Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $264.01 | Market Cap: $76.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $264.01Market Cap: $76.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.4% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% Key risksITW key risks include [1] persistently slow organic growth, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Key risksITW key risks include [1] persistently slow organic growth, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weak Organic Revenue Growth in Fiscal Q1 2026.
Despite reporting a fiscal Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.66, which exceeded consensus estimates of $2.57, and total revenue growth of 4.6% to $4.02 billion, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) delivered organic revenue growth of only 0.4% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The modest organic growth, with total revenue significantly boosted by foreign currency translation (3.9%) and acquisitions (0.3%), likely disappointed investors. The company maintained its full-year 2026 organic growth projection of 1%-3%, signaling no change in underlying growth expectations despite the Q1 beat, which contributed to a 2.88% stock price decrease the day after the earnings release on April 30, 2026.
2. Decelerating U.S. Industrial Production and Broader Sector Slowdown.
The U.S. industrial sector, a key operating environment for ITW, has shown signs of decelerating growth during the period. While the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicated expansion in March 2026 with a reading of 52.7, it also highlighted a "sharp and concerning jump in the Prices Index to 78.3," signaling accelerating costs. More recently, in June 2026, industrial production growth slowed to 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.3% forecast and marking a decline from the prior reading of 0.9%. Manufacturing output specifically remained unchanged in May, indicating a cooling trend in the broader sector that impacts demand for ITW's products.
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weak Organic Revenue Growth in Fiscal Q1 2026.
Despite reporting a fiscal Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.66, which exceeded consensus estimates of $2.57, and total revenue growth of 4.6% to $4.02 billion, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) delivered organic revenue growth of only 0.4% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The modest organic growth, with total revenue significantly boosted by foreign currency translation (3.9%) and acquisitions (0.3%), likely disappointed investors. The company maintained its full-year 2026 organic growth projection of 1%-3%, signaling no change in underlying growth expectations despite the Q1 beat, which contributed to a 2.88% stock price decrease the day after the earnings release on April 30, 2026.
2. Decelerating U.S. Industrial Production and Broader Sector Slowdown.
The U.S. industrial sector, a key operating environment for ITW, has shown signs of decelerating growth during the period. While the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicated expansion in March 2026 with a reading of 52.7, it also highlighted a "sharp and concerning jump in the Prices Index to 78.3," signaling accelerating costs. More recently, in June 2026, industrial production growth slowed to 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.3% forecast and marking a decline from the prior reading of 0.9%. Manufacturing output specifically remained unchanged in May, indicating a cooling trend in the broader sector that impacts demand for ITW's products.
3. Persistent Inflationary Pressures and Trade Uncertainties for Manufacturers.
Manufacturers, including those in ITW's segments, faced continued challenges from rising costs and trade uncertainties throughout fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026. Industry surveys conducted in March 2026 indicated that a high cost of doing business, tariffs on raw materials, and ongoing inflation remained top concerns for manufacturers, directly impacting their margins. Additionally, 70.6% of manufacturers cited trade uncertainties as their most pressing business concern in Q1 2026, with geopolitical tensions and tariff volatility continuing to disrupt trade and drive up input costs. These macroeconomic headwinds create an unfavorable environment for multi-industrial companies like ITW.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.6% change in ITW stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 288.80 | 264.09 | -8.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,044 | 16,221 | 1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.1% | 19.3% | 1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.3 | 24.3 | -10.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 289 | 288 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ITW | -8.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.4% | 72.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.3% change in ITW stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 246.12 | 264.09 | 7.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,883 | 16,221 | 2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.1% | 19.3% | 1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.7 | 24.3 | 2.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 291 | 288 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ITW | 7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 67.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.5% change in ITW stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 239.03 | 264.09 | 10.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,764 | 16,221 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.4% | 19.3% | -9.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.8 | 24.3 | 16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 294 | 288 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ITW | 10.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 28.4% | 63.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.9% change in ITW stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 204.92 | 264.09 | 28.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,012 | 16,221 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 19.3% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 24.3 | 20.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 305 | 288 | 5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ITW | 28.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 54.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 95.3% | 72.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ITW Return | 24% | -8% | 21% | -1% | -0% | 7% | 44% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -12% | 26% | 32% | 12% | 14% | 129% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ITW Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 37% | 50% | 63% | 53% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ITW Max Drawdown | -13% | -28% | -15% | -13% | -20% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -30% | -20% | -14% | -25% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MMM, HON, DOV, PH, ETN. See ITW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ITW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Illinois Tool Works's stock fell -16.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ITW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 413 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Illinois Tool Works's stock fell -16.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is a global industrial manufacturer that designs and sells a wide range of specialized products and equipment. The company's business model is highly diversified, operating across seven distinct segments, which allows it to serve numerous industrial applications worldwide rather than being concentrated in a single product area.
ITW's extensive product portfolio includes essential components for the automotive industry, such as plastic and metal fasteners and assemblies, alongside comprehensive equipment and services for commercial kitchens, including cooking, refrigeration, warewashing, and food processing systems. Additionally, it offers engineered fastening solutions for residential and commercial construction, arc welding equipment and consumables, and specialized products like adhesives, sealants, and lubrication fluids for industrial and automotive aftermarket uses. The company also provides materials testing and measurement equipment, electronics manufacturing consumables, and systems for beverage packaging, product coding, and marking.
The primary customers and markets ITW serves are equally diverse, encompassing automotive original equipment manufacturers and the aftermarket, the commercial food equipment sector, residential and commercial construction, and general industrial applications. ITW leverages a global distribution network, supplying its products directly to industrial manufacturers and through independent distributors.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Illinois Tool Works (ITW):
- The 3M for industrial equipment and components.
- A diversified industrial supplier, similar to a B2B Honeywell.
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- Automotive Components: ITW provides plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automotive and other industrial uses.
- Food Service Equipment: The company offers warewashing, refrigeration, cooking, food processing equipment, ventilation systems, and related maintenance services.
- Testing & Electronics Solutions: ITW produces equipment, consumables, and software for material testing, measurement, and electronic subassembly production.
- Welding Equipment & Consumables: This includes arc welding equipment, metal arc welding consumables, and related accessories.
- Adhesives, Sealants & Fluids: ITW manufactures adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids, and polymers for industrial and automotive aftermarket applications.
- Construction Fastening Systems: The company offers engineered fastening systems and solutions for residential, renovation/remodel, and commercial construction.
- Specialty Industrial Products: This segment provides beverage packaging equipment, product coding and marking equipment, consumables, and appliance components.
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) primarily sells its industrial products and equipment to other companies (B2B).
The provided background information does not list specific customer company names. However, it details the major end markets and types of customers ITW serves globally. These include:
- Automotive OEM/Tiers: Manufacturers of automobiles and light trucks, as well as their direct suppliers of components and assemblies.
- Commercial Food Equipment: Businesses requiring warewashing, refrigeration, cooking, and food processing equipment, and related services.
- Construction: Companies involved in residential construction, renovation/remodel, and commercial construction, utilizing engineered fastening systems and solutions.
- General Industrial: A broad category encompassing various industrial manufacturers that use ITW's welding, testing, measurement, and other industrial products.
- Automotive Aftermarket: Businesses involved in auto maintenance and appearance, utilizing ITW's polymers and fluids for vehicle care.
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Christopher A. O'Herlihy, President & Chief Executive Officer
Mr. O'Herlihy became President & Chief Executive Officer of Illinois Tool Works Inc. and was appointed to the Board of Directors effective January 1, 2024. He joined ITW in 1989 and has held numerous roles within the company, including Group President within the Polymers & Fluids segment and Executive Vice President with worldwide responsibility for ITW's Food Equipment segment. From August 2015 to December 2023, he served as Vice Chairman. Mr. O'Herlihy has been with ITW for over 34 years and also serves on the Board of Directors for Masco Corporation.
Michael M. Larsen, Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Larsen joined ITW in 2013. Prior to ITW, he served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a director of Gardner Denver, Inc. from November 2012 to July 2013, and as interim Chief Executive Officer from July 2012 to November 2012. He also held the position of Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Gardner Denver, Inc. from October 2010 to August 2013. Before joining Gardner Denver, Mr. Larsen was Chief Financial Officer at General Electric Water & Process Technologies and accumulated over 15 years of experience in various global finance leadership roles across different GE businesses.
E. Scott Santi, Non-Executive Chairman
Mr. Santi has served as Non-Executive Chairman of ITW since March 1, 2024. Previously, he was the Chief Executive Officer of ITW from November 2012 until January 2024, and Chairman of the Board since May 2015. He joined ITW in 1983 and has spent his entire career with the company, having also served as Vice Chairman from December 2008 to October 2012 and Executive Vice President from October 2004 to December 2008. Mr. Santi is also a member of the Board of Directors of W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Patricia A. Hartzell, Executive Vice President
Guilherme Silva, Executive Vice President
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Key Risks
-
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Volatility: As a global company with operations and sales worldwide, ITW is significantly exposed to fluctuations in global economic conditions. Slower global economic growth, financial market instability, inflation, and rising interest rates can diminish demand for ITW's diverse range of industrial products and equipment. Geopolitical conflicts and foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations further compound this risk, impacting revenue and profitability, especially given that roughly half of the company's sales are generated overseas.
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Supply Chain Disruptions and Cost Inflation: ITW's manufacturing processes rely on various raw materials, exposing it to risks related to global supply chain instability and increases in raw material costs. Inflationary pressures can increase operational expenses, and if the company is unable to effectively pass these increased costs on to customers through pricing actions, its profit margins could be squeezed.
-
Challenges in Consistent Organic Growth: Despite ITW's focus on operational excellence and strong margins, the company faces ongoing challenges in achieving consistent organic revenue growth. While some segments may show strong performance, others, like the Automotive OEM and Specialty Products segments, have experienced periods of declining or limited organic growth. Analysts and company guidance sometimes point to low organic growth projections, indicating a bottleneck in top-line expansion which can concern investors prioritizing growth velocity.
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The clear emerging threat for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs).
This trend directly impacts ITW's:
- Automotive OEM segment: As the automotive industry shifts away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the demand for many traditional plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies specifically designed for ICE powertrains and related systems will decline over time. While EVs still require components, the nature, design, and volume of some existing parts will fundamentally change or become obsolete.
- Polymers & Fluids segment: This segment produces "fluids and polymers for auto aftermarket maintenance and appearance." EVs have significantly fewer moving parts requiring lubrication, different thermal management requirements, and generally lower maintenance needs compared to ICE vehicles. This will lead to a long-term decline in demand for many of ITW's traditional automotive aftermarket fluids and maintenance products as the global fleet transitions to electric.
This shift represents a fundamental disruption to key end markets for ITW, akin to how digital technology displaced analog products, making existing offerings less relevant over time.
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) operates across several diversified segments, serving a wide array of industrial product and equipment markets globally. The estimated addressable market sizes for its main products and services are detailed below:
- Automotive OEM (Plastic and Metal Components, Fasteners, and Assemblies): The global automotive fasteners market size was valued at approximately USD 25.36 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 40.64 billion by 2034. Other estimates place the global automotive fasteners market at USD 31.41 billion in 2025, growing to USD 47.95 billion by 2035, or USD 21.61 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 35.73 billion by 2033.
- Food Equipment (Warewashing, Refrigeration, Cooking, and Food Processing Equipment): The global food service equipment market size was estimated at USD 41.47 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 71.12 billion by 2033. Another report values this market at USD 49.51 billion in 2025, anticipating it to reach approximately USD 86.58 billion by 2035.
- Test & Measurement and Electronics (Equipment, Consumables, and Related Software for Testing and Measuring of Materials and Structures): The global materials testing instruments market size was valued at USD 676 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 872 million by 2034. The broader global material testing market was valued at USD 0.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.28 billion by 2034. Additionally, the global construction material testing equipment market, a sub-segment, was estimated at USD 2.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 3.94 billion by 2030.
- Welding (Arc Welding Equipment; and Metal Arc Welding Consumables and Related Accessories): The global welding equipment and consumables market was estimated at USD 14.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 24.3 billion in 2035. More specifically for consumables, the global welding consumables market size was USD 18.5 billion in 2025, with projections to reach USD 26.9 billion by 2034.
- Polymers & Fluids (Adhesives, Sealants, Lubrication and Cutting Fluids, and Fluids and Polymers for Auto Aftermarket Maintenance and Appearance):
- The global adhesives and sealants market size was estimated at USD 77.08 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 123.20 billion by 2033.
- The global industrial lubricants market size was estimated at USD 58.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 73.01 billion by 2033. Other sources indicate the market at USD 76.65 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 103.5 billion by 2034, or USD 76.81 billion in 2025, reaching USD 108.14 billion by 2035.
- The global automotive lubricants aftermarket size is estimated at USD 15.20 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 23.85 billion by 2032.
- Construction Products (Engineered Fastening Systems and Solutions): The global construction fasteners market was valued at USD 9.26 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 13.40 billion by 2033. The modular construction fasteners market, a specialized segment, is projected to expand from USD 1.6 billion in 2026 to USD 3.147 billion by 2036.
- Specialty Products (Product Coding and Marking Equipment and Consumables): The global coding and marking equipment market size was valued at USD 18.87 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 32.06 billion by 2034. Another estimate pegs the global coding and marking equipment market at USD 17.53 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 24.93 billion by 2030.
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) anticipates future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years to be driven by several key strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
- Strategic Focus on Organic Growth: ITW has made organic growth its highest priority in the "Next Phase of their Enterprise Strategy," which commenced in 2024. The company aims to establish consistent, above-market organic growth as a core strength by 2030, targeting 4% or more at the enterprise level. For 2024, ITW projects organic growth in the range of 1% to 3%. The company maintains this outlook, expecting favorable year-over-year comparisons and current demand levels to contribute to positive organic growth throughout the year.
- Customer-Back Innovation (CBI): This process is a crucial driver for achieving organic growth by developing innovative, customer-focused solutions. ITW is rigorously building out its CBI capabilities, mirroring the successful implementation of its 80/20 Front-to-Back strategy. CBI contributed 2.4% to organic growth in 2025 and is targeted to reach 3% annually by 2030, indicating a sustained effort in new product development and tailored offerings.
- Recovery and Performance in Key End Markets and Segments: ITW expects a rebound and sustained growth in several of its segments. Management has highlighted an improved product pipeline and increasing demand in the Test & Measurement and Electronics and Automotive businesses. The recovery in semiconductor and test and measurement segments is expected to be sustainable, supported by current orders and backlog. The Automotive OEM segment is outperforming global vehicle builds, driven by increased content per vehicle, product differentiation through innovation, and growth in electric vehicle platforms. Additionally, the company projects organic growth rates of 2-4% for its Food Equipment, Test & Measurement/Electronics, and Welding segments in 2026.
- Easing Macroeconomic Headwinds: The company anticipates moderating external challenges related to supply chain issues, input cost inflation, and reductions in customer and channel partner inventories. A more stable macroeconomic environment is expected to create a favorable backdrop for demand and sales, contributing to overall revenue expansion.
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Share Repurchases
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) made share repurchases totaling $1.5 billion in 2025, 2024, and 2023.
- The company reported total share repurchases of $3.01 billion since August 2023.
- ITW plans to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its shares in 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Acquisitions contributed 0.3% to the company's total revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- For the full year 2025, acquisitions contributed 0.1% to ITW's revenues.
Capital Expenditures
- Illinois Tool Works' capital expenditures from fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $403.8 million, with a median of $419 million.
- Capital expenditures peaked at $455 million in December 2023 and reached a 5-year low of $296 million in December 2021.
- In 2025, capital expenditures were $419 million, and in 2024, they were $437 million.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 246.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 102.6 |
| Rev LTM | 23,006 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,668 |
| FCF LTM | 2,739 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,849 |
| CFO LTM | 3,157 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,368 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | 3,288 | 3,188 | 3,235 | 2,969 | 2,800 |
| Test & Measurement and Electronics | 2,825 | 2,818 | 2,832 | 2,828 | 2,346 |
| Food Equipment | 2,699 | 2,647 | 2,622 | 2,444 | 2,078 |
| Welding | 1,890 | 1,851 | 1,902 | 1,894 | 1,650 |
| Construction Products | 1,820 | 1,909 | 2,033 | 2,113 | 1,945 |
| Specialty Products | 1,775 | 1,743 | 1,697 | 1,799 | 1,854 |
| Polymers & Fluids | 1,765 | 1,764 | 1,804 | 1,905 | 1,804 |
| Intersegment revenue | -18 | -22 | -18 | -20 | -22 |
| Total | 16,044 | 15,898 | 16,107 | 15,932 | 14,455 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food Equipment | 753 | 719 | 713 | 618 | 469 |
| Test & Measurement and Electronics | 694 | 703 | 686 | 684 | 643 |
| Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | 693 | 625 | 561 | 499 | 545 |
| Welding | 621 | 597 | 605 | 583 | 490 |
| Specialty Products | 553 | 528 | 449 | 481 | 504 |
| Construction Products | 550 | 559 | 578 | 548 | 530 |
| Polymers & Fluids | 493 | 484 | 482 | 479 | 457 |
| Unallocated | -141 | 49 | -34 | -102 | -161 |
| Total | 4,216 | 4,264 | 4,040 | 3,790 | 3,477 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Test & Measurement and Electronics | 3,186 | 3,230 | 3,289 | 3,242 | 2,239 |
| Corporate | 2,847 | 3,023 | 2,680 | 3,809 | 4,659 |
| Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | 2,578 | 2,615 | 2,447 | 2,260 | 2,302 |
| Polymers & Fluids | 1,673 | 1,762 | 1,819 | 1,881 | 1,855 |
| Specialty Products | 1,566 | 1,627 | 1,696 | 1,682 | 1,635 |
| Food Equipment | 1,188 | 1,193 | 1,188 | 1,052 | 983 |
| Construction Products | 1,172 | 1,230 | 1,370 | 1,367 | 1,239 |
| Welding | 857 | 838 | 933 | 784 | 700 |
| Total | 15,067 | 15,518 | 15,422 | 16,077 | 15,612 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $264.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 76.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $258.27 | $258.10 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.9% | 20.6% |
| Downside Capture | 50.46 | 44.56 |
| Upside Capture | 36.89 | 45.89 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.0% | 34.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.17 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 2.40 | 1.46 | 1.13 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 1.10 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | 11% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 32% | 30% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 17 | 25 | 61 | 125 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 181% | 126% | 121% | 55% | 62% | 88% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 38 | 63 | 125 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ITW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW | 12.3% | 20.5% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 28.7% | 16.2% | 1.38 | 63.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 34.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 17.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -19.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 50.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.4% | -1.08 | 11.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ITW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW | 4.9% | 21.1% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 17.5% | 0.61 | 77.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 64.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 61.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 20.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ITW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW | 11.8% | 23.8% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 82.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 71.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 20.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 59.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -2.9% | -1.9% | -6.9% |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| 10/24/2025 | -4.5% | -5.4% | -3.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.2% | -1.3% | 2.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.8% | -0.8% | 1.6% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 1.6% | 4.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.2% | 4.1% | 7.8% |
| 7/30/2024 | 0.5% | -3.5% | 0.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.2% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 5.6% | 10.0% | 13.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -7.0% | -11.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -2.9% | -1.9% | -6.9% |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| 10/24/2025 | -4.5% | -5.4% | -3.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.2% | -1.3% | 2.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.8% | -0.8% | 1.6% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 1.6% | 4.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.2% | 4.1% | 7.8% |
| 7/30/2024 | 0.5% | -3.5% | 0.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.1% | -1.6% | -5.7% |
| 2/1/2024 | -2.1% | -2.6% | -0.3% |
| 10/24/2023 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 8.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | -4.4% | -5.2% | -6.7% |
| 5/2/2023 | -4.6% | -7.0% | -11.0% |
| 2/2/2023 | 4.6% | -1.2% | -0.3% |
| 10/25/2022 | 2.5% | 6.4% | 13.9% |
| 8/2/2022 | -1.2% | 1.0% | -5.4% |
| 5/3/2022 | 2.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.6% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.8% | -0.6% | 1.0% |
| 4/30/2021 | -0.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| 2/5/2021 | 2.6% | 2.0% | 8.3% |
| 10/23/2020 | 2.5% | -2.4% | 1.1% |
| 7/31/2020 | -0.4% | 1.2% | 8.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.2% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 5.6% | 10.0% | 13.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -7.0% | -11.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/28/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | 11.1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 11.2 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 23.0% | 23.5% | 24.0% | -2.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 24.0% for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 50.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 100.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 1.0% | ||||||
| 2026 EPS | 11 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 7.2% | Raised | Guidance: 10.4 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.50 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 23.5% | 24.0% | 24.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 23.0% for 2025 |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scanlon, Jennifer F | Direct | Buy | 6042026 | 247.99 | 806 | 199,880 | 409,679 | Form | |
| 2 | Lawler, Mary Katherine | SVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 291.90 | 17,279 | 5,043,740 | 8,401,174 | Form |
| 3 | Beck, Axel | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 290.22 | 4,223 | 1,225,599 | 1,680,084 | Form |
| 4 | Santi, Ernest Scott | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 290.93 | 167,345 | 48,686,119 | 75,283,470 | Form | |
| 5 | Smith, David Byron JR | Trust | Buy | 12122025 | 250.13 | 6,709 | 1,678,122 | 1,678,122 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scanlon, Jennifer F | Direct | Buy | 6042026 | 247.99 | 806 | 199,880 | 409,679 | Form | |
| 2 | Lawler, Mary Katherine | SVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 291.90 | 17,279 | 5,043,740 | 8,401,174 | Form |
| 3 | Beck, Axel | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 290.22 | 4,223 | 1,225,599 | 1,680,084 | Form |
| 4 | Santi, Ernest Scott | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 290.93 | 167,345 | 48,686,119 | 75,283,470 | Form | |
| 5 | Smith, David Byron JR | Trust | Buy | 12122025 | 250.13 | 6,709 | 1,678,122 | 1,678,122 | Form | |
| 6 | Strobel, Pamela B | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 245.25 | 1,521 | 373,025 | 9,625,817 | Form | |
| 7 | Scheuneman, Randall J | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 265.08 | 6,802 | 1,803,074 | 2,734,035 | Form |
| 8 | Smith, David Byron JR | Direct | Buy | 6042025 | 241.16 | 872 | 210,292 | 29,634,705 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components Resources |
| Machine Design |
| Modern Machine Shop |
| Industrial Equipment News (IEN) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.