Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $231.51 | Market Cap: $2.5 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $231.51Market Cap: $2.5 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 149 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.9% | Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 149 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.9% |
| Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/23/2026
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook. Amazon reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.78 for fiscal Q1 2026, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.63 by $1.15. Revenue reached $181.52 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $177.28 billion and representing a 16.6% year-over-year increase. This robust performance and a positive outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 provided a strong foundation for the stock's gains.
2. Accelerated AWS Growth Fueled by AI Investments. Amazon Web Services (AWS) demonstrated substantial acceleration, with revenue growing 28% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fastest pace in 15 quarters. This growth, driven by strong enterprise AI demand, is projected by analysts to accelerate further to 33% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Amazon's commitment to approximately $200 billion in AI-related capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 further signaled significant future growth potential in its cloud computing segment.
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Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook. Amazon reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.78 for fiscal Q1 2026, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.63 by $1.15. Revenue reached $181.52 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $177.28 billion and representing a 16.6% year-over-year increase. This robust performance and a positive outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 provided a strong foundation for the stock's gains.
2. Accelerated AWS Growth Fueled by AI Investments. Amazon Web Services (AWS) demonstrated substantial acceleration, with revenue growing 28% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fastest pace in 15 quarters. This growth, driven by strong enterprise AI demand, is projected by analysts to accelerate further to 33% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Amazon's commitment to approximately $200 billion in AI-related capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 further signaled significant future growth potential in its cloud computing segment.
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Updated on 7/23/2026
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook. Amazon reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.78 for fiscal Q1 2026, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.63 by $1.15. Revenue reached $181.52 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $177.28 billion and representing a 16.6% year-over-year increase. This robust performance and a positive outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 provided a strong foundation for the stock's gains.
2. Accelerated AWS Growth Fueled by AI Investments. Amazon Web Services (AWS) demonstrated substantial acceleration, with revenue growing 28% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fastest pace in 15 quarters. This growth, driven by strong enterprise AI demand, is projected by analysts to accelerate further to 33% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Amazon's commitment to approximately $200 billion in AI-related capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 further signaled significant future growth potential in its cloud computing segment.
3. Highly Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets. Throughout the specified period, analysts maintained overwhelmingly positive ratings, with a consensus of "Buy" or "Strong Buy" for AMZN. Several prominent firms, including Benchmark, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America, raised their price targets in April and July 2026. The consensus price target ranged from approximately $312.44 to $318.98, implying a significant upside potential of 29% to 33.91% from the current price.
4. Strategic Shift of Prime Day to Fiscal Q2. Amazon strategically moved its annual Prime Day sales event from fiscal Q3 to fiscal Q2 2026. This shift is anticipated to provide a substantial revenue boost for fiscal Q2, with U.S. online sales during the event reportedly increasing over 9% year-over-year. The inclusion of this major sales event in fiscal Q2 2026 is expected to result in more favorable revenue comparisons.
Show less
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook. Amazon reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.78 for fiscal Q1 2026, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.63 by $1.15. Revenue reached $181.52 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $177.28 billion and representing a 16.6% year-over-year increase. This robust performance and a positive outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 provided a strong foundation for the stock's gains.
2. Accelerated AWS Growth Fueled by AI Investments. Amazon Web Services (AWS) demonstrated substantial acceleration, with revenue growing 28% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fastest pace in 15 quarters. This growth, driven by strong enterprise AI demand, is projected by analysts to accelerate further to 33% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Amazon's commitment to approximately $200 billion in AI-related capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 further signaled significant future growth potential in its cloud computing segment.
3. Highly Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets. Throughout the specified period, analysts maintained overwhelmingly positive ratings, with a consensus of "Buy" or "Strong Buy" for AMZN. Several prominent firms, including Benchmark, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America, raised their price targets in April and July 2026. The consensus price target ranged from approximately $312.44 to $318.98, implying a significant upside potential of 29% to 33.91% from the current price.
4. Strategic Shift of Prime Day to Fiscal Q2. Amazon strategically moved its annual Prime Day sales event from fiscal Q3 to fiscal Q2 2026. This shift is anticipated to provide a substantial revenue boost for fiscal Q2, with U.S. online sales during the event reportedly increasing over 9% year-over-year. The inclusion of this major sales event in fiscal Q2 2026 is expected to result in more favorable revenue comparisons.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.4% change in AMZN stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 208.27 | 232.11 | 11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 716,924 | 742,776 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.7 | 27.5 | -4.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,710 | 10,743 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 54.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.4% | 75.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.6% change in AMZN stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 230.82 | 232.11 | 0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 691,330 | 742,776 | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.2 | 27.5 | -14.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,674 | 10,743 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 57.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.2% | 76.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.8% change in AMZN stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 219.39 | 232.11 | 5.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 650,313 | 742,776 | 14.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 12.2% | 20.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.3 | 27.5 | -22.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,603 | 10,743 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 5.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 56.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 71.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.1% change in AMZN stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 1394.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 130.36 | 232.11 | 78.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 524,897 | 742,776 | 41.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 12.2% | 1394.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 311.2 | 27.5 | -91.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,250 | 10,743 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 78.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 67.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 31.8% | 75.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMZN Return | 2% | -50% | 81% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 43% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -37% | 78% | 54% | 25% | -11% | 153% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMZN Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 42% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 35% | 70% | 72% | 55% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMZN Max Drawdown | -15% | -52% | -20% | -19% | -31% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -50% | -16% | -15% | -27% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, META, NFLX. See AMZN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -26.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -26.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Amazon.com (AMZN)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is a global technology company known for its extensive e-commerce operations, cloud computing services, and consumer electronic devices. The company primarily engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions through its online and physical stores across North America and internationally. A significant part of its retail business involves selling merchandise directly and enabling numerous third-party sellers to offer their products on Amazon’s platform, serving a vast individual consumer base.
Beyond its retail footprint, Amazon is a leading provider of electronic devices, manufacturing products such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring smart home devices, and Echo smart speakers. It also operates Amazon Web Services (AWS), a major cloud computing platform that delivers a comprehensive suite of services including compute, storage, databases, analytics, and machine learning solutions to developers, enterprises, and content creators worldwide. Additionally, Amazon offers programs that support authors, musicians, filmmakers, and app developers in publishing and selling their content, complemented by its Amazon Prime membership program which provides free shipping, streaming media access, and other benefits to consumers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Amazon.com:
The **Walmart** for the internet, selling virtually everything online.
Like **Netflix** for digital content, combined with a fast shipping subscription service.
A massive cloud computing provider like **Microsoft** or **IBM**, offering foundational internet infrastructure to businesses worldwide.
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- Online & Physical Retail: Amazon sells consumer products and merchandise directly and from third-party sellers through its online and physical stores.
- Electronic Devices: The company manufactures and sells various electronic devices, including Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring security products, and Echo smart speakers.
- Cloud Computing Services (AWS): Amazon Web Services provides a comprehensive suite of cloud services, encompassing compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and more for businesses.
- Amazon Prime Membership: This subscription program offers benefits such as free expedited shipping, access to streaming movies and series, and other exclusive services.
- Seller & Content Creator Programs: Amazon provides platforms and services enabling third-party sellers to offer products and allowing authors, musicians, filmmakers, and developers to publish and sell content.
- Media Content Production: The company develops and produces original media content, including movies and series for its streaming services.
- Fulfillment & Advertising Services: Amazon offers fulfillment services for inventory storage and shipping, alongside advertising solutions for brands and businesses.
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Amazon.com (AMZN) primarily sells to individuals across several categories. While the company also has a significant business-to-business segment through Amazon Web Services (AWS) and services for third-party sellers, its core retail operations, device sales, and subscription services are largely directed at individual consumers.
The major categories of customers Amazon serves include:
- General Consumers/Shoppers: Individuals who purchase a vast array of physical products (ranging from electronics and books to groceries and and apparel) through Amazon's online marketplace and physical stores. This category also includes subscribers to the Amazon Prime membership program, who benefit from faster shipping, exclusive deals, and access to various digital content services.
- Digital Media Consumers: Individuals who utilize Amazon's digital content offerings. This encompasses viewers of Amazon Prime Video for movies and series, listeners of Amazon Music, readers of Kindle e-books, and users engaging with Twitch streams and other digital content platforms provided by Amazon.
- Device Owners: Individuals who purchase and use Amazon's proprietary electronic devices. This category includes owners of Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Echo smart speakers, and Ring smart home security devices, all designed for individual use and integration into their daily lives.
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Andy Jassy, President and Chief Executive Officer
Andy Jassy joined Amazon in 1997 as a marketing manager and co-founded Amazon Web Services (AWS) in 2003, serving as its CEO from April 2016 until July 2021. He held various leadership roles across Amazon before founding AWS. Before Amazon, Jassy co-founded a short-lived startup and worked as a project manager for a collectibles company. He earned an A.B. in government and an MBA from Harvard University.
Brian T. Olsavsky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian T. Olsavsky has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Amazon since June 2015, having joined the company in April 2002. Prior to this role, he was Vice President, Finance for the Global Consumer Business from 2011 to 2015. His earlier career included financial and operational roles at Union Carbide, BF Goodrich, and seven years at Fisher Scientific. Olsavsky holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Penn State University and an MBA in Finance from Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business.
Doug Herrington, Chief Executive Officer, Worldwide Amazon Stores
Doug Herrington assumed the role of CEO of Worldwide Amazon Stores in July 2022. He joined Amazon in 2005 to launch the Amazon consumables business and led teams that developed services like Subscribe and Save, Amazon Fresh, Amazon Business, Alexa Shopping, and Buy with Prime. Before Amazon, Herrington was a management consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton. He also co-founded and served as CEO of KeepMedia, a digital news service, and held leadership positions at the grocery delivery startup Webvan. He earned an MBA from Harvard Business School and an AB in Economics from Princeton University.
Matt Garman, Chief Executive Officer, Amazon Web Services
Matt Garman became CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS) in June 2024. He joined Amazon in 2006 (or as an intern in 2005) and was AWS's first product manager, contributing to the launch of many core AWS services. His previous roles at AWS include Senior Vice President, AWS Sales, Marketing, and Global Services, as well as leadership in product management, engineering, and operations for compute and storage services. Garman holds a B.S. and M.S. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University and an MBA from Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management.
David Zapolsky, Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer
David Zapolsky serves as Amazon’s Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer.
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Amazon.com (AMZN) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from its dominant market position and the dynamic nature of the e-commerce and cloud computing industries.
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Amazon's vast scale and market power in both e-commerce and cloud services have made it a frequent target for antitrust investigations and regulatory actions globally. Governments and regulatory bodies in the U.S., EU, UK, and other regions are actively scrutinizing Amazon's business practices, particularly concerning its treatment of third-party sellers, alleged anti-discounting tactics, and potential for self-preferencing its own products and services over competitors. These investigations can lead to significant fines, forced changes in business models, and even potential divestitures, which could fundamentally alter Amazon's operations and profitability. For instance, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and 17 state attorneys general filed a major antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in September 2023, alleging the company illegally maintains monopolies in online superstore and online marketplace services. Separately, the FTC secured a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon in September 2025 over allegations of enrolling millions of consumers in Prime subscriptions without consent and making cancellation difficult.
- Intense Competition Across Segments: Despite its market leadership, Amazon faces robust competition in its core business areas. In e-commerce, it competes with established retailers like Walmart and Target, as well as rapidly growing disruptive newcomers such as Temu and Shein. The threat of Amazon directly competing with its own third-party sellers by developing similar, often cheaper, private-label products is also a significant concern for many businesses utilizing its platform. In the cloud computing sector, Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds a leading market share but faces aggressive competition from well-funded rivals like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform. This intense competition across all segments can lead to pricing pressures, impact market share, and necessitate continuous heavy investment in innovation and infrastructure, potentially affecting profit margins.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending Volatility: Amazon's retail business is highly susceptible to broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, interest rate changes, and overall consumer spending patterns. Economic downturns, inflationary pressures, and reduced consumer discretionary spending can directly impact sales volume and revenue in its North American and International retail segments. While AWS is a more resilient segment, enterprise spending on cloud services could also be affected during prolonged economic uncertainty. Rising operational costs, such as wages, shipping, and energy, further squeeze profit margins, even as Amazon navigates these economic fluctuations.
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- The emergence of ultra-low-cost, direct-from-manufacturer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Temu, Shein) which offer a different supply chain model, often with significantly lower prices, challenging Amazon's third-party marketplace and value proposition in certain retail categories.
- Increasing global regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions that threaten to impose significant operational changes, fines, or restrictions on Amazon's business practices across its e-commerce and cloud segments.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) operates across several large and growing addressable markets globally and in North America. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
E-commerce (Retail Sale of Consumer Products)
- The global e-commerce market was valued at approximately USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 83.19 trillion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.43% from 2026 to 2035. Other estimates place the global market at USD 33.8 trillion in 2025, growing to USD 243.4 trillion by 2034 with a CAGR of 24.54% from 2026-2034.
- The North America e-commerce market was valued at USD 1.45 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 2.51 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 9.57% during the forecast period (2026-2031). North America accounted for over 36% of the global market in 2023.
- Specifically, the North America B2C e-commerce market was valued at USD 1,354.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,015.39 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2025 to 2033.
- The North America B2B e-commerce market is valued at USD 1,250 billion.
Amazon Web Services (AWS - Cloud Computing)
- The global cloud computing market size was valued at USD 736.10 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 20.8% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global market at USD 943.65 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 3,349.61 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16.0% from 2026 to 2033.
- The North America cloud computing market was valued at USD 353.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,092.70 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.20% during the forecast period. North America held a 39.0% share of the global cloud computing market in 2024.
Electronic Devices (Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, Echo - Smart Home Devices)
- The global smart home device market was valued at USD 127.80 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 537.27 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 27.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 163.30 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 278.32 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.62%.
- The North America smart home device market accounted for a leading global market share of 39.45% in 2025, with a market size of USD 70.38 billion in 2026. The U.S. smart home market was worth over USD 50.6 billion in 2024.
Digital Content and Publishing (Kindle Direct Publishing, media content)
- The global digital publishing market size was valued at USD 204.83 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 470.09 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.67% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source states the market was valued at USD 163.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 279.68 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period.
- North America was the largest region in the digital publishing market in 2025, accounting for 36.12% of the global market share.
Subscription Services (Amazon Prime - streaming of movies and series)
- The global video on demand (VOD) market was valued at approximately USD 175.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 528.9 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the global market size at USD 133.44 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 477.04 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 14.90%.
- The global subscription video on demand (SVOD) market size was estimated at USD 95.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2030.
- The North America subscription video on demand market accounted for a significant share of over 44% in 2024. The U.S. subscription video on demand industry dominated with a share of over 67% in 2024.
Advertising
- The global digital advertising market size was estimated at USD 488.40 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,164.25 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another source estimates the global market at USD 650.00 billion in 2025, expected to exceed USD 1,593 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.38% from 2026 to 2035.
- North America dominated the digital advertising market with a share of over 31% in 2024. The North America digital advertising market generated a revenue of USD 153,063.9 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 339,261.6 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030. The US market is projected to reach USD 243,243.1 million by 2030.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Amazon.com (AMZN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI): Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, is projected to be a significant driver of future revenue growth. AWS reported a 24% year-over-year increase in revenue in Q4 2025, reaching $35.6 billion. Analysts expect AWS annual revenue growth to be around 30% over the next three years, surpassing the broader Wall Street projection of 25%. This acceleration is largely fueled by the surging demand for AI computing and ongoing migration of enterprise infrastructure to the cloud. Amazon is making substantial capital expenditures in AWS data centers, including AI infrastructure and custom silicon development, with plans to double power capacity by 2027. The company's cloud backlog also provides substantial revenue visibility, having reached $200 billion by Q3 2025 and $244 billion by Q4 2025.
- Expansion of Advertising Services: Amazon's advertising segment is rapidly growing and is expected to continue contributing significantly to revenue. Advertising services generated $56.2 billion in revenue in 2024, a 20% year-over-year increase, and $21.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 22% year-over-year. CEO Andy Jassy noted a $69 billion annual revenue run rate for the advertising business in Q4 2024. Projections suggest ad revenue could climb to $80-90 billion within the next 2-3 years. A key contributor to this growth is the introduction of ads on Prime Video in January 2024, which is forecast to increase ad revenue from $433 million in 2024 to $806 million in 2025. The ad-supported version of Prime Video reached over 130 million US consumers monthly in 2025, with an audience totaling 315 million viewers in Q4 2025.
- Growth and Enhancement of Amazon Prime Membership and Offerings: The Amazon Prime membership program remains a crucial driver by fostering customer loyalty and increasing shopping frequency. Paid US Amazon Prime subscribers are projected to exceed 128 million by the end of 2025, building on a base of over 240 million paid members globally. Amazon's strategies include offering flexible pricing plans (annual, monthly, quarterly, and "Lite" options in some markets) and enhancing benefits such as faster delivery, exclusive deals, and expanded digital content like Prime Video. The company's continued investment in innovative customer experiences, including AI-driven personalization and improvements in logistics for quicker delivery, further solidifies Prime's value proposition.
- International Expansion and Retail Optimization: Amazon's international segment is poised for continued growth. In 2025, the International segment sales increased by 13% year-over-year. The company is focused on capturing new audiences and fostering brand loyalty in emerging markets. Strategies include investments in rural markets and offering sharper prices in its international stores business. These efforts, combined with advancements in customer experience and optimized supply chain logistics, are expected to contribute to the overall retail segment's revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In March 2022, Amazon's board approved an expanded share-repurchase authorization of $10 billion, replacing a previous $5 billion authorization.
- As of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased approximately $3.88 billion worth of shares under the March 2022 authorization.
Share Issuance
- Amazon's common stock increased from 106 million shares in fiscal year 2021 to 112 million shares in fiscal year 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Amazon acquired Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) for $8.45 billion, significantly boosting its content library for Prime Video.
- The company acquired One Medical Group in July 2022 for approximately $3.9 billion.
- Amazon has committed significant international investments, including a $35 billion investment in India by 2030 and over $23 billion for new AWS cloud regions across Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $61.053 billion in 2021, $63.645 billion in 2022, $52.729 billion in 2023, $82.999 billion in 2024, and $131.8 billion in 2025.
- Amazon anticipates investing approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily focused on artificial intelligence (AI), chips, robotics, and low earth orbit satellites.
- The capital expenditure is also directed towards expanding cloud computing infrastructure for AWS and increasing its rural delivery network.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 275.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,000.9 |
| Rev LTM | 382,070 |
| Op Inc LTM | 87,008 |
| FCF LTM | 30,402 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 35,724 |
| CFO LTM | 136,266 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 109,675 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,000.9 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.5 |
| P/E | 22.1 |
| P/CFO | 18.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 426,305 | 387,497 | 352,828 | 315,880 | 279,833 |
| International | 161,894 | 142,906 | 131,200 | 118,007 | 127,787 |
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 128,725 | 107,556 | 90,757 | 80,096 | 62,202 |
| Total | 716,924 | 637,959 | 574,785 | 513,983 | 469,822 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 45,606 | 39,834 | 24,631 | 22,841 | 18,532 |
| North America | 29,619 | 24,967 | 14,877 | -2,847 | 7,271 |
| International | 4,750 | 3,792 | -2,656 | -7,746 | -924 |
| Total | 79,975 | 68,593 | 36,852 | 12,248 | 24,879 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 252,588 | 155,953 | 108,533 | 88,491 | 63,835 |
| Corporate | 247,818 | 189,334 | 153,574 | 124,250 | 137,476 |
| North America | 235,652 | 210,120 | 196,029 | 185,268 | 161,255 |
| International | 81,984 | 69,487 | 69,718 | 64,666 | 57,983 |
| Total | 818,042 | 624,894 | 527,854 | 462,675 | 420,549 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $232.11 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2,493.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $248.87 | $234.47 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.7% | -1.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.1% | 31.5% |
| Downside Capture | 114.15 | 159.34 |
| Upside Capture | 34.97 | 129.19 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.7% | 57.9% |
AMZN Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.19 | 1.14 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.40 | 1.39 |
| Up Beta | 2.88 | 2.28 | 1.75 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 1.24 |
| Down Beta | 0.75 | 1.15 | 1.35 | 1.55 | 1.80 | 1.57 |
| Up Capture | 14% | 29% | 98% | 124% | 143% | 278% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 19 | 35 | 65 | 136 | 394 |
| Down Capture | 142% | 124% | 94% | 129% | 133% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 28 | 60 | 115 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 1.7% | 31.5% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.9% | 19.3% | -0.27 | 73.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 57.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 12.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.4% | 42.9% | -1.29 | 28.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 5.0% | 35.7% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.0% | 24.0% | 0.17 | 79.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 71.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.7% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 31.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 20.0% | 32.6% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.5% | 22.1% | 0.48 | 75.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 65.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 19.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -6.2% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
| 10/26/2023 | 6.8% | 15.5% | 23.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -5.3% | 9.4% |
| 2/2/2023 | -8.4% | -13.0% | -17.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | -6.8% | -19.5% | -15.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 10.4% | 16.6% | 6.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | 13.5% | 14.5% | -1.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | -2.2% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -7.6% | -6.2% | -7.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.1% | -4.8% | -7.2% |
| 2/2/2021 | -2.0% | -2.2% | -11.9% |
| 10/29/2020 | -5.4% | 3.5% | -1.3% |
| 7/30/2020 | 3.7% | 5.7% | 11.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -6.2% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/04/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/31/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/26/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Net sales | 194.00 Bil | 196.50 Bil | 199.00 Bil | 11.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 176.00 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Net sales growth | 16.0% | 17.5% | 19.0% | 4.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 13.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating income | 20.00 Bil | 22.00 Bil | 24.00 Bil | 15.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 173.50 Bil | 176.00 Bil | 178.50 Bil | -16.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 209.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.5% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Income | 16.50 Bil | 19.00 Bil | 21.50 Bil | -19.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 23.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 200.00 Bil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 206.00 Bil | 209.50 Bil | 213.00 Bil | 18.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 176.75 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Revenue Growth | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 11.5% for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Operating Income | 21.00 Bil | 23.50 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 30.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 18.00 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 239.77 | 1,000 | 239,770 | 116,175,039 | Form |
| 2 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 266.19 | 1,000 | 266,190 | 129,242,432 | Form |
| 3 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 268.53 | 9,270 | 2,489,273 | 11,060,751 | Form |
| 4 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.40 | 15,467 | 4,073,956 | 3,729,433 | Form |
| 5 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.42 | 20,000 | 5,268,342 | 581,036,490 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 239.77 | 1,000 | 239,770 | 116,175,039 | Form |
| 2 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 266.19 | 1,000 | 266,190 | 129,242,432 | Form |
| 3 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 268.53 | 9,270 | 2,489,273 | 11,060,751 | Form |
| 4 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.40 | 15,467 | 4,073,956 | 3,729,433 | Form |
| 5 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.42 | 20,000 | 5,268,342 | 581,036,490 | Form |
| 6 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 262.39 | 6,370 | 1,671,439 | 127,660,954 | Form |
| 7 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.43 | 6,180 | 1,627,979 | 13,292,525 | Form |
| 8 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 262.38 | 2,363 | 620,003 | 31,427,840 | Form |
| 9 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 262.66 | 11,475 | 3,013,973 | 3,002,153 | Form |
| 10 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 262.59 | 3,742 | 982,602 | 125,246,814 | Form |
| 11 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 275.00 | 31,352 | 8,621,800 | 598,335,650 | Form |
| 12 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 273.02 | 3,706 | 1,011,812 | 20,462,303 | Form | |
| 13 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 260.00 | 3,849 | 1,000,740 | 20,450,040 | Form | |
| 14 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 255.00 | 31,000 | 7,905,000 | 562,815,090 | Form |
| 15 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 245.00 | 20,500 | 5,022,500 | 122,465,945 | Form |
| 16 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 210.50 | 1,000 | 210,500 | 109,535,990 | Form |
| 17 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 204.25 | 1,000 | 204,250 | 106,487,984 | Form |
| 18 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.43 | 10,649 | 2,187,624 | 8,461,662 | Form |
| 19 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.18 | 19,872 | 4,077,378 | 459,221,638 | Form |
| 20 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.22 | 17,751 | 3,642,842 | 1,930,084 | Form |
| 21 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.35 | 7,100 | 1,457,990 | 10,645,178 | Form |
| 22 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.82 | 6,835 | 1,406,785 | 107,512,762 | Form |
| 23 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.90 | 2,695 | 554,892 | 24,662,327 | Form |
| 24 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 198.37 | 4,784 | 948,990 | 101,585,756 | Form |
| 25 | Alexander, Keith Brian | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 203.88 | 900 | 183,492 | 1,278,328 | Form | |
| 26 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 208.00 | 1,000 | 208,000 | 105,026,272 | Form |
| 27 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 233.22 | 2,500 | 583,050 | 117,993,927 | Form |
| 28 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 222.49 | 13,570 | 3,019,189 | 9,164,363 | Form |
| 29 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 19,872 | 4,310,952 | 479,061,908 | Form |
| 30 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.90 | 17,768 | 3,853,946 | 1,360,637 | Form |
| 31 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 7,100 | 1,540,277 | 11,879,655 | Form |
| 32 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.40 | 6,835 | 1,479,098 | 110,025,420 | Form |
| 33 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.41 | 2,695 | 583,222 | 25,921,439 | Form |
| 34 | Huttenlocher, Daniel P | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 226.61 | 1,237 | 280,317 | 5,925,398 | Form | |
| 35 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 232.71 | 4,784 | 1,113,263 | 115,929,698 | Form |
| 36 | Alexander, Keith Brian | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 233.00 | 900 | 209,700 | 1,670,610 | Form | |
| 37 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 255.44 | 2,500 | 638,600 | 125,422,828 | Form |
| 38 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 250.03 | 8,173 | 2,043,495 | 20,009,901 | Form | |
| 39 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 250.03 | 22,000 | 5,500,660 | 123,391,555 | Form |
| 40 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 217.10 | 2,500 | 542,750 | 111,916,570 | Form |
| 41 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 223.49 | 2,500 | 558,725 | 115,769,384 | Form |
| 42 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 222.76 | 13,570 | 3,022,853 | 9,825,944 | Form |
| 43 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.58 | 19,872 | 4,403,259 | 482,714,826 | Form |
| 44 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.57 | 17,785 | 3,940,677 | 695,296 | Form |
| 45 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.54 | 7,100 | 1,572,945 | 12,778,513 | Form |
| 46 | Olsavsky, Brian T | Senior Vice President and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 222.74 | 17,750 | 3,953,635 | 10,914,260 | Form |
| 47 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.62 | 6,835 | 1,514,783 | 115,355,537 | Form |
| 48 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.64 | 2,715 | 601,755 | 26,548,139 | Form |
| 49 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 232.32 | 4,784 | 1,111,410 | 118,541,470 | Form |
| 50 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 217.00 | 2,500 | 542,500 | 111,114,850 | Form |
| 51 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 230.43 | 2,643,142 | 609,055,618 | 203,648,201,195 | Form |
| 52 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 228.48 | 1,510,956 | 345,219,752 | 202,527,898,092 | Form |
| 53 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 229.39 | 2,339,470 | 536,641,386 | 203,679,522,189 | Form |
| 54 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 227.77 | 4,273,237 | 973,318,251 | 202,778,225,455 | Form |
| 55 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 227.02 | 733,195 | 166,449,709 | 203,079,724,832 | Form |
| 56 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7152025 | 225.89 | 2,442,187 | 551,671,567 | 202,236,956,419 | Form |
| 57 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7152025 | 224.81 | 4,273,237 | 960,684,493 | 201,820,701,440 | Form |
| 58 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 224.02 | 384,124 | 86,052,572 | 202,067,608,493 | Form |
| 59 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 223.88 | 101,081 | 22,630,055 | 202,025,071,994 | Form |
| 60 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7082025 | 223.92 | 2,046,582 | 458,271,869 | 202,083,981,766 | Form |
| 61 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7082025 | 223.73 | 927,863 | 207,592,274 | 202,371,298,011 | Form |
| 62 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 220.06 | 2,500 | 550,144 | 113,230,640 | Form |
| 63 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7012025 | 223.56 | 224,926 | 50,284,187 | 202,422,427,665 | Form |
| 64 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7012025 | 221.42 | 3,100,000 | 686,399,202 | 200,534,826,125 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 25, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Pamplona Capital Management, LLC | $182.6 Mil | 38.6% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $1.6 Bil | 38.2% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $861.0 Mil | 36.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $225.1 Mil | 28.8% | 11 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A. | $63.8 Mil | 23.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Standard Investments LLC | $369.3 Mil | 21.7% | 11 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $129.1 Mil | 20.5% | 10 | TRIM -79.6% | 13F |
| Ulysses Management LLC | $53.6 Mil | 20.2% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $51.7 Mil | 19.9% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $49.0 Mil | 19.3% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Tikvah Management LLC | $61.6 Mil | 19.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| B&D White Capital Company, LLC | $153.6 Mil | 19.0% | 74 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 18.9% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Hoey Investments, Inc | $126.2 Mil | 18.6% | 416 | Hold | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $52.7 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $134.6 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | ADD +9.5% | 13F |
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $82.1 Mil | 15.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.7 Bil | 12.5% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $899.7 Mil | 15.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) | $576.3 Mil | 13.3% | 346 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $515.5 Mil | 12.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $246.2 Mil | 11.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| HMI Capital Management, L.P. | $110.2 Mil | 14.6% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $105.9 Mil | 14.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $78.6 Mil | 10.6% | 30 | New | 13F |
| Manitou Investment Management Ltd. | $58.0 Mil | 11.5% | 52 | New | 13F |
| Square Wave Capital, LLC | $54.9 Mil | 13.3% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Horiko Capital Management LLC | $46.2 Mil | 10.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $40.8 Mil | 13.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $39.1 Mil | 14.5% | 37 | New | 13F |
| ShawSpring Partners LLC | $38.8 Mil | 14.5% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Arkfeld Wealth Strategies, L.L.C. | $36.3 Mil | 11.5% | 115 | New | 13F |
| Maestria Partners LLC | $30.7 Mil | 11.2% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $438.0 Mil | 15.3% | 20 | ADD +26.4% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $134.6 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | ADD +9.5% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $1.4 Bil | 14.8% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Banque Pictet & Cie SA | $1.2 Bil | 11.7% | 384 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $783.5 Mil | 11.2% | 16 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $383.8 Mil | 30.1% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $341.7 Mil | 32.6% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Maplelane Capital, LLC | $277.2 Mil | 15.8% | 138 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $202.0 Mil | 12.5% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $185.7 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $141.3 Mil | 11.5% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda | $130.4 Mil | 25.0% | 35 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Quarry LP | $104.0 Mil | 17.0% | 2064 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $85.0 Mil | 15.0% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $85.0 Mil | 15.0% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cypress Funds LLC | $81.7 Mil | 13.5% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Criteria Caixa, S.A.U. | $64.9 Mil | 22.4% | 8 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Milestones Administradora de Recursos Ltda. | $47.2 Mil | 15.6% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Range Rock Capital, LLC | $44.8 Mil | 15.6% | 26 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $43.8 Mil | 14.0% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $36.7 Mil | 12.4% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $129.1 Mil | 20.5% | 10 | TRIM -79.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $416.3 Mil | 13.1% | 14 | TRIM -21.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crow's Nest Holdings LP | $56.2 Mil | 13.1% | 11 | TRIM -18.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $66.9 Mil | 11.3% | 21 | TRIM -14.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.7 Bil | 12.5% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $1.6 Bil | 38.2% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $899.7 Mil | 15.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $861.0 Mil | 36.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) | $576.3 Mil | 13.3% | 346 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $515.5 Mil | 12.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $438.0 Mil | 15.3% | 20 | ADD +26.4% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $416.3 Mil | 13.1% | 14 | TRIM -21.6% | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $386.3 Mil | 14.6% | 13 | Hold | 13F |
| Standard Investments LLC | $369.3 Mil | 21.7% | 11 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $246.2 Mil | 11.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $245.8 Mil | 12.2% | 13 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $225.1 Mil | 28.8% | 11 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $208.3 Mil | 14.5% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Pamplona Capital Management, LLC | $182.6 Mil | 38.6% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| B&D White Capital Company, LLC | $153.6 Mil | 19.0% | 74 | Hold | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $144.4 Mil | 11.8% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
AMZN Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, anchored by accelerating demand in the company's primary profit engine, Amazon Web Services. AWS revenue growth hit 28%, its fastest in 15 quarters, supported by a $364 billion backlog of future work. While a heavy investment cycle pressures near-term cash flow, it appears necessary to capture a generational shift to artificial intelligence.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: A mix of transactional (Retail), recurring subscription (Prime), usage-based (AWS), and advertising revenue.A combination of (Number of Retail/Prime Customers x Spend per Customer) + (Number of AWS Customers x Usage per Customer) + (Ad Impressions x Price per Impression). AWS operating margin, driven by economies of scale, high-value service mix (AI), and cost advantages from custom silicon.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. A new wave of AI-related demand is fueling accelerating growth in the company's most profitable segment.
Mechanism:
AWS captures accelerating AI workloads, driving revenue growth from its current $150 billion run-rate and expanding margins via cost-advantaged custom chips like Trainium.
Supporting Evidence:
- AWS revenue growth accelerated to 28% year-over-year, its fastest rate in 15 quarters.
- The AWS backlog of future contracted revenue surged to $364 billion as of March 31, 2026.
- Management states there is currently 'more demand than we have supplied for' in AWS.
- The custom Trainium2 chip offers 30% better price performance than comparable GPUs.
PRIMARY RISK
The company's plan to invest ~$200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 could destroy value if intense competition from Microsoft and Google compresses returns.
Mechanism:
A deceleration in AWS revenue growth would confirm that the capital spend is not generating sufficient demand.
Supporting Evidence:
- The company guided to approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is currently negative at $-2.5 billion.
- The stock reacted -10.0% on 2/5/2026 following the initial capex guidance.
- Competitors like Microsoft and Google are also investing heavily in AI infrastructure.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AWS Revenue Growth | 28% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | AWS has demonstrated significant re-acceleration for three consecutive quarters, with year-over-year growth increasing from 20.2% to 28%. Management noted this is the "fastest growth rate in 15 quarters" on a base that is now a "$150 billion annualized revenue run rate business." |
| Worldwide Paid Unit Growth | 15% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | The volume growth in the Stores business has accelerated for three consecutive quarters, with the latest 15% growth rate being the highest seen "since the tail end of COVID lockdowns." |
| AWS Annualized Revenue Run Rate | $150 billion (Q1 FY2026) | Indicates the forward-looking annual revenue trajectory of the AWS segment based on the most recent quarter's performance, highlighting its massive scale and growth momentum. |
| AWS Backlog / Performance Obligations | $364 billion (as of 3/31/2026) | Represents future revenue contractually committed by AWS customers, providing high visibility into the segment's long-term growth trajectory. The rapid increase from $244 billion in Q4 2025 indicates accelerating long-term demand. |
| Stores Unit Growth (YoY) | 15% (Q1 FY2026) | Measures the volume growth in the retail business, indicating customer demand and market share trends independent of price changes. The recent high growth rate suggests strong consumer engagement. |
Core Investment Debate
Investment Cycle vs. Cash Burn
BULL VIEW
The negative free cash flow is a temporary, strategic investment to build capacity for a generational AI opportunity, evidenced by the exploding $364 billion AWS backlog.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating AWS growth (28% YoY) and its massive backlog justify the negative free cash flow ($-2.5B TTM) that the market previously punished?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bull view. The Q1 acceleration in AWS growth and backlog expansion occurred after the market's negative reaction, suggesting returns on investment are materializing quickly.
BEAR VIEW
The ~$200 billion capex plan for 2026 signals a permanent state of lower returns in a hyper-competitive cloud market, a fear validated by the market's sharp negative reaction in February.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Earnings Volatility and Capex Scrutiny Watch: AWS growth rate, AWS operating margins, and any update to the full-year capex forecast. |
Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Second Quarter Earnings Call Watch: The company will hold a conference call to discuss its second quarter 2026 financial results. |
8/20/2026 | Retail Health Barometer Watch: Walmart's e-commerce growth, commentary on consumer spending trends, and any shifts in grocery market share. |
in Q3 | Amazon Leo Commercial Launch Watch: Amazon Leo's commercial service is on track to launch. |
Q3 2026 | Satellite Network Launch Execution Watch: Company announcements confirming the commercial launch, initial customer uptake, and any revisions to the launch or cost timeline. |
10/19/2026 | Peer Netflix Earnings Report Watch: Peer Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Cloud and AI Competitive Read-Through Watch: Azure and Google Cloud revenue growth rates and commentary on AI workload demand and capacity constraints. |
10/28/2026 | Third Quarter Earnings Report Watch: The next scheduled earnings report for Amazon.com is dated for the third quarter. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-13 | New Supply Chain Business Launched Details: Amazon launched Amazon Supply Chain Services, a new business leveraging its extensive logistics network to offer residential parcel delivery for external customers. | +0.9% $245.34 -> $247.49 |
2026-06-08 | Prime Day Shifted to June Details: The annual Prime Day sales event was moved into June for Q2 2026, a timing shift expected to pull billions in revenue forward from the third quarter. | -0.7% $246.03 -> $244.19 |
2026-04-29 | Major AWS AI Partnership with OpenAI Details: AWS announced it would bring OpenAI's models to its Bedrock platform, signaling a major strategic move in the competitive cloud AI market. | +2.1% $259.70 -> $265.06 |
2026-04-29 | Q1 Earnings Beat and Guidance Raise Details: For Q1 2026, the company reported strong results and raised guidance for Q2 Net Sales and Operating Income. The stock reacted positively, rising 2.0% over two days. | +2.1% $259.70 -> $265.06 |
2026-03-25 | Fauna Robotics Acquisition Announced Details: Amazon announced it is acquiring Fauna Robotics, expanding its investments in robotics and automation. | +0.1% $207.24 -> $207.54 |
2026-02-05 | Q4 Earnings and Capex Shock Details: Amazon reported strong Q4 sales growth of 16.6% but shares fell 10.0% after the company announced plans to increase capital spending to over $200 billion for 2026. | -9.7% $232.99 -> $210.32 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AMZN trades at roughly 34% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market), around the 83rd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Pure-Play Software ExposureMicrosoft offers a structurally higher operating margin profile of 46.8% versus Amazon's, as it is not exposed to the lower-margin retail business.
Core Thesis: Invest in a high-margin software giant capturing AI growth through its Azure cloud platform and broad suite of enterprise applications.
GOOGL - Alphabet
AI Model and Search LeaderAlphabet provides exposure to the AI trend through its leadership in search and its own large language models, in addition to its fast-growing cloud segment.
Core Thesis: Invest in the dominant search and advertising business that is also a primary competitor in the AI and cloud infrastructure markets.
How Is The Market Pricing AMZN?
Amazon is an AI infrastructure company with a massive, attached logistics and retail operation that serves as a proprietary data and customer acquisition engine.
The investment thesis centers on AWS entering a second, AI-driven hyper-growth phase. This division is not just a cloud provider but a core enabler of the AI revolution, with a key advantage in its custom silicon (Trainium) that lowers costs and improves performance. The vast but low-margin retail business provides stable cash flow, a global logistics network, and a rich dataset that supports the high-margin technology core, which is the primary driver of shareholder value.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued acceleration in AWS revenue growth, major enterprise AI workload commitments (especially on Trainium chips), and expansion of AWS operating margins.
What will damage the thesis
A sustained deceleration in AWS growth, evidence of market share loss to competitors like Microsoft or Google in key AI workloads, or significant margin compression in AWS due to a price war.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term fluctuations in retail sales, seasonal variations in fulfillment costs, or news about specific product sales in the e-commerce business.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of AWS's re-acceleration, driven by AI demand. The growth rate has accelerated for several consecutive quarters, and management commentary suggests demand is outstripping supply, signaling continued near-term strength.
What AMZN Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2025 filings (the latest reported segment data)
North America
$426.3B TTM (59% of Total) · 7% MarginWhat It Is
Sells consumer products, digital media, and advertising services to consumers, sellers, vendors, and advertisers primarily in North America. This segment also includes subscription services like Amazon Prime.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for products and subscriptions due to selection, low prices, and fast delivery. Third-party sellers pay commissions and fulfillment fees to access Amazon's large customer base and logistics network. Advertisers pay to promote their products to this engaged audience.
Transactional retail sales, recurring subscription fees (Prime), and commissions/fees for third-party seller services and advertising.
Competition
Physical, e-commerce, and omnichannel retailers such as Walmart.
Competitors may have greater resources, longer histories, more customers, and greater brand recognition.
Principal competitive factors are selection, price, and convenience, including fast and reliable fulfillment.
International
$161.9B TTM (23% of Total) · 3% MarginWhat It Is
Sells consumer products, digital media, advertising, and subscriptions to customers in international markets.
Who Pays & How
Similar to the North America segment, consumers, sellers, and advertisers pay for products and services based on Amazon's value proposition of selection, price, and convenience in their local markets.
Transactional retail sales, recurring subscription fees (Prime), and commissions/fees for third-party seller services and advertising.
Competition
Global and local e-commerce and omnichannel retailers.
Local companies may have a better understanding of the local customer and more established brand names.
Focus on price, selection, and convenience, including fast shipping offers, adapted for international markets.
Amazon Web Services (AWS)
$128.7B TTM (18% of Total) · 35% MarginWhat It Is
Provides a broad set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and artificial intelligence/machine learning, to developers, start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and developers pay for AWS to access scalable, reliable, and secure cloud infrastructure without the need to own and operate their own data centers. They choose AWS for its broad functionality, strong security, and operational performance.
Primarily a usage-based, pay-as-you-go model where revenue is recognized as customers consume services. Some services are offered for a fixed quantity over a specified term.
Competition
Other large-scale cloud providers such as Microsoft and Alphabet (Google).
Competitors may have greater resources, longer histories, and more customers.
Broadest functionality, strongest security and operational performance, a large existing customer base, and custom silicon (e.g., Trainium) that offers a price-performance advantage.
AMZN Evolution: Price Return by Era
e.g., 2021-2022 · Retail Dominance
-47%
The business was defined by its massive North America and International retail segments, which constituted the vast majority of revenue. AWS was a significant and highly profitable segment, but its revenue scale was smaller, representing about 13-15% of the total.
e.g., 2023-2025 · The AI-Powered Infrastructure Era
+169%
AWS's growth re-accelerated, driven by the explosion in demand for generative AI. The segment's revenue grew to $128,725 million by 2025, and its operating income became the clear majority of the company's profits. The strategic focus shifted to building out AI capacity and leveraging custom silicon (Trainium2) as a key competitive differentiator.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is damaged. The price has broken key levels and the trend is no longer supportive. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction. NOTE: Volume character and price structure are diverging. The structural trend is not confirmed by institutional flow. This divergence typically resolves in the direction of volume, not price.
① Structure
-2
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Broken In Short Term · Golden Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Mixed
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Neutral Relative Strength
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Strong Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Falling
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
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8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Broadline Retail Resources |
| Chain Store Age |
| RetailWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/24/2026