Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $7.89 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Household Appliances
Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $7.89Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Household Appliances
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x Key risksHLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Key risksHLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hillman Solutions (HLMN) reported a revenue miss for fiscal Q4 2025 on February 17, 2026, prior to the start of the specified period, which contributed to negative investor sentiment. The company's revenue of $365.1 million fell short of analyst estimates of $378.8 million by approximately $13.7 million, a miss of 1.77%. This performance was noted to occur amid challenging market conditions, with existing home sales at 30-year lows impacting market volumes. The stock reacted negatively, falling 1.59% to $9.90 in premarket trading following the announcement. Hillman's fiscal year ends on the last Saturday in December.
2. The company experienced underperforming financial results in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 28, 2026. Hillman reported an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.07 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share by 12.50% and declining from $0.10 in the prior year quarter. Furthermore, the net loss widened to $(4.7) million, or $(0.02) per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(0.3) million in fiscal Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased by 8% to $50.1 million from $54.5 million in the prior year quarter.
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hillman Solutions (HLMN) reported a revenue miss for fiscal Q4 2025 on February 17, 2026, prior to the start of the specified period, which contributed to negative investor sentiment. The company's revenue of $365.1 million fell short of analyst estimates of $378.8 million by approximately $13.7 million, a miss of 1.77%. This performance was noted to occur amid challenging market conditions, with existing home sales at 30-year lows impacting market volumes. The stock reacted negatively, falling 1.59% to $9.90 in premarket trading following the announcement. Hillman's fiscal year ends on the last Saturday in December.
2. The company experienced underperforming financial results in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 28, 2026. Hillman reported an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.07 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share by 12.50% and declining from $0.10 in the prior year quarter. Furthermore, the net loss widened to $(4.7) million, or $(0.02) per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(0.3) million in fiscal Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased by 8% to $50.1 million from $54.5 million in the prior year quarter.
3. Hillman Solutions' cash flow deteriorated and its debt load increased during fiscal Q1 2026. Net cash used by operating activities significantly worsened to $(19.5) million, compared to $(0.7) million in the prior year quarter. Free Cash Flow also saw a decline, totaling $(34.3) million compared to $(21.3) million in fiscal Q1 2025. Concurrently, gross debt increased to $737.8 million at the end of fiscal Q1 2026, up from $693.1 million at the end of fiscal Q4 2025.
4. The Protective Solutions segment faced a tough quarter in fiscal Q1 2026, declining 17% overall. Hillman's President and CEO indicated that this segment's performance was expected to remain below 2025 levels for the full fiscal year 2026, signaling ongoing challenges in a key business area.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.8% change in HLMN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.20 | 7.89 | -3.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,552 | 1,563 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.6% | 2.3% | -11.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.1 | 43.2 | 7.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 197 | 197 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -3.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 57.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 65.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.8% change in HLMN stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.75 | 7.89 | -9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,537 | 1,563 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.4% | 2.3% | -5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.2 | 43.2 | -6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 198 | 197 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 43.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.4% | 55.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in HLMN stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.24 | 7.89 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,482 | 1,563 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.2% | 2.3% | 84.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 77.5 | 43.2 | -44.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 197 | 197 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.7% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.4% | 46.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.6% change in HLMN stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.10 | 7.89 | -2.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,473 | 1,563 | 6.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 1.0 | -7.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 195 | 197 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.1% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 55.4% | 51.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLMN Return | 3% | -33% | 28% | 6% | -11% | -7% | -23% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -33% | 52% | -5% | -3% | 11% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLMN Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 32% | 60% | 43% | 53% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLMN Max Drawdown | -27% | -46% | -35% | -20% | -37% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -43% | -20% | -22% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FBIN, SWK, ITW, FAST, SSD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 520 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Hillman Solutions's stock fell -33.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | HLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 520 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Hillman Solutions's stock fell -33.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is a North American provider of a wide array of hardware-related products and accompanying merchandising services. The company essentially supplies fundamental building blocks and finishing touches for homes and various projects, ranging from general hardware components to an extensive selection of fasteners and other specialized items.
Its comprehensive product portfolio includes essential hardware like anchor shackles, door hinges, garage door components, and various hooks and storage solutions. Hillman is also a significant supplier of fasteners, offering everything from anchors, bolts, and nuts to screws, washers, and specialized kits. Beyond these, the company provides a diverse range of items such as driveway markers, numbers, letters, signs, wall hangings, and personal protective equipment like face masks. It also offers key duplication and engraving services, alongside electrical, plumbing, and automotive accessories, all sold under a portfolio of recognized brands including DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, and minute key.
Hillman Solutions serves a broad customer base primarily through various retail channels, including independent hardware stores, major home centers, mass merchants, and even pet supply stores. Additionally, the company supplies its products to industrial original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), positioning itself as a key behind-the-scenes supplier for both consumer and industrial markets.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Hillman Solutions:
- The Fastenal of the retail hardware world: Like Fastenal provides essential fasteners and industrial supplies directly to businesses, Hillman Solutions supplies a vast array of hardware, fasteners, and related products primarily to retail stores like Home Depot and Lowe's.
- Like Sysco, but for hardware stores and home centers: Similar to how Sysco is the unseen supplier providing restaurants with everything from food to kitchen essentials, Hillman Solutions is a major supplier that stocks the shelves of hardware stores and home centers with a huge variety of small, everyday hardware and home improvement items.
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- Hardware Components: Provides a wide array of functional hardware items such as hinges, hooks, garage door parts, and springs.
- Fasteners: Offers a comprehensive range of connecting elements including anchors, bolts, nails, screws, nuts, and washers.
- Identification & Safety Products: Supplies items like driveway markers, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, and safety tapes.
- Structural Materials: Distributes threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and various slotted and aluminum angles.
- Wall Hanging Solutions: Features products for mounting and decorating walls, including picture hanging hardware, hooks, adhesives, and mirrors.
- Personal Protective Equipment (PPE): Sells essential safety gear such as face masks, gloves, and glasses.
- Keys & Engraving: Provides services and products related to keys and engraving.
- Specialty Product Categories: Offers a selection of electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories.
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Jon Michael Adinolfi assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Hillman Solutions on January 1, 2025, after serving as Chief Operating Officer since June 2023. Prior to becoming COO, he was Divisional President, Hillman U.S., a position he held since joining the company in 2019. Before his tenure at Hillman, Mr. Adinolfi held several leadership roles at Stanley Black & Decker, including President of U.S. Retail from November 2016 to July 2019, President of Hand Tools from October 2013 to December 2016, and CFO - North America, CDIY from June 2011 to September 2013. He also served as President of Crown Bolt from 2008 to 2011, a company that was a fastener supplier for Home Depot.
Robert Kraft, Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerRobert Kraft joined Hillman as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer in November 2017. Before his role at Hillman, Mr. Kraft served as the President of the Omnicare (Long Term Care) division and an Executive Vice President of CVS Health Corporation from August 2015 to September 2017. He was previously Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Omnicare, Inc. from November 2010 to August 2015, and managed the sale of Omnicare to CVS Health for $13 billion. Mr. Kraft began his career in 1992 with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, where he was admitted as a Partner in 2004, gaining significant experience with both publicly held and private equity-backed organizations. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Douglas J. Cahill, Executive ChairmanDouglas J. Cahill transitioned to the role of Executive Chairman on January 1, 2025, having previously served as Chairman since 2014 and President and Chief Executive Officer of Hillman since 2019. Prior to joining Hillman, Mr. Cahill was a Managing Director of CCMP Capital Advisors from July 2014 to July 2019 and a member of their Investment Committee, following an earlier role as an Executive Adviser of CCMP from March 2013. He held the position of President & CEO of Oreck from May 2010 until December 2012. Before Oreck, Mr. Cahill served for eight years as President & CEO of Doane Pet Care Company, a private label pet food manufacturer and a former CCMP portfolio company, which was subsequently sold to Mars, Inc. in 2006. From 2006 to 2009, he was President of Mars Petcare U.S. Mr. Cahill's background includes 13 years at Olin Corporation in various managerial and executive roles and a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Amanda Kitzberger, Chief Legal OfficerAmanda Kitzberger serves as Hillman Solutions' Chief Legal Officer.
Scott Moore, Divisional President, Robotics and Digital SolutionsScott Moore has served as Hillman's Divisional President, Robotics and Digital Solutions since June 2024. Before this, he was Hillman's Chief Technology Officer from August 2022 to May 2024. His prior experience includes serving as Senior Vice President of IT for MinuteKEY from March 2011 to August 2022 and as CIO for AP-Networks from April 2006 to February 2011.
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The key risks to Hillman Solutions' business include:
- Customer Concentration: Hillman Solutions is highly dependent on a few large customers, with Lowe's Companies accounting for 19% of its overall revenue and both Lowe's and Home Depot together representing a significant portion of its total revenues. Any adverse changes in these relationships, such as shifts in purchasing policies or a decline in their business, could materially impact Hillman's financial performance.
- Economic Dependence and Market Conditions: The company's sales are strongly influenced by the broader economic climate and the health of the home improvement industry. Factors such as unfavorable economic conditions, including inflation, recessions, high interest rates affecting the housing and repair/remodel markets, and changes in consumer spending, can negatively affect sales and overall financial health.
- Supply Chain Costs and Tariffs: Hillman Solutions relies on foreign suppliers, predominantly in China and Taiwan, for a majority of its products. This exposes the company to risks associated with increased supply chain costs, including those related to raw materials, sourcing, transportation, energy, and significant tariff-related expenses.
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Hillman Solutions (symbol: HLMN) operates in several addressable markets within North America, primarily related to hardware, fasteners, home improvement, safety products, and key duplication services. The estimated sizes for these markets in North America are as follows:
- Home Improvement Market (North America): This broad market, which includes many of Hillman's hardware-related products and services, was valued at approximately USD 308.00 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 385.19 billion by 2034. Another estimate placed the North America home improvement market size at over USD 415 billion in 2020. Separately, the North America DIY (Do-It-Yourself) home improvement retailing market generated an estimated USD 467.4 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach up to USD 688.8 billion by 2030. North America accounts for approximately 44% to 48.7% of the global DIY home improvement market.
- Industrial Fasteners Market (North America): The market for industrial fasteners in North America was valued at USD 27.78 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 41.81 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the North American Industrial Fasteners market size was valued at USD 16.31 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 24.97 billion by 2030. North America is also the largest market for construction fasteners, holding approximately 40% of the global market share.
- Workplace Safety Products Market (North America): For products such as face masks, gloves, and glasses, the North America workplace safety market generated a revenue of approximately USD 6.52 billion in 2024, with personal protective equipment (PPE) being the largest product type.
- Key Duplicating Machine Market (North America): North America holds approximately 30% of the global key duplicating machine market. The global market is projected to reach USD 2.3 billion by 2033, suggesting an addressable market of approximately USD 0.69 billion for key duplicating machines in North America by that year.
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Share Repurchases
- Hillman's Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program.
- In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares of its common stock for $12.4 million at an average price of $9.07 per share.
- Ongoing opportunistic share repurchases are planned for 2026.
Share Issuance
- Between 2024 and 2025, the number of issued and outstanding shares increased by approximately 859,741 shares (from 196,705,710 to 197,565,451).
- Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) have been granted to executives, which vest in annual installments and convert into shares, leading to share issuance.
Inbound Investments
- In 2021, Hillman became a publicly traded company by merging with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which served as a significant inbound investment event.
Outbound Investments
- Hillman acquired Intex DIY in August 2024, which contributed to net sales growth in 2025.
- Management has indicated a healthy M&A pipeline with expectations for 1-2 bolt-on acquisition opportunities in 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $70 million in 2025, a decrease from $85 million in 2024.
- For 2026, expected capital expenditures are projected to be between $70 million and $75 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes the expansion of the "mini key 3.5 fleet" and investments in merchandising solutions for customers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Hillman Solutions Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Hillman Solutions Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| How Does HLMN Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | 08/20/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is HLMN Stock Still the Best Pick Among Its Peers? | 08/20/2025 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,442 |
| Op Inc LTM | 899 |
| FCF LTM | 542 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 611 |
| CFO LTM | 745 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 862 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/03/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.88 | $8.77 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.2% | -10.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.5% | 41.6% |
| Downside Capture | 167.27 | 110.11 |
| Upside Capture | 84.66 | 99.85 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 54.7% | 34.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.42 | 2.14 | 1.51 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| Up Beta | 3.36 | 2.74 | 2.39 | 2.09 | 1.82 | 1.05 |
| Down Beta | 2.67 | 2.25 | 0.96 | 1.26 | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Up Capture | 46% | 41% | 78% | 64% | 91% | 141% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 27 | 52 | 106 | 353 |
| Down Capture | 432% | 394% | 171% | 133% | 121% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 71 | 135 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 21.2% | 41.5% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.1% | 18.5% | 0.38 | 45.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.1% | 12.4% | 1.59 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 18.8% | 0.77 | -20.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.8% | 13.8% | 0.57 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.2% | 42.5% | -1.09 | 16.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -7.2% | 38.9% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.9% | 0.24 | 50.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 47.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.28 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 49.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 54.1% | 0.37 | 22.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -2.0% | 37.7% | 0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 49.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 46.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.1% | 0.62 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 48.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 20.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/27/2026 | -5.1% | -14.6% | -14.5% |
| 2/17/2026 | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -7.4% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.1% | -2.1% | -13.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 7.7% | 0.4% | 8.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.8% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -4.3% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.1% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/27/2026 | -5.1% | -14.6% | -14.5% |
| 2/17/2026 | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -7.4% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.1% | -2.1% | -13.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 7.7% | 0.4% | 8.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -4.3% | -5.0% | -9.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | 4.8% | 7.1% | 16.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.3% | 5.8% | 15.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | -4.5% | -4.3% | -12.4% |
| 5/9/2023 | 0.1% | -1.2% | 9.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -12.8% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.2% | 0.8% | 15.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | -9.7% | -8.6% | -18.1% |
| 5/3/2022 | 4.8% | 1.4% | 3.3% |
| 3/2/2022 | 7.3% | 16.1% | 30.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | -7.6% | -2.3% | -9.9% |
| 7/30/2021 | 2.3% | 5.8% | -1.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.8% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -4.3% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.1% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.63 Bil | 1.68 Bil | 1.73 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 100.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.60 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 1.70 Bil | 6.1% | Higher New | Actual: 1.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 2.8% | Higher New | Actual: 272.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 100.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/9/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore, Scott Kelley | Div. Pres. - Robo. and Digital | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 1,451 | 12,029 | 896,729 | Form |
| 2 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 11,804 | 97,855 | 601,895 | Form |
| 3 | Parker, Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 9.86 | 4,532 | 44,686 | 558,253 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore, Scott Kelley | Div. Pres. - Robo. and Digital | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 1,451 | 12,029 | 896,729 | Form |
| 2 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 11,804 | 97,855 | 601,895 | Form |
| 3 | Parker, Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 9.86 | 4,532 | 44,686 | 558,253 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Household Appliances Resources |
| Twice |
| Appliance Retailer |
| Consumer Reports - Appliances |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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