Noodles (NDLS)
Market Price (9/26/2026): $12.76 | Market Cap: $75.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Noodles (NDLS)
Market Price (9/26/2026): $12.76Market Cap: $75.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.0% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 325% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 165% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% Key risksNDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 325% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 165% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% |
| Key risksNDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 9/16/2026
Noodles (NDLS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Results Drove Significant Stock Performance.
Noodles & Company reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 10.3%, building on the 9.1% growth from fiscal Q1 2026. Adjusted EBITDA saw a substantial 79% increase to $10.8 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025, and the net loss narrowed to $4 million from $17.6 million in the prior year.
2. Raised Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Guidance Signaled Continued Positive Outlook.
Following the strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company now anticipates total revenue between $485 million and $500 million, alongside comparable restaurant sales growth of 8% to 11%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also increased to a range of $34 million to $38 million. This upward revision reflected management's confidence in sustained operational improvements.
Show more
Noodles (NDLS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Results Drove Significant Stock Performance.
Noodles & Company reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 10.3%, building on the 9.1% growth from fiscal Q1 2026. Adjusted EBITDA saw a substantial 79% increase to $10.8 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025, and the net loss narrowed to $4 million from $17.6 million in the prior year.
2. Raised Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Guidance Signaled Continued Positive Outlook.
Following the strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company now anticipates total revenue between $485 million and $500 million, alongside comparable restaurant sales growth of 8% to 11%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also increased to a range of $34 million to $38 million. This upward revision reflected management's confidence in sustained operational improvements.
Show more
Updated on 9/16/2026
Noodles (NDLS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Results Drove Significant Stock Performance.
Noodles & Company reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 10.3%, building on the 9.1% growth from fiscal Q1 2026. Adjusted EBITDA saw a substantial 79% increase to $10.8 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025, and the net loss narrowed to $4 million from $17.6 million in the prior year.
2. Raised Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Guidance Signaled Continued Positive Outlook.
Following the strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company now anticipates total revenue between $485 million and $500 million, alongside comparable restaurant sales growth of 8% to 11%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also increased to a range of $34 million to $38 million. This upward revision reflected management's confidence in sustained operational improvements.
3. Portfolio Optimization and Margin Expansion Strategy Proved Effective.
The company's strategy of closing underperforming restaurants, with 30 to 35 company-owned and 5 franchised locations expected to close in fiscal 2026, has led to increased productivity in the remaining restaurants. This portfolio optimization, despite a shrinking footprint, contributed to significant margin expansion, with the restaurant contribution margin improving by 440 basis points to 17.2% in fiscal Q2 2026. The focus on a more efficient, higher-performing restaurant base is driving the company's earnings recovery.
Show less
Noodles (NDLS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Results Drove Significant Stock Performance.
Noodles & Company reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 10.3%, building on the 9.1% growth from fiscal Q1 2026. Adjusted EBITDA saw a substantial 79% increase to $10.8 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025, and the net loss narrowed to $4 million from $17.6 million in the prior year.
2. Raised Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Guidance Signaled Continued Positive Outlook.
Following the strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company now anticipates total revenue between $485 million and $500 million, alongside comparable restaurant sales growth of 8% to 11%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also increased to a range of $34 million to $38 million. This upward revision reflected management's confidence in sustained operational improvements.
3. Portfolio Optimization and Margin Expansion Strategy Proved Effective.
The company's strategy of closing underperforming restaurants, with 30 to 35 company-owned and 5 franchised locations expected to close in fiscal 2026, has led to increased productivity in the remaining restaurants. This portfolio optimization, despite a shrinking footprint, contributed to significant margin expansion, with the restaurant contribution margin improving by 440 basis points to 17.2% in fiscal Q2 2026. The focus on a more efficient, higher-performing restaurant base is driving the company's earnings recovery.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in NDLS stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 1.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.60 | 12.61 | 0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 495 | 496 | 0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.3% | 25.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 114.8% change in NDLS stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 118.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.87 | 12.61 | 114.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 494 | 496 | 0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 118.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 114.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 114.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.0% | -0.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.0% | 7.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 121.3% change in NDLS stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 126.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.70 | 12.61 | 121.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 495 | 496 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 126.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 121.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 121.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 3.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.8% | 6.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.3% change in NDLS stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.24 | 12.61 | -43.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 517 | 496 | -4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -39.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 6 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -43.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.8% | 16.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 32.7% | 16.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NDLS Return | 15% | -39% | -43% | -82% | 22% | 129% | -80% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -38% | 37% | 98% | -39% | 16% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NDLS Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 17% | 42% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 35% | 53% | 67% | 38% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NDLS Max Drawdown | -32% | -54% | -70% | -82% | -65% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -50% | -31% | -26% | -57% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CAKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/25/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NDLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Noodles's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NDLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Noodles's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Noodles (NDLS)
Noodles & Company (NDLS) is a fast-casual restaurant concept company that develops and operates dining establishments primarily across the United States. Founded in 1995 and based in Broomfield, Colorado, the company provides customers with a convenient and quick service dining experience focused on freshly prepared meals.
The company's main product offerings center around a diverse menu of cooked-to-order dishes, with a particular emphasis on various noodles and pasta. Complementing these core items, Noodles & Company also serves a selection of soups, salads, and appetizers. As of December 28, 2021, the company operated a total of 448 restaurants across 29 states, serving its primary customers through both 372 company-owned and 76 franchise locations.
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Chipotle for noodles and pasta.
A Panera Bread focused on noodle and pasta dishes.
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- Noodles and Pasta: Cooked-to-order dishes featuring a variety of noodle and pasta options with different sauces and ingredients.
- Soups: A selection of freshly prepared hot soups offered as part of the restaurant's menu.
- Salads: Various fresh, crisp salads available, often with the option to add proteins.
- Appetizers: Smaller dishes designed to be eaten before the main course or as a light snack.
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) operates fast-casual restaurants and, as such, sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other companies. Its major customers can be categorized as:
- Individual Diners: This broad category includes the general public seeking a convenient and customizable meal option for lunch or dinner.
- Families: With a diverse menu offering pasta, noodles, soups, and salads, Noodles & Company often caters to families looking for a casual dining experience that can satisfy varying tastes and preferences.
- Lunch Customers / Office Workers: Due to its fast-casual format and quick service, the company frequently serves individuals looking for a speedy and satisfying lunch option, including those on a work break.
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Joseph (Joe) Christina President, Chief Executive Officer
Joseph D. Christina was promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer of Noodles & Company effective August 31, 2025, having joined the company as President and Chief Operating Officer in February 2025. He brings over 30 years of experience in the restaurant industry. Prior to Noodles, Mr. Christina served as CEO of Church's Chicken for six years, leading the brand to significant year-over-year growth, and most recently as CEO of Tijuana Flats, where he revitalized the brand and drove expansion. He began his career at Burger King, progressing through various roles over 29 years, including restaurant manager, franchisee, Vice President of Global Operations and Training, and Senior Vice President of Franchise Operations for the West Division. Information regarding whether he sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms is not available in the provided context.
Mike Hynes Chief Financial Officer
Mike Hynes joined Noodles & Company as Chief Financial Officer in July 2023, bringing over 25 years of finance and accounting experience. Before his role at Noodles, he held multiple leadership positions at Ruth's Hospitality Group, including Vice President of Finance and Accounting at Ruth's Chris Steak House, where he was responsible for investor relations, SEC reporting, strategic planning, and financial analysis. Earlier in his career, Mr. Hynes worked at firms such as RSM and Deloitte and is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA). Information regarding whether he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms is not available in the provided context.
Stephen Kennedy Executive Vice President - Marketing
Stephen Kennedy was appointed Executive Vice President of Marketing for Noodles & Company, with his tenure starting on November 18, 2024.
Corey Kline Executive Vice President of Technology
Corey Kline joined Noodles & Company in September 2011 and was promoted to Executive Vice President of Technology. He previously held roles at Famous Dave's, Accenture, Jefferson Wells, and IBM, with a background in enterprise applications and risk management. Mr. Kline holds a BA in Mathematics with a minor in Computer Science from Luther College. His forward-looking approach to technology has been instrumental in developing the company's digital consumer platform and spearheading data security and compliance efforts.
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from a highly competitive market, ongoing financial struggles, and operational inefficiencies.
Here are the key risks to the business:
- Intense Competition and Declining Consumer Value Perception: Noodles & Company operates in a saturated fast-casual restaurant market, leading to intense competition. The company has experienced a decline in guest value perception, particularly during lunch, and has faced significant competitive discounting across the industry. This challenge has directly impacted sales and traffic, necessitating ongoing menu and operational adjustments to regain momentum with consumers.
- Poor Financial Health and Profitability Issues: The company exhibits notable financial distress, characterized by persistent negative net and operating margins. Noodles & Company has reported net losses and has revised its revenue guidance downward. The company also carries a significant debt burden and has a deeply negative equity position, indicating a high financial risk. Higher food and labor costs further exacerbate margin pressures.
- Operational Challenges and Restaurant Underperformance: Noodles & Company has been actively closing underperforming restaurants, with plans for additional closures, leading to non-cash impairment charges. These closures highlight operational inefficiencies and the need for a substantial operational overhaul within the company. Furthermore, an unexpected and significant decline in third-party delivery sales has also negatively impacted results. The company has also experienced leadership transitions, which can introduce additional operational uncertainties.
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The proliferation and increasing sophistication of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands specializing in similar fast-casual comfort food offerings. These models operate with significantly lower overhead, are designed for delivery-first consumption, and can potentially offer competitive pricing and convenience, directly challenging traditional brick-and-mortar restaurants like Noodles & Company, especially in the growing delivery segment of the market.
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The addressable markets for Noodles & Company's main products and services are primarily within the U.S. fast-casual restaurant sector, with specific market sizes for noodles/pasta, soups, and salads.
The U.S. fast-casual restaurant market, which encompasses Noodles & Company's service offering, was valued at approximately $50.6 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $121.3 billion by 2032, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2023 to 2032. Another estimate indicates this market is expected to grow by $84.5 billion from 2025-2029, with a CAGR of 13.7%.
For its main product categories, the addressable market sizes in the U.S. are as follows:
- Noodles and Pasta: The U.S. pasta and noodles market was estimated at approximately $5.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $7.17 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another report estimates the U.S. pasta and noodles market size at $7.46 billion in 2025.
- Soups: The U.S. soup market was valued at $4.95 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2030. Other data suggests the U.S. soup market was around $5.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $6.94 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 3.6% between 2025 and 2033.
- Salads: The U.S. packaged salads market was estimated at $6.15 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another source indicates the U.S. packaged salads market was valued at $6.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $7.70 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.8%.
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These strategies focus on menu innovation, leveraging its digital presence, and optimizing its restaurant portfolio.
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Noodles & Company:
* **Menu Innovation and Limited-Time Offers (LTOs):** The company plans to regularly introduce new menu items and successful limited-time offers to attract and excite customers. For example, the Steak Stroganoff LTO significantly exceeded sales forecasts, and a new Baked Alfredo with Grilled Chicken LTO is expected to perform strongly. These initiatives, including a broader menu transformation, aim to drive traffic and increase average checks.
* **Enhancement of the Digital Ecosystem and Loyalty Program:** With a significant portion of sales already coming from digital channels and loyalty members, Noodles & Company is focused on expanding its digital reach. Strategies include increasing active membership and frequency in its loyalty program, utilizing personalized data from a new customer data platform to boost conversion and frequency, and broadening digital marketing touchpoints, such as launching an SMS communication channel.
* **Strategic Unit Growth and Portfolio Optimization:** While strategically slowing short-term new company restaurant growth, Noodles & Company aims for stronger new unit growth in the future, including both company-owned and new franchise locations, particularly in Southern and Southwestern markets. This is coupled with a focus on "portfolio optimization," which involves closing underperforming restaurants to concentrate resources on locations with the strongest potential for top-line growth.
* **Strengthening Value Proposition and Strategic Pricing:** Noodles & Company plans to enhance its value proposition through initiatives like the "Delicious Duos" platform, which has already contributed to positive comparable restaurant sales. The company has also historically utilized pricing strategies to contribute to revenue and will continue to optimize its pricing in conjunction with its menu offerings and value perception.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2024, Noodles & Company repurchased 1,731,952 shares of its common stock for approximately $5 million under the 2023 Share Repurchase Program, which was subsequently canceled.
- The number of shares outstanding decreased in 2023.
Share Issuance
- On February 18, 2026, Noodles & Company implemented a 1-for-8 reverse stock split.
- The CEO received an award of 250,000 restricted stock units (RSUs) in August 2025, vesting in four equal installments starting in August 2026.
- The number of shares outstanding increased by 1.64% in one year.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2025, expected capital expenditures were $12 million to $13 million.
- Capital expenditures in 2024 were $28.8 million, contributing to a negative free cash flow of -$21.2 million.
- In 2023, the company opened 18 new company-owned restaurants, with plans for 10-12 new company-owned restaurants in 2024, though the development pipeline was reduced due to increased costs and lower returns. The company also expects to open two new company-owned restaurants in 2025 and continue investing in technology improvements.
Peer Outperformance in Restaurants
NDLS has trailed 100% of its 34 Restaurants peers over 5Y. Restaurants ranks 11th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Restaurants constituents that NDLS has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
100%
of 44 industry peers · 164.9% return
3Y
36%
of 42 industry peers · -35.4% return
5Y
0%
of 34 industry peers · -87.8% return
No Restaurants peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten NDLS by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is NDLS's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -24.4% | 74.2% | 64.0% | LINC 257% · CVSA 212% · PRDO 210% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -4.7% | 35.8% | 51.3% | GRBK 222% · PHM 164% · TOL 142% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 8.9% | 52.5% | 15.1% | SIG 35% · ASO 22% · DKS 17% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -26.0% | -3.6% | -1.4% | HVT 11% · LOW 0% · HD -1% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 18.8% | 46.8% | -1.9% | RCL 177% · MAR 141% · HLT 135% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -19.5% | -0.9% | -5.2% | MUSA 218% · PAG 121% · ORLY 106% |
| Distributors | 4 | -10.2% | -23.8% | -13.5% | ARMK 142% · GPC 22% · LKQ -49% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -4.9% | 26.7% | -15.8% | SGI 36% · LZB 0% · MHK -32% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -18.0% | 13.8% | -17.6% | HRB 95% · FTDR 75% · SCI 38% |
| Footwear | 10 | 55.9% | 53.4% | -18.1% | WEYS 174% · DECK 21% · SHOO 20% |
| Restaurants ← | 35 | -6.2% | -9.5% | -24.8% | EAT 301% · CAKE 137% · BH-A 104% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -22.7% | -17.9% | -38.8% | GOLF 74% · HAS 14% · MCFT -19% |
| Household Appliances | 17 | -7.5% | 16.0% | -41.2% | FLXS 209% · HBB 168% · KEQU 157% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -13.0% | -14.0% | -42.0% | MOD 1642% · GTX 269% · STRT 75% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | -3.4% | 19.8% | -42.6% | ANF 239% · URBN 136% · ROST 115% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 28 | -8.7% | 9.2% | -43.2% | RL 238% · TPR 228% · ELA 210% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -19.0% | -4.6% | -44.0% | OSW 134% · JAKK 123% · ESCA 24% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -16.8% | -25.3% | -48.6% | MCRI 96% · RRR 27% · BYD 16% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -7.4% | 39.4% | -49.5% | BBY 9% · GME -49% · UPBD -64% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | -3.9% | 15.9% | -55.6% | DDS 311% · EBAY 61% · AMZN 46% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -77.6% | -48.7% | -72.3% | GM 65% · TSLA 44% · F 26% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -10.9% | -15.3% | -74.0% | AXIL 2283% · GRMN 89% · SONO -49% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -36.0% | -44.4% | -79.4% | TLF 110% · BBW 68% · WINA 60% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Noodles Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Noodles Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,463 |
| Op Inc LTM | 91 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 26 |
| CFO LTM | 206 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 495 | 503 | 509 | |
| Franchising royalties and fees, and other | 8 | |||
| Restaurant revenue | 467 | |||
| Total | 495 | 503 | 509 | 475 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | -32 | -5 | -1 |
| Total | -32 | -5 | -1 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 262 | 325 |
| Total | 262 | 325 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.61 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/28/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -32.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.87 | $10.32 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -15.2% | 22.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 84.4% | 105.9% |
| Downside Capture | 285.35 | 49.72 |
| Upside Capture | 103.54 | 152.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 11.6% | 4.3% |
NDLS Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.73 | 1.49 | 0.93 | -0.10 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| Up Beta | -0.24 | 0.62 | -0.49 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 1.03 |
| Down Beta | 4.11 | -2.29 | 0.64 | -2.58 | -0.91 | 0.73 |
| Up Capture | -109% | 221% | 194% | 201% | 180% | 78% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 30 | 68 | 123 | 337 |
| Down Capture | 463% | 317% | 121% | -29% | 55% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 25 | 34 | 58 | 127 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | 158.7% | 105.8% | 1.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -7.2% | 19.5% | -0.51 | 6.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 13.0% | 0.98 | 4.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.7% | 29.3% | 0.46 | -1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.8% | 20.7% | 1.75 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 13.6% | 0.07 | 10.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.5% | 44.8% | -0.53 | 4.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -33.8% | 81.4% | -0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.6% | 24.1% | 0.15 | 26.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 25.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 23.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 52.6% | 0.41 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NDLS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDLS | -12.3% | 72.2% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 31.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.9% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 9.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/26/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/24/2026 | 24.4% | 42.3% | 21.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| 1/12/2026 | 14.6% | 13.3% | -32.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.3% | 13.0% | 40.3% |
| 8/13/2025 | -29.2% | -32.9% | -35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 13.7% | -14.1% | -10.0% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 24.4% | 117.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 13.3% | 13.0% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 46.4% | 117.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -32.9% | -47.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/24/2026 | 24.4% | 42.3% | 21.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| 1/12/2026 | 14.6% | 13.3% | -32.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.3% | 13.0% | 40.3% |
| 8/13/2025 | -29.2% | -32.9% | -35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 13.7% | -14.1% | -10.0% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 24.4% | 117.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -15.8% | -27.3% | -47.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.8% | 17.1% | -4.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | 24.3% | 24.3% | 13.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | -8.6% | -26.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/7/2023 | 12.7% | 46.4% | 50.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | -3.0% | -13.8% | -16.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | -19.3% | -22.1% | -29.6% |
| 3/8/2023 | -9.2% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| 11/3/2022 | -3.6% | 7.1% | -6.4% |
| 7/27/2022 | 3.6% | 7.6% | 11.2% |
| 4/27/2022 | 13.3% | 14.7% | 25.3% |
| 2/23/2022 | -12.0% | -18.3% | -26.5% |
| 10/27/2021 | -0.3% | -2.9% | -13.1% |
| 8/3/2021 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| 4/29/2021 | 8.1% | 6.3% | 15.2% |
| 2/25/2021 | -0.1% | 9.3% | 12.6% |
| 10/28/2020 | -6.6% | -8.4% | 10.6% |
| 8/6/2020 | -0.3% | 12.7% | 3.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 13.3% | 13.0% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -18.0% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 46.4% | 117.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -32.9% | -47.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/17/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 8.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Restaurant Level Contribution Margins | Reported | 16.0% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 16.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 51.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 54.00 Mil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 51.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Stock-based Compensation Expense | Reported | 2.50 Mil | 2.75 Mil | 3.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 24.00 Mil | 24.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 485.00 Mil | 492.50 Mil | 500.00 Mil | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 490.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 34.00 Mil | 36.00 Mil | 38.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | Reported | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | 11.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 9.00 Mil | 9.50 Mil | 10.00 Mil | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | ||||
| 2026 Restaurant Level Contribution Margin | Reported | 15.5% | 16.25% | 17.0% | ||||
| 2026 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 51.50 Mil | 53.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 24.00 Mil | 24.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 483.00 Mil | 490.50 Mil | 498.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | Reported | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | 11.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 9.50 Mil | 10.00 Mil | 10.50 Mil | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Restaurant Closures | Reported | 30 | 32.5 | 35 | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.25% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Restaurant Level Contribution Margin | Reported | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 12.2% for 2025 | |
| 2025 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 48.00 Mil | 48.50 Mil | 49.00 Mil | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 49.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 28.00 Mil | 28.50 Mil | 29.00 Mil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 28.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Total Revenue | Reported | 492.00 Mil | 493.50 Mil | 495.00 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 491.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Interest Expense | Reported | 11.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 12.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 9/25/2026