Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $169.005 | Market Cap: $7.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $169.005Market Cap: $7.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, and Energy Efficient Building Materials. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, and Energy Efficient Building Materials. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SSD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 2, 2025, Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) stock experienced a reported decline of 10.4%. While the company reported strong third-quarter earnings in late October 2025, several factors may have contributed to this downward movement:
1. Persistent Weakness in the Housing Market: Despite the company's performance, the broader market context indicated a "sustained period of housing market weakness" and a "flat housing market." This overarching industry trend likely dampened investor sentiment towards building material companies like Simpson Manufacturing.
2. Impact of Tariffs on Costs and Margins: Simpson Manufacturing faced a significant "$100 million cost headwind" due to tariffs on imported fasteners and anchors. The company acknowledged that price increases implemented did not fully cover the margin impact of these increased costs, raising concerns about future profitability.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SSD Return | 18% | 50% | -36% | 125% | -16% | 2% | 119% |
| Peers Return | 68% | 30% | -28% | 51% | 0% | -11% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SSD Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 37% | 53% | 58% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SSD Max Drawdown | -39% | -1% | -45% | 0% | -19% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -5% | -37% | -6% | -21% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAS, OC, TREX, LEG, TT. See SSD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SSD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 309 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1750 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MAS, OC, TREX, LEG, TT
In The Past
Simpson Manufacturing's stock fell -45.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -45.0% loss requires a 82.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SSD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08312022 | SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 74.3% | -17.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08312022 | SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 74.3% | -17.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Simpson Manufacturing
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,885 |
| Op Inc LTM | 869 |
| FCF LTM | 563 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 634 |
| CFO LTM | 715 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 780 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 19.0 |
| P/CFO | 15.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ANDRASICK JAMES S | 11122025 | Sell | 170.00 | 600 | 102,000 | 31,110 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |