Fastenal (FAST)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $41.855 | Market Cap: $48.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Fastenal (FAST)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $41.855Market Cap: $48.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 47x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksFAST key risks include [1] intense competitive pricing pressure from industrial rivals and Amazon Business, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 47x |
| Key risksFAST key risks include [1] intense competitive pricing pressure from industrial rivals and Amazon Business, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FAST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Fastenal (FAST) experienced a notable stock decline of approximately 15.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors during this period.
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss on EPS: Fastenal reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 13, 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29, falling slightly short of the expected $0.30. This represented a 3.33% negative surprise and contributed to cautious investor sentiment, resulting in a pre-market stock decline of 0.9% immediately following the announcement. While revenue met expectations at $2.13 billion, the EPS miss was a key point for the stock's performance.
2. Sluggish Industrial Economy and Macroeconomic Concerns: Management commentary during the Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted a "sluggish industrial environment," with the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) averaging around 48.6 in the quarter, indicating contraction. This broader economic weakness in the industrial sector, despite Fastenal's efforts in market share gains, likely weighed on investor outlook for the company's future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FAST Return | 37% | 34% | -24% | 41% | 14% | 20% | 167% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 35% | 11% | 28% | 7% | 17% | 188% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FAST Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 33% | 75% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 62% | 48% | 55% | 57% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FAST Max Drawdown | -23% | -9% | -30% | -2% | -4% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -7% | -15% | -9% | -14% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GWW, MSM, WCC, AIT, GPC. See FAST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FAST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 430 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JCI, GWW, AIT, MSM, URI
In The Past
Fastenal's stock fell -31.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -31.9% loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FAST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 05312019 | FAST | Fastenal | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 17.6% | 38.5% | -6.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 05312019 | FAST | Fastenal | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 17.6% | 38.5% | -6.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fastenal
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 189.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| Rev LTM | 12,874 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,313 |
| FCF LTM | 353 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 613 |
| CFO LTM | 575 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 915 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 25.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fasteners | 2,380 | 2,373 | 2,002 | 1,689 | 1,824 |
| Safety supplies | 1,558 | 1,452 | 1,274 | 1,440 | 955 |
| Tools | 624 | 586 | 511 | 463 | 528 |
| Janitorial supplies | 617 | 558 | 493 | 553 | 416 |
| Hydraulics & pneumatics | 492 | 454 | 385 | 333 | 363 |
| Material handling | 411 | 398 | 337 | 288 | 315 |
| Cutting tools | 389 | 349 | 301 | 265 | 304 |
| Electrical supplies | 338 | 307 | 258 | 232 | 251 |
| Welding supplies | 301 | 272 | 228 | 198 | 224 |
| Other | 235 | 230 | 222 | 186 | 155 |
| Total | 7,347 | 6,981 | 6,011 | 5,647 | 5,334 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2025 | 1.0% | 1.6% | -2.0% |
| 7/14/2025 | 4.2% | 6.4% | 11.1% |
| 4/11/2025 | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| 1/17/2025 | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 10/11/2024 | 9.8% | 10.9% | 19.7% |
| 7/12/2024 | 2.0% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| 4/11/2024 | -6.5% | -8.4% | -9.0% |
| 1/18/2024 | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 5.0% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.6% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 10.9% | 21.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -8.4% | -9.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7172025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10162024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7172024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4162024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10172023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7182023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4182023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10182022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7182022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4182022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |