NuScale Power (SMR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.84 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
NuScale Power (SMR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.84Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -629 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -984% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 766% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 83x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -442%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -442% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% | ||
| Key risksSMR key risks include [1] its lack of commercialized reactors and consistent revenue generation, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 766% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -629 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -984% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 83x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -442%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -442% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% |
| Key risksSMR key risks include [1] its lack of commercialized reactors and consistent revenue generation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SMR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why NuScale Power (SMR) stock moved by -54.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
**1. NuScale Power reported weaker-than-expected financial results for the third quarter of 2025.**
The company announced on November 6, 2025, that its Q3 2025 revenue of $8.2 million fell short of analysts' anticipated $11.1 million. Additionally, NuScale reported a net loss of $1.85 per share, significantly wider than the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.11 per share. This substantial earnings miss and deepening losses contributed to negative investor sentiment.
**2. Stockholders approved a significant increase in authorized Class A common stock, raising dilution concerns.**
On December 16, 2025, NuScale Power's stockholders approved an amendment to increase authorized Class A common stock from 332,000,000 to 662,000,000 shares. This move, intended to provide flexibility for future capital raising, strategic transactions, and equity compensation, was interpreted by the market as a dilution risk, putting downward pressure on the stock price. The company also raised $475.2 million gross proceeds in Q3 2025 through an at-the-market equity raise, indicating a continued reliance on public capital.
**3. Major investor Fluor Corporation continued to monetize its stake in NuScale Power.**
Fluor Corporation, a significant investor, announced an agreement regarding stake monetization on November 6, 2025. Prior to this, on September 19, 2025, a director from Fluor Corp sold 2,372,563 shares at an average price of $43.99, totaling over $104 million. This substantial insider selling, exceeding the $5 million threshold, signaled a reduction in a major investor's commitment and raised concerns about NuScale's future funding and shareholder composition.
**4. Uncertainty persisted regarding binding power purchase agreements and project deployment timelines.**
Despite positive announcements about partnerships with ENTRA1 Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for potential large-scale SMR deployments, the conversion of these initiatives into firm, binding power purchase agreements (PPAs) remained unconfirmed. While the first 12-module plant is targeted for around 2030, delays in PPA negotiations, site selection, or licensing processes were noted as potential risks. This ongoing uncertainty about concrete, revenue-generating contracts likely weighed on investor confidence looking for clearer commercialization pathways.
**5. The competitive landscape in the small modular reactor (SMR) market intensified.**
Despite NuScale's lead in regulatory approvals, increased competition in the SMR industry emerged. In September 2025, Oklo and Sweden's Blykalla formed a partnership, and GE Vernova and Samsung C&T also announced a partnership to accelerate SMR development. In October 2025, BWX Technologies signed agreements with Rolls-Royce SMR. These competitive advancements suggest a more crowded market, potentially impacting NuScale's future market share and contract acquisition capabilities.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SMR Return | � | -1% | 2% | -68% | 445% | -5% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 111% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SMR Win Rate | � | 42% | 42% | 25% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 66% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SMR Max Drawdown | � | -15% | -11% | -80% | -42% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEV, BWXT, OKLO, NNE, CEG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SMR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 636.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -3.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 148 days |
Compare to GGG, GHM, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG
In The Past
NuScale Power's stock fell -86.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/24/2022. A -86.4% loss requires a 636.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SMR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NuScale Power
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 122.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,561 |
| Op Inc LTM | 147 |
| FCF LTM | -43 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -198 |
| CFO LTM | 306 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -197 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -19.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.1 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | 24.7 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | 4.0 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -9.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 44.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 245.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 167.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.5% | -28.7% | -34.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | -11.9% | -19.6% | -24.0% |
| 5/12/2025 | 21.6% | 37.8% | 133.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | 11.5% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | 13.0% | 13.8% | 10.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | 7.9% | 9.2% | -11.9% |
| 5/9/2024 | 7.2% | 3.9% | 48.1% |
| 11/8/2023 | -32.9% | -13.5% | 4.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| # Negative | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.5% | 9.2% | 29.3% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -8.8% | -11.7% |
| Max Positive | 21.6% | 37.8% | 133.8% |
| Max Negative | -32.9% | -28.7% | -34.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 12312020 | 1072022 | S-4 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |