Sweetgreen (SG)
Market Price (4/14/2026): $5.75 | Market Cap: $680.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Sweetgreen (SG)
Market Price (4/14/2026): $5.75Market Cap: $680.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -111 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -16% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% Key risksSG key risks include [1] a premium pricing model that has created a significant "value perception problem," leading to declining customer traffic, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -111 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -16% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
| Key risksSG key risks include [1] a premium pricing model that has created a significant "value perception problem," leading to declining customer traffic, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Sweetgreen reported a significant earnings and revenue miss for the fourth quarter of 2025, which concluded on December 28, 2025. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.42, falling short of analysts' expectations of -$0.27 by 55.56%. Quarterly revenue reached $155.19 million, missing the consensus estimate of $159.59 million and representing a 3.5% year-over-year decline.
2. The company provided a weak outlook for 2026, projecting a further decline in same-store sales. Sweetgreen explicitly anticipates a 2% to 4% decline in same-store sales for 2026, a notable shift from previous expectations of stabilization. This follows a substantial 11.5% comparable sales decline in Q4 2025, attributed to a significant reduction in customer traffic.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.1% change in SG stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.76 | 5.74 | -15.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 685 | 679 | -0.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.0 | -14.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 118 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SG | -15.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 47.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.6% | 46.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.1% change in SG stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.98 | 5.74 | -28.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 686 | 679 | -1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.0 | -27.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 118 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SG | -28.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.7% | 35.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -77.1% change in SG stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.02 | 5.74 | -77.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 677 | 679 | 0.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.3 | 1.0 | -76.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 116 | 118 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -77.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SG | -77.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 41.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 16.1% | 45.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.8% change in SG stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.84 | 5.74 | -26.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 470 | 679 | 44.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 1.0 | -45.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 118 | -6.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SG | -26.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 55.8% | 36.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SG Return | -35% | -73% | 32% | 184% | -79% | -9% | -88% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -25% | 43% | 62% | -30% | 13% | 46% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SG Win Rate | 0% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 29% | 53% | 67% | 38% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SG Max Drawdown | -50% | -75% | -26% | -10% | -84% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -45% | -11% | -7% | -41% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CAVA, CMG, SHAK, WING, LOCO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -88.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 739.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to CAVA, CMG, SHAK, WING, LOCO
In The Past
Sweetgreen's stock fell -88.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -88.1% loss requires a 739.9% gain to breakeven.
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About Sweetgreen (SG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogies:- Chipotle for salads and healthy bowls.
- A healthier, salad-focused version of Panera Bread.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Healthy Fast-Casual Meals: Sweetgreen's primary product offering consists of salads, warm bowls, and other healthy food items prepared with seasonal and organic ingredients for consumption in their restaurants or through takeout.
- Gift Cards: The company sells redeemable gift cards that customers can purchase and use to pay for meals at its restaurants.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlSweetgreen (SG) primarily sells to individuals rather than other companies. As a fast-casual restaurant chain, its business model involves serving food directly to consumers through its physical locations and online/mobile ordering platforms.
Based on the company's offerings and the nature of the fast-casual dining industry, Sweetgreen serves the following categories of customers:
- Health-conscious consumers: Individuals who prioritize healthy eating, fresh, seasonal, and organic ingredients, and may have specific dietary preferences or restrictions (e.g., vegetarian, vegan, gluten-free).
- Urban professionals and office workers: Customers seeking convenient, quick, and healthy lunch or dinner options, often located near their workplaces in urban centers and who frequently utilize online and mobile ordering for efficiency.
- Younger demographics and students: Individuals, including college students and younger adults, who are often early adopters of health-focused food trends, appreciate modern dining experiences, and value the convenience of mobile ordering.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Sweetgreen's management team includes:Jonathan Neman
Chief Executive Officer + Co-Founder Jonathan Neman co-founded Sweetgreen in 2007, and has served as its CEO since December 2017 and President since February 2018. He also serves as the Chair of the Board. Neman graduated from Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. He has led the company's expansion from a small regional chain to a national brand and guided it through its initial public offering. His career has been primarily focused on Sweetgreen, and there is no public information indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed firms.Jamie McConnell
Chief Financial Officer Jamie McConnell was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Sweetgreen, effective September 22, 2025. Before joining Sweetgreen, McConnell served as Chief Accounting and Administrative Officer at Chipotle Mexican Grill since 2018. She brings over 20 years of financial leadership experience in the restaurant, retail, and e-commerce industries, with previous roles at Aviation Capital Group, Rent-A-Center, Allergan, and Deloitte. There is no public information indicating she founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed firms.Nicolas Jammet
Chief Concept Officer + Co-Founder Nicolas Jammet co-founded Sweetgreen in 2007, along with Jonathan Neman and Nathaniel Ru, after graduating from Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. He currently serves as the Chief Concept Officer.Jason Cochran
Chief Operating Officer Jason Cochran was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Sweetgreen, effective May 5, 2025. He has more than two decades of executive leadership experience in the restaurant and consumer retail sectors. Prior to Sweetgreen, he was CEO and a board member of American West Restaurant Group, a large Pizza Hut franchisee. His career also includes serving as Vice President of Operations Services at Chipotle Mexican Grill and 14 years at GameStop, where he was Senior Vice President of U.S. stores.Wouleta Ayele
Chief Technology Officer Wouleta Ayele serves as Sweetgreen's Chief Technology Officer.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Sweetgreen's business, trading under the symbol SG, are primarily driven by challenging macroeconomic conditions, persistent profitability issues, and intense competition within the fast-casual dining sector.
- Macroeconomic Pressures and Declining Customer Traffic/Value Perception: Sweetgreen faces significant headwinds from macroeconomic pressures, leading to a decline in customer traffic and a struggle to justify its premium pricing. The company has reported decreasing same-store sales and negative traffic, as price-sensitive customers, particularly younger demographics, cut back on meals out of home. This risk is exacerbated by a "more selective consumer environment" where consumers are less willing to pay higher prices for Sweetgreen's offerings.
- Persistent Operating Losses, Cost Volatility, and Profitability Challenges: Sweetgreen has consistently recorded net losses and experienced a deterioration in profit margins. The company's cost structure, including rising labor, food, and rent expenses, significantly erodes profitability. Supply chain disruptions and commodity price volatility for ingredients like produce and proteins further strain margins and operational efficiency.
- Intense Competition: Sweetgreen operates in a highly competitive fast-casual dining industry, facing rivals such as Chipotle, CAVA, Chopt, Just Salad, and Panera. This competitive landscape puts pressure on Sweetgreen's market share and pricing strategy, especially as other chains introduce their own "better-for-you" options or offer more affordable alternatives. The increased restaurant supply growth is outpacing demand, intensifying consumer choice and price transparency.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sweetgreen faces clear emerging threats from the following:
- The rise of ghost kitchens and virtual brands: These delivery-only food operations leverage lower overhead costs by not requiring physical dining spaces, allowing them to compete aggressively on price, speed, and specialized menus for the growing online food delivery market. They can quickly adapt to trends and operate efficiently through third-party delivery platforms, directly challenging Sweetgreen's significant online and mobile ordering business.
- The expansion of direct-to-consumer (DTC) prepared meal services: Companies offering healthy, pre-cooked meals delivered directly to consumers on a subscription or on-demand basis provide a convenient alternative to restaurant take-out or delivery. Services like Factor_ or Freshly target consumers seeking consistent healthy eating options for their weekly meals, potentially reducing the frequency with which they would order from fast-casual restaurants like Sweetgreen.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sweetgreen operates within several significant addressable markets, primarily in the United States, given its focus on fast-casual dining and healthy food options.
The **U.S. Fast Casual Restaurants Market** is a substantial addressable market for Sweetgreen. This market was valued at approximately $84.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $115.5 billion by 2026. Globally, the fast-casual restaurants market was valued at $144.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $230 billion by 2030, with North America dominating this segment. The U.S. fast casual restaurants market size is valued to increase by $84.5 billion, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.7% from 2024 to 2029.
Another key addressable market is the **U.S. Healthy Food Market**, also referred to as the Health & Wellness Food Market. The U.S. Healthy Food Market size was valued at $279.83 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $476.74 billion by 2033. Similarly, the demand for health and wellness foods in the USA was valued at $183.7 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach $328.6 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 6.0%. North America, as a region, dominated the Healthy Food Market, accounting for 40.69% of the revenue share in 2025.
More specifically, for Sweetgreen's core product of salads, the **North American Soup and Salad Restaurant Market** is also a relevant segment. This market in North America accounted for $19.6 billion in 2024. The global soup and salad restaurant market was valued at $45.8 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach approximately $82.1 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.7%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sweetgreen (SG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic initiatives. These include expanding its physical footprint, continuous menu development, leveraging advanced technology, and enhancing its digital customer engagement. Here are the key drivers of future revenue growth for Sweetgreen:- Expansion through New Restaurant Openings: Sweetgreen plans to continue opening new restaurants, which is a core driver of top-line revenue growth. The company aimed for 24-26 net new restaurant openings in fiscal year 2024 and intends to accelerate unit growth in 2025. In 2025, Sweetgreen opened 35 net new restaurants, bringing its total to 281 locations. For fiscal year 2026, the company expects to open approximately 15 net new restaurants.
- Menu Innovation: Sweetgreen emphasizes menu innovation to attract and retain customers. This has been highlighted as a key growth driver and a continuous focus. The company has a robust innovation pipeline, including the launch of wraps, which are anticipated to broaden its customer base and boost sales.
- Technological Advancements, particularly the Infinite Kitchen: Sweetgreen is investing in technology such as the "Infinite Kitchen" to improve operational efficiency and enhance the customer experience. This technology is designed to deliver faster service, improve order accuracy, and elevate food quality, contributing to higher average unit volumes and labor savings. Sweetgreen has been actively implementing Infinite Kitchens, with plans for nearly half of its 2026 net new restaurants to feature this technology.
- Growth of Digital Channels and Loyalty Programs: The company is focused on increasing sales through its online and mobile ordering platforms and its loyalty program, SG Rewards. Digital sales constituted 59% of total fiscal year revenue in 2023, with a significant portion coming from Sweetgreen's own digital channels. The SG Rewards program, introduced in 2025, is designed to incentivize direct ordering and deepen guest engagement, driving owned digital growth. Total digital revenue reached 61.8% in Q3 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Sweetgreen completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in November 2021, selling 13 million shares of Class A common stock at $28 per share, which generated $364 million in net proceeds.
- The company's shares outstanding have increased by 5.59% since its IPO in late 2021.
- As part of the acquisition of Spyce Food Co. in September 2021, Sweetgreen issued 1,843,493 shares of Class S stock, valued at approximately $37 million, with a potential for an additional $20 million in Class A common stock contingent on performance milestones by June 30, 2026.
Inbound Investments
- Prior to its IPO, Sweetgreen raised $156 million in a funding round in January 2021 led by Durable Capital Partners.
Outbound Investments
- Sweetgreen acquired Spyce Food Co. in September 2021 for $51.3 million to integrate its robotic kitchen technology, known as "Infinite Kitchen," into its operations.
- In November 2025, Sweetgreen sold its Spyce business to Wonder for $186.4 million, receiving $100 million in cash and $86.4 million in Series C Preferred Stock from Wonder, while retaining rights to deploy the Infinite Kitchen technology.
Capital Expenditures
- Sweetgreen's capital expenditures were $85 million in 2021, $97 million in 2022, $90 million in 2023, and $84 million in 2024.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures has been on opening new restaurants and integrating the Infinite Kitchen technology.
- For 2025, Sweetgreen planned to open 37 net new restaurants, with about half featuring Infinite Kitchen technology, and for 2026, the company plans to open 15 to 20 net new restaurants, with a focus on lowering capital expenditures.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 938 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 41 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 25 |
| CFO LTM | 169 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 20.8 |
| P/E | 29.6 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -42.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.74 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/18/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -72.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.58 | $7.96 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.9% | -27.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 77.7% | 72.9% |
| Downside Capture | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| Upside Capture | 164.63 | 28.61 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.9% | 29.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.53 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 1.46 | 1.63 | 1.86 |
| Up Beta | 7.41 | 3.02 | 2.26 | 0.72 | 1.57 | 1.77 |
| Down Beta | 1.03 | 1.93 | 2.93 | 2.25 | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| Up Capture | 313% | 289% | 223% | 59% | 34% | 532% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 53 | 108 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 218% | 238% | 238% | 158% | 160% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 25 | 35 | 70 | 139 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG | -72.7% | 72.3% | -1.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 17.3% | 19.7% | 0.69 | 35.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 13.7% | 1.06 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.7% | 27.6% | 1.55 | -12.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.37 | -13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.8% | 14.0% | 0.76 | 22.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -11.7% | 43.0% | -0.17 | 19.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG | -33.9% | 79.4% | -0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.4% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 42.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.6% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 27.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG | -18.7% | 79.4% | -0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.0% | 0.52 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 42.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 27.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -9.6% | -6.4% | -23.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | -7.5% | -5.0% | 10.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | -23.1% | -27.7% | -35.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -16.2% | -16.2% | -22.9% |
| 2/26/2025 | 0.0% | -0.6% | 14.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.9% | -20.2% | -10.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 33.4% | 40.1% | 9.2% |
| 5/9/2024 | 34.0% | 34.9% | 38.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 19.1% | 37.5% | 22.8% |
| Median Negative | -10.9% | -12.5% | -23.2% |
| Max Positive | 34.0% | 48.3% | 99.1% |
| Max Negative | -23.1% | -27.7% | -36.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | 15 | -40.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 25 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Same-Store Sales Change | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -146.2% | -9.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.07 for 2025 |
| 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 14.2% | 14.45% | 14.7% | -26.8% | -5.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.75% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.00 Mil | 3.50 Mil | 6.00 Mil | -82.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 675.00 Mil | 677.50 Mil | 680.00 Mil | -8.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 737.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Same-store sales growth | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 18.00 Mil | 19.50 Mil | 21.00 Mil | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 20.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Restaurant-level profit margin | 19.5% | 19.75% | 20.0% | ||||
| 2025 New restaurant openings | 23 | 25 | 27 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jammet, Nicolas | Chief Concept Officer | See footnote | Buy | 11122025 | 5.51 | 18,115 | 99,804 | 99,804 | Form |
| 2 | Neman, Jonathan | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | See footnote | Buy | 11122025 | 5.56 | 179,800 | 999,688 | 999,688 | Form |
| 3 | Reback, Mitch | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 9.19 | 11,530 | 105,961 | 2,967,368 | Form |
| 4 | Burrows, Clifford | Trust | Buy | 5282025 | 13.11 | 19,200 | 251,712 | 251,712 | Form | |
| 5 | Reback, Mitch | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5192025 | 15.23 | 10,088 | 153,640 | 5,093,232 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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