Cava (CAVA)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $52.79 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cava (CAVA)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $52.79Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Key risksCAVA key risks include [1] reduced spending from its key Gen Z demographic due to its premium pricing and [2] potential market saturation resulting from its own ambitious expansion plans. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksCAVA key risks include [1] reduced spending from its key Gen Z demographic due to its premium pricing and [2] potential market saturation resulting from its own ambitious expansion plans. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CAVA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -22% stock movement for Cava (CAVA) from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Slowing Same-Restaurant Sales Growth. Cava experienced a significant deceleration in same-restaurant sales growth, which was 2.1% in Q2 2025 and further moderated to 1.9% in Q3 2025, accompanied by approximately flat guest traffic. This marked a notable slowdown from previous periods of double-digit growth.
2. Lowered Full-Year Sales Outlook. The company repeatedly trimmed its full-year guidance for same-restaurant sales growth, initially reducing it to 4-6% in Q2 2025 and then further adjusting it after Q3 2025 results. This indicated a more cautious outlook from management regarding future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAVA Return | � | � | � | � | 162% | -54% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -39% | 44% | 44% | -30% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAVA Win Rate | � | � | � | 67% | 83% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 40% | 33% | 57% | 53% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAVA Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -8% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -53% | -19% | -22% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMG, SG, SHAK, WING, NDLS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CAVA has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Cava Earnings Notes | |||
| With Cava Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Is The 23.2% Decline In Cava (CAVA) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| How Does Cava Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Why Cava Stock Moved: CAVA Stock Has Lost 54% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| CAVA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Cava (CAVA) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cava (CAVA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 13th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 11th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | August 25th, 2025 | ||
| Things To Be Wary Of When Buying Cava Stock | August 19th, 2025 | ||
| CAVA Stock Sinks 23%, Is A Rebound Coming? | August 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cava
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 909 |
| Op Inc LTM | 78 |
| FCF LTM | 44 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9 |
| CFO LTM | 139 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 134 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 26.2 |
| P/E | 37.2 |
| P/CFO | 31.9 |
| Total Yield | 1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -30.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -41.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -43.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -55.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.6% | -4.7% | 3.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | -16.6% | -19.0% | -23.9% |
| 5/15/2025 | -2.3% | -14.8% | -24.8% |
| 2/25/2025 | -0.3% | -13.1% | -12.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | 1.6% | -2.6% | -13.6% |
| 8/22/2024 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 25.8% |
| 5/28/2024 | 7.0% | 7.2% | 11.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | 12.2% | 14.8% | 35.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 8.7% | 18.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -7.8% | -17.9% |
| Max Positive | 19.6% | 14.8% | 35.1% |
| Max Negative | -16.6% | -19.0% | -24.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 10/5/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 7/13/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5162025 | 10-Q 4/20/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 10/6/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8232024 | 10-Q 7/14/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5292024 | 10-Q 4/21/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 10-Q 7/9/2023 |
| 12312022 | 6162023 | 424B4 12/25/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2062023 | DRS 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |