Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $65.8 | Market Cap: $10.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $65.8Market Cap: $10.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SWK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between July 31, 2025, and November 15, 2025, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) stock experienced a -1.9% movement, primarily influenced by its third-quarter 2025 earnings report and associated forward-looking statements.
1. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance: The company trimmed its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance from approximately $4.65 to about $4.55. This revision, though seemingly small, contributed to investor caution as it signals potential headwinds for future profitability.
2. Persistent Decline in Sales Volume: Stanley Black & Decker reported that its third-quarter revenues were in line with the prior year, primarily because price and currency gains were offset by an anticipated 6% lower volume. The Tools & Outdoor segment, in particular, saw a 2% organic revenue decline, driven by a 7% decrease in volume due to a persistently soft consumer backdrop and tariff-related promotional reductions within the retail channel.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SWK Return | 10% | 7% | -59% | 36% | -15% | -13% | -52% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 27% | -3% | 16% | 23% | 1% | 122% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SWK Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 17% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 70% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SWK Max Drawdown | -56% | -5% | -61% | -0% | -19% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -4% | -23% | -12% | -6% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHR, HON, TT, EMR, SNA. See SWK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 414 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DHR, HON, TT, EMR, SNA
In The Past
Stanley Black & Decker's stock fell -67.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -67.5% loss requires a 208.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SWK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 03312020 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 63.1% | 103.1% | -7.9% |
| 10312018 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 32.6% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 03312020 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 63.1% | 103.1% | -7.9% |
| 10312018 | SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 32.6% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stanley Black & Decker
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 210.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 82.4 |
| Rev LTM | 19,415 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,648 |
| FCF LTM | 2,637 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,237 |
| CFO LTM | 3,054 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,601 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 82.4 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.3 |
| P/E | 24.8 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 0.4% | 2.4% | |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.2% | -8.1% | 1.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | -2.0% | -3.7% | 8.6% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.2% | 0.7% | -0.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -8.8% | -8.3% | -13.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 10.0% | -0.7% | 3.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -7.5% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 2/1/2024 | -1.5% | -3.9% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 17 | 17 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -5.9% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 10.0% | 12.0% | 17.1% |
| Max Negative | -16.1% | -20.2% | -19.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Link Janet | SVP, General Counsel & Sec'y | 2072025 | Sell | 85.24 | 1,990 | 169,630 | 840,649 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |