Citi Trends (CTRN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.69 | Market Cap: $351.0 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Citi Trends (CTRN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.69Market Cap: $351.0 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Retail & Value Consumption. Themes include Discount Fashion Retail. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -13 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% | ||
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 88x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Retail & Value Consumption. Themes include Discount Fashion Retail. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -13 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 88x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CTRN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Citi Trends (CTRN) experienced a notable positive movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, primarily driven by strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results and an optimistic outlook. On December 2, 2025, following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings, the company's shares saw a significant jump in pre-market trading.
1. Strong Comparable Store Sales Growth: Citi Trends reported a substantial 10.8% increase in comparable store sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable store sales growth, demonstrating sustained momentum. This growth was largely attributed to increased customer traffic, larger basket sizes, and improved conversion rates, influenced by the company's three-tiered merchandise assortment.
2. Revenue Exceeded Analyst Expectations: The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached $197.1 million, surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of $187.33 million by 5.22%. This revenue beat signaled strong performance and contributed to investor optimism.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTRN Return | 116% | 91% | -72% | 7% | -7% | 66% | 89% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 16% | -18% | 84% | 35% | 3% | 175% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTRN Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 43% | 63% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTRN Max Drawdown | -69% | -5% | -84% | -45% | -51% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -10% | -48% | -20% | -6% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, ANF, BURL, GAP. See CTRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 641.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 546 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 517.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4414 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TJX, ROST, ANF, BURL, GAP
In The Past
Citi Trends's stock fell -86.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -86.5% loss requires a 641.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CTRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Citi Trends
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 124.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| Rev LTM | 13,091 |
| Op Inc LTM | 965 |
| FCF LTM | 557 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 664 |
| CFO LTM | 1,010 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,129 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 10.6 |
| P/E | 14.6 |
| P/CFO | 17.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 19.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6112025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4162025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12112024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9112024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6122024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4182024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 4132023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6092022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 4142022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12082021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |