Boot Barn (BOOT)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $149.06 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Boot Barn (BOOT)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $149.06Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.8% | Key risksBOOT key risks include [1] the waning popularity of western-themed fashion trends and [2] tariff vulnerability due to its significant inventory sourcing from China and Mexico. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.8% |
| Key risksBOOT key risks include [1] the waning popularity of western-themed fashion trends and [2] tariff vulnerability due to its significant inventory sourcing from China and Mexico. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Boot Barn (BOOT) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2027 Guidance Undermined Positive Q1 Results.
Boot Barn's stock movement since late April 2026 was notably impacted by its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report on July 29, 2026. While the company exceeded fiscal Q1 2027 expectations with net sales of $593.5 million (up 17.7% year-over-year) and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.91, its guidance for fiscal Q2 2027 (ending September 2026) fell below analyst consensus. Boot Barn projected Q2 sales of $572 million to $582 million, compared to a consensus estimate of $593.9 million, and anticipated earnings per diluted share of $1.55 to $1.65, below the $1.69 consensus. This cautious outlook suggested a potential near-term slowdown, dampening investor enthusiasm despite the Q1 beat.
2. Decelerating Sales Momentum in July 2026 Raised Concerns.
A significant factor contributing to the stock's decline was the reported deceleration in comparable sales growth as fiscal Q1 2027 progressed into July. Boot Barn indicated that consolidated comparable sales growth sharply slowed from a 5.4% gain in June to approximately flat in July, with retail store comparable sales specifically turning negative at -1.2% during July. This indicated a weakening trend in current period performance, causing investors to re-evaluate future growth prospects.
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Boot Barn (BOOT) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2027 Guidance Undermined Positive Q1 Results.
Boot Barn's stock movement since late April 2026 was notably impacted by its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report on July 29, 2026. While the company exceeded fiscal Q1 2027 expectations with net sales of $593.5 million (up 17.7% year-over-year) and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.91, its guidance for fiscal Q2 2027 (ending September 2026) fell below analyst consensus. Boot Barn projected Q2 sales of $572 million to $582 million, compared to a consensus estimate of $593.9 million, and anticipated earnings per diluted share of $1.55 to $1.65, below the $1.69 consensus. This cautious outlook suggested a potential near-term slowdown, dampening investor enthusiasm despite the Q1 beat.
2. Decelerating Sales Momentum in July 2026 Raised Concerns.
A significant factor contributing to the stock's decline was the reported deceleration in comparable sales growth as fiscal Q1 2027 progressed into July. Boot Barn indicated that consolidated comparable sales growth sharply slowed from a 5.4% gain in June to approximately flat in July, with retail store comparable sales specifically turning negative at -1.2% during July. This indicated a weakening trend in current period performance, causing investors to re-evaluate future growth prospects.
3. Fiscal Q1 2027 Earnings Per Share Benefited Significantly from One-Time Tariff Refunds.
The robust fiscal Q1 2027 diluted earnings per share of $2.29 included a substantial, non-recurring benefit of $0.38 per share from $14.7 million in tariff refunds recognized during the quarter. Management clarified that these tariff refunds are expected to diminish significantly, with only $2.4 million projected for fiscal Q2 2027 and $0.7 million for fiscal Q3 2027, before ceasing in fiscal Q4 2027. The temporary nature of this earnings boost led to investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of the reported profit levels.
4. Analyst Price Targets Were Reduced Following the Q1 Fiscal 2027 Report.
In response to the fiscal Q1 2027 results and the cautious forward guidance, several research firms lowered their price targets for Boot Barn. For instance, TD Cowen reduced its price objective from $225.00 to $190.00 on July 30, 2026, while maintaining a "buy" rating. Similarly, Citigroup adjusted its price target from $210.00 to $205.00 on July 16, 2026. These adjustments reflected a more conservative outlook on the company's future stock performance by market analysts.
5. Valuation Concerns Persisted Amidst Potential Margin Pressures.
Despite a strong fiscal 2026 performance with 17.9% net sales growth and 25% EPS growth, concerns about Boot Barn's valuation became more prominent after the recent earnings report. Analysts highlighted the potential for declining gross margins in fiscal 2027 and 2028, with some bear arguments suggesting a contraction of 20 basis points in fiscal 2027. The reliance on tariff refunds for Q1 margin expansion, rather than underlying product mix, further fueled concerns that the stock's valuation might be stretched relative to its discounted cash flow estimates.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.1% change in BOOT stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 171.45 | 148.99 | -13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,169 | 2,343 | 8.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.9 | 18.6 | -21.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BOOT | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.5% change in BOOT stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.48 | 148.99 | -16.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,071 | 2,343 | 13.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 18.6 | -28.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 30 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BOOT | -16.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 32.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.0% | 30.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.3% change in BOOT stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 171.90 | 148.99 | -13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,992 | 2,343 | 17.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.9 | 18.6 | -30.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 30 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BOOT | -13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 35.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.5% | 33.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.7% change in BOOT stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.90 | 148.99 | 58.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,658 | 2,343 | 41.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 10.4% | 0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.4 | 18.6 | 13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BOOT | 58.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 45.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 36.7% | 46.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BOOT Return | 184% | -49% | 23% | 98% | 16% | -13% | 256% |
| Peers Return | 49% | -29% | 23% | 15% | -3% | 2% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BOOT Win Rate | 92% | 25% | 42% | 83% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 37% | 53% | 50% | 53% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BOOT Max Drawdown | -19% | -58% | -33% | -26% | -49% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -48% | -42% | -28% | -39% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GAP, GCO, ZUMZ, SHOE, TJX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BOOT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 593 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Boot Barn's stock fell -33.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BOOT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 593 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -78.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 354.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 918 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -68.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 215.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 706 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Boot Barn's stock fell -33.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Boot Barn (BOOT)
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) is a prominent lifestyle retail chain specializing in western and work-related merchandise. The company operates a significant network of specialty retail stores across 36 states in the U.S., complemented by robust e-commerce platforms, including bootbarn.com, sheplers.com, and countryoutfitter.com.
Boot Barn's extensive product offering encompasses a wide range of footwear, apparel, and accessories designed for men, women, and children. Key categories include an array of boots, shirts, jackets, hats, belts, handbags, and western-style jewelry. Additionally, the company caters to the workwear segment with rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim, and specialized flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing. The primary customers are individuals seeking authentic western wear and durable work attire, serving both recreational and professional needs across various demographics.
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Cabela's or Bass Pro Shops, but for the western and workwear lifestyle.
A Tractor Supply Co. that specializes in western and work-related apparel and footwear.
Dick's Sporting Goods, but for western and work-related apparel and footwear.AI Analysis | Feedback
- Western and Work Footwear: A wide selection of boots and rugged footwear catering to western lifestyles and various work requirements.
- Western and Work Apparel: Clothing items including shirts, jackets, hats, overalls, and denim, along with flame-resistant and high-visibility options.
- Western Accessories: Fashion and utility items such as belts, belt buckles, handbags, and western-style jewelry.
- Gifts and Home Merchandise: A curated assortment of gift items and merchandise for home decor.
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Boot Barn (symbol: BOOT) sells primarily to individuals through its retail stores and e-commerce websites. Its major customer categories include:
- Western Lifestyle Enthusiasts: Individuals who embrace western culture, including cowboys, cowgirls, rodeo participants, country music fans, and general consumers seeking western-style apparel, footwear, and accessories such as boots, hats, belts, and western-style jewelry.
- Tradespeople and Workers: Individuals who require durable, functional, and often safety-compliant workwear and footwear, including rugged boots, outerwear, overalls, denim, and flame-resistant or high-visibility clothing for various occupations.
- General Consumers Seeking Durable Casual Wear & Gifts: A broader audience looking for high-quality, durable casual apparel, outdoor-oriented clothing, and home goods or gifts with a rustic or western-inspired aesthetic.
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John Hazen Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Hazen has served as Chief Executive Officer of Boot Barn since May 2025, after serving as Interim Chief Executive Officer from November 2024. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was the Chief Digital Officer from 2018. Before joining Boot Barn, Mr. Hazen was the Senior Vice President of Commerce and Subscriptions at Ring from 2017 to 2018. From 2014 to 2017, he was the Senior Vice President of Direct To Consumer at True Religion, where he oversaw both brick-and-mortar and digital channels. Mr. Hazen has over 20 years of experience in the apparel and footwear industry, including roles at companies such as Kellwood, Nike, and Fox Racing.
Jim Watkins Chief Financial Officer and Secretary
Mr. Watkins has been the Chief Financial Officer and Secretary of Boot Barn since 2021. He has held various roles within the company since 2014, including Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Before his tenure at Boot Barn, Mr. Watkins served as the Vice President, Corporate Controller and Principal Accounting Officer of Mindspeed Technologies, a publicly traded semiconductor company. He also worked as an auditor at Ernst & Young for 12 years and is a Certified Public Accountant in California.
Laurie Grijalva Chief Merchandising Officer
Ms. Grijalva has served as Boot Barn's Chief Merchandising Officer since July 2014. She joined the company in 1993 as a Senior Merchant and has since held various positions, including Vice President of Buying and Merchandising from 2004 to 2014. Her prior experience includes employment with LeRoy Knitted Sportswear from 1981 to 1988 and Los Angeles-based Grunwald Marx Apparel from 1990 to 1993, where she focused on line building and exclusive brand production.
Michael A. Love Chief Retail Officer
Mr. Love has been with Boot Barn since 2014 and has served as Chief Retail Officer since 2022. His previous roles at Boot Barn include Senior Vice President of Stores (2018-2022), Senior Vice President of Marketing and Merchandise Planning (2017-2018), and Vice President of Merchandise Planning (2014-2017). Prior to Boot Barn, Mr. Love was Vice President of Merchandise Planning and Allocation at Claire's Stores, Inc. from 2010 to 2014, and Vice President Divisional Planning Manager for Kohl's Corporation from 2008 to 2010. He also held various merchandising and planning roles at Federated Department Stores, May Department Stores Company, Inc., and Macy's Inc.
Jonathon Kosoff Chief Digital Officer
Mr. Kosoff has served as Boot Barn's Chief Digital Officer since January 2025, bringing over 25 years of experience in leading digital growth for consumer brands. Before joining Boot Barn, he was the Chief Digital Officer for Tillys, Inc. from 2020 to January 2025. From January 2018 to February 2020, Mr. Kosoff was the Vice President of E-commerce and Performance Marketing at Taco Bell, a subsidiary of Yum! Brands, Inc. He also oversaw the digital business for Hot Topic and Torrid from November 2012 to December 2017, most recently as Senior Vice President of E-commerce and Customer Relationship Management at Hot Topic, Inc.
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The most significant risk is its **dependence on a niche market and potential shifts in consumer preferences**. As a specialty retailer of western and work-related footwear and apparel, Boot Barn's sales are highly susceptible to the ebb and flow of fashion trends and the sustained interest in western culture. While "cowboycore" and pop culture influences have recently boosted the western trend, this market segment can be cyclical, and a wane in popularity or a decline in interest in country music could reduce its core customer base and impact sales growth.
Secondly, Boot Barn is exposed to **macroeconomic headwinds and cyclical consumer spending patterns**. As a retailer, its financial results are sensitive to broader economic conditions, consumer confidence, and discretionary spending. Inflation, economic downturns, or changes in local economic conditions can lead to decreased consumer spending, directly impacting Boot Barn's sales and overall profitability.
Finally, the company faces **risks associated with its aggressive store expansion strategy**. Boot Barn has ambitious plans to significantly increase its physical footprint, aiming for approximately 900 stores in the long term. Such rapid expansion carries the risk that new locations may underperform, fail to achieve expected sales, or even cannibalize sales from existing stores. This could lead to increased operating costs and pressure on store productivity if demand in new or less proven markets does not keep pace with the expansion, potentially diluting returns and negatively affecting the business and stock price.
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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (symbol: BOOT) operates within addressable markets primarily focused on western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories in the United States.
According to statements from Boot Barn's leadership, the company's total addressable market (TAM) in the U.S. is estimated to be approximately $58 billion. This expanded estimate reflects market growth across all categories.
Specifically, Boot Barn identifies its core western and work categories as having a combined total addressable market of $25 billion. Additionally, the company sees an opportunity of $15 billion from new country lifestyle categories.
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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Aggressive New Store Expansion: Boot Barn has a strategic plan for significant physical store expansion. The company plans to open 65 to 70 new stores in fiscal year 2026 and approximately 20 more in early fiscal year 2027, with a long-term goal of reaching 1,200 stores. This expansion is expected to extend its national footprint and increase brand awareness.
- Consistent Same-Store Sales Growth, Driven by E-commerce Acceleration: The company has demonstrated healthy demand at existing locations, with consolidated same-store sales increasing 5.7% in Q3 FY2026. E-commerce performance is a notable growth engine, with same-store sales surging 19.6% in the same quarter, and management has raised its full-year outlook for overall same-store sales growth.
- Increased Penetration and Sales of Exclusive Brands: Boot Barn views its exclusive brand portfolio as a primary competitive advantage. These brands not only differentiate the company from competitors but also contribute to higher merchandise margins. The share of exclusive brands in total revenue is expected to grow, further enhancing profitability and sales.
- Broad-Based Strength Across Merchandise Categories and Geographies: The company has reported consistent growth across various regions and merchandise categories. Standout performances in men's and women's western boots (achieving high single-digit growth), mid-teens growth in the apparel segment (particularly denim), and positive momentum in work boots indicate robust and widespread consumer demand for its core offerings.
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Share Repurchases
- Boot Barn's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $200 million on May 14, 2025.
- The company repurchased approximately $37.5 million of common stock during the thirty-nine weeks ended December 27, 2025, under this authorized program.
- For fiscal year 2026, Boot Barn plans to execute a quarter of the total authorization, with consistent spending each quarter.
Capital Expenditures
- Boot Barn anticipates capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be between $125.0 million and $130.0 million, net of estimated landlord tenant allowances ranging from $39.4 million to $45.0 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the expansion of its retail footprint, with plans to open 70 new stores in fiscal year 2026.
- New stores are projected to generate approximately $3.2 million in annual sales and achieve a payback period for their initial investment in less than two years.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is 27.6% Fall In Boot Barn (BOOT) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 04/03/2026 | |
| Boot Barn Stock Slides 12% With A 7-Day Losing Spree | 03/17/2026 | |
| How Low Can BOOT Really Go In A Market Crash? | 03/17/2026 | |
| Boot Barn Stock In Shambles: Down 15% With 7-Day Losing Streak | 03/17/2026 | |
| Is 14.6% Fall In Boot Barn (BOOT) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 03/10/2026 | |
| Boot Barn Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Boot Barn Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Boot Barn vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Boot Barn a Better Buy Than Ross Stores? | 05/23/2026 | |
| Boot Barn Stock To $102? | 05/13/2026 | |
| Boot Barn Stock To $95? | 04/03/2026 | |
| The Bear Case: How BOOT Behaves During Market Shocks | 03/17/2026 | |
| Boot Barn Stock In Shambles: Down -15% With 7-Day Losing Streak | 03/17/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,396 |
| Op Inc LTM | 208 |
| FCF LTM | 101 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 60 |
| CFO LTM | 229 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 165 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 21.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.3 |
| P/EBIT | 13.6 |
| P/E | 19.4 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $148.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/30/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $162.31 | $174.67 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -8.2% | -14.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.6% | 44.3% |
| Downside Capture | 129.86 | 167.21 |
| Upside Capture | 46.40 | 114.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.5% | 35.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.92 | 0.34 | 0.67 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 1.41 |
| Up Beta | -0.09 | -0.29 | -0.06 | 0.96 | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| Down Beta | 1.08 | 1.26 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 1.09 |
| Up Capture | 39% | -25% | 43% | 97% | 123% | 332% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 28 | 58 | 115 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 186% | 58% | 127% | 141% | 137% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 26 | 35 | 68 | 137 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BOOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOOT | -15.8% | 44.2% | -0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.6% | 19.5% | 0.11 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 35.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -20.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 25.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 12.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BOOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOOT | 12.3% | 50.0% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.7% | 24.1% | 0.20 | 54.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 52.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 10.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 22.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BOOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOOT | 31.9% | 56.9% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 50.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 47.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 19.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 13.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | 2.3% | ||
| 5/14/2026 | -1.7% | 5.6% | 13.3% |
| 2/4/2026 | 2.9% | 3.5% | -2.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.5% | -3.6% | 0.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.6% | -1.9% | 3.4% |
| 5/14/2025 | 16.7% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -7.8% | -19.0% | -34.2% |
| 10/28/2024 | -19.7% | -20.2% | -13.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 19 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 7.6% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -10.4% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 17.5% | 22.9% | 48.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -20.2% | -34.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | 2.3% | ||
| 5/14/2026 | -1.7% | 5.6% | 13.3% |
| 2/4/2026 | 2.9% | 3.5% | -2.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.5% | -3.6% | 0.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.6% | -1.9% | 3.4% |
| 5/14/2025 | 16.7% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -7.8% | -19.0% | -34.2% |
| 10/28/2024 | -19.7% | -20.2% | -13.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | 13.8% | 14.8% | 17.1% |
| 5/14/2024 | 2.8% | 6.1% | 21.7% |
| 1/31/2024 | 10.3% | 17.3% | 28.4% |
| 11/2/2023 | 8.6% | 3.7% | 13.3% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| 5/17/2023 | -10.7% | -12.0% | 3.0% |
| 1/25/2023 | 17.5% | 15.8% | 1.4% |
| 10/26/2022 | -0.8% | -12.6% | 8.0% |
| 7/27/2022 | -9.5% | -10.4% | 4.0% |
| 5/10/2022 | -1.3% | 7.1% | -0.7% |
| 1/27/2022 | -9.7% | -9.4% | -8.3% |
| 10/27/2021 | 2.2% | 13.0% | 22.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| 5/12/2021 | 9.5% | 7.6% | 12.3% |
| 1/25/2021 | -4.0% | -3.8% | 9.5% |
| 10/28/2020 | 3.4% | 10.5% | 30.3% |
| 8/4/2020 | 10.3% | 22.9% | 48.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 19 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 7.6% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -10.4% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 17.5% | 22.9% | 48.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -20.2% | -34.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/22/2020 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/30/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Revenue | 572.00 Mil | 577.00 Mil | 582.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2027 EPS | 1.55 | 1.6 | 1.65 | ||||
| 2027 Stores to open | 70 | ||||||
| 2027 Revenue | 2.58 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 2.62 Bil | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.60 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Revenue Growth | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Consolidated Same Store Sales Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Gross Profit | 993.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | 1.02 Bil | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 982.50 Mil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Net Income | 267.90 Mil | 274.45 Mil | 281.00 Mil | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 257.80 Mil for 2027 | |
| 2027 EPS | 8.8 | 9.02 | 9.23 | 7.0% | Raised | Guidance: 8.43 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | 125.00 Mil | 127.50 Mil | 130.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 5/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Total Sales | 574.00 Mil | 579.00 Mil | 584.00 Mil | 9.2% | Higher New | Actual: 530.00 Mil for Q4 2026 | |
| 2027 Total Sales | 2.58 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 2.62 Bil | 15.8% | Higher New | Actual: 2.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Consolidated Same Store Sales Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -3.8% | Lower New | Actual: 6.75% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Gross Profit | 971.00 Mil | 982.50 Mil | 994.00 Mil | ||||
| 2027 Net Income | 251.10 Mil | 257.80 Mil | 264.50 Mil | 14.9% | Higher New | Actual: 224.30 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 EPS | 8.21 | 8.43 | 8.64 | 15.4% | Higher New | Actual: 7.3 for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Total Sales | 525.00 Mil | 530.00 Mil | 535.00 Mil | -23.6% | Lower New | Actual: 694.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Consolidated Same Store Sales Growth | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 EPS | 1.35 | 1.4 | 1.45 | -44.7% | Lower New | Actual: 2.53 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Sales | 2.24 Bil | 2.25 Bil | 2.25 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 2.22 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Consolidated Same Store Sales Growth | 6.5% | 6.75% | 7.0% | ||||
| 2026 Net Income | 222.80 Mil | 224.30 Mil | 225.80 Mil | ||||
| 2026 EPS | 7.25 | 7.3 | 7.35 | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.95 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 125.00 Mil | 127.50 Mil | 130.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 127.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 688.00 Mil | 694.00 Mil | 700.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 EPS | 2.47 | 2.53 | 2.59 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 2.20 Bil | 2.22 Bil | 2.23 Bil | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 2.14 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 6.75 | 6.95 | 7.15 | 11.2% | Raised | Guidance: 6.25 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 125.00 Mil | 127.50 Mil | 130.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kosoff, Jonathon David | CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 160.31 | 230 | 36,871 | 39,597 | Form |
| 2 | Morris, Brenda I | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 197.74 | 1,000 | 197,740 | 661,243 | Form | |
| 3 | Burt, Gene Eddie | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 191.41 | 1,200 | 229,692 | 638,927 | Form | |
| 4 | Starrett, Peter | Executive Chairman | Trust | Sell | 11042025 | 190.00 | 6,498 | 1,234,620 | 1,823,810 | Form |
| 5 | Grijalva, Laurie Marie | CHIEF MERCHANDISING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 172.14 | 7,487 | 1,288,812 | 1,223,227 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kosoff, Jonathon David | CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 160.31 | 230 | 36,871 | 39,597 | Form |
| 2 | Morris, Brenda I | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 197.74 | 1,000 | 197,740 | 661,243 | Form | |
| 3 | Burt, Gene Eddie | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 191.41 | 1,200 | 229,692 | 638,927 | Form | |
| 4 | Starrett, Peter | Executive Chairman | Trust | Sell | 11042025 | 190.00 | 6,498 | 1,234,620 | 1,823,810 | Form |
| 5 | Grijalva, Laurie Marie | CHIEF MERCHANDISING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 172.14 | 7,487 | 1,288,812 | 1,223,227 | Form |
| 6 | Morris, Brenda I | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 170.00 | 1,500 | 255,000 | 738,480 | Form | |
| 7 | Love, Michael A | CHIEF RETAIL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5272025 | 155.34 | 4,154 | 645,283 | 328,078 | Form |
| 8 | Grijalva, Laurie Marie | CHIEF MERCHANDISING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5222025 | 160.67 | 2,438 | 391,713 | 2,344,657 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Apparel Retail Resources |
| Apparel News |
| Just Style |
| Sourcing Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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