Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Market Price (9/11/2026): $6.99 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Household Appliances
Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Market Price (9/11/2026): $6.99Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Household Appliances
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% Key risksHLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Key risksHLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed fiscal Q2 2026 financial results led to an initial surge followed by stabilization. Hillman Solutions reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (period ended June 27, 2026) on August 3, 2026, with net sales increasing 9.8% year-over-year to $442.3 million, surpassing consensus estimates of $433.67 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.11 from $0.08 in the prior year, while adjusted diluted EPS remained flat at $0.17, matching analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $77.1 million from $75.2 million, and the company raised its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to $1.670–$1.720 billion. The stock experienced an immediate positive reaction, gaining 14.44% on August 4, 2026, but this initial surge settled, contributing to the stock's largely stable performance over the broader period.
2. Strategic acquisition plans, while offering growth potential, were tempered by associated execution and leverage risks. On August 3, 2026, Hillman Solutions announced its agreement to acquire Kanebridge for $315 million, expected to close in early fiscal Q4 2026, aiming to establish an industrial master distribution presence in the U.S.. This move reinforces the company's acquisitive growth strategy. However, analysts noted that such deal-making introduces balance sheet and integration risks, with the net debt to trailing 12-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio expected to increase by approximately one full turn following the Kanebridge closing. These perceived risks likely offset some of the positive sentiment from the growth prospects, contributing to the stock's horizontal movement.
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed fiscal Q2 2026 financial results led to an initial surge followed by stabilization. Hillman Solutions reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (period ended June 27, 2026) on August 3, 2026, with net sales increasing 9.8% year-over-year to $442.3 million, surpassing consensus estimates of $433.67 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.11 from $0.08 in the prior year, while adjusted diluted EPS remained flat at $0.17, matching analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $77.1 million from $75.2 million, and the company raised its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to $1.670–$1.720 billion. The stock experienced an immediate positive reaction, gaining 14.44% on August 4, 2026, but this initial surge settled, contributing to the stock's largely stable performance over the broader period.
2. Strategic acquisition plans, while offering growth potential, were tempered by associated execution and leverage risks. On August 3, 2026, Hillman Solutions announced its agreement to acquire Kanebridge for $315 million, expected to close in early fiscal Q4 2026, aiming to establish an industrial master distribution presence in the U.S.. This move reinforces the company's acquisitive growth strategy. However, analysts noted that such deal-making introduces balance sheet and integration risks, with the net debt to trailing 12-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio expected to increase by approximately one full turn following the Kanebridge closing. These perceived risks likely offset some of the positive sentiment from the growth prospects, contributing to the stock's horizontal movement.
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed fiscal Q2 2026 financial results led to an initial surge followed by stabilization. Hillman Solutions reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (period ended June 27, 2026) on August 3, 2026, with net sales increasing 9.8% year-over-year to $442.3 million, surpassing consensus estimates of $433.67 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.11 from $0.08 in the prior year, while adjusted diluted EPS remained flat at $0.17, matching analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $77.1 million from $75.2 million, and the company raised its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to $1.670–$1.720 billion. The stock experienced an immediate positive reaction, gaining 14.44% on August 4, 2026, but this initial surge settled, contributing to the stock's largely stable performance over the broader period.
2. Strategic acquisition plans, while offering growth potential, were tempered by associated execution and leverage risks. On August 3, 2026, Hillman Solutions announced its agreement to acquire Kanebridge for $315 million, expected to close in early fiscal Q4 2026, aiming to establish an industrial master distribution presence in the U.S.. This move reinforces the company's acquisitive growth strategy. However, analysts noted that such deal-making introduces balance sheet and integration risks, with the net debt to trailing 12-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio expected to increase by approximately one full turn following the Kanebridge closing. These perceived risks likely offset some of the positive sentiment from the growth prospects, contributing to the stock's horizontal movement.
3. Debt refinancing provided financial stability but lacked a strong catalyst for sustained upward momentum. Hillman Solutions completed a significant debt refinancing between July 13, 2026, and July 22, 2026, closing a new $735 million Term Loan B due July 2033 and a $375 million ABL revolving credit facility due July 2031. This refinancing improved the company's financial flexibility by extending maturities. While a positive step for capital structure management, this type of financial engineering typically fosters stability rather than acting as a major catalyst for substantial stock appreciation, particularly given that the net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio remained at 2.4x at the end of fiscal Q2 2026.
4. Analyst sentiment maintained a "Hold" consensus, providing a neutral outlook despite significant implied upside. As of late August 2026, the consensus analyst rating for Hillman Solutions was "Hold," based on four analysts with one "Sell," one "Hold," and two "Buy" ratings. The average price target of $12.67 suggested a substantial potential upside of 63.02% from the August 28, 2026, price of $7.77. Despite the optimistic price targets from some analysts, the overall cautious "Hold" recommendation from the analyst community likely kept investor enthusiasm in check, leading to the stock trading largely at the same level as investors weighed both potential upside and existing concerns.
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed fiscal Q2 2026 financial results led to an initial surge followed by stabilization. Hillman Solutions reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (period ended June 27, 2026) on August 3, 2026, with net sales increasing 9.8% year-over-year to $442.3 million, surpassing consensus estimates of $433.67 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.11 from $0.08 in the prior year, while adjusted diluted EPS remained flat at $0.17, matching analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $77.1 million from $75.2 million, and the company raised its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to $1.670–$1.720 billion. The stock experienced an immediate positive reaction, gaining 14.44% on August 4, 2026, but this initial surge settled, contributing to the stock's largely stable performance over the broader period.
2. Strategic acquisition plans, while offering growth potential, were tempered by associated execution and leverage risks. On August 3, 2026, Hillman Solutions announced its agreement to acquire Kanebridge for $315 million, expected to close in early fiscal Q4 2026, aiming to establish an industrial master distribution presence in the U.S.. This move reinforces the company's acquisitive growth strategy. However, analysts noted that such deal-making introduces balance sheet and integration risks, with the net debt to trailing 12-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio expected to increase by approximately one full turn following the Kanebridge closing. These perceived risks likely offset some of the positive sentiment from the growth prospects, contributing to the stock's horizontal movement.
3. Debt refinancing provided financial stability but lacked a strong catalyst for sustained upward momentum. Hillman Solutions completed a significant debt refinancing between July 13, 2026, and July 22, 2026, closing a new $735 million Term Loan B due July 2033 and a $375 million ABL revolving credit facility due July 2031. This refinancing improved the company's financial flexibility by extending maturities. While a positive step for capital structure management, this type of financial engineering typically fosters stability rather than acting as a major catalyst for substantial stock appreciation, particularly given that the net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio remained at 2.4x at the end of fiscal Q2 2026.
4. Analyst sentiment maintained a "Hold" consensus, providing a neutral outlook despite significant implied upside. As of late August 2026, the consensus analyst rating for Hillman Solutions was "Hold," based on four analysts with one "Sell," one "Hold," and two "Buy" ratings. The average price target of $12.67 suggested a substantial potential upside of 63.02% from the August 28, 2026, price of $7.77. Despite the optimistic price targets from some analysts, the overall cautious "Hold" recommendation from the analyst community likely kept investor enthusiasm in check, leading to the stock trading largely at the same level as investors weighed both potential upside and existing concerns.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.4% change in HLMN stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.46 | 6.98 | -6.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,563 | 1,602 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.3% | 2.6% | 11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.9 | 33.2 | -18.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 197 | 196 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -6.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.2% | 44.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -7.4% | 36.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.9% change in HLMN stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.20 | 6.98 | -14.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,552 | 1,602 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.1 | 33.2 | -17.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 197 | 196 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -14.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.8% | 49.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.0% | 48.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.4% change in HLMN stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.88 | 6.98 | -29.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,505 | 1,602 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 2.6% | 78.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 89.9 | 33.2 | -63.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 198 | 196 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -29.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.5% | 40.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.8% | 44.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.9% change in HLMN stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.05 | 6.98 | -22.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,459 | 1,602 | 9.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.9 | -29.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 195 | 196 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -22.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.2% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 34.2% | 51.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLMN Return | 3% | -33% | 28% | 6% | -11% | -16% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -33% | 52% | -5% | -3% | 10% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLMN Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 32% | 60% | 43% | 53% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLMN Max Drawdown | -27% | -46% | -35% | -20% | -37% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -43% | -20% | -22% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FBIN, SWK, ITW, FAST, SSD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 520 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Hillman Solutions's stock fell -33.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | HLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 520 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Hillman Solutions's stock fell -33.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is a North American provider of a wide array of hardware-related products and accompanying merchandising services. The company essentially supplies fundamental building blocks and finishing touches for homes and various projects, ranging from general hardware components to an extensive selection of fasteners and other specialized items.
Its comprehensive product portfolio includes essential hardware like anchor shackles, door hinges, garage door components, and various hooks and storage solutions. Hillman is also a significant supplier of fasteners, offering everything from anchors, bolts, and nuts to screws, washers, and specialized kits. Beyond these, the company provides a diverse range of items such as driveway markers, numbers, letters, signs, wall hangings, and personal protective equipment like face masks. It also offers key duplication and engraving services, alongside electrical, plumbing, and automotive accessories, all sold under a portfolio of recognized brands including DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, and minute key.
Hillman Solutions serves a broad customer base primarily through various retail channels, including independent hardware stores, major home centers, mass merchants, and even pet supply stores. Additionally, the company supplies its products to industrial original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), positioning itself as a key behind-the-scenes supplier for both consumer and industrial markets.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Hillman Solutions:
- The Fastenal of the retail hardware world: Like Fastenal provides essential fasteners and industrial supplies directly to businesses, Hillman Solutions supplies a vast array of hardware, fasteners, and related products primarily to retail stores like Home Depot and Lowe's.
- Like Sysco, but for hardware stores and home centers: Similar to how Sysco is the unseen supplier providing restaurants with everything from food to kitchen essentials, Hillman Solutions is a major supplier that stocks the shelves of hardware stores and home centers with a huge variety of small, everyday hardware and home improvement items.
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- Hardware Components: Provides a wide array of functional hardware items such as hinges, hooks, garage door parts, and springs.
- Fasteners: Offers a comprehensive range of connecting elements including anchors, bolts, nails, screws, nuts, and washers.
- Identification & Safety Products: Supplies items like driveway markers, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, and safety tapes.
- Structural Materials: Distributes threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and various slotted and aluminum angles.
- Wall Hanging Solutions: Features products for mounting and decorating walls, including picture hanging hardware, hooks, adhesives, and mirrors.
- Personal Protective Equipment (PPE): Sells essential safety gear such as face masks, gloves, and glasses.
- Keys & Engraving: Provides services and products related to keys and engraving.
- Specialty Product Categories: Offers a selection of electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories.
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Jon Michael Adinolfi, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jon Michael Adinolfi assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Hillman Solutions on January 1, 2025, after serving as Chief Operating Officer since June 2023. Prior to becoming COO, he was Divisional President, Hillman U.S., a position he held since joining the company in 2019. Before his tenure at Hillman, Mr. Adinolfi held several leadership roles at Stanley Black & Decker, including President of U.S. Retail from November 2016 to July 2019, President of Hand Tools from October 2013 to December 2016, and CFO - North America, CDIY from June 2011 to September 2013. He also served as President of Crown Bolt from 2008 to 2011, a company that was a fastener supplier for Home Depot.
Robert Kraft, Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerRobert Kraft joined Hillman as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer in November 2017. Before his role at Hillman, Mr. Kraft served as the President of the Omnicare (Long Term Care) division and an Executive Vice President of CVS Health Corporation from August 2015 to September 2017. He was previously Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Omnicare, Inc. from November 2010 to August 2015, and managed the sale of Omnicare to CVS Health for $13 billion. Mr. Kraft began his career in 1992 with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, where he was admitted as a Partner in 2004, gaining significant experience with both publicly held and private equity-backed organizations. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Douglas J. Cahill, Executive ChairmanDouglas J. Cahill transitioned to the role of Executive Chairman on January 1, 2025, having previously served as Chairman since 2014 and President and Chief Executive Officer of Hillman since 2019. Prior to joining Hillman, Mr. Cahill was a Managing Director of CCMP Capital Advisors from July 2014 to July 2019 and a member of their Investment Committee, following an earlier role as an Executive Adviser of CCMP from March 2013. He held the position of President & CEO of Oreck from May 2010 until December 2012. Before Oreck, Mr. Cahill served for eight years as President & CEO of Doane Pet Care Company, a private label pet food manufacturer and a former CCMP portfolio company, which was subsequently sold to Mars, Inc. in 2006. From 2006 to 2009, he was President of Mars Petcare U.S. Mr. Cahill's background includes 13 years at Olin Corporation in various managerial and executive roles and a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Amanda Kitzberger, Chief Legal OfficerAmanda Kitzberger serves as Hillman Solutions' Chief Legal Officer.
