Oklo (OKLO)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $80.82 | Market Cap: $12.2 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Oklo (OKLO)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $80.82Market Cap: $12.2 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -98 Mil | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 244% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% | ||
| Key risksOKLO key risks include [1] significant commercialization delays after the NRC rejected its initial Aurora reactor application, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -98 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 244% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% |
| Key risksOKLO key risks include [1] significant commercialization delays after the NRC rejected its initial Aurora reactor application, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
On August 12, 2025, Oklo (OKLO) stock experienced a significant daily increase of 9.2%, closely approximating the 10.4% movement specified in your request. This surge was driven by several key factors:1. Selection for Department of Energy's Advanced Nuclear Reactor Program. Oklo was named as one of eleven companies selected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for a crucial federal initiative. The program aims to deploy advanced nuclear reactors at national laboratories, with a target of having at least three operational by mid-2026. This announcement provided strong positive sentiment for the company.
2. Reversal from Initial Post-Earnings Decline. The stock's jump marked a sharp turnaround from an earlier drop in aftermarket trading. This initial decline followed the release of Oklo's second-quarter 2025 earnings report, which, despite improved year-over-year losses, initially left investors wanting more clarity on the company's development timeline. The DOE news overshadowed these earlier concerns, leading to the day's gains.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.0% change in OKLO stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -7.3% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 131.17 | 81.31 | -38.01% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140.09 | 150.36 | -7.34% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | -38.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | -0.7% | 29.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.3% change in OKLO stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6252025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.57 | 81.31 | 46.32% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70.32 | 150.36 | -113.83% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 46.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 37.8% |
| Sector (XLU) | 7.1% | 21.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 244.4% change in OKLO stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12242024 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.61 | 81.31 | 244.39% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70.32 | 150.36 | -113.83% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 244.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 39.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 14.3% | 28.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 667.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 31.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 44.0% | 24.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKLO Return | � | � | 1% | 6% | 101% | 286% | 731% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 93% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKLO Win Rate | � | 20% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 65% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKLO Max Drawdown | � | � | -2% | 0% | -47% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SMR, NNE, BWXT, GEV, LEU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -5.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 464 days |
Compare to NRG, TLN, OKLO, AES, TAC
In The Past
Oklo's stock fell -5.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -5.0% loss requires a 5.3% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Oklo:
- The Tesla of nuclear power: Like Tesla sought to disrupt the automotive industry with innovative electric vehicles and a focus on clean energy, Oklo aims to innovate the energy sector with next-generation, advanced nuclear fission plants.
- The SpaceX of nuclear energy: Similar to how SpaceX applies advanced engineering to revolutionize space travel by making it more efficient and cost-effective, Oklo is developing cutting-edge reactor technology to transform nuclear energy generation.
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- Aurora Microreactors: These are advanced fast fission power plants designed to generate clean, reliable electricity and usable heat.
- Clean Power Generation: This service involves providing sustainable electricity and heat to customers through the operation of their proprietary advanced fission reactors.
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Oklo (symbol: OKLO) sells primarily to other companies and organizations, not individuals. As a developer of advanced fission power plants (micro-reactors), its customer base typically includes utilities, industrial facilities, data centers, remote communities, and government entities seeking reliable, carbon-free power.
Its most significant announced potential customer is:
- Artesian Clean Energy LLC: Oklo announced a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) in May 2024 for Artesian Clean Energy LLC to purchase 50 megawatts (MWe) of power from Oklo's Aurora power plants. Artesian Clean Energy LLC is a private entity and does not have a public stock symbol.
While not a direct "customer" in the traditional sense of purchasing power or a reactor for their own use, Oklo also has a significant relationship with the U.S. government through the Department of Energy (DOE) and its facilities like the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Oklo has a Site Use Permit at INL for its first Aurora power plant and has received awards and funding from the DOE to advance its technology, indicating the U.S. government as a key partner and enabler for deployment.
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- Centrus Energy Corp. (NYSE: LEU)
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Jacob DeWitte, Chief Executive Officer
Jacob DeWitte co-founded Oklo in July 2013 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and a board member since its inception. He has experience with various advanced reactor designs, nuclear fuel cycle technology development, and experimental irradiation testing facilities. Prior to Oklo, he worked at GE, Sandia National Labs, Urenco US, and naval reactor research laboratories. At GE, he led core design on the PRISM sodium fast reactor.
R. Craig Bealmear, Chief Financial Officer
Craig Bealmear has served as Oklo's Chief Financial Officer since August 2023. He brings over 30 years of leadership experience in publicly traded energy companies. From April 2021 to December 2022, he was the CFO of Renewable Energy Group, Inc., a producer of advanced biofuels that was acquired by Chevron Corporation in June 2022. Prior to that, he held several positions at BP plc, including Chief Financial Officer – North America Downstream.
Caroline Cochran, Chief Operating Officer
Caroline Cochran co-founded Oklo in July 2013 and has served as its Chief Operating Officer and a board member since inception. She has been a founder in multiple organizations and was recognized as one of the youngest recipients of the University of Oklahoma Regent's Alumni Award. Caroline has worked with energy technologies including natural gas, oil, nuclear, and solar. Before graduate school, she was a program manager at the University of Oklahoma, helping establish a technology commercialization program.
Alexandra Renner, Chief Product Officer
Alex Renner has served as the Chief Product Officer at Oklo Inc. since June 2024. Her prior roles at Oklo include Senior Director of Product and Director of Licensing. Before joining Oklo, Alex worked at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for nearly seven years as a Reactor Engineer, Project Manager, and Reactor Inspector. She traveled to nuclear facilities to ensure regulatory compliance and public safety, and participated in the startup of Watts Bar Unit 2 and the construction of VC Summer Units 3 & 4.
Patrick Schweiger, Chief Technology Officer
Patrick Schweiger has served as Oklo's Chief Technology Officer since 2025. He has over 40 years of leadership experience in the energy sector, across both fission and fusion industries. Prior to Oklo, he was head of Hedron Engineering and Consulting, where he led teams on the MIT high-capacity thermal battery initiative and supported small modular reactor projects. He also served as Chief Engineer at the fusion startup Commonwealth Fusion Systems and as Senior Vice President of Engineering and overall Design Authority at advanced reactor developer TerraPower.
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Key Risks to Oklo Inc. (OKLO)
- Regulatory Delays and Commercialization Challenges: Oklo operates in the highly regulated nuclear industry, facing significant hurdles in obtaining necessary approvals for its advanced reactor technology. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rejected Oklo's initial application for a combined license for its Aurora reactor in 2022, which has pushed back anticipated commercialization timelines to between 2027 and 2029. Any further setbacks or prolonged review processes by regulatory bodies could lead to increased development costs, extended periods without revenue generation, and a potential erosion of investor confidence. Additionally, the transition from prototype development to full-scale production and navigating complex fuel strategies present substantial challenges.
- Financial Risks (Pre-revenue Status, Capital Intensity, and Dilution): As a pre-revenue company, Oklo requires substantial capital to fund its research, development, and regulatory efforts, as well as the future construction of its power plants. The company's business model involves significant cash burn without commercial revenues for several years, creating ongoing pressure to raise additional capital. This often occurs through at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings, which can lead to significant dilution for existing shareholders, impacting the value of their holdings.
- Execution Risk and Supply Chain Challenges: Beyond regulatory and financial hurdles, Oklo faces considerable execution risks associated with the actual construction, deployment, and operation of its powerhouses. This includes the inherent complexities of manufacturing nuclear technology at scale, potential cost overruns during the construction phase, and challenges in securing critical components and fuel. Specifically, risks related to accessing high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) and recycled fuels, as well as broader supply chain disruptions, could significantly impact the company's ability to deliver its projects on time and within budget.
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Accelerated commercialization and regulatory lead of alternative small modular reactor (SMR) designs.
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Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) operates primarily in two addressable markets: advanced microreactors/small modular reactors (SMRs) for energy generation and nuclear fuel recycling, which includes radioisotope production.
Advanced Microreactors/Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) for Energy Generation
Oklo's flagship product is its Aurora nuclear reactor powerhouse, an advanced microreactor designed to generate 15-50 MWe (and potentially scale up to 100 MWe) of electrical power. The company's business model centers on selling power to customers as an "Energy-as-a-Service" offering, targeting off-grid applications such as data centers, remote communities, industrial sites, and military bases.
- The global small modular reactor market was valued at approximately $5.81 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $8.37 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.98% from 2025 to 2032.
- More broadly, the global nuclear reactor market was estimated at $28.02 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about $50.37 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.04% from 2025 to 2034. The advanced reactor segment is anticipated to be the fastest-growing within this market.
- For the U.S. nuclear power market, the valuation was $13.3 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to $19.6 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.1% during 2025–2032.
- The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that advanced nuclear technology could provide an additional 200 GW of clean, firm power capacity by 2050 in the U.S. to meet decarbonization goals.
Nuclear Fuel Recycling and Radioisotope Production
Oklo also plans to offer nuclear fuel recycling services and produce radioisotopes using its fast reactor technology. These radioisotopes are vital for various applications, including medical diagnostic imaging, cancer treatment, industrial uses, and energy.
- The company's fuel recycling capabilities could unlock a market opportunity in the U.S. estimated to be "hundreds of billions of dollars," with the potential to generate over 100 years' worth of power from existing used fuel.
- The global radioisotope market is projected to reach $55.7 billion by 2026, with demand expected to increase significantly over the following decade.
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HTMLExpected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Oklo (OKLO)
Over the next 2-3 years, Oklo (OKLO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives, focusing on the commercial deployment of its advanced nuclear technology and diversification into related markets.
- Commercial Deployment of the Aurora Powerhouse: The most significant driver of initial revenue is expected to be the successful commercial operation of Oklo's first advanced fission plant, the Aurora powerhouse, at Idaho National Laboratory. Pre-construction activities for this plant are expected to begin in Q3 2025, with commercial operations targeted between late 2027 and early 2028. This facility represents Oklo's direct entry into the power generation market.
- Expansion into Radioisotope Production: Oklo plans to generate revenue through its entry into the radioisotope market, following its acquisition of Atomic Alchemy. Initial demonstration revenue from this segment is expected as early as 2026, with aims for full-scale VIPR isotope production by 2028. This diversification will provide an additional revenue stream beyond traditional power generation.
- Securing Power Purchase Agreements and Defense Contracts: Future revenue growth is also expected from securing power purchase agreements (PPAs) for its small modular reactors (SMRs) and engaging in defense-related contracts. Oklo is targeting a substantial 14 GW order pipeline, primarily through SMR PPAs. Furthermore, its designation as a qualified vendor in the Department of Defense's Advanced Nuclear Power Initiative (ANPI) program could lead to expedited, milestone-based power contracts.
- Capitalizing on Demand from AI Data Centers: The increasing global demand for clean, reliable, and high-density power for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is identified as a crucial market tailwind for Oklo. This growing need for energy to power data centers is expected to drive demand for Oklo's advanced nuclear solutions, leading to future sales and power purchase agreements.
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Share Issuance
- Oklo went public on May 9, 2024, through a reverse merger with AltC Acquisition Corp., which resulted in over $306 million in proceeds to the combined entity and the issuance of approximately 77,832,673 shares to Oklo stockholders.
- In June 2025, Oklo priced a public offering of 6,666,667 shares of Class A common stock at $60.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately $400 million, with net proceeds allocated for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures, and potential future investments.
- Oklo filed a mixed shelf offering in June 2025, enabling the company to raise up to $1 billion through various securities, and another in October 2025 for up to $3.5 billion in mixed securities, providing future financial flexibility.
Inbound Investments
- The reverse merger with AltC Acquisition Corp., completed in May 2024, provided over $306 million in gross proceeds to Oklo. This transaction was initially expected to deliver up to $500 million in gross capital.
- In October 2025, Oklo announced a joint agreement with European developer newcleo, which plans to invest up to $2 billion via an affiliated investment vehicle to develop advanced fuel fabrication and manufacturing infrastructure in the U.S.
Outbound Investments
- Oklo successfully completed the strategic acquisition of Atomic Alchemy for nearly $25 million in February 2025, which resulted in less than 1% dilution to existing investors.
Capital Expenditures
- Proceeds from the June 2025 public offering, approximately $400 million, are intended to be used in part for capital expenditures.
- Oklo anticipates a cash burn of $65 million to $80 million in fiscal year 2025, which includes capital expenditures for equipment related to its development activities.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on the development and deployment of Oklo's powerhouses, such as the Aurora powerhouse, targeting commercial operations by late 2027 or early 2028, and the establishment of fuel fabrication and recycling facilities, including a large-scale facility in Tennessee.
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| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.1% | 0.1% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.8% |
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Oklo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.5 |
| Rev LTM | 259 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19 |
| FCF LTM | 61 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 25 |
| CFO LTM | 69 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 28 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $81.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/08/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -53.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $108.66 | $72.93 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -25.2% | 11.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 108.6% | 123.0% |
| Downside Capture | 754.19 | 318.99 |
| Upside Capture | 394.92 | 402.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.7% | 40.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.04 | 3.13 | 3.40 | 2.95 | 2.43 | 1.73 |
| Up Beta | -1.81 | -0.18 | -1.67 | 0.84 | 1.98 | 1.57 |
| Down Beta | 6.12 | -0.47 | 0.71 | 1.68 | 2.01 | 1.89 |
| Up Capture | 181% | 554% | 979% | 860% | 2411% | 1478% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 34 | 63 | 127 | 354 |
| Down Capture | 598% | 470% | 432% | 294% | 156% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 29 | 61 | 120 | 320 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullEarnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/24/2025 | -6.4% | -30.0% | -24.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -24.6% | 5.7% | -22.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | 2.6% | -6.7% | -16.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | |
| Median Negative | -15.5% | -18.4% | -22.6% |
| Max Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -30.0% | -24.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312022 | 9272023 | S-4 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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