Tearsheet

Illinois Tool Works (ITW)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $252.51 | Market Cap: $73.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Illinois Tool Works (ITW)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $252.51
Market Cap: $73.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  Key risks
ITW key risks include [1] persistently slow organic growth, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
7 Key risks
ITW key risks include [1] persistently slow organic growth, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ITW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Modest Organic Growth

Illinois Tool Works reported its third-quarter 2025 results, with revenue of $4.06 billion slightly missing analyst estimates of $4.09 billion, and organic revenue growth being modest at 1% or flat year-on-year, leading to a negative market reaction.

2. Demand Softness in Key End Markets

Management cited ongoing demand softness across several end markets, particularly in North America and Europe, as a reason for the modest revenue outcomes.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ITW Return16%24%-8%21%-1%1%59%
Peers Return21%23%-12%26%32%14%146%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ITW Win Rate58%75%33%50%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate55%63%37%50%63%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ITW Max Drawdown-34%-5%-28%-1%-10%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-7%-29%-10%-7%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMM, HON, DOV, PH, ETN. See ITW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventITWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven203 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven137 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven353 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven129.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,261 days1,480 days

Compare to GE, EMR, DOV, NDSN, LEG


In The Past

Illinois Tool Works's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Illinois Tool Works (ITW)

Better Bets than Illinois Tool Works (ITW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ITW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Illinois Tool Works

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ITWMMMHONDOVPHETNMedian
NameIllinois.3M Honeywel.Dover Parker H.Eaton  
Mkt Price252.40162.17199.89196.15863.19315.82226.14
Mkt Cap73.486.6127.026.9109.2122.897.9
Rev LTM15,88324,82540,6707,92320,03026,63322,428
Op Inc LTM4,1625,0827,6921,3234,1375,0494,606
FCF LTM2,8451,5886,1645673,3853,3223,084
FCF 3Y Avg2,8112,3935,2128863,0813,1142,946
CFO LTM3,2772,5417,4857843,8144,1043,546
CFO 3Y Avg3,2653,7156,3361,0723,4883,8813,601

Growth & Margins

ITWMMMHONDOVPHETNMedian
NameIllinois.3M Honeywel.Dover Parker H.Eaton  
Rev Chg LTM-0.4%1.1%7.5%2.6%0.2%8.2%1.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.5%-10.3%5.2%-1.6%7.4%9.7%2.9%
Rev Chg Q2.3%3.5%7.0%4.8%3.7%10.1%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%0.9%1.7%1.2%0.9%2.5%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM26.2%20.5%18.9%16.7%20.7%19.0%19.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.9%1.1%19.5%16.2%19.1%17.8%18.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%1.0%-0.9%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM20.6%10.2%18.4%9.9%19.0%15.4%16.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.4%13.8%16.4%13.9%17.5%15.8%16.1%
FCF/Rev LTM17.9%6.4%15.2%7.2%16.9%12.5%13.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.6%8.8%13.5%11.5%15.5%12.6%13.1%

Valuation

ITWMMMHONDOVPHETNMedian
NameIllinois.3M Honeywel.Dover Parker H.Eaton  
Mkt Cap73.486.6127.026.9109.2122.897.9
P/S4.83.33.32.94.85.54.1
P/EBIT18.016.015.215.820.529.017.0
P/E25.124.421.810.226.337.124.7
P/CFO23.132.617.929.225.135.527.2
Total Yield6.3%5.0%6.8%11.1%4.7%3.0%5.7%
Dividend Yield2.3%0.9%2.2%1.2%0.9%0.3%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%4.7%4.0%3.9%4.3%2.7%3.9%
D/E0.10.20.30.10.10.10.1
Net D/E0.10.10.20.10.10.10.1

Returns

ITWMMMHONDOVPHETNMedian
NameIllinois.3M Honeywel.Dover Parker H.Eaton  
1M Rtn4.6%-1.9%1.9%9.2%5.1%-7.9%3.2%
3M Rtn-3.2%5.0%0.7%14.7%17.1%-12.8%2.9%
6M Rtn5.9%14.8%-3.4%12.3%32.9%-5.2%9.1%
12M Rtn-3.5%29.0%-7.1%0.9%30.9%-7.8%-1.3%
3Y Rtn24.1%78.0%7.8%52.4%213.2%113.4%65.2%
1M Excs Rtn3.8%-2.7%1.2%8.5%4.4%-8.6%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-5.0%3.5%0.1%12.5%13.1%-16.1%1.8%
6M Excs Rtn-6.5%2.4%-15.8%-0.1%20.6%-17.5%-3.3%
12M Excs Rtn-16.0%16.1%-15.9%-12.4%18.7%-21.2%-14.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-48.4%2.3%-63.0%-23.4%134.1%36.6%-10.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)3,2352,9692,8002,5713,063
Test & Measurement and Electronics2,8322,8282,3461,9632,121
Food Equipment2,6222,4442,0781,7392,188
Construction Products2,0332,1131,9451,6521,625
Welding1,9021,8941,6501,3841,638
Polymers & Fluids1,8041,9051,8041,6221,669
Specialty Products1,6971,7991,8541,6601,825
Intersegment revenue-18-20-22-17-20
Total16,10715,93214,45512,57414,109


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Food Equipment713618469342578
Test & Measurement and Electronics686684643507542
Welding605583490376453
Construction Products578548530421383
Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)561499545457659
Polymers & Fluids482479457402381
Specialty Products449481504432472
Unallocated-34-102-161-55-66
Total4,0403,7903,4772,8823,402


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Test & Measurement and Electronics3,2303,2893,2422,2392,374
Corporate3,0232,6803,8094,6593,807
Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)2,6152,4472,2602,3022,417
Polymers & Fluids1,7621,8191,8811,8551,862
Specialty Products1,6271,6961,6821,6351,656
Construction Products1,2301,3701,3671,2391,176
Food Equipment1,1931,1881,0529831,042
Welding838933784700734
Total15,51815,42216,07715,61215,068


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,992,083
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.4%
Average Daily Volume1,228,693
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.50
Basic Shares Quantity290,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/24/2025-4.5%-5.4%-3.8%
7/30/2025-2.2%-1.3%2.8%
4/30/2025-0.8%-0.8%1.6%
2/5/2025-0.2%1.6%4.1%
10/30/20243.2%4.1%7.8%
7/30/20240.5%-3.5%0.5%
4/30/2024-2.1%-1.6%-5.7%
2/1/2024-2.1%-2.6%-0.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101215
# Negative13118
Median Positive2.3%2.5%4.1%
Median Negative-1.6%-2.4%-4.6%
Max Positive4.6%6.4%13.9%
Max Negative-4.6%-7.0%-11.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021