Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $573.94 | Market Cap: $132.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $573.94Market Cap: $132.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.4 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Key risksLMT key risks include [1] significant financial losses from cost overruns and delays on critical contracts, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.4 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Key risksLMT key risks include [1] significant financial losses from cost overruns and delays on critical contracts, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 11/5/2026
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Full-Year Guidance. Lockheed Martin reported robust third-quarter 2026 results on October 22, 2026, with sales increasing 11% year-over-year to $20.7 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 15% to $7.97, beating the consensus estimate of $7.52. This strong performance, which saw growth across all four business segments, led the company to raise its full-year 2026 guidance for sales to between $80 billion and $82 billion, EPS to between $30.35 and $30.75, and free cash flow to between $7.8 billion and $8.0 billion for the second consecutive quarter. This positive company-specific news provided significant upward momentum for the stock.
2. Record Backlog and Strategic Contract Wins, Partially Offset by F-35 Program Challenges. The company achieved a record backlog of $292.0 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), a 27% sequential increase, largely driven by a significant multi-year PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor award valued at $52.5 billion. Additionally, in September 2026, Lockheed Martin secured a $1.2 billion contract for the production of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) Increment 2, and in late September 2026, it received a Phase II contract for the PAC-3 MSE Navy program, building on a prior $93 million contract. These major awards underscore sustained demand for its defense products. However, these positives were somewhat tempered by challenges such as the delayed timing of some F-35 awards and unfavorable profit adjustments on F-16 and C-130 programs, which slightly lowered Aeronautics guidance for the full year.
Show more
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Full-Year Guidance. Lockheed Martin reported robust third-quarter 2026 results on October 22, 2026, with sales increasing 11% year-over-year to $20.7 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 15% to $7.97, beating the consensus estimate of $7.52. This strong performance, which saw growth across all four business segments, led the company to raise its full-year 2026 guidance for sales to between $80 billion and $82 billion, EPS to between $30.35 and $30.75, and free cash flow to between $7.8 billion and $8.0 billion for the second consecutive quarter. This positive company-specific news provided significant upward momentum for the stock.
2. Record Backlog and Strategic Contract Wins, Partially Offset by F-35 Program Challenges. The company achieved a record backlog of $292.0 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), a 27% sequential increase, largely driven by a significant multi-year PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor award valued at $52.5 billion. Additionally, in September 2026, Lockheed Martin secured a $1.2 billion contract for the production of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) Increment 2, and in late September 2026, it received a Phase II contract for the PAC-3 MSE Navy program, building on a prior $93 million contract. These major awards underscore sustained demand for its defense products. However, these positives were somewhat tempered by challenges such as the delayed timing of some F-35 awards and unfavorable profit adjustments on F-16 and C-130 programs, which slightly lowered Aeronautics guidance for the full year.
Show more
Updated on 11/5/2026
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Full-Year Guidance. Lockheed Martin reported robust third-quarter 2026 results on October 22, 2026, with sales increasing 11% year-over-year to $20.7 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 15% to $7.97, beating the consensus estimate of $7.52. This strong performance, which saw growth across all four business segments, led the company to raise its full-year 2026 guidance for sales to between $80 billion and $82 billion, EPS to between $30.35 and $30.75, and free cash flow to between $7.8 billion and $8.0 billion for the second consecutive quarter. This positive company-specific news provided significant upward momentum for the stock.
2. Record Backlog and Strategic Contract Wins, Partially Offset by F-35 Program Challenges. The company achieved a record backlog of $292.0 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), a 27% sequential increase, largely driven by a significant multi-year PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor award valued at $52.5 billion. Additionally, in September 2026, Lockheed Martin secured a $1.2 billion contract for the production of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) Increment 2, and in late September 2026, it received a Phase II contract for the PAC-3 MSE Navy program, building on a prior $93 million contract. These major awards underscore sustained demand for its defense products. However, these positives were somewhat tempered by challenges such as the delayed timing of some F-35 awards and unfavorable profit adjustments on F-16 and C-130 programs, which slightly lowered Aeronautics guidance for the full year.
3. Macroeconomic Headwinds and U.S. Defense Budget Uncertainty. Despite strong company performance, the stock's overall stability was influenced by broader macroeconomic and political factors. Following the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026, investor concerns emerged regarding a potential reduction in the proposed fiscal year 2027 defense budget by a Democratic Congress, with reports suggesting a cut from $1.5 trillion to $1.1 trillion. Furthermore, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding a continuing resolution (CR) for fiscal year 2027 poses a risk, as it can legally prevent new multi-year procurement contracts and new program starts, potentially delaying the realization of the F-35 framework agreement and the planned munitions production scale-up. These governmental funding uncertainties created a cautious sentiment that counterbalanced the positive company-specific developments.
Show less
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Full-Year Guidance. Lockheed Martin reported robust third-quarter 2026 results on October 22, 2026, with sales increasing 11% year-over-year to $20.7 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 15% to $7.97, beating the consensus estimate of $7.52. This strong performance, which saw growth across all four business segments, led the company to raise its full-year 2026 guidance for sales to between $80 billion and $82 billion, EPS to between $30.35 and $30.75, and free cash flow to between $7.8 billion and $8.0 billion for the second consecutive quarter. This positive company-specific news provided significant upward momentum for the stock.
2. Record Backlog and Strategic Contract Wins, Partially Offset by F-35 Program Challenges. The company achieved a record backlog of $292.0 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), a 27% sequential increase, largely driven by a significant multi-year PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor award valued at $52.5 billion. Additionally, in September 2026, Lockheed Martin secured a $1.2 billion contract for the production of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) Increment 2, and in late September 2026, it received a Phase II contract for the PAC-3 MSE Navy program, building on a prior $93 million contract. These major awards underscore sustained demand for its defense products. However, these positives were somewhat tempered by challenges such as the delayed timing of some F-35 awards and unfavorable profit adjustments on F-16 and C-130 programs, which slightly lowered Aeronautics guidance for the full year.
3. Macroeconomic Headwinds and U.S. Defense Budget Uncertainty. Despite strong company performance, the stock's overall stability was influenced by broader macroeconomic and political factors. Following the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026, investor concerns emerged regarding a potential reduction in the proposed fiscal year 2027 defense budget by a Democratic Congress, with reports suggesting a cut from $1.5 trillion to $1.1 trillion. Furthermore, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding a continuing resolution (CR) for fiscal year 2027 poses a risk, as it can legally prevent new multi-year procurement contracts and new program starts, potentially delaying the realization of the F-35 framework agreement and the planned munitions production scale-up. These governmental funding uncertainties created a cautious sentiment that counterbalanced the positive company-specific developments.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.5% change in LMT stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 579.16 | 576.16 | -0.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 77,014 | 79,116 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.2 | 20.4 | -3.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 230 | 230 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | -0.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | -7.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.7% | 23.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.7% change in LMT stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 511.44 | 576.16 | 12.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 75,106 | 79,116 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 8.2% | 29.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.5 | 20.4 | -16.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 230 | 230 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | 12.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | -9.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.7% | 26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.2% change in LMT stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 479.49 | 576.16 | 20.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 73,349 | 79,116 | 7.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.7% | 8.2% | 43.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.5 | 20.4 | -23.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 232 | 230 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | 20.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | -2.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.7% | 28.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.3% change in LMT stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 419.71 | 576.16 | 37.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 67,688 | 79,116 | 16.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 8.2% | -20.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.0 | 20.4 | 35.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 249 | 230 | 8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | 37.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 5.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.8% | 27.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LMT Return | 3% | 40% | -4% | 10% | 2% | 21% | 90% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 36% | -5% | 95% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LMT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 47% | 58% | 65% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LMT Max Drawdown | -17% | -17% | -20% | -21% | -18% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -24% | -24% | -22% | -16% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NOC, RTX, BA, GD, LHX. See LMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 707 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -16.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 519 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1282 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Lockheed Martin's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | LMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 707 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1282 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Lockheed Martin's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Lockheed Martin Corporation is a leading global security and aerospace company specializing in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products, and services. The company's operations span four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space, each contributing to its comprehensive defense and security portfolio.
Through its Aeronautics segment, Lockheed Martin produces iconic combat and air mobility aircraft, including unmanned aerial vehicles. The Missiles and Fire Control segment delivers critical air and missile defense systems, tactical missiles, and precision strike weapons. Its Rotary and Mission Systems segment offers military and commercial helicopters, advanced radar systems, sea and land-based missile defense, and sophisticated command, control, and cyber solutions. Finally, the Space segment is responsible for satellites, space transportation systems, strategic missile systems, and classified national security programs, integrating space and ground-based intelligence gathering.
Lockheed Martin's primary customer is the U.S. government, for which it provides a vast array of defense, security, and aerospace solutions. The company also conducts significant foreign military sales, which are primarily contracted and facilitated through the U.S. government, extending its reach to allied nations globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Lockheed Martin (LMT):
- The Boeing of advanced military aircraft, missiles, and space systems.
- The Apple of high-tech defense and national security solutions.
- The General Motors for national defense systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Aircraft: Designs and manufactures combat, air mobility, and other specialized aircraft.
- Unmanned Systems: Develops unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned ground vehicles for various missions.
- Missile Systems: Provides a range of air and missile defense systems, tactical missiles, precision strike weapons, and strategic missile systems.
- Fire Control & Radar Systems: Develops advanced systems for target detection, tracking, engagement, and various radar capabilities.
- Naval Systems: Constructs surface ships and integrates sea-based missile defense systems.
- Rotary Wing Aircraft: Manufactures military and commercial helicopters.
- Space Systems: Offers satellites, space transportation systems, and classified national security space systems.
- Command, Control & Cyber Solutions: Delivers integrated command and control systems, mission solutions, and cybersecurity services.
- Simulation & Training Solutions: Provides advanced simulation and training systems for defense and commercial applications.
- Logistics & Engineering Support: Offers comprehensive logistics, readiness, mission operations, and engineering support services for complex systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lockheed Martin (LMT) primarily serves the U.S. government. It also engages in foreign military sales, which are contracted through the U.S. government, indicating that foreign governments are also significant customers, indirectly.
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James Taiclet, Chairman, President & CEO
James Taiclet became Chairman, President, and CEO of Lockheed Martin in June 2020. He joined Lockheed Martin's board of directors in January 2018. Prior to Lockheed Martin, Taiclet served as Chairman, President, and CEO of American Tower Corporation, a global real estate investment trust, where he significantly grew the company's market capitalization from approximately $2 billion to over $100 billion and transformed it into a global industry player. His career also includes leadership roles as President of Honeywell Aerospace Services and Vice President of Engine Services at Pratt & Whitney, responsible for military and commercial jet engine overhaul and repair. Taiclet is a U.S. Air Force veteran, serving as an aircraft commander and instructor pilot, and a Gulf War veteran, logging over 5,000 flying hours, primarily in the Lockheed C-141B Starlifter. He is a distinguished graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy with degrees in engineering and international relations, and holds a master's degree from Princeton University.
Evan Scott, Chief Financial Officer
Evan Scott was appointed Chief Financial Officer for Lockheed Martin in April 2025. A 26-year veteran of Lockheed Martin, Scott is responsible for the corporation's financial strategies, processes, and operations. His previous roles within the company include Vice President and CFO of Lockheed Martin Space, Vice President and Treasurer, and Vice President and CFO of Missiles and Fire Control. He is a graduate of Lockheed Martin's Finance Leadership Development Program and Finance Leadership Academy. Scott holds a bachelor's degree in finance and accounting from Syracuse University and a master's in business administration in finance from the University of Maryland. He succeeded Jesus "Jay" Malave, who left to pursue other opportunities.
Frank St. John, Chief Operating Officer
Frank St. John has served as Chief Operating Officer for Lockheed Martin since June 2020, overseeing the strategic, operational, and financial performance of the corporation's four major business areas. He has dedicated his entire career to Lockheed Martin, joining as an engineering intern more than 30 years ago. Prior to his current role, St. John led the Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) business area from 2019 to 2020 and the Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) business area from 2018 to 2019. His other positions at MFC included executive vice president and deputy of programs, vice president of Tactical Missiles/Combat Maneuver Systems, and general manager for the MFC Orlando campus. St. John holds a bachelor's and master's degree in electrical engineering from the University of Central Florida.
Stephanie C. Hill, President, Rotary and Mission Systems
Stephanie C. Hill is the President of the Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) business area at Lockheed Martin. She joined Lockheed Martin in 1987 as a software engineer and has since held increasingly responsible leadership positions. These roles include Senior Vice President of Enterprise Business Transformation, Deputy Executive Vice President of RMS, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Business Development, and Vice President and General Manager of Cyber, Ships and Advanced Technologies. Hill is a member of the board of directors of S&P Global and The Executive Leadership Council. She graduated with high honors from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, with a Bachelor of Science degree in computer science and economics, and received an honorary doctorate from the university in 2017.
Robert Lightfoot, President, Space
Robert Lightfoot is the President of Lockheed Martin Space, a more than $11 billion enterprise providing advanced technology systems for national security, civil, and commercial customers. He joined Lockheed Martin in 2019, initially serving as vice president of Operations and then vice president of Strategy and Business Development for Lockheed Martin Space. Before joining Lockheed Martin, Lightfoot had a distinguished 29-year career at NASA, where he rose to the agency's highest-ranking civil service position as Associate Administrator and also served as Acting NASA Administrator. He also served as director of the Marshall Space Flight Center and director of Propulsion Test at Stennis Space Center. Lightfoot earned a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Alabama.
James Taiclet became Chairman, President, and CEO of Lockheed Martin in June 2020. He joined Lockheed Martin's board of directors in January 2018. Prior to Lockheed Martin, Taiclet served as Chairman, President, and CEO of American Tower Corporation, a global real estate investment trust, where he significantly grew the company's market capitalization from approximately $2 billion to over $100 billion and transformed it into a global industry player. His career also includes leadership roles as President of Honeywell Aerospace Services and Vice President of Engine Services at Pratt & Whitney, responsible for military and commercial jet engine overhaul and repair. Taiclet is a U.S. Air Force veteran, serving as an aircraft commander and instructor pilot, and a Gulf War veteran, logging over 5,000 flying hours, primarily in the Lockheed C-141B Starlifter. He is a distinguished graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy with degrees in engineering and international relations, and holds a master's degree from Princeton University.
Evan Scott, Chief Financial Officer
Evan Scott was appointed Chief Financial Officer for Lockheed Martin in April 2025. A 26-year veteran of Lockheed Martin, Scott is responsible for the corporation's financial strategies, processes, and operations. His previous roles within the company include Vice President and CFO of Lockheed Martin Space, Vice President and Treasurer, and Vice President and CFO of Missiles and Fire Control. He is a graduate of Lockheed Martin's Finance Leadership Development Program and Finance Leadership Academy. Scott holds a bachelor's degree in finance and accounting from Syracuse University and a master's in business administration in finance from the University of Maryland. He succeeded Jesus "Jay" Malave, who left to pursue other opportunities.
Frank St. John, Chief Operating Officer
Frank St. John has served as Chief Operating Officer for Lockheed Martin since June 2020, overseeing the strategic, operational, and financial performance of the corporation's four major business areas. He has dedicated his entire career to Lockheed Martin, joining as an engineering intern more than 30 years ago. Prior to his current role, St. John led the Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) business area from 2019 to 2020 and the Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) business area from 2018 to 2019. His other positions at MFC included executive vice president and deputy of programs, vice president of Tactical Missiles/Combat Maneuver Systems, and general manager for the MFC Orlando campus. St. John holds a bachelor's and master's degree in electrical engineering from the University of Central Florida.
Stephanie C. Hill, President, Rotary and Mission Systems
Stephanie C. Hill is the President of the Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) business area at Lockheed Martin. She joined Lockheed Martin in 1987 as a software engineer and has since held increasingly responsible leadership positions. These roles include Senior Vice President of Enterprise Business Transformation, Deputy Executive Vice President of RMS, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Business Development, and Vice President and General Manager of Cyber, Ships and Advanced Technologies. Hill is a member of the board of directors of S&P Global and The Executive Leadership Council. She graduated with high honors from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, with a Bachelor of Science degree in computer science and economics, and received an honorary doctorate from the university in 2017.
Robert Lightfoot, President, Space
Robert Lightfoot is the President of Lockheed Martin Space, a more than $11 billion enterprise providing advanced technology systems for national security, civil, and commercial customers. He joined Lockheed Martin in 2019, initially serving as vice president of Operations and then vice president of Strategy and Business Development for Lockheed Martin Space. Before joining Lockheed Martin, Lightfoot had a distinguished 29-year career at NASA, where he rose to the agency's highest-ranking civil service position as Associate Administrator and also served as Acting NASA Administrator. He also served as director of the Marshall Space Flight Center and director of Propulsion Test at Stennis Space Center. Lightfoot earned a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Alabama.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Lockheed Martin's business:
- Reliance on Government Contracts and Regulatory Compliance: Lockheed Martin's business is heavily dependent on contracts with the U.S. government and foreign military sales, exposing it to risks associated with government funding levels, budget cycles, policy changes, and the U.S. government's ability to terminate contracts for convenience. Failure to comply with extensive laws and regulations governing government contracts could also lead to significant penalties, reputational damage, and exclusion from key markets.
- Supply Chain Dependencies and Geopolitical Sourcing Risks: The company faces significant risks related to its supply chain, particularly its reliance on critical materials like rare earth metals for key programs such as the F-35 Lightning II and missile defense systems. New U.S. defense procurement rules, effective in 2027, will tighten restrictions on materials sourced from certain foreign supply chains, notably those linked to China, which could disrupt production and delivery timelines if domestic processing capacity for these materials does not scale adequately.
- Program Performance Issues and Internal Control Deficiencies: Lockheed Martin has recently faced significant financial losses in its Aeronautics and Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) segments, attributed to "performance issues" and problems with specific programs like the Canadian Maritime Helicopter Program. A securities class action lawsuit alleges that the company had inadequate internal controls to assess program risks and overstated its ability to deliver on contracts, leading to substantial pre-tax losses and significant drops in stock price.
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The rise of commercial space companies, particularly SpaceX, presents a clear emerging threat to Lockheed Martin. SpaceX's advancements in reusable rocket technology and significantly lower launch costs have disrupted the traditional space launch market, directly impacting United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture co-owned by Lockheed Martin and Boeing, which has historically been a key provider of launch services for the U.S. government. This shift challenges ULA's dominance and, by extension, Lockheed Martin's revenue streams and market position in the launch services sector. Additionally, the broader trend of commercial players developing more agile, cost-effective satellite technologies and space services could challenge Lockheed Martin's traditional role in satellite manufacturing and integration for certain applications within its Space segment.
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Lockheed Martin's main products and services operate within several large addressable markets, primarily global in scope.
-
Aeronautics Segment:
- For military aircraft, including combat and air mobility aircraft, the global market size is estimated at USD 50.53 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 76.17 billion by 2034.
- The global market for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones surpassed USD 42.39 billion in 2025 and is projected to cross USD 191.89 billion by 2035.
-
Missiles and Fire Control Segment:
- The global air defense system market size was valued at approximately USD 46.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 83.97 billion by 2034.
- The global missiles market, which includes tactical missiles and air-to-ground precision strike weapon systems, was valued at USD 64.26 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 122.48 billion by 2034.
-
Rotary and Mission Systems Segment:
- The global military helicopter market size was calculated at USD 35.95 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 46.11 billion by 2035.
- The global warship and naval vessels market size was valued at USD 75.1 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 122.4 billion by 2034.
- The global military radars market size was valued at USD 17.5 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 24.1 billion by 2034.
- The global military cybersecurity market size was valued at USD 15.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 68.5 billion by 2033.
-
Space Segment:
- Global satellite manufacturing revenues grew to USD 20 billion in 2024.
- Worldwide commercial satellite launch revenues increased to USD 9.3 billion in 2024.
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Lockheed Martin (LMT) is anticipated to experience revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key factors:
- Robust and Expanding Backlog: Lockheed Martin has consistently reported a record-breaking backlog, reaching $160.6 billion by the end of 2023 and further increasing to an unprecedented $194 billion by the close of 2025. This substantial backlog signifies strong, sustained demand for the company's defense products and services and provides significant revenue visibility for future periods.
- Increased Production and Deliveries of Key Programs: Growth is expected from higher production and delivery volumes across major programs. The Aeronautics segment, particularly the F-35 program, is a significant contributor, with higher volumes in production, development, and sustainment contracts. The Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment is also experiencing production ramps for critical tactical and strike missile systems such as Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), PAC-3, and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). Lockheed Martin delivered 191 F-35 jets and 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025, setting new records, with plans to boost PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units annually through multi-year agreements.
- Strategic Investments in Advanced Technologies and Capacity Expansion: Lockheed Martin is making substantial internal investments, projected to be around $5 billion for capital expenditures and research and development in fiscal year 2026. These investments are aimed at enhancing production capacity to meet the surging demand reflected in its backlog and advancing its "21st Century Security®" initiative, which focuses on developing resilient, multi-domain network solutions and other advanced defense technologies. The Space segment is also seeing increased net sales due to higher volume on strategic and missile defense programs, including Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM), hypersonics, Next Generation Interceptor (NGI), Transport Layer, and GPS III programs.
- Continued Demand Driven by Geopolitical Landscape and Defense Spending: Global geopolitical tensions and an emphasis on national security priorities continue to drive demand for Lockheed Martin's advanced defense technologies. The approval of defense budgets, such as the FY24 defense budget, with robust funding for munitions multi-year procurements, underscores ongoing governmental support and requirements that align with Lockheed Martin's capabilities. This sustained demand translates into new orders and a favorable operating environment for the company.
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Share Repurchases
- Lockheed Martin repurchased $3.0 billion of common stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $3.7 billion of common stock in 2024.
- In 2023, share repurchases totaled $6.0 billion.
- As of October 2025, the board authorized an additional $2 billion for share repurchases, bringing the total authorization for future repurchases to approximately $9.1 billion.
Share Issuance
- Lockheed Martin's shares outstanding have consistently declined, with a 2.38% decrease in 2025 from 2024, and a 4.78% decline in 2024 from 2023, indicating no significant share issuances.
Outbound Investments
- Lockheed Martin submitted a bid to acquire Terran Orbital in March 2024.
- In December 2024, Lockheed Martin formed a subsidiary, Astris AI, to assist U.S. defense companies in incorporating artificial intelligence into their operations.
- The company abandoned its proposed $4.4 billion acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne in February 2022 due to regulatory disapproval.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $1.6 billion in 2025, and the company invested more than $3.5 billion during 2025 in production capacity and next-generation technologies.
- In 2024, capital expenditures amounted to $1.685 billion, with over $3 billion invested in research and development and capital investment.
- Lockheed Martin's capital expenditures were $1.691 billion in 2023, and the company invested $1.7 billion in capital expenditures to advance 21st Century Security capabilities.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to be between $2.5 billion and $2.8 billion, representing a significant increase aimed at meeting customer demand for munitions and investing in R&D.
Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
LMT has outperformed 58% of its 53 Aerospace & Defense peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are ATI and DCO. Aerospace & Defense ranks 4th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Aerospace & Defense constituents that LMT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
83%
of 70 industry peers · 24.9% return
3Y
42%
of 59 industry peers · 38.3% return
5Y
58%
of 53 industry peers · 93.8% return
Aerospace & Defense peers with revenue growth within 4pp of LMT's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 5.4% | 20.4x | 24.9% | 38.3% | 93.8% | — |
| ATI | ATI | 6.8% | 41.2x | 74.5% | 296.7% | 848.9% | +755pp |
| DCO | Ducommun | 5.3% | 37.5x | 44.2% | 179.2% | 147.0% | +53pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Aerospace & Defense is LMT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 25.1% | 30.2% | 102.9% | MATX 155% · KEX 103% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 6.3% | 55.5% | 95.0% | ALSN 255% · WAB 204% · CAT 192% |
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -21.3% | 79.9% | 94.8% | FIX 895% · STRL 799% · AGX 526% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 54 | -12.6% | 55.7% | 49.5% | ATI 849% · FTAI 756% · HWM 509% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.6% | 30.7% | 33.8% | DXPE 276% · AIT 184% · URI 177% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.3% | 46.1% | 29.7% | CRS 797% · MLI 298% · SYM 249% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 34.9% | 53.7% | 27.8% | CSX 54% · UNP 40% · NSC 28% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 14.8% | 36.8% | 21.3% | CXW 195% · OPLN 143% · CTAS 115% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | MOD 714% · GFF 345% · TT 126% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 4.8% | XPO 269% · R 250% · ARCB 25% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 14.8% | -1.6% | -1.3% | CSW 103% · CSL 72% · DD 65% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 20.8% | 22.5% | -2.6% | PBI 158% · TILE 140% · HNI 40% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -14.2% | 56.2% | -12.1% | POWL 1360% · VRT 543% · BE 424% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.8% | 5.0% | -12.7% | EXLS 59% · BR 22% · G -12% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -15.5% | -22.6% | HURN 227% · FCN 36% · BAH 14% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 7.2% | -7.4% | -27.4% | BLBD 171% · DE 99% · TTC 15% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -51.2% | 10.7% | -28.0% | BCO 65% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -31.2% | 25.5% | -28.1% | GEO 163% · CLH 162% · RSG 100% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.6% | 64.1% | -34.8% | LTM 3100% · UAL 110% · DAL 100% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -28.8% | -7.3% | -39.1% | FDX 80% · EXPD 60% · CHRW 54% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 19.2% | -6.0% | -42.4% | ADP 50% · FA 22% · PAYX 13% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -14.1% | 42.9% | -57.4% | UBER 46% · CAR -57% · LYFT -67% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -49.1% | -62.8% | -86.2% | JOBY -47% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 308.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 114.7 |
| Rev LTM | 67,818 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,242 |
| FCF LTM | 4,804 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,504 |
| CFO LTM | 6,286 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,853 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 114.7 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.3 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 20.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeronautics | 30,638 | 28,995 | 27,777 | 27,236 | 26,967 |
| Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) | 19,683 | 19,584 | 18,364 | 18,078 | 18,684 |
| Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) | 15,318 | 13,486 | 11,941 | 11,944 | 12,311 |
| Space | 13,357 | 12,871 | 12,963 | 11,913 | 12,174 |
| Intersegment sales | -3,948 | -3,893 | -3,474 | -3,187 | -3,092 |
| Total | 75,048 | 71,043 | 67,571 | 65,984 | 67,044 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeronautics | 2,086 | 2,523 | 2,825 | 2,867 | 2,800 |
| Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) | 1,989 | 413 | 1,541 | 1,637 | 1,650 |
| Financial Accounting Standards (FAS) / Cost accounting standards (CAS) pension operating adjustment | 1,518 | 1,624 | 1,660 | 1,709 | 1,960 |
| Space | 1,345 | 1,226 | 1,158 | 1,057 | 1,184 |
| Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) | 1,323 | 1,921 | 1,865 | 1,906 | 2,030 |
| Impairment and other charges | -66 | -87 | -92 | -100 | |
| Other, net | -210 | -360 | -203 | -480 | -180 |
| Intangible asset amortization expense | -254 | -247 | -247 | -248 | -285 |
| Severance and other charges | -36 | ||||
| Total | 7,731 | 7,013 | 8,507 | 8,348 | 9,123 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) | 16,576 | 17,025 | 17,521 | 17,988 | 17,664 |
| Aeronautics | 14,673 | 13,223 | 13,167 | 12,055 | 10,756 |
| Corporate assets | 14,532 | 12,029 | 9,505 | 10,698 | 11,011 |
| Space | 7,755 | 7,388 | 6,560 | 6,351 | 6,199 |
| Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) | 6,304 | 5,952 | 5,703 | 5,788 | 5,243 |
| Total | 59,840 | 55,617 | 52,456 | 52,880 | 50,873 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $576.16 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 132.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/03/1977 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $547.96 | $564.21 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.7% | 31.0% |
| Downside Capture | -77.77 | -16.83 |
| Upside Capture | -70.10 | 12.90 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -29.3% | -6.1% |
LMT Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.08 | -0.64 | -0.38 | -0.34 | -0.09 | 0.09 |
| Up Beta | 2.26 | 0.34 | 0.43 | 0.05 | -0.17 | 0.28 |
| Down Beta | -1.87 | -2.46 | -1.83 | -0.71 | -0.24 | -0.01 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 25% | 5% | -1% | 12% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 24 | 35 | 63 | 125 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -261% | -89% | -58% | -88% | -29% | -19% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 29 | 63 | 126 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 22.0% | 31.0% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.4% | 17.8% | 0.24 | 27.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | -2.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | -3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | 10.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | -8.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 14.7% | 24.2% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.8% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 14.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 1.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 11.6% | 24.5% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 52.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 18.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 7.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2026 | 7.0% | 14.2% | |
| 7/23/2026 | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.1% |
| 4/23/2026 | -4.6% | -8.2% | -5.9% |
| 1/29/2026 | 4.2% | 0.9% | 10.2% |
| 10/21/2025 | -3.2% | -3.8% | -6.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -10.8% | -8.5% | -4.2% |
| 4/22/2025 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -9.2% | -9.6% | -12.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -5.5% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.8% | -12.1% | -13.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2026 | 7.0% | 14.2% | |
| 7/23/2026 | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.1% |
| 4/23/2026 | -4.6% | -8.2% | -5.9% |
| 1/29/2026 | 4.2% | 0.9% | 10.2% |
| 10/21/2025 | -3.2% | -3.8% | -6.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -10.8% | -8.5% | -4.2% |
| 4/22/2025 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -9.2% | -9.6% | -12.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | -6.1% | -9.7% | -13.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | 5.6% | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | -0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 1/23/2024 | -4.2% | -6.7% | -6.8% |
| 10/17/2023 | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| 7/18/2023 | -3.0% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
| 4/18/2023 | 2.4% | -1.8% | -8.6% |
| 1/24/2023 | 1.8% | 4.4% | 8.7% |
| 10/18/2022 | 8.7% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| 6/27/2022 | 0.3% | -1.0% | -4.9% |
| 4/19/2022 | -1.6% | -5.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/25/2022 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 10/26/2021 | -11.8% | -12.1% | -8.3% |
| 7/26/2021 | -3.3% | -2.4% | -6.2% |
| 4/20/2021 | -1.1% | -5.0% | -1.2% |
| 1/26/2021 | -3.7% | -5.7% | 0.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -5.5% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.8% | -12.1% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/18/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/07/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/23/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Business segment operating profit | Reported | 8.57 Bil | 8.62 Bil | 8.68 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 8.60 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total FAS/CAS pension adjustment | Reported | 1.36 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Cash from operations | Reported | 10.00 Bil | 10.10 Bil | 10.20 Bil | 8.6% | Raised | Guidance: 9.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Consolidated operating profit (GAAP) | Reported | 9.52 Bil | 9.57 Bil | 9.62 Bil | ||||
| 2026 FAS/CAS operating adjustment | Reported | 1.69 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Intangible asset amortization expense | Reported | -200.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Other, net | Reported | -540.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 FAS pension expense | Reported | -370.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 CAS pension cost | Reported | 1.74 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 FAS pension service cost | Reported | -50.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Non-service FAS pension expense | Reported | -320.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Sales | Reported | 80.00 Bil | 81.00 Bil | 82.00 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 80.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | Reported | 30.35 | 30.55 | 30.75 | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 30.3 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 2.10 Bil | 2.20 Bil | 2.30 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 7.80 Bil | 7.90 Bil | 8.00 Bil | 11.3% | Raised | Guidance: 7.10 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Business segment operating profit | Reported | 8.50 Bil | 8.60 Bil | 8.70 Bil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 8.55 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Cash from operations | Reported | 9.20 Bil | 9.30 Bil | 9.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Sales | Reported | 79.75 Bil | 80.75 Bil | 81.75 Bil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 78.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | Reported | 29.95 | 30.3 | 30.65 | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 29.8 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.20 Bil | 2.40 Bil | -17.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 7.00 Bil | 7.10 Bil | 7.20 Bil | 6.8% | Raised | Guidance: 6.65 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Profit Growth | Reported | 25.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Business segment operating profit | Reported | 8.43 Bil | 8.55 Bil | 8.68 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.55 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Cash from operations | Reported | 9.15 Bil | 9.30 Bil | 9.45 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Sales | Reported | 77.50 Bil | 78.75 Bil | 80.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 78.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | Reported | 29.35 | 29.8 | 30.25 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 29.8 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 2.50 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 2.80 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 6.50 Bil | 6.65 Bil | 6.80 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.65 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Business segment operating profit | Reported | 8.43 Bil | 8.55 Bil | 8.68 Bil | 27.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.70 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Segment operating profit growth | Reported | 25.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Cash from operations | Reported | 9.15 Bil | 9.30 Bil | 9.45 Bil | 9.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Sales | Reported | 77.50 Bil | 78.75 Bil | 80.00 Bil | 5.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 74.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | Reported | 29.35 | 29.8 | 30.25 | 33.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 22.25 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 2.50 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 2.80 Bil | 39.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 6.50 Bil | 6.65 Bil | 6.80 Bil | 0.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.60 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St, John Frank A | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 0.00 | 3,899 | Form | ||
| 2 | Donovan, John | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 0.00 | 3,378 | Form | |||
| 3 | Lightfoot, Robert M JR | President Space | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 600.12 | 196 | 117,623 | 1,209,150 | Form |
| 4 | Lightfoot, Robert M JR | President Space | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 0.00 | 2,410 | Form | ||
| 5 | Cahill, Timothy S | Pres. Missiles & Fire Control | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 0.00 | 4,620 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St, John Frank A | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 0.00 | 3,899 | Form | ||
| 2 | Donovan, John | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 0.00 | 3,378 | Form | |||
| 3 | Lightfoot, Robert M JR | President Space | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 600.12 | 196 | 117,623 | 1,209,150 | Form |
| 4 | Lightfoot, Robert M JR | President Space | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 0.00 | 2,410 | Form | ||
| 5 | Cahill, Timothy S | Pres. Missiles & Fire Control | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 0.00 | 4,620 | Form | ||
| 6 | Ulmer, Gregory M | President Aeronautics | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 0.00 | 2,840 | Form | ||
| 7 | Hill, Stephanie C | Pres. Rotary & Mission Systems | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 2.76 | 2,410 | 6,660 | 25,791 | Form |
| 8 | St, John Frank A | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 491.04 | 7,792 | 3,826,166 | 256 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spectrum Financial Alliance Ltd LLC | $63.1 Mil | 12.1% | 32 | ADD +5.4% | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $39.4 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $19.5 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunriver Management LLC | $21.9 Mil | 3.7% | 18 | TRIM -72.0% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $98.5 Mil | 3.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $8.0 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $16.7 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 2.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 39 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $39.3 Mil | 1.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $689.6 Mil | 0.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $23.6 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $39.3 Mil | 1.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $23.6 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $16.7 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $8.0 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 2.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Spectrum Financial Alliance Ltd LLC | $63.1 Mil | 12.1% | 32 | ADD +5.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A. | $9.7 Mil | 3.1% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hi-Line Capital Management, LLC | $6.8 Mil | 2.3% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sunriver Management LLC | $21.9 Mil | 3.7% | 18 | TRIM -72.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 39 | TRIM -28.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $689.6 Mil | 0.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $98.5 Mil | 3.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Spectrum Financial Alliance Ltd LLC | $63.1 Mil | 12.1% | 32 | ADD +5.4% | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $39.4 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $39.3 Mil | 1.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $23.6 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Sunriver Management LLC | $21.9 Mil | 3.7% | 18 | TRIM -72.0% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $19.5 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $16.7 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 39 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $8.0 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 2.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
LMT Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, anchored by a record $292 billion backlog that provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility. New long-term contracts for key munitions and F-35 programs are de-risking future growth. The primary watch-item remains execution, specifically avoiding the material program losses that have occurred historically on complex, fixed-price development work.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Project-Based / Backlog-DrivenBacklog Conversion Rate + Value of New Contract Awards Mix shift towards high-volume, high-margin munitions production and successful execution on fixed-price contracts.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a successful transition, driven by new long-term, inflation-protected contracts for core franchises.
Mechanism:
Ramping production on mature systems like PAC-3 and F-35, secured by 7-to-10 year agreements, provides unprecedented revenue visibility and a clear path to convert backlog into accelerating sales and cash flow.
Supporting Evidence:
- Record backlog of $292 billion provides multi-year revenue visibility.
- Third quarter book-to-bill ratio was 4x, indicating extremely strong demand.
- Full-year 2026 sales guidance was raised to a range of $80 billion to $82 billion.
- The company is investing over $8 billion through 2030 to expand production capacity.
- New multi-year agreements for PAC-3 and THAAD secure long-term production volumes.
PRIMARY RISK
A history of material charges on complex programs, including a $950 million loss in 2025 and adjustments on four separate programs in 2026, suggests risk of future write-downs that could erode profitability.
Mechanism:
A new material charge on a major program would confirm that cost control issues are systemic.
Supporting Evidence:
- Recorded a $950 million loss on a classified Aeronautics program in 2025.
- Recorded a $1.4 billion loss on a classified MFC program in 2024.
- In the first nine months of 2026, recorded profit adjustments on four programs.
- A shareholder lawsuit alleges misstatements related to certain classified programs.
- Costs on the F-35 Lot 20 contract began exceeding funding in Q3 2026.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Backlog | A record $292 billion as of the third quarter of 2026. - Accelerating | The dramatic increase is driven by the successful conversion of geopolitical demand into landmark, long-duration contracts. A key contributor was the seven-year multi-year award for PAC-3 interceptors, valued at up to $58.6 billion, which provides unprecedented revenue visibility. |
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | 4.0x for the third quarter of 2026. - Accelerating | The exceptionally high book-to-bill ratio reflects the booking of massive, front-loaded multi-year awards, particularly for munitions. This is not a typical quarterly run-rate but a signal of a step-change in future contracted revenue. |
| F-35 Aircraft Deliveries (Cumulative) | 1,387 (As of September 27, 2026) | Tracks the operational progress of the company's largest single program, indicating production cadence and the expansion of the global fleet that requires long-term sustainment revenue. |
Core Investment Debate
Contract Visibility vs. Execution Risk
BULL VIEW
The unprecedented $292 billion backlog, secured by multi-year production contracts on mature platforms, fundamentally de-risks the business and ensures a long cycle of predictable growth.
CORE TENSION
Can the margin benefit from scaling mature programs like PAC-3 offset the risk of new losses on complex development contracts, a risk highlighted by a $950M charge in 2025?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market strongly rewarded the backlog growth and management raised its full-year 2026 guidance for sales, profit, and free cash flow.
BEAR VIEW
The company's history of material losses on complex programs will continue, and these write-downs will offset the margin benefits from the production ramp, proving it cannot execute profitably at scale.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/25/2027 | Peer-Driven Expectation Risk Watch: Peer results and commentary on budgets and supply chain, followed by LMT's guidance relative to expectations. |
1/26/2027 | Peer General Dynamics Earnings Watch: Peer General Dynamics (GD) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/27/2027 | F-35 Lot Funding Gap Watch: An announcement of a definitized contract or additional funding for F-35 Lots 20 and higher. |
1/27/2027 | New Program Execution Charges Watch: Disclosure of 'unfavorable profit adjustments' or 'reach-forward losses' in the Q4 earnings report. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-22 | Q3 Earnings Beat, Guidance Raised Details: Q3 sales increased 11% to $20.7 billion, backlog hit a new record of $292.0 billion including a multi-year PAC-3 award, and the 2026 financial outlook was updated higher. | +9.6% $551.51 -> $604.18 |
2026-10-14 | Advanced Manufacturing Expansion Announced Details: The company announced plans to expand advanced manufacturing capacity, including a partnership with Hadrian to accelerate production of critical munitions. | +5.7% $504.02 -> $532.64 |
2026-09-30 | Counter-Drone Tech Investment Details: Lockheed Martin led a $50 million Series B financing round for Fortem Technologies, a company specializing in airspace security and counter-drone solutions. | -1.3% $512.21 -> $505.50 |
2026-09-21 | PrSM Increment 2 Contract Secured Details: The U.S. Army awarded a contract worth up to $1.2 billion to produce Increment 2 of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) after a second successful maritime test. | -2.1% $533.38 -> $522.34 |
2026-07-23 | Q2 Earnings Show Acceleration Details: Q2 results showed an 11% sales increase to $20.1 billion, a record backlog of $230 billion, and a guidance raise. Free cash flow recovered to $2.9 billion. | +13.3% $511.20 -> $579.02 |
2026-06-24 | THAAD Multiyear Contract Awarded Details: The U.S. government awarded a seven-year undefinitized contract action for up to $35 billion to quadruple production of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. | +0.3% $500.57 -> $501.92 |
2026-04-23 | Q1 Earnings Disappoint Details: | -7.6% $548.43 -> $506.97 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: LMT trades at roughly 28% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (2.5x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
RTX - RTX
Scale and Margin LeaderRTX has a larger backlog at $340 billion and operates with significantly higher gross margins. This may offer a more profitable exposure to the same defense upcycle.
Core Thesis: Benefit from the defense spending cycle with a company demonstrating superior profitability and the industry's largest contracted backlog.
NOC - Northrop Grumman
High-Margin SpecialistNorthrop Grumman reported a strong gross margin of 20% and a record backlog of $110 billion. It provides exposure to strategic deterrence and space programs.
Core Thesis: Invest in a high-margin defense prime with a strong position in strategic national security programs and a growing backlog.
How Is The Market Pricing LMT?
A prime defense contractor transforming into a high-volume, commercially-minded manufacturer of critical systems, capitalizing on a period of sustained global demand with unprecedented long-term, inflation-protected contracts.
Lockheed Martin is leveraging a geopolitical environment of "permanent" demand to secure multi-year framework agreements for its key munitions (PAC-3, THAAD) and F-35 programs. This provides exceptional revenue visibility and enables commercial-style investment in scaling production to "wartime speed and scale." The company is also investing its own capital in next-generation technologies like autonomous aircraft (Vectis) and hypersonics ahead of formal customer requirements, positioning itself to capture future franchise programs.
What will confirm the thesis
Successful conversion of more framework agreements into definitive contracts; meeting or exceeding production ramp targets for munitions; securing new multi-year agreements for other platforms.
What will damage the thesis
Significant delays or cancellations of the new multi-year agreements; failure to resolve supply chain bottlenecks, preventing production ramps; another material loss on a large, fixed-price development program.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term U.S. budget debates or continuing resolutions, which management stated in an October 2026 earnings call "do not change the direction of demand."
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of the de-risking and long-term visibility provided by the new multi-year, cash-neutral, inflation-protected framework agreements for the company's core growth franchises.
What LMT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Aeronautics
$31.2B TTM (41% of Total) · 9% MarginWhat It Is
Researches, designs, develops, manufactures, and supports advanced military aircraft, including combat and air mobility aircraft like the F-35 Lightning II, C-130 Hercules, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F-22 Raptor. Sells primarily to the U.S. Government and allied nations.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Government and allied nations pay for dominant air power capabilities. The F-35 program, the segment's largest, is critical as it is the only in-production fifth-generation fighter in the free world, and its combat performance has solidified demand, per a Q1 2026 earnings call.
Contracts are a mix of fixed-price and cost-reimbursable structures.
Competition
Incumbency on cornerstone programs like the F-35, which constitutes 67% of segment sales, and advanced design capabilities within its Skunk Works division.
Missiles and Fire Control (MFC)
$16.4B TTM (21% of Total) · 13% MarginWhat It Is
Provides air and missile defense systems (Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3), THAAD), tactical missiles and precision strike weapons (JASSM, PrSM, Hellfire), and fire control systems. Sells to the U.S. Government and international customers.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Government and allied nations pay for critical missile defense and precision strike capabilities to counter evolving threats. An October 2026 earnings call highlighted that the business is transforming to deliver munitions at "wartime speed and scale" to meet urgent demand.
Contracts are a mix of fixed-price and cost-reimbursable structures.
Competition
Holds franchise positions on combat-proven, high-demand interceptors like PAC-3 and THAAD, with a deep-rooted supply chain and production expertise that is now being scaled aggressively.
Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS)
$19.8B TTM (26% of Total) · 9% MarginWhat It Is
Designs and manufactures military and commercial helicopters (Black Hawk, Seahawk), surface ships, sea and land-based missile defense systems (Aegis Combat System), radar systems, and cyber solutions. Sells to the U.S. Government and international customers.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Government and allied nations pay for integrated naval combat systems, helicopters for various missions, and advanced sensor capabilities. There is continued international interest in the Aegis system for ship-based missile defense and in the Black Hawk helicopter family.
Contracts are a mix of fixed-price and cost-reimbursable structures.
Competition
Incumbency of the Aegis Combat System, the primary naval integrated warfare system, and the widely deployed Black Hawk helicopter franchise.
Space
$13.8B TTM (18% of Total) · 9% MarginWhat It Is
Engaged in the research, design, and production of satellites, space transportation systems (Orion), and strategic, advanced strike, and defensive systems (Trident II D5 Fleet Ballistic Missile, Next Generation Interceptor, hypersonics). Sells primarily to U.S. Government agencies like the Department of Defense and NASA.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Government pays for capabilities essential to strategic deterrence (Trident FBM), homeland missile defense (NGI), and deep space exploration (Orion). These are long-term, cornerstone programs for national security and scientific advancement.
Contracts are a mix of fixed-price and cost-reimbursable structures.
Competition
Decades-long prime contractor incumbency on critical, high-barrier-to-entry national security programs like the Trident II D5 Fleet Ballistic Missile.
LMT Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2023 · Platform-Centric Growth
+43%
Revenue growth was steady, primarily driven by the large Aeronautics segment and its F-35 program.
2024-Present · Munitions-Led Acceleration
+40%
Amid a shifting geopolitical landscape, growth began to accelerate, led by the Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment. MFC revenue grew significantly from 2023 to 2025, and the company secured landmark multi-year agreements to triple or quadruple production of key interceptors, shifting the company's growth narrative towards high-volume manufacturing.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is damaged. The price has broken key levels and the trend is no longer supportive. Relative to SPY: Mildly outperforming the market and improving; positive 'relative strength' trend building. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
-2
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Potential Bottoming · Death Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Mixed
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Neutral / Mixed
▾
5
Volatility
Expanded
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Flat
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Reward
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Lockheed Martin — Investor Video Playlist
Products & Services
Building a Stronger Future: The F-35 Multiyear Framework Agreement
Investor / Analyst
Lockheed Stock SOARS 7%: Record $292B Backlog on Q3 Earnings Beat | Stock Market Today
Investor / Analyst
Lockheed Martin's The Quarterly - Q3 2026
Products & Services
How Our NetSense™ Solution Enhances Security for Critical Infrastructure, Events
Products & Services
Lockheed Martin Vectis™ by Skunk Works®
Products & Services
How Our Space Capabilities Enable the Long Range Kill Chain
Products & Services
Lockheed Martin Awarded Seven-Year Deal to Triple PAC-3® MSE Production
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/5/2026