Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $71.84 | Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $71.84Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SWK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) experienced a -0.1% movement in its stock, influenced by a combination of factors, including its third-quarter earnings report, updated financial outlook, and broader market conditions.
1. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance. Stanley Black & Decker, despite reporting a beat on adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter of 2025, lowered its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance. The company adjusted its full-year projections to approximately $4.55 per share, down from a previous expectation of $4.65 per share, citing higher production costs as a contributing factor. This downward revision in the outlook likely tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to slight negative pressure on the stock.
2. Flat Revenue Performance with Anticipated Lower Volume. The company's third-quarter revenues of $3.8 billion were in line with the prior year's performance, but this stability was largely due to price and currency gains offsetting an anticipated 6% decline in volume. While meeting expectations, flat revenue growth, particularly when driven by pricing rather than volume, can be viewed cautiously by the market, suggesting underlying demand challenges.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SWK Return | 10% | 7% | -59% | 36% | -15% | -7% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 27% | -3% | 16% | 23% | 3% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SWK Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 17% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 70% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SWK Max Drawdown | -56% | -5% | -61% | -0% | -19% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -4% | -23% | -12% | -6% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHR, HON, TT, EMR, SNA. See SWK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 414 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DHR, HON, TT, EMR, SNA
In The Past
Stanley Black & Decker's stock fell -67.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -67.5% loss requires a 208.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SWK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 63.1% | 103.1% | -7.9% |
| 10312018 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 32.6% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 63.1% | 103.1% | -7.9% |
| 10312018 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 32.6% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stanley Black & Decker
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Link Janet | SVP, General Counsel & Sec'y | 11062025 | Sell | 69.08 | 11,766 | 812,764 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |