Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 89x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 89x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CAVA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the -19.3% stock movement of CAVA from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Continued Impact of Lowered Q2 2025 Sales Outlook: Although announced on August 12, 2025, CAVA's report of a lowered full-year same-restaurant sales growth forecast (from 6-8% to 4-6%) and a missed Q2 revenue target continued to negatively influence investor sentiment and the stock price into and throughout the period starting August 31, 2025.

2. Moderating Same-Restaurant Sales Growth in Q3 2025: On November 4, 2025, CAVA reported Q3 2025 earnings, revealing that same-restaurant sales growth had decelerated to a modest 1.9%, falling short of analyst expectations and marking the lowest level since the company went public, with guest traffic remaining flat. This performance indicated a slowdown in the company's underlying business strength.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAVA Return----162%-53%23%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%8%-7%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAVA Win Rate---67%83%40% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%15%18%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAVA Max Drawdown-----8%-61% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CAVA has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Cava (CAVA)

Better Bets than Cava (CAVA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cava

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CAVAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameCava Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Price54.49-308.6025.1824.68-39.84
Mkt Cap6.3-0.40.2--0.4
Rev LTM1,132-387282--387
Op Inc LTM79-2447--47
FCF LTM25-8134--34
FCF 3Y Avg1-5428--28
CFO LTM174-10751--107
CFO 3Y Avg134-8056--80

Growth & Margins

CAVAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameCava Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Rev Chg LTM23.9%-6.9%-5.3%--6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--1.7%4.2%--3.0%
Rev Chg Q19.9%-10.3%-6.6%--10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%-2.5%-1.8%--2.5%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%-6.2%16.6%--7.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.6%-8.1%19.8%--8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-1.0%-1.3%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM15.4%-27.7%18.2%--18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.4%-21.3%19.4%--19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%-21.0%11.9%--11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%-14.2%9.7%--9.7%

Valuation

CAVAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameCava Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Cap6.3-0.40.2--0.4
P/S6.2-1.11.2--1.2
P/EBIT88.9-61.29.3--61.2
P/E51.0-200.820.2--51.0
P/CFO40.2-3.96.5--6.5
Total Yield2.0%-0.5%5.7%--2.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%0.7%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.4%-17.5%6.6%--6.6%
D/E0.1-0.80.8--0.8
Net D/E0.0--0.10.7--0.0

Returns

CAVAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameCava Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
1M Rtn3.6%--13.3%4.9%1.7%-2.6%
3M Rtn-17.3%--0.4%-29.4%---17.3%
6M Rtn-33.6%-18.5%-37.8%---33.6%
12M Rtn-61.6%-37.8%-50.0%---50.0%
3Y Rtn--112.9%-71.6%--20.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.6%--13.2%4.9%1.7%-2.7%
3M Excs Rtn-22.7%--6.1%-35.6%---22.7%
6M Excs Rtn-48.3%-3.8%-52.5%---48.3%
12M Excs Rtn-74.9%-33.1%-65.2%---65.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--47.2%-143.8%---48.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,926,874
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.8%
Average Daily Volume5,626,890
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.83
Basic Shares Quantity115,960,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 10/5/2025
6302025813202510-Q 7/13/2025
3312025516202510-Q 4/20/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241113202410-Q 10/6/2024
6302024823202410-Q 7/14/2024
3312024529202410-Q 4/21/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023816202310-Q 7/9/2023
123120226162023424B4 12/25/2022
123120212062023DRS 12/26/2021