Deep Fission (FISN)
Market Price (7/30/2026): $9.67 | Market Cap: $618.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Deep Fission (FISN)
Market Price (7/30/2026): $9.67Market Cap: $618.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power. Themes include Mini Nuclear. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Key risksFISN key risks include [1] demonstrating its unproven deep-borehole reactor technology, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power. Themes include Mini Nuclear. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Key risksFISN key risks include [1] demonstrating its unproven deep-borehole reactor technology, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Deep Fission (FISN) stock has lost about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant decline post-Initial Public Offering (IPO) and weak investor demand. Deep Fission (FISN) commenced trading on June 18, 2026, with an IPO price of $16.00 per share. By July 27, 2026, the stock had fallen to $9.65, representing an approximate 39.69% decrease from its IPO price. The public offering completed on June 22, 2026, at $16.00 per share, was priced at the lower end of the projected range of $16.00 to $18.00, suggesting weaker-than-anticipated investor interest and leading to dilution for existing shareholders.
2. Persistent financial losses and pre-revenue status indicating substantial future capital requirements. As a pre-revenue company, Deep Fission reported a net loss of $61.0 million for fiscal year 2025, which significantly increased from a $5.7 million net loss in fiscal year 2024 (restated). The company, which is still in its development stage, does not expect to achieve commercialization for approximately three years, targeting initial commercial licensing as early as 2027. This prolonged path to profitability and commercial revenue implies continued significant cash burn, necessitating substantial additional capital beyond the $40 million raised in the IPO to sustain operations.
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Deep Fission (FISN) stock has lost about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant decline post-Initial Public Offering (IPO) and weak investor demand. Deep Fission (FISN) commenced trading on June 18, 2026, with an IPO price of $16.00 per share. By July 27, 2026, the stock had fallen to $9.65, representing an approximate 39.69% decrease from its IPO price. The public offering completed on June 22, 2026, at $16.00 per share, was priced at the lower end of the projected range of $16.00 to $18.00, suggesting weaker-than-anticipated investor interest and leading to dilution for existing shareholders.
2. Persistent financial losses and pre-revenue status indicating substantial future capital requirements. As a pre-revenue company, Deep Fission reported a net loss of $61.0 million for fiscal year 2025, which significantly increased from a $5.7 million net loss in fiscal year 2024 (restated). The company, which is still in its development stage, does not expect to achieve commercialization for approximately three years, targeting initial commercial licensing as early as 2027. This prolonged path to profitability and commercial revenue implies continued significant cash burn, necessitating substantial additional capital beyond the $40 million raised in the IPO to sustain operations.
3. Material accounting errors and identified weaknesses in internal controls. Deep Fission restated previous financial statements due to identified material accounting errors related to the valuation of Simple Agreement for Future Equity (SAFE Notes) and stock-based compensation expense. Furthermore, as of fiscal Q1 2026 (the quarter ended March 31, 2026), the company identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting, which increased investor concerns regarding financial reporting accuracy and execution risks.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.2% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.2% | -24.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.2% | -24.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 21.0% | -24.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.4% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.5% | -24.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FISN Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -10% | -10% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -2% | 10% | 150% | 127% | -15% | 544% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FISN Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 48% | 56% | 66% | 63% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FISN Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -30% | -35% | -46% | -52% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BWXT, GEV, SMR, LEU, OKLO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FISN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5371 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Deep Fission's stock fell -22.9% during the 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion. Such a loss loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | FISN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5371 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Deep Fission's stock fell -22.9% during the 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion. Such a loss loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Deep Fission (FISN)
Deep Fission, Inc. (FISN) is a nuclear energy technology company focused on developing its innovative "Gravity Reactor." This reactor is a small modular reactor (SMR) that uses established pressurized water reactor (PWR) technology but with a unique twist: it's designed to be emplaced approximately one mile below the Earth's surface in deep boreholes. This subsurface placement leverages natural conditions like hydrostatic pressure and surrounding geology for containment, cooling, and shielding, thereby reducing the reliance on large surface containment structures and other safety infrastructure. The goal is to achieve faster deployment, improved security, enhanced safety, and lower capital and operating costs compared to conventional nuclear plants, while also reducing exposure to environmental hazards.
Each 3x3 Gravity Reactor is designed to produce up to 15 megawatts of electric power, with the potential for multiple reactors to be grouped in clusters at a single site to achieve hundreds or thousands of MWe capacity. Deep Fission's commercialization strategy targets the surging global demand for energy, specifically highlighting "the AI-driven surge." The company is currently in the development stage, participating in the U.S. Department of Energy Reactor Pilot Program, and has already drilled its first data acquisition well. Deep Fission aims to demonstrate its system, obtain DOE authorization, and apply for commercial licensing with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as early as the first half of 2027, anticipating revenue recognition approximately one year after construction begins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Deep Fission:
Imagine NuScale Power, but for nuclear reactors designed to be buried a mile underground.
It's like a utility such as Constellation Energy, but focused on developing and deploying small, modular nuclear reactors deep below the earth's surface to provide power.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gravity Reactor: A small modular reactor (SMR) designed for deep borehole emplacement, leveraging subsurface conditions to produce up to 15 MWe of electric power.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Deep Fission (FISN) is a nuclear energy technology company currently in the development stage. According to the provided description, the company was incorporated in July 2023, and the Gravity Reactor remains in conceptual and early engineering stages. Deep Fission has not yet constructed or operated a commercial reactor or generated revenue.
Therefore, Deep Fission currently does not have any major customers. The company aims for commercialization in the next three years.
Based on the nature of their product—small modular reactors (SMRs) designed to produce 15 megawatts of electric power output (MWe) for standalone installations or clustered sites capable of supplying hundreds to thousands of MWe—their prospective customers would be entities requiring substantial, reliable electricity generation. These would likely include:
- Electric utility companies
- Large industrial enterprises (e.g., data centers, manufacturing facilities)
- Government agencies or military installations
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Liz Muller, Co-Founder & CEO, Board Chair
As Co-Founder and CEO of Deep Fission, Liz Muller leads the development and commercialization of an underground nuclear energy system. She is a serial nuclear entrepreneur with a track record of building organizations, and previously co-founded and served as CEO of Deep Isolation, a nuclear waste disposal company, where she now serves as Board Chair. Muller also co-founded Berkeley Earth, a climate science nonprofit.
William Mark Schmitz, Chief Financial Officer
William Mark Schmitz brings over 40 years of financial leadership experience across various capital-intensive industries to Deep Fission. He has served as CFO for major organizations including Goodyear, Itron, Plug Power, and Alghanim Industries, and has experience scaling companies and leading financial turnarounds. He also held leadership roles across multiple international markets.
Rich Muller, Co-Founder & CTO
Rich Muller is a co-founder and CTO of Deep Fission, and also a co-founder of Deep Isolation. He is a Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a prolific inventor with over 80 issued patents. His research on deeply buried nuclear waste has earned him numerous awards, including the MacArthur “Genius” Prize.
Mike Brasel, Chief Operating Officer
Mike Brasel possesses nearly three decades of experience in the nuclear industry, having held senior roles at NuScale Power where he managed multi-billion-dollar nuclear projects and led supply chain development. His background also includes serving as Plant Manager of the La Crosse Boiling Water Reactor and as a U.S. Navy Nuclear Plant Operator.
Stacy Tarver Patterson, Chief Marketing Officer
Stacy Tarver Patterson leads narrative strategy, market positioning, and go-to-market development for advanced nuclear energy deployment at Deep Fission. She has 19 years of experience in global marketing strategy, digital product growth, and brand transformation for technology and consumer platforms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Deep Fission (FISN)
- Technical and Operational Execution Risk: Deep Fission is in the early conceptual and engineering stages, having not yet constructed or operated a commercial reactor. The company faces significant, unproven technical and operational challenges in demonstrating its core technology, including successfully drilling commercial-scale boreholes, safely deploying a prototype reactor a mile underground, and integrating it into an energy ecosystem within an ambitious timeline.
- Regulatory Approval and Licensing Risk: The commercial viability of Deep Fission's Gravity Reactor is entirely contingent on obtaining authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and commercial licenses from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its novel deep borehole small modular reactor (SMR) design. The company is targeting aggressive timelines for these approvals, with a commercial license application to the NRC in the first half of 2027 and high-volume commercial licensing as early as 2027, which presents a substantial risk given the stringent and often lengthy regulatory processes for nuclear technologies.
- Commercialization and Revenue Generation Risk: As a development-stage company with no commercial reactor operations or generated revenue, Deep Fission faces significant challenges in transitioning from development to commercial deployment. Even if technical and regulatory hurdles are overcome, there there is a risk in achieving high-volume commercial deployment, securing market adoption, and realizing revenue targets, particularly given the anticipated lag between the start of construction and revenue recognition.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Deep Fission (FISN) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, stemming directly from its phased commercialization strategy for the Gravity Reactor:
- Conversion of Pilot Reactors to Commercial Operation: Deep Fission aims to demonstrate the Gravity Reactor and apply for a commercial license with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the first half of 2027, intending to convert the same pilot reactor to commercial operation. This initial commercial operation of pilot wells is expected to be the company's first source of revenue.
- High-Volume Commercial Licensing and Clustered Deployment at Single Sites: As part of its third deployment phase, the company targets seeking high-volume commercial licensing with the NRC as early as 2027 for the deployment of multiple reactors at a single site through clustered boreholes. This strategy allows for larger installations capable of supplying hundreds and potentially thousands of MWe of generation capacity, driving significant revenue growth per site.
- Expansion to Multiple Sites: Following initial single-site deployments, Deep Fission plans to expand its commercial operations to multiple sites, increasing its overall market reach and power generation capacity across different locations.
- Capitalizing on AI-Driven Energy Demand: Deep Fission is strategically positioning its Gravity Reactor to meet the rapidly increasing demand for energy, particularly from AI-driven sectors. The ability to achieve deployment milestones on a timeline sufficient to address this surge in demand is a critical objective for the company, indicating a large potential market for its power generation.
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Inbound Investments
- Deep Fission is currently participating in the U.S. Department of Energy (“DOE”) Reactor Pilot Program, through which it expects to demonstrate its system.
Capital Expenditures
- Deep Fission has commenced initial field development activities at its Kansas Site, including drilling its first data acquisition well up to 6,000 feet deep.
- The company plans to focus the balance of this year and into early 2027 on the delivery of key components for full-system installation, including well casing, its reactor canister, heat exchanger, and LEU fabrication and loading.
- Deep Fission has a long-term lease for approximately 100 acres located within the Great Plains Industrial Park in Parsons, Kansas, for its development activities.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 452 |
| Op Inc LTM | 30 |
| FCF LTM | -61 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 146 |
| CFO LTM | -21 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 238 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -61.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.23 | 0.89 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| Up Beta | 0.33 | 0.76 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| Down Beta | -5.18 | -2.73 | -2.02 | -0.91 | -0.46 | -0.11 |
| Up Capture | 455% | 224% | 109% | 67% | 29% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Down Capture | 307% | 241% | 212% | 89% | 59% | 32% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FISN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISN | -33.3% | 117.9% | -2.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.6% | 16.9% | 0.69 | -24.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 12.8% | 0.86 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 28.1% | 0.68 | 50.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 31.5% | 19.7% | 1.27 | 34.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.9% | 14.0% | 0.82 | -20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.1% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 14.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FISN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISN | -7.8% | 117.9% | -2.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 17.6% | 0.57 | -24.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.1% | 0.55 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 50.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 34.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | -20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.7% | 53.3% | 0.46 | 14.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FISN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISN | -4.0% | 117.9% | -2.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.6% | 20.0% | 0.60 | -24.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 50.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 34.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | -20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.7% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/20/2026 | S-1 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/20/2026 | S-1 |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 30, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components Resources |
| Machine Design |
| Modern Machine Shop |
| Industrial Equipment News (IEN) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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