Citi Trends (CTRN)
Market Price (5/21/2026): $36.22 | Market Cap: $293.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Citi Trends (CTRN)
Market Price (5/21/2026): $36.22Market Cap: $293.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Retail & Value Consumption. Themes include Discount Fashion Retail. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.0 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 50x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 57x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksCTRN key risks include [1] the heightened economic sensitivity of its core low-income customer base, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Retail & Value Consumption. Themes include Discount Fashion Retail. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.0 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 50x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 57x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksCTRN key risks include [1] the heightened economic sensitivity of its core low-income customer base, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Citi Trends (CTRN) stock has lost about 15% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Citi Trends experienced an initial surge following its strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 earnings report on March 17, 2026, which saw the stock jump 17.0% to $51.66. The company reported total sales of $230.4 million for Q4 2025 with comparable store sales growth of 8.9%, and a positive Fiscal 2026 outlook targeting adjusted EBITDA of $34 million to $38 million, more than doubling fiscal 2025's profit performance.
2. Despite the positive earnings, the stock subsequently "drifted -8.9% lower" in the 51 days following the earnings announcement, indicating a reassessment of its valuation. Analysts already considered Citi Trends overvalued at both current price-to-earnings ratios and future earnings estimates. This suggests that after the initial positive reaction, market participants may have factored in long-term valuation concerns, leading to selling pressure.
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1. Citi Trends experienced an initial surge following its strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 earnings report on March 17, 2026, which saw the stock jump 17.0% to $51.66. The company reported total sales of $230.4 million for Q4 2025 with comparable store sales growth of 8.9%, and a positive Fiscal 2026 outlook targeting adjusted EBITDA of $34 million to $38 million, more than doubling fiscal 2025's profit performance.
2. Despite the positive earnings, the stock subsequently "drifted -8.9% lower" in the 51 days following the earnings announcement, indicating a reassessment of its valuation. Analysts already considered Citi Trends overvalued at both current price-to-earnings ratios and future earnings estimates. This suggests that after the initial positive reaction, market participants may have factored in long-term valuation concerns, leading to selling pressure.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.9% change in CTRN stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.15 | 36.28 | -15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 801 | 820 | 2.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | -17.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRN | -15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.4% | 43.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.5% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.3% change in CTRN stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.82 | 36.28 | 1.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 783 | 820 | 4.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | -2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRN | 1.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.3% | 33.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.3% | 40.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 62.5% change in CTRN stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.33 | 36.28 | 62.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 753 | 820 | 8.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.4 | 45.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 62.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRN | 62.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 35.2% | 34.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.5% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 110.2% change in CTRN stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 2264.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.26 | 36.28 | 110.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 795 | 820 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 0.6% | -91.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.4 | 56.5 | 2264.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 110.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRN | 110.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.2% | 39.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 63.5% | 40.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTRN Return | 91% | -72% | 7% | -7% | 58% | -10% | -24% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -23% | -3% | -1% | -6% | -1% | -10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTRN Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 38% | 53% | 50% | 58% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTRN Max Drawdown | -38% | -84% | -58% | -57% | -37% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -48% | -36% | -37% | -33% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ROST, TJX, BURL, CATO, PLCE. See CTRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 651 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -18.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Citi Trends's stock fell -34.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CTRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 651 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 535 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 651 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 250 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4843 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Citi Trends's stock fell -34.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Citi Trends (CTRN)
Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods. It offers apparel, such as fashion sportswear and footwear for men and ladies, as well as apparel for kids, including newborns, infants, toddlers, boys, and girls; sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for ladies; and kids uniforms and accessories. The company also provides accessories and beauty products that include handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches, as well as undergarments and outerwear for men and women. In addition, it offers home and lifestyle products comprising home products for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; and food, tech, team sports, and health products, as well as seasonal items, books, and toys. The company provides its products primarily to African American and Latinx families in the United States. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 609 stores in urban and rural markets in 33 states. The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc. and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc. in 2001. Citi Trends, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.
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A discount retailer for fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods, much like a neighborhood Ross Stores or Burlington.
An off-price fashion and home store, akin to a more community-focused TJ Maxx or Marshalls.
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Citi Trends' major products are:
- Apparel: The company offers a wide range of fashion sportswear, footwear, sleepwear, lingerie, scrubs, and uniforms for men, ladies, and children.
- Accessories & Beauty Products: This category includes items such as handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, watches, undergarments, and various beauty products.
- Home & Lifestyle Products: Citi Trends provides a selection of home goods for various rooms, decorative accessories, along with food, tech, team sports, health products, seasonal items, books, and toys.
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Citi Trends (CTRN) sells primarily to individuals.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- African American Families: Citi Trends explicitly targets and provides products to African American families across the United States.
- Latinx Families: Another key demographic for Citi Trends, the company primarily serves Latinx families in its urban and rural markets.
- Value-Conscious Shoppers: As a "value retailer," Citi Trends appeals to customers seeking affordable fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods for themselves and their families. This broad category encompasses the economic motivations of its primary demographic targets.
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Kenneth D. Seipel, Chief Executive Officer
Kenneth Seipel was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Citi Trends in November 2024, after serving as interim CEO since June 2024. He is a seasoned retail executive with experience leading both public and private equity-backed companies, as well as Fortune 500 retailers. From 2018 to 2021, Mr. Seipel was the CEO and co-owner of West Marine, where he successfully led a company turnaround, achieving record profits and a six-time return on investment for shareholders. Before that, from 2013 to 2017, he served as CEO of Gabe's, a privately held off-price retailer. During his tenure at Gabe's, he guided the business to record-level profits, resulting in a three-time investment exit transaction for its majority private equity owner. His prior experience also includes roles as President and COO of Wet Seal Inc. and Executive Vice President of Operations for North America at the Old Navy division of Gap, Inc. He began his career at JCPenney. Mr. Seipel has been a member of Citi Trends' board of directors since 2019.
Heather L. Plutino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Heather Plutino was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Citi Trends, Inc. in June 2022. Prior to joining Citi Trends, she served as Senior Vice President of Enterprise Financial Planning & Analysis and Commercial Finance at Bed Bath & Beyond. Her extensive finance career also includes positions as Group Vice President of Finance and Treasury at Sally Beauty Holdings, Vice President and Treasurer at Ascena Retail Group, and various finance roles at Target Corporation.
Lisa A. Powell, Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer
Lisa A. Powell serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer for Citi Trends, Inc.
Katrina George, Vice President of Human Resources
Katrina George holds the position of Vice President of Human Resources at Citi Trends.
Kyle Koenig, Vice President of Stores & Real Estate
Kyle Koenig is the Vice President of Stores & Real Estate for Citi Trends, Inc.
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Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance:
- Intense Market Competition: Citi Trends operates within a highly competitive retail landscape, facing pressure from national chains, mass merchandisers, and other off-price retailers such as TJX Companies (including TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods), Ross Stores, and Burlington. The company also contends with competition from aggressive online retailers and fast-fashion giants. This intense rivalry necessitates a strong value proposition and constant adaptation to pricing tactics and evolving consumer preferences to maintain its customer base and market share.
- Macroeconomic Vulnerability: As a value retailer primarily serving budget-conscious African American and Latinx families, Citi Trends is particularly susceptible to economic fluctuations. Factors such as inflation, unemployment, and shifts in discretionary spending can significantly impact the purchasing power and confidence of its core demographic, directly affecting sales and profitability. The company's core customer base is especially vulnerable to inflationary pressures.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Citi Trends is exposed to risks related to its supply chain, including potential changes in trade policies, such as increased tariffs, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Disruptions in the supply chain can lead to increased business costs, inventory shortages or excesses, and delays in product distribution, all of which can negatively impact sales and profitability. The company has experienced past distribution center delays that affected inventory turnover.
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The clear emerging threat to Citi Trends is the rapid rise and increasing market penetration of ultra-low-cost, fast-fashion e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu. These online retailers offer an immense selection of apparel, accessories, and home goods at extremely competitive price points, often undercutting traditional brick-and-mortar value retailers. Their business model, which leverages direct-from-manufacturer sourcing, rapid trend replication, and aggressive online marketing, allows them to appeal directly to price-sensitive and fashion-conscious consumers, including demographics targeted by Citi Trends. This shift represents a fundamental change in how a significant portion of the value retail market accesses products, challenging the traditional store-based model and potentially eroding market share for companies like Citi Trends by offering greater convenience, selection, and often lower prices through a purely digital channel.
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Citi Trends (CTRN) operates within several significant addressable markets in the United States, offering a range of fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods. The estimated market sizes for their main product categories in the U.S. are detailed below.Addressable Markets for Citi Trends' Main Products in the U.S.
- Apparel: The United States apparel market is estimated at $365.70 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $471.82 billion by 2032.
- Footwear: The U.S. shoe and footwear market was valued at $95.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $125.7 billion by 2032. In 2023, the U.S. footwear market size was approximately $88.5 billion.
- Fashion Accessories: The U.S. fashion accessories market generated a revenue of approximately $222.07 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $342.99 billion by 2030.
- Beauty Products: The U.S. beauty and personal care products market was valued at $92.0 billion in 2023. Another estimate indicates the U.S. beauty and personal care products market size was approximately $109.56 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $196.33 billion by 2033.
- Home Goods: The U.S. home decor market generated approximately $237.87 billion in revenue in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $392.56 billion by 2030.
- Food: Null
- Tech (Consumer Electronics): The U.S. consumer electronics market generated approximately $241.24 billion in revenue in 2025.
- Team Sports (Sporting Goods): The U.S. sporting goods industry reached $121.66 billion in 2023.
- Health Products (Health and Wellness Products): While the broader North America health and wellness market (including products and services) accounted for 34.22% of the global market, which was $6.8 trillion in 2024, no specific U.S. market size for only "health products" was readily available.
- Seasonal Items (Seasonal Decor): The U.S. Christmas decorative products market size was valued at $3.12 billion in 2025.
- Books: The revenue from book sales in the U.S. is expected to reach $23.9 billion in 2023. Another source indicates that the number of bookstores in the U.S. is growing, with $23.4 billion in projected revenue for 2024.
- Toys: Null
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Citi Trends (CTRN) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:- New Store Expansion: The company has concrete plans for expanding its store footprint. Citi Trends aims to open approximately 25 new stores in fiscal year 2026, followed by at least 40 new stores annually starting in 2027, with a target of reaching around 650 stores by the end of 2027. This expansion strategy focuses on backfilling existing markets with proven brand awareness and performance, while also selectively entering new markets that align with their demographic base.
- Existing Store Remodels and Optimizations: Investments in improving the existing store base are expected to boost sales. Citi Trends reported that remodeled stores continue to register a mid to high single-digit sales lift. The company plans to remodel approximately 40 stores in fiscal 2024 and up to 50 existing locations in fiscal 2025 as part of its ongoing fleet optimization efforts, which include streamlining store layouts and enhancing the overall in-store experience to drive foot traffic and conversion rates.
- Assortment Optimization and Enhanced Value Proposition: Citi Trends is focused on refining its product assortment and offering compelling value. This includes providing value-driven trends, off-price deals, and more branded "extreme value" products that resonate strongly with its core African American and Latinx customer base. This strategy is designed to drive traffic and increase customer engagement through better merchandise and improved store experiences.
- Leveraging Technology and Operational Efficiencies: The company is making strategic investments in technology and operational improvements. This includes utilizing ERP-driven analytics, AI-based allocation, and supply chain enhancements. These efforts are expected to lead to better inventory management, faster supply chain speeds, and an improved overall customer experience, all of which support sustained comparable store sales growth. Furthermore, these improvements are anticipated to contribute to gross margin expansion and operational expense leverage.
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Share Repurchases
- Citi Trends returned $3.8 million to shareholders through share repurchases in fiscal 2024.
- As of the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025, $40.0 million remained available under the company's share repurchase program.
- A stock repurchase authorization was previously announced on November 30, 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in fiscal 2024 were $12.1 million.
- Citi Trends anticipates capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $18 million to $22 million, primarily for opening up to 5 new stores, remodeling approximately 50 stores, and investing in systems and distribution centers.
- Later updates for fiscal 2025 indicated anticipated capital expenditures of approximately $23 million, mainly to open three new stores, close four locations, remodel 62 stores, and for ongoing investments in systems.
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Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.9 |
| Rev LTM | 6,388 |
| Op Inc LTM | 419 |
| FCF LTM | 75 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 72 |
| CFO LTM | 626 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 495 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -41.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.8 |
| P/EBIT | 23.0 |
| P/E | 32.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.0% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.28 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/18/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $45.65 | $41.20 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -20.5% | -11.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 63.5% | 55.5% |
| Downside Capture | 330.09 | 168.31 |
| Upside Capture | 150.17 | 159.55 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.5% | 35.3% |
CTRN Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.86 | 2.13 | 1.88 | 1.43 | 1.61 | 1.42 |
| Up Beta | 1.73 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | 1.36 | 1.84 | 2.54 | 1.56 | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Up Capture | 157% | 275% | 275% | 205% | 341% | 568% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 33 | 67 | 139 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 368% | 256% | 172% | 107% | 129% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 31 | 57 | 111 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRN | 42.1% | 55.4% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.5% | 18.3% | 0.36 | 36.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.2% | 12.1% | 1.62 | 34.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.2% | 26.8% | 1.24 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.2% | 18.7% | 1.89 | -8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.1% | 13.4% | 0.54 | 23.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.4% | 41.8% | -0.65 | 12.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRN | -16.8% | 61.1% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.9% | 23.7% | 0.29 | 46.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.0% | 0.65 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.5% | 18.0% | 0.89 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.1% | 19.4% | 0.46 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 34.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.1% | 55.6% | 0.37 | 19.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRN | 9.3% | 57.5% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 47.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 45.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.1% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 17.9% | 0.36 | 14.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 40.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/17/2026 | 17.0% | 3.8% | 7.0% |
| 12/2/2025 | -1.4% | 4.1% | -5.8% |
| 8/26/2025 | -0.2% | 2.9% | -7.8% |
| 6/3/2025 | 21.7% | 25.7% | 22.7% |
| 3/18/2025 | 2.9% | 3.7% | -9.1% |
| 11/19/2024 | 9.0% | 19.8% | 49.5% |
| 8/27/2024 | -7.2% | -15.8% | 11.9% |
| 5/31/2024 | 1.2% | -4.7% | -18.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 8.1% | 12.7% |
| Median Negative | -7.2% | -11.1% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 29.9% | 49.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.8% | -33.0% | -41.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 04/15/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/11/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 04/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 04/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Sales Growth | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | -14.3% | Lower New | Actual: 7.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 34.00 Mil | 36.00 Mil | 38.00 Mil | 227.3% | Higher New | Actual: 11.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Equity-based compensation expense | 5.50 Mil | 5.75 Mil | 6.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/2/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 7.0% | Higher New | |||||
| Q4 2025 Gross Margin | 40.0% | 40.5% | 41.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2025 SG&A | 82.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
| Q4 2025 EBITDA | 10.00 Mil | 11.00 Mil | 12.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2025 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 7.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Gross Margin Expansion | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.2% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 SG&A Leverage | 0.01 | 20.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 0.01 for 2025 | ||
| 2025 EBITDA | 10.00 Mil | 11.00 Mil | 12.00 Mil | 22.2% | Raised | Guidance: 9.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2027 EBITDA | 45.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jenkins, Margaret L | Direct | Sell | 4072026 | 45.91 | 2,000 | 91,820 | 650,223 | Form | |
| 2 | Heath, David A | Direct | Buy | 3262026 | 44.50 | 1,000 | 44,500 | 391,066 | Form | |
| 3 | George, Katrina | VP of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 45.22 | 450 | 20,349 | 243,464 | Form |
| 4 | George, Katrina | VP of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 36.15 | 316 | 11,423 | 210,899 | Form |
| 5 | Jenkins, Margaret L | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 36.21 | 1,000 | 36,210 | 585,262 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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