Murphy USA (MUSA)


Market Price (10/22/2026): $540.5 | Market Cap: $10.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Murphy USA (MUSA)


Market Price (10/22/2026): $540.5
Market Cap: $10.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 5.5%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%

Key risks
MUSA key risks include [1] declining same-store fuel demand driven by the evolving energy and consumer landscape and [2] a notably elevated debt-to-equity ratio.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%
6 Key risks
MUSA key risks include [1] declining same-store fuel demand driven by the evolving energy and consumer landscape and [2] a notably elevated debt-to-equity ratio.

MUSA in ETFs

Weight = MUSA's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.27%
VB0.11%
NUSC0.72%
MDYV0.55%
IJJ0.49%
+19 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/14/2026

Murphy USA (MUSA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Counteracted by Conservative Future Outlook.

Murphy USA reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, announced on August 5, 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) of $11.27, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $9.95 by $1.32. Revenue also exceeded expectations, rising 36.0% year-over-year to $6.81 billion against analyst estimates of $6.03 billion. Despite this strong performance, management conveyed a conservative outlook due to anticipated supply shocks and broader consumer pressures, leading analysts to forecast a -13.84% decrease in EPS for the next year, which tempered sustained upward momentum.

2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Fuel Margin Concerns.

The stock's performance was influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, including rising 10-year Treasury yields, which hovered near 5.2% to 5.3%, contributing to a cautious investor sentiment across consumer discretionary sectors. Investors also closely monitored retail fuel margins; while strong in earlier quarters, concerns about potential compression and softer fuel volumes emerged, particularly after Brent crude prices declined by more than 2% in September 2026, putting downward pressure on fuel retailer stocks like Murphy USA.

Show more
Updated on 10/14/2026

Murphy USA (MUSA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Counteracted by Conservative Future Outlook.

Murphy USA reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, announced on August 5, 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) of $11.27, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $9.95 by $1.32. Revenue also exceeded expectations, rising 36.0% year-over-year to $6.81 billion against analyst estimates of $6.03 billion. Despite this strong performance, management conveyed a conservative outlook due to anticipated supply shocks and broader consumer pressures, leading analysts to forecast a -13.84% decrease in EPS for the next year, which tempered sustained upward momentum.

2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Fuel Margin Concerns.

The stock's performance was influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, including rising 10-year Treasury yields, which hovered near 5.2% to 5.3%, contributing to a cautious investor sentiment across consumer discretionary sectors. Investors also closely monitored retail fuel margins; while strong in earlier quarters, concerns about potential compression and softer fuel volumes emerged, particularly after Brent crude prices declined by more than 2% in September 2026, putting downward pressure on fuel retailer stocks like Murphy USA.

3. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Modest Price Target Adjustments.

Analyst sentiment for Murphy USA during this period was mixed, culminating in a consensus "Hold" rating for the stock by October 2026. Although some firms issued bullish price target increases over the summer (e.g., Wells Fargo to $570, BofA to $625, KeyBanc to $680), others like JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their price objective from $655.00 to $633.00 on August 7, 2026. The average 12-month price target of $606.89, as of October 14, 2026, offered only a modest upside from current trading levels, limiting significant rallies.

4. Sustained Capital Allocation Programs Provided Support.

Murphy USA's ongoing commitment to shareholder returns provided a degree of stability for the stock. The company increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.65 per share, representing a 23% year-over-year increase from the fiscal Q3 2025 dividend, which was payable on September 3, 2026. Additionally, the company continued its share repurchase program, buying back approximately 143.1 thousand common shares for $76.8 million at an average price of $536.60 per share during fiscal Q2 2026. These capital allocation efforts helped to underpin the stock's value, preventing a more substantial decline amid market uncertainties.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -0.3% change in MUSA stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610212026Change
Stock Price ($)538.26536.52-0.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)19,67821,4799.2%
Net Income Margin (%)2.8%2.9%2.1%
P/E Multiple18.016.0-11.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)19180.4%
Cumulative Contribution-0.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MUSA-0.3% 
Market (SPY)3.5%-34.0%
Sector (XLY)-1.5%-27.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.9% change in MUSA stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)331202610212026Change
Stock Price ($)492.84536.528.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)19,38421,47910.8%
Net Income Margin (%)2.4%2.9%18.4%
P/E Multiple19.516.0-17.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)19181.1%
Cumulative Contribution8.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MUSA8.9% 
Market (SPY)19.2%-29.0%
Sector (XLY)6.2%-28.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 39.0% change in MUSA stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)930202510212026Change
Stock Price ($)386.08536.5239.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)19,47921,47910.3%
Net Income Margin (%)2.5%2.9%14.1%
P/E Multiple15.416.04.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)20186.0%
Cumulative Contribution39.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MUSA39.0% 
Market (SPY)17.0%-21.7%
Sector (XLY)-3.0%-17.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 59.3% change in MUSA stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202310212026Change
Stock Price ($)336.89536.5259.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)22,22421,479-3.4%
Net Income Margin (%)2.6%2.9%10.8%
P/E Multiple12.716.026.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)221817.6%
Cumulative Contribution59.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MUSA59.3% 
Market (SPY)87.1%3.3%
Sector (XLY)46.8%4.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MUSA Return53%41%28%41%-19%34%324%
Peers Return1%33%6%0%27%60%189%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MUSA Win Rate58%50%67%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate53%64%50%47%53%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MUSA Max Drawdown-17%-16%-14%-12%-31%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-24%-22%-37%-37%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CASY, DK, ARKO. See MUSA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/21/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMUSAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven279 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-11.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.3%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven30 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-14.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven20 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-23.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven22 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-15.4%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven93 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-20.0%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.0%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven139 days6 days

Compare to CASY, DK, ARKO

In The Past

Murphy USA's stock fell -15.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMUSAS&P 500
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-23.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven22 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-46.3%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven86.2%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven206 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-37.9%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.0%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven930 days125 days

Compare to CASY, DK, ARKO

In The Past

Murphy USA's stock fell -15.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Murphy USA (MUSA)

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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) is a leading retailer primarily engaged in the marketing of motor fuel products and a variety of convenience merchandise. The company's core business revolves around operating a large network of retail stores where it sells gasoline to motorists, complemented by an assortment of everyday convenience items such as snacks, beverages, tobacco products, and other quick-purchase goods.

The company serves a broad customer base of motorists and local consumers across the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions of the United States. Murphy USA operates over 1,600 retail gasoline stores under well-recognized brands including Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek, strategically providing convenient access to fuel and essential convenience items for its patrons.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Murphy USA:

  • Like a regional 7-Eleven
  • A gas station and convenience store chain, similar to a Circle K or Casey's General Stores

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Retail Motor Fuel Products: Provides gasoline and other motor fuels to consumers through its retail stations.
  • Convenience Merchandise: Sells a variety of everyday items, snacks, beverages, and other convenience goods within its retail stores.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Murphy USA (MUSA) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers through its retail gasoline and convenience stores. Therefore, it does not have major corporate customers.

The company serves the following categories of individual customers:

  • Motorists and Commuters: Individuals who purchase motor fuel for their vehicles as part of their daily commute or travel. These customers are primarily driven by the need for gasoline and diesel.
  • Convenience Shoppers: Customers who stop at Murphy USA, Murphy Express, or QuickChek stores to purchase a variety of convenience merchandise, including snacks, beverages, tobacco products, lottery tickets, and other quick-stop items. These purchases may or may not be combined with fuel purchases.
  • Local Residents and Travelers: Individuals who frequent the stores for a quick stop, whether for fuel, coffee, a meal, or other essential items while on the road or as part of their routine within their local community.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Mindy K. West, President and Chief Executive Officer

Mindy K. West became President and Chief Executive Officer of Murphy USA Inc. effective January 1, 2026. She joined Murphy Oil Corporation, Murphy USA's former parent, in 1996 and held various positions in finance, human resources, and planning. In 2013, with the spin-off of Murphy USA, she was named Executive Vice President, CFO & Treasurer, and in 2017, she also took on the Fuels leadership role. She was elevated to Chief Operating Officer in February 2024 before her appointment as CEO.

Donald R. Smith Jr., Interim Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Donald R. Smith Jr. was appointed interim Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Murphy USA Inc. effective October 14, 2025. He has been with Murphy USA since its 2013 spin-off from Murphy Oil Corporation, initially serving as Vice President and Controller, and later as Chief Accounting Officer and Treasurer. Before joining Murphy USA, Mr. Smith spent over 14 years at KPMG, LLP, where he was a Senior Manager in the Audit and Assurance Practice.

Renee Bacon, Senior Vice President Sales & Operations

Renee Bacon is responsible for all Sales and Operations functions for both Murphy USA and QuickChek brands. Her responsibilities include store operations, asset protection, compliance, field readiness, and the store support call center.

Eric Bartko, Senior Vice President and Chief Customer Officer

Eric Bartko oversees the Strategy, Analytics, and Marketing organizations for both the Murphy USA and QuickChek banners.

Rob Chumley, Senior Vice President, Innovation

Rob Chumley leads the Innovation team and Digital Transformation initiatives across Murphy USA and QuickChek, which encompass Loyalty, Payments, and Customer Experience.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Murphy USA's business operations are primarily linked to the volatile nature of the fuel market, intense competition within the retail fuel and convenience store industry, and the company's significant reliance on its relationship with Walmart.

  1. Fuel Price Volatility and Margin Sensitivity: Murphy USA's profitability is highly susceptible to fluctuations in crude oil and gasoline prices and the resulting impact on retail fuel margins. The company's strategy of not hedging against commodity price changes increases its exposure to market volatility. Both high volatility, which can create uncertainty, and periods of low volatility, which can lead to compressed margins, can significantly affect operating results and overall profitability.
  2. Competition and Reliance on Walmart Relationship: The retail fuel and convenience store market is highly competitive, characterized by sensitivity to gas prices and pressure from numerous traditional and non-traditional retailers. A substantial portion of Murphy USA's stores are strategically located near Walmart stores, leveraging the high traffic these locations generate. Any adverse changes or deterioration in this critical relationship with Walmart, including the exercise of certain rights Walmart retains in its agreements, could significantly impact Murphy USA's operations and financial performance.
  3. Regulatory and Environmental Risks: Murphy USA faces ongoing risks related to changes in environmental laws, fuel standards, and tax regulations, which could lead to increased operational costs and potentially affect product demand. Furthermore, the company is subject to legal proceedings, including a lawsuit alleging damages from climate change, which could result in significant, unspecified damages and abatement costs.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs): The increasing adoption of electric vehicles directly threatens Murphy USA's core business of retail motor fuel products. As EV sales grow and charging infrastructure expands, demand for gasoline is projected to decline over time, reducing traffic to Murphy USA's gas stations and consequently impacting convenience store sales which often benefit from fuel customers.
  • Growth of On-Demand Convenience Delivery Services: The proliferation of delivery platforms (e.g., GoPuff, DoorDash, Uber Eats) specializing in quick delivery of convenience store items poses a direct threat to Murphy USA's in-store convenience merchandise sales. These services offer an alternative for consumers to obtain items without physically visiting a store, potentially reducing foot traffic and impulse purchases at Murphy USA locations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

For Murphy USA (MUSA), the addressable market for its main products and services in the U.S. is as follows:

  • Convenience Merchandise: The total in-store convenience store sales in the U.S. are estimated at $297 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow slowly in the coming years.
  • Retail Motor Fuel Products: null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Murphy USA (MUSA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. New Store Construction and Raze-and-Rebuilds: The company plans a significant expansion of its store network. For 2026, Murphy USA anticipates opening 45 to 55 new stores and undertaking up to 30 raze-and-rebuild projects. This aligns with their long-term goal of constructing over 500 new stores in the next decade. The maturation of these new store classes is expected to significantly contribute to EBITDA and, by extension, revenue growth from 2027 onwards.
  2. Merchandise Sales Growth and Enhanced Offerings: Murphy USA is focusing on increasing its merchandise contribution through an improved mix of products, particularly by expanding its food and beverage options and focusing on nicotine and non-nicotine categories. Robust promotional activity, steadfast category management, and digital initiatives that drive loyalty enrollments and merchandise transactions are also expected to support this growth. The company projected merchandise contribution for 2026 to range from $890 million to $900 million.
  3. Increased Retail Fuel Volumes from New Stores: While same-store sales volumes for fuel have seen some declines, the overall addition of new stores is projected to drive an increase in total retail fuel gallons sold. Murphy USA expects to sell just over 4.97 billion gallons of fuel in 2026, an increase from 4.85 billion gallons in 2025. This growth in volume from new, high-performing stores is anticipated to offset any legacy declines in older, smaller format locations.
  4. Operational Efficiency and Cost Management: Ongoing initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and controlling costs are expected to indirectly support revenue growth by improving profitability and potentially allowing for more competitive pricing. These efforts include improved store maintenance practices, loss prevention, and optimizing home office expenditures, which have resulted in contained operating expense growth. The company is also investing in proactive maintenance capital to avoid disruptions and improve store uptime, which is expected to yield savings in maintenance expenses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Murphy USA repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for a total of $652.0 million in 2025.
  • In 2024, the company repurchased slightly more than 938.5 thousand shares for a total of $446.6 million.
  • As of October 29, 2025, approximately $337 million remained available under the existing $1.5 billion 2023 share repurchase authorization, and a new authorization for up to $2.0 billion was approved to commence upon its completion and expire by December 31, 2030.

Share Issuance

  • Murphy USA has consistently reduced its shares outstanding through repurchases, with shares outstanding declining by 6.31% in 2025, 4.58% in 2024, and 8.8% in 2023.

Outbound Investments

  • On January 29, 2021, Murphy USA acquired 100% of Quick Chek Corporation, a convenience store chain with 156 stores at the time of acquisition.
  • The company also engages in recent "tuck-in acquisitions," such as targeted store purchases in Colorado, to allow for strategic expansion in key markets.

Capital Expenditures

  • Total capital spending in 2025 was $432 million, following a budget of just over $500 million in 2024.
  • For 2026, capital expenditures are expected to be between $475 million and $525 million.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures is on organic growth through new-to-industry (NTI) store construction (targeting 45-55 new stores annually) and raze-and-rebuild projects (up to 30 annually), along with increased proactive maintenance investments.

Better Bets vs. Murphy USA (MUSA)

Peer Outperformance in Automotive Retail

MUSA has outperformed 100% of its 16 Automotive Retail peers over 5Y. Automotive Retail ranks 7th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Automotive Retail constituents that MUSA has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
100%
of 18 industry peers · 45.0% return
3Y
82%
of 17 industry peers · 50.6% return
5Y
100%
of 16 industry peers · 211.4% return
No Automotive Retail peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten MUSA by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Automotive Retail is MUSA's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -21.4%71.3%83.2% CVSA 246% · PRDO 229% · GHC 123%
Homebuilding 17 -14.6%33.2%22.8% GRBK 144% · PHM 136% · TOL 134%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 12.6%49.1%22.2% RCL 256% · MAR 171% · HLT 160%
Specialty Stores 7 11.1%39.6%16.5% ASO 47% · DKS 29% · FIVE 17%
Home Improvement Retail 4 -17.6%14.2%-3.5% HD -2% · LOW -5% · FND -67%
Home Furnishings 3 -10.2%48.1%-4.7% SGI 39% · MHK -38%
Automotive Retail ← 17 -17.9%3.8%-9.8% MUSA 211% · PAG 117% · ORLY 102%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -14.7%21.9%-14.8% HRB 127% · FTDR 87% · SCI 40%
Footwear 9 64.5%43.9%-20.3% DECK 35% · SHOO 14% · CROX -20%
Restaurants 37 -10.3%-6.0%-23.7% EAT 324% · CAKE 211% · TXRH 107%
Distributors 4 -15.4%-18.4%-24.6% ARMK 120% · GPC 7% · LKQ -56%
Apparel Retail 26 2.1%-0.5%-40.9% ANF 315% · TJX 142% · ROST 123%
Household Appliances 18 -3.1%4.3%-41.8%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 15.3%58.6%-42.1% BBY 1% · GME -42%
Leisure Facilities 12 4.0%-3.1%-42.5% LTH 130% · OSW 118% · PLNT -35%
Leisure Products 14 -15.4%-17.2%-43.4% GOLF 72% · HAS 51% · MAT -17%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 -1.2%16.6%-46.7% RL 245% · TPR 238% · KTB 74%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -14.6%-24.2%-49.0% MCRI 88% · BYD 12% · RRR 9%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 39 -14.3%-15.0%-49.8% MOD 1160% · GTX 235% · BWA 52%
Broadline Retail 14 -7.8%25.4%-53.0% EBAY 76% · AMZN 53% · OLLI 37%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -75.0%-51.4%-75.5% GM 36% · TSLA 30% · F -2%
Other Specialty Retail 17 -31.8%-34.4%-78.8% ULTA 63% · TSCO -15% · BBWI -66%
Consumer Electronics 11 -39.9%-29.0%-79.3% GRMN 97% · SONO -46%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MUSACASYDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Delek US ARKO  
Mkt Price541.01692.7879.993.98310.50
Mkt Cap10.025.64.90.47.4
Rev LTM21,47918,67212,0567,93315,364
Op Inc LTM9411,097601113771
FCF LTM54264966737595
FCF 3Y Avg4605698566273
CFO LTM9851,3891,2711551,128
CFO 3Y Avg8931,172572188733

Growth & Margins

MUSACASYDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Delek US ARKO  
Rev Chg LTM10.3%13.8%11.4%-2.1%10.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.8%8.8%-10.2%-4.6%-2.7%
Rev Chg Q36.0%24.3%47.8%17.4%30.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.2%6.3%12.3%4.6%7.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM27.2%29.1%224.2%15.0%28.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg4.7%18.9%-46.1%-7.1%-1.2%
Op Mgn LTM4.4%5.9%5.0%1.4%4.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.0%5.3%0.5%1.3%2.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-0.0%2.5%-0.4%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.6%7.4%10.5%2.0%6.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.3%7.0%4.3%2.2%4.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%3.5%5.5%0.5%3.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.2%3.4%0.2%0.8%1.5%

Valuation

MUSACASYDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Delek US ARKO  
Mkt Cap10.025.64.90.47.4
P/S0.51.40.40.10.4
P/Op Inc10.623.38.24.09.4
P/EBIT10.823.37.34.09.1
P/E16.233.121.830.226.0
P/CFO10.118.43.92.97.0
Total Yield6.7%3.3%6.0%6.3%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.3%1.3%3.0%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.0%3.0%2.3%11.4%4.0%
D/E0.30.10.75.20.5
Net D/E0.30.10.54.70.4

Returns

MUSACASYDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Delek US ARKO  
1M Rtn6.3%18.4%7.6%-6.0%6.9%
3M Rtn-12.3%-19.1%21.3%-51.0%-15.7%
6M Rtn4.3%-11.4%104.8%-38.0%-3.5%
12M Rtn46.2%26.8%142.8%-3.6%36.5%
3Y Rtn51.9%168.1%236.3%-44.0%110.0%
1M Excs Rtn7.8%19.8%10.5%-7.0%9.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.4%-24.2%20.5%-53.1%-20.3%
6M Excs Rtn-3.0%-18.7%97.3%-45.3%-10.9%
12M Excs Rtn32.2%9.5%124.6%-17.1%20.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-25.2%86.7%166.6%-120.4%30.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Marketing19,38420,24421,52923,44517,360
Other revenues01011
Total19,38420,24421,52923,44617,360


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20232022202120202019
Marketing631741473442215
Other revenues-74-68-76-56-60
Total557673397386155


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Marketing4,5354,3274,0623,7943,569
Reconciling Items191215278329 
Other revenues    479
Total4,7264,5424,3404,1234,048


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$536.52 
Market Cap ($ Bil)9.9 
First Trading Date04/09/2010 
Distance from 52W High-13.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$529.94$512.22
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA1.2%4.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility34.7%39.6%
Downside Capture-34.02-68.30
Upside Capture-98.42-10.33
Correlation (S&P 500)-25.1%-20.1%
MUSA Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.99-0.85-1.23-1.01-0.670.08
Up Beta0.540.400.29-0.90-1.180.07
Down Beta-1.96-1.00-1.24-1.39-0.630.07
Up Capture-103%-148%-138%-50%-17%4%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days10163064137395
Down Capture-103%-23%-199%-173%-131%2%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days12263462115356

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MUSA
MUSA45.1%39.6%1.02-
Sector ETF (XLY)-1.6%19.2%-0.22-16.2%
Equity (SPY)16.2%12.7%0.90-20.2%
Gold (GLD)-6.0%29.0%-0.22-7.1%
Commodities (DBC)50.2%20.7%1.8530.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.1%13.8%-0.03-1.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-25.3%43.4%-0.551.7%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MUSA
MUSA27.5%31.2%0.81-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.5%24.1%0.1815.3%
Equity (SPY)13.6%17.1%0.6117.7%
Gold (GLD)17.7%18.9%0.76-0.5%
Commodities (DBC)9.5%19.5%0.3710.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.1%18.9%-0.0520.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.6%51.7%0.335.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MUSA
MUSA22.9%31.9%0.71-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.5%22.2%0.5127.5%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7330.3%
Gold (GLD)12.2%16.4%0.610.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.3712.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2128.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.6%66.2%1.026.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520266.5%
Average Daily Volume0.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity18.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares4.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/8/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/2026-7.7%-5.9%-10.0%
4/29/202614.3%12.0%-1.5%
2/4/2026-10.7%-14.4%-1.3%
10/29/2025-7.3%-6.7%-1.5%
7/30/2025-11.2%-9.9%-8.1%
5/7/2025-12.3%-13.1%-15.9%
2/5/2025-3.2%-4.6%-11.6%
10/30/20243.3%8.2%16.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101213
# Negative131110
Median Positive2.7%2.7%4.5%
Median Negative-3.7%-5.9%-6.9%
Max Positive14.3%12.0%16.0%
Max Negative-12.3%-14.4%-15.9%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/2026-7.7%-5.9%-10.0%
4/29/202614.3%12.0%-1.5%
2/4/2026-10.7%-14.4%-1.3%
10/29/2025-7.3%-6.7%-1.5%
7/30/2025-11.2%-9.9%-8.1%
5/7/2025-12.3%-13.1%-15.9%
2/5/2025-3.2%-4.6%-11.6%
10/30/20243.3%8.2%16.0%
7/31/20242.0%-1.0%1.2%
5/1/2024-3.7%-1.0%6.7%
2/7/20249.2%6.5%13.4%
11/1/20231.6%0.1%1.6%
8/2/2023-1.3%2.9%6.3%
5/2/20231.6%2.9%1.9%
2/1/2023-3.6%-2.6%-4.0%
10/26/20225.5%6.1%1.3%
5/3/20224.9%1.0%5.8%
2/2/2022-4.8%-8.0%-8.0%
10/27/2021-1.6%2.4%8.1%
7/28/2021-0.4%1.7%3.1%
4/28/2021-2.5%-3.2%-5.9%
1/20/20210.2%0.4%0.2%
10/28/20201.7%0.0%4.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101213
# Negative131110
Median Positive2.7%2.7%4.5%
Median Negative-3.7%-5.9%-6.9%
Max Positive14.3%12.0%16.0%
Max Negative-12.3%-14.4%-15.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/16/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/15/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/16/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/15/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/17/202210-K
09/30/202110/28/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202104/29/202110-Q
12/31/202002/19/202110-K
09/30/202010/29/202010-Q
06/30/202007/30/202010-Q
03/31/202004/30/202010-Q
12/31/201902/18/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/4/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New StoresReported4550 0 AffirmedGuidance: 50 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported 1.25 Bil    
2026 Net IncomeReported 636.00 Mil    
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported475.00 Mil500.00 Mil    


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 All-in Fuel MarginsReported3500.0%3750.0%4000.0%   
2026 New Store OpeningsReported4550550 AffirmedGuidance: 50 for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New StoresReported4550550 AffirmedGuidance: 50 for 2026
2026 Raze-and-RebuildsReported01530   
2026 Retail fuel volume per storeReported233235237   
2026 Merchandise contributionReported890.00 Mil895.00 Mil900.00 Mil   
2026 SG&AReported240.00 Mil245.00 Mil250.00 Mil   
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported 1.00 Bil    
2026 Effective Tax RateReported23.0%24.0%25.0%   
2026 Net IncomeReported 439.00 Mil    
2026 Capital expendituresReported475.00 Mil500.00 Mil525.00 Mil   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New-to-Industry (NTI) LocationsReported 50 0 AffirmedGuidance: 50 for 2026
2026 Leverage RatioReported 2.5    
2030 Share RepurchasesReported 2.00 Bil    

Insider Activity

Updated 10/1/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Turner, Rosemary DirectSell8202026571.88966552,436256,774Form
2Landen, Diane N DirectSell6092026547.253,0001,641,75029,464,487Form
3Keyes, James W DirectSell6032026511.002,3391,195,2297,852,026Form
4Bacon, Renee MSVP, Chief Retail OfficerDirectSell5272026529.441,050555,9121,632,422Form
5Emery, Keith ASVP, Chief Fuels OfficerDirectSell5182026574.49517  Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Turner, Rosemary DirectSell8202026571.88966552,436256,774Form
2Landen, Diane N DirectSell6092026547.253,0001,641,75029,464,487Form
3Keyes, James W DirectSell6032026511.002,3391,195,2297,852,026Form
4Bacon, Renee MSVP, Chief Retail OfficerDirectSell5272026529.441,050555,9121,632,422Form
5Emery, Keith ASVP, Chief Fuels OfficerDirectSell5182026574.49517  Form
6Woodward, Scott GSVP, Chief Merchandising Off.DirectSell5062026600.5015894,879285,838Form
7Murphy, Robert Madison TrustSell5062026596.9641,50024,773,950204,287,783Form
8Woodward, Scott GSVP MerchandisingSpouse's 401(k) PlanSell3092026422.44137  Form
9Chumley, Robert JSVP InnovationDirectSell3092026420.005,0382,115,9602,523,456Form
10Emery, Keith ASVP FuelsDirectSell2272026382.53899  Form
11Phillips, Jeanne Linder DirectSell2242026395.191,155456,444609,778Form
12Bacon, Renee MSVP, Sales & OperationsDirectSell2242026388.612,8441,105,2071,198,201Form
13Bartko, Eric JSVP & Chief Customer OfficerDirectSell2132026404.84345139,670142,504Form
14Bacon, Renee MSVP, Sales & OperationsDirectSell2132026386.091,219470,6442,288,471Form
15Bacon, Renee MSVP, Sales & OperationsDirectSell2102026373.39353131,8072,213,195Form
16West, Malynda KPresident & CEODirectSell2062026450.003,9671,785,15052,824,889Form
17Clyde, R AndrewChief Executive OfficerDirectSell11212025381.3324,7339,431,43549,963,547Form
18Clyde, R AndrewChief Executive OfficerLimited PartnershipSell11212025381.3316,2506,196,61222,564,059Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 22, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Southernsun Asset Management, LLC$41.9 Mil6.1%31TRIM -8.2%13F
Sourcerock Group LLC$12.3 Mil0.5%39New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Sourcerock Group LLC$12.3 Mil0.5%39New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Southernsun Asset Management, LLC$41.9 Mil6.1%31TRIM -8.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Southernsun Asset Management, LLC$41.9 Mil6.1%31TRIM -8.2%13F
Sourcerock Group LLC$12.3 Mil0.5%39New13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/21/2026