GE Vernova (GEV)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $657.52 | Market Cap: $178.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Heavy Electrical Equipment
GE Vernova (GEV)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $657.52Market Cap: $178.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Heavy Electrical Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.5 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 130x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 105x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Offshore Wind Development, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 89% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% | |
| Key risksGEV key risks include [1] its dependency on the pace of the energy transition and electricity demand from growth drivers like AI, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.5 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Offshore Wind Development, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 130x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 105x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 89% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksGEV key risks include [1] its dependency on the pace of the energy transition and electricity demand from growth drivers like AI, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GEV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
GE Vernova (GEV) experienced significant movements in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 20, 2025, with several key developments contributing to its overall performance. Here are five key points highlighting the reasons for the stock's positive momentum during this period:
**1. Strategic Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns.**
In mid-December 2025, GE Vernova announced an increase in its stock buyback authorization to $10 billion and doubled its dividend. This move signaled strong confidence from the company's management in its future financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders, leading to a positive market reaction.
**2. Positive Analyst Upgrades and Bullish Price Targets.**
During mid-December 2025, several prominent financial firms issued positive ratings and increased price targets for GE Vernova. Evercore ISI resumed coverage with an Outperform rating and an $860 price target, citing sustained growth in power demand. Similarly, Oppenheimer and RBC Capital also upgraded GE Vernova, highlighting potential upside due to pricing, volume improvements, factory throughput, and operational efficiencies.
**3. Fitch Ratings Upgrade Reflecting Operational Strength.**
On December 18, 2025, Fitch Ratings upgraded GE Vernova's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB+' from 'BBB', with a Positive Outlook. This upgrade was attributed to Vernova's effective operational execution, growth in its EBITDA and Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins, and demonstrated improvement in company performance, which is expected to strengthen further due to long-term demand in its energy infrastructure markets.
**4. Accelerated Demand Driven by the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Boom.**
Analysts consistently pointed to the accelerating demand for power stemming from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom as a significant growth driver for GE Vernova. The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing need for power sector products and services, particularly for AI data centers. GE Vernova's electrification backlog is expected to more than triple by the end of 2024 compared to 2022, fueled by this robust demand for grid equipment.
**5. Strong Prior-Year Financial Performance and Upbeat Outlook.**
Heading into 2025, GE Vernova had established a strong financial foundation with positive earnings reports throughout 2024. The company reported turning a profit in Q2 2024, with a net income of $1.3 billion, and subsequently raised its full-year 2024 guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow. This momentum continued with solid Q3 2024 results, including double-digit organic orders growth and substantial cash generation, leading to a reaffirmation of its optimistic 2024 financial guidance. These consistent strong results and positive outlook contributed to investor confidence and set a favorable tone for its stock performance in the latter part of 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEV Return | � | � | � | � | � | 95% | � |
| Peers Return | 34% | 29% | 4% | 17% | 29% | 10% | 202% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEV Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 70% | 48% | 55% | 57% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEV Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -21% | -17% | -7% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ETN, HON, NEE, EMR, PWR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
GEV has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GEV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GE Vernova
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 258.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 125.0 |
| Rev LTM | 26,912 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,290 |
| FCF LTM | 2,870 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,421 |
| CFO LTM | 3,766 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,881 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 125.0 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 23.3 |
| P/E | 32.1 |
| P/CFO | 27.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -1.6% | -2.5% | 1.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 3.1% | 13.8% | 38.9% |
| 1/22/2025 | 2.7% | -14.6% | -13.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.3% | 8.1% | 24.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.5% | -4.6% | 8.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.5% | 3.8% | 10.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| # Negative | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.6% | -13.5% |
| Max Positive | 3.1% | 13.8% | 38.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.5% | -14.6% | -13.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3132024 | S-1 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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