Cava (CAVA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.07 | Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cava (CAVA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.07Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 89x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 89x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CAVA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the -19.3% stock movement of CAVA from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Continued Impact of Lowered Q2 2025 Sales Outlook:
Although announced on August 12, 2025, CAVA's report of a lowered full-year same-restaurant sales growth forecast (from 6-8% to 4-6%) and a missed Q2 revenue target continued to negatively influence investor sentiment and the stock price into and throughout the period starting August 31, 2025.
2. Moderating Same-Restaurant Sales Growth in Q3 2025:
On November 4, 2025, CAVA reported Q3 2025 earnings, revealing that same-restaurant sales growth had decelerated to a modest 1.9%, falling short of analyst expectations and marking the lowest level since the company went public, with guest traffic remaining flat. This performance indicated a slowdown in the company's underlying business strength.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAVA Return | - | - | - | - | 162% | -53% | 23% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAVA Win Rate | - | - | - | 67% | 83% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAVA Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -8% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CAVA has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Cava Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Is The 23.2% Decline In Cava (CAVA) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| null | |||
| Why Cava Stock Moved: CAVA Stock Has Lost 56% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| CAVA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Cava (CAVA) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 13th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 11th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | August 25th, 2025 | ||
| Things To Be Wary Of When Buying Cava Stock | August 19th, 2025 | ||
| CAVA Stock Sinks 23%, Is A Rebound Coming? | August 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cava
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47 |
| FCF LTM | 34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 28 |
| CFO LTM | 107 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 80 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 61.2 |
| P/E | 51.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -33.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -50.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -48.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -65.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 10/5/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 7/13/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5162025 | 10-Q 4/20/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 10/6/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8232024 | 10-Q 7/14/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5292024 | 10-Q 4/21/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 10-Q 7/9/2023 |
| 12312022 | 6162023 | 424B4 12/25/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2062023 | DRS 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |