Noodles (NDLS)


Market Price (9/14/2026): $13.63 | Market Cap: $80.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Noodles (NDLS)


Market Price (9/14/2026): $13.63
Market Cap: $80.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 298%

Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 160%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 62%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%

High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 106%

Key risks
NDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Vegan Products, and Last-Mile Delivery.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 298%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 160%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 62%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 106%
8 Key risks
NDLS key risks include [1] significant financial distress from a high debt load and persistent net losses, Show more.

NDLS in ETFs

Weight = NDLS's share of each fund

VTI0.00%

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/1/2026

Noodles (NDLS) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Noodles & Company reported robust financial performance in its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations. The company announced a system-wide comparable restaurant sales increase of 10.3%, with company-owned restaurants seeing an 11.4% rise and franchised locations growing by 5.5%. Adjusted EBITDA surged by 79% year-over-year to $10.8 million, compared to $6.0 million in fiscal Q2 2025. This strong performance led to a substantial positive market reaction, including a 24.37% gain in the stock on July 24, 2026, the day of the earnings report.

2. Management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, reflecting increased confidence in sustained business momentum. Following the strong Q2 results, Noodles & Company updated its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting total revenue of $485–$500 million and comparable restaurant sales growth between 8.0% and 11.0%. The company also increased its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $34–$38 million and anticipated restaurant-level contribution margins of 16–17%. This upward revision signals a positive trajectory for the company's financial health.

Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026

Noodles (NDLS) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Noodles & Company reported robust financial performance in its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations. The company announced a system-wide comparable restaurant sales increase of 10.3%, with company-owned restaurants seeing an 11.4% rise and franchised locations growing by 5.5%. Adjusted EBITDA surged by 79% year-over-year to $10.8 million, compared to $6.0 million in fiscal Q2 2025. This strong performance led to a substantial positive market reaction, including a 24.37% gain in the stock on July 24, 2026, the day of the earnings report.

2. Management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, reflecting increased confidence in sustained business momentum. Following the strong Q2 results, Noodles & Company updated its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting total revenue of $485–$500 million and comparable restaurant sales growth between 8.0% and 11.0%. The company also increased its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $34–$38 million and anticipated restaurant-level contribution margins of 16–17%. This upward revision signals a positive trajectory for the company's financial health.

3. The company's ongoing strategic turnaround and portfolio optimization efforts have demonstrated tangible results, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability. Noodles & Company has achieved seven consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales. The fiscal Q2 2026 also saw restaurant contribution margin improve to 17.2% from 12.8% in the prior year. Management’s strategy includes optimizing its restaurant portfolio by planning 30-35 company-owned and five franchised restaurant closures in fiscal 2026, alongside one new franchise opening, aiming to concentrate sales in a more productive restaurant base and drive positive free cash flow for debt reduction.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 9.0% change in NDLS stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269132026Change
Stock Price ($)12.6013.749.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4954960.1%
P/S Multiple0.10.210.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)66-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution9.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NDLS9.0% 
Market (SPY)1.0%15.7%
Sector (XLY)-6.5%24.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 134.1% change in NDLS stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 138.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820269132026Change
Stock Price ($)5.8713.74134.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4944960.3%
P/S Multiple0.10.2138.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)66-2.0%
Cumulative Contribution134.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NDLS134.1% 
Market (SPY)11.7%-0.3%
Sector (XLY)-3.1%6.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 141.1% change in NDLS stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 147.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120259132026Change
Stock Price ($)5.7013.74141.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4954960.2%
P/S Multiple0.10.2147.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)66-2.6%
Cumulative Contribution141.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NDLS141.1% 
Market (SPY)19.5%3.7%
Sector (XLY)-1.9%5.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -38.2% change in NDLS stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239132026Change
Stock Price ($)22.2413.74-38.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)517496-4.1%
P/S Multiple0.20.2-34.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)66-2.2%
Cumulative Contribution-38.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NDLS-38.2% 
Market (SPY)75.7%16.5%
Sector (XLY)35.3%16.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NDLS Return15%-39%-43%-82%22%148%-78%
Peers Return-5%-38%37%98%-39%14%12%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NDLS Win Rate58%25%50%17%42%56% 
Peers Win Rate35%35%53%67%38%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NDLS Max Drawdown-32%-54%-70%-82%-65%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-50%-31%-26%-57%-38% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CAKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNDLSS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-54.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven118.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven371 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-10.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.2%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven4 days18 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-60.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven149.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven136 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-43.3%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven811 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-31.4%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.8%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven20 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-24.4%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven32.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven34 days62 days

Compare to CMG, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CAKE

In The Past

Noodles's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNDLSS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-54.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven118.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven371 days79 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-60.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven149.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven136 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-43.3%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven811 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-31.4%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.8%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven20 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-24.4%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven32.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven34 days62 days

Compare to CMG, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CAKE

In The Past

Noodles's stock fell -54.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 118.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Noodles (NDLS)

Noodles & Company (NDLS) is a fast-casual restaurant concept company that develops and operates dining establishments primarily across the United States. Founded in 1995 and based in Broomfield, Colorado, the company provides customers with a convenient and quick service dining experience focused on freshly prepared meals.

The company's main product offerings center around a diverse menu of cooked-to-order dishes, with a particular emphasis on various noodles and pasta. Complementing these core items, Noodles & Company also serves a selection of soups, salads, and appetizers. As of December 28, 2021, the company operated a total of 448 restaurants across 29 states, serving its primary customers through both 372 company-owned and 76 franchise locations.

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Chipotle for noodles and pasta.

A Panera Bread focused on noodle and pasta dishes.

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  • Noodles and Pasta: Cooked-to-order dishes featuring a variety of noodle and pasta options with different sauces and ingredients.
  • Soups: A selection of freshly prepared hot soups offered as part of the restaurant's menu.
  • Salads: Various fresh, crisp salads available, often with the option to add proteins.
  • Appetizers: Smaller dishes designed to be eaten before the main course or as a light snack.

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Noodles & Company (NDLS) operates fast-casual restaurants and, as such, sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other companies. Its major customers can be categorized as:

  • Individual Diners: This broad category includes the general public seeking a convenient and customizable meal option for lunch or dinner.
  • Families: With a diverse menu offering pasta, noodles, soups, and salads, Noodles & Company often caters to families looking for a casual dining experience that can satisfy varying tastes and preferences.
  • Lunch Customers / Office Workers: Due to its fast-casual format and quick service, the company frequently serves individuals looking for a speedy and satisfying lunch option, including those on a work break.

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Joseph (Joe) Christina President, Chief Executive Officer

Joseph D. Christina was promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer of Noodles & Company effective August 31, 2025, having joined the company as President and Chief Operating Officer in February 2025. He brings over 30 years of experience in the restaurant industry. Prior to Noodles, Mr. Christina served as CEO of Church's Chicken for six years, leading the brand to significant year-over-year growth, and most recently as CEO of Tijuana Flats, where he revitalized the brand and drove expansion. He began his career at Burger King, progressing through various roles over 29 years, including restaurant manager, franchisee, Vice President of Global Operations and Training, and Senior Vice President of Franchise Operations for the West Division. Information regarding whether he sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms is not available in the provided context.

Mike Hynes Chief Financial Officer

Mike Hynes joined Noodles & Company as Chief Financial Officer in July 2023, bringing over 25 years of finance and accounting experience. Before his role at Noodles, he held multiple leadership positions at Ruth's Hospitality Group, including Vice President of Finance and Accounting at Ruth's Chris Steak House, where he was responsible for investor relations, SEC reporting, strategic planning, and financial analysis. Earlier in his career, Mr. Hynes worked at firms such as RSM and Deloitte and is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA). Information regarding whether he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms is not available in the provided context.

Stephen Kennedy Executive Vice President - Marketing

Stephen Kennedy was appointed Executive Vice President of Marketing for Noodles & Company, with his tenure starting on November 18, 2024.

Corey Kline Executive Vice President of Technology

Corey Kline joined Noodles & Company in September 2011 and was promoted to Executive Vice President of Technology. He previously held roles at Famous Dave's, Accenture, Jefferson Wells, and IBM, with a background in enterprise applications and risk management. Mr. Kline holds a BA in Mathematics with a minor in Computer Science from Luther College. His forward-looking approach to technology has been instrumental in developing the company's digital consumer platform and spearheading data security and compliance efforts.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Noodles & Company (NDLS) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from a highly competitive market, ongoing financial struggles, and operational inefficiencies. Here are the key risks to the business:
  1. Intense Competition and Declining Consumer Value Perception: Noodles & Company operates in a saturated fast-casual restaurant market, leading to intense competition. The company has experienced a decline in guest value perception, particularly during lunch, and has faced significant competitive discounting across the industry. This challenge has directly impacted sales and traffic, necessitating ongoing menu and operational adjustments to regain momentum with consumers.
  2. Poor Financial Health and Profitability Issues: The company exhibits notable financial distress, characterized by persistent negative net and operating margins. Noodles & Company has reported net losses and has revised its revenue guidance downward. The company also carries a significant debt burden and has a deeply negative equity position, indicating a high financial risk. Higher food and labor costs further exacerbate margin pressures.
  3. Operational Challenges and Restaurant Underperformance: Noodles & Company has been actively closing underperforming restaurants, with plans for additional closures, leading to non-cash impairment charges. These closures highlight operational inefficiencies and the need for a substantial operational overhaul within the company. Furthermore, an unexpected and significant decline in third-party delivery sales has also negatively impacted results. The company has also experienced leadership transitions, which can introduce additional operational uncertainties.

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```html The proliferation and increasing sophistication of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands specializing in similar fast-casual comfort food offerings. These models operate with significantly lower overhead, are designed for delivery-first consumption, and can potentially offer competitive pricing and convenience, directly challenging traditional brick-and-mortar restaurants like Noodles & Company, especially in the growing delivery segment of the market. ```

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The addressable markets for Noodles & Company's main products and services are primarily within the U.S. fast-casual restaurant sector, with specific market sizes for noodles/pasta, soups, and salads.

The U.S. fast-casual restaurant market, which encompasses Noodles & Company's service offering, was valued at approximately $50.6 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $121.3 billion by 2032, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2023 to 2032. Another estimate indicates this market is expected to grow by $84.5 billion from 2025-2029, with a CAGR of 13.7%.

For its main product categories, the addressable market sizes in the U.S. are as follows:

  • Noodles and Pasta: The U.S. pasta and noodles market was estimated at approximately $5.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $7.17 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another report estimates the U.S. pasta and noodles market size at $7.46 billion in 2025.
  • Soups: The U.S. soup market was valued at $4.95 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2030. Other data suggests the U.S. soup market was around $5.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $6.94 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 3.6% between 2025 and 2033.
  • Salads: The U.S. packaged salads market was estimated at $6.15 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another source indicates the U.S. packaged salads market was valued at $6.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $7.70 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.8%.

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Noodles & Company (NDLS) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These strategies focus on menu innovation, leveraging its digital presence, and optimizing its restaurant portfolio. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Noodles & Company: * **Menu Innovation and Limited-Time Offers (LTOs):** The company plans to regularly introduce new menu items and successful limited-time offers to attract and excite customers. For example, the Steak Stroganoff LTO significantly exceeded sales forecasts, and a new Baked Alfredo with Grilled Chicken LTO is expected to perform strongly. These initiatives, including a broader menu transformation, aim to drive traffic and increase average checks. * **Enhancement of the Digital Ecosystem and Loyalty Program:** With a significant portion of sales already coming from digital channels and loyalty members, Noodles & Company is focused on expanding its digital reach. Strategies include increasing active membership and frequency in its loyalty program, utilizing personalized data from a new customer data platform to boost conversion and frequency, and broadening digital marketing touchpoints, such as launching an SMS communication channel. * **Strategic Unit Growth and Portfolio Optimization:** While strategically slowing short-term new company restaurant growth, Noodles & Company aims for stronger new unit growth in the future, including both company-owned and new franchise locations, particularly in Southern and Southwestern markets. This is coupled with a focus on "portfolio optimization," which involves closing underperforming restaurants to concentrate resources on locations with the strongest potential for top-line growth. * **Strengthening Value Proposition and Strategic Pricing:** Noodles & Company plans to enhance its value proposition through initiatives like the "Delicious Duos" platform, which has already contributed to positive comparable restaurant sales. The company has also historically utilized pricing strategies to contribute to revenue and will continue to optimize its pricing in conjunction with its menu offerings and value perception.

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Share Repurchases

  • In 2024, Noodles & Company repurchased 1,731,952 shares of its common stock for approximately $5 million under the 2023 Share Repurchase Program, which was subsequently canceled.
  • The number of shares outstanding decreased in 2023.

Share Issuance

  • On February 18, 2026, Noodles & Company implemented a 1-for-8 reverse stock split.
  • The CEO received an award of 250,000 restricted stock units (RSUs) in August 2025, vesting in four equal installments starting in August 2026.
  • The number of shares outstanding increased by 1.64% in one year.

Capital Expenditures

  • For fiscal year 2025, expected capital expenditures were $12 million to $13 million.
  • Capital expenditures in 2024 were $28.8 million, contributing to a negative free cash flow of -$21.2 million.
  • In 2023, the company opened 18 new company-owned restaurants, with plans for 10-12 new company-owned restaurants in 2024, though the development pipeline was reduced due to increased costs and lower returns. The company also expects to open two new company-owned restaurants in 2025 and continue investing in technology improvements.

Better Bets vs. Noodles (NDLS)

Peer Outperformance in Restaurants

NDLS has trailed 100% of its 33 Restaurants peers over 5Y. Restaurants ranks 10th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Restaurants constituents that NDLS has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
100%
of 44 industry peers · 160.2% return
3Y
37%
of 41 industry peers · -34.2% return
5Y
0%
of 33 industry peers · -85.4% return
No Restaurants peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten NDLS by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is NDLS's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -21.1%83.9%72.4% LINC 306% · PRDO 236% · CVSA 229%
Homebuilding 18 -14.7%18.5%42.6% GRBK 208% · PHM 163% · TOL 140%
Specialty Stores 7 11.7%34.7%16.4% SIG 39% · FIVE 32% · ASO 27%
Automotive Retail 18 -11.4%2.8%10.7% MUSA 268% · PAG 171% · ORLY 118%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -26.1%-9.5%5.2% HVT 16% · LOW 6% · HD 5%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 12.9%43.5%4.0% RCL 225% · MAR 145% · HLT 136%
Distributors 4 -12.0%-24.5%-8.5% ARMK 165% · GPC 29% · LKQ -46%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -16.0%26.2%-11.9% HRB 117% · FTDR 75% · SCI 44%
Home Furnishings 4 -6.7%18.5%-14.0% SGI 48% · LZB 4% · MHK -32%
Restaurants ← 34 -12.2%-17.2%-14.7% EAT 337% · CAKE 157% · BH 134%
Footwear 9 42.7%43.7%-24.7% WEYS 162% · SHOO 24% · DECK 12%
Leisure Products 13 -22.4%-19.6%-34.1% GOLF 82% · HAS 15% · BC -19%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -8.7%-23.6%-36.1% MCRI 117% · RSI 67% · RRR 58%
Leisure Facilities 11 -4.0%-12.8%-37.1% OSW 132% · JAKK 106% · ESCA 19%
Apparel Retail 25 -9.5%10.4%-38.1% ANF 314% · URBN 147% · ROST 117%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -10.7%-11.0%-38.4% MOD 1601% · GTX 301% · STRT 92%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 -7.6%8.6%-40.3% TPR 236% · RL 236% · ELA 224%
Household Appliances 18 -1.8%13.7%-43.8% FLXS 174% · KEQU 165% · HBB 124%
Broadline Retail 15 -12.2%12.4%-54.3% DDS 317% · EBAY 65% · AMZN 49%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -15.2%15.4%-57.5% BBY 3% · GME -58% · UPBD -59%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -78.1%-50.5%-71.5% GM 76% · F 48% · TSLA 47%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -31.0%-49.5%-77.3% TLF 109% · BBW 93% · WINA 79%
Consumer Electronics 11 -13.5%-8.8%-77.8% AXIL 2979% · GRMN 85% · MSN -58%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NDLSCMGSGCAVASHAKCAKEMedian
NameNoodles Chipotle.Sweetgre.Cava Shake Sh.Cheeseca. 
Mkt Price13.7436.207.1055.8863.65102.7046.04
Mkt Cap0.146.20.86.52.64.83.7
Rev LTM49612,4246821,3741,5523,8771,463
Op Inc LTM71,918-1231018227191
FCF LTM41,569-12449-1220526
FCF 3Y Avg-111,445-79361713026
CFO LTM132,328-28220192354206
CFO 3Y Avg142,09912177176292177

Growth & Margins

NDLSCMGSGCAVASHAKCAKEMedian
NameNoodles Chipotle.Sweetgre.Cava Shake Sh.Cheeseca. 
Rev Chg LTM0.2%7.3%-0.6%26.8%17.3%5.7%6.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.4%10.2%9.9%28.7%16.1%4.4%10.1%
Rev Chg Q0.5%9.3%3.8%31.3%17.2%7.7%8.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%2.3%1.0%6.8%4.1%1.9%2.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM154.2%-4.0%-39.6%35.8%20.9%11.2%16.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-1,995.2%9.1%-2.1%91.6%102.5%28.0%18.5%
Op Mgn LTM1.3%15.4%-18.1%7.3%5.3%7.0%6.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.4%16.7%-14.9%6.5%4.5%6.4%5.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%-0.5%-0.7%0.2%-0.2%0.2%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM2.7%18.7%-4.1%16.0%12.3%9.1%10.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.8%18.1%1.8%16.1%13.1%7.9%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM0.8%12.6%-18.1%3.6%-0.8%5.3%2.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.1%12.5%-11.6%3.1%1.4%3.5%2.2%