Scott Moore, Divisional President, Robotics and Digital SolutionsScott Moore has served as Hillman's Divisional President, Robotics and Digital Solutions since June 2024. Before this, he was Hillman's Chief Technology Officer from August 2022 to May 2024. His prior experience includes serving as Senior Vice President of IT for MinuteKEY from March 2011 to August 2022 and as CIO for AP-Networks from April 2006 to February 2011.
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The key risks to Hillman Solutions' business include:
- Customer Concentration: Hillman Solutions is highly dependent on a few large customers, with Lowe's Companies accounting for 19% of its overall revenue and both Lowe's and Home Depot together representing a significant portion of its total revenues. Any adverse changes in these relationships, such as shifts in purchasing policies or a decline in their business, could materially impact Hillman's financial performance.
- Economic Dependence and Market Conditions: The company's sales are strongly influenced by the broader economic climate and the health of the home improvement industry. Factors such as unfavorable economic conditions, including inflation, recessions, high interest rates affecting the housing and repair/remodel markets, and changes in consumer spending, can negatively affect sales and overall financial health.
- Supply Chain Costs and Tariffs: Hillman Solutions relies on foreign suppliers, predominantly in China and Taiwan, for a majority of its products. This exposes the company to risks associated with increased supply chain costs, including those related to raw materials, sourcing, transportation, energy, and significant tariff-related expenses.
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Hillman Solutions (symbol: HLMN) operates in several addressable markets within North America, primarily related to hardware, fasteners, home improvement, safety products, and key duplication services. The estimated sizes for these markets in North America are as follows:
- Home Improvement Market (North America): This broad market, which includes many of Hillman's hardware-related products and services, was valued at approximately USD 308.00 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 385.19 billion by 2034. Another estimate placed the North America home improvement market size at over USD 415 billion in 2020. Separately, the North America DIY (Do-It-Yourself) home improvement retailing market generated an estimated USD 467.4 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach up to USD 688.8 billion by 2030. North America accounts for approximately 44% to 48.7% of the global DIY home improvement market.
- Industrial Fasteners Market (North America): The market for industrial fasteners in North America was valued at USD 27.78 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 41.81 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the North American Industrial Fasteners market size was valued at USD 16.31 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 24.97 billion by 2030. North America is also the largest market for construction fasteners, holding approximately 40% of the global market share.
- Workplace Safety Products Market (North America): For products such as face masks, gloves, and glasses, the North America workplace safety market generated a revenue of approximately USD 6.52 billion in 2024, with personal protective equipment (PPE) being the largest product type.
- Key Duplicating Machine Market (North America): North America holds approximately 30% of the global key duplicating machine market. The global market is projected to reach USD 2.3 billion by 2033, suggesting an addressable market of approximately USD 0.69 billion for key duplicating machines in North America by that year.
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These drivers are primarily centered around strategic market expansion, product innovation, and M&A activities.
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Hillman Solutions:
* **New Business Wins:** Hillman Solutions expects growth from securing new business opportunities. This was a significant factor in 2025's strong performance, with specific mentions of new wins in PowerPro screws, rope, and chain contributing to the top line. The company's 2026 guidance also forecasts growth driven by new business wins.
* **Multi-channel Expansion and Growth in the Pro-Channel:** A key strategic focus for Hillman is its multi-channel expansion, particularly capturing growth in the professional (pro) channel. This strategy is a prominent topic for the company's upcoming Investor Day in March 2026, indicating its importance for future revenue generation.
* **Strategic Acquisitions:** Hillman has demonstrated a strategy of expanding its product portfolio through targeted acquisitions. In 2024, the company acquired Koch Industries and Intex DIY, which are expected to strengthen its position in key product categories. Management views mergers and acquisitions as incremental to their long-term growth targets and has indicated a promising M&A pipeline with potential deals on the horizon.
* **Price Increases:** The company has successfully implemented price increases that have contributed to revenue growth. Price increases added 5.5 percentage points to revenue in 2025, and a mid-single-digit contribution from price is expected to drive further increases in 2026.
* **Growth in Robotics and Digital Solutions (RDS):** The Robotics and Digital Solutions segment, which includes offerings like minuteKEY and tag engraving, is identified as a growth area. After experiencing some fluctuations, this segment returned to growth in 2025, and its future growth potential will be a topic of discussion at the Investor Day, signaling its strategic importance for the company's revenue outlook.
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Share Repurchases
- Hillman's Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program.
- In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares of its common stock for $12.4 million at an average price of $9.07 per share.
- Ongoing opportunistic share repurchases are planned for 2026.
Share Issuance
- Between 2024 and 2025, the number of issued and outstanding shares increased by approximately 859,741 shares (from 196,705,710 to 197,565,451).
- Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) have been granted to executives, which vest in annual installments and convert into shares, leading to share issuance.
Inbound Investments
- In 2021, Hillman became a publicly traded company by merging with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which served as a significant inbound investment event.
Outbound Investments
- Hillman acquired Intex DIY in August 2024, which contributed to net sales growth in 2025.
- Management has indicated a healthy M&A pipeline with expectations for 1-2 bolt-on acquisition opportunities in 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $70 million in 2025, a decrease from $85 million in 2024.
- For 2026, expected capital expenditures are projected to be between $70 million and $75 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes the expansion of the "mini key 3.5 fleet" and investments in merchandising solutions for customers.
Peer Outperformance in Household Appliances
HLMN has outperformed 53% of its 17 Household Appliances peers over 5Y. Household Appliances ranks 18th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Household Appliances constituents that HLMN has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
16%
of 19 industry peers · -28.6% return
3Y
39%
of 18 industry peers · -18.7% return
5Y
53%
of 17 industry peers · -44.0% return
No Household Appliances peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten HLMN by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Household Appliances is HLMN's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -19.0% | 83.9% | 72.0% | LINC 298% · PRDO 233% · CVSA 230% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -16.2% | 17.6% | 37.1% | GRBK 192% · PHM 155% · TOL 128% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 8.3% | 36.2% | 11.4% | SIG 36% · FIVE 30% · ASO 23% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -17.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | MUSA 264% · PAG 174% · ORLY 117% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -24.7% | -10.0% | 4.5% | HVT 10% · LOW 6% · HD 5% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 13.2% | 43.5% | 3.4% | RCL 227% · MAR 153% · HLT 144% |
| Distributors | 4 | -11.7% | -23.8% | -7.7% | ARMK 155% · GPC 31% · LKQ -46% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -15.4% | 24.7% | -14.9% | HRB 114% · FTDR 75% · SCI 39% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -8.5% | 20.3% | -15.1% | SGI 47% · LZB 4% · MHK -34% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -10.3% | -15.2% | -17.7% | EAT 319% · CAKE 156% · RAVE 133% |
| Footwear | 9 | 34.1% | 32.3% | -24.5% | WEYS 168% · SHOO 17% · DECK 15% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -21.9% | -18.4% | -34.1% | GOLF 80% · HAS 12% · MCFT -19% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -11.8% | -25.4% | -37.0% | MCRI 114% · RSI 64% · RRR 61% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -5.6% | -3.7% | -37.9% | MOD 1486% · GTX 278% · STRT 90% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -8.2% | 5.0% | -40.4% | ELA 238% · RL 231% · TPR 225% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -5.7% | -12.0% | -40.4% | OSW 127% · JAKK 101% · ESCA 15% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | -12.7% | 5.3% | -43.4% | ANF 304% · URBN 142% · ROST 111% |
| Household Appliances ← | 18 | 0.6% | 24.8% | -44.7% | FLXS 173% · KEQU 165% · HBB 115% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | -15.8% | 13.9% | -55.7% | DDS 316% · EBAY 58% · AMZN 45% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -16.3% | 19.8% | -57.2% | BBY 0% · GME -57% · UPBD -60% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -67.8% | -48.2% | -71.9% | GM 82% · F 49% · TSLA 48% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -33.7% | -53.7% | -78.1% | TLF 108% · BBW 98% · WINA 77% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -14.9% | -7.2% | -78.4% | AXIL 2400% · GRMN 74% · MSN -56% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Hillman Solutions Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Hillman Solutions Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| How Does HLMN Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | 08/20/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is HLMN Stock Still the Best Pick Among Its Peers? | 08/20/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,571 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,002 |
| FCF LTM | 812 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 665 |
| CFO LTM | 987 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 908 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.98 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/03/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -35.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.19 | $8.47 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -14.7% | -17.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.3% | 39.2% |
| Downside Capture | 230.87 | 155.14 |
| Upside Capture | 150.84 | 86.87 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.0% | 40.1% |
HLMN Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.62 | 2.09 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Up Beta | 7.75 | 3.53 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 2.01 | 1.13 |
| Down Beta | 1.96 | 1.22 | 0.28 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| Up Capture | 238% | 133% | 141% | 106% | 70% | 148% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 28 | 55 | 105 | 346 |
| Down Capture | 421% | 209% | 126% | 141% | 122% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 26 | 35 | 71 | 139 | 384 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -27.7% | 39.2% | -0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -4.5% | 19.5% | -0.36 | 44.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.8% | 0.99 | 40.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 29.2% | 0.59 | 15.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.9% | 20.4% | 1.81 | -28.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 13.6% | 0.22 | 25.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.9% | 43.8% | -0.68 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -10.4% | 39.8% | -0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.9% | 24.1% | 0.16 | 49.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.5% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.5% | 0.46 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 49.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.9% | 52.6% | 0.37 | 21.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -3.2% | 38.1% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.9% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 48.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.3% | 0.61 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 47.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.4% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 19.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 14.4% | 9.3% | -11.9% |
| 4/27/2026 | -5.1% | -14.6% | -14.5% |
| 2/17/2026 | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -7.4% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.1% | -2.1% | -13.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.8% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -4.3% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.1% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 14.4% | 9.3% | -11.9% |
| 4/27/2026 | -5.1% | -14.6% | -14.5% |
| 2/17/2026 | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -7.4% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.1% | -2.1% | -13.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 7.7% | 0.4% | 8.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -4.3% | -5.0% | -9.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | 4.8% | 7.1% | 16.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.3% | 5.8% | 15.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | -4.5% | -4.3% | -12.4% |
| 5/9/2023 | 0.1% | -1.2% | 9.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -12.8% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.2% | 0.8% | 15.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | -9.7% | -8.6% | -18.1% |
| 5/3/2022 | 4.8% | 1.4% | 3.3% |
| 3/2/2022 | 7.3% | 16.1% | 30.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | -7.6% | -2.3% | -9.9% |
| 7/30/2021 | 2.3% | 5.8% | -1.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.8% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -4.3% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.1% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 1.67 Bil | 1.70 Bil | 1.72 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.68 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 285.00 Mil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 1.63 Bil | 1.68 Bil | 1.73 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 1.60 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 1.70 Bil | 6.1% | Higher New | Actual: 1.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 2.8% | Higher New | Actual: 272.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Year-end leverage | Reported | 2.4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.4 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Net Sales | Reported | 1.53 Bil | 1.55 Bil | 1.57 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 270.00 Mil | 272.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 270.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/10/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 7.25 | 13,750 | 99,688 | 426,699 | Form |
| 2 | Parker, Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 8.57 | 17,381 | 148,955 | 468,976 | Form |
| 3 | Moore, Scott Kelley | Div. Pres. - Robo. and Digital | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 1,451 | 12,029 | 896,729 | Form |
| 4 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 11,804 | 97,855 | 601,895 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 7.25 | 13,750 | 99,688 | 426,699 | Form |
| 2 | Parker, Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 8.57 | 17,381 | 148,955 | 468,976 | Form |
| 3 | Moore, Scott Kelley | Div. Pres. - Robo. and Digital | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 1,451 | 12,029 | 896,729 | Form |
| 4 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 11,804 | 97,855 | 601,895 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Household Appliances Resources |
| Twice |
| Appliance Retailer |
| Consumer Reports - Appliances |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 9/10/2026