Noodles (NDLS)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $13.88 | Market Cap: $81.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Noodles (NDLS)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $13.88Market Cap: $81.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 303% Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 167%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 122% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is 0.0% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1882% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% Key risksNDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 303% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 167%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 122% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is 0.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1882% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
| Key risksNDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Noodles (NDLS) stock has gained about 140% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance. Noodles & Company reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026, which exceeded market expectations and led to a significantly raised full-year outlook. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased 9.1% (9.4% for company-owned and 8.0% for franchise restaurants), demonstrating strong momentum. The net loss narrowed substantially to $3.4 million (or $0.58 loss per diluted share) from a $9.1 million net loss in fiscal Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to $7.7 million, compared to $2.4 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Following these results, management increased its full-year 2026 projections, targeting revenue between $483 million and $498 million and adjusted EBITDA between $32.5 million and $37.5 million, reflecting confidence in continued operational improvements and a positive financial trajectory.
2. Strong Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings and Positive Momentum. The company reported solid fiscal Q4 2025 financial results on March 25, 2026, which served as an initial catalyst for the stock's upward trend. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 6.6%, including a 7.3% increase for company-owned restaurants. The net loss improved to $6.8 million from $9.7 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.6 million compared to $4.0 million in fiscal Q4 2024. The restaurant contribution margin also saw significant improvement, rising to 14.1% from 11.2% in the comparable prior-year quarter. This positive earnings report and initial strong 2026 guidance contributed to a 55% single-day surge in the stock price on March 26, 2026.
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Noodles (NDLS) stock has gained about 140% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance. Noodles & Company reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026, which exceeded market expectations and led to a significantly raised full-year outlook. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased 9.1% (9.4% for company-owned and 8.0% for franchise restaurants), demonstrating strong momentum. The net loss narrowed substantially to $3.4 million (or $0.58 loss per diluted share) from a $9.1 million net loss in fiscal Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to $7.7 million, compared to $2.4 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Following these results, management increased its full-year 2026 projections, targeting revenue between $483 million and $498 million and adjusted EBITDA between $32.5 million and $37.5 million, reflecting confidence in continued operational improvements and a positive financial trajectory.
2. Strong Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings and Positive Momentum. The company reported solid fiscal Q4 2025 financial results on March 25, 2026, which served as an initial catalyst for the stock's upward trend. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 6.6%, including a 7.3% increase for company-owned restaurants. The net loss improved to $6.8 million from $9.7 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.6 million compared to $4.0 million in fiscal Q4 2024. The restaurant contribution margin also saw significant improvement, rising to 14.1% from 11.2% in the comparable prior-year quarter. This positive earnings report and initial strong 2026 guidance contributed to a 55% single-day surge in the stock price on March 26, 2026.
3. Strategic Portfolio Optimization and Enhanced Profitability. Noodles & Company implemented a strategic restaurant portfolio optimization plan, including the closure of underperforming locations. In fiscal Q1 2026, 20 company-owned restaurants and 3 franchise restaurants were closed, with plans for a total of 30-35 company-owned and 5 franchised restaurant closures throughout fiscal year 2026. This strategy aimed to enhance financial performance by significantly transferring sales to nearby units, thereby boosting average unit volume and improving restaurant-level margins. This optimization contributed approximately 250 basis points to comparable sales growth and led to a substantial improvement in the restaurant contribution margin, which increased by 460 basis points to 14.9% in fiscal Q1 2026 compared to 10.3% in fiscal Q1 2025.
4. Reverse Stock Split and Nasdaq Compliance. A 1-for-8 reverse stock split became effective on February 18, 2026. This action was taken to bring the company into compliance with Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. While not a direct driver of operational performance, the reverse stock split helped stabilize the company's listing on a major exchange, potentially reducing uncertainty and improving investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 137.8% change in NDLS stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 139.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.87 | 13.96 | 137.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 494 | 495 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 139.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 137.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 137.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | -5.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.5% | -2.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 148.6% change in NDLS stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 150.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.61 | 13.96 | 148.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 494 | 495 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 150.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 148.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 148.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 4.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 3.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 124.5% change in NDLS stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.22 | 13.96 | 124.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 496 | 495 | -0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 130.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 124.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 124.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 6.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.5% | 3.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -47.9% change in NDLS stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.80 | 13.96 | -47.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 523 | 495 | -5.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.2 | -44.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -47.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -47.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 16.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.4% | 15.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NDLS Return | 15% | -39% | -43% | -82% | 22% | 138% | -79% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -38% | 37% | 98% | -39% | 17% | 15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NDLS Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 17% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 35% | 53% | 67% | 38% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NDLS Max Drawdown | -32% | -54% | -70% | -82% | -65% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -50% | -31% | -26% | -57% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CAKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NDLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Noodles's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NDLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Noodles's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Noodles (NDLS)
Noodles & Company (NDLS) is a fast-casual restaurant concept company that develops and operates dining establishments primarily across the United States. Founded in 1995 and based in Broomfield, Colorado, the company provides customers with a convenient and quick service dining experience focused on freshly prepared meals.
The company's main product offerings center around a diverse menu of cooked-to-order dishes, with a particular emphasis on various noodles and pasta. Complementing these core items, Noodles & Company also serves a selection of soups, salads, and appetizers. As of December 28, 2021, the company operated a total of 448 restaurants across 29 states, serving its primary customers through both 372 company-owned and 76 franchise locations.
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Chipotle for noodles and pasta.
A Panera Bread focused on noodle and pasta dishes.
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- Noodles and Pasta: Cooked-to-order dishes featuring a variety of noodle and pasta options with different sauces and ingredients.
- Soups: A selection of freshly prepared hot soups offered as part of the restaurant's menu.
- Salads: Various fresh, crisp salads available, often with the option to add proteins.
- Appetizers: Smaller dishes designed to be eaten before the main course or as a light snack.
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) operates fast-casual restaurants and, as such, sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other companies. Its major customers can be categorized as:
- Individual Diners: This broad category includes the general public seeking a convenient and customizable meal option for lunch or dinner.
- Families: With a diverse menu offering pasta, noodles, soups, and salads, Noodles & Company often caters to families looking for a casual dining experience that can satisfy varying tastes and preferences.
- Lunch Customers / Office Workers: Due to its fast-casual format and quick service, the company frequently serves individuals looking for a speedy and satisfying lunch option, including those on a work break.
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Joseph (Joe) Christina President, Chief Executive Officer
Joseph D. Christina was promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer of Noodles & Company effective August 31, 2025, having joined the company as President and Chief Operating Officer in February 2025. He brings over 30 years of experience in the restaurant industry. Prior to Noodles, Mr. Christina served as CEO of Church's Chicken for six years, leading the brand to significant year-over-year growth, and most recently as CEO of Tijuana Flats, where he revitalized the brand and drove expansion. He began his career at Burger King, progressing through various roles over 29 years, including restaurant manager, franchisee, Vice President of Global Operations and Training, and Senior Vice President of Franchise Operations for the West Division. Information regarding whether he sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms is not available in the provided context.
Mike Hynes Chief Financial Officer
Mike Hynes joined Noodles & Company as Chief Financial Officer in July 2023, bringing over 25 years of finance and accounting experience. Before his role at Noodles, he held multiple leadership positions at Ruth's Hospitality Group, including Vice President of Finance and Accounting at Ruth's Chris Steak House, where he was responsible for investor relations, SEC reporting, strategic planning, and financial analysis. Earlier in his career, Mr. Hynes worked at firms such as RSM and Deloitte and is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA). Information regarding whether he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms is not available in the provided context.
Stephen Kennedy Executive Vice President - Marketing
Stephen Kennedy was appointed Executive Vice President of Marketing for Noodles & Company, with his tenure starting on November 18, 2024.
Corey Kline Executive Vice President of Technology
Corey Kline joined Noodles & Company in September 2011 and was promoted to Executive Vice President of Technology. He previously held roles at Famous Dave's, Accenture, Jefferson Wells, and IBM, with a background in enterprise applications and risk management. Mr. Kline holds a BA in Mathematics with a minor in Computer Science from Luther College. His forward-looking approach to technology has been instrumental in developing the company's digital consumer platform and spearheading data security and compliance efforts.
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- Intense Competition and Declining Consumer Value Perception: Noodles & Company operates in a saturated fast-casual restaurant market, leading to intense competition. The company has experienced a decline in guest value perception, particularly during lunch, and has faced significant competitive discounting across the industry. This challenge has directly impacted sales and traffic, necessitating ongoing menu and operational adjustments to regain momentum with consumers.
- Poor Financial Health and Profitability Issues: The company exhibits notable financial distress, characterized by persistent negative net and operating margins. Noodles & Company has reported net losses and has revised its revenue guidance downward. The company also carries a significant debt burden and has a deeply negative equity position, indicating a high financial risk. Higher food and labor costs further exacerbate margin pressures.
- Operational Challenges and Restaurant Underperformance: Noodles & Company has been actively closing underperforming restaurants, with plans for additional closures, leading to non-cash impairment charges. These closures highlight operational inefficiencies and the need for a substantial operational overhaul within the company. Furthermore, an unexpected and significant decline in third-party delivery sales has also negatively impacted results. The company has also experienced leadership transitions, which can introduce additional operational uncertainties.
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The addressable markets for Noodles & Company's main products and services are primarily within the U.S. fast-casual restaurant sector, with specific market sizes for noodles/pasta, soups, and salads.
The U.S. fast-casual restaurant market, which encompasses Noodles & Company's service offering, was valued at approximately $50.6 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $121.3 billion by 2032, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2023 to 2032. Another estimate indicates this market is expected to grow by $84.5 billion from 2025-2029, with a CAGR of 13.7%.
For its main product categories, the addressable market sizes in the U.S. are as follows:
- Noodles and Pasta: The U.S. pasta and noodles market was estimated at approximately $5.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $7.17 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another report estimates the U.S. pasta and noodles market size at $7.46 billion in 2025.
- Soups: The U.S. soup market was valued at $4.95 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2030. Other data suggests the U.S. soup market was around $5.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $6.94 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 3.6% between 2025 and 2033.
- Salads: The U.S. packaged salads market was estimated at $6.15 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another source indicates the U.S. packaged salads market was valued at $6.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $7.70 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.8%.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2024, Noodles & Company repurchased 1,731,952 shares of its common stock for approximately $5 million under the 2023 Share Repurchase Program, which was subsequently canceled.
- The number of shares outstanding decreased in 2023.
Share Issuance
- On February 18, 2026, Noodles & Company implemented a 1-for-8 reverse stock split.
- The CEO received an award of 250,000 restricted stock units (RSUs) in August 2025, vesting in four equal installments starting in August 2026.
- The number of shares outstanding increased by 1.64% in one year.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2025, expected capital expenditures were $12 million to $13 million.
- Capital expenditures in 2024 were $28.8 million, contributing to a negative free cash flow of -$21.2 million.
- In 2023, the company opened 18 new company-owned restaurants, with plans for 10-12 new company-owned restaurants in 2024, though the development pipeline was reduced due to increased costs and lower returns. The company also expects to open two new company-owned restaurants in 2025 and continue investing in technology improvements.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Noodles Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Noodles Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,389 |
| Op Inc LTM | 87 |
| FCF LTM | 27 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 20 |
| CFO LTM | 205 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 166 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 21.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.96 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/28/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.69 | $7.28 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.4% | 91.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 133.7% | 110.2% |
| Downside Capture | -282.65 | 43.84 |
| Upside Capture | 126.67 | 124.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -9.2% | 6.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.05 | 0.95 | -1.14 | 0.20 | 0.49 | 0.97 |
| Up Beta | -2.03 | 1.77 | 0.34 | -0.27 | 1.60 | 1.07 |
| Down Beta | 1.92 | 1.44 | -6.54 | -2.85 | -0.87 | 0.77 |
| Up Capture | -83% | 152% | 174% | 339% | 101% | 45% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 25 | 38 | 69 | 123 | 333 |
| Down Capture | -247% | -237% | -250% | 74% | 30% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 16 | 24 | 54 | 126 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 127.3% | 109.8% | 1.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 18.4% | 0.49 | 3.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 6.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | -1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 8.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 10.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -32.7% | 79.6% | -0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 27.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 26.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 23.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 12.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -15.9% | 71.5% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 31.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 30.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 14.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 27.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 9.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| 1/12/2026 | 14.6% | 13.3% | -32.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.3% | 13.0% | 40.3% |
| 8/13/2025 | -29.2% | -32.9% | -35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 13.7% | -14.1% | -10.0% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 24.4% | 117.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -15.8% | -27.3% | -47.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.3% | 46.4% | 117.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -32.9% | -47.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| 1/12/2026 | 14.6% | 13.3% | -32.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.3% | 13.0% | 40.3% |
| 8/13/2025 | -29.2% | -32.9% | -35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 13.7% | -14.1% | -10.0% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 24.4% | 117.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -15.8% | -27.3% | -47.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.8% | 17.1% | -4.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | 24.3% | 24.3% | 13.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | -8.6% | -26.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/7/2023 | 12.7% | 46.4% | 50.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | -3.0% | -13.8% | -16.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | -19.3% | -22.1% | -29.6% |
| 3/8/2023 | -9.2% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| 11/3/2022 | -3.6% | 7.1% | -6.4% |
| 7/27/2022 | 3.6% | 7.6% | 11.2% |
| 4/27/2022 | 13.3% | 14.7% | 25.3% |
| 2/23/2022 | -12.0% | -18.3% | -26.5% |
| 10/27/2021 | -0.3% | -2.9% | -13.1% |
| 8/3/2021 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| 4/29/2021 | 8.1% | 6.3% | 15.2% |
| 2/25/2021 | -0.1% | 9.3% | 12.6% |
| 10/28/2020 | -6.6% | -8.4% | 10.6% |
| 8/6/2020 | -0.3% | 12.7% | 3.7% |
| 6/17/2020 | 12.7% | 11.2% | 14.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.3% | 46.4% | 117.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -32.9% | -47.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/17/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 483.00 Mil | 490.50 Mil | 498.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | ||||
| 2026 Restaurant Level Contribution Margin | 15.5% | 16.25% | 17.0% | ||||
| 2026 General and Administrative Expenses | 50.00 Mil | 51.50 Mil | 53.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | 24.00 Mil | 24.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | 11.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 9.50 Mil | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Restaurant Closures | 30 | 32.5 | 35 | ||||
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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