Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -74 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 380%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 122%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
2 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -74 Mil
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 380%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 122%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OKLO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Oklo's stock moved by 31.2% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Announcement of a $1.68 Billion Nuclear Fuel Recycling Facility: In September 2025, Oklo announced plans to develop and operate a $1.68 billion facility in Tennessee for recycling used nuclear fuel into fuel for fast reactors. This ambitious project, coupled with the completion of a licensing project with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, drove a significant surge in the company's share price, including a 29.55% increase between September 9 and September 16.

2. Expanded Partnerships and Pilot Programs with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): Oklo's stock experienced a substantial boost from its involvement in U.S. Department of Energy initiatives. In September and October 2025, the company was selected for the DOE's Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Projects and commenced construction on its first Aurora power plant at Idaho National Laboratory under a DOE reactor pilot program. These developments significantly contributed to the stock's 51.6% jump in September and a 500% year-to-date increase by early October.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OKLO Return--1%6%101%333%832%
Peers Return-11%10%20%16%-13%9%29%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OKLO Win Rate-20%67%67%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate40%47%50%42%37%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OKLO Max Drawdown---2%0%-47%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-11%-12%-29%-22%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FE, ES, HE, GNE, IMSR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOKLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-5.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven306 days464 days

Compare to FE, ES, HE, GNE, IMSR


In The Past

Oklo's stock fell -5.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -5.0% loss requires a 5.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Oklo (OKLO)

Better Bets than Oklo (OKLO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OKLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Oklo

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OKLOFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameOklo FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
Mkt Price96.5945.2365.9711.1714.409.6029.81
Mkt Cap13.526.124.51.90.4-13.5
Rev LTM014,46913,1493,08048301,782
Op Inc LTM-742,7442,9232221-15111
FCF LTM-53-1,225-52412435-11-32
FCF 3Y Avg--1,411-1,78911356--677
CFO LTM-523,6083,84046343-10253
CFO 3Y Avg-2,5632,57248864-1,525

Growth & Margins

OKLOFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameOklo FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
Rev Chg LTM-7.6%13.1%3.3%13.1%-10.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.6%4.1%-3.9%17.4%-5.4%
Rev Chg Q-11.2%5.1%-5.1%23.6%-8.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.0%1.2%-1.4%5.8%-2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-19.0%22.2%7.2%0.2%-12,071.6%7.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-17.2%21.4%-14.7%5.0%-11.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.3%6.6%-1.1%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.9%29.2%15.0%9.0%-8,232.4%15.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-18.6%20.6%15.3%14.9%-16.9%
FCF/Rev LTM--8.5%-4.0%4.0%7.2%-8,894.8%-4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--10.5%-14.9%3.5%13.2%--3.5%

Valuation

OKLOFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameOklo FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
Mkt Cap13.526.124.51.90.4-13.5
P/S-1.82.00.60.8-1.3
P/EBIT-106.69.09.87.239.7-9.0
P/E-143.319.919.7111.180.6-19.9
P/CFO-150.77.36.94.19.0-6.9
Total Yield-0.7%8.8%9.1%1.4%1.2%-1.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.8%4.1%0.5%0.0%-0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--6.3%-7.9%7.7%13.9%-0.7%
D/E0.01.01.11.60.0-1.0
Net D/E-0.11.01.11.3-0.3-1.0

Returns

OKLOFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameOklo FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
1M Rtn-23.7%-1.8%-11.3%-3.5%-2.7%-37.9%-7.4%
3M Rtn33.7%5.2%5.4%-10.1%-2.8%-5.2%
6M Rtn96.8%12.9%3.2%9.5%-33.4%-9.5%
12M Rtn379.8%13.8%12.9%9.7%-1.7%-12.9%
3Y Rtn877.6%23.5%-10.3%-71.8%52.0%-23.5%
1M Excs Rtn-23.7%-1.7%-11.3%-3.4%-2.7%-37.8%-7.3%
3M Excs Rtn33.4%-0.3%-0.1%-15.0%-9.2%--0.3%
6M Excs Rtn82.0%-1.8%-11.5%-5.2%-48.1%--5.2%
12M Excs Rtn296.8%-2.8%-6.2%-6.0%-17.4%--6.0%
3Y Excs Rtn807.8%-43.4%-80.9%-144.2%-17.2%--43.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,616,132
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202529.1%
Average Daily Volume13,948,054
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.33
Basic Shares Quantity140,085,498
Short % of Basic Shares13.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024324202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
123120229272023S-4 12/31/2022