Tearsheet

Hillman Solutions (HLMN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.915 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Household Appliances

Hillman Solutions (HLMN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.915
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Household Appliances

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%
2   Key risks
HLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more.
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%
5 Key risks
HLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HLMN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate -9.7% stock movement of Hillman Solutions (HLMN) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Q3 2025 Revenue Slightly Below Expectations**

Hillman Solutions reported its third-quarter 2025 revenue of $424.9 million, which, despite an 8% year-over-year increase, was slightly below analyst expectations of $425.05 million. This marginal revenue miss, even with an earnings per share (EPS) beat, contributed to a negative market reaction. **2. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 Earnings Release**

Despite the company exceeding earnings per share expectations and showcasing strong improvements in profitability metrics such as adjusted EBITDA and gross margins in its Q3 2025 report on November 4, 2025, Hillman Solutions' shares experienced a decline. The stock fell 6.2% after the announcement and saw a 1.19% drop in pre-market trading. **3. Concerns Regarding Valuation and Revenue Trajectory**

Market observers noted concerns about Hillman Solutions' valuation, highlighting a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio of 87.7x, which was considerably higher than the US Machinery industry average of 24.7x. Additionally, the company's projected revenue growth of 5.4% annually was anticipated to trail the broader US market average of 10.5%, contributing to a more subdued growth outlook for investors. **4. Underperformance of the Canada Segment**

During the third quarter of 2025, Hillman Solutions' Canada segment recorded a modest decline in revenue and a notable 15.8% decrease in adjusted EBITDA. This segment's underperformance likely added to investor caution regarding the company's overall operational health. **5. Decline in Investor Sentiment and Search Interest**

Investor interest in Hillman Solutions experienced a significant drop, as evidenced by a 50% decrease in search interest for the company's stock from November 13, 2025, to December 13, 2025. This reduction in attention or confidence from investors could have played a role in the stock's negative movement during the period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HLMN Return3%-33%28%6%-7%
Peers Return23%28%-33%52%-5%-1%50%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HLMN Win Rate33%42%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%32%60%43%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HLMN Max Drawdown-7%-37%-9%-7%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-5%-43%-1%-14%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FBIN, SWK, ITW, FAST, SSD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHLMNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-1.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven14 days148 days

Compare to SN, IRBT, ALH, XWIN, WHR


In The Past

Hillman Solutions's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Hillman Solutions (HLMN)

Better Bets than Hillman Solutions (HLMN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HLMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hillman Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HLMNFBINSWKITWFASTSSDMedian
NameHillman .Fortune .Stanley .Illinois.Fastenal Simpson . 
Mkt Price8.9251.7971.92252.4041.87166.4861.86
Mkt Cap1.86.210.973.448.16.98.9
Rev LTM1,5374,49015,16615,8837,9982,3116,244
Op Inc LTM1116631,1244,1621,616447893
FCF LTM413953702,845965239382
FCF 3Y Avg1075546442,8111,069263599
CFO LTM1175436953,2771,210419619
CFO 3Y Avg1847579883,2651,279402873

Growth & Margins

HLMNFBINSWKITWFASTSSDMedian
NameHillman .Fortune .Stanley .Illinois.Fastenal Simpson . 
Rev Chg LTM4.5%-3.8%-1.4%-0.4%6.9%4.3%1.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.3%22.7%-3.6%0.5%5.5%3.9%2.6%
Rev Chg Q8.0%-0.5%0.1%2.3%11.7%6.2%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%-0.1%0.0%0.6%2.9%1.6%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM7.2%14.8%7.4%26.2%20.2%19.3%17.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.6%15.4%5.8%25.9%20.4%20.4%17.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.1%-0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%-0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%12.1%4.6%20.6%15.1%18.1%13.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.4%16.5%6.4%20.4%16.9%18.0%16.7%
FCF/Rev LTM2.7%8.8%2.4%17.9%12.1%10.3%9.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%12.1%4.1%17.6%14.2%11.8%12.0%

Valuation

HLMNFBINSWKITWFASTSSDMedian
NameHillman .Fortune .Stanley .Illinois.Fastenal Simpson . 
Mkt Cap1.86.210.973.448.16.98.9
P/S1.21.40.74.87.03.02.2
P/EBIT16.511.413.818.034.715.616.0
P/E48.419.625.625.145.920.225.4
P/CFO15.511.816.223.146.516.616.4
Total Yield2.1%7.0%8.3%6.3%3.9%5.6%6.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%4.4%2.3%1.7%0.7%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.0%6.9%4.7%3.8%2.7%3.9%4.3%
D/E0.40.40.60.10.00.10.3
Net D/E0.40.40.60.10.00.00.3

Returns

HLMNFBINSWKITWFASTSSDMedian
NameHillman .Fortune .Stanley .Illinois.Fastenal Simpson . 
1M Rtn8.1%12.4%14.3%4.6%5.5%5.0%6.8%
3M Rtn-6.3%-8.5%-6.9%-3.2%-10.7%-8.5%-7.7%
6M Rtn33.1%5.5%13.9%5.9%1.9%9.4%7.7%
12M Rtn-16.4%-28.5%-8.4%-3.5%10.1%-5.6%-7.0%
3Y Rtn26.2%-5.1%6.1%24.1%88.6%86.6%25.1%
1M Excs Rtn7.4%11.7%13.5%3.8%4.7%4.3%6.1%
3M Excs Rtn-10.1%-10.8%-9.7%-5.0%-12.2%-10.8%-10.5%
6M Excs Rtn20.8%-6.9%1.5%-6.5%-10.5%-2.9%-4.7%
12M Excs Rtn-28.4%-41.5%-20.2%-16.0%-2.1%-20.2%-20.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-52.7%-67.5%-67.6%-48.4%6.3%11.5%-50.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Fastening and Hardware1,006990889838
Personal Protective216243285318
Keys and Key Accessories202197193161
Engraving and Resharp525659 
Engraving   51
Resharp   0
Total1,4761,4861,4261,368


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,125,367
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.6%
Average Daily Volume884,219
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.80
Basic Shares Quantity197,754,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-2.8%-5.6%-3.1%
8/5/202519.1%19.1%20.4%
4/29/2025-7.4%-2.5%-3.2%
2/18/2025-2.1%-2.1%-13.2%
11/5/20243.4%5.2%7.0%
8/6/20247.7%0.4%8.2%
5/7/2024-4.3%-5.0%-9.4%
2/22/20244.8%7.1%16.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive988
# Negative899
Median Positive4.8%5.8%15.5%
Median Negative-4.4%-4.0%-9.9%
Max Positive19.1%19.1%30.0%
Max Negative-9.7%-8.6%-18.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/24/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/25/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Parker Aaron JerrodChief People Offic.8112025Sell9.864,53244,686558,253Form
1Kraft Robert O.CFO and Treasurer5052025Buy7.09140,000992,6004,486,212Form
2Ride ScottPresident, Hillman Canada2212025Sell10.0612,359124,332485,264Form