Valuation

NDLSCMGSGCAVASHAKCAKEMedian
NameNoodles Chipotle.Sweetgre.Cava Shake Sh.Cheeseca. 
Mkt Cap0.146.20.86.52.64.83.7
P/S0.23.71.24.71.71.21.4
P/Op Inc12.424.1-6.864.831.217.720.9
P/EBIT-6.424.154.764.838.223.331.2
P/E-3.532.661.798.364.726.847.2
P/CFO6.119.9-30.529.613.413.513.5
Total Yield-28.6%3.1%1.6%1.0%1.5%4.9%1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-210.0%2.4%-5.8%0.4%0.3%4.3%0.3%
D/E3.00.10.40.10.40.40.4
Net D/E3.00.10.30.00.30.40.3

Returns

NDLSCMGSGCAVASHAKCAKEMedian
NameNoodles Chipotle.Sweetgre.Cava Shake Sh.Cheeseca. 
1M Rtn-23.3%8.1%13.1%-24.9%-15.0%-9.4%-12.2%
3M Rtn-3.7%12.3%-21.7%-38.6%9.3%36.8%2.8%
6M Rtn124.9%11.3%33.5%-31.9%-26.8%79.8%22.4%
12M Rtn160.2%-6.3%-16.4%-12.2%-36.8%85.0%-9.2%
3Y Rtn-34.2%-6.5%-41.5%55.0%2.5%263.4%-2.0%
1M Excs Rtn-15.2%12.1%23.2%-18.4%-11.5%-11.3%-11.4%
3M Excs Rtn-7.1%12.3%-25.9%-40.2%5.6%33.8%-0.7%
6M Excs Rtn113.9%-3.6%16.0%-45.2%-41.4%68.1%6.2%
12M Excs Rtn143.8%-23.7%-35.5%-31.5%-51.9%61.1%-27.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-108.8%-78.8%-121.6%-40.1%-76.9%191.3%-77.9%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232021
Single segment495503509 
Franchising royalties and fees, and other   8
Restaurant revenue   467
Total495503509475


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Single segment-32-5-1
Total-32-5-1


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Single segment262325
Total262325


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$13.74 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.1 
First Trading Date06/28/2013 
Distance from 52W High-26.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$14.72$9.98
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-6.7%37.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility87.3%106.5%
Downside Capture169.5749.14
Upside Capture126.18152.36
Correlation (SPY)11.1%4.2%
NDLS Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.731.490.93-0.100.291.00
Up Beta-0.240.62-0.49-0.01-0.031.03
Down Beta4.11-2.290.64-2.58-0.910.73
Up Capture-109%221%194%201%180%78%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days7173068123337
Down Capture463%317%121%-29%55%107%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days14253458127388

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NDLS
NDLS162.0%105.9%1.34-
Sector ETF (XLY)-2.4%19.5%-0.255.4%
Equity (SPY)18.3%12.8%1.033.7%
Gold (GLD)19.0%29.2%0.59-1.7%
Commodities (DBC)48.3%20.6%1.804.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.6%13.6%0.2910.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-32.4%43.8%-0.774.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NDLS
NDLS-32.7%81.3%-0.14-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.1%24.1%0.1726.6%
Equity (SPY)12.5%17.2%0.5525.5%
Gold (GLD)18.7%18.8%0.812.7%
Commodities (DBC)11.4%19.5%0.468.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.7%18.9%-0.0723.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.4%52.6%0.3611.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NDLS
NDLS-12.5%72.2%0.13-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.0%22.2%0.4931.8%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7230.4%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.3%0.622.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%18.1%0.3913.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1927.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.2%66.2%1.039.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 815202611.8%
Average Daily Volume0.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity5.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/26/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/24/202624.4%42.3%21.7%
5/6/20266.0%12.5%8.7%
1/12/202614.6%13.3%-32.0%
11/5/202513.3%13.0%40.3%
8/13/2025-29.2%-32.9%-35.3%
5/7/2025-15.8%-17.7%-20.7%
3/6/202513.7%-14.1%-10.0%
1/13/2025-0.9%24.4%117.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111513
# Negative151113
Median Positive13.3%13.0%13.9%
Median Negative-6.6%-18.0%-20.8%
Max Positive24.4%46.4%117.6%
Max Negative-29.2%-32.9%-47.7%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/24/202624.4%42.3%21.7%
5/6/20266.0%12.5%8.7%
1/12/202614.6%13.3%-32.0%
11/5/202513.3%13.0%40.3%
8/13/2025-29.2%-32.9%-35.3%
5/7/2025-15.8%-17.7%-20.7%
3/6/202513.7%-14.1%-10.0%
1/13/2025-0.9%24.4%117.6%
11/6/2024-15.8%-27.3%-47.7%
8/7/2024-4.8%17.1%-4.1%
5/8/202424.3%24.3%13.9%
3/7/2024-8.6%-26.5%-36.7%
11/7/202312.7%46.4%50.0%
8/9/2023-3.0%-13.8%-16.5%
5/10/2023-19.3%-22.1%-29.6%
3/8/2023-9.2%-18.0%-20.8%
11/3/2022-3.6%7.1%-6.4%
7/27/20223.6%7.6%11.2%
4/27/202213.3%14.7%25.3%
2/23/2022-12.0%-18.3%-26.5%
10/27/2021-0.3%-2.9%-13.1%
8/3/20214.2%3.5%5.6%
4/29/20218.1%6.3%15.2%
2/25/2021-0.1%9.3%12.6%
10/28/2020-6.6%-8.4%10.6%
8/6/2020-0.3%12.7%3.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111513
# Negative151113
Median Positive13.3%13.0%13.9%
Median Negative-6.6%-18.0%-20.8%
Max Positive24.4%46.4%117.6%
Max Negative-29.2%-32.9%-47.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/24/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/14/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202403/07/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202303/08/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/09/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/24/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/14/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202403/07/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202303/08/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/09/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
03/31/202204/28/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/09/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202104/30/202110-Q
12/31/202002/26/202110-K
09/30/202010/29/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202006/17/202010-Q
12/31/201902/26/202010-K
09/30/201911/08/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/27/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/24/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales GrowthReported8.0%9.5%11.0% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 8.5% for 2026
2026 Restaurant Level Contribution MarginsReported16.0%16.5%17.0% 0.2%RaisedGuidance: 16.25% for 2026
2026 General and Administrative ExpensesReported51.00 Mil52.50 Mil54.00 Mil1.9% RaisedGuidance: 51.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Stock-based Compensation ExpenseReported2.50 Mil2.75 Mil3.00 Mil   
2026 Depreciation and AmortizationReported24.00 Mil24.50 Mil25.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 24.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Total RevenueReported485.00 Mil492.50 Mil500.00 Mil0.4% RaisedGuidance: 490.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported34.00 Mil36.00 Mil38.00 Mil2.9% RaisedGuidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Net Interest ExpenseReported10.00 Mil10.50 Mil11.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 10.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported9.00 Mil9.50 Mil10.00 Mil-5.0% LoweredGuidance: 10.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales GrowthReported7.0%8.5%10.0%   
2026 Restaurant Level Contribution MarginReported15.5%16.25%17.0%   
2026 General and Administrative ExpensesReported50.00 Mil51.50 Mil53.00 Mil   
2026 Depreciation and AmortizationReported24.00 Mil24.50 Mil25.00 Mil   
2026 RevenueReported483.00 Mil490.50 Mil498.00 Mil   
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported32.50 Mil35.00 Mil37.50 Mil   
2026 Net Interest ExpenseReported10.00 Mil10.50 Mil11.00 Mil   
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported9.50 Mil10.00 Mil10.50 Mil   

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Restaurant ClosuresReported3032.535   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Comparable Restaurant Sales GrowthReported3.6%3.9%4.2% 0.6%RaisedGuidance: 3.25% for 2025
2025 Restaurant Level Contribution MarginReported12.3%12.5%12.7% 0.3%RaisedGuidance: 12.2% for 2025
2025 General and Administrative ExpensesReported48.00 Mil48.50 Mil49.00 Mil-1.0% LoweredGuidance: 49.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Depreciation and AmortizationReported28.00 Mil28.50 Mil29.00 Mil1.8% RaisedGuidance: 28.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Total RevenueReported492.00 Mil493.50 Mil495.00 Mil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 491.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Net Interest ExpenseReported 11.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 11.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Capital ExpendituresReported12.00 Mil12.50 Mil13.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 12.50 Mil for 2025
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/13/2026