Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Key risks
CAVA key risks include [1] reduced spending from its key Gen Z demographic due to its premium pricing and [2] potential market saturation resulting from its own ambitious expansion plans.
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
7 Key risks
CAVA key risks include [1] reduced spending from its key Gen Z demographic due to its premium pricing and [2] potential market saturation resulting from its own ambitious expansion plans.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CAVA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -22% stock movement for Cava (CAVA) from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025: 1. Slowing Same-Restaurant Sales Growth. Cava experienced a significant deceleration in same-restaurant sales growth, which was 2.1% in Q2 2025 and further moderated to 1.9% in Q3 2025, accompanied by approximately flat guest traffic. This marked a notable slowdown from previous periods of double-digit growth.

2. Lowered Full-Year Sales Outlook. The company repeatedly trimmed its full-year guidance for same-restaurant sales growth, initially reducing it to 4-6% in Q2 2025 and then further adjusting it after Q3 2025 results. This indicated a more cautious outlook from management regarding future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAVA Return162%-54%
Peers Return-39%44%44%-30%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAVA Win Rate67%83%42% 
Peers Win Rate40%33%57%53%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAVA Max Drawdown-8%-61% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-19%-22%-41% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMG, SG, SHAK, WING, NDLS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CAVA has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Cava (CAVA)

Better Bets than Cava (CAVA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.3%13.3%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.4%15.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.7%16.7%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.3%13.3%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.4%15.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.7%16.7%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cava

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CAVACMGSGSHAKWINGNDLSMedian
NameCava Chipotle.Sweetgre.Shake Sh.Wingstop Noodles  
Mkt Price52.7235.666.9181.68246.560.6244.19
Mkt Cap6.147.60.83.36.90.04.7
Rev LTM1,13211,7876851,373683494909
Op Inc LTM791,996-9677180-1178
FCF LTM251,573-1096363-1544
FCF 3Y Avg11,404-851692-199
CFO LTM1742,2152204103-2139
CFO 3Y Avg1341,9931616213315134

Growth & Margins

CAVACMGSGSHAKWINGNDLSMedian
NameCava Chipotle.Sweetgre.Shake Sh.Wingstop Noodles  
Rev Chg LTM23.9%7.3%2.4%13.5%15.6%-0.3%10.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.9%15.6%16.7%28.5%0.5%15.6%
Rev Chg Q19.9%7.5%-0.6%15.9%8.1%-0.5%7.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%1.8%-0.2%3.8%2.0%-0.1%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%16.9%-14.0%5.6%26.3%-2.2%6.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.6%17.0%-16.2%3.7%26.0%-0.7%4.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.3%-1.2%0.5%0.8%0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM15.4%18.8%0.3%14.9%15.2%-0.3%15.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.4%18.6%2.4%13.2%23.8%3.0%13.8%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%13.3%-15.9%4.6%9.2%-3.1%3.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%13.1%-13.8%0.9%16.5%-3.8%0.0%

Valuation

CAVACMGSGSHAKWINGNDLSMedian
NameCava Chipotle.Sweetgre.Shake Sh.Wingstop Noodles  
Mkt Cap6.147.60.83.36.90.04.7
P/S6.24.41.42.710.30.13.6
P/EBIT88.926.2-8.257.026.1-26.2
P/E51.034.0-8.388.440.3-0.637.2
P/CFO40.223.6454.518.467.8-18.131.9
Total Yield2.0%2.9%-12.0%1.1%2.9%-153.9%1.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.4%2.4%-7.0%0.1%1.1%-0.1%
D/E0.10.10.40.20.2-0.2
Net D/E0.00.10.20.10.1-0.1

Returns

CAVACMGSGSHAKWINGNDLSMedian
NameCava Chipotle.Sweetgre.Shake Sh.Wingstop Noodles  
1M Rtn11.6%13.0%12.9%-9.8%5.9%-13.9%8.8%
3M Rtn-16.4%-9.3%-22.0%-17.5%-5.5%-8.4%-12.8%
6M Rtn-29.4%-30.6%-43.5%-34.8%-28.6%-19.5%-30.0%
12M Rtn-58.4%-45.0%-80.3%-37.9%-17.5%-13.8%-41.4%
3Y Rtn-21.9%-29.6%68.6%61.6%-88.6%21.9%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%12.0%11.9%-10.8%4.9%-14.9%7.8%
3M Excs Rtn-18.5%-13.1%-23.7%-20.5%-7.0%-9.3%-15.8%
6M Excs Rtn-43.1%-44.3%-57.2%-48.4%-42.3%-33.2%-43.7%
12M Excs Rtn-70.3%-58.5%-94.1%-51.8%-35.7%-27.4%-55.1%
3Y Excs Rtn--56.0%-107.4%0.3%-9.9%-161.2%-56.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,151,191
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.2%
Average Daily Volume4,504,857
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity115,960,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-2.6%-4.7%3.2%
8/12/2025-16.6%-19.0%-23.9%
5/15/2025-2.3%-14.8%-24.8%
2/25/2025-0.3%-13.1%-12.7%
11/12/20241.6%-2.6%-13.6%
8/22/202419.6%8.7%25.8%
5/28/20247.0%7.2%11.1%
2/27/202412.2%14.8%35.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive534
# Negative576
Median Positive7.0%8.7%18.5%
Median Negative-2.6%-7.8%-17.9%
Max Positive19.6%14.8%35.1%
Max Negative-16.6%-19.0%-24.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 10/5/2025
6302025813202510-Q 7/13/2025
3312025516202510-Q 4/20/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241113202410-Q 10/6/2024
6302024823202410-Q 7/14/2024
3312024529202410-Q 4/21/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023816202310-Q 7/9/2023
123120226162023424B4 12/25/2022
123120212062023DRS 12/26/2021