Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $103.05 | Market Cap: $437.4 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $103.05Market Cap: $437.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 117x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 397x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 532x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 488x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 117x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 397x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 532x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 488x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NFLX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss Driven by Brazilian Tax Charge: Netflix shares tumbled significantly, between 12% and 17%, after reporting its third-quarter 2025 earnings. This substantial drop was primarily due to a one-time $619 million charge related to a Brazilian Supreme Court ruling on technology transfer taxes, which caused earnings per share (EPS) to fall significantly short of consensus estimates, despite revenue largely meeting expectations.
2. Concerns Over Potential Acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery: Netflix's stock experienced a decline of up to 6.7% as the company emerged as a top bidder for Warner Bros. Discovery's assets. This potential acquisition led to investor caution regarding intense competition with other bidders and possible regulatory scrutiny.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NFLX Return | 67% | 11% | -51% | 65% | 83% | 16% | 219% |
| Peers Return | 49% | 231% | -54% | 20% | -10% | 20% | 191% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NFLX Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 83% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 48% | 28% | 57% | 45% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NFLX Max Drawdown | -8% | -10% | -72% | -1% | -4% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -19% | -56% | -33% | -36% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AAPL, AMZN, FUBO, AMC, RDI. See NFLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NFLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 315.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 832 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 478 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AAPL, AMZN, FUBO, AMC, RDI
In The Past
Netflix's stock fell -75.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -75.9% loss requires a 315.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NFLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| 04302024 | NFLX | Netflix | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 37.9% | 105.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| 04302024 | NFLX | Netflix | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 37.9% | 105.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Netflix
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 53.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 219.7 |
| Rev LTM | 24,123 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,320 |
| FCF LTM | 4,546 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,623 |
| CFO LTM | 4,857 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,848 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 219.7 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 18.7 |
| P/E | 22.3 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7182025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4182025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10182024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4222024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7212023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4212023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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