Casey's General Stores (CASY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $555.0 | Market Cap: $20.6 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Casey's General Stores (CASY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $555.0Market Cap: $20.6 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CASY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for Casey's General Stores (CASY) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. As an AI, I cannot provide an explanation for a specific past stock movement (12.4%) within a future timeframe. However, the search results provide some analyst forecasts and company outlooks for fiscal year 2025 and 2026, which may influence future stock performance.
Here are some key points from the available information that could generally drive stock performance, though not specifically explaining a 12.4% move in the requested future period:
1. Strong Financial Performance and Growth Plans: Casey's General Stores reported strong fiscal year 2025 results, with diluted EPS up 9% to $14.64 and EBITDA rising 13% to $1.2 billion. The company also announced a strategic plan for FY24-FY26, aiming for 8-10% annual EBITDA growth and an expansion of approximately 500 stores through new builds and acquisitions. In fiscal 2025 alone, Casey's built or acquired a total of 270 stores, with 198 added through the acquisition of Fikes Wholesale and its CEFCO stores. For fiscal year 2026, Casey's expects to open at least 80 new stores.
2. Exceeding Earnings Expectations: In Q4 2025, Casey's posted earnings per share of $2.63, significantly exceeding the expected $2.03, and revenue of $3.99 billion against a forecast of $3.95 billion. Additionally, for Q1 fiscal 2026 (ended July 31, 2025), diluted EPS was $5.77, up 19.5% from the prior year, with net income at $215.4 million and EBITDA at $414.3 million, also up 19.5% and 19.8% respectively.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CASY Return | 13% | 11% | 14% | 23% | 45% | 44% | 270% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 61% | 34% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 187% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CASY Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 70% | 55% | 53% | 48% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CASY Max Drawdown | -24% | -1% | -13% | -8% | -1% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -3% | -8% | -15% | -10% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MPC, MUSA, WMK, IMKTA, KR. See CASY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CASY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 233 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MPC, MUSA, WMK, IMKTA, KR
In The Past
Casey's General Stores's stock fell -24.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -24.1% loss requires a 31.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CASY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Casey's General Stores
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 133.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.1 |
| Rev LTM | 17,945 |
| Op Inc LTM | 795 |
| FCF LTM | 515 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 460 |
| CFO LTM | 1,008 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 909 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.1 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 12.4 |
| P/E | 19.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9082025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6232025 | 10-K 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12092024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6242024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3112024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12112023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9112023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6232023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3072023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6242022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3082022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12072021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |