Oklo (OKLO)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $83.69 | Market Cap: $12.6 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Oklo (OKLO)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $83.69Market Cap: $12.6 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -98 Mil | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 287% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% | ||
| Key risksOKLO key risks include [1] significant commercialization delays after the NRC rejected its initial Aurora reactor application, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -98 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 287% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% |
| Key risksOKLO key risks include [1] significant commercialization delays after the NRC rejected its initial Aurora reactor application, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OKLO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Regulatory Progress on Reactor Design: In September 2025, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted Oklo's Principal Design Criteria (PDC) topical report for an expedited review, a crucial step that streamlines future reactor licensing by establishing a unified regulatory framework for safety, reliability, and performance.
2. Major Investment in Fuel Infrastructure: Oklo announced a strategic partnership in October 2025 with newcleo, a European advanced nuclear reactor developer, which plans to invest up to $2 billion in developing advanced fuel fabrication and manufacturing infrastructure in the United States, aiming to foster a robust domestic fuel ecosystem.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKLO Return | � | � | 1% | 6% | 101% | 266% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 81% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKLO Win Rate | � | 20% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 65% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKLO Max Drawdown | � | � | -2% | 0% | -47% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SMR, NNE, BWXT, GEV, LEU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -5.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 464 days |
Compare to NRG, TLN, OKLO, AES, TAC
In The Past
Oklo's stock fell -5.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -5.0% loss requires a 5.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Oklo Earnings Notes | |||
| Oklo Stock (-15%): AI Data Center Delays Trigger Narrative Collapse | Notification | ||
| What Can Trigger Oklo Stock's Slide? | |||
| Oklo Stock on the Edge: 3 Threats You Need to Know | |||
| Oklo Stock Can Sink, Here Is How | |||
| Is 28.4% Fall In Oklo (OKLO) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Why Oklo Stock Moved: OKLO Stock Has Gained 745% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | |||
| OKLO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Oklo (OKLO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Oklo (OKLO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Will Oklo Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Oklo Stock | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| Oklo Stock: The Zero-Revenue Company Worth $20 Billion | October 31st, 2025 | ||
| Is Oklo Stock Overvalued After A 7x Surge? | October 13th, 2025 | ||
| Oklo Stock To Increase 50% More? | September 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OKLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.0% | 6.0% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.0% | 6.0% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oklo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.7 |
| Rev LTM | 259 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19 |
| FCF LTM | 61 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 25 |
| CFO LTM | 69 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 28 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| P/EBIT | 17.4 |
| P/E | 18.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 74.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 449.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 62.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 366.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/24/2025 | -6.4% | -30.0% | -24.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -24.6% | 5.7% | -22.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | 2.6% | -6.7% | -16.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | |
| Median Negative | -15.5% | -18.4% | -22.6% |
| Max Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -30.0% | -24.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312022 | 9272023 | S-4 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |