | 3.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 24.00 Mil | 24.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 485.00 Mil | 492.50 Mil | 500.00 Mil | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 490.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 34.00 Mil | 36.00 Mil | 38.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | Reported | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | 11.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 9.00 Mil | 9.50 Mil | 10.00 Mil | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | ||||
| 2026 Restaurant Level Contribution Margin | Reported | 15.5% | 16.25% | 17.0% | ||||
| 2026 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 51.50 Mil | 53.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 24.00 Mil | 24.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 483.00 Mil | 490.50 Mil | 498.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | Reported | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | 11.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 9.50 Mil | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Restaurant Closures | Reported | 30 | 32.5 | 35 | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.25% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Restaurant Level Contribution Margin | Reported | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 12.2% for 2025 | |
| 2025 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 48.00 Mil | 48.50 Mil | 49.00 Mil | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 49.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 28.00 Mil | 28.50 Mil | 29.00 Mil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 28.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Total Revenue | Reported | 492.00 Mil | 493.50 Mil | 495.00 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 491.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Interest Expense | Reported | 11.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 12.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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