Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Market Price (4/22/2026): $8.97 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Market Price (4/22/2026): $8.97Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Key risksHLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Home Improvement & Renovation, and Building & Construction Support. Themes include Hardware & Fastener Supply Chain, Retail Merchandising & Category Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Key risksHLMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of revenue from a few major retailers, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock has gained about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q4 2025 Financial Results and Conservative 2026 Outlook. Hillman Solutions reported mixed results for Q4 2025 on February 17, 2026, with earnings per share meeting consensus at $0.10, but revenue missing estimates by 1.77%, coming in at $365.1 million. While full-year 2025 saw record net sales of $1.552 billion and a doubling of GAAP net income to $40.3 million, the slight contraction in adjusted EBITDA margins to 15.8% from 16.1% and conservative 2026 guidance for modest earnings growth and margin normalization likely tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to the stock's flat movement.
2. Persistent Headwinds in the Housing and Remodeling Market. The home improvement sector faced continued challenges from macroeconomic factors during the period. Existing home sales were at 30-year lows, impacting market volumes in Q4 2025. High interest rates were a significant concern for 84% of home builders in 2025, with 65% expecting them to remain problematic in 2026, and 81% of builders noting buyers expecting prices or interest rates to fall. This broader market uncertainty and caution among consumers and builders created a drag on potential stock appreciation.
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1. Mixed Q4 2025 Financial Results and Conservative 2026 Outlook. Hillman Solutions reported mixed results for Q4 2025 on February 17, 2026, with earnings per share meeting consensus at $0.10, but revenue missing estimates by 1.77%, coming in at $365.1 million. While full-year 2025 saw record net sales of $1.552 billion and a doubling of GAAP net income to $40.3 million, the slight contraction in adjusted EBITDA margins to 15.8% from 16.1% and conservative 2026 guidance for modest earnings growth and margin normalization likely tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to the stock's flat movement.
2. Persistent Headwinds in the Housing and Remodeling Market. The home improvement sector faced continued challenges from macroeconomic factors during the period. Existing home sales were at 30-year lows, impacting market volumes in Q4 2025. High interest rates were a significant concern for 84% of home builders in 2025, with 65% expecting them to remain problematic in 2026, and 81% of builders noting buyers expecting prices or interest rates to fall. This broader market uncertainty and caution among consumers and builders created a drag on potential stock appreciation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in HLMN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.66 | 8.98 | 3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,537 | 1,552 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.4% | 2.6% | 6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.7 | 43.9 | -3.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 198 | 197 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.5% | 52.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.2% change in HLMN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.18 | 8.98 | -2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,505 | 1,552 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 2.6% | 79.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 83.5 | 43.9 | -47.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 198 | 197 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.5% | 51.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.2% change in HLMN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 121.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.79 | 8.98 | 2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,473 | 1,552 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.2% | 2.6% | 121.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 100.2 | 43.9 | -56.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 197 | 197 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.2% | 51.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.7% change in HLMN stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.42 | 8.98 | 6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 1,552 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 43.9 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 188 | 197 | -4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 76.7% | 56.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLMN Return | 3% | -33% | 28% | 6% | -11% | 3% | -15% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -33% | 52% | -5% | -3% | 5% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLMN Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 32% | 60% | 43% | 53% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLMN Max Drawdown | -7% | -37% | -9% | -7% | -32% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -43% | -1% | -14% | -19% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FBIN, SWK, ITW, FAST, SSD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FBIN, SWK, ITW, FAST, SSD
In The Past
Hillman Solutions's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Hillman Solutions:
- The Fastenal of the retail hardware world: Like Fastenal provides essential fasteners and industrial supplies directly to businesses, Hillman Solutions supplies a vast array of hardware, fasteners, and related products primarily to retail stores like Home Depot and Lowe's.
- Like Sysco, but for hardware stores and home centers: Similar to how Sysco is the unseen supplier providing restaurants with everything from food to kitchen essentials, Hillman Solutions is a major supplier that stocks the shelves of hardware stores and home centers with a huge variety of small, everyday hardware and home improvement items.
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- Hardware Components: Provides a wide array of functional hardware items such as hinges, hooks, garage door parts, and springs.
- Fasteners: Offers a comprehensive range of connecting elements including anchors, bolts, nails, screws, nuts, and washers.
- Identification & Safety Products: Supplies items like driveway markers, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, and safety tapes.
- Structural Materials: Distributes threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and various slotted and aluminum angles.
- Wall Hanging Solutions: Features products for mounting and decorating walls, including picture hanging hardware, hooks, adhesives, and mirrors.
- Personal Protective Equipment (PPE): Sells essential safety gear such as face masks, gloves, and glasses.
- Keys & Engraving: Provides services and products related to keys and engraving.
- Specialty Product Categories: Offers a selection of electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories.
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) sells its products primarily to other companies. Its major customers include:AI Analysis | Feedback
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Jon Michael Adinolfi, President and Chief Executive OfficerJon Michael Adinolfi assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Hillman Solutions on January 1, 2025, after serving as Chief Operating Officer since June 2023. Prior to becoming COO, he was Divisional President, Hillman U.S., a position he held since joining the company in 2019. Before his tenure at Hillman, Mr. Adinolfi held several leadership roles at Stanley Black & Decker, including President of U.S. Retail from November 2016 to July 2019, President of Hand Tools from October 2013 to December 2016, and CFO - North America, CDIY from June 2011 to September 2013. He also served as President of Crown Bolt from 2008 to 2011, a company that was a fastener supplier for Home Depot.
Robert Kraft, Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerRobert Kraft joined Hillman as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer in November 2017. Before his role at Hillman, Mr. Kraft served as the President of the Omnicare (Long Term Care) division and an Executive Vice President of CVS Health Corporation from August 2015 to September 2017. He was previously Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Omnicare, Inc. from November 2010 to August 2015, and managed the sale of Omnicare to CVS Health for $13 billion. Mr. Kraft began his career in 1992 with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, where he was admitted as a Partner in 2004, gaining significant experience with both publicly held and private equity-backed organizations. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Douglas J. Cahill, Executive ChairmanDouglas J. Cahill transitioned to the role of Executive Chairman on January 1, 2025, having previously served as Chairman since 2014 and President and Chief Executive Officer of Hillman since 2019. Prior to joining Hillman, Mr. Cahill was a Managing Director of CCMP Capital Advisors from July 2014 to July 2019 and a member of their Investment Committee, following an earlier role as an Executive Adviser of CCMP from March 2013. He held the position of President & CEO of Oreck from May 2010 until December 2012. Before Oreck, Mr. Cahill served for eight years as President & CEO of Doane Pet Care Company, a private label pet food manufacturer and a former CCMP portfolio company, which was subsequently sold to Mars, Inc. in 2006. From 2006 to 2009, he was President of Mars Petcare U.S. Mr. Cahill's background includes 13 years at Olin Corporation in various managerial and executive roles and a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Amanda Kitzberger, Chief Legal OfficerAmanda Kitzberger serves as Hillman Solutions' Chief Legal Officer.
Scott Moore, Divisional President, Robotics and Digital SolutionsScott Moore has served as Hillman's Divisional President, Robotics and Digital Solutions since June 2024. Before this, he was Hillman's Chief Technology Officer from August 2022 to May 2024. His prior experience includes serving as Senior Vice President of IT for MinuteKEY from March 2011 to August 2022 and as CIO for AP-Networks from April 2006 to February 2011.
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The key risks to Hillman Solutions' business include:
- Customer Concentration: Hillman Solutions is highly dependent on a few large customers, with Lowe's Companies accounting for 19% of its overall revenue and both Lowe's and Home Depot together representing a significant portion of its total revenues. Any adverse changes in these relationships, such as shifts in purchasing policies or a decline in their business, could materially impact Hillman's financial performance.
- Economic Dependence and Market Conditions: The company's sales are strongly influenced by the broader economic climate and the health of the home improvement industry. Factors such as unfavorable economic conditions, including inflation, recessions, high interest rates affecting the housing and repair/remodel markets, and changes in consumer spending, can negatively affect sales and overall financial health.
- Supply Chain Costs and Tariffs: Hillman Solutions relies on foreign suppliers, predominantly in China and Taiwan, for a majority of its products. This exposes the company to risks associated with increased supply chain costs, including those related to raw materials, sourcing, transportation, energy, and significant tariff-related expenses.
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Hillman Solutions (symbol: HLMN) operates in several addressable markets within North America, primarily related to hardware, fasteners, home improvement, safety products, and key duplication services. The estimated sizes for these markets in North America are as follows:
- Home Improvement Market (North America): This broad market, which includes many of Hillman's hardware-related products and services, was valued at approximately USD 308.00 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 385.19 billion by 2034. Another estimate placed the North America home improvement market size at over USD 415 billion in 2020. Separately, the North America DIY (Do-It-Yourself) home improvement retailing market generated an estimated USD 467.4 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach up to USD 688.8 billion by 2030. North America accounts for approximately 44% to 48.7% of the global DIY home improvement market.
- Industrial Fasteners Market (North America): The market for industrial fasteners in North America was valued at USD 27.78 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 41.81 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the North American Industrial Fasteners market size was valued at USD 16.31 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 24.97 billion by 2030. North America is also the largest market for construction fasteners, holding approximately 40% of the global market share.
- Workplace Safety Products Market (North America): For products such as face masks, gloves, and glasses, the North America workplace safety market generated a revenue of approximately USD 6.52 billion in 2024, with personal protective equipment (PPE) being the largest product type.
- Key Duplicating Machine Market (North America): North America holds approximately 30% of the global key duplicating machine market. The global market is projected to reach USD 2.3 billion by 2033, suggesting an addressable market of approximately USD 0.69 billion for key duplicating machines in North America by that year.
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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These drivers are primarily centered around strategic market expansion, product innovation, and M&A activities. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Hillman Solutions: * **New Business Wins:** Hillman Solutions expects growth from securing new business opportunities. This was a significant factor in 2025's strong performance, with specific mentions of new wins in PowerPro screws, rope, and chain contributing to the top line. The company's 2026 guidance also forecasts growth driven by new business wins. * **Multi-channel Expansion and Growth in the Pro-Channel:** A key strategic focus for Hillman is its multi-channel expansion, particularly capturing growth in the professional (pro) channel. This strategy is a prominent topic for the company's upcoming Investor Day in March 2026, indicating its importance for future revenue generation. * **Strategic Acquisitions:** Hillman has demonstrated a strategy of expanding its product portfolio through targeted acquisitions. In 2024, the company acquired Koch Industries and Intex DIY, which are expected to strengthen its position in key product categories. Management views mergers and acquisitions as incremental to their long-term growth targets and has indicated a promising M&A pipeline with potential deals on the horizon. * **Price Increases:** The company has successfully implemented price increases that have contributed to revenue growth. Price increases added 5.5 percentage points to revenue in 2025, and a mid-single-digit contribution from price is expected to drive further increases in 2026. * **Growth in Robotics and Digital Solutions (RDS):** The Robotics and Digital Solutions segment, which includes offerings like minuteKEY and tag engraving, is identified as a growth area. After experiencing some fluctuations, this segment returned to growth in 2025, and its future growth potential will be a topic of discussion at the Investor Day, signaling its strategic importance for the company's revenue outlook.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Hillman's Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program.
- In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares of its common stock for $12.4 million at an average price of $9.07 per share.
- Ongoing opportunistic share repurchases are planned for 2026.
Share Issuance
- Between 2024 and 2025, the number of issued and outstanding shares increased by approximately 859,741 shares (from 196,705,710 to 197,565,451).
- Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) have been granted to executives, which vest in annual installments and convert into shares, leading to share issuance.
Inbound Investments
- In 2021, Hillman became a publicly traded company by merging with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which served as a significant inbound investment event.
Outbound Investments
- Hillman acquired Intex DIY in August 2024, which contributed to net sales growth in 2025.
- Management has indicated a healthy M&A pipeline with expectations for 1-2 bolt-on acquisition opportunities in 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $70 million in 2025, a decrease from $85 million in 2024.
- For 2026, expected capital expenditures are projected to be between $70 million and $75 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes the expansion of the "mini key 3.5 fleet" and investments in merchandising solutions for customers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Hillman Solutions Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Hillman Solutions Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| How Does HLMN Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | 08/20/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is HLMN Stock Still the Best Pick Among Its Peers? | 08/20/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HLMN.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | HLMN | Hillman Solutions | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 1.8% | -8.0% | -17.7% |
| 03312022 | HLMN | Hillman Solutions | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -36.1% | -29.1% | -43.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,453 |
| Op Inc LTM | 938 |
| FCF LTM | 527 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 656 |
| CFO LTM | 725 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 912 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 27.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.98 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/03/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.54 | $9.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 5.1% | -0.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.3% | 43.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Upside Capture | -32.59 | 95.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.5% | 35.3% |
HLMN Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.47 | 0.84 | 1.12 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Up Beta | 3.51 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 1.75 | 1.97 | 1.65 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Up Capture | 200% | -23% | 54% | 66% | 95% | 162% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 28 | 52 | 110 | 358 |
| Down Capture | 70% | 61% | 74% | 92% | 113% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 35 | 68 | 133 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 21.1% | 43.6% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 38.5% | 15.4% | 1.91 | 48.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.7% | 12.7% | 1.52 | 36.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.4% | 27.5% | 1.25 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.4% | 16.2% | 1.25 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.7% | -0.14 | 15.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -2.6% | 38.8% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 17.3% | 0.59 | 51.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 17.8% | 0.99 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 18.8% | 0.47 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.1% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 50.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.8% | 56.4% | 0.29 | 21.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | -0.7% | 37.8% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 19.9% | 0.62 | 49.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 10.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 20.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/17/2026 | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.8% | -5.6% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -7.4% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.1% | -2.1% | -13.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 7.7% | 0.4% | 8.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -4.3% | -5.0% | -9.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.8% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -4.2% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 19.1% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.1% | -19.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.60 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 1.70 Bil | 6.1% | Higher New | Actual: 1.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 2.8% | Higher New | Actual: 272.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 100.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net Sales | 1.53 Bil | 1.55 Bil | 1.57 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 270.00 Mil | 272.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 270.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Year-end leverage | 2.4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.4 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker, Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 9.86 | 4,532 | 44,686 | 558,253 | Form |
| 2 | Kraft, Robert O | CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Buy | 5052025 | 7.09 | 140,000 | 992,600 | 4,486,212 | Form |
| 3 | Moore, Scott Kelley | Div. Pres. - Robo. and Digital | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 1,451 | 12,029 | 896,729 | Form |
| 4 | Kitzberger, Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 8.29 | 11,804 | 97,855 | 601,895 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